Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [4] Core Views - The report highlights a significant increase in gold and silver prices due to lower-than-expected non-farm payroll data, leading to heightened expectations for interest rate cuts in the U.S. [1][34] - The outlook for gold and silver prices remains strong, with expectations of rising inflation and declining employment in the U.S. economy [1][34] - The report emphasizes the importance of upcoming economic data releases, particularly the CPI data on September 11 and the FOMC meeting on September 17 [1] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices reached a historical high, while silver prices hit a yearly high due to increased interest rate cut expectations following disappointing U.S. employment data [1][34] - The U.S. non-farm payroll for August was reported at 22,000, significantly below the expected 75,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.3% [1][34] - The market's expectation for a 50 basis point rate cut rose to 86% after the employment data release [1][34] - Key companies to watch include: Xinyi Silver Tin, Shengda Resources, and Zijin Mining [1] Industrial Metals - Copper prices are expected to rise due to macroeconomic easing and seasonal demand in September and October [2] - Global copper inventories increased by 43,800 tons, with notable increases in China and LME [2] - Chile's copper exports for August were reported at 176,430 tons, with significant exports to China [2] - The aluminum market is experiencing fluctuations due to domestic and international policies, with a theoretical operating capacity of 44.085 million tons in China [2] - Companies to focus on include: Luoyang Molybdenum, Nanshan Aluminum, and China Hongqiao [2] Energy Metals - Lithium prices are experiencing a downward trend, with industrial-grade lithium carbonate at 73,000 yuan/ton, down 6.3% [3] - Lithium production increased by 2% to 19,400 tons, with a utilization rate of 48% [3] - The demand for electric vehicles is expected to rise, with August sales of 1.1 million electric vehicles [3] - Companies to monitor include: Ganfeng Lithium, Tianqi Lithium, and Xizang Mining [3] Key Companies - The report lists several companies with investment ratings, including: - Shanjin International (Buy) [7] - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (Buy) [7] - Luoyang Molybdenum (Buy) [7] - China Hongqiao (Buy) [7] - Zhongtung High-tech (Buy) [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the U.S. labor market remains weak, with non-farm employment growth significantly below expectations, leading to increased market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2] - Non-farm employment in August increased by only 22,000, with an average of 27,000 over the past four months, indicating a concerning trend in job creation capacity [1] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.32%, the highest level since 2021, supporting the case for potential interest rate cuts [2] Group 2 - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have risen from approximately 60 basis points to 72 basis points, suggesting that the market anticipates three rate cuts of 25 basis points each during the remaining Federal Reserve meetings in 2023 [1] - The upcoming release of key economic data, including the annual benchmark revision of non-farm employment and CPI data, will be crucial in shaping future interest rate expectations [3] - There is uncertainty regarding the likelihood of rate cuts in October and December, with October having a higher probability compared to December [4] Group 3 - Following the non-farm data release, U.S. Treasury yields fell, the dollar weakened, and gold prices rose, indicating market concerns about economic slowdown overshadowing rate cut expectations [5] - The potential for a recession trade is increasing, but concerns about stagflation may take precedence, as the labor market and consumer spending show signs of weakness [5] - In a stagflation-like environment, gold may perform relatively well, while equity assets may experience increased volatility [6]

Core Viewpoint - The primary risk to the U.S. economy is identified as "stagflation," influenced by tariffs and immigration policies, which suppress both demand and supply in the short term, potentially leading to structural inflation in the medium term [1] Economic Indicators - Declining consumer confidence and reduced corporate investment willingness are evident, alongside signals from the bond market that reflect characteristics of "stagflation" [1] - Historical evidence suggests that "stagflation" is not merely a cyclical phenomenon but results from the interplay of policy, structural factors, and market expectations [1] Policy Implications - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts may provide temporary relief but are unlikely to alter the underlying structural factors contributing to the economic situation [1] Market Outlook - There is a need to be vigilant about potential risk spillovers in the U.S. economy and the associated volatility that financial markets may face as a result [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the biggest risk to the US economy remains "stagflation," driven by the dual impact of tariffs and immigration policies, which suppress both demand and supply in the short term and may lead to structural inflation in the medium term [1][10][22] - The US is entering a "high tariff, high interest rate" era, with recent data showing no new tariff reduction agreements since August, and tariffs on Indian imports increased to 50%. Tariff revenue is projected to exceed $300 billion this year, with future contributions estimated at around $4 trillion [1][5][10] - The tightening immigration policy is leading to a decline in labor supply and population growth, which is expected to pressure economic expansion. The Congressional Budget Office estimates a net increase of 7.3 million foreign citizens, but this influx has significantly decreased due to stricter policies [1][7][10] Group 2 - Recent economic and financial data indicate characteristics of "stagflation," with consumer confidence declining while inflation expectations rise. Reports from the University of Michigan and the Conference Board show a pessimistic outlook among consumers regarding the economy [11][12][14] - Manufacturing costs are rising, but investment willingness remains low, indicating a divergence that aligns with "stagflation" characteristics. The manufacturing PMI price index has increased, while capital expenditure intentions are still subdued [11][16][18] - The bond market signals a rise in implied inflation expectations while actual interest rates decline, suggesting investors anticipate lower real returns and demand higher inflation compensation [11][20] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve may lean towards interest rate cuts in response to rising employment pressures, but the persistence of inflation may complicate this process. Historical experiences indicate that "stagflation" is influenced by a combination of policy, structure, and market expectations [21][22] - Current challenges include a relatively loose fiscal policy, high deficits, increased tariffs, and a tightening labor market due to immigration policy changes, all of which may lead to more frequent supply shocks [22]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the biggest risk to the US economy remains "quasi-stagflation," driven by the dual impact of tariffs and immigration policies, which suppress both demand and supply in the short term and may lead to structural inflation in the medium term [1][2] - Recent data indicates that the US is entering a "high tariff, high interest rate" era, with tariffs on imports from India raised to 50% and tariff revenues expected to exceed $300 billion this year, potentially contributing around $4 trillion in the future [4][6][10] - The tightening of immigration policies is leading to a decline in labor supply, which is expected to pressure economic expansion and reduce consumer demand, with estimates suggesting a potential GDP growth decline of 0.81 percentage points by 2025 [10][11] Group 2 - Recent economic and financial data show characteristics of "quasi-stagflation," including a divergence between consumer confidence and inflation expectations, with consumer confidence declining while inflation expectations rise [12][13] - Manufacturing costs are increasing while investment willingness remains low, indicating a combination of rising costs and subdued investment, which aligns with "quasi-stagflation" characteristics [18][20] - Bond market signals indicate rising implied inflation expectations alongside declining real interest rates, suggesting that investors are anticipating lower real returns while seeking higher inflation compensation [22][24] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve may lean towards interest rate cuts in response to rising employment pressures, but the persistence of inflation may complicate this process, leading to a more gradual and less significant reduction than the market anticipates [25][26] - Historical examples of "stagflation" highlight that it is not merely a cyclical phenomenon but results from a combination of policy, structural, and market expectations, with current US challenges including high fiscal deficits, elevated tariffs, and tightening immigration policies [26]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market has entered a phase of consolidation since mid-August, showing signs of a peak correction, particularly in the technology and AI sectors, which had previously driven market gains [1] - As of September 3, the S&P 500 index remains near historical highs with a year-to-date increase of 9.88%, while the Nasdaq index, heavily weighted in tech stocks, has risen over 11.5% this year [1] - Analysts warn that despite strong earnings from tech stocks and higher-than-expected capital expenditures from tech giants, multiple indicators suggest a lack of supportive cash flow for the market in September, alongside risks of "stagflation" in the U.S. economy [1][2] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs indicates that if the market enters a downward trend in the coming week, CTA models could sell $22.25 billion in global equities, including $4.84 billion in U.S. stocks; if the market declines significantly over the next month, forced sales could reach $217.92 billion globally, with $73.69 billion in U.S. stocks [2] - The correlation between CTA positions and market momentum is significant, as CTA funds follow systematic trading strategies that tend to amplify market trends [2] - Historical data shows that September typically sees increased market volatility and weaker stock performance, which may trigger concentrated liquidation by CTA strategies [2] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's stance on future interest rate cuts remains a key risk for the U.S. stock market, despite the market pricing in a potential rate cut in September [2][3] - The Fed's recent economic survey indicates price increases related to tariff policies, with many American households experiencing wage growth that fails to keep pace with rising prices, leading to stagnant or declining consumer spending [2] - Analysts highlight that the U.S. is facing a "stagflation" scenario, with weakening economic indicators across various sectors, and inflationary pressures that may complicate the Fed's decision to resume rate cuts [3]

Macro News - The latest report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that job openings in July were 7.181 million, which is below expectations, indicating a gradual weakening in hiring demand among U.S. companies [1] - Following the data release, the U.S. dollar index experienced a sharp decline, benefiting precious metals priced in dollars, such as gold [1] - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller stated that the Fed should begin lowering interest rates this month and continue to do so in the coming months [1] - ISM data indicates that U.S. manufacturing activity has contracted for the sixth consecutive month in August, with factory output metrics falling back into contraction territory for the first time in three months [1] Institutional Perspectives - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have resurfaced due to ongoing issues related to Governor Cook, leading to increased market volatility and heightened risk aversion [1] - The combination of moderate inflation rebound, a cooling labor market, and dovish comments from Fed officials has solidified market expectations for a rate cut in September [1] - There is an increasing likelihood of the U.S. entering a "stagflation-like" scenario due to the cooling labor market and potential tariff impacts [1] - Precious metals have achieved significant technical breakthroughs and are expected to maintain a strong upward trend at high levels [1] - Attention is needed on upcoming employment data from the U.S. to assess the health of the U.S. economy [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - Multiple factors such as the continuous fermentation of Fed Governor Cook's incident, the rebound of US PCE in July in line with expectations, and dovish remarks from Fed officials have strengthened the market's expectation of a rate cut in September, and the possibility of the US entering a "stagflation - like" situation is increasing, leading to the strong rise of precious metals and the expectation of a continued high - level and strong - side shock in the future [2]. - The macro - environment has both positive and negative factors for the non - ferrous metals market. Policy changes in the non - ferrous metals industry, production and supply situations, and consumption trends vary by metal type, affecting their respective price trends and providing different trading strategies [2][5][10] Summary by Metal Type Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Market Review**: London gold rose for five consecutive days, hitting a new high since April 22, up 0.83% to $3475.45 per ounce; London silver broke through the $40 mark for the first time since September 2011, up 2.48% to $40.674 per ounce. Affected by the external market, Shanghai gold rose 0.86% to 801.58 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver rose 2.46% to 9836 yuan per kilogram [2]. - **Important Information**: Trump may declare a national housing emergency this fall, and the Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September and October [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: Multiple factors strengthen the market's expectation of a rate cut in September, and the possibility of the US entering a "stagflation - like" situation is increasing, so precious metals are expected to continue a high - level and strong - side shock [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the long - position of precious metals, consider holding the previous long positions based on the 5 - day moving average, and pay attention to the resistance at the $3500 integer mark of London gold. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [3] Copper - **Market Review**: The night - session of Shanghai copper 2510 contract closed at 79660 yuan per ton, down 0.06%, and the LME closed at $9875 per ton, down 0.11%. LME inventory decreased by 25 tons to 15.88 million tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 2617 tons to 27.78 million tons [5]. - **Important Information**: The US Treasury Secretary commented on the Fed, and the German economic minister called for a strategy to deal with China's large - scale procurement of scrap copper [5]. - **Logic Analysis**: The macro - environment strengthens the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut. The supply of electrolytic copper is relatively sufficient, but the deliverable supply is relatively tight. Terminal consumption is weakening, but the substitution of refined copper for scrap copper is prominent [5][6]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the long - position, expect high - level consolidation. For arbitrage, consider cross - market positive arbitrage, with a fast - in and fast - out approach for virtual - position positive arbitrage. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [7][8] Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2510 contract rose 6 yuan to 2998 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions were mostly stable, with a decrease in Xinjiang [10]. - **Important Information**: An electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang tendered for alumina, with a lower winning price. The national alumina operating capacity decreased slightly, and inventories increased [10][11][12]. - **Logic Analysis**: Spot trading has become more frequent, but the spot price is expected to decline. The overall supply remains high, and inventory is expected to continue to increase [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the long - position, expect the alumina price to maintain a weak trend. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [13] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The night - session of the cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 10 yuan to 20285 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions were mostly stable, with an increase in the East China region [15]. - **Important Information**: Policy changes in the recycled aluminum industry are affecting some enterprises. Social inventories of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased, and imports decreased [15][16][17]. - **Logic Analysis**: Policy changes have affected the recycled aluminum industry, with a shortage of scrap aluminum. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the supply is tightening. Alloy ingot prices are expected to be stable and slightly stronger [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the long - position, expect the price to fluctuate at a high level with the aluminum price. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [18][19] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The night - session of Shanghai aluminum 2510 contract rose 20 yuan to 20690 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions decreased. The price of thermal coal also decreased [21]. - **Important Information**: China's manufacturing PMI improved slightly, and aluminum ingot inventories increased. Two large - scale electrolytic aluminum projects are under construction [22]. - **Logic Analysis**: The macro - environment has both positive and negative factors. The output of aluminum rods increased, and the inventory of aluminum ingots in factories decreased. The downstream processing industry is recovering [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the long - position, expect the aluminum price to fluctuate with the external market in the short term. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [25] Zinc - **Market Review**: The LME zinc rose 0.68% to $2833 per ton, and Shanghai zinc 2510 remained unchanged at 22195 yuan per ton. Spot trading in Shanghai was light [27]. - **Important Information**: Domestic zinc inventories increased, and a zinc smelter in Guangxi will undergo maintenance [27]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of zinc ore is sufficient, but the output of refined zinc may decrease in September. The downstream consumption in North China is affected by environmental protection, while that in South and East China is improving [27][28]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the long - position, expect the zinc price to be stronger in a certain range. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [29] Lead - **Market Review**: The LME lead rose 0.5% to $2007 per ton, and Shanghai lead 2510 rose 0.53% to 16930 yuan per ton. Spot trading was weak [30]. - **Important Information**: A new standard for electric bicycles was implemented on September 1, 2025 [30]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of lead concentrate is tight, and the production of lead smelters is decreasing. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the long - position, expect the lead price to rise slightly. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [31] Nickel - **Market Review**: The LME nickel rose $70 to $15475 per ton, and Shanghai nickel NI2510 rose 630 yuan to 123400 yuan per ton. The premium of different nickel products decreased [34]. - **Important Information**: Demonstrations in Indonesia have not affected the nickel industry for now. New RKAB quota regulations will be implemented in September, and a Chinese company won a nickel mine project in the Solomon Islands [35]. - **Logic Analysis**: The macro - environment is variable in September. The riots in Indonesia may affect market sentiment. The supply and demand in China are relatively balanced in the short term, and the price is expected to be stronger in a shock [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the long - position, expect the nickel price to be stronger in a shock. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [36][37] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The stainless steel SS2510 contract rose 130 yuan to 13005 yuan per ton. Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel are given [39]. - **Important Information**: Nickel prices are rising, and the global stainless steel output in the first half of 2025 is announced [39]. - **Logic Analysis**: The rise in nickel prices drives up the price of stainless steel. The inventory of stainless steel decreased slightly, and there is an optimistic expectation for the peak season in September [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the long - position, expect the stainless steel price to be stronger in a shock. For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach [40] Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures rose 0.89% to 8495 yuan per ton, and most spot prices were stable or slightly decreased [42]. - **Important Information**: A silicon - related standardization seminar will be held in September [43]. - **Logic Analysis**: The demand for industrial silicon from the organic silicon industry is expected to weaken, while the demand from polysilicon may increase. The supply is increasing, and the price may rebound in the short term [43]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the long - position, expect a short - term rebound. For arbitrage, consider reverse arbitrage between the 11th and 12th contracts. For options, there is no strategy provided [43] Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures rose 6.03% to 52285 yuan per ton. Spot prices of different types of polysilicon showed different trends [45]. - **Important Information**: Domestic polysilicon prices rose [47]. - **Logic Analysis**: Although the output of polysilicon increases in September, the limited sales by enterprises and the increase in silicon wafer production provide upward momentum for the price [47]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the long - position, hold long positions and partially take profits near the previous high. For arbitrage, consider reverse arbitrage between the 11th and 12th contracts. For options, sell out - of - the - money put options and buy call options [47] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate 2511 contract fell 1860 yuan to 75560 yuan per ton. Spot prices of electric and industrial lithium carbonate decreased [49]. - **Important Information**: Porsche adjusted its battery business, a battery factory in China was put into production, and Tianqi Lithium prepared for the industrialization of lithium sulfide [49][50][52]. - **Logic Analysis**: The production of batteries and cathodes is increasing in September, but the output of lithium carbonate may be affected by raw materials. The price is looking for support, and opportunities to go long after stabilization should be noted [52]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the long - position, consider buying after the price stabilizes. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [52] Tin - **Market Review**: The Shanghai tin 2510 contract rose 0.2% to 274320 yuan per ton. Spot prices decreased, and trading inquiries increased [54]. - **Important Information**: The US Treasury Secretary commented on the Fed [54]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. The LME inventory increased, and attention should be paid to future production resumption and demand recovery [55]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the long - position, expect the tin price to fluctuate. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [56]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Precious Metals Derivatives Daily Report [2] - Date: September 2, 2025 [2] - Research Institute: Commodity Research Institute, Galaxy Futures [2] - Researchers: Che Hongyun, Wang Luchen [2] Group 2: Market Review - Precious Metals Market: London Gold reached a new high of $3,508.69 but fell back to around $3,479; London Silver touched $40.848 and then dropped to around $40.4. SHFE Gold closed up 1.21% at 804.32 yuan/gram, and SHFE Silver closed up 2.33% at 9,824 yuan/kg [3] - Dollar Index: Opened lower and closed higher, ending a 5 - day decline and standing back at around 98.25 [3] - 10 - Year US Treasury Yield: Gapped up and traded around 4.277% [4] - RMB Exchange Rate: Depreciated against the US dollar, falling to around 7.1478 [5] Group 3: Important Information - Trump Administration: Trump may declare a national housing emergency this autumn, and Beisente is confident that the Supreme Court will support Trump's tariff policy. Milan may take office before the September Fed meeting [6] - Fed Watch: The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in September is 10.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 89.6%. In October, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 4.9%, a 25 - basis - point cumulative cut is 47.3%, and a 50 - basis - point cumulative cut is 47.9% [6] Group 4: Logical Analysis - Market Concerns: The Cook incident has intensified market concerns. The US July PCE rebounded in line with expectations, and Fed officials' dovish remarks strengthened the market's expectation of a September rate cut [7] - Economic Outlook: The US may face a "stagflation - like" situation due to a cooling labor market and potential tariff impacts, leading to a strong rise in precious metals and an expected high - level and strong oscillation in the future [9] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Hold existing long positions based on the 5 - day moving average and pay attention to the resistance at the $3,500 level of London Gold [10] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [11] - Options: Wait and see [12] Group 6: Data Reference - Dollar Index and Precious Metals: Presented the historical trends of the dollar index against London Gold and London Silver [14][15] - Real Yield and Precious Metals: Showed the relationship between real yields and London Gold and London Silver [16][17][22] - Domestic and Foreign Futures: Displayed the trends of domestic and foreign gold and silver futures [18][19][21] - Futures and Spot: Illustrated the price differences between futures and spot gold and silver [24][25] - Domestic and Foreign Price Differences: Presented the price differences between domestic and foreign gold and silver [28][29][31] - Gold - Silver Ratio: Showed the gold - silver ratios on the SHFE and Comex [38][39] - ETF Holdings: Presented the holdings of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF [40][41][42] - Futures Positions: Displayed the positions of gold and silver futures [43][44] - Futures Inventories: Showed the inventories of gold and silver futures [48][45] - Trading Volume: Presented the trading volumes of SHFE Gold and SHFE Silver [46][47] - TD Data: Included the deferred fees and delivery volumes of gold and silver TD [50][51][56] - Treasury Yields and Inflation: Showed the relationships among nominal interest rates, inflation expectations, and real interest rates, as well as US Treasury yields [54]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the U.S. economy is showing signs of downward pressure, with non-farm payrolls exceeding expectations but showing structural weaknesses, and inflation rising at a moderate pace [3][5][71] - The U.S. stock market reached new historical highs in August, while U.S. Treasury yields significantly rebounded, with 30-year, 20-year, 10-year, and 2-year Treasury yields changing by +3, -14, -35, and -27 basis points respectively [4][14] - The report forecasts that the 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury yields may reach annual lows of 3.6% and 3.2% respectively, as the market undergoes deleveraging and the "de-dollarization" process comes to a temporary halt [3][7][110] Group 2 - The issuance of U.S. Treasuries in August totaled $2.26 trillion, down from $2.51 trillion in the previous month, with a significant increase in short-term Treasury bill (T-Bill) issuance [22][23] - The demand for U.S. Treasuries has shown signs of recovery, although overseas investor demand has weakened due to lower yields compared to European and Japanese bonds [24][25] - The report highlights that the Treasury Department is expected to maintain its current debt financing structure, focusing on short-term T-Bill issuance while keeping long-term debt issuance at lower levels [25][26] Group 3 - The macroeconomic environment for the U.S. Treasury market is characterized by a cautious approach from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts, with a clear signal for a potential rate cut in September [5][71] - The report notes that the labor market is showing signs of weakness, with non-farm payrolls for July recorded at 73,000, significantly below the expected 104,000, indicating a potential shift in employment dynamics [77][85] - The report emphasizes that inflationary pressures are expected to remain moderate, with the CPI and core CPI showing year-on-year increases of 2.7% and 3.1% respectively, suggesting limited upward pressure on inflation in the near term [79][82]