Core Viewpoint - The Thai Baht is expected to perform poorly due to potential economic slowdown and other risks [1] Economic Outlook - Thailand's economic growth may slow down, impacting the performance of the Thai Baht [1] - The Constitutional Court's suspension of the Prime Minister could delay the passage of the national budget, potentially leading to reduced fiscal support and further economic slowdown [1] Currency Forecast - Mitsubishi UFJ forecasts the USD/THB exchange rate to be 33.20 in Q3 and 33.50 in Q4 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Mexico has decided to cut the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points for the fourth consecutive time, lowering it from 8.5% to 8%, marking the lowest level since 2022. This decision reflects a shift in focus from inflation control to concerns about economic growth slowdown [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decision - The decision was made amidst internal disagreements within the board, with a 4-1 vote, where Vice Governor Jonathan Heath cast the only dissenting vote advocating for no change in rates [1]. - The current rate cut indicates a preference for a more accommodative policy to stimulate economic activity despite ongoing inflation pressures [1][2]. Group 2: Future Outlook - Unlike previous meetings, the latest statement did not explicitly indicate the possibility of further 50 basis point cuts, suggesting a potential slowdown in future easing measures [1]. - Analysts predict that if inflation continues to decline and economic data remains weak, the benchmark rate could drop to 7.5% or lower by the end of the year, although any rebound in inflation or adverse external conditions could limit further easing [2].

美联储纽约联储主席威廉姆斯近日的讲话，揭示了美国经济当前所面临的微妙转向：一方面是持续的价格压力，另一方面却是增长动能 的显著削弱。在他看来，贸易政策所引发的结构性冲击已开始对经济形成双重压制——既推高了成本，也削弱了劳动力供给和消费支 出。尤其是在特朗普政府维持高关税政策背景下，市场对"滞胀"风险的担忧已不再只是学术层面的猜测。 威廉姆斯预测，今年美国GDP增长将放缓至1%左右，失业率也将从当前的4.2%上升至4.5%。这对一个刚从疫情冲击中走出的经济体而言 无疑是一种警告信号。过去两年，美国经济的复苏更多得益于消费支出的强劲反弹和就业市场的快速修复，而如今这些支撑正在逐步减 弱。他特别提到关税政策对企业成本结构的改变、对移民供给的抑制以及对投资前景不确定性的增加，这些因素都在综合作用于当前的 增长路径。 由于关税带来的成本推动效应，威廉姆斯预计通胀率将在今年上升至3%，远高于美联储2%的政策目标。尽管他表示通胀将在未来两年逐 步回落，但这一判断本身也建立在诸多前提假设之上，例如能源价格稳定、全球供应链修复以及消费预期受控。一旦任何一个变量出现 偏离，通胀回落路径可能变得更长更曲折。 DLSM外汇认为在高利 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the COMEX gold market and the economic outlook provided by Federal Reserve official John Williams, highlighting the expected slowdown in U.S. economic growth and rising inflation due to trade tariffs [2]. Group 1: COMEX Gold Market Analysis - As of June 25, the COMEX gold price has slightly increased to $3344.50 per ounce, reflecting a 0.18% rise [1]. - The gold price opened at $3338.10 per ounce, reached a high of $3349.50, and a low of $3334.60 during the trading session [1]. - Short-term resistance levels for gold are identified between $3420 and $3430, while support levels are noted between $3290 and $3300 [2]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - John Williams from the Federal Reserve anticipates a significant slowdown in U.S. economic growth to around 1% this year, influenced by uncertainties and trade tariffs [2]. - The unemployment rate is projected to rise from 4.2% to 4.5% by the end of the year [2]. - Inflation is expected to increase to 3% due to Trump's tariff policies, before gradually returning to the 2% target over the next two years [2]. - Williams emphasized the appropriateness of maintaining a moderately restrictive monetary policy stance to achieve maximum employment and price stability [2].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Williams predicts a slowdown in U.S. economic growth and an increase in inflation this year, primarily due to the impact of trade tariffs [1] Economic Growth - U.S. economic growth is expected to slow significantly to around 1% this year [1] - The unemployment rate is projected to rise from the current 4.2% to 4.5% by the end of the year [1] Inflation - Inflation rate is anticipated to rise to 3% as a result of Trump's tariff policies, before gradually easing to the 2% target over the next two years [1] Monetary Policy - Williams emphasizes that maintaining a moderately restrictive monetary policy stance is appropriate for achieving maximum employment and price stability [1] - The current interest rate stance allows the Federal Reserve to closely analyze new data and assess the evolving economic outlook [1]

Core Viewpoint - The slowdown in labor force growth is expected to hinder economic growth, with immigration being a contributing factor to this trend [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the economy is slowing down this year [1] - Labor force growth is experiencing a deceleration, which will impact overall economic performance [1] - Immigration is identified as one of the reasons for the slowdown in labor force growth [1]

美联储主席鲍威尔：美联储的预测已转向预期经济增长放缓、通胀水平上升。 ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's FOMC has indicated a slowdown in economic growth, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate and inflation rates slightly above the expectations set in March [1] Economic Growth - Economic growth is projected to decelerate, reflecting broader economic trends [1] Unemployment Rate - The unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly, indicating potential challenges in the labor market [1] Inflation Rate - Inflation rates are anticipated to be marginally higher than the forecasts made in March, suggesting ongoing inflationary pressures [1]

植田和男还表示，意识到食品价格上涨对家庭造成了影响。食品通胀可能是暂时的供应冲击，但可能影 响基础通胀。食品价格上涨和中东冲突如果持续下去，可能会对趋势通胀产生二次影响，将密切关注中 东局势的动向。 日本央行面临着在持续的通胀压力和经济增长放缓之间取得平衡的挑战。作为日本家庭主食的大米价格 在过去一年里翻了一番，突显出通胀压力的严重性。自2022年4月以来，核心通胀率一直未缓和，这给 加息带来了越来越大的压力。然而，经济增长明显恶化，第一季度GDP年化收缩0.2%。且由于通胀上 升，实际工资同比下降1.8%，这可能抑制消费者支出，进一步制约经济增长。 盛宝银行表示，由于市场已经为今年余下时间计入了略高于10个基点的日本央行加息预期，日本央行的 此次会议没有引发太大波澜。在尚不清楚美日贸易协议具体内容的情况下，日本央行也难以做出明确预 测，日本央行可能会提高对通胀的担忧。 日本央行行长植田和男在政策会议后的新闻发布会上表示，日本的通胀预期仍未稳定在2%的目标水 平。 随着贸易政策效应进一步显现，必须关注贸易政策对金融市场、外汇市场、日本经济和物价的影响。穆 迪分析经济学家Stefan Angrick说，美国提高 ...

Group 1 - The core concern of the European Central Bank (ECB) has shifted from inflation to the slowdown of economic growth [1] Group 2 - The ECB's focus on economic growth indicates a potential change in monetary policy direction [1] - This shift may impact investment strategies and market sentiment across Europe [1]