Group 1 - The core point of the news is the election of Anutin as the new Prime Minister of Thailand, supported by the People's Party, which holds nearly one-third of the seats in the lower house, leading to a minority government situation [1][2][4] - Anutin received 311 votes out of 490 total votes in the lower house, easily surpassing the required majority [2] - The People's Party has agreed to support Anutin under the condition that the new government must dissolve the lower house within four months, leading to new elections expected in February or March of next year [3][4] Group 2 - Anutin's leadership is seen as a potential opportunity to stabilize Thailand's political situation, although challenges remain due to the minority government structure [1][6] - The political landscape in Thailand is characterized by frequent power struggles and a lack of trust among political players, complicating Anutin's ability to govern effectively [6][7] - Economic growth in Thailand is under pressure, with forecasts indicating a growth rate of only 2% by 2025, significantly lower than neighboring countries [7]

Core Viewpoint - Market investors may initially react positively to the Federal Reserve's potential dovish stance, but historical trends suggest that declining yields indicating significant economic slowdown could be negative for the stock market [1] Group 1 - Miller Tabak's Chief Market Strategist, Matt Maley, highlights that typically, stock market investors feel excited about a potentially dovish Federal Reserve [1] - The initial positive reaction from investors may not hold if falling yields signal a substantial slowdown in economic growth, which would be detrimental to the stock market [1] - The market's performance will be closely monitored after the cash market opens to assess the actual investor sentiment [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs indicates that the "Goldilocks" summer market is coming to an end, with signs of slowing economic growth in the U.S. leading to increased market volatility [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Christian Mueller-Glissmann, head of asset allocation research, notes that September typically shows weak performance, and this year's post-summer market may be particularly challenging [1] - There is uncertainty about whether the previous growth momentum can be maintained [1] Group 2: Volatility Expectations - Mueller-Glissmann expects the Volatility Index (VIX) to rise, as it has fallen to its lowest level since December of the previous year [1]

Group 1 - The recent significant downward revision of non-farm payroll data has intensified the Federal Reserve's concerns about economic growth, while the tail risks of inflation are decreasing [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to shift its focus from inflation to balancing its dual mandate of employment and inflation, with a forecast of three rate cuts totaling 75 basis points starting in September [1] - The current high real yields provide substantial room for the Federal Reserve to lower rates, maintaining a restrictive policy even after three cuts [1] Group 2 - The company maintains a neutral outlook on U.S. Treasuries, investment-grade bonds, and high-yield bonds due to their attractive yields [1] - High-quality bonds are viewed as important tools for portfolio risk diversification, helping to hedge against macro risks arising from economic slowdown [1][6] - Strategies include locking in attractive yields before rate cuts, extending duration preferences due to the highest level of the yield curve spread in three years, and utilizing high-quality bonds to mitigate growth slowdown risks [3][4][6]

Core Viewpoint - Songyuan reported a decline in revenue for Q2 2025, with a comprehensive sales figure of 2,654 billion KRW, a 3.0% decrease compared to the same period last year, while the first half of 2025 saw a 2.2% increase in sales compared to 2024 [1] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Songyuan recorded a loss of 1.481 billion KRW, significantly lower than the profit of 10.575 billion KRW in the same quarter last year [1] - For the first half of 2025, the profit was 3.376 billion KRW, down from 17.237 billion KRW in the previous year [1] Market Challenges - The company continues to face challenges from Q1 2025, including weak global demand, geopolitical uncertainties, and ongoing pressure on profit margins [1] - Macroeconomic factors such as geopolitical restrictions and regulatory changes have consistently impacted market demand [1] - Increased uncertainty in U.S. trade policies and currency fluctuations have intensified competition in key markets, particularly in Asia and Europe [1] Future Outlook - Songyuan anticipates a slowdown in overall economic growth, with continued pressure on profit margins due to oversupply, leading to demand potentially falling short of previous expectations [1] - The company plans to monitor global developments closely and believes it can address emerging challenges while providing reliable product supply to customers [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, which is expected to provide critical insights into the future path of U.S. monetary policy amid political pressures and mixed economic signals [3][6][15]. Group 1: Market Expectations - Investors are anticipating a rate cut from the Federal Reserve in the coming weeks, which has driven stock markets, particularly interest-sensitive sectors, to historical highs [5][8]. - The federal funds futures market indicates a probability of over 92% for a 25 basis point rate cut at the September meeting, with expectations for at least one more cut this year [8]. - Housing sector stocks, such as PulteGroup, Lennar, and D.R. Horton, have seen price increases ranging from 4.2% to 8.8%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 1% rise [8]. Group 2: Political Pressures - Powell faces intense political pressure from the Trump administration, which has criticized him for not cutting rates sooner and is reportedly considering potential replacements [11][12]. - The political interference complicates the Federal Reserve's decision-making process, as Powell is cautious about the inflationary effects of the administration's tariff policies [12]. Group 3: Economic Data - Mixed economic data adds to the complexity of the situation, with inflation pressures remaining stubborn. The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.3% in July, the largest increase since January, with a year-over-year rate of 3.1% [14]. - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with only 73,000 jobs added in July and significant downward revisions to previous months' data [14]. Group 4: Independence and Legacy - Powell is expected to focus on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework review during his speech, which is seen as a key strategy to defend the central bank's long-term independence [15][16]. - The potential semantic shift in describing employment conditions may provide the Fed with more flexibility in adjusting rates based on varying economic conditions [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole conference is anticipated to provide critical insights into the future path of U.S. monetary policy, amidst significant political pressure and economic challenges [1][3]. Group 1: Market Expectations - Investors are widely expecting a rate cut from the Federal Reserve in the coming weeks, which has driven stock markets, particularly interest-sensitive sectors, to historical highs [1]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the September meeting is over 92%, with expectations for at least one more cut within the year [2]. Group 2: Economic Challenges - Powell faces a complex economic situation, balancing rising inflation due to tariff policies against signs of a cooling labor market and risks of economic slowdown [1][3]. - Recent economic data shows persistent inflation pressures, with the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 0.3% month-over-month in July, the largest increase since January, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) surging 0.9%, the highest monthly increase in over three years [5]. Group 3: Political Pressure - The Trump administration has intensified its criticism of Powell for not cutting rates quickly enough, creating a challenging environment for the Fed's decision-making [2][3]. - Historical precedents of political interference in monetary policy, such as during the Nixon administration, highlight the potential risks of maintaining low rates in the face of rising inflation [3]. Group 4: Fed's Independence - Powell's upcoming speech is expected to focus on the Fed's monetary policy framework review, which is crucial for maintaining the central bank's long-term independence [6][7]. - Adjustments to the policy framework may establish guiding principles that extend beyond Powell's tenure, addressing how to respond to supply shocks and balancing full employment with price stability [6].

Core Viewpoint - UBS strategist Bhanu Baweja has raised the S&P 500 index target for the end of 2025 to 6100 points and set the target for the end of 2026 at 6800 points, indicating a positive long-term outlook despite short-term economic challenges [1] Economic Performance - The U.S. economy and corporate performance are currently strong, contributing to the optimistic projections for the S&P 500 index [1] - Tariff risks have eased, further supporting the positive outlook for the market [1] Future Projections - UBS anticipates that the S&P 500 index will be below its current level by the end of 2025 due to expected economic growth slowdown, followed by a recovery by the end of 2026 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the nomination of a temporary Fed governor by the US President has boosted market expectations of interest - rate cuts, weakening the US dollar index. However, the 10 - year US Treasury auction was unexpectedly weak, leading to higher Treasury yields. The implementation of the US "reciprocal tariff" has triggered risk - aversion sentiment, cooling global risk appetite. Domestically, China's manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in economic growth. Trade deficit has decreased, and net exports' contribution to the economy has weakened. Policy support for child - rearing may boost consumption, and the extension of the China - US tariff truce by 90 days has reduced short - term tariff uncertainties. The expectation of a Fed rate cut has opened up space for domestic monetary policy and led to RMB appreciation, increasing domestic risk appetite [3][4]. - Different asset classes have different outlooks: stocks are expected to oscillate strongly at high levels in the short term; bonds are expected to oscillate and correct at high levels; different commodity sectors have varying trends, with some being more volatile and others more stable [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: The US dollar index is weakening, US Treasury yields are rising, and risk - aversion sentiment is increasing due to tariff policies. Domestically: Economic growth is slowing, trade deficit is decreasing, and policies are supporting consumption. The extension of the tariff truce and Fed rate - cut expectations are affecting domestic risk appetite [3]. Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as rare earths, precious metals, and semiconductors, the domestic stock market is rising. The short - term macro - upward drive has strengthened, and investors should focus on China - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies. Short - term cautious observation is recommended [4]. Precious Metals - On Thursday, precious metals rose slightly. Trade tensions and weak US economic data, such as poor non - farm payrolls and rising initial jobless claims, have increased the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September to over 90%. The inflation rebound has made the stagflation feature of the US economy more obvious. Precious metals are expected to remain in a slightly strong oscillating pattern in the short term [5]. Black Metals - **Steel**: On Thursday, the domestic steel spot market declined slightly, and demand continued to weaken. Steel inventory increased, and apparent consumption decreased. Supply was high due to high steel mill profits. Steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [7]. - **Iron Ore**: On Thursday, iron ore prices weakened. Iron - water production is expected to decline further, and if northern region production restrictions are implemented, ore demand will weaken. Supply has some fluctuations, and iron ore prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [7]. Glass - On Thursday, the glass futures contract oscillated weakly. Supply pressure is high, but there are expectations of production cuts due to anti - involution policies. Demand from the real - estate industry is weak, and glass prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [8][9]. Ferrous Alloys - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Thursday, prices continued to weaken. Demand from the steel industry is okay. Production in some regions is expected to increase, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [8]. - **Soda Ash**: On Thursday, the soda - ash futures contract oscillated weakly. Supply is in an oversupply situation, demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [8]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: German industrial output declined, and new US tariffs have increased global economic pressure. Copper inventory is at a high level, and terminal demand may weaken [10]. - **Aluminum**: Boosted by the expectation of a Fed rate cut, LME aluminum previously led the rise but has now slowed. Fundamentally, domestic and LME inventories are increasing, and short - term upward space is limited [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Waste - aluminum supply is tight, production costs are rising, and it is in the demand off - season. Prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term but with limited upward space [11]. - **Tin**: Supply - side开工率 has increased significantly, but demand is weak, especially in the photovoltaic industry. Inventories are increasing, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Thursday, the lithium - carbonate futures contract rose significantly. Market concerns about production suspension have increased price volatility, and cautious observation is recommended [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Thursday, the industrial - silicon futures contract rose. The increase in coking - coal prices may drive the price, and it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [14]. - **Polysilicon**: On Thursday, the polysilicon futures contract declined. The photovoltaic industry has anti - involution expectations, and the spot price provides support. With increasing warehouse receipts, prices are expected to oscillate at high levels in the short term [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market is waiting for a potential meeting between the US and Russian presidents, and oil prices are falling. Oil prices will continue to oscillate widely, and an oversupply situation may occur at the end of the year [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: It is testing the key resistance level. Port inventory is slightly decreasing, but supply pressure will increase in the future, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [16]. - **Asphalt**: Crude - oil price decline has weakened cost support. Inventory is neutral, and demand is weak. It will continue to oscillate weakly [16]. - **PX**: Due to plant shutdowns, demand has decreased slightly. The supply - demand pattern is still tight, and it will oscillate in the short term, waiting for changes in PTA plants and terminal orders [16]. - **PTA**: Processing fees are low, leading to new plant shutdowns. Spot trading is weak, and downstream demand is slowly recovering. The upside space is limited [16]. - **Short - fiber**: Affected by the decline in crude - oil prices and sector resonance, short - fiber prices are falling. Inventory is accumulating, and it may continue to be weak in the medium term [17]. - **Methanol**: The anti - involution sentiment has cooled, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to supply - demand pressure [17]. - **PP**: The anti - involution sentiment has cooled, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to strong supply and weak demand [17]. - **LLDPE**: Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [18]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: Overnight, CBOT soybeans rose. US soybean export sales in the week ending July 31 were higher than expected [19]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: Domestic soybean - meal spot prices are expected to oscillate around 2900 yuan/ton. Rapeseed - meal prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [19]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: Soybean - oil spot trading has improved, and there are opportunities for long - soybean - oil and short - palm - oil arbitrage. Rapeseed - oil fundamentals are stable [20][21]. - **Fats and Oils**: CBOT soybean - oil futures fell, and BMD palm - oil futures rose. Malaysia's palm - oil production and inventory increased in July, and exports were weak. The domestic short - term soybean - palm oil spread may rebound [21]. - **Corn**: Corn futures are falling, and spot prices are weak. Supply is expected to be sufficient in August, and high basis provides some support [21]. - **Pigs**: Farmers are reluctant to sell at low prices, and slaughterhouse orders are expected to increase after the Beginning of Autumn. Pig prices may stabilize [22].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points from 4.25% to 4%, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy amid economic challenges [4][16]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Decision - The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 5 to 4 in favor of the rate cut, marking the first time in 28 years that a two-round vote was necessary to reach a decision [5][10]. - The decision reflects significant internal divisions within the Bank regarding how to address the dual challenges of slowing economic growth and rising inflation [7][10]. Economic Context - The UK economy is experiencing signs of weakness, with a reported loss of 185,000 jobs since the announcement of increased employer wage taxes and minimum wage by the Labour government [7]. - Despite a slight upward revision of the 2025 economic growth forecast to 1.25%, officials describe the overall economic situation as "still sluggish" [8]. Inflation Outlook - Inflation is expected to rise to 4% in September, higher than the previous forecast of 3.7%, driven by food price increases [7][16]. - The MPC remains vigilant about potential second-round inflation effects, particularly concerning wage pressures and consumer price inflation [7][16]. Future Monetary Policy - The MPC indicated that future rate cuts will depend on the progress made in reducing core inflation pressures [9][17]. - The market anticipates another rate cut by the end of the year, with projections suggesting a further decline to around 3.5% [9]. Market Reaction - Following the announcement, the UK stock market continued to decline, while the British pound appreciated [13].