Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has initiated a rate cut, reflecting its "survival wisdom" under political pressure from the White House, particularly from Trump, who has remained unusually silent on this decision [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points was passed with a surprising 11-1 vote, showcasing unexpected unity within the institution despite external pressures [1][7]. - The rate cut is characterized as a "preemptive cut" aimed at managing risks before a potential economic downturn occurs [14][18]. - Powell's statements during the announcement emphasized that the rate cut was a "risk management decision" and downplayed expectations for rapid adjustments to interest rates [6][18]. Group 2: Economic Context and Implications - Recent adjustments to employment data, with a downward revision of 911,000 jobs, indicate a weakening labor market, prompting the Fed's decision to cut rates to prevent further economic decline [6][10]. - Historical precedents of preemptive rate cuts have led to varied outcomes, including soft landings, recessions, and high inflation, raising questions about the potential consequences of the current cut [15][17]. - The current economic environment is marked by persistent inflation pressures, particularly in the service sector, complicating the Fed's decision to lower rates [17][23]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the rate cut announcement, gold prices initially surged to a historical high before retreating, indicating market reactions to the Fed's signals [18][24]. - The dollar index fell to its lowest point since February 2022 but began to recover after Powell's remarks, suggesting a complex market response to the Fed's actions [18][23]. - Analysts predict that the 10-year Treasury yield will stabilize around 4.4% in the coming years, with the Fed expected to gradually lower the federal funds rate [23].

Group 1 - The core focus has shifted to whether the US economy is resilient enough to support further stock market gains after reaching record highs, following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut [1] - Market expectations suggest that the Fed may not be finished with its rate-cutting cycle, with three more cuts anticipated by March next year [1] - A significant 67% of surveyed investors expect a "soft landing" for the economy, which supports the stock market, while only 10% foresee a recession [1][2] Group 2 - Historical data indicates that stock markets tend to perform better when the Fed cuts rates without a subsequent recession, with past instances showing positive stock performance during economic expansions [2] - Barclays strategists believe that European stocks will outperform as investors broaden their investment scope, citing historical patterns where European markets excelled post-Fed rate cuts without economic downturns [2] - The current rate-cutting cycle is viewed as different from previous ones, as the overall economy remains "fundamentally okay" despite some weakness in the labor market [2] Group 3 - Some market participants express caution regarding the short-term outlook and the health of the market rally, noting that the immediate effects of rate cuts are debatable [3] - Concerns arise that the market's upward momentum has already been priced in, with a slowdown in stock buybacks and high valuations [3] - There is a focus on a limited number of "winners" in the market, such as major tech stocks, while other sectors appear stagnant or losing attention [3] Group 4 - In light of uncertainties in the US market and concentrated risks, some strategists recommend expanding investment horizons beyond the US [6] - Historical evidence suggests that a more dovish Fed tends to uplift global markets, not just the US [6] - Citigroup strategists anticipate that as investors increase their risk exposure, European markets will likely outperform US markets, aligning with historical trends during Fed rate cuts without economic recessions [6]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has decided to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.0%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut since December of the previous year [1] - The FOMC's latest economic projections indicate that most members expect an additional 50 basis points of rate cuts this year, with further cuts of 25 basis points anticipated in 2026 and 2027, reflecting a continued accommodative stance [1][2] - The U.S. GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been revised upward to 1.6%, up from 1.4% previously, indicating resilience in the economy despite high interest rates [2] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Spending - Retail sales in August increased by 0.6%, significantly exceeding market expectations, with core retail sales (excluding autos and gas) rising by 0.7% [2] - Online shopping saw a growth rate of 2.0%, and dining out also increased, suggesting that high-income households are driving current consumer spending [2] - However, the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index fell to 55.4 in September, indicating a decline in households' outlook on future income and employment [2] Group 3: Inflation Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.38% in August, the fastest increase this year, with core CPI increasing by 0.35%, both surpassing market expectations [3] - Inflationary pressures are shifting from goods to services, with significant increases in housing-related rents and travel costs [3] - The market may need to adjust its expectations regarding economic weakness, as core inflation is driven by strong service demand rather than just goods prices [3] Group 4: Labor Market Dynamics - August employment data showed a significant decline, with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000, well below the expected 75,000 [4] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.32%, indicating a weakening labor market, with most industries experiencing job losses [4] - The FOMC is closely monitoring labor market risks, and if conditions worsen, there may be further room for policy response [4][12] Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on ETFs related to housing, digital currencies, and gold, such as ITB.US, IBIT.US, and GLD.US, as potential investment opportunities in the current economic climate [5][13] - Given the ongoing economic resilience, sectors sensitive to interest rates, such as housing and construction, are expected to benefit from the current environment [13]

新华财经新加坡9月18日电（记者刘春涛）美联储17日宣布降息25个基点，并暗示年内或将再降息两 次。华侨银行投资策略常务董事华素梅农（Vasu Menon）在18日发布的分析报告中指出，此次降息符 合市场预期，美联储在经济未陷入衰退的情况下采取宽松政策，对风险资产构成中期利好。 尽管对劳动力市场感到担忧，美联储在最新的经济预测摘要（SEP）中却上调了今明两年的经济增长预 期，预计美国经济今年将增长1.6%，高于6月预测的1.4%，并在2026年和2027年进一步加速。这表明美 联储决策者认为美国经济能够避免衰退，实现"软着陆"。 华素梅农总结道，市场对此次降息反应平淡，因为该举措已被充分预期，但从中期来看，投资者应保持 信心。历史表明，在经济未出现衰退时，降息周期通常有利于股市表现。鉴于美联储对经济前景持乐观 态度，投资者应着眼于中期，继续持有优质资产。 （文章来源：新华财经） 报告认为，美联储目前的首要关注点是疲软的劳动力市场，而非通胀。美联储主席鲍威尔在会后表示， 就业面临的下行风险似乎有所增加，这解释了为何在当前通胀率高于2%目标的情况下依然决定降息。 未来，劳动力市场的数据将是影响美联储后续政策路径的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September 2025 marks the beginning of a new preventive rate-cutting cycle, with expectations for two more cuts within the year, although the long-term pace of cuts is expected to be slow [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve's Rate Decision - On September 17, 2025, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, indicating a unified stance among its members [2]. - The Fed is increasingly concerned about the risks to employment while maintaining a more optimistic outlook on economic soft landing [2][3]. Inflation and Economic Outlook - The Fed predicts ongoing inflation risks but is less concerned about short-term inflation impacts from tariffs, viewing them as "one-time" effects [3]. - The balance between employment and inflation remains crucial, with future rate decisions dependent on economic data [2][3]. Interest Rate Projections - The expected rate cuts for 2025 are likely to be limited to 75-100 basis points based on historical preventive rate-cutting cycles [3]. - The pace of rate cuts is anticipated to be slow due to the absence of significant economic deterioration [3]. Market Implications - A slowdown in the decline of U.S. Treasury yields is expected, with the 10-year Treasury yield projected to be around 3.8%-4.0% by the end of 2025 [4]. - The stock market, particularly sectors sensitive to interest rates like technology and real estate, is expected to receive ongoing support from the Fed's actions [4]. - The U.S. dollar index is anticipated to experience fluctuations, initially declining before stabilizing as economic conditions improve [4].

尽管部分投资者认为美联储9月决议释放的鸽派信号弱于预期，但美股投资者似乎已准备好抓住周三的 小幅回调机会。 这一反弹动力部分源于市场对美联储主席鲍威尔"降息25个基点属于风险管理"言论的重新解读。尽管有 人将其视为"预防性降息且后续降息空间有限"的信号，但高盛等机构反驳称，鲍威尔的表态实际上暗示 了10月降息的必然性。 摩根大通交易团队在当日分析中旗帜鲜明地建议投资者"逢低买入"，并预测美股可能迎来"爆炸性上 涨"时刻。 以安德鲁·泰勒（Andrew Tyler）为首的团队指出，美联储此次降息符合其"鸽派降息"预期，且仍预计年 内再降息两次。"这些预防性降息为多头提供了支撑，尤其是在周二零售销售数据超预期的背景下"，他 们在报告中强调。 经济数据与盈利周期的双重驱动 泰勒团队将未来股市上涨的核心动力锚定在两大关键数据上：10月3日公布的9月非农就业报告，以及10 月15日发布的当月通胀数据。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 若就业数据在连续两月疲软后反弹，且通胀"保持可控"，叠加三季度财报季（主要集中在10月第三周） 的强劲表现，美股可能迎来"突破性行情"。"对于那些期待年底标普50 ...

南方财经21世纪经济报道记者胡慧茵 美国东部时间9月17日，美国联邦储备委员会结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到4.00%至4.25%之 间。这是美联储2025年第一次降息，也是继2024年三次降息后再次降息。 受美联储降息消息影响，亚太股市呈现分化走势，日韩股市一路上扬，并创出新高，而东南亚股市则以下跌为主。 渣打中国财富管理部首席投资策略师王昕杰向21世纪经济报道记者表示，美联储此次降息后，日韩股市上涨，可能源于利差缩小，资本有望回 流，从而推高这两国股市。另外，美联储在最新《经济预测摘要》中，相对于6月调高了美国经济预测，预计今年GDP将增长1.6%，明年GDP 将增长1.8%，预示着美国将在经济软着陆的情境下降低利率，从而利好经济，支撑需求，这对于以美国为重要出口市场的日韩经济体意义重 大。 王昕杰进一步表示，美联储降息路径明确，为包括日韩等在内的亚太主要经济体央行提供了更大的货币政策空间，从而维持较低利率水平支持 经济，同时利好股市。美联储鹰派降息刺激亚太股市分化 亚太股市盘初，美股三大指数期货集体上涨。另一边，亚太股中，日、韩股市一路上涨。 日经225指数开盘即 ...

——2025 年 9 月美联储议息会议点评 本报告导读： 宏 观 研 究 美联储开启预防式降息周期 [Table_Authors] 汪浩(分析师) 2025 年 9 月美联储议息会议降息 25BP 基本符合预期，新一轮预防式降息周期正式 开启，预计年内仍有两次降息，但长期降息节奏仍旧偏缓。预计预防式降息周期下， 后续美债利率下行放缓，美股仍有持续支撑，美元指数先下后震荡。 投资要点： 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.09.18 | | 0755-23976659 | | --- | --- | | | wanghao8@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880521120002 | | | 梁中华(分析师) | | | 021-23219820 | | | liangzhonghua@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040019 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 收支有待提振 2025.09.17 美国就业：是否有失速风险 2025.09.15 总量需加力，结构有亮点 2025.09.15 信贷与货币：分化延续 2025.09.12 "存款搬家"：如 ...

当地时间9月17日，美联储宣布降息25个基点。据报道，这是美联储九个月来的首次降息，将使基准利率下调至4%至4.25%的 目标区间，这是近三年来的最低水平。不过，美联储主席鲍威尔在随后的新闻发布会上，迅速给市场对"宽松周期重启"的预 期泼了冷水。据报道，鲍威尔将此次降息定性为一次"风险管理式"降息。他称："无法保证这次降息是额外降息的开始。" 据悉，美国总统特朗普已多次要求鲍威尔降息，甚至因鲍威尔维持高利率政策而抨击他为"太迟先生"。不过，3天前的9月14日，特朗普 对外表示，他预计美联储将在本周的会议上宣布"大幅降息"。 ▲美联储宣布将降息25个基点 目前市场关注的焦点在于：这轮"重新校准"的速度和深度将会是怎样？最新的市场预期与美联储自己的预测之间，已经出现了分歧。 据报道，美联储官员的预测中值显示，今年将再降息两次，但2026年全年仅有一次降息。 而目前华尔街的主流预期是，美联储的降息步伐会相对持续。根据芝商所（CME）Fedwatch工具的数据，华尔街交易员预计美联储在今 年余下的两次会议上还将降息两次，并且在2026年上半年再降息两次。许多经济学家的预测也支持这一观点，报道称他们预计明年至少 还会有 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points (BP) to a target range of 4.00%-4.25% during the September 2025 meeting[2] - The dot plot indicates an increase in the expected cumulative rate cuts for the year from 50 BP to 75 BP[8] - The voting outcome was 11-1, with only one member supporting a 50 BP cut, indicating limited influence from the "MAGA" faction within the Fed[8] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The Fed raised its GDP growth forecasts for 2025-2027, adjusting them to 1.6%, 1.8%, and 1.9% respectively[8] - The unemployment rate forecasts for 2026 and 2027 were lowered by 0.1 percentage points (pct) to 4.4% and 4.3% respectively[8] - The inflation expectations for 2026 were increased by 0.2 pct for both PCE and core PCE to 2.6%[8] Group 3: Future Projections - The Fed is likely to implement another rate cut in October 2025, with a potential for 1-2 additional cuts by the end of the year[8] - The focus of monetary policy decisions has shifted from inflation to employment, reflecting the rising risks in the job market[8] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to be mild and largely one-time[8]