Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar has led to negative returns for dollar deposits, impacting individuals and families with foreign currency holdings [2][3][6]. Group 1: Currency Exchange Trends - The offshore yuan has shown a significant upward trend against the US dollar, with the exchange rate reaching 7.3368 by December 31, 2024 [1]. - Since November 21, the yuan has been steadily rising from around 7.11, with expectations of breaking the 7 mark increasing [6]. - The yuan's appreciation is attributed to a combination of external pressures easing, internal economic resilience, and market expectations shifting [7]. Group 2: Impact on Individuals and Families - Individuals holding dollar deposits have experienced losses due to the yuan's appreciation, with one case showing a loss of 1,033 yuan on an 8,400 dollar deposit [2]. - Families with children studying abroad benefit from the yuan's strength, as it reduces the cost of tuition and living expenses in foreign currencies [3][8]. Group 3: Market Implications - The appreciation of the yuan is expected to positively influence the Chinese stock and bond markets, enhancing the attractiveness of yuan-denominated assets [8]. - Increased demand for yuan due to seasonal currency exchange needs from businesses is contributing to the currency's strength [7].

12月25日，离岸人民币兑美元汇率升破7.0大关。 | 美元兑中国离岸人民币 | | | | | | 纽 添加自选 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FX USDCNH ③ 外汇 ■ Level1基础行情 | | | | | | | | | 6.997542 -0.0214 -0.3000% | | | | | | | | | 交易中 12-25 10:34 北京时间 | | | | | | | | | 与 中国离岸人民币兑美元 0.1429 +0.0004 +0.3100% > | | | | | | | | | 行情 | | | | | | | | | 今开 7.0332 最高 | | | | 7.0391 | 买入价 | | 6.9952 | | 昨收 7.0070 | | 最低 | | 6.9928 | 卖出价 | | 6.9999 | | स्त्रीय 周K 月K 更多v | 日K | | | | | | 6 高级工具 | | 7.018950 | | | | | | | 0.1704% | | 7.008320 | | ...

有人年初存美元，如今倒亏钱 人民币的大幅升值，也使得美元存款成了"负收益"。杭州市民张凯（化名）手头上有1万多美元外汇，今年2月份一部分美元（8400美元）办了13个月的定 期存款，到期利率为2.8%，到期收益254.8美元。如果按目前的汇率计算，本金加利息相当于人民币60596元；而年初的时候，8400美元相当于61629元人 民币。也就是说，按人民币计价的话，张凯的8400美元不但没赚到钱，反而亏1033元人民币。 张凯的朋友李敏（化名）因为孩子在国外留学，前几年换了不少美元，其中一部分暂时购买了美国长期国债，一年的收益有将近5%。"有一笔5万美元左 右的国债，大部分是在汇率7.2左右换的。"李敏说。按5%的利率计算，5万美元本金加利息一共是52500美元，按目前人民币计价的话相当于367573.5元； 而当初的5万美元的换汇成本是360480元人民币。也就是说，在享受美国国债5%高收益的情况下，按人民币计价，这一年李敏5万美元的收益只有7093.5 元人民币，收益率1.97%，仅略高于一年期人民币定期存款。 "我的好几个同事、同学，今年买A股收益率普遍很不错，有20%、30%的，还有50%以上的，感觉我 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the Renminbi (RMB) is attributed to a weaker US dollar, a decline in the dollar index by nearly 10%, and strong domestic equity market performance attracting foreign capital inflows. The RMB is expected to maintain a strong position against the USD in the short term and is projected to appreciate moderately by 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Factors Contributing to RMB Strength - The RMB has shown a trend of moderate appreciation throughout the year, with the offshore RMB starting at 7.27 against the USD and reaching a low of 7.42879 in April before rebounding as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts became clearer [2]. - As of December 24, the offshore RMB broke through 7.01, reaching a low of 7.00621, while the dollar index hovered around 97.8, indicating a continued decline in the dollar's value [2][3]. - Increased corporate demand for currency settlement near year-end has contributed to the seasonal strengthening of the RMB, with historical data showing that the settlement surplus typically peaks before the Spring Festival [3]. Group 2: Economic and Market Implications - The strong performance of the Chinese stock market has attracted cross-border capital inflows, providing additional support for the RMB's appreciation [3]. - The resilience of the domestic economy has been recognized by international financial institutions, leading to upward revisions in growth forecasts for China, which has increased foreign interest in the market [3]. - The RMB's appreciation is expected to positively impact the capital markets, potentially boosting stock valuations, as historical studies indicate that a 0.1% increase in the exchange rate can enhance stock valuations by 3% to 5% [6].

As stocks climb to record highs heading into the year’s final stretch, gold continues to surge, powering above $4,500 an ounce on Wednesday to cap one of its strongest years in modern history. The run-up is striking not just for its scale — gold is up roughly 70% in 2025 — but also because it’s happening alongside a rally in stocks. Why gold prices and stock prices are rising at the same time On the optimistic side, investors are betting that the U.S. economy will remain strong into 2026, corporate ear ...

21世经济报道记者 叶麦穗 临近年末，人民币持续走强。12月24日（截至北京时间15：20，下同），离岸人民币升穿7.01，一度触及7.00621，在岸人民币 同步触及7.0179。 对于本轮人民币升值的原因，市场普遍认为，主要还是被动升值，美元整体偏弱，美元指数出现明显下跌，跌幅逼近10%，叠 加国内权益市场表现亮眼吸引外资流入等，人民币对美元汇率稳中有升，整体维持较强韧性。展望未来，短期内人民币对美元 汇率仍将处于偏强运行状态，并有望在2026年保持温和升值。 | | | | 14 分时 1分 5分 15分 30分 60分 日 周 月 季 年 多周期 设置 画线 | | | | | | | | | 区 加自选 ● | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 7.0324 | | | | 分时走势 天元/人民币(周) 最新:7.00803 注达: -0.01129 法跌幅: 0.16% 时间 ...

对于本轮人民币升值的原因，市场普遍认为，主要还是被动升值，美元整体偏弱，美元指数出现明显下 跌，跌幅逼近10%，叠加国内权益市场表现亮眼吸引外资流入等，人民币对美元汇率稳中有升，整体维 持较强韧性。展望未来，短期内人民币对美元汇率仍将处于偏强运行状态，并有望在2026年保持温和升 值。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 记者丨叶麦穗 编辑丨杨希 临近年末，人民币持续走强。12月24日（截至北京时间19：38，下同），离岸人民币升穿7.01，盘中一 度触及7.00135，在岸人民币同步触及7.0128。 多因素共促人民币走强 今年人民币整体呈现温和升值的趋势。 2025年开年，人民币汇率以1美元兑7.27元人民币（离岸价）开局。随后美联储"放鹰"多次暂停降息， 美元一度走强，离岸人民币汇率的低点在今年4月8日，最低触及1美元兑7.42879元人民币。不过随后美 联储降息的态势越来越明确，美元高位跳水，出现明显下跌，人民币走强，9月17日离岸人民币突破破 7.1，最低触及1美元兑7.08532人民币。此后一段时间离岸人民币汇率在7.1一线反复震荡。 进入12月之后，人民币出 ...

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar is experiencing a historic sell-off due to rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and hawkish stances from major global central banks, with the dollar index hitting a two-and-a-half-month low and a year-to-date decline of nearly 10% [1][4]. Group 1: US Dollar Performance - The dollar index fell to 97.767, marking a potential record annual decline since 2003, and the worst performance since 2017 [1]. - The euro has risen over 14% against the dollar this year, potentially achieving its best annual performance since 2003 [1]. Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - Despite solid US GDP data, market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve remain strong, with predictions of two more 25 basis point cuts by 2026 [4][5]. - In contrast, central banks in the Eurozone, Australia, and New Zealand are signaling tightening policies, with some markets anticipating rate hikes instead of cuts [4][6]. Group 3: Currency Movements - The weakness of the dollar has led to a rise in non-US currencies, with the British pound and Australian dollar reaching multi-month highs [4]. - The Australian dollar has appreciated by 8.4% against the US dollar this year, while the New Zealand dollar has also reached a two-and-a-half-month high [6]. Group 4: Gold and Safe-Haven Assets - The depreciation of fiat currencies has driven spot gold prices to a historical high, reflecting a trend of capital flowing into safe-haven assets amid global policy uncertainty [4][9]. Group 5: Japanese Yen Intervention Risks - The Japanese yen has weakened despite a recent interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, raising concerns about potential market intervention by Japanese authorities [10]. - The Japanese Finance Minister has indicated that the government has "free hand" in managing excessive volatility in the yen, which has temporarily halted its decline [10].

（原标题：升破4500美元！国际金价又创新高，还能追吗？丨财经早察） 过去的黄金你爱搭不理，现在的黄金你高攀不起！这到底是怎么回事？就在12月22日，黄金走出"疯狂 星期一"！现货黄金单日涨幅接近1.5%，成功站上4400美元/盎司，创下历史新高。12月23日，现货黄金 成功触及4500美元/盎司。今年以来，黄金价格已经飙升超过67%。与此同时，现货白银、铂金等贵金 属也持续走强，部分品种的累计涨幅甚至突破了100%！ 从去年到现在，黄金的表现可谓势不可挡。即便前期涨幅已经很高，它依然能再创新高，这也再次印证 了投资市场的一句老话——涨不言顶。那么，黄金为何如此强势？我们来拆解一下背后的四大动因。 第一，美元走弱是直接推手。黄金和美元有着天然的反向关系。眼下美元正处于降息周期，贬值压力加 大，黄金上涨几乎成了必然。 第二，美联储降息预期持续存在。市场普遍预计，明年美元仍有降息空 间。第三，抗通胀与保值功能被重新重视。无论是美国还是欧洲，财政收支失衡的问题都很突出。市场 担心这种失衡会引发长期通胀，也就是所谓的"财政货币化"。在这种情况下，黄金的保值属性就成了投 资者的首选。第四，国际地缘政治局势紧张带来避险需 ...

来源：市场资讯 来源：国际金融报 2025年，美元经历了一场"滑铁卢"。 衡量美元对一篮子主要货币汇率的美元指数，在年内暴跌约9%，正迈向自2017年以来最差的年度表 现。 截至12月23日记者发稿，美元指数跌破98，创5日新低。 此外，美国内部迎来更严峻的挑战。随着美国创纪录的财政赤字和政府债务规模引发广泛担忧，国际评 级机构已下调美国政府信用评级。政府信用是主权货币的基石，其动摇直接冲击了市场对美元币值稳定 的信心。 市场还担忧政治因素可能影响美联储货币政策的独立性，特别是2026年美联储领导层可能更迭为鸽派人 选，这或引发更激进的宽松预期，从而利空美元。 在美元"跌跌不休"的同时，非美货币普遍走强。欧元兑美元升值约14%，瑞士法郎和瑞典克朗兑美元分 别上涨14.5%和19%。多个新兴市场货币也表现强劲。 与此同时，黄金作为传统避险资产大放异彩。现货金价年内飙升近68%，各国央行持续购金成为趋势。 继续下跌 市场对美联储持续降息的预期、美国与其他主要经济体利差快速缩小，以及对美国巨额财政赤字和政治 不确定性的担忧共同造成了今年美元的下跌走势。 展望明年，市场的悲观情绪并未消散。多家机构认为，2026年，美 ...