Core Viewpoint - The report from Renmin University of China's Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies warns of a significant risk of collapse in the U.S. economy and its debt system, predicting that 2025 may mark the year of a U.S. debt crisis, likening it to a Ponzi scheme nearing bankruptcy [1][4]. Economic and Financial Analysis - The U.S. national debt has reached $36.2 trillion, accounting for 123% of GDP, significantly exceeding the internationally recognized warning line of 60% [4]. - The report highlights that the U.S. government is increasingly reliant on "borrowing to pay off old debts," with approximately $9.3 trillion of public debt maturing in the 2025 fiscal year, representing one-third of total debt [4]. - Interest payments on U.S. debt are projected to reach $882 billion in the 2024 fiscal year, a 33.7% increase year-over-year, surpassing military spending for the first time [4]. - Cumulative interest payments over the next decade could total $13.8 trillion, nearly double the inflation-adjusted total from the past 20 years [4]. Policy Implications - The report criticizes the policies of the Trump administration, particularly the "reciprocal tariffs" and extreme fiscal tightening, which have led to a significant rise in inflation expectations and a drop in consumer confidence [3]. - It suggests that the combination of high tariffs and tax cuts will exacerbate social inequality and push inflation closer to 5%, further destabilizing the economy [4][5]. - The report warns that the U.S. government's loss of credibility under the current administration could lead to a market collapse similar to that of 2008 [3][4]. Global Economic Impact - The report indicates that the U.S. is increasingly viewed as a global adversary due to its aggressive tariff policies, which could lead to a contraction in global trade [5]. - It predicts that the collapse of U.S. debt will not signify the end of the international financial system but rather the beginning of a long process of restructuring the global credit system, with a shift towards a multipolar currency system [5]. Recommendations for China - The report advises China to strengthen its financial defenses against the risks posed by U.S. debt, including establishing a monitoring and early warning system for U.S. debt defaults [6]. - It emphasizes the need for China to enhance its economic resilience, improve domestic consumption, and promote the internationalization of the Renminbi [6].

"对等关税"或推高长期美债利率 20250429 • 美国意图通过对等关税增加关税收入、促进出口、推动军备购买、吸引投 资及直接收款，实为变相收取"保护费"，但实际落地可能仅为 10%的最 低基准关税，旨在施压谈判。 • 对等关税公布后，美国资本市场出现股债汇三杀，虽 CPI 数据良好，但市 场反应负面，反映出政策实施受到资本市场波动的制约，高频数据显示基 差交易、日本投资者和公募基金卖出债券是重要因素。 • 中长期来看，对中国以外国家加征 10%的对等关税可能导致美国利差下降， 预计每年美元供给和美元资产需求均减少 2,400 亿美元，其中美债需求每 年将减少超过 1,200 亿美元，对美债市场产生深远影响。 • 股债汇三杀在美国市场发生概率约为 9.8%，通常由对美关税担忧和美元 信用受损预期引发。2025 年 4 月 10 日的三杀事件在历史上排名较高，反 映出资本流出导致外资抛售股票、债券和美元。 • 对等关税政策实施后，美国 10 年期国债收益率在 2025 年 4 月 4 日至 4 月 11 日间上行 47 个基点，为极端走势，发生概率极低，表明大量投资者 抛售国债，市场流动性受到影响。 Q&A ...

以下文章来源于申万宏源宏观 ，作者赵伟 陈达飞 赵宇 申万宏源宏观 . 申万宏源证券研究所 | 宏观研究部 作者： 赵 伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 陈达飞 首席宏观分析师 赵 宇 高级宏观分析师 联系人： 赵 宇 摘要 对等关税冲击后，美元-美债的避险属性备受考验。从资金流量及期货空头头寸看，基差交易及海外抛售可能均非美债下跌的主因。谁在"抛售"美债？未来还 需关注哪些潜在风险？ 一、 热点思考：美债，风险"解除"了吗？ （一） 股债汇"三杀"，这次有何不同？ 70年代以来，美国出现过8次股债汇"三杀"，其中3次出现了衰退。 股债汇"三杀"的宏观场景有：一是美联储政策剧烈调整；二是大宗或地缘冲击；三是经 济、金融重大冲击。期间，美股单日平均下跌4.6个点，10年美债利率平均上涨15BP，美元平均下跌1.3个百分点。 对等关税冲击后，美元、美债的避险属性均未体现。 2020年3月，美国市场出现资金争夺（Dash for Cash），各类资产均被抛售以换取现金，但美债指数短期 下跌后，2月至3月仍上涨15%，避险功能未受质疑；2025年的不同之处在于，美债出现更长时间的下跌。 从资金流量观察，美国债券市场资金流 ...

上一次股债汇"三杀"发生了什么？20250428 摘要 • 类滞胀压力及关税政策制约美联储降息空间，基建和对华关税可能推升 PCE 至年底 4%左右，若未来一两个月关税无显著进展，市场预期 6 月降 息面临挑战，美债避险效果不佳。 • 政治局会议释放扩内需信号，消费、科技（国产替代）、基建和房地产开 发链有望受益，其中科技领域景气度高且有政策支持，消费类行业处于偏 左侧机会，基建和地产链需观察房地产未来趋势。 • 黄金价格受多种因素影响，包括美债利率、美元汇率、央行购金量及美国 赤字等，长期来看美国赤字率对实际金价有强解释力，央行购金量与实际 金价呈正相关，消费者预期越差实物资产价格越高。 • 2025 年黄金价格显著上涨，估值相对较高，但避险需求、抗通胀特性及 美元、美债避险能力减弱导致黄金稀缺性增加，长期投资角度看，黄金仍 具备吸引力，年化回报率与股票相当。 • 外资对中国市场看法略有变化，倾向于等待政策进一步明确信号再进行配 置，中国市场配置比例从上个月快速转为低配水平，行业方面，AI 和半导 体仍受青睐，分红和回购风格成为第二选择。 Q&A 美国股债汇三杀的背景和含义是什么？历史上发生过类似情况吗？ ...

以下文章来源于广发基金投顾 ，作者广发基金投顾 广发基金投顾 . 广发基金官方投顾订阅号，提供专业的市场观点、理财资讯、趣味课堂，陪伴你的基金投顾理财生活。 长按即可参与 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：超级定投家主理人 来源：雪球 4月以来 ， 即所谓的 " 对等关税 " 官宣后 ， 美国的各类主要资产都在坐过山车 。 如果是近期才买入美股 、 美债 （ 或者相关基金 ） 的投资者 ， 想必这段时间的波动还是比较难熬的 。 不过 ， 期间美股确实有几次不小幅度的反弹 ， 当然这基本上也都自于特朗普的反复 ， 发布了一些对于之 前政策取消或者缓和的消息 。 那么 ， 关税政策如此牵制资产价格 ， 造成 " 股债汇三杀 " 的底层逻辑是什么 ？ 特朗普最近又为何突然 " 服软 " ？ 当关税问题尘埃落定时 ， 如何看待各类资产走势 ？ 今天 ， 我们就用一篇文章来为大家解读 。 还是结论先行 。 | 资产 | 观点 | 正面因素 | 负面因素 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美股 | 在当前的基本面下,可以 等待产率更合适的 ...

Group 1 - The recent phenomenon of "triple kill" in the US financial market, where stocks, bonds, and the dollar all decline simultaneously, indicates a significant outflow of capital from the US market [2][4] - The S&P 500 index has seen a decrease of 5.9% from December 2022 to April 2025, while the 10-year Treasury yield has increased by 0.11 percentage points during the same period [3] - The decline in US Treasury prices is attributed to multiple factors, including increased tariffs leading to inflation, forced liquidation by hedge funds, and the upcoming debt ceiling crisis [4][5] Group 2 - Major US companies are beginning to estimate the impact of tariffs on their profits, with PepsiCo projecting a 5% decline and Pulte Homes estimating a 1% increase in new home costs due to tariffs [6][7] - The impact of tariffs on small and medium-sized enterprises is still unclear, as they lack the resources to mitigate risks compared to larger corporations [7] - The outlook for the US bond market is more predictable, with expectations of increased demand for Treasury issuance following the debt ceiling increase, but concerns remain about inflation and capital outflows [8][9] Group 3 - The US-China trade war has shifted from a broad approach to targeted measures, with tariffs being raised on specific industries such as automotive and medical devices [9][10] - There is a consensus among US elites regarding the need to increase tariffs on key industries to bring manufacturing back to the US, despite the challenges of re-industrialization [10] - China faces a significant challenge in balancing the need for dollar reserves while exploring alternatives to the dollar in international trade, including the promotion of digital currency [11]

对等关税冲击后，美元-美债的避险属性备受考验。从资金流量及期货空头头寸看，基差交易及海外抛售可能均非美债下跌的主因。谁在"抛售"美债？未来还 需关注哪些潜在风险？ 一、 热点思考：美债，风险"解除"了吗？ 陈达飞 首席宏观分析师 赵 宇 高级宏观分析师 联系人： 赵 宇 （一） 股债汇"三杀"，这次有何不同？ 70年代以来，美国出现过8次股债汇"三杀"，其中3次出现了衰退。 股债汇"三杀"的宏观场景有：一是美联储政策剧烈调整；二是大宗或地缘冲击；三是经 济、金融重大冲击。期间，美股单日平均下跌4.6个点，10年美债利率平均上涨15BP，美元平均下跌1.3个百分点。 对等关税冲击后，美元、美债的避险属性均未体现。 2020年3月，美国市场出现资金争夺（Dash for Cash），各类资产均被抛售以换取现金，但美债指数短期 下跌后，2月至3月仍上涨15%，避险功能未受质疑；2025年的不同之处在于，美债出现更长时间的下跌。 从资金流量观察，美国债券市场资金流出方主要为美国本土资金、其次为欧洲。 参考EPFR数据，4月8日，美国债市资金流出量达88亿美元，为近10年来第 二大单日净流出量。从国别上来看，美国本土资 ...

美国"股债汇"三杀，黄金冲击3500整数关口！短线回踩是机会还是风险，美盘多头能否再度发力？立即 观看超V推荐官Jason的分析，马上进入直播间>>> 相关链接 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent significant declines in the U.S. stock, bond, and currency markets, referred to as a "triple kill" [1][4] - On April 21, U.S. President Trump urged the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, claiming that inflation no longer exists in the U.S. and warning of economic slowdown risks if action is not taken [2][4] - The U.S. stock market saw substantial losses, with the Dow Jones falling by 971.82 points (2.48%), the Nasdaq down 2.55%, and the S&P 500 decreasing by 2.36% [4] Group 2 - The volatility in U.S. Treasury bonds has increased, leading to a steepening yield curve, with the ratio of U.S. government bonds to global counterparts dropping to its lowest level since March 2024 [4][5] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.88% to 98.35, marking a three-year low, with the dollar also declining against the yen [5] - International gold prices reached new highs, with spot gold peaking at $3,430.67 per ounce, driven by market uncertainty and a flight to safety [7][9]

4月初以来，"对等关税"政策引燃美国罕见的"股债汇三杀"。在刚刚过去的一周里，全球主要权益市场 走出上扬行情，美股则仍逆"市"下跌。 权威专家表示，美国"对等关税"措施激化贸易冲突，扰乱全球供应链，推升通胀和衰退预期。短期内， 对美国自身及世界各国资本市场都造成巨大冲击；长期看，会推升全球融资成本，加速全球产业链供应 链重塑，损害美国信誉和美元国际地位，并对全球贸易和金融市场产生深远影响。（上证报） ...