美国银行知名策略师哈内特最近将新兴市场称为全球市场中的"下一个牛市"。 全球市场向来牵一发而动全身。此前，穆迪调降美国信用评级仅导致美国"股债汇三杀"一日游，不少华尔街大机构高管开始警示美元资产投资者过于自满的 风险，并认为全球金融系统正在发生一些"更深层次"的事情。 话音刚落，被视为传统避险资产的日债、美债拍售相继遇冷，后者导致美国周三再度遭遇"股债汇三杀"。同时，黄金、比特币价格却升至历史新高。此外， 随着更多投资者选择"卖出美国"交易，分析师认为新兴市场有望开启一轮牛市。 美债、日债吸引力下降的逻辑 周三，美国再度遭遇股债汇三杀：美股三大股指遭遇四月以来最严重抛售、长期美债收益率出现两位数基点单日涨幅、美元指数再现将近50点的大跌单日， 失手关键点位100。其中，美债再度成为大跌的"风暴眼"。当日拍售的20年期美债的最高中标利率达到5.047%，史上第二次超过5%，并录得近6个月来最大 尾部利差，投标倍数也从近六个月平均水平2.57降至2.46。如此惨淡的拍售数据发生在穆迪调降美国信用评级后的首场长债拍售中。本应是避险资产的长期 美债需求遇冷，再度引发了投资者恐慌情绪，带动美股美元同步大跌。 对美国高债 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. financial market experienced significant declines across stocks, bonds, and currencies due to weak demand in the 20-year Treasury auction and concerns over fiscal deficits, leading to the largest single-day drop in major stock indices since April 21 [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 1.91% to close at 41,860.44 points, the S&P 500 dropped 1.61% to 5,844.61 points, and the Nasdaq Composite decreased by 1.41% to 18,872.64 points [3]. - Major U.S. tech stocks saw declines, with Tesla and Apple dropping over 2%, while Google gained 2.87% [5][6]. - Chinese concept stocks had mixed results, with NIO and Xpeng Motors rising by 16.2% and 13.08% respectively, following better-than-expected earnings reports [8][9]. Group 2: Bond Market Insights - The 20-year Treasury auction showed weak demand, with a high yield of 5.047%, which was about 1 basis point higher than pre-auction trading levels [12]. - Indirect bidders, including governments and fund managers, accounted for 69% of the auction, indicating strong foreign demand despite overall demand being below average [12]. - The yield on the 20-year Treasury rose to 5.127% post-auction, marking the highest level since November 2023, raising concerns about the U.S. budget deficit [12]. Group 3: Commodity Market Movements - Gold prices continued to rebound, with spot gold prices rising above $3,310 per ounce, and COMEX gold futures climbing to $3,317.5 per ounce, reflecting a 1% increase [14]. - In contrast, international oil prices fell, with WTI crude dropping to $61.33 per barrel and Brent crude to $64.66 per barrel [14].

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market experienced significant declines, with the Dow Jones dropping over 800 points, a decrease of 1.91%, influenced by a weak 20-year Treasury auction [2] - The yield on the 20-year U.S. Treasury bond reached a high of 5.127%, while the 30-year bond yield peaked at 5.094%, indicating a sell-off in U.S. government bonds [2] - Bitcoin surged to a historical high of $109,770, surpassing its previous peak of $109,358 on January 20, 2023, driven by regulatory dynamics in the U.S. [4] Group 2 - Gold prices on COMEX rose above $3,300 per ounce for the first time since May 9, 2023, with local gold jewelry prices in Shenzhen reaching around 780 yuan per gram, up from a low of 742 yuan per gram on May 15 [6] - Brand gold jewelry prices exceeded 1,000 yuan per gram, reflecting an increase of nearly 25 yuan compared to the previous day [6] Group 3 - The animated film "Nezha: Birth of the Demon Child" has extended its release until June 30, marking its fourth extension [9] - Meng Yutong and Dong Mingzhu are set to co-host a live stream on May 23, 2023, following Meng's departure from Gree Electric Appliances and her transition to social media [13][16]

受20年期美债拍卖疲软影响，美国遭遇"股债汇三杀"。隔夜美股收盘，道指重挫超800点，大跌1.91%；标普500指数、纳指均跌超1%。美国20年期国债收益率日内 一度冲高至5.127%，30年期国债收益率一度升至5.094%。美元对主要货币亦同步走弱，美元指数跌0.42%。恐慌指数VIX飙涨超15%。 华尔街人士分析称，这确实是一场"糟糕的"拍卖，虽称不上"灾难性"，但糟糕的程度足以让美国长期国债价格明显走低。 美债市场雷声不断。 在美国国债遭遇抛售的同时，比特币大幅飙涨，一度创出历史新高。北京时间5月21日晚间，比特币一度上涨至10.977万美元，超过今年1月20日10.9358万美元的新 高。分析认为，比特币价格持续走高，与美国监管的动态密切相关。 全线杀跌 美东时间5月21日美股盘中，美国20年期国债拍卖遭遇了低迷的需求，导致美债、美股和美元全线杀跌。 截至收盘，道指重挫超800点，大跌1.91%；标普500指数跌1.61%，纳指跌1.41%，均创一个月来的最大跌幅。 美国科技巨头多数下跌，特斯拉跌2.68%、苹果跌2.31%、英伟达跌1.92%、亚马逊跌1.45%、微软跌1.22%、超微半导体跌1.2 ...

Strategy - The article discusses the recent "triple kill" in the U.S. stock, bond, and currency markets following Trump's announcement of "reciprocal tariffs," which led to a significant market downturn, with the S&P 500 experiencing a maximum drawdown of 10% and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rising by 50 basis points to nearly 4.5% [3] - The concerns stem from the potential erosion of global investors' confidence in U.S. dollar assets as a long-term safe haven, alongside the immediate market volatility caused by policy uncertainty [3] - Historical instances of similar "triple kill" scenarios since 1970 are analyzed, identifying common triggers such as stagflation fears, monetary tightening, and reduced relative attractiveness of the dollar [3] Real Estate - The article highlights the evolving framework of China's real estate policies since 2022, emphasizing the need for dynamic responses to market challenges [9] - It suggests that enhancing asset circulation at both macro and micro levels could lead to a more balanced real estate market and effective risk mitigation [9] - The article advocates for synchronized policy deepening on both supply and demand sides, particularly enriching supply-side policy tools to improve industry supply-demand dynamics and asset price expectations [9] Macroeconomy - A joint statement from the U.S. and China indicates a significant reduction in tariffs, with the effective U.S. tariff rate dropping from 28.4% to 15.5%, which is expected to alleviate inflationary pressures in the U.S. and reduce export risks for China [11] - The outcome of the trade talks is seen as a positive development for market sentiment, with implications for both U.S. supply shocks and Chinese demand shocks [11] - The article notes that the future trajectory of China's economy will largely depend on the strength of macroeconomic policies, especially fiscal measures [11] Major Assets - The "triple kill" scenario in April is linked to significant changes in the inflation environment and the dollar cycle, indicating a decline in the safe-haven capacity of U.S. dollar assets [16] - The article warns of the potential for repeated and prolonged "triple kill" events, suggesting that the scarcity of safe assets like U.S. Treasuries may enhance the appeal of gold and other non-dollar assets [16] - It also points out that the uncertainty surrounding U.S. equities may increase the attractiveness of non-U.S. risk assets, particularly in Europe and China [16]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of "triple kill" in the US stock, bond, and currency markets, indicating a significant change in the inflation environment and the dollar cycle, where the hedging ability of safe assets like bonds and cash has declined, making it difficult to offset losses in risk assets like stocks and commodities [1][3][11]. Group 1: Historical Context of "Triple Kill" - The "triple kill" phenomenon is rare in the US market, primarily because US stocks have historically been in a bull market, with bonds and the dollar typically rising during stock downturns to prevent such occurrences [4][6]. - Historical instances of prolonged "triple kill" occurred during the high inflation era of the 1970s and 1980s, where high inflation eroded asset values, leading to simultaneous declines in stocks and bonds [6][7]. - The article highlights that since 2022, the "triple kill" has resurfaced, with increased frequency due to a shift in the inflation environment, causing a positive correlation between stocks and bonds [8][11]. Group 2: Current Market Dynamics - The decline in the hedging ability of US bonds and the dollar has led to a scarcity of safe assets, increasing the appeal of gold as a hedge [11][25]. - The article suggests that the attractiveness of non-US risk assets, particularly European and Chinese stocks, is rising due to the uncertainty surrounding US stocks [11][34]. - The article emphasizes the need to be cautious about the potential for a prolonged and recurring "triple kill" in US assets, as negative shocks could still occur despite recent improvements in US-China trade relations [12][13]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The article recommends maintaining a low allocation to US stocks due to their high valuation and sensitivity to negative shocks, while suggesting an overweight position in Chinese bonds as a safer asset [17][33]. - It also notes that European stocks may offer relative advantages due to favorable policies and valuation, with a significant discount compared to US stocks [39]. - The article concludes that while gold prices have surged, they may be overvalued, indicating potential volatility ahead, but the long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact [27][31].

| | | 大涨背后的裂痕：今夏美国再现股债汇三杀？ 美股连续大涨，市场情绪再度转热，但大涨背后的裂痕已经出现。 当市场焦点从眼前的关税缓解转向减税，夏季美国市场将面临新的"股债汇三杀"风险。 花旗认为特朗普的政策原本是一套组合拳，其中： 也就是说DOGE和关税进展都不顺，而减税推进则愈发带来市场对债务的忧虑，尤其是外资： 当前财政赤字的背景：当前正值美国的期限溢价已经处于高位。历史上，期限溢价的飙升可能会持续较 长时间（ 图1），预计这种情况将再次出现，尤其是在预算问题成为焦点时。 外国投资者需求的挑战：外国投资者对美国国债的需求仍然是一个阻力，这进一步增加了风险。 而这个夏季可能会出现"减税+就业数据恶化"的基本面组合： 财政赤字扩大与经济数据疲软：今年夏天的风险是双重的： 一方面，随着财政赤字扩大，可能会出现另一轮期限溢价飙升； 另一方面，一些经济数据的疲软可能开始显现。这些因素可能会导致美联储的政策重新定价为更偏鸽派 （尤其是考虑到最近市场对2025年美联储降息预期从100个基点迅速调整到仅略高于50个基点）。 劳动力市场的季节性疲软：值得注意的是，我们即将进入劳动力市场数据季节性疲软的时期（见图 2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent "triple kill" in the U.S. stock, bond, and currency markets triggered by Trump's announcement of "reciprocal tariffs," highlighting concerns over inflation, economic stagnation, and the long-term trust in U.S. dollar assets [1][38]. Historical Context of "Triple Kill" - Since 1970, there have been 10 notable instances of "triple kill," primarily associated with stagflation concerns, monetary tightening, and a decline in the relative attractiveness of the U.S. dollar [2][19]. - Common triggers include economic stagnation or stagflation worries, monetary tightening to combat inflation, and a weakening of the U.S. dollar's relative appeal [2][19]. Economic Stagnation and Inflation - Historical instances of "triple kill" often occurred during periods of economic downturn and high inflation, where the Federal Reserve had to tighten monetary policy, leading to a dual impact on both stock and bond markets [2][19]. - For example, during the 1973-1974 period, the S&P 500 dropped by 15.8%, and the 10-year Treasury yield increased by 60 basis points [4][6]. Federal Reserve's Role - The Federal Reserve's delayed or inconsistent response to inflation has historically exacerbated inflation expectations, contributing to market volatility [9][19]. - In 1987, for instance, the Fed's shift to a hawkish stance led to a significant rise in bond yields and a corresponding drop in stock prices [19][21]. Recent Market Dynamics - The recent "triple kill" was primarily triggered by Trump's unexpected "reciprocal tariffs," which raised short-term market volatility and long-term concerns about inflation and economic growth [38][40]. - The tariffs are projected to increase U.S. inflation by 1.6 to 1.8 percentage points and reduce GDP growth by 0.9 percentage points [40][48]. Long-term Implications for Dollar Assets - While the tariffs may undermine investor confidence in U.S. dollar assets, the article argues that the long-term impact on the dollar's status as a reserve currency will take time to materialize [49][51]. - The current structure of U.S. debt and the predominance of domestic holders of U.S. Treasuries suggest that the dollar's position as a global reserve currency remains intact for now [51][56]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that if negotiations on tariffs or tax cuts progress positively, it could alleviate market pressures and stabilize investor sentiment [56]. - Conversely, persistent stagflation pressures could hinder the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates quickly, potentially exacerbating market volatility [56][57].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Renmin University of China's Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies warns of a significant risk of collapse in the U.S. economy and its debt system, predicting that 2025 may mark the year of a U.S. debt crisis, likening it to a Ponzi scheme nearing bankruptcy [1][4]. Economic and Financial Analysis - The U.S. national debt has reached $36.2 trillion, accounting for 123% of GDP, significantly exceeding the internationally recognized warning line of 60% [4]. - The report highlights that the U.S. government is increasingly reliant on "borrowing to pay off old debts," with approximately $9.3 trillion of public debt maturing in the 2025 fiscal year, representing one-third of total debt [4]. - Interest payments on U.S. debt are projected to reach $882 billion in the 2024 fiscal year, a 33.7% increase year-over-year, surpassing military spending for the first time [4]. - Cumulative interest payments over the next decade could total $13.8 trillion, nearly double the inflation-adjusted total from the past 20 years [4]. Policy Implications - The report criticizes the policies of the Trump administration, particularly the "reciprocal tariffs" and extreme fiscal tightening, which have led to a significant rise in inflation expectations and a drop in consumer confidence [3]. - It suggests that the combination of high tariffs and tax cuts will exacerbate social inequality and push inflation closer to 5%, further destabilizing the economy [4][5]. - The report warns that the U.S. government's loss of credibility under the current administration could lead to a market collapse similar to that of 2008 [3][4]. Global Economic Impact - The report indicates that the U.S. is increasingly viewed as a global adversary due to its aggressive tariff policies, which could lead to a contraction in global trade [5]. - It predicts that the collapse of U.S. debt will not signify the end of the international financial system but rather the beginning of a long process of restructuring the global credit system, with a shift towards a multipolar currency system [5]. Recommendations for China - The report advises China to strengthen its financial defenses against the risks posed by U.S. debt, including establishing a monitoring and early warning system for U.S. debt defaults [6]. - It emphasizes the need for China to enhance its economic resilience, improve domestic consumption, and promote the internationalization of the Renminbi [6].

"对等关税"或推高长期美债利率 20250429 • 美国意图通过对等关税增加关税收入、促进出口、推动军备购买、吸引投 资及直接收款，实为变相收取"保护费"，但实际落地可能仅为 10%的最 低基准关税，旨在施压谈判。 • 对等关税公布后，美国资本市场出现股债汇三杀，虽 CPI 数据良好，但市 场反应负面，反映出政策实施受到资本市场波动的制约，高频数据显示基 差交易、日本投资者和公募基金卖出债券是重要因素。 • 中长期来看，对中国以外国家加征 10%的对等关税可能导致美国利差下降， 预计每年美元供给和美元资产需求均减少 2,400 亿美元，其中美债需求每 年将减少超过 1,200 亿美元，对美债市场产生深远影响。 • 股债汇三杀在美国市场发生概率约为 9.8%，通常由对美关税担忧和美元 信用受损预期引发。2025 年 4 月 10 日的三杀事件在历史上排名较高，反 映出资本流出导致外资抛售股票、债券和美元。 • 对等关税政策实施后，美国 10 年期国债收益率在 2025 年 4 月 4 日至 4 月 11 日间上行 47 个基点，为极端走势，发生概率极低，表明大量投资者 抛售国债，市场流动性受到影响。 Q&A ...