债基在经历"七零八落"后，9月以来还未有回暖迹象，短期内仍然面临大额赎回压力。 近期，德邦景颐A、格林泓远A同日公告称，均在9月10日发生大额赎回，决定提高基金净值精度，提升 至小数点后8位。 据时代周报记者统计，自7月以来已有67只基金（不同份额合计统计，下同）公告，因出现大额赎回而 提高产品的净值精度，绝大多数为债基。其中，9月以来已有6只债基发布相关公告。 产品方面，本轮出现大额赎回的债基，还包括"嘉实商业银行精选D"这类投资商业银行所发行债券的产 品，其他债基则普遍投资于国债、企业债、金融债等。据"嘉实商业银行精选D"招募说明书，其投资债 券净值占比前五名中，包括24建行债01A、24中信银行债01、23农业银行三农债。 相比之下，上述出现大额赎回的60只债基中，混合型债基占比不到10%，赎回压力较小。混合型债基有 20%的资产可用于投资可转债、新股申购，或直接投资股票，即"股债结合"。 根据Wind数据，中长期纯债指数在7月、8月均出现大滑坡，被基民调侃为"七零八落"，9月以来小幅回 调后又再次下滑，目前还处于4月中旬的水平。与之对应的是，截至目前，超1200只债基年内收益率为 负。 债市波动导致债 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and overall reference viewpoints for TL2512 are all "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation on the weak side". The core logic is that the long - term expectation of interest rate cuts still exists, but the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. - For financial futures in the bond index sector (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". In the short term, bond futures will mainly experience low - level oscillation and consolidation [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2512, the short - term, medium - term, and overall reference viewpoints are "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side". The core logic is that although there is still a long - term expectation of interest rate cuts, the short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, bond futures oscillated and sorted, with a slight rebound throughout the day. The newly released credit data was weak, and the marginal consumption growth rate declined, leading to an increase in the market's expectation of loose policies in the fourth quarter, and the long - term expectation of interest rate cuts still exists [5]. - Currently, bond futures are mainly affected by monetary policy expectations and the risk appetite of the stock market. Since the necessity of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is not high, the upward space for bond futures is limited [5]. - The risk appetite of the stock market is at a high level, and the capital side suppresses the demand for bonds. The year - on - year increase in non - bank deposit data from July to August indicates the "stock - bond seesaw" effect [5]. - In general, bond futures will mainly experience low - level oscillation and consolidation in the short term [5].

首席 点 评 ： 黄金刷新历史高位 美国8月零售销售环比增0.6%，连续三个月超预期增长，实际零售销售连续11个月增长。尽管经济面临 挑战，但在薪资增长和股市财富效应支撑下，美国消费者支出依然强劲，或将为美联储的降息决策带来 新的考量。潘功胜指出，区块链和分布式账本等新兴技术推动央行数字货币等发展，重塑传统支付体 系，大幅缩短跨境支付链条，同时也对全球金融监管和合作提出了挑战。对于快速扩张的加密资产市场 和气候风险相关的监管框架，全球监管协调不足，监管取向大幅摆动并受过强的政治因素驱动。商务部 等9部门发布《关于扩大服务消费的若干政策措施》。措施提出，优化学生假期安排，完善配套政策 。 重点品种： 黄金、铜、原油 黄金： 金银冲高回落。美国8月零售销售表现强劲，环比增长0.6%，预估为0.2%。同比增长2.1%，实现 连续第11个月实现正增长。上周公布的8月CPI同比上涨2.9%。核心通胀同比仍为3.1%。8月PPI环比意 外下降0.1%，预期为上涨0.3%。同比上涨2.6%，低于市场预期的3.3%，强化9月降息预期。本月多项数 据显示美国经济就业市场疲弱，尤其是非农就业2.2万人，大幅低于低于市场预期的7. ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The treasury bond futures are expected to maintain a volatile consolidation. Today, they fluctuated and slightly rebounded. The recently released credit data was weak, and the marginal growth rate of consumption slowed down, leading to an increased market expectation of loose policies in the fourth quarter. There is still an expectation of interest rate cuts in the medium and long term. However, currently, the treasury bond futures are mainly affected by the expectation of monetary policy and the risk appetite of the stock market. Since there is no high necessity for a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term, the upward space for treasury bond futures is limited. Additionally, the risk appetite in the stock market is at a high level, and the capital side suppresses the demand for treasury bonds. The year-on-year increase in non-bank deposit data in July and August indicates the manifestation of the stock-bond seesaw effect. Overall, the treasury bond futures will mainly experience low-level volatile consolidation in the short term. [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Industry News and Related Charts - On September 16th, the People's Bank of China conducted 287 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate through quantity tendering, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, which was the same as before. There were 247 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day. Based on this calculation, the net investment for the day was 40 billion yuan. [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and overall view of TL2512 is 'oscillation', with an intraday view of 'oscillation on the weak side'. The core logic is that the long - and medium - term expectation of interest rate cuts still exists, but the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is 'oscillation on the weak side', the medium - term view is 'oscillation', and the overall reference view is 'oscillation'. The short - term trend of treasury bond futures is mainly low - level oscillation and consolidation [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term view is 'oscillation', the medium - term view is 'oscillation', the intraday view is 'oscillation on the weak side', and the overall view is 'oscillation'. The core logic is that the long - and medium - term expectation of interest rate cuts still exists, but the short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Treasury bond futures continued the oscillatory consolidation trend yesterday. The newly released credit data was weak, increasing the market's expectation of loose policies in the fourth quarter, which is beneficial to treasury bonds [5]. - Treasury bond futures are mainly affected by monetary policy expectations and the risk appetite of the stock market. In the long - term, the expectation of interest rate cuts still exists, but in the short - term, the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is not strong due to the low necessity of a comprehensive interest rate cut [5]. - In August, inflation was weak, the credit demand of the real sector was weak, and the consumption growth rate slowed down marginally. The policy side will continue to introduce policies to stabilize demand, and it is expected that monetary and fiscal policies will work together in the fourth quarter [5]. - The risk appetite of the stock market is at a high level, siphoning off bond - purchasing funds and suppressing the demand side of treasury bonds. The year - on - year increase in non - bank deposit data in July and August indicates the stock - bond seesaw effect [5]. - In the short - term, treasury bond futures will mainly be in low - level oscillatory consolidation [5].

三季度以来，A股持续走高，但在"股债跷跷板"效应等其他因素影响下，债市则持续调整。与此同时，近一个月的纯债基金业绩也难言乐观，有近七成产品 的收益率告负，若拉长时间至年内来看，也有超两成纯债基金的收益率下跌。有业内人士认为，债券市场后续有望迎来新一波反弹行情。不过，也有观点指 出，债市调整的终点或难以精确判断，但若后续出现修复行情，债券收益率可能也不太会出现快速的报复性反弹。 | MALIN 2,957,700 6,414,100 | 639.10 558.77 507.55 | 2.94 2.57 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 72,352,200 | 523.34 | 2.41 | | | | | 2.34 | 7.01 | | 23,040,600 | 492.48 | 2.27 | 21.37 | | 002,609,200 | 491.13 | 2.26 | 2.10 | | 19,590,800 | 438.42 | 2.02 | | | | 423.00 | | | | STITLE US | | | | | 8941,200 | 346.4 | | | | 7 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Today, treasury bond futures continued to trade in a sideways consolidation pattern. The latest credit data was weak, increasing market expectations for easing policies in Q4, which is positive for treasury bonds. Currently, treasury bond futures are mainly influenced by monetary policy expectations and the risk appetite of the stock market. In the medium to long term, there are still expectations of interest rate cuts, but in the short term, the need for a comprehensive interest rate cut is not high, resulting in limited upward momentum for treasury bond futures. In August, inflation was weak, credit demand from the real - sector was low, and the growth rate of consumption slowed marginally. Subsequently, the policy side will continue to introduce policies to stabilize demand. It is expected that monetary and fiscal policies will work together in Q4. On the other hand, the risk appetite of the stock market is at a high level, diverting funds from bond purchases and suppressing the demand side of treasury bonds. The year - on - year increase in non - bank deposit data in July and August indicates the stock - bond seesaw effect. Overall, treasury bond futures will mainly trade in a low - level sideways consolidation pattern in the short term [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry News and Related Charts - To maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, the People's Bank of China will conduct a 600 - billion - yuan 6 - month term outright reverse repurchase operation on September 15. This is the second such operation this month after a 1 - trillion - yuan 3 - month term outright reverse repurchase operation on September 5. In total, the outright reverse repurchase operations in September amount to 1.6 trillion yuan, with a maturity amount of 1.3 trillion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 300 billion yuan this month, marking the fourth consecutive month of increased roll - overs. - The People's Bank of China announced on September 15 that it conducted a 280 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed interest rate, with a winning bid rate of 1.4%. There were 191.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing in the open market today, resulting in a net injection of 88.5 billion yuan. - From January to August, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 32.6111 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. - In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 3.9668 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%, with the growth rate dropping 0.3 percentage points from July. After deducting price factors, the actual growth was 4.1%, and the actual growth rate accelerated by 0.2 percentage points. On a month - on - month basis, the total retail sales of consumer goods in August increased by 0.17%, with a faster month - on - month growth rate than in June and July [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The bond market adjusted significantly this week. The narrowing year - on - year decline in August's CPI and the four - month consecutive rise in core CPI indicate marginal improvement in domestic demand, but food prices still drag. The narrowing year - on - year decline in PPI and the end of eight - month consecutive decline in the month - on - month data are mainly supported by policy - driven industrial product price repairs. The export growth rate in the first eight months dropped to 6.9%, and the import decline narrowed to - 1.2%, reflecting the resilience of external demand but uneven domestic demand repair. The main reasons for the bond market adjustment this week may include policy expectation disturbances and the continuous disturbance of the stock - bond seesaw effect. The short - term bond market may be suppressed by sentiment, but the report is bullish on the bond market in the long run, expecting the 10Y Treasury yield to be between 1.6% - 1.8% in the second half of the year [2][10][82]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro News - In August, CPI decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, with the same month - on - month figure as last month, and core CPI rose to 0.9%. PPI's year - on - year decline narrowed to - 2.9%, the first narrowing since February this year, and the month - on - month change turned flat, ending eight - month consecutive decline. - In the first eight months, the total value of China's goods trade imports and exports was 29.6 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. The export growth rate dropped by 0.4 pct to 6.9%, and the import decline narrowed by 0.4 pct to - 1.2%. - At the end of August, M2 balance was 332.0 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.8%; M1 balance was 111.2 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6%. The cumulative increase in social financing scale in the first eight months was 26.6 trillion yuan, 4.7 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. - The US CPI in August increased by 2.9% year - on - year, a new high since January, and 0.4% month - on - month, higher than expected. Core CPI increased by 3.1% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month in August, both in line with market expectations [12][17][19][21]. 3.2 Medium - term High - frequency Data 3.2.1 Consumption - As of September 7, the daily average retail volume of passenger car manufacturers was 4.3 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%, and the daily average wholesale volume was 4.4 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 5.1%. - As of September 12, the total box office revenue of national movies in the past 7 days was 35782.6 million yuan, a year - on - year increase of 41.0%. - As of August 29, the total retail volume of three major household appliances was 1.337 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 9.9%, and the total retail sales were 2.13 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 33.5% [24][28]. 3.2.2 Transportation - As of September 7, the weekly container throughput of ports was 6.646 million twenty - foot equivalent units, a year - on - year increase of 13.4%. - As of September 11, the average daily subway passenger volume in first - tier cities in the past 7 days was 37.473 million person - times, a year - on - year increase of 2.0%. - As of September 7, the weekly postal express pick - up volume was 3.86 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%. - As of September 7, the weekly railway freight volume was 79.043 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.1%, and the weekly highway truck traffic volume was 5.436 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6% [34][36][39]. 3.2.3 Industrial Operating Rates - As of September 10, the blast furnace operating rate of major steel enterprises nationwide was 77.3%, a year - on - year increase of 1.8 pct. - As of September 11, the average asphalt operating rate was 26.0%, a year - on - year increase of 5.0 pct. - As of September 11, the soda ash operating rate was 87.5%, a year - on - year increase of 12.9 pct, and the PVC operating rate was 79.8%, a year - on - year increase of 3.8 pct. - As of September 12, the average PX operating rate was 87.0%, and the average PTA operating rate was 74.7% [42][44]. 3.2.4 Real Estate - As of September 12, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities in the past 7 days was 1.488 million square meters, a year - on - year increase of 6.2%. - As of September 5, the second - hand housing transaction area in 9 sample cities was 1.234 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5% [47]. 3.2.5 Prices - As of September 12, the average weekly pork wholesale price was 19.9 yuan/kg, a year - on - year decrease of 26.3% and a 1.3% decrease compared to four weeks ago; the average vegetable wholesale price was 5.1 yuan/kg, a year - on - year decrease of 16.0% and an 8.7% increase compared to four weeks ago; the average wholesale price of 6 key fruits was 6.9 yuan/kg, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4% and a 1.0% decrease compared to four weeks ago. - As of September 12, the average weekly price of thermal coal at northern ports was 682.0 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 19.8% and a 1.0% decrease compared to four weeks ago; the average weekly WTI crude oil spot price was 62.6 US dollars/barrel, a year - on - year decrease of 7.6% and a 1.5% decrease compared to four weeks ago. - As of September 12, the average weekly spot price of rebar was 3138.0 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7% and a 5.5% decrease compared to four weeks ago; the average weekly spot price of iron ore was 804.9 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 14.2% and a 1.5% increase compared to four weeks ago [48][53][55]. 3.3 Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets - On September 12, overnight Shibor was 1.37%, up 1.40 BP from September 8. R001 was 1.40%, down 1.01 BP from September 8; R007 was 1.47%, down 0.53 BP from September 8. DR001 was 1.36%, up 0.76 BP from September 8; DR007 was 1.46%, up 0.52 BP from September 8. IBO001 was 1.40%, up 0.84 BP from September 8; IBO007 was 1.50%, up 0.37 BP from September 8. - Most Treasury yields rose. On September 12, the 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year/30 - year Treasury yields were 1.40%/1.61%/1.87%/2.18%, up 0.2 BP/0.3 BP/4.1 BP/7.3 BP respectively from September 5. The 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year/30 - year yields of China Development Bank bonds were 1.58%/1.82%/2.03%/2.26%, up 4.1 BP/6.3 BP/15.8 BP/6.8 BP respectively from September 5. - On September 12, the 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year yields of local government bonds were 1.54%/1.84%/2.03%, up 8.7 BP/0.5 BP/2.1 BP respectively from September 5. The yields of AAA 1 - month/1 - year and AA+ 1 - month/1 - year inter - bank certificates of deposit were 1.55%/1.68%/1.57%/1.71%, up 12.1 BP/1.1 BP/12.1 BP/0.1 BP respectively from September 5. - As of September 12, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields of the US, Japan, the UK, and Germany were 4.1%, 1.6%, 4.7%, and 2.8%, down 4 BP/up 3 BP/up 3 BP/down 2 BP respectively from September 5. - On September 12, the central parity rate and spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan were 7.10/7.12, down 45/154 pips respectively from September 5 [58][63][65][71][74]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior - Since the beginning of 2025, the duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds investing in interest - rate bonds has shown a trend of first decreasing, then increasing, and then decreasing. As of September 12, 2025, the estimated median duration was about 4.7 years, a decrease of about 0.1 years compared to last week (September 5). - Since the beginning of 2025, the duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds investing in credit bonds has shown a volatile trend. In the past month, the duration has risen rapidly and then fluctuated. As of September 12, 2025, the estimated average duration was about 3.1 years, and the estimated median duration was about 3.0 years, an increase of about 0.2 years compared to last week (September 5) [77][79]. 3.5 Investment Advice - The short - term bond market may be suppressed by sentiment, but the report remains bullish on the bond market. The year - on - year growth rate of prices in August was generally lower than expected, and this may be a stage of economic growth momentum transformation and income distribution structure adjustment. The year - on - year growth rates of exports and imports in August both declined. Coupled with the strong performance of consumption policies in the first half of the year, there may be some pressure on consumption and exports in the second half of the year. It is necessary to continuously monitor the continuation of incremental policies and price improvements. The report believes that the economic downward pressure may increase in the second half of the year, the capital market will remain loose, the central bank may restart Treasury bond purchases, and the self - operating allocation demand of banks will support the decline of bond market interest rates. The recent unexpected rise of the stock market has led to a significant adjustment in the bond market, but the bond market will ultimately return to fundamental and capital - based pricing. When the stock market adjusts, bond yields may decline rapidly. The report continues to expect the 10Y Treasury yield to be between 1.6% - 1.8% in the second half of the year, and the current 10Y Treasury yield of about 1.8% is highly cost - effective [80][82].

如何理解债市对宏观脱敏？20250914 债券市场对宏观经济数据的脱敏现象主要体现在以下几个方面。首先，债券市 场走势不再单纯依赖宏观经济数据，如 GDP、CPI 和 PMI 等指标。过去，通胀 和猪周期等因素能够较为清晰地预测国债走势，但近年来情况发生了变化，市 场逐渐从宏观向中观、微观层面演绎。 这种脱敏现象分为两个阶段：一是对数 据本身的反应有限，即无论数据好坏，市场反应都不明显；二是对超预期的数 据反应有限，即即使数据表现超出预期，市场反应也较为平淡。目前债券市场 已贴近第二种情况。 造成这种现象的原因有几点。首先是强预期压倒了短期经 济数据波动。当前债市对于经济基本面的预期非常一致，即有效需求不足、通 缩压力未得到根本解决。这些问题无法通过短期的数据扭转，因此即使某个月 份出口 PMI 反弹，市场也认为可能是季节性或政策刺激下的脉冲式回升，其持 续性存疑。而内在需求疲软、房地产下行、地方债务等核心矛盾未发生根本改 变。如果数据显示不好，则强化进一步财政刺激和降息预期。因此，当前交易 的是未来场景，而非当下数据好坏。 其次是政策预期高度一致。货币政策总基 调依然适度宽松，但强调资金防空转；财政政策保持 ...

深圳商报记者 陈燕青 外资机构对中国债券市场的配置策略正呈现明显的中长期特征。央行数据显示，截至上半年末，境外机 构在中国债券市场托管余额达4.3万亿元，占比2.3%。其中，国债持有量2.1万亿元，占比49.6%，同业 存单1.2万亿元，占比27.2%，政策性银行债券0.8万亿元，占比19.1%。 前海开源首席经济学家杨德龙分析称，近期这轮股市行情将持续较长时间，而不是一个短期的行情。从 资金面来看，这轮流入市场的资金是多元化的，其中部分资金来自债市，当前股债跷跷板已经明显偏向 股市。 西部证券（002673）固收分析师姜珮珊认为，今年以来，10年国债利率底部呈现逐季抬升趋势，债券牛 市预期转变，机构资金与存款从纯债向"固收+"和权益搬家，后续需重点关注资金动向及居民进入股市 的动态、存款搬家是否进一步加大。 在债券市场上，债券收益率与债券价格成反比：当收益率走低时，债券价格上升，债市走牛。债券价格 等于未来现金流的现值总和，收益率上升会导致现值下降。 2018年初至今，10年期国债到期收益率从接近4.0%一路震荡下行至1.60%附近，下行幅度近240个BP。 尽管期间也出现过2020年5-7月和2022年1 ...