近期，债市呈箱体震荡走势，10年期国债收益率围绕1.8%小幅波动。短期来看，利空因素在于股市放 量上涨，风险偏好回升，对债市形成明显压制；利多因素在于宽松的资金面和刚刚公布的10月金融数据 偏弱。在风险偏好回暖与资金面宽松预期拉锯下，市场缺乏主线，短期震荡格局明显。 从国内经济基本面来看，10月CPI和PPI温和回升，但居民消费延续回落态势。与此同时，10月金融数据 转弱，一方面10月信贷季节性回落，另一方面财政对实体支持力度阶段性回落。"弱现实"仍在延续，对 债市形成支撑。 从潜在利空因素来看，一是部分经济数据表现具备韧性，降低了年末加码宽松的紧迫性。二是风险偏好 变化，国内权益市场走势偏强，通过股债"跷跷板"效应压制债市情绪。三是近期美元和美债收益率集体 上涨，在一定程度上限制了国内利率下行的空间。 从政策层面来看，市场对四季度降准降息的预期升温。央行在三季度货币政策报告中重提"跨周期调 节"，预示政策视角更重长期。财政政策方面，5000亿元地方债务结存限额下达，后续基建投资可能形 成脉冲。宽松预期是当前债市核心支撑。另外，近期资金面仍偏宽松，短端利率保持低位，这也给债市 提供了支撑。 从海外市场环境来看 ...

Group 1 - The public fund issuance market has experienced a significant recovery, with a total of 1,378 public funds issued by November 17, surpassing last year's total of 1,143 funds, marking the highest issuance in three years [1] - The average subscription period for new funds has decreased from 22.63 days last year to 16.31 days this year, indicating a faster fundraising cycle and increased market activity [1] - The main drivers for the recovery include positive overall performance in the A-share market, improved corporate profit expectations, ample market liquidity, and increased investor confidence [1] Group 2 - FOF (Fund of Funds) products have seen explosive growth, with 72 new FOF products issued this year, doubling from 33 last year, reflecting growing recognition of their value [2] - As the equity market rebounds, there has been a significant increase in the issuance of equity funds, while bond fund issuance has declined, demonstrating a typical "seesaw" effect between stocks and bonds [2] Group 3 - A total of 19 public REITs and 18 QDII funds have been issued this year, with index funds emerging as a major highlight in the issuance market, comprising 813 of the 1,378 new funds, nearly 60% [3] - Index investment has penetrated various fund categories, with over 90% of stock funds being index products and nearly 25% of bond funds being index bond funds, indicating a trend towards lower-cost, clearer-style products [3] - The industry remains highly concentrated, with 131 public institutions issuing new funds, and 22 institutions issuing 20 or more funds, led by Fortune Fund with 60 new funds [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The bond market was narrowly fluctuating last week, dominated by the stock - bond seesaw effect. The weak financial and macro data in October confirmed the economic downward expectation in Q4, but the market reaction was flat, and the bond market sentiment was mainly driven by the stock market, being more sensitive to stock market rises. The stock market first adjusted, then rose and fell back, and declined overall last week, leading to bond market fluctuations with only a slight decline in long - term bond yields. Short - term bond yields rose slightly as the tax period approached, and the yield curve continued to flatten [3]. - This week (the week of November 17), the bond market will continue the oscillating pattern. The market's expectation of a reserve requirement ratio cut in the short term has cooled, and the expectation of an interest rate cut is still weak. With the macro data in a vacuum period, the bond market will continue to oscillate, and stock market fluctuations will continue to dominate market sentiment. The new regulations on public fund redemption fees may be implemented soon, but since the market has priced them fully, they may cause market fluctuations in the short term but with limited amplitude. Overall, with multiple factors such as weak fundamentals, low expectation of loose policies, the central bank's care for the capital market, the stock market entering an oscillating rest period, and the unimplemented new regulations on public fund redemption fees, the bond market is unlikely to break the deadlock and will probably continue the narrow - range oscillating pattern [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Market Review 1.1 Secondary Market - The bond market was narrowly fluctuating last week, with long - term bond yields slightly declining. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract fell 0.06% in the whole week. On Friday, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.02bp compared with the previous Friday, and the 1 - year Treasury bond yield increased by 0.59bp, with the term spread continuing to narrow [4]. - On November 10, affected by the warming of October inflation data, the bond market was weakly oscillating in the morning, but the long - term bonds recovered in the afternoon as the stock market fell, while short - term bonds were still weak due to tightened capital. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly declined, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield slightly decreasing by 0.03bp, and most of the Treasury bond futures main contracts of all tenors closed up, with the 10 - year main contract rising 0.01% [4]. - On November 11, the bond market was generally warming and oscillating. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly declined, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield slightly decreasing by 0.20bp, and all Treasury bond futures main contracts of all tenors closed up, with the 10 - year main contract rising 0.02% [4]. - On November 12, the central bank's Q3 monetary policy report mentioned stabilizing growth again and deleted the "anti - arbitrage" statement. The market's loose expectation remained, driving the bond market to be generally warming and oscillating. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly declined, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield decreasing by 0.48bp, and all Treasury bond futures main contracts of all tenors closed up, with the 10 - year main contract rising 0.02% [4]. - On November 13, the stock market hit a new high, and the stock - bond seesaw effect was obvious. The bond market generally weakened. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally rose, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rising 0.55bp, and all Treasury bond futures main contracts of all tenors closed down, with the 10 - year main contract falling 0.10% [4]. - On November 14, the capital tightened marginally and the stock market declined. The bond market was narrowly oscillating. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly rose, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rising 0.14bp, and the closing prices of Treasury bond futures main contracts of all tenors were mixed, with the 10 - year main contract remaining flat [4]. 1.2 Primary Market - Last week, 100 interest - rate bonds were issued, 43 more than the previous week, with a issuance volume of 7269 billion, an increase of 2129 billion compared with the previous week, and a net financing amount of 3903 billion, an increase of 1020 billion compared with the previous week. In terms of bond types, the issuance volumes of Treasury bonds, policy - financial bonds, and local government bonds increased month - on - month; the net financing amounts of Treasury bonds and local government bonds increased month - on - month, while that of policy - financial bonds decreased month - on - month [10]. - The overall subscription demand for interest - rate bonds last week was acceptable. Six Treasury bonds were issued, two of which were savings Treasury bonds, and the average subscription multiple of the remaining Treasury bonds was 3.39 times. Twenty - one policy - financial bonds were issued with an average subscription multiple of 3.83 times, and 73 local government bonds were issued with an average subscription multiple of 20.09 times [14]. 2. Last Week's Important Events - In October, the policies to stabilize growth drove up entrusted loans, and M1 continued to grow rapidly. In October 2025, new RMB loans were 220 billion, 280 billion less year - on - year; new social financing scale was 815 billion, 597 billion less year - on - year. At the end of October, M2 increased 8.2% year - on - year, 0.2 percentage points lower than at the end of last month; M1 increased 6.2% year - on - year, 1.0 percentage point lower than at the end of last month [14]. - In October, the year - on - year growth of RMB loans decreased due to weak domestic demand, declining external demand, and the continuous downward pull of implicit debt replacement on new medium - and long - term corporate loans. The year - on - year growth of social financing continued to decline, mainly affected by the significant year - on - year decrease in government bond financing and RMB loans to the real economy. Due to the higher base in the same period last year, the growth rate of M2 declined at the end of October but remained at a relatively fast level. The growth rate of M1 declined as the low - base effect weakened, but it still grew rapidly due to the increase in current deposits of urban investment platform enterprises during debt replacement and the increase in current deposits of small and medium - sized enterprises [14]. - The macro data in October continued to decline. The year - on - year actual growth rate of industrial added value above designated size in October was 4.9%, down from 6.5% previously; the cumulative year - on - year actual growth rate of industrial added value above designated size in the first 10 months was 6.1%, compared with 5.8% in the whole year of 2024. The year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in October was 2.9%, down from 3.0% previously; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in the first 10 months was 4.3%, compared with 3.5% in the whole year of 2024. From January to October 2025, the cumulative year - on - year decline of national fixed - asset investment was 1.7%, compared with a decline of 0.5% previously and a growth of 3.2% in the whole year of 2024 [14]. - The industrial production growth rate declined rapidly in October due to different working days compared with last year, negative export growth, weak domestic consumption and investment momentum, and the weakening of the pulling effect of policies to boost domestic demand. The year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods continued to decline in October mainly because the effect of the subsidy policy for trade - in weakened, the base in the same period last year increased, and the accelerated decline of the real - estate market dragged down real - estate - related consumption. The year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment from January to October was - 1.7%, with negative cumulative year - on - year values for two consecutive months, mainly due to the slowdown of infrastructure, manufacturing, and real - estate investment. Overall, affected by weak external demand, weakening domestic consumption and investment growth momentum, and the time needed for policies to stabilize growth to take effect, the macro - economic operation in October continued the weakening trend since Q3 [15]. 3. Real - Economy Observation - Last week, the high - frequency data on the production side showed mixed performance. The blast furnace operating rate and the operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants both declined slightly, while the daily average molten iron output increased slightly, and the semi - steel tire operating rate was basically the same as the previous week. On the demand side, the BDI index continued to rise, and the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) also continued to increase. The sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased slightly. In terms of prices, the pork price declined slightly, while most commodity prices rose, including the prices of rebar, copper, and crude oil [16]. 4. Last Week's Liquidity Observation - The central bank's net injection of funds through open - market operations last week was 626.2 billion. The R007 and DR007 both increased; the issuance interest rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit of joint - stock commercial banks increased; the direct discount rates of state - owned and joint - stock banks of all tenors decreased slightly; the trading volume of pledged repurchase decreased slightly; the leverage ratio in the inter - bank market fluctuated and decreased slightly [26][29][32].

Regulatory Dynamics - Ten departments are deepening the application of logistics data in the financial industry to optimize financing and insurance product services, addressing the financing difficulties faced by small and medium-sized enterprises [5] - As of the end of Q3, the total assets of insurance companies and insurance asset management companies reached 40.4 trillion yuan, a growth of 12.5% compared to the beginning of the year [6] - The Financial Regulatory Bureau will soon release a revised "Commercial Bank Merger Loan Management Measures" to support mergers and restructuring of various enterprises, including tech innovation companies [8] Company Dynamics - China Ping An increased its stake in China CRRC H-shares by 55.48 million Hong Kong dollars, raising its holding to 5.09% [17] - China Life has cumulatively purchased over 32.5 billion yuan in Xiong'an bonds and nearly 100 million in Xiong'an Group bonds, supporting the construction of the Xiong'an New Area [20] - China Life, in collaboration with Seven Wolves, established a private equity investment fund with a contribution of 1.6 billion yuan [21] Industry Dynamics - In the first three quarters, 70 life insurance companies achieved a net profit exceeding 460 billion yuan, surpassing the total for the previous year [42] - The insurance asset allocation has exceeded 3 trillion yuan, enhancing the "see-saw" effect between stocks and bonds [46] - The average vehicle insurance premium among 67 insurance companies was 1,836.89 yuan, with the highest being 5,700 yuan and the lowest at 880 yuan [47] Product Services - Ping An Life launched the "Yuxiang Jinyue 26" series of insurance products, aiming to meet diverse customer needs with a focus on wealth stability and growth [56] - The first agricultural cultural heritage protection insurance in Beijing was issued, providing coverage of up to 306,000 yuan for the "Jingbai Pear" cultivation area [58]

Core Insights - The public fund issuance market in China is experiencing a significant recovery, with a notable increase in the number of new funds launched in November 2023, indicating a resurgence in investor interest [2][3][4] Fund Issuance Trends - As of November 13, 2023, a total of 1,386 new public funds have been established this year, marking a 9.48% increase compared to 1,266 funds in 2022 and a 21.26% increase from 1,143 funds in 2024, setting a three-year high [4][6] - The average fundraising period for new funds has decreased to 16.92 days, down from 19 days the previous week, reflecting increased investor confidence in new fund products [3][4] Product Structure - Equity funds dominate the new fund issuance, with 39 new funds launched in the second week of November, of which 28 are equity products, accounting for 71.79% of the total [3][6] - Among the new equity funds, passive index funds and enhanced index funds are particularly popular, with 15 and 7 funds launched respectively, making up 56.41% of the new equity fund issuance [3][6] Market Dynamics - The issuance of stock funds has reached a 14-year high, with 767 stock funds launched this year, representing 55.34% of the total new funds and 36.95% of the total issuance volume [6][7] - Conversely, bond funds have seen a significant decline, with only 248 new bond funds launched, accounting for 17.89% of the total, and their issuance volume dropping to the lowest level in four years [7][8] FOF Fund Performance - FOF (Fund of Funds) funds have achieved a historic milestone, with 74 new FOF funds launched this year, representing 5.8% of the total issuance volume, the highest recorded since data collection began [8]

投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年11月14日 - FREE C | | | | | 欢迎关注微信公众号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | 品种 | 主力合约 | 点评 | 操作建议 反内卷在顺周期行业内持续推动,国内股指韧性较 | | | | IF2512 IH2512 | | 强,整体上继续降波等待企稳。三季报发布后,A | | | 股指 | IC2512 | 顺周期全面回暖,A股整体上扬 | 股整体处于再定价调整中,短期常见窄幅回调及反 弹,下方风险有限,推荐观望为主。若单日出现深 | | | | IM2512 | | 度下挫,可布局看跌期权牛市价差。 | | | | | | 短期10年期国债活跃券250016.IB的波动区间可 | | | | T2512 | | 能在1.75%-1.82%,且央行国债买卖重启、货币 | | | 国债 | TF2512 | 股债跷跷板效应下,期债全线收跌 | 政策偏宽,影响利率顶部、期债底部更加夯实。 | | 金融 | | TS2512 TL2512 | | 250016已经处于1.8%附近,后 ...

Market Performance - Treasury futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.26%, the 10-year main contract down 0.10%, the 5-year main contract down 0.08%, and the 2-year main contract down 0.01% [1] - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly rose, with the 10-year China Development Bank bond yield increasing by 0.4 basis points to 1.8765%, the 10-year government bond yield rising by 0.40 basis points to 1.8050%, and the 30-year government bond yield up by 0.45 basis points to 2.1495% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 190 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.40% on November 13, resulting in a net injection of 97.2 billion yuan for the day [2] - The overnight repurchase rate for deposit-taking institutions fell by about 10 basis points to around 1.32%, while the overnight quotes on the anonymous click (X-repo) system returned to 1.3% [2] - The central bank's flexible liquidity injections continue to stabilize the funding environment, with limited impact expected from the upcoming tax period in November [2] Fundamental Data - According to the latest financial statistics from the central bank, the cumulative increase in China's social financing scale for the first ten months reached 30.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.83 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year [3] - As of the end of October, the year-on-year growth of social financing stock was 8.5%, and M2 growth was 8.2%, both showing a decrease of 0.2 percentage points month-on-month [3] - The market had anticipated a slowdown in financial total growth due to increasing base figures, leading to a muted reaction in the bond market despite weaker financial data [3] Operational Suggestions - The bond market experienced weakness primarily due to strong performance in risk markets, with a lack of a clear direction amid mixed factors [4] - Future trading focus will be on the impact of new regulations regarding bond fund redemptions and whether expectations for loose monetary policy will materialize, particularly after the release of October economic data [4] - The short-term trading range for the 10-year government bond active coupon is expected to be between 1.75% and 1.82%, with the potential for monetary policy to support bond prices [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Overall Market**: The A-share market showed a general upward trend on Thursday, with cyclical sectors performing actively and some high-dividend sectors slightly correcting. The bond market was affected by the strong performance of the risk market, and the precious metal market experienced a decline after an initial rise. The shipping index fluctuated, and various commodity futures markets had different trends [2][5][7]. - **Investment Suggestions**: For stock index futures, it is recommended to wait for stabilization and mainly adopt a wait-and-see approach. For bond futures, it is advisable to wait for the release of economic data and consider going long on dips. For precious metals, it is recommended to buy on dips. For various commodity futures, different trading strategies are proposed according to their respective market conditions [4][6][8]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A-share market rose across the board on Thursday, with major indices closing in the green. The four major stock index futures contracts also rose, and the basis spread of the main contracts fluctuated narrowly. It is recommended to wait for stabilization and mainly adopt a wait-and-see approach [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and the yields of major interest rate bonds mostly rose. The market is currently in a tug-of-war between multiple and short factors, and it is necessary to pay attention to the implementation of the new regulations on bond fund redemption fees and the fermentation of broad monetary policy expectations. It is recommended to go long on dips [5][6]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The US government ended its shutdown, and Fed officials were cautious about a December rate cut, causing precious metals to rise initially and then fall. In the medium and long term, precious metals are expected to enter a bull market. It is recommended to buy on dips [7][8]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **EC**: The spot price is cold, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate within the range of 1650 - 1850 points. It is recommended to conduct band operations [11][12]. Commodity Futures - Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The liquidity risk has eased, and the copper price is expected to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to pay attention to the Fed's rate cut rhythm and Sino-US tariff situation [12][13][15]. - **Alumina**: The market is in a state of loose supply and demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is necessary to pay attention to the production reduction trend of high-cost enterprises [15][16][17]. - **Aluminum**: The market shows a strong macro-drive and weak fundamental support. The price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to short on rallies [18][20][21]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price is expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend, and it is necessary to pay attention to the improvement of scrap aluminum supply and downstream procurement rhythm [21][23][24]. - **Zinc**: The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to pay attention to the improvement of demand and the change of inventory [24][25][27]. - **Tin**: The supply side remains tight, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to hold long positions [27][30][31]. - **Nickel**: The market is in a state of more short-term and long-term factors, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to pay attention to macro expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [32][33][34]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market is in a state of weak macro-drive and strong fundamental pressure, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to pay attention to macro expectations and steel mill supply [34][36][37]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is in a state of strong supply and demand expectations, and the price is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to pay attention to the resumption of production of large factories and the marginal change of demand [37][40][41]. - **Polysilicon**: The market is in a state of high price and weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to pay attention to the establishment of platform companies and the change of demand [41][43]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The market is in a state of supply pressure and cost support, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. It is recommended to pay attention to the implementation of organic silicon production reduction [44][46]. Commodity Futures - Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The overall demand for five major steel products declined, and steel mills reduced production. The inventory continued to be destocked. It is recommended to short on rallies and hold the long coking coal and short hot-rolled coil arbitrage [47][48][49]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market fluctuated. The global shipment volume decreased, the port arrival volume decreased, and the port inventory increased. It is recommended to wait and see on a single side and partially take profit on the long coking coal and short iron ore arbitrage [50][51]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal market showed a low-level volatile trend. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand for replenishment is weak. It is recommended to view it as a volatile market and conduct a 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage [52][55]. - **Coke**: The coke market showed a low-level volatile trend. The fourth round of price increases was partially implemented, and there is still an expectation of price increases. It is recommended to view it as a volatile market and conduct a 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage [56][58]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The domestic soybean meal spot market price was stable with an upward adjustment, and the rapeseed meal market price decreased. It is recommended to pay attention to the repair of crushing margins and the adjustment of the US Department of Agriculture's monthly supply and demand report [59].

Core Insights - The "fixed income +" funds have rapidly developed this year, becoming a key choice for investors seeking stable asset allocation in a volatile market, with total scale surpassing 2 trillion yuan by Q3 2025 [1][2] - The launch of the new "fixed income +" product by Great Wall Fund aims to provide investors with more quality investment options [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The appeal of "fixed income +" funds is driven by a continuous decline in risk-free interest rates, which compresses the yield space of pure debt assets, failing to meet the income needs of conservative investors [2] - The recovery of the equity market, particularly in themes like technology innovation and green low-carbon, enhances the yield potential of "fixed income +" products [2] Group 2: Future Outlook - The long-term trend indicates that the domestic economy is transitioning towards high-quality development, with ongoing pressure on real estate investment and consumption, suggesting a continued downtrend in market interest rates [3] - The overall market may experience fluctuations, with a shift from broad-based gains to more rational differentiation, necessitating a focus on individual stock selection [4] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy for "fixed income +" will involve proactive portfolio management, focusing on building a stable bond base with an emphasis on medium to short-duration bonds and high-grade corporate bonds [5] - The strategy will also include enhancing allocations in convertible bonds, targeting those with high yields and low conversion premiums to leverage their asymmetric characteristics [6] - The final layer of the strategy will focus on selecting high-quality dividend stocks that are stable and financially healthy, adapting to market changes [6]

今年可转债表现亮眼，展望后市，张棪指出，尽管估值较年初有所提升，但供给端偏紧与需求端持续具 备吸引力的供需紧平衡格局，对估值形成支撑。在股市震荡上行的背景下，可转债仍具备结构性配置价 值。 近日，长城基金基金经理张棪针对当前股债市场环境及"固收+"基金的配置价值发表了专业观点。他认 为，尽管短期市场存在波动压力，但长期来看，股债市场均存在结构性机会，而"固收+"基金凭借其灵 活的多资产配置策略，或将成为投资者应对复杂市场环境的重要工具。 纯债市场方面，张棪认为长期中枢下行趋势不改，短期调整后配置价值提升，但受权益市场及基金销售 费用新规影响或呈现震荡行情。张棪表示，长期来看，国内经济仍处于向高质量发展转型阶段，高频数 据显示地产投资及消费仍有承压，利率中枢下行趋势未改。央行通过公开市场操作维持流动性合理充 裕，稳健宽松的货币政策为债市提供支撑。短期来看，经历三季度调整后，公募基金整体久期回落，债 市交易拥挤度下降，配置性价比提升。张棪同时指出，债券到期收益率进一步下行或面临制约：一是权 益市场表现强势下股债"跷跷板效应"的影响；二是银行自营等机构资金因基金销售费用新规尚未明确而 保持观望。短期市场或以震荡为主 ...