Group 1 - The reform pilot will be launched in 10 regions with a strong economic foundation, collectively accounting for over 25% of the national economic total in 2024 [3] - The pilot areas include Nanjing, Wuxi, Changzhou, Suzhou, and Zhenjiang in Jiangsu Province, with a comprehensive implementation plan consisting of 7 initiatives and 24 measures [3] - The reform aims to facilitate the free and orderly flow of human resources, further promote household registration system reform, and enhance the rights and benefits of residence permit holders [3] Group 2 - The pilot regions will promote the sharing and openness of government data, establish local standards for data sharing, and explore market-oriented pricing for data services [4] - There will be a focus on developing a digital industry system centered around the Internet of Things in Wuxi, and building smart city frameworks in Nanjing and Suzhou based on AI and 5G technologies [4] - The reform will also support the establishment of innovation alliances between enterprises, universities, and research institutions to facilitate the conversion of scientific achievements into marketable products [4] Group 3 - The establishment of a unified urban and rural construction land market will be promoted, along with the orderly entry of rural collective operating construction land into the market [5] - The reform encourages mixed-use land for secondary and tertiary industries and aims to optimize the approval services for new industrial land [5] - There will be efforts to revitalize existing construction land through various methods, including industrial upgrades and comprehensive remediation [5]

早盘速递 2025/9/12 热点资讯 重点关注 尿素、沪铜、工业硅、原油、PVC 夜盘表现 板块表现 非金属建材, 2.75% 贵金属, 29.76% 油脂油料, 10.90% 有色, 20.73% 软商品, 2.38% 煤焦钢矿, 14.49% 能源, 2.91% 化工, 12.04% 谷物, 1.07% 农副产品, 2.98% 商 品 各 板 块 资 金 占 比 -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% -2.50% -2.00% -1.50% -1.00% -0.50% 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 商品期货主力合约夜盘涨跌幅 涨跌幅 增仓比率（右轴） -0.60 -0.40 -0.20 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 板块涨跌幅（%） 第 1 页，共 3 页 1、国务院批复同意，在北京城市副中心、江苏苏南重点城市等10个地区展开要素市场化配置综合改革试点。此次开展的要素市 场化改革为期两年，既涉及土地、劳动力、资本等传统要素，还涉及技术、数据等创新要素，将着力破除阻碍要素自由流动和 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On September 11, most equity indices and CGB futures rose. Among commodity futures, slightly more products gained, while SCFIS(Europe) led the declines [11][14]. - The State Council has approved the launch of 10 comprehensive reform pilots for the market - oriented allocation of factors within 2 years from the approval date. MOFCOM will encourage foreign investors to increase investment in the digital sector. Minister of Finance Lan Fo'an will implement a more proactive and effective macro - economic policy. Chairman of the NDRC Zheng Shanjie will focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, the market, and expectations [42][43]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On September 11, most equity indices and CGB futures rose. Among commodity futures, slightly more products gained, with SCFIS(Europe) leading the declines. In China's commodity futures, the top three gainers were silicon metal, coking coal, and Chinese jujube, while the top three decliners were SCFIS(Europe), rapeseed, and iron ore. In China's financial futures, all equity indices rose and most CGB Futures increased, but TL fell by 0.1% [11][12][13]. 1.2 Daily Raise - **Coking Coal**: On September 11, coking coal rose 2.3% to 1141.5 yuan/ton. The peak season has arrived with strong overall support, and the market is fluctuating. Supply - side coal mines have mostly resumed production, and Mongolian coal customs - clearance remains high. However, downstream procurement is cautious, and the spot market is under pressure [18][21]. - **Woodpulp**: On September 11, woodpulp rose 1.8% to 5016 yuan/ton. Bullish and bearish factors coexist, and price fluctuations are expected. The spot market has weakened, and the patterns of softwood and hardwood pulp are divided. Overall, the weak performance of woodpulp remains unchanged, and the main strategy is to wait and see [27][29]. 1.3 Daily Drop - **Iron Ore**: On September 11, iron ore fell 0.8% to 795.5 yuan/ton. The fundamentals are sound, but the peak - season demand in the finished steel segment has not yet been verified, and short - term prices are expected to fluctuate. Supply has decreased month - on - month, demand has short - term support, and inventory is at a neutral level [35][37]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - The State Council has approved the launch of 10 comprehensive reform pilots for the market - oriented allocation of factors within 2 years, covering multiple regions. MOFCOM will promote the orderly expansion of opening - up in digital - related sectors and encourage foreign investment in the digital sector. Minister of Finance Lan Fo'an will implement a more proactive and effective macro - economic policy. Chairman of the NDRC Zheng Shanjie will focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, the market, and expectations [42][43].

Group 1 - The State Council has approved a two-year pilot program for market-oriented allocation of factors in ten cities, including Changsha, Zhuzhou, and Xiangtan, aiming to break down barriers to factor flow and empower high-quality regional development [1][6] - The pilot will focus on seven dimensions of reform, including optimizing innovation resource allocation and efficient transformation of scientific and technological achievements [2][6] Group 2 - Land reform will prioritize the protection of arable land while promoting flexible land supply models, such as "rent first, then let" and "standard land + commitment system" [3] - Human resource reforms will include relaxed household registration policies and a talent sharing incentive system to attract high-level talent [3] Group 3 - The data factor market will be explored, with initiatives for public data management and prioritizing the opening of high-value datasets [4] - Capital factor reforms will focus on meeting the needs of the real economy, promoting credit loan innovations, and enhancing financial services for small and medium enterprises [4] Group 4 - Green development reforms will enhance resource and environmental factor management, including the establishment of a market for pollution rights and water rights [5] - The pilot program aims to create replicable and scalable experiences for national factor market-oriented allocation reforms, contributing to the "Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan" model [6]

Core Viewpoint - The State Council has approved a comprehensive reform pilot plan for market-oriented allocation of factors in ten regions, including the Beijing urban sub-center and key cities in southern Jiangsu, aiming to enhance the efficiency of resource allocation and promote high-quality development [1][2]. Group 1: Reform Objectives - The pilot will focus on seven major areas: promoting market-oriented allocation of technological factors, improving land allocation efficiency, facilitating the free flow of human resources, accelerating the cultivation of a data factor market, promoting capital market linkage, enhancing the market-oriented allocation system for resource and environmental factors, and improving the overall efficiency of factor coordination [2]. - A total of 24 reform measures have been proposed, including deepening the reform of the technology system, establishing a unified urban-rural construction land market, and innovating capital supply methods [2]. Group 2: Specific Initiatives in Nanjing - The plan emphasizes Nanjing's role in talent recruitment and training, proposing reforms in vocational education and the establishment of a collaborative community for vocational education [3]. - Nanjing and Suzhou are set to develop a smart city brain based on AI and 5G technology, enhancing urban infrastructure and promoting the integration of the internet with advanced manufacturing [3]. - The plan includes exploring digital services and regulatory platforms for asset securitization, with a focus on Nanjing, Wuxi, and Suzhou [3]. - Nanjing and Suzhou will also explore mechanisms for realizing the value of ecological products, focusing on sustainable development practices [3][4]. Group 3: Nanjing's Development Efforts - Nanjing has been actively enhancing its factor abundance through initiatives in human resources, land supply, and financing, while also promoting new production factors such as computing power, data, and green electricity [4].

Group 1 - The report highlights the mixed impact of tailing factors on CPI and PPI, with CPI showing a decline of 0.4% year-on-year in August 2025, while PPI decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, indicating a potential recovery in PPI due to reduced base pressure [6][11]. - In August, CPI's month-on-month change was 0.0%, lower than the five-year average of 0.2%, with food prices underperforming seasonally and non-food prices showing stability [7][8]. - Core CPI continued its upward trend, reaching a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, supported by rising service prices and gold prices [9]. Group 2 - The agricultural pesticide industry is experiencing a continuous destocking phase, with total inventory as of June 30, 2025, at 13.94% of total assets, down from the previous quarter, indicating a potential recovery in industry sentiment [12]. - Prices for certain pesticide products have risen significantly, with glyphosate up 14.81%, paraquat up 39.13%, and other key products showing similar increases, suggesting a positive trend for the agricultural pesticide sector [12]. - The report suggests that supply-side structural optimization is expected, with a focus on sectors with significant elasticity and advantages, such as organic silicon and dye industries, as well as leading companies in these sectors [14][15]. Group 3 - The report notes that the European Central Bank maintained its key interest rates, aligning with market expectations, while the U.S. CPI for August 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, consistent with forecasts [17][18]. - The Chinese government has approved a comprehensive reform pilot plan for market-oriented allocation of factors in several regions, aiming to enhance the efficiency of resource allocation and stimulate market potential [20]. - The A-share market showed a significant rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.65% to close at 3875 points, indicating a positive market sentiment [22][23].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index has been the standout performer, while commodities are poised for a potential upswing. The domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose in 2025, and more incremental policies may be introduced in Q4 to boost the real economy. With external risks gradually easing and an increased probability of a Fed rate cut in September, the attractiveness of RMB assets is further enhanced. The current market is at the resonance of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", but investors need to adapt to the accelerating sector rotation and structural differentiation [1][2][9]. - Crude oil prices may be affected by the decision of eight countries to increase daily production by 137,000 barrels starting from October, and the potential partial or full restoration of the 1.65 million barrels per day voluntary production cut. Attention should be paid to the OPEC's production increase situation [3][12]. - The glass and soda ash markets are in the process of inventory digestion, with the futures market showing weakness and converging towards the spot market. The focus is on whether autumn consumption can further aid in inventory digestion and the impact of new policy changes on the fundamentals in the long - term [3][16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Main News on the Day - **International News**: In August, the US consumer price index increased by 2.9% year - on - year (in line with the forecast) and 0.4% month - on - month (higher than the expected 0.3%). The number of initial jobless claims last week was 263,000, higher than the estimated 235,000 [4][5]. - **Domestic News**: The State Council has approved the implementation of comprehensive reform pilot projects for the market - based allocation of factors in 10 regions, including the Beijing Sub - center and several city clusters, for a period of two years starting immediately [6]. - **Industry News**: From September 1 - 7, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 304,000 units, a 10% year - on - year decrease and a 4% month - on - month decrease. The wholesale volume was 307,000 units, a 5% year - on - year decrease and a 9% month - on - month increase [7]. 3.2. Daily Returns of External Markets - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.85%, the FTSE China A50 futures increased by 2.08%, ICE Brent crude oil dropped by 1.91%, and other commodities showed various degrees of price changes [8]. 3.3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial**: - **Stock Index**: The US three major indexes rose, and the previous trading day's stock index rebounded across the board. The communication sector led the gain, with a market turnover of 2.46 trillion yuan. The margin trading balance increased by 5.774 billion yuan to 2.309269 trillion yuan on September 10. The stock index has been rising since July, with short - term fluctuations but a high probability of a long - term upward trend [2][9][10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The short - end of treasury bonds strengthened, and the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond fell to 1.8075%. The central bank's net injection of funds maintained a relatively stable capital market. However, concerns about the reduction of bond fund scale, along with the stock - bond seesaw effect and the impact of fund redemption regulations, are expected to keep the long - end of treasury bonds weak [11]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: The SC crude oil night session fell by 1.45%. Eight countries decided to increase daily production by 137,000 barrels starting from October, and the 1.65 million barrels per day voluntary production cut may be partially or fully restored [3][12]. - **Methanol**: The methanol night session dropped by 0.54%. The operating rate of coal - to - olefin plants decreased, and the coastal methanol inventory reached a historical high, indicating a short - term bearish trend [13]. - **Rubber**: The rubber price showed a weak and volatile trend. The supply is affected by the rainy season in the main producing areas, while the demand is in the off - season with uncertainties. The short - term trend is expected to be in a volatile adjustment [14]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins showed a weak performance. The supply - demand relationship is the main factor in the spot market. Although the inventory is gradually being digested and the rebound of international crude oil prices is helpful, the market still needs time to stop falling. Attention should be paid to the support from downstream procurement [15]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The glass futures were in a volatile consolidation. The supply - demand situation is slowly recovering, and the inventory of glass and soda ash production enterprises decreased this week. The futures market is weak and converging towards the spot market, and the focus is on autumn consumption and policy changes [3][16]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold entered a consolidation phase. The inflation data in August strengthened the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. The long - term driving factors for gold, such as the US fiscal deficit and central bank gold purchases, still exist. Gold and silver are expected to show a relatively strong trend in the short - term, but investors should be cautious of profit - taking adjustments [17]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose by 0.45% at night. The supply of concentrates is tight, but the smelting output continues to grow. The power, automotive, and other industries have different performance trends, and the copper price is likely to fluctuate within a range [18]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price rose by 0.13% at night. The processing fee of zinc concentrates has increased, and the smelting output is expected to rise. The short - term supply - demand balance may tilt towards oversupply, and the zinc price may fluctuate weakly within a range [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium price remained stable. The production increased, and the inventory decreased. However, there are still many uncertainties in the market, and investors should be vigilant against capital speculation [21]. - **Black Metals**: - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke futures showed a high - level volatile trend. The inventory accumulation is mainly from rebar, and the iron - water output recovery will increase the supply pressure of finished products. Policy expectations and potential production - over - inspection effects can provide some support [22]. - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills have started to resume production, and the demand for iron ore is supported. The global iron ore shipment has decreased recently, and the port inventory is being rapidly depleted. The iron ore price is expected to be volatile and bullish in the future, but attention should be paid to the steel mills' production progress [23]. - **Steel**: The profitability of steel mills remains stable, and the supply pressure is gradually emerging. The steel inventory is accumulating, and the export situation is mixed. The supply - demand contradiction in the steel market is not significant for now, and the short - term trend is a correction [24]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Protein Meal**: The soybean and rapeseed meal prices rose slightly at night. Although the US soybean export is affected by trade tariffs, the reduction of planting area and potential decline in yield support the price. The domestic market is expected to be in a narrow - range fluctuation, and attention should be paid to the USDA report [25][26]. - **Edible Oils**: The edible oil prices were strong at night. The palm oil price may be under pressure due to the lower - than - expected export in August. The soybean oil price is affected by the US biodiesel policy and the upcoming USDA report. Attention should be paid to China - Canada trade relations and US biodiesel policies [27]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is in the inventory accumulation stage with increased Brazilian sugar supply, while the domestic sugar market is supported by high sales - to - production ratio and low inventory. However, the pressure from imported processed sugar and the upcoming new sugar - pressing season may drag down the price. The Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to follow the weak trend of international sugar [28]. - **Cotton**: The ICE US cotton price rose slightly. The domestic cotton market is shifting the focus to the new cotton purchase, but the downstream demand is weak. The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be weak [29]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC container shipping index to Europe showed a weak performance, falling by 5.28%. With the approaching of the National Day Golden Week, shipping companies are intensifying price competition, and the market is following the downward trend of spot freight rates. Attention should be paid to the shipping companies' price - adjustment rhythm [30].

Core Viewpoint - The State Council has approved a comprehensive reform pilot for market-oriented allocation of factors in ten regions, including nine cities in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, aiming to enhance the efficiency of factor allocation and promote economic development [1][2]. Group 1: Reform Pilot Implementation - The pilot areas include cities such as Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Zhuhai, focusing on six key areas: technology, land, human resources, data, capital, and environmental resources [2][4]. - The approval of the implementation plan signifies a deeper level of reform exploration granted to the Greater Bay Area, positioning it as a national benchmark for institutional innovation [2][4]. Group 2: Focus on Technology and Data - The plan prioritizes the transformation of technological achievements, emphasizing the integration of technology and capital, and aims to enhance the protection of intellectual property rights [4][5]. - Specific measures in the data sector include establishing a two-tier data market and improving public data sharing mechanisms, addressing challenges such as data ownership and cross-border data flow compliance [7][11]. Group 3: Land and Human Resource Allocation - The implementation plan proposes standardized land transfer for industrial use and a control index system for investment intensity and employment contributions [8]. - It also aims to attract high-level talent by allowing flexible policies for recruitment and compensation, promoting the flow of advanced production factors [8][13]. Group 4: Regional Cooperation and Integration - The plan includes measures to facilitate the flow of talent and resources between the Greater Bay Area and Hong Kong and Macau, enhancing regional cooperation [10][12]. - The Greater Bay Area is expected to serve as a testing ground for replicable market-oriented allocation experiences that can be applied to other regions in China [10][13].

Core Viewpoint - The State Council has approved a pilot program for comprehensive reform of factor market-oriented allocation in 10 regions, aiming to enhance resource allocation efficiency and promote high-quality economic development [1][2]. Group 1: Pilot Regions and Characteristics - The 10 approved regions for the pilot program include Beijing Urban Sub-center, Jiangsu Su-Nan Key Cities, Zhejiang Hangzhou-Ningbo-Wenzhou, Anhui Hefei Metropolitan Area, Fujian Fuzhou-Xiamen-Quanzhou, Henan Zhengzhou, Hunan Chang-Zhu-Tan, Guangdong Greater Bay Area, Chongqing, and Sichuan Chengdu [2]. - These regions are characterized by strong economic growth and development foundations, making them representative for the reform [2]. Group 2: Reform Measures and Goals - The pilot program will focus on various reform measures tailored to local conditions, including stimulating technological innovation, promoting efficient land allocation, guiding human resource mobility, and enhancing capital service capabilities for the real economy [2][3]. - The program aims to improve factor coordination efficiency, explore new allocation methods, and foster new productive forces [3]. Group 3: Financial Support and Initiatives - The People's Bank of China is committed to supporting the pilot program by enhancing financial services and promoting green finance initiatives, including the issuance of a new green finance support project directory by 2025 [4][5]. - As of the second quarter of 2025, over 1.38 trillion yuan in carbon reduction loans have been issued, and green loan balances reached approximately 42.4 trillion yuan, indicating significant financial backing for green and innovative projects [5]. Group 4: Data Resource Utilization - The National Data Bureau plans to enhance the value of public data resources in the pilot regions, addressing issues such as data quality and circulation [7][8]. - The focus will be on developing data sharing and transaction mechanisms while ensuring data security, with specific tasks assigned to regions like Fuzhou-Xiamen-Quanzhou and the Greater Bay Area [8].

2025年09月12日申万期货品种策略日报-国债 | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2512 | TS2603 | TF2512 | TF2603 | T2512 | T2603 | TL2512 | TL2603 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.410 | 102.320 | 105.590 | 105.485 | 107.580 | 107.280 | 114.74 | 114.39 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.350 | 102.290 | 105.425 | 105.350 | 107.490 | 107.205 | 114.76 | 114.38 | | | 涨跌 | 0.060 | 0.030 | 0.165 | 0.135 | 0.090 | 0.075 | -0.020 | 0. ...