Core Viewpoint - The stability of the RMB exchange rate amidst US interest rate cuts indicates a strategic financial collaboration rather than a reactionary approach [1][3][10] Group 1: US Interest Rate Cuts - The Federal Reserve initiated its first interest rate cut of 25 basis points in June 2024, signaling a focus on stabilizing growth and market conditions [3][10] - The European Central Bank also cut rates by 25 basis points simultaneously, indicating a coordinated response to the US monetary policy [3][5] Group 2: China's Monetary Policy - China made slight adjustments to its policy interest rates around the same time as the US and Europe, aiming to stabilize market expectations and maintain the interest rate differential with the US [5][9] - The RMB exchange rate remained around 7.2 against the USD, reflecting a controlled depreciation that mitigated capital outflow risks [7][9] Group 3: Global Capital Flows - Following the US rate cuts, over $120 billion flowed into European high-grade bond markets, while Asian emerging markets attracted less than $25 billion, highlighting a shift in capital preferences [7][9] - The strategy employed by China was to intentionally lower its "attractiveness" to prevent large-scale capital volatility, thereby stabilizing the global financial system [9][13] Group 4: Long-term Implications - The approach taken by China is viewed as a "silent financial collaboration," which helped the US stabilize its market without causing significant disruptions in the global financial architecture [10][15] - By not aggressively adjusting the RMB exchange rate, China avoided exacerbating global financial instability, which could have led to larger systemic risks [13][15][17]

Core Insights - A significant shift in investor sentiment regarding economic recession concerns has been observed, with 59% of investors now believing a recession is unlikely [1] - The report indicates that this represents a major change from April, when only 42% of respondents felt a recession was unlikely [1] - Approximately 65% of investors anticipate a "soft landing" for the economy, characterized by a slowdown in inflation without a significant economic downturn [1] - Only 9% of investors expect a "hard landing," where inflation decreases alongside a slowdown or recession in the economy [1]

Core Viewpoint - Christopher Waller is recognized as the most suitable candidate to succeed Jerome Powell as the Federal Reserve Chair, balancing between hawkish and dovish stances while adhering to data-driven monetary policy [1][2]. Group 1: Waller's Qualifications and Market Perception - Waller has gained broad recognition in the market and policy circles for his leadership and economic judgment, making him a trusted figure who aligns with Trump's desire to lower the 10-year Treasury yield [1]. - His approach to monetary policy is characterized by a focus on data, avoiding extreme positions, which has led to a favorable perception among market participants [2][4]. - Waller's communication style, utilizing scenario analysis, enhances market understanding of the Fed's policy responses, further solidifying his reputation as a reliable policymaker [4]. Group 2: Economic Insights and Predictions - Waller has demonstrated a keen ability to anticipate economic trends, such as recognizing the persistent nature of inflation in 2021, which many mainstream forecasters overlooked [2]. - He proposed that it is possible to control inflation through interest rate hikes without triggering massive unemployment, a theory that has proven to align closely with subsequent economic developments [2]. - In discussions about tariffs, Waller acknowledged their inflationary impact but suggested that the effects would be temporary, supporting the case for potential interest rate cuts starting in July [3]. Group 3: Political Dynamics and Strategic Value - Waller's previous appointment by Trump and his non-confrontational stance towards the administration make him a politically acceptable choice for the presidency of the Fed [4][5]. - His nomination could facilitate a smooth transition of leadership, allowing Powell to retire with confidence, as Waller's policies are seen as stable and professional [6]. - The potential for Waller to maintain market trust and avoid significant increases in long-term interest rates aligns with Trump's economic agenda, emphasizing low rates and low inflation [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Chairman, Philip Lowe, does not believe there is inconsistency in the bank's interest rate decisions [1] - The RBA is lowering interest rates in a "reasonable and prudent manner" [1] - The RBA is performing "very well" in achieving a soft landing for the economy [1] Summary by Categories - **Interest Rate Decisions** - The RBA Chairman asserts that there is no perception of wavering in the bank's approach to interest rate decisions [1] - The current strategy involves a careful reduction of interest rates [1] - **Economic Outlook** - The RBA is confident in its ability to manage a soft landing for the economy, indicating effective monetary policy [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. ADP employment report for June unexpectedly showed a loss of 33,000 jobs, challenging the narrative of a robust labor market [1] - The government announced plans to cut nearly 290,000 federal positions this year, adding pressure to an already tight labor market [1] - Job search activity for positions such as policy analysts has surged tenfold year-over-year, indicating increased competition among job seekers [1] Group 2 - The shift of stable government employees to the private sector may dilute already slowing hiring demand, potentially leading to downward pressure on wages for knowledge-based positions [3] - If public sector wages, seen as a stabilizing factor, decline, it could negatively impact mortgage payments and durable goods orders, affecting consumer spending [3] - The bond market reacted with the ten-year yield dropping below 4.1%, indicating a flight to safety, while consumer staples and utilities showed slight gains amidst pressure on banks, construction, and small tech stocks [3] Group 3 - A true turning point in the labor market may require three signals: consecutive negative private sector job additions, a reduction in average hours worked, and initial jobless claims surpassing post-pandemic highs [3] - If these conditions are met, the anticipated "soft landing" for the economy could shift to a "hard reality" [3] - In the interim, a prudent strategy involves reducing concentrated bets, using high-dividend assets to hedge against volatility, and adjusting positions based on rolling data [3]

Group 1 - The risk of a soft landing for the UK economy is increasing, with a slowdown in economic growth observed [1] - Concerns are raised that inflation may fall below the target [1] - The labor market is showing signs of strain, indicating the presence of idle capacity and an emerging output gap [1] Group 2 - Potential inflationary pressures are shifting downward, with worries about second-round effects from energy prices [2] - The process of inflation decline is ongoing [2] - Quantitative tightening (QT) remains a viable option, similar to interest rates, which are not on a predetermined path [2]

Core Insights - The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) annual report indicates that the disruptive trade policies of the United States are exacerbating global inflation risks and exposing the vulnerabilities of the global economy [1] - The report suggests that a "soft landing" was achievable, but tariff threats have interrupted this process, making it more difficult for multiple countries to achieve their 2% inflation targets [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the rising risks of unemployment in the U.S. labor market, driven by weakening labor supply and demand, and the potential impact of tariffs on employment [2][3][4] - The U.S. labor market is crucial for the economy, with consumer spending significantly contributing to GDP growth, primarily driven by labor income [2][6] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise, with estimates suggesting it could reach 4.5-4.6% by the end of the year, influenced by the new tariffs [3][89] Group 2 - The article discusses the employment impact of tariffs, indicating that a 1% decline in GDP could lead to a 0.3-0.7% increase in unemployment, based on Okun's Law [3][89] - The current tariff situation is expected to have a more significant impact on the manufacturing sector compared to previous tariff implementations, with a broader economic slowdown anticipated [65][77] - The article notes that the current economic environment is characterized by declining wage growth and increased precautionary savings among consumers, which could further exacerbate employment challenges [77][81] Group 3 - The "Sahm Rule" is mentioned as a potential indicator of recession, suggesting that if the unemployment rate rises to 4.6%, it could trigger recession signals [4][99] - Historical data shows that the Sahm Rule has a high success rate in predicting recessions, with the article indicating that the current labor market conditions could lead to its activation in the coming months [99][100] - The article emphasizes that the labor market is currently in a "loosened" state, with demand-side weaknesses likely driving the unemployment rate upward [100]

国外 1. 大摩：预计到2026年底，人民币对美元的升值幅度将相对温和，可能达到7.05 今日上午，MSCI中国指数上涨，较4月低点涨幅扩大至20%。从目前的情况来看，中国股市的多头趋势 的确在增强。摩根士丹利表示，投资者尤其关注中国市场中的新技术和新商业模式，特别是新消费主题 以及人工智能/科技相关主题。对于中国在全球技术竞争中能力的提升，例如在人工智能领域的突破以 及电动车、电池、人形机器人等领域的进展，投资者也给予了更多认可，并开始重新思考在多极世界中 同时投资中美市场的策略。汇率方面，摩根士丹利已将人民币兑美元的观点从贬值转为升值。这一转变 反映了其对美元走弱的预期，预计到2026年底，美元指数可能跌至89。同时，欧元兑美元预计也将升值 超过10%。不过，摩根士丹利预计到2026年底，人民币对美元的升值幅度将相对温和，可能达到7.05。 2. 瑞银全球财富管理建议配置中国股票，看好其上涨潜力 瑞银全球财富管理认为，全球投资者应继续战略性地投资中国股票，因为贸易风险已触顶，未来可能会 有更多政策支持。其表示，在基本面改善、现有及潜在政策支持、以及人工智能的长期增长前景推动 下，中国科技股具有进一步上涨的 ...

Group 1 - The global market is experiencing a rare "split," with investors aggressively pursuing risk assets while simultaneously hoarding safe-haven tools, as both the S&P 500 index and gold approach historical highs [1] - Traditionally, there is a negative correlation between the S&P 500 index and gold, but as of now, gold has increased nearly 27% this year, just 2.1% away from its historical high set on April 21 [1] - In contrast, the S&P 500 index has only risen 2.1% this year but has rebounded strongly from a significant sell-off following President Trump's announcement of comprehensive tariffs on April 2, now just 2.3% away from its historical closing record [1] Group 2 - The current market narrative reflects a conflict between optimism and fear, with the stock market pricing in AI-driven profit growth while gold is priced based on long-term structural concerns such as uncontrolled deficits and a weakening dollar [3] - Investors are seeking growth through stock purchases while simultaneously buying gold for stability, preparing for two potential outcomes [3] - The ratio of gold to the S&P 500, currently around 1.76, indicates that while it is high, it is not at extreme levels, suggesting a favorable position for gold [4] Group 3 - The gold/S&P 500 ratio was as low as approximately 1.5 in April, indicating a potential shift towards safe assets or preparation for volatility when the ratio declines [4] - Maintaining the current situation where both the index and gold reach historical highs may require a combination of lower real interest rates, dovish Federal Reserve policies, sustained demand for hard assets, ongoing confidence in long-term growth, and sufficient macroeconomic uncertainty to keep fear-driven trading active [4] - The scenario is likened to balancing two spinning plates, which may be sustainable for a time but requires continuous movement and appropriate conditions to prevent both from falling [4]