Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - For Treasury bonds, it is expected that there will be no trending market, and caution should be maintained [5][6]. - For stock index futures, the risk of a significant decline is low, and one can choose the right time to go long [7][8][9]. - For precious metals, the short - term pricing is relatively full. After taking profit on long positions, one can wait and see [10][11]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coils, the mid - term weakness of rebar prices may be difficult to change, and hot - rolled coils may follow the same trend. Investors can focus on shorting opportunities at high levels during rebounds [12][13]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern has weakened. Investors can look for shorting opportunities at high levels [15]. - For coking coal and coke, the short - term strength may continue. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks [17][18]. - For ferroalloys, the short - term supply may remain in excess. One can consider long positions at low levels when the spot falls into the loss range again [20][21]. - For crude oil, the main contract should be temporarily observed [22][23][24]. - For fuel oil, one can focus on shorting opportunities for the main contract [25][26][27]. - For polyolefins, one can focus on going long opportunities [28][29]. - For synthetic rubber, it is expected to move in a range [30]. - For natural rubber, one can pay attention to going long opportunities [31][32]. - For PVC, one should focus on changes in the supply side [33][34]. - For urea, the downside space is limited [34][36]. - For PX, it may be adjusted in a range. One should pay attention to changes in crude oil and macro - policies [37]. - For PTA, it may move in a range. One should be cautious, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [38]. - For ethylene glycol, it may be under pressure in the short term. One should focus on port inventory and supply changes [39]. - For short - fiber, it may follow the cost to move in a range. One should control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [40][41]. - For bottle chips, it is expected to follow the cost to move in a range. One should control risks [42]. - For lithium carbonate, pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [43]. - For copper, it is in a stage of adjustment [44][45]. - For aluminum, it is expected to run at a high level [46][47]. - For zinc, it is expected to continue the range - bound pattern [48][49]. - For lead, one should be cautious when chasing long positions [50][51]. - For tin, it may move strongly in a range [52][53]. - For nickel, it may move in a range [54]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, one can consider exiting long positions when soybean meal continues to rise. Soybean oil can be temporarily observed [55][56]. - For palm oil, one can consider going long on pullbacks [57][58]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, one can consider the strategy of buying near - term contracts and selling far - term contracts for rapeseed meal [59][60][61]. - For cotton, the upside space of cotton prices is expected to be limited [62][63][64]. - For sugar, the downside has certain support [65][67][68]. - For apples, one should wait and see [69][70]. - For live pigs, one can consider shorting opportunities on rebounds [71][72]. - For eggs, one can continue to hold short positions and pay attention to adding short positions on rebounds [73][74][75]. - For corn and corn starch, it is advisable to wait and see for corn, and corn starch may follow the corn market [76][77][78]. Summary by Categories Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, most Treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted 92.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 249.8 billion yuan. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the Treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level [5]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, but asset valuations are low, and the market sentiment has warmed up. The risk of a significant decline is low [7][8]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The US labor market has slowed down, and the Fed is expected to cut interest rates. However, the recent increase has been large, and the pricing is relatively full [10]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded slightly. In the medium term, the demand for rebar is still declining year - on - year, and the inventory pressure is obvious. The fundamentals of hot - rolled coils are similar [12][13]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rebounded slightly. The demand has declined, the supply is expected to increase year - on - year in the fourth quarter, and the port inventory has risen [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded significantly. The supply of coking coal is slightly tight, and the third - round increase in coke procurement prices has been implemented [17]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures rose. The supply of manganese ore has increased slightly, and the cost has risen. The production of ferroalloys remains high, and the demand is weak [20]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fluctuated slightly. The number of US oil and gas rigs has increased, and OPEC will suspend production increases next year [22][23]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated slightly. The market expects sufficient supply, but there are also positive factors such as sanctions on Russia [25][26]. Polyolefins - On the previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou declined, and the LLDPE price in Yuyao partially fell. The supply is affected by maintenance, the inventory is low, and the demand is weak [28]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. The cost is weak, the supply is affected by maintenance, and the demand from tire enterprises has declined [30]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The supply is affected by bad weather, the demand from tire enterprises has declined, and the inventory has decreased [31]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures fell slightly. The supply exceeds demand, and the cost and profit situation is complex. The demand in the north has entered the off - season [33]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures rose. The supply has increased slightly, the demand is affected by the end of the autumn fertilizer season, and the profit has narrowed [34]. PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures rose. The short - term supply - demand structure has improved, the PXN spread is relatively strong, and the cost is affected by the fluctuating crude oil [37]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures rose. The supply load has been adjusted, the demand from polyester is stable, and the processing fee has declined [38]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures rose. The overall start - up load has decreased, the port inventory has increased, and the demand support is limited [39]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose. The supply remains at a high level, the demand has little change, and the cost drive has increased [40][41]. Bottle Chips - On the previous trading day, bottle chip futures rose. The processing fee has decreased, the supply load is stable, the export growth has slowed down, and it is mainly driven by cost [42]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. The supply is at a high level, the demand from the energy storage and power battery sectors has improved, and the inventory has decreased [43]. Copper - On the previous trading day, copper futures fell. The overseas mine production is disturbed, the supply of copper concentrate is tight, and the high price suppresses consumption [44]. Aluminum - On the previous trading day, aluminum futures showed mixed performance. The supply of alumina is in excess, the electrolytic aluminum production may be affected by winter restrictions, and the consumption is under pressure [46]. Zinc - On the previous trading day, zinc futures rose. The supply of refined zinc is restricted, the demand is weak, and the inventory has decreased slightly [48]. Lead - On the previous trading day, lead futures fell. The production of primary lead is stable, the production of recycled lead recovers slowly, and the high price suppresses demand [50]. Tin - On the previous trading day, tin futures rose. The supply of tin ore is tight, the demand shows certain resilience, and the inventory has decreased [52][53]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, nickel futures rose. The market is worried about supply, the cost of nickel - iron plants is under pressure, the consumption is weak, and the inventory is at a relatively high level [54]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, soybean oil and soybean meal futures rose. The trade sentiment is weak, the soybean supply is loose, the demand for soybean meal is expected to grow moderately, and the demand for soybean oil is suppressed [55][56]. Palm Oil - On the previous trading day, palm oil futures rose. The market is waiting for new data, the domestic import has decreased, and the inventory is at a medium level [57]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - On the previous trading day, the price of rapeseed oil rose, and the price of rapeseed meal was stable. The Canadian rapeseed price has declined, and the domestic inventory of rapeseed and its products is at different levels [59][60]. Cotton - On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures fluctuated slightly, and the overseas cotton price fell. The Sino - US trade relationship is favorable in the medium - long term, but the short - term is affected by harvest pressure [62][63]. Sugar - On the previous trading day, domestic sugar futures fluctuated, and the overseas sugar price rose. The Brazilian sugar production is expected to increase, and the global sugar supply may be in surplus [65]. Apples - On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures rebounded slightly. The opening price is higher than last year, the inventory is lower, and the quality of this year's apples is poor [69]. Live Pigs - On the previous trading day, the national average price of live pigs rose slightly. The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the cost is at a low level [71]. Eggs - On the previous trading day, the price of eggs was stable. The egg - laying hen inventory is at a high level, the supply is sufficient, and the consumption support is weak [73]. Corn and Corn Starch - On the previous trading day, corn and corn starch futures rose. The new - season corn harvest is almost complete, the supply pressure is high, the demand is growing slightly, and the inventory of corn starch is at a high level [76][77][78].

0:00 第八届中国国际进口博览会以及第八届虹桥国际经济论坛正在上海举行。前来出席活动的新加坡学者马凯硕在接受总台《高端访谈》专访时表示，中国的进 博会令人惊叹，对世界意义重大。 新加坡学者 马凯硕：太令人惊叹了。中国是现在世界上唯一一个举办国际进口博览会的国家。中国能举办这样的盛会，真的很有意义。我希望中国的做法 能成为其他国家，尤其是东亚国家的榜样。也希望更多国家举办类似的国际进口博览会。我们确实生活在一个非常小的、相互依存的世界中。因此中国的这 些做法不仅对中国人民有影响，也对全世界有影响。我们现在参加的中国国际进口博览会就能反映这一点。 责编：卢思宇、姚凯红 总台记者 邹韵：这是您第一次参加中国国际进口博览会，您对进博会的整体印象怎么样？进博会有哪些重大意义？尤其像您刚才提到的，在逆全球化、保 护主义抬头的时代背景下，您认为进博会在促进国际贸易与经济合作方面起到了怎样的作用？ ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Thursday, precious metal prices fluctuated and rebounded. The sharp increase in the number of laid - off employees by Challenger companies in the US, with the technology and warehousing and logistics industries being the most affected, led to the dollar index falling below 100 during the day, a slight decline in US stocks, and most metals oscillating upwards [1][3]. - Precious metal prices currently lack significant drivers and are expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term. Attention should be paid to the trading window in December. Before and after the December FOMC meeting, there may be a game about the rate - cut space for next year. In the long term, excessive debt issuance and de - globalization are the core factors driving the decline of the US dollar's credit. Gold is the preferred asset to hedge against the US dollar's credit risk, and the trend of central bank gold purchases globally continues, with the long - term price center of gold expected to rise. Silver's trend is consistent with that of gold, expected to adjust in tandem in the short term and its price center is expected to move up in the long term following gold [3]. - The weekly price range for London gold is expected to be between 3800 and 4200, and for London silver between 46 and 52 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Key Information - In October, the number of laid - off employees by Challenger companies in the US was 153,074, a year - on - year increase of 175.3% (the previous value was a decrease of 25.8%) and a month - on - month increase of 183% (the previous value was a decrease of 37.11%). The lay - offs were mainly concentrated in the technology and warehousing and logistics industries [2]. - The Bank of England kept the benchmark interest rate at 4.00%, in line with market expectations. It is predicted that the inflation rate will drop to 3.1% early next year and stabilize around the 2% target from the second quarter of 2027. The unemployment rate is expected to peak at 5.1% in the second quarter, higher than the 4.9% forecast in August. The Bank of England raised its economic growth forecast for this year from 1.25% to 1.5% and kept the forecasts for 2026 and 2027 unchanged [2]. - According to Revelio Labs data, the number of non - farm payrolls in the US decreased by 9,100 in October, compared with an increase of 33,000 in the previous month. The non - farm payroll report of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has been postponed due to the federal government shutdown [2]. 3.2 Price Logic - The short - term trend of precious metals is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the trading window in December. Personnel changes in the Fed may become a positive driving factor. In the long term, gold is a preferred asset to hedge against the US dollar's credit risk, and the long - term price center of gold is expected to rise. Silver's trend is consistent with that of gold, and its price center is expected to move up in the long term [3]. 3.3 Price Outlook - The weekly price range for London gold is expected to be between 3800 and 4200, and for London silver between 46 and 52 [3]. 3.4 Index Information - The comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities on November 6, 2025, includes the commodity index (2244.89, +0.50%), the commodity 20 index (2541.79, +0.61%), and the industrial products index (2223.51, +0.45%) [43]. - As of November 6, 2025, the precious metals index had a daily increase of 0.83%, a 5 - day decrease of 0.35%, a 1 - month increase of 0.99%, and a year - to - date increase of 46.42% [45].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy in 2025 is experiencing significant divergence, with traditional industries like manufacturing and real estate under pressure from tariffs and immigration policies, while the technology sector is buoyed by a surge in capital expenditure driven by artificial intelligence (AI) [3][5][6]. Supply Side: Tariff and Population Pressures - Tariffs have increased significantly, with the effective tariff rate rising from 2.4% last year to 11.5% this year, leading to a supply contraction effect [7][9]. - Immigration policies have tightened, resulting in a projected decline in population growth from an average of 1.5% during the Biden administration to 0.6% under Trump, which will further suppress labor supply and demand in housing and consumption [8][9]. - The combination of tariffs and reduced immigration is expected to create ongoing supply-side pressures, impacting economic growth potential if productivity does not improve [10]. Demand Side: AI Investment Cycle Fluctuations - AI is contributing approximately 0.7 percentage points to the U.S. GDP growth in the first half of 2025, but the marginal returns on capital investment are expected to decline as investment scales up [13][19]. - Other demand sectors are also facing cooling trends, with the real estate market undergoing active de-inventory and consumer spending showing a "K-shaped" recovery, where high-income groups maintain spending while low-income groups struggle [30][31]. - The AI investment cycle is characterized by heavy capital expenditure, which may not replicate the rapid growth seen during the internet bubble due to higher costs and a more cautious investment environment [19][20]. Inflation: Sticky Dynamics - Inflation is expected to exhibit stickiness, with core goods inflation influenced by tariffs and rental inflation continuing to slow down [4][37]. - Non-rent core service prices are supported by structural demand and labor costs, indicating resilience despite economic pressures [4][38]. - Consumer inflation expectations are rising, complicating the Federal Reserve's ability to achieve its inflation targets, with potential shifts in expectations from 2% to 3% [39][46]. Policy Outlook: Fiscal and Monetary Dynamics - Fiscal and monetary policies are anticipated to marginally loosen, but the overall stimulative effect may be limited due to offsetting tariff revenues [5][45]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 50 basis points in 2026, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3%-3.25% [5][45]. - The economic outlook for 2026 predicts a real GDP growth rate of 1.7%, with risks of "stagflation" emerging from supply-side constraints and demand-side weaknesses [5][54].

Core Viewpoint - The metal sector, represented by gold, silver, copper, and aluminum, has experienced significant volatility this year, with international gold prices surpassing $4000 per ounce for the first time, prompting discussions among investment institutions about the potential onset of a new commodity cycle [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Market Insights - International gold prices have shown a strong upward trend, with COMEX gold futures rising from $2735 per ounce at the beginning of the year to a historical high of over $4000 per ounce, currently stabilizing above this level [1]. - The shift in gold's pricing logic is attributed to two main factors: the global trend of de-dollarization and a crisis of trust driven by de-globalization [1][3]. Group 2: Broader Metal Market Trends - Besides precious metals, non-ferrous and rare metals have also seen upward movements, particularly industrial products like copper, aluminum, rare earths, and lithium, which are benefiting from advancements in artificial intelligence [2]. - The performance of non-ferrous metals is influenced by both the dollar's strength and downstream demand, with aluminum being highlighted as a potential key asset due to its defensive and offensive characteristics [2]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Public funds are optimistic about the potential for a cyclical uptrend in the metal sector, while several futures companies express caution, noting increased upward pressure on precious metals and potential short-term downward risks for non-ferrous metals [2]. - Analysts suggest that while there is medium to long-term investment value in precious and certain non-ferrous metals, the verification of this value may require a longer investment horizon [3].

Market Overview - On November 6, A-shares saw a rally with the Shanghai Composite Index returning above 4000 points, driven by a rebound in computing hardware stocks, leading the ChiNext Index to rise over 2% during the session [6] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4007.76 points, up 0.97%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13452.42 points, up 1.73%; and the ChiNext Index closed at 3224.62 points, up 1.84% [6] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 20,759 billion yuan, an increase of 1,816 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [6] International Market Performance - Japanese and South Korean stock markets both closed higher on November 6, with the Nikkei 225 Index rising 1.34% to 50,883.68 points, led by gains in the electronics and machinery sectors [6] - The Korean Composite Index ended a two-day decline, closing up 0.55% at 4,026.45 points [6] Bond Market - As of the close on November 6, the main contracts for government bonds showed mixed results, with the 30-year government bond futures (TL2512) closing at 116.110 yuan, down 0.330 yuan (0.28%); the 10-year bond futures (T2512) at 108.535 yuan, down 0.095 yuan (0.09%); and the 5-year bond futures (TF2512) at 105.965 yuan, down 0.035 yuan (0.03%) [6] Commodity Market - On November 6, most domestic commodity futures contracts closed higher, with paraxylene rising over 3%, and coking coal, PTA, and caustic soda rising over 2% [7] - The shipping index (European line) fell over 3%, while asphalt dropped over 2% [7] Institutional Insights - Swiss Bank's Nenad Dinic indicated that cyclical and structural favorable factors will support emerging market stocks to maintain strong momentum through 2026 [7] - Industrial Securities noted that the recent volatility in overseas markets is due to weakening fundamentals and liquidity, driven by hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials and concerns over AI giants' capital expenditures [7] - CITIC Securities reported that gold will continue to benefit from global liquidity expansion and preferences driven by de-globalization risks, with multiple factors likely to drive gold prices upward next year [7] Industry Specific Insights - CITIC Securities highlighted that the liquor sector has underperformed significantly since 2025, predicting that the second half of 2025 will mark the bottom of the liquor industry's fundamentals, characterized by weak sales and declining prices [8] - Guotai Junan Securities stated that the high certainty of Federal Reserve rate cuts has not been fully reflected, leading to a valuation digestion phase in Hong Kong stocks, but the core logic of rate cuts remains intact, limiting the downside for Hong Kong stocks [8] - Recent tax policy changes regarding gold by the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation are expected to significantly impact the pricing and overall supply-demand balance in the futures market [8]

华泰证券研报称，上市券商、大型券商2025年前9个月归母净利润同比分别增长62%、56%。大券商三 季报关注四点核心变化：1.三季度总资产扩张延续，金融投资与客户资金双增。2.投资驱动增长，自营 杠杆提升。3.经纪随市高增，融出资金显著增长。4.投行低位回暖，资管稳健。往前看，资本市场底层 逻辑转变，深化投融资协调发展，同时低利率时代资产配置重塑，增量资金形成正循环。在此背景下， 券商经营环境向好，业绩弹性和持续性增强，看好板块高性价比的估值修复机会。当前板块A、H估值 仍处于中低位，标的选择关注：1.港股估值更优、且流通盘更小；2.具备估值性价比的A股龙头；3.特色 中型券商。 NO.3 中信建投：铝强势领跑有色板块，行业利润高位再扩张 ｜2025年11月6日 星期四｜ NO.1 中信证券：展望明年 多种因素仍然很可能主导金价上行 11月6日，中信证券研报指出，总结历史规律，黄金的长期价格走势与地缘政治和经济形势高度相关。 黄金价格上行的驱动力通常来自地缘政治的混乱和美国经济的弱势表现，下行风险则可以总结为五类： 美国经济转好、美联储转鹰、美国强财政纪律、地缘局势缓和、全球央行卖金，而目前这些风险都不显 著 ...

NO.2 华泰证券：看好券商板块高性价比的估值修复机会 华泰证券研报称，上市券商、大型券商2025年前9个月归母净利润同比分别增长62%、56%。大券商三 季报关注四点核心变化：1.三季度总资产扩张延续，金融投资与客户资金双增。2.投资驱动增长，自营 杠杆提升。3.经纪随市高增，融出资金显著增长。4.投行低位回暖，资管稳健。往前看，资本市场底层 逻辑转变，深化投融资协调发展，同时低利率时代资产配置重塑，增量资金形成正循环。在此背景下， 券商经营环境向好，业绩弹性和持续性增强，看好板块高性价比的估值修复机会。当前板块A、H估值 仍处于中低位，标的选择关注：1.港股估值更优、且流通盘更小；2.具备估值性价比的A股龙头；3.特色 中型券商。 NO.3 中信建投：铝强势领跑有色板块，行业利润高位再扩张 NO.1 中信证券：展望明年 多种因素仍然很可能主导金价上行 11月6日，中信证券研报指出，总结历史规律，黄金的长期价格走势与地缘政治和经济形势高度相关。 黄金价格上行的驱动力通常来自地缘政治的混乱和美国经济的弱势表现，下行风险则可以总结为五类： 美国经济转好、美联储转鹰、美国强财政纪律、地缘局势缓和、全球央行卖金，而 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Wednesday saw a slight rebound in precious metal prices, with gold and silver maintaining an overall oscillatory pattern. The U.S. ADP employment data exceeded expectations, and the number of newly - employed people stopped falling and rebounded, recovering from the previous two months' weak employment situation. After the data disclosure, the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields rebounded slightly, while other assets showed a relatively calm performance. Overseas equities oscillated, and commodities rebounded strongly in the short - term [1][4]. - Precious metal prices currently lack significant drivers and are expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term. The trading window in December should be closely watched, as the space for interest rate cuts next year may be speculated around the December FOMC meeting. Additionally, U.S. Treasury official Bessent stated that the nominee for the new Fed Chair is expected to be confirmed before Christmas, and the independence risk brought by personnel changes may become a bullish driver at that time. In the long run, excessive debt issuance and de - globalization are the core factors driving the decline of the U.S. dollar's credit. As a currency beyond sovereignty, gold remains the preferred asset to hedge against the risk of the U.S. dollar's credit. The global central banks' gold - buying trend persists, and the long - term price center of gold is expected to rise. The trend of silver remains consistent with that of gold. In the short term, it is expected to adjust oscillatory in tandem, and in the long run, the depreciation of credit currency will spill over, and the suppression of silver price elasticity due to the relaxed expectation of a U.S. soft landing, so the silver price center is expected to move up in the long term following gold [4][5]. - The weekly price of London gold is expected to be in the range of [3800, 4200], and the price of London silver is expected to be in the range of [46, 52] [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Key Information - In October, the U.S. ADP employment increased by 42,000 people, exceeding the expected increase of 28,000 people. The previous value was revised from a decrease of 32,000 people to a decrease of 29,000 people. ADP reported that last month, U.S. employment rebounded from two months of weakness, but the scope of the rebound was not broad. Education, healthcare, trade, transportation, and utilities led the growth, while employers in professional business services, information, leisure, and the hotel industry laid off employees for the third consecutive month. In October, the year - on - year salary increase remained the same as the previous month, with 4.5% for those who did not change jobs and 6.7% for job - hoppers [2]. - The U.S. Treasury set the quarterly refinancing scale at $125 billion, in line with market expectations. It plans to issue $58 billion of 3 - year Treasury bonds on November 10, $42 billion of 10 - year Treasury bonds on November 12, and $25 billion of 30 - year Treasury bonds on November 13, and keep the new issuance auction scale of 10 - year inflation - protected bonds (TIPS) in January at $21 billion. The U.S. Treasury expects the auction market to remain stable for at least the next few quarters and plans to increase the Treasury issuance scale by mid - 2026 [2]. - The U.S. federal government's "shutdown" has entered its 36th day, breaking the previous record of 35 days from the end of 2018 to the beginning of 2019, becoming the longest - lasting government "shutdown" in U.S. history. The U.S. Congressional Budget Office stated that if the "shutdown" lasts for six weeks, the economic loss will rise to $11 billion, and it is expected that the annual growth rate of the U.S. real GDP in the fourth quarter will decline by 1 - 2 percentage points. The record - breaking "shutdown" has severely impacted people's livelihoods in areas such as U.S. aviation safety and food relief [3]. Price Logic - Wednesday witnessed a slight rebound in precious metal prices, with gold and silver maintaining an overall oscillatory pattern. The U.S. ADP employment data exceeded expectations, and the number of newly - employed people stopped falling and rebounded, recovering from the previous two months' weak employment situation. After the data disclosure, the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields rebounded slightly, while other assets showed a relatively calm performance. Overseas equities oscillated, and commodities rebounded strongly in the short - term [1][4]. - Precious metal prices currently lack significant drivers and are expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term. The trading window in December should be closely watched, as the space for interest rate cuts next year may be speculated around the December FOMC meeting. Additionally, U.S. Treasury official Bessent stated that the nominee for the new Fed Chair is expected to be confirmed before Christmas, and the independence risk brought by personnel changes may become a bullish driver at that time. In the long run, excessive debt issuance and de - globalization are the core factors driving the decline of the U.S. dollar's credit. As a currency beyond sovereignty, gold remains the preferred asset to hedge against the risk of the U.S. dollar's credit. The global central banks' gold - buying trend persists, and the long - term price center of gold is expected to rise. The trend of silver remains consistent with that of gold. In the short term, it is expected to adjust oscillatory in tandem, and in the long run, the depreciation of credit currency will spill over, and the suppression of silver price elasticity due to the relaxed expectation of a U.S. soft landing, so the silver price center is expected to move up in the long term following gold [4][5]. Outlook - The weekly price of London gold is expected to be in the range of [3800, 4200], and the price of London silver is expected to be in the range of [46, 52] [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For Treasury bonds, it is expected that there will be no trending market, and caution should be maintained [6][7]. - For stock index futures, the risk of a significant decline is low, and one can choose an opportunity to go long [9][10]. - For precious metals, the short - term pricing is relatively full. After taking profits on previous long positions, one can wait and observe [11][12]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coils, the medium - term weakness of rebar prices may be difficult to change. One can focus on shorting opportunities at high levels during rebounds [14]. - For iron ore, the market supply - demand pattern has weakened. One can focus on shorting opportunities at high levels [16]. - For coking coal and coke, they may continue to be strong in the short term. One can focus on buying opportunities during pullbacks [19]. - For ferroalloys, the short - term supply may remain in excess. After a decline, one can consider low - level long positions when the spot falls into the loss range again [22]. - For crude oil, the main contract should be temporarily observed [25]. - For fuel oil, one can focus on shorting opportunities for the main contract [28]. - For polyolefins, one can focus on shorting opportunities [30]. - For synthetic rubber, it is expected to oscillate [33]. - For natural rubber, one can focus on going long opportunities [35]. - For PVC, one should focus on changes in the supply side [37]. - For urea, the downward space is limited [38]. - For p - xylene (PX), it may oscillate and adjust in the short term. One should participate within a range and pay attention to controlling positions [42]. - For PTA, it may oscillate in the short term. One should be cautious, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [43]. - For ethylene glycol, it may oscillate weakly in the short term. One should pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [46]. - For staple fiber, it may oscillate following the cost. One should control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [47]. - For bottle chips, it is expected to oscillate following the cost side. One should control risks [48]. - For lithium carbonate, pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [50]. - For copper, it is in a phase of adjustment [52]. - For aluminum, it will run at a high level [55]. - For zinc, it is expected to continue to oscillate within a range [57]. - For lead, one should be cautious about chasing long positions [59]. - For tin, it may oscillate strongly [60]. - For nickel, it may oscillate [61]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, one can consider taking profits on long positions in soybean meal when it continues to rise. One can temporarily observe soybean oil [63]. - For palm oil, one can consider going long during pullbacks [66]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, one can consider buying near - term contracts and selling far - term contracts for rapeseed meal [68]. - For cotton, the upside space is expected to be limited. The price is under pressure [72]. - For sugar, there is certain support at the bottom [75]. - For apples, one should wait and observe [78]. - For live pigs, one can consider shorting opportunities during rebounds [79]. - For eggs, one can continue to hold short positions and pay attention to adding short positions during subsequent rebounds [83]. - For corn and starch, it is advisable to wait and observe for corn. Corn starch may follow the corn market [86]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed down. The 30 - year, 10 - year, and 2 - year main contracts declined, while the 5 - year main contract remained flat. The central bank conducted 655 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 492.2 billion yuan on the day. The US ADP employment data in October was better than expected [5]. - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened. It is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. The treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level. The Chinese economy shows a steady recovery trend, and there is room for domestic demand policies to exert force. The market risk preference has significantly increased. Therefore, it is expected that there will be no trending market for treasury bond futures [6]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The main contracts of CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures rose, while the main contract of SSE 50 stock index futures declined slightly [8][9]. - The domestic economy remains stable, but the macro - economic recovery momentum is not strong, and the corporate profit growth rate is at a low level. However, the domestic asset valuation is at a low level, and there is room for valuation repair. The Chinese economy has sufficient resilience. Recently, market sentiment has significantly warmed up, and incremental funds have continued to enter the market. The uncertainty in Sino - US economic and trade relations has eased. It is expected that the risk of a significant decline is low [9]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, the gold main contract closed down, and the silver main contract closed up. The global trade and financial environment is complex. The trends of "anti - globalization" and "de - dollarization" are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. Central bank gold - buying behavior also supports the gold price. The U.S. labor market has further slowed down, and the Federal Reserve is expected to continue to cut interest rates, which is also beneficial to precious metals. However, the recent increase in precious metals has been large, the pricing is relatively full, the heat is too high, and the volatility has increased [11]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures continued to correct. In the medium term, the price of finished products is dominated by the industrial supply - demand logic. On the demand side, the long - term downward trend of the real estate industry has not reversed, and the demand for rebar is still declining year - on - year. In the medium term, it is the traditional peak demand season, and downstream demand has slightly improved. On the supply side, the over - capacity situation remains unchanged, but due to the deterioration of steel mill profitability, the weekly output of rebar has declined month - on - month. Currently, the rebar inventory is significantly higher than that of the same period last year, and the inventory pressure is obvious. The basic logic of hot - rolled coils is similar to that of rebar [13][14]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures continued to correct. The national daily pig iron output has dropped below 2.4 million tons, which is negative for the iron ore price. On the supply side, the import volume of iron ore and the output of domestic mines have continued to increase month - on - month after the second quarter. It is expected that the iron ore supply will turn to a year - on - year growth trend in the fourth quarter. Since October, the iron ore port inventory has continued to rise, and the current inventory is close to that of the same period last year [16]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures opened low and closed high. For coking coal, production in major producing areas is restricted due to underground and environmental inspections, and the supply is slightly tight. On the demand side, some downstream coking enterprises and intermediate links have appropriately replenished their inventories, and market transactions are performing well. For coke, the third - round increase in the spot purchase price has been initiated but has not been fully implemented. Coking enterprise production is also affected by environmental factors. Due to the significant increase in coking coal prices recently, some coking enterprises have incurred losses and carried out centralized maintenance, resulting in a month - on - month decline in coke supply. Whether downstream steel mills will accept a new round of coke price increases remains to be observed after the compression of blast furnace profits [18][19]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, the main contracts of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron rose. The shipping volume of manganese ore from Gabon has rebounded, and the supply of Australian ore has increased since June. The port manganese ore inventory has slightly rebounded, and the port manganese ore quotation has stabilized at a low level. The main - producing area electricity price has stabilized, and the prices of coke and semi - coke have recovered from a low level. The cost of ferroalloys has increased from a low level. The output of rebar by sample building material steel mills last week was lower than that of the same period in 2024. The long - process gross profit of rebar in September declined. The production of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron has remained at a high level, and the demand for ferroalloys is weak. The short - term supply is still in excess. The exchange warehouse receipts have started to be registered rapidly, and the supply surplus has continued to drive inventory accumulation [21]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil opened low and closed high, closing above the 5 - day moving average. The U.S. government shutdown has suspended the release of the CFTC position report. The number of U.S. oil and gas rigs has increased for the second consecutive week, reaching the highest level since June. India's largest Russian oil buyer will comply with Western sanctions on Moscow while maintaining relationships with existing oil suppliers [23]. - Although the number of Baker Hughes rigs has increased again, it is still a long way to go for the U.S. to increase crude oil production. U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies are positive for crude oil prices. OPEC will suspend production increases next year, which gives confidence to the crude oil market and supports the oil price increase [24]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward and broke below the moving average group. The delay in the resumption of the crude oil unit of Kuwait's al - Zour refinery has boosted the fuel oil market. The crack spread of Asian ultra - low - sulfur fuel oil has reached the highest level in more than three weeks. It is expected that the supply of the Asian fuel oil market will be abundant in November, but the fundamentals may potentially support a moderate price increase. The east - west arbitrage spread has narrowed, and the amount of fuel oil arbitrage from Europe in December will decrease, reducing the Asian fuel oil supply. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is supported by the robust downstream marine fuel oil demand, but the increase in the sales of marine fuel oil loaded in the second half of November may drag down the spot spread [26][27]. - The market expects sufficient fuel oil supply, which is negative for the fuel oil price. Sanctions on Russia and the reduction of Sino - US trade frictions are positive for the fuel oil price [27]. Polyolefins - On the previous trading day, the offer in the Hangzhou PP market declined. The global economic environment is weak, and merchants are cautious about the future market and offer discounts to promote transactions. In the Yuyao market, the price of LLDPE partially decreased. Merchants are actively selling goods to maintain the de - stocking rhythm, and the transaction center of gravity has continued to move down [29]. - On the supply side, the impact of maintenance in November is expected to be 416,000 tons, still at a high level of maintenance within the year. On the inventory side, the social inventory and downstream factory inventory are lower than the same period last year. Currently, the market sentiment is cautious, but there may be a collective replenishment in the future. On the demand side, the peak season for the start - up of agricultural films and packaging films in November is not prosperous, which exerts pressure on prices [29]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber declined. The cost side is weak, which has continuously pressured the negotiation center of gravity on the spot side. The price on the futures market has oscillated downward, and the price difference with natural rubber has widened to 4,000 yuan. It is expected that the downward space is limited. One should pay attention to the raw material market and supply - side changes in the future [31]. - The domestic butadiene market has accelerated its decline, reaching a new low for the year. The impact of the maintenance of the cis - butadiene units of Qilu Petrochemical and Yangzi Petrochemical has emerged, and the weekly production and capacity utilization rate have decreased slightly. The start - up rate of tire sample enterprises has declined this cycle, and the end - of - month shipments are relatively concentrated, which is conducive to inventory digestion. It is expected that the inventory of sample production enterprises and sample trading enterprises will slightly decrease next week [31][32]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - standard rubber declined. The spot price in Shanghai has been adjusted downward, and the basis has remained stable. Last week, the price on the futures market oscillated, and there was a correction at the end of the week. In the future, one should focus on the phenological conditions in the producing areas and demand expectations [34]. - Overseas producing areas such as southern Thailand and Vietnam, as well as Hainan in China, have been affected by typhoons and heavy rainfall, resulting in不畅 raw material release and high raw material procurement prices. The start - up rate of tire sample enterprises has declined this cycle, and the end - of - month shipments are relatively concentrated, which is conducive to inventory digestion. The natural rubber inventory has continued to decline in both deep - and light - colored rubber, with a significant decline in light - colored rubber. The latest data shows that Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) in the first three quarters of 2025 totaled 1.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8% [34]. PVC - On the previous trading day, the main contract of PVC declined, and the spot price was adjusted downward. The basis remained stable. The current situation of oversupply in the PVC market continues, but the space for a further significant downward movement may be limited. It still needs to wait for the fundamentals to further improve. After the holiday, one should focus on exports and supply reduction [36]. - According to Longzhong data, the capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises this week has increased month - on - month and decreased year - on - year. Some downstream enterprises in the north have entered the off - season of demand, and their start - up rates are planned to be reduced. Affected by Indian holidays and anti - dumping duties, exports are mainly in a wait - and - see state and are expected to continue to decline. The overall digestion of PVC has decreased. In terms of cost and profit, coal prices have corrected, and semi - coke prices have increased. Due to unstable power supply and peak - shifting production, the calcium carbide price is relatively firm. The social inventory of PVC has decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [36][37]. Urea - On the previous trading day, the main contract of urea rose. The price in Shandong Linyi remained stable. The basis has slightly narrowed. In the short term, one should pay attention to changes in export policies and signals of seasonal recovery in agricultural demand. It is expected that urea will fluctuate within a narrow range this week [38]. - Some previously shut - down urea production devices have gradually resumed operation this week, but they have not fully recovered, and production has increased slightly. The tail orders of autumn fertilizers are coming to an end, and some start - up rates may be affected. Coal prices have remained stable, and the cost side has basically remained the same. The factory quotes of urea this period first decreased and then increased slightly, but the overall average price has decreased, and the urea profit has continued to narrow. Only the new coal gasification process has a small profit, while the fixed - bed natural gas process is significantly in the red. The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises has decreased compared with last week [38]. p - Xylene (PX) - On the previous trading day, the main contract of PX rose slightly. The PXN spread has been adjusted, and the PX - MX spread has declined. The operating rate of PX has increased to 87%. Fujia Dahua restarted at the end of October and produced products at the beginning of November. In September, the mainland's PX import volume decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The oil price is still in a volatile and stalemate rhythm after the rebound from sanctions on Russia. One should pay attention to the situation in Venezuela [39]. - In the short term, the PX supply - demand structure has improved, the PXN spread is relatively firm, and the supply has slightly decreased. The cost - side crude oil is in a volatile adjustment. Therefore, PX may oscillate and adjust in the short term. One should participate within a range, control positions, be vigilant about crude oil changes, and pay attention to macro - policy changes [40][42]. PTA - On the previous trading day, the main contract of PTA2601 rose slightly. On the supply side, Yisheng Dahua has slightly reduced its load, and the PTA operating rate has been adjusted to around 78%. Dushan Energy's 4th - phase 3 - million - ton PTA project has been put into production in October and is currently operating on two lines. In November, the planned PTA maintenance is expected to be more than restarts. Many PTA production facilities have planned maintenance. On the demand side, the polyester device has changed little, and the polyester operating rate is 91.7%. The start - up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang terminals has increased, and factory raw material inventory has increased. In terms of efficiency, due to the mismatch between upstream and downstream, profits have been concentrated upstream, and the PTA processing fee has continued to decline [43]. - In the short term, the PTA processing fee is still low, the inventory is maintained at a low level, and the