今年以来，贵金属市场上演了一场行情"接力赛"：黄金领涨，白银后来居上。其中，纽约期金和伦敦金现货累计涨逾70%，沪金期货涨近65%；纽约期银 及伦敦银现货累计涨逾170%，沪银期货涨逾155%。 本轮贵金属"牛市"背后的深层逻辑 这场轰轰烈烈的行情背后，最大的催化因素究竟是什么？又折射出了怎样的深层逻辑？期货日报记者就此采访了多位市场人士，他们将催化因素归结为以 下几点：市场对美元信用的担忧引发全球"去美元化"趋势、美联储进入降息周期、美国财政政策扩张、美国关税政策多变及地缘政治风险上升。 首先是市场对美元信用的担忧，引发全球主要央行持续购金。海通期货研究所贵金属研究员顾佳男向记者表示，自2022年俄罗斯外汇储备遭遇"冻结"后， 黄金作为"非主权信用资产"的战略价值日益凸显。 在全球"去美元化"趋势与美国政府债务规模持续膨胀的背景下，各国央行基于外汇储备多元化与资产安全的长远考量，持续增持黄金并逐步减少在伦敦等 传统金融中心的托管规模。这一结构性、趋势性的央行"购金潮"，为金价构筑了坚实的长期底部支撑。 其次是美国财政政策扩张与货币宽松的催化作用。五矿期货研究中心贵金属研究员钟俊轩表示，黄金和美债在资产配置中 ...

今年以来，贵金属市场上演了一场行情"接力赛"：黄金领涨，白银后来居上。其中，纽约期金和伦敦金 现货累计涨逾70%，沪金期货涨近65%；纽约期银及伦敦银现货累计涨逾170%，沪银期货涨逾155%。 本轮贵金属"牛市"背后的深层逻辑 这场轰轰烈烈的行情背后，最大的催化因素究竟是什么？又折射出了怎样的深层逻辑？期货日报记者就 此采访了多位市场人士，他们将催化因素归结为以下几点：市场对美元信用的担忧引发全球"去美元 化"趋势、美联储进入降息周期、美国财政政策扩张、美国关税政策多变及地缘政治风险上升。 首先是市场对美元信用的担忧，引发全球主要央行持续购金。海通期货研究所贵金属研究员顾佳男向记 者表示，自2022年俄罗斯外汇储备遭遇"冻结"后，黄金作为"非主权信用资产"的战略价值日益凸显。 在全球"去美元化"趋势与美国政府债务规模持续膨胀的背景下，各国央行基于外汇储备多元化与资产安 全的长远考量，持续增持黄金并逐步减少在伦敦等传统金融中心的托管规模。这一结构性、趋势性的央 行"购金潮"，为金价构筑了坚实的长期底部支撑。 其次是美国财政政策扩张与货币宽松的催化作用。五矿期货研究中心贵金属研究员钟俊轩表示，黄金和 美债在资产 ...

今年以来，贵金属市场上演了一场行情"接力赛"：黄金领涨，白银后来居上。其中，纽约期金和伦敦金现货累计涨逾70%，沪金期货涨近65%；纽约期银 及伦敦银现货累计涨逾170%，沪银期货涨逾155%。 编者按：今年以来，贵金属市场"牛气冲天"。2026年是"盛宴"尾声还是新周期的起点？期货日报即日起推出"破译金属新主线"栏目，全面梳理金属"牛 市"脉络，敬请关注。 点此追踪史诗级行情 本轮贵金属"牛市"背后的深层逻辑 这场轰轰烈烈的行情背后，最大的催化因素究竟是什么？又折射出了怎样的深层逻辑？期货日报记者就此采访了多位市场人士，他们将催化因素归结为以 下几点：市场对美元信用的担忧引发全球"去美元化"趋势、美联储进入降息周期、美国财政政策扩张、美国关税政策多变及地缘政治风险上升。 首先是市场对美元信用的担忧，引发全球主要央行持续购金。海通期货研究所贵金属研究员顾佳男向记者表示，自2022年俄罗斯外汇储备遭遇"冻结"后， 黄金作为"非主权信用资产"的战略价值日益凸显。 在全球"去美元化"趋势与美国政府债务规模持续膨胀的背景下，各国央行基于外汇储备多元化与资产安全的长远考量，持续增持黄金并逐步减少在伦敦等 传统金融中心的 ...

12月26日下午，沪深两市震荡上行，盘面上，贵金属板块集体拉升。截至13点50分，有色金属 ETF(159871)涨3.92%，永兴材料、江西铜业、国城矿业涨停10%，中矿资源涨超8%，紫金矿业等涨超 4%！ 风险提示：基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 资讯所属栏目还有更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 华创证券2026年度投资策略认为，黄金方面，央行购金支撑黄金长期需求，中国央行黄金储备仍有上行 空间;降息周期助推投资金需求走强。 白银方面，供需持续有缺口&国内低库存支撑，银价上涨弹性 强。投资建议上面建议看好逆全球化下美元信用走弱带来的贵金属长期配置价值。 综合看，有色金属板块长期景气趋势延续，建议关注有色金属ETF(159871)把握结构性机会。 消息面上，12月26日，国际现货金、银价格再创历史新高。自12月25日夜盘时段起，贵金属价格再度强 势走高，并一直延续到12月26日亚洲时段开盘。现货黄金（伦敦金现）一度触及每盎司4531.284美元的 创纪录高位。现货白银（伦敦银现）连续突破每盎司73美元、74美元和75美元关口，最高触及75.142美 元/盎司。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings in the given content. Core Views - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to face some pressure, maintain a cautious stance [5][6]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The volatility center is expected to gradually move up, and investors can choose the right time to go long [8][9]. - **Precious Metals**: Market volatility will significantly increase, and investors can exit long positions and wait and see [10][11]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils**: Prices may continue to oscillate weakly. Investors can pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds and manage positions carefully [12][13]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern is weak. Investors can pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels and manage positions carefully [15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: May continue to oscillate in the short term. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities at low levels and manage positions carefully [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: Overall surplus pressure persists. After a decline, investors can consider long positions at low levels when spot losses expand [20][21]. - **Crude Oil**: With high uncertainty in the market, it is advisable to watch more and trade less during the holiday season [24]. - **Fuel Oil**: The cost end is stable, but there is a large rebound space. It is recommended to wait and see [26][27][28]. - **Polyolefins**: The market is in a negative feedback stage, but the reduction of standard product supply may boost market sentiment. Investors can pay attention to long - buying opportunities [30][31]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Expected to oscillate [32][34]. - **Natural Rubber**: Expected to oscillate with a multi - empty game [35][36]. - **PVC**: The supply exceeds demand, and the downward space is limited. Pay attention to changes in the supply side [37][38]. - **Urea**: The market is expected to fluctuate narrowly, and the downward space is limited [38][39]. - **PX**: May adjust in a slightly stronger oscillatory manner in the short term. Pay attention to opportunities to participate at low levels [40]. - **PTA**: The medium - and long - term supply - demand outlook is good. Investors can consider participating at low levels following the cost end and control risks [41]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: May maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern. Investors can participate within a range and be cautious about the upside [42][44]. - **Short - Fiber**: May oscillate following raw material prices. Pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [45]. - **Bottle - Grade PET**: Expected to follow the cost end. The supply - demand structure has improved slightly [46]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There is short - term support for prices due to the mismatch between supply and demand. Pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [47]. - **Copper**: Prices will remain at a high level, but be cautious about chasing the rise [48][49]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to oscillate at a high level [50][51]. - **Zinc**: Expected to oscillate and adjust [52][53]. - **Lead**: Expected to oscillate weakly within a range [54][55][56]. - **Tin**: Expected to oscillate in a slightly stronger manner [57]. - **Nickel**: The first - grade nickel is in an oversupply situation. Pay attention to relevant policies in Indonesia [58]. - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: Soybean meal can focus on long - buying opportunities in the low - cost support range, and soybean oil can consider long - buying opportunities for call options in the low - level range [59][60]. - **Palm Oil**: It is recommended to wait and see [61][63]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: It is recommended to wait and see [64][65]. - **Cotton**: Prices are expected to be strong [66][69][70]. - **Sugar**: After a significant rebound in the market, the upward space may be limited. It is recommended to wait and see [71][74][75]. - **Apples**: Prices are expected to be strong [76][77][78]. - **Hogs**: It is recommended to wait and see, and continue to track the large - weight hog slaughter rhythm and consumption changes [79][80]. - **Eggs**: Consider a positive spread strategy [81][82]. - **Corn and Starch**: Wait for the release of supply pressure. Corn starch may follow the corn market [83][84]. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: The main contracts of treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell by 0.24%, 0.02%, 0.03%, and 0.02% respectively [5]. - **Policy and Macroeconomic Situation**: The central bank carried out a 400 - billion - yuan 1 - year MLF operation, with 300 billion yuan of MLF maturing on the same day. The RMB against the US dollar has appreciated. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose [5]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: The stock index futures showed mixed trends. The main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM rose by 0.32%, 0.27%, 0.97%, and 1.16% respectively [7]. - **Industry News**: In November 2025, domestic mobile phone shipments increased by 1.9% year - on - year, and 5G mobile phones accounted for 91.6%. From January to November, 2.58 million urban old - community renovation projects started nationwide, and 22 regions and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps completed the annual plan [7][8]. - **Market Analysis**: The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak, and corporate profit growth is low. However, asset valuations are low, and the economy has sufficient resilience. Market sentiment has warmed up, and incremental funds have entered the market. The uncertainty of Sino - US economic and trade relations has eased [8]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: The main contract of gold closed at 1,008.76, with a decline of 0.58%; the main contract of silver closed at 17,397, with a decline of 1.20% [10]. - **Market Analysis**: The complex global trade and financial environment and the trend of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. Central bank gold - buying supports the price, but the recent sharp rise has led to a significant increase in speculative sentiment [10]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Performance**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures oscillated weakly. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,960 yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was 3,180 - 3,310 yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3,260 - 3,280 yuan/ton [12]. - **Market Analysis**: In the medium term, prices are dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. The real - estate industry's downward trend has not reversed, and demand is in a year - on - year decline. The market will enter the demand off - season. Supply pressure has eased, but inventory is higher than last year, and the inventory consumption speed is fast [12][13]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: Iron ore futures oscillated and consolidated. The port spot price of PB powder was 788 yuan/ton, and that of Super Special powder was 670 yuan/ton [15]. - **Market Analysis**: Since October, the daily output of hot metal has declined. The supply - demand pattern is weak, with imports increasing year - on - year, domestic production lower than last year, and port inventory at the highest level in the past five years [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: Coking coal and coke futures oscillated narrowly [17]. - **Market Analysis**: For coking coal, production has decreased in December, and downstream procurement has increased. For coke, the third - round price cut of spot procurement has started. Coking enterprises' operations are stable, but environmental protection has increased restrictions. Steel mills' demand for coke has weakened [17]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: The main contract of manganese - silicon rose 0.48% to 5,846 yuan/ton, and the main contract of silicon - iron rose 0.85% to 5,692 yuan/ton. Tianjin manganese - silicon spot price fell 50 yuan/ton to 5,650 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia silicon - iron price remained flat at 5,270 yuan/ton [20]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply of manganese ore from Gabon has decreased, and the supply of Australian ore has returned to normal. The cost of ferroalloys has fluctuated narrowly at a low level. The production of ferroalloys has continued to decline, and demand is weak, but the overall surplus pressure persists [20][21]. Crude Oil - **Market News**: As of the week ending December 9, fund managers reduced their net short positions in US crude oil futures and options. The number of active oil and gas rigs in the US decreased for the second consecutive week. Barclays maintained its 2026 Brent crude oil price forecast at $65 per barrel, and the supply - demand imbalance is expected to widen [22][23]. - **Market Analysis**: The reduction of net short positions by US funds indicates short - covering. The US sanctions on Venezuelan oil tankers are beneficial to oil prices, but the Russia - Ukraine peace talks increase the uncertainty of oil prices. It is advisable to watch more and trade less during the holiday season [22][24]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: Fuel oil oscillated upward and closed above the 20 - day moving average [26]. - **Market Analysis**: The Asian fuel - oil market is generally stable, and the spot price difference of high - sulfur fuel oil remains at a discount. The cost end is stable, and there is a large rebound space [26][27][28]. Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: The low - end prices in the Hangzhou PP market rebounded slightly, and the LLDPE price in the Yuyao market increased by 30 - 120 yuan/ton [30]. - **Market Analysis**: Polyolefin production enterprises are expected to be generally stable with minor fluctuations. The supply - side pressure of standard products is expected to slow down slightly. Downstream factory operating rates are expected to decline, and they mainly replenish inventory at low prices. Near the end of the month and the year, enterprises have the intention to reduce inventory by lowering prices [30]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: The main contract of synthetic rubber rose 0.76%, and the mainstream price in Shandong was adjusted up to 11,750 yuan/ton, with the basis remaining stable [32]. - **Market Analysis**: The price of raw material butadiene has risen unexpectedly, providing strong cost support. The supply is abundant, but the demand from downstream tire enterprises is weak, and the inventory in mainstream warehouses has decreased, while the social inventory has continued to accumulate [32][33]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: The main contract of natural rubber rose 1.91%, and the 20 - rubber main contract rose 1.48%. The Shanghai spot price was adjusted up to around 15,400 yuan/ton, with the basis remaining stable [35]. - **Market Analysis**: The domestic production area is accelerating the suspension of production, and the overseas raw - material price is high. The demand from tire enterprises is weak, and the inventory has continued to accumulate. The sales of heavy - duty trucks in November increased year - on - year [35]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The main contract of PVC rose 0.34%, and the spot price remained stable, with the basis remaining stable [37]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply exceeds demand, but the downward space is limited. The supply has decreased slightly due to temporary production cuts, and the demand from downstream enterprises has declined. The cost of raw materials is stable, and the profit of the chlor - alkali industry has increased. The social inventory has decreased slightly [37]. Urea - **Market Performance**: The main contract of urea rose 0.34%, and the price in Shandong Linyi remained stable, with the basis remaining stable [38]. - **Market Analysis**: The daily output of urea is expected to fluctuate narrowly. The demand from compound - fertilizer enterprises is expected to increase slightly. The coal price is stable, and the industry profit has rebounded slightly. The enterprise inventory is lower than expected, and the port inventory is in line with expectations [38]. PX - **Market Performance**: The main contract of PX2603 rose 0.46% during the day and 1.72% at night. The PXN spread was adjusted to $350 per ton [40]. - **Market Analysis**: The PX operating rate remained at 88.1%, and the spot liquidity was tight, and inventory was low. Zhejiang Petrochemical plans to reduce production by about 10% in January 2026. The short - term PXN spread has been repaired to a moderately high level, and the short - process profit has continued to improve. PX is expected to oscillate in a slightly stronger manner in the short term [40]. PTA - **Market Performance**: The main contract of PTA2605 rose 0.98% during the day and 1.64% at night [41]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply of PTA has increased, and the demand from the polyester industry has declined. The export of PTA in November increased significantly month - on - month. The processing fee has rebounded, and the inventory remains low. The medium - and long - term supply - demand outlook is good, and it is advisable to participate at low levels following the cost end [41]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The main contract of ethylene glycol rose 2.25% due to the planned maintenance of a Taiwanese device [42]. - **Market Analysis**: The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol has increased slightly. Two Taiwanese devices plan to shut down for maintenance, which will slightly relieve the supply pressure. However, the port inventory has continued to accumulate, and the expected arrival at the port has increased. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term [42][43][44]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: The main contract of short - fiber 2602 rose 0.96% [45]. - **Market Analysis**: The production of short - fiber has decreased but remains at a relatively high level. The raw - material procurement of downstream factories has increased, and the cost - driving force has strengthened. Short - fiber is expected to oscillate following raw material prices [45]. Bottle - Grade PET - **Market Performance**: The main contract of bottle - grade PET 2603 rose 1.44%, and the processing fee rebounded to around 500 yuan/ton [46]. - **Market Analysis**: The production of bottle - grade PET has decreased slightly, and the export growth rate has increased. The supply - demand structure has improved slightly, and it is expected to follow the cost end [46]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract rose 0.44% to 123,520 yuan/ton [47]. - **Market Analysis**: The production of lithium carbonate remains at a high level, and the supply - side profit is sufficient. The demand from the energy - storage and power - battery sectors has improved, and the social inventory has gradually decreased. There is short - term support for prices due to the mismatch between supply and demand [47]. Copper - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai copper closed at 97,680 yuan/ton, with a rise of 2.51% [48]. - **Market Analysis**: The macro - economic data in the US is mixed. The fundamentals remain in a tight balance, and the supply shortage risk remains unresolved. The demand has short - term pressure, and the actual available inventory of electrolytic copper is low. The upward movement of copper prices is mainly due to short - term speculative buying, and it is necessary to be cautious about chasing the rise [48]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 22,305 yuan/ton, with a rise of 0.61%; the main contract of alumina closed at 2,635 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.38% [50]. - **Market Analysis**: The alumina price has fallen below the average cash cost, and the supply surplus pressure remains unchanged. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable, and the demand is average. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [50][51]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai zinc closed at 23,105 yuan/ton, with a rise of 0.43% [52]. - **Market Analysis**: The processing fee of zinc concentrate is under pressure, and the production of refined zinc has continued to decline. The demand from downstream industries has decreased, and the LME zinc inventory has increased significantly. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate and adjust [52][53]. Lead - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai lead closed at 17,265 yuan/ton

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has surpassed the 7.0 mark against the USD for the first time in 2024, reaching a high of 6.9985, while the onshore RMB also broke the 7.01 threshold, marking a new high since September 27, 2024 [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The 7.0 level is a significant "watershed" for the RMB exchange rate, causing market participants to hold their breath as it approaches [2]. - The short-term probability of the RMB breaking 7 is high, but sustaining below this level in the long term faces multiple uncertainties [3]. - The recent RMB appreciation is attributed to a combination of factors that have been building up over time [4]. Group 2: External Influences - The weakening of the USD index has created favorable external conditions, with the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle since September, reducing rates by a total of 75 basis points this year [5][8]. - The expectation of continued rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has led to a significant drop in the USD index, facilitating the appreciation of the RMB and other non-USD currencies [8]. Group 3: Domestic Factors - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has adopted a relaxed stance towards the RMB's appreciation, allowing the currency to strengthen without intervention, as indicated by the adjustment of the counter-cyclical factor to a positive value [9][11]. - Year-end corporate foreign exchange settlements have contributed to the RMB's appreciation, as companies convert their foreign earnings into RMB [12][13]. Group 4: Economic Context - The current RMB appreciation reflects a broader struggle for "pricing power" and "game rules" in the global market, with the U.S. attempting to reverse its industrial hollowing through protectionist measures [16][17]. - China's response has been to avoid excessive competition and allow the RMB to appreciate, thereby shifting costs to Western economies [18][21]. - The recent trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion for the first 11 months of the year indicates China's strong export performance amid these dynamics [18]. Group 5: Strategic Implications - The current RMB appreciation is seen as a strategic move by the state to prepare for manufacturing upgrades, although there may be measures to control rapid appreciation in the short term [21][22].

重要信息点评 1、国家统计局公布数据显示，11月份，全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长4.8%，服务业生产指数同比 增长4.2%，社会消费品零售总额同比增长1.3%。1-11月份，全国固定资产投资同比下降2.6%，其中， 制造业投资增长1.9%，房地产开发投资下降15.9%。11月全国城镇调查失业率持平于5.1%。 2、美国劳工统计局公布数据显示，美国11月非农就业人口增加6.4万人，高于市场预期的5万人；但失 业率却意外升至4.6%，创下2021年9月以来的新高。另外，10月非农就业大幅减少10.5万人，远超预期 的下降2.5万人；8月和9月也合计下修3.3万人。11月平均时薪同比增长3.5%，为2021年5月以来最低增 速。 3、美国11月核心CPI同比上涨2.6%，创下2021年初以来最慢增速，低于市场预期的3%。整体CPI同比上 涨2.7%，低于预期的3.1%。不过，由于数据采集受到联邦政府停摆的严重干扰，这份通胀报告的可靠 性受到市场质疑。 4、商务部、央行、金融监管总局发布《关于加强商务和金融协同更大力度提振消费的通知》，针对深 化商务和金融系统协作、加大消费重点领域金融支持、扩大政金企对接合作三个方 ...

该板块上，湖南黄金主营业务为黄金及锑、钨等有色金属矿山的开采、选矿，金锑钨等有色金属的冶炼 及加工，黄金、精锑的深加工及有色金属矿产品的进出口业务等，公司黄金产量湖南省第一，锑锭及氧 化锑产量位居全国第二。2025年三季报，公司每股收益0.66元，归母净利润102879.93万元，净利润同比 增长率54.28%。 湖南黄金今年1月2日开盘价为15.86元/股，12月24日收盘价为21.62元/股，到目前为止年内涨幅约36%。 不过，记者注意到，湖南黄金4月22日股价曾达到26.76元/股，与年初开盘价相比涨幅接近70%。 湖南白银的主营业务为白银、电解铅、黄金、电积铜、银制品等有色金属及贵金属产品的冶炼和销售， 公司白银年产量居全国同类企业前列。2025年三季报，公司每股收益0.06元，归母净利润15855.81万 元，净利润同比增长率28.44%。 湖南白银今年1月2日开盘价为3.42元/股，12月24日收盘价为6.75元/股，到目前为止年内涨幅约98%。记 者注意到，湖南白银10月14日股价曾达到8.28元/股，与年初开盘价相比涨幅接近150%。 业内人士表示，目前美元进入降息周期，并且受逆全球化、地区冲 ...

今年以来，白银价格大幅上涨，主要受到三大核心因素驱动：一是全球白银市场长期存在供应缺口，显 性库存持续下降至危险水平；二是美国关税政策引发市场对实物供应的担忧，加剧库存转移与挤仓压 力；三是美联储进入降息周期，提升市场流动性及风险偏好，强化了白银的金融属性。 值得注意的是，明年年初彭博商品指数和标普高盛商品指数调参可能会带来被动管理资金的抛压，预计 分别占黄金和白银总持仓的2.6%和8.6%。虽然绝对规模上黄金卖盘（约50亿美元）大于白银卖盘（约 40亿美元），但是相较黄金的市场体量而言，白银市场体量相对偏低，受调参的影响预计会大于黄金。 中期来看，白银的价格锚依然是黄金。在全球依然处于降息周期以及逆全球化暗流涌动的宏观背景下， 贵金属板块整体上行趋势有望延续。在此周期中，白银的价格波动幅度通常大于黄金，往往具备更高的 配置收益潜力，这也意味着白银可能面临比黄金更大的短期回撤风险。因此，中期有意参与白银市场的 交易者需要有更强的风险承受能力和仓位管理意识。 长期来看，除投资需求外，白银的工业需求为价格提供了坚实的基本面支撑。光伏、新能源汽车、AI 算力服务器及5G通信等领域的用银量保持强劲增长，其中光伏产业的 ...

2025年，地缘冲突的硝烟还未散去，世界变乱交织的形势依旧，保护主义与"逆全球化"的寒流时而加 剧，世界经济大船行进在风高浪急之中。然而，正是在这片晦明交织的图景中，一股源自历史深处、勃 兴于时代潮头的磅礴力量成为这一年最显著的印记。在前所未有的群体性崛起中，全球南方成长为世界 经济稳定增长的"新引擎"，中国则是全球南方当之无愧的"稳定器"。 大道不孤，众行致远。回顾2025年，全球南方并非被动应对困境，而是以团结铸就力量。中国作为全球 南方的天然一员，不仅提供了物质支撑，更传递了新发展理念，推动全球南方从"跟随者"转向"引领 者"。展望2026年，全球南方经济将在逆势、向新与团结的交汇中，书写崭新篇章。我们共同期待，一 个更加均衡、包容的世界经济格局，就此徐徐展开。 全球挑战中的南方韧性 2025年的世界经济笼罩在多重阴影之下。地缘政治博弈白热化，乌克兰危机延宕、其他地区冲突热点不 断，与气候变化、粮食能源安全危机相互叠加，制造了罕见的复合型压力。世界银行数据显示，全球仍 有8.17亿人处于极端贫困，其中60%集中在撒哈拉以南非洲。与此同时，全球治理的"西方支柱"出现动 摇。特朗普再次上台后，关闭了主导战后 ...