1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. There is still some pressure on treasury bond futures, and caution is advised [6]. - The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak, and corporate profit growth is at a low level. However, domestic asset valuations are low, and there is room for repair. The stock index fluctuation center is expected to gradually move up, and previous long positions can be held [9]. - The global trade - financial environment is complex. The trend of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold, but the recent sharp rise in precious metals has led to a significant increase in speculative sentiment. It is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see [11]. - The supply - demand pattern of steel products and iron ore is weak, and they may continue the weak shock pattern in the short - term. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips and manage positions carefully [14][16]. - The supply - demand pattern of coking coal and coke is complex. They may continue the shock pattern in the medium - term, and investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low levels [19]. - The overall over - supply pressure of ferroalloys continues, but the cost support is gradually strengthening. After the price drops, attention can be paid to the long - position opportunities in the low - level range [21]. - The negotiation between the US and Iran is complex, and geopolitical risks still exist. The capital is still bullish on crude oil prices, and the rebound of crude oil is expected to continue [24]. - The tight supply of Singapore fuel oil has eased, but the rebound of crude oil at the cost end drives the fuel oil price to rebound, and there is still room for the fuel oil price to rise [27]. - As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand for polyolefins will decrease significantly, and cautious operation is recommended before the festival [29]. - Synthetic rubber may show a relatively strong shock trend, and attention should be paid to the resumption of logistics and infrastructure construction after the Lantern Festival and the inventory destocking rate of tire enterprises [31]. - Natural rubber may show a shock trend, and positions should be controlled before the festival [34]. - PVC may show a relatively strong shock trend, and the key to price and inventory lies in the demand recovery after the Spring Festival [36]. - Urea may show a shock - strong trend, and attention should be paid to Indian tenders, domestic policies, and the recovery rhythm of downstream demand after the festival [39]. - PX may be mainly in shock adjustment in the short - term, and cautious participation is recommended, paying attention to the fluctuation risk of overseas crude oil during the Spring Festival [42]. - PTA may be in shock operation in the short - term, and it is recommended to operate carefully, paying attention to oil price changes [43]. - Ethylene glycol may maintain a shock - bottoming pattern in the short - term, and it is recommended to operate carefully, paying attention to port inventory and supply changes [45]. - Short - fiber is still trading based on the cost - end logic before the festival, and it is recommended to wait and see carefully, paying attention to cost changes and downstream pre - holiday stocking [46]. - Bottle chips are expected to follow the cost - end operation, and cautious participation is recommended before the festival, paying attention to the implementation of maintenance devices [49]. - The fundamentals of soda ash are still loose, and it should be treated with caution [50]. - The fundamentals of glass are still loose, and it is expected to be in shock before the festival, paying attention to the risk of returning to the fundamentals [51]. - The seasonal characteristics of caustic soda are significant, and although the disk rose yesterday, the fundamentals of the middle and lower reaches have not improved significantly, so it should be treated with caution [54]. - Pulp is expected to have limited fluctuations before the festival due to factors such as inventory accumulation and weak terminal demand [57]. - The price of lithium carbonate has short - term support, but the short - term fluctuation may increase, and risk control is necessary [58]. - Copper prices may be weakly adjusted before the festival due to weakening market sentiment and fundamentals [60]. - Aluminum prices may be under pressure as speculative funds leave the market this month [62]. - Zinc prices will enter an adjustment period as market sentiment cools and zinc ingots accumulate [64]. - Lead prices may show a weak shock trend due to the weak supply - demand pattern [66]. - Tin prices have support below, but short - term fluctuations may intensify, and risk control is necessary [67]. - Nickel is still in an oversupply pattern, and attention should be paid to relevant Indonesian policies [69]. - For soybean meal, attention can be paid to long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range; for soybean oil, it is advisable to wait and see after the price leaves the low - cost range [71]. - For palm oil, attention can be paid to the opportunity of buying on dips [73]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, it is recommended to wait and see temporarily [76]. - Cotton prices are expected to be strong in the medium - and long - term, but there is pressure on the domestic market in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see before the festival [79]. - Sugar prices are expected to be weak in the medium - term [83]. - Apple prices are expected to be strong in the medium - and long - term, and it is recommended to wait and see before the festival and go long in batches after the price pulls back [84]. - For live pigs, it is recommended to wait and see before the festival as the supply may still face pressure after the festival [87]. - For eggs, it is recommended to wait and see before the festival and go short at high prices after the festival [88]. - Corn and corn starch may follow the corn market, and patience is needed to wait for the release of supply pressure after the festival [91]. - The fundamentals of logs are under pressure, and attention should be paid to overseas quotes, holiday progress, and shipping dynamics [95]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, the closing performance of treasury bond futures was divided. The central bank carried out 311.4 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 205.9 billion yuan. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. It is expected that treasury bond futures still have some pressure, and caution is advised [5][6]. Stock Index - On the previous trading day, stock index futures rose and fell differently. The market regulatory authorities approved a batch of important national standards. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. The stock index fluctuation center is expected to gradually move up, and previous long positions can be held [8][9]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, the gold and silver main contracts fell. The "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the value of gold, but the recent sharp rise has led to a significant increase in speculative sentiment. It is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see [11]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed a weak shock. In the medium - term, the price is dominated by the industrial supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is declining year - on - year, and the supply pressure still exists. The price may continue the weak shock pattern, and investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [13][14]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated and sorted out. The demand for iron ore is at a low level, and the port inventory is rising. The supply - demand pattern is weak, and it may continue the shock pattern in the short - term. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [16]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to pull back. The supply of coking coal may decrease in the later period, and the demand for coke is weak. They may continue the shock pattern in the medium - term, and investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low levels [18][19]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, the manganese - silicon and silicon - iron main contracts fell. The supply of ferroalloys is still in a loose state, but the cost support is gradually strengthening. After the price drops, attention can be paid to the long - position opportunities in the low - level range [21]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated upward. The negotiation between the US and Iran is complex, and geopolitical risks still exist. The capital is still bullish on crude oil prices, and the rebound of crude oil is expected to continue. Investors can pay attention to the long - position opportunity of the main crude oil contract [22][24]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated upward. The tight supply of Singapore fuel oil has eased, but the rebound of crude oil at the cost end drives the fuel oil price to rebound, and there is still room for the fuel oil price to rise. Investors can pay attention to the long - position opportunity of the main fuel oil contract [26][27]. Polyolefins - On the previous trading day, the price of polyolefins declined. As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand will decrease significantly, and cautious operation is recommended before the festival [29]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose. It may show a relatively strong shock trend, and attention should be paid to the resumption of logistics and infrastructure construction after the Lantern Festival and the inventory destocking rate of tire enterprises [31]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract rose. It may show a shock trend, and positions should be controlled before the festival [34]. PVC - On the previous trading day, the PVC main contract fell. It may show a relatively strong shock trend, and the key to price and inventory lies in the demand recovery after the Spring Festival [36]. Urea - On the previous trading day, the urea main contract fell. It may show a shock - strong trend, and attention should be paid to Indian tenders, domestic policies, and the recovery rhythm of downstream demand after the festival [39]. PX - On the previous trading day, the PX main contract rose. It may be mainly in shock adjustment in the short - term, and cautious participation is recommended, paying attention to the fluctuation risk of overseas crude oil during the Spring Festival [40][42]. PTA - On the previous trading day, the PTA main contract rose. It may be in shock operation in the short - term, and it is recommended to operate carefully, paying attention to oil price changes [43]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract fell. It may maintain a shock - bottoming pattern in the short - term, and it is recommended to operate carefully, paying attention to port inventory and supply changes [44][45]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, the short - fiber main contract rose. It is still trading based on the cost - end logic before the festival, and it is recommended to wait and see carefully, paying attention to cost changes and downstream pre - holiday stocking [46]. Bottle Chips - On the previous trading day, the bottle - chip main contract rose. It is expected to follow the cost - end operation, and cautious participation is recommended before the festival, paying attention to the implementation of maintenance devices [47][49]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, the soda - ash main contract fell. The fundamentals are still loose, and it should be treated with caution [50]. Glass - On the previous trading day, the glass main contract fell. The fundamentals are still loose, and it is expected to be in shock before the festival, paying attention to the risk of returning to the fundamentals [51]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, the caustic - soda main contract rose. The seasonal characteristics are significant, and although the disk rose yesterday, the fundamentals of the middle and lower reaches have not improved significantly, so it should be treated with caution [53][54]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, the pulp main contract fell. The inventory continues to accumulate, the terminal demand is weak, and it is expected to have limited fluctuations before the festival [55][57]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, the lithium - carbonate main contract rose. The price has short - term support, but the short - term fluctuation may increase, and risk control is necessary [58]. Copper - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract fell. The market sentiment has declined, and the fundamentals have weakened. The copper price may be weakly adjusted before the festival [59][60]. Aluminum - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract was flat, and the alumina main contract fell. The alumina cost support is not strong, and the aluminum price may be under pressure this month [62]. Zinc - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract rose. The zinc market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the zinc price will enter an adjustment period [64]. Lead - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract rose. The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the lead price may show a weak shock trend [65][66]. Tin - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai tin main contract rose. The supply - demand pattern is tight, and the tin price has support below, but short - term fluctuations may intensify, and risk control is necessary [67]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel main contract rose. Nickel is still in an oversupply pattern, and attention should be paid to relevant Indonesian policies [68][69]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, the soybean - meal and soybean - oil main contracts fell. The supply of soybeans is relatively loose, the demand for soybean meal continues to grow moderately, and the demand for soybean oil has improved slightly. For soybean meal, attention can be paid to long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range; for soybean oil, it is advisable to wait and see after the price leaves the low - cost range [70][71]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm - oil market fell. The inventory in Malaysia is still at a high level, and the export has declined. The domestic palm - oil inventory is at a medium - to - high level. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [72][73]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed futures rose. The export volume of Canadian rapeseed is expected to decline, while the export volume of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal is expected to increase. The domestic rapeseed - meal and rapeseed - oil inventories are in different states. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily [74][76]. Cotton - On the previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou cotton oscillated. The USDA February supply - demand report is bearish, but the domestic supply is expected to be tight in the future, and the demand has resilience. The cotton price is expected to be strong in the medium - and long - term, but there is pressure on the domestic market in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see before the festival [77][79]. Sugar - On the previous trading day, Zhengzhou sugar rebounded slightly. The Indian sugar production is expected to increase strongly, and the domestic market is facing the dual supply pressure of domestic new sugar and imported sugar. It is expected to be weak in the medium - term [81][82]. Apple - On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures oscillated. The current inventory is at a low level in recent years, and the new - season apple production and quality have declined. It is expected to be strong in the medium - and long - term. It is recommended to wait and see before the festival and go long in batches after the price pulls back [84]. Live Pigs - On the previous trading day, the live - pig main contract fell. The overall supply exceeds demand, and the consumption boost is limited before the Spring Festival. The supply may still face pressure after the festival. It is recommended to wait and see before the festival [86][87]. Eggs - On the previous trading day, the egg main contract rose. The egg supply in February is expected to remain at a relatively high level. It is recommended to wait and see before the festival and go short at high prices after the festival [88]. Corn and Corn Starch - On the previous trading day, the corn and corn - starch main contracts rose. The supply pressure of corn is still large, but the demand is strong. Corn starch may follow the corn market, and patience is needed to wait for the release of supply pressure after the festival [89][91]. Logs - On the previous trading day, the log main contract fell. The shipping volume has returned to normal, but the downstream demand is weakening. The fundamentals are under pressure, and attention should be paid to overseas quotes, holiday progress, and shipping dynamics [92][95].

日本第51届众议院选举结果2月9日凌晨揭晓。据新华社消息，执政党自民党议席数较选前大幅增加，超 过众议院议席总数的三分之二。分析认为，自民党总裁、日本首相高市早苗赶在其政策危害彻底暴露 前，以一场"闪电式"选举强化了执政基础，但日本经济民生困境仍难解。 高市早苗颇受日本前首相安倍晋三的提携，是"安倍经济学"的忠实信徒，其施政纲领完全抄了安倍晋三 的"作业"。然而，日本国内经济形势变了，国际经济环境也变了，高市早苗能否解决日本经济与金融的 棘手问题？ 日本经济的沉疴痼疾难去 特约撰稿 王应贵 为促进经济增长，安倍晋三再度上任（2012～2020年）后连发三箭。第一箭指财政政策，即扩大财政支 出、刺激国内消费；第二箭指货币政策，确定通胀目标为2%，要求日本银行尽快实施积极的量化宽松 货币政策，通过购买长期债券（以前为买入短期债券）全面管控利率水平；第三箭指公司治理改革（增 长战略与企业结构性改革）。2012年，日本政府总负债与GDP之比高达220.09％。安倍对振兴经济已力 不从心，只能期望通过公司治理改革鼓励私营部门投资、促进经济增长。 然而，当下日本经济形势已完全不同于2012年。目前，日本通货膨胀已达2.1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the steel industry and the non-ferrous metals industry, with "Buy" ratings for specific companies including Luoyang Molybdenum, Zhongjin Gold, Huayou Cobalt, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [8]. Core Insights - The steel market is expected to weaken due to seasonal factors, with a focus on demand recovery after the Spring Festival [19][20]. - Copper prices may rise if demand improves post-holiday, despite current inventory accumulation [40]. - The aluminum sector is influenced by macroeconomic sentiment, with a focus on demand recovery after the Spring Festival [46]. - Gold prices are supported by geopolitical risks, with potential upward pressure from U.S. Federal Reserve policies [52]. - The rare earth market is expected to maintain tight supply conditions, supporting prices for praseodymium and neodymium [66]. Summary by Sections Steel Industry - Steel production is declining as companies prepare for the Spring Festival, with total inventory increasing [19][21]. - As of February 6, the total steel inventory was 13.39 million tons, up 4.36% week-on-week, but down 19.42% year-on-year [28]. - The average price index for steel on February 6 was 3,414.24 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous week [37]. Copper Industry - Copper prices have decreased, but new orders are increasing, indicating seasonal demand characteristics [40]. - As of February 6, LME copper prices were $12,800/ton, down 3.96% from January 30 [43]. Aluminum Industry - Domestic bauxite supply is sufficient, but aluminum processing companies are reducing production due to price volatility and regulatory pressures [46]. - As of February 6, LME aluminum prices were $3,000/ton, down 2.09% from January 30 [47]. Precious Metals - Geopolitical tensions and U.S. economic data are influencing gold prices, which are expected to find support from these factors [52]. - As of February 6, COMEX gold prices were $4,988.60/oz, up 1.65% from January 30 [52]. Rare Earths - The supply of praseodymium and neodymium is expected to remain tight, supporting price stability [66]. - As of February 6, the price of praseodymium oxide was 757,500 yuan/ton, up 1.20% from January 30 [66].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure, and caution is advised [6][7]. - The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. The valuation of domestic assets is low, and the market sentiment has warmed up. The volatility center of stock index futures is expected to gradually move up, and previous long positions can be held [9][10]. - The global trade - financial environment is complex. Gold is favored for its allocation and hedging value, but the recent sharp rise has led to high speculative sentiment. The market volatility of precious metals is expected to increase significantly, and long positions should be liquidated for observation [11][12]. - The supply - demand pattern of steel products is weak. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils may continue to oscillate weakly. Investors can look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks and manage positions carefully [13]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weak, and the futures may continue to oscillate in the short term. Investors can look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks and manage positions carefully [15]. - The coke and coking coal futures may continue to oscillate in the medium term. Investors can look for low - level buying opportunities and manage positions carefully [17]. - The ferro - alloy market has an overall surplus, but the cost has a certain bottom - support. After a decline, investors can consider long positions in the low - level range [19]. - The negotiation between the US and Iran is complex, and geopolitical risks remain. The capital is still bullish on crude oil, and the rebound of crude oil is expected to continue. Investors can focus on long - position opportunities in the main crude oil contract [20][21][22]. - The supply of fuel oil in Singapore is tightening, and the cost - end crude oil is rebounding, so the fuel oil price has room to rise. Investors can focus on long - position opportunities in the main fuel oil contract [23][24]. - As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand for polyolefins will shrink significantly, and pre - festival cautious operation is recommended [25][26]. - The synthetic rubber market may oscillate strongly. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of logistics and infrastructure after the Lantern Festival and the inventory reduction rate of tire enterprises [27][28][29]. - The natural rubber market is in an oscillating trend. Due to the approaching Spring Festival, positions should be controlled [30][31]. - The PVC market may oscillate strongly. The key to price trends and inventory reduction lies in the post - Spring Festival demand recovery [32][33][34]. - The urea market may oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to Indian tenders, domestic policies, and post - festival demand recovery [35]. - The PX market may oscillate and adjust in the short term. Cautious participation is recommended, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and fundamentals [36][37]. - The PTA market may oscillate in the short term. It is expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory in January and February. Cautious operation is recommended, and attention should be paid to oil price changes [38]. - The ethylene glycol market may maintain an oscillating bottom - building pattern in the short term. Cautious operation is recommended, and attention should be paid to port inventory and supply changes [39][40]. - The short - fiber market mainly trades based on the cost - end logic before the Spring Festival. Cautious observation is recommended, and attention should be paid to cost changes and downstream pre - festival stocking [41]. - The bottle - chip market is expected to follow the cost - end trend. Cautious participation is recommended before the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to the implementation of maintenance devices [42][43]. - The soda ash market is in a slack season, and cautious treatment is still required [44]. - The glass market is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the risk of returning to the fundamentals [45][46][47]. - The caustic soda market has significant seasonal characteristics. Although the cost is expected to rise, the fundamentals of the middle and lower reaches have not improved significantly, so cautious treatment is required [49][50]. - The pulp market is expected to have limited fluctuations before the Spring Festival due to weak support [51]. - The lithium carbonate market has strong support at the bottom, but short - term fluctuations may increase, and risk control should be noted [52][53]. - The copper price may be weakly adjusted before the Spring Festival due to weakening market sentiment and fundamentals [54][55]. - The aluminum price may be under pressure as speculative funds leave the market [56][57][58]. - The zinc price will enter an adjustment period as market sentiment cools and zinc ingot inventory accumulates [59][60]. - The lead market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price may oscillate weakly [61][62]. - The tin price has support at the bottom, but short - term fluctuations may intensify due to the uncertainty of US policies, and risk control should be noted [63][64]. - The nickel market is in an oversupply pattern, and attention should be paid to relevant Indonesian policies [65]. - For soybean meal, long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range can be considered; for soybean oil, observation is advisable after the price leaves the low - cost range [66][67]. - For palm oil, long - position opportunities after pullbacks can be considered [68][69]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, temporary observation is recommended [70][71][72]. - The cotton price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term, but there is pressure on the domestic market in the short term. Pre - festival observation is recommended [73][74][75]. - The sugar market is expected to be weak in the medium term [76][77][78]. - The apple price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term. Pre - festival observation is recommended, and long - position operations can be considered in batches after pullbacks [79][80]. - For live pigs, pre - festival observation is recommended due to the large supply pressure after the Spring Festival [80][81]. - For eggs, pre - festival temporary observation is recommended due to the high supply and the end of pre - festival stocking [82][83]. - The corn and corn starch market: Corn is expected to face supply pressure after the Spring Festival, and corn starch may follow the corn market. Cautious observation is recommended [84][85][86]. - The log market has weak future demand expectations, and attention should be paid to foreign quotes, holiday progress, and shipping dynamics [87][88][89]. Summary by Directory Pulp - The previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 5,200 yuan/ton, down 0.99%. The port inventory continued to accumulate, the terminal demand stagnated, and the market lacked trading basis. The price is expected to have limited fluctuations before the Spring Festival [51]. Carbonate Lithium - The previous trading day, the main carbonate lithium contract rose 3.55% to 137,000 yuan/ton. The supply is in a tight balance, the consumption end is improving, and the social inventory is gradually decreasing. The price has strong support at the bottom, but short - term fluctuations may increase [52][53]. Copper - The previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 102,450 yuan/ton, up 0.93%. Due to weakening market sentiment and fundamentals, the copper price may be weakly adjusted before the Spring Festival [54][55]. Aluminum - The previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,625 yuan/ton, up 0.17%; the alumina main contract closed at 2,862 yuan/ton, down 0.46%. The alumina is bearish, and the aluminum price may be under pressure as speculative funds leave the market [56][57][58]. Zinc - The previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 24,490 yuan/ton, down 0.39%. The zinc market has a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price will enter an adjustment period [59][60]. Lead - The previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16,665 yuan/ton, up 0.6%. The lead market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price may oscillate weakly [61][62]. Tin - The previous trading day, the Shanghai tin main contract rose 4.18% to 385,140 yuan/ton. The supply - demand is tight, the price has support at the bottom, but short - term fluctuations may intensify due to the uncertainty of US policies [63][64]. Nickel - The previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel main contract rose 0.91% to 134,820 yuan/ton. The nickel market is in an oversupply pattern, and attention should be paid to relevant Indonesian policies [65]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract fell 0.33% to 2,729 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract rose 0.07% to 8,114 yuan/ton. For soybean meal, long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range can be considered; for soybean oil, observation is advisable after the price leaves the low - cost range [66][67]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil rose. The market expects the inventory to decline in January. For palm oil, long - position opportunities after pullbacks can be considered [68][69]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed rose. For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, temporary observation is recommended [70][71][72]. Cotton - The previous trading day, the domestic Zhengzhou cotton oscillated. The cotton price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term, but there is pressure on the domestic market in the short term. Pre - festival observation is recommended [73][74][75]. Sugar - The previous trading day, the Zhengzhou sugar rebounded slightly. The sugar market is expected to be weak in the medium term [76][77][78]. Apple - The previous trading day, the domestic apple futures oscillated. The apple price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term. Pre - festival observation is recommended, and long - position operations can be considered in batches after pullbacks [79][80]. Live Pigs - The previous trading day, the main live - pig contract fell 0.69% to 11,565 yuan/ton. Pre - festival observation is recommended due to the large supply pressure after the Spring Festival [80][81]. Eggs - The previous trading day, the main egg contract rose 0.03% to 2,909 yuan/500 kg. Pre - festival temporary observation is recommended due to the high supply and the end of pre - festival stocking [82][83]. Corn and Starch - The previous trading day, the corn main contract fell 0.18% to 2,265 yuan/ton; the corn starch main contract rose 0.28% to 2,538 yuan/ton. Corn is expected to face supply pressure after the Spring Festival, and corn starch may follow the corn market. Cautious observation is recommended [84][85][86]. Logs - The previous trading day, the main 2603 contract closed at 775.0 yuan/ton, down 1.90%. The log market has weak future demand expectations, and attention should be paid to foreign quotes, holiday progress, and shipping dynamics [87][88][89].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - The labor market's downward pressure is increasing, and the US dollar is expected to weaken in the short term [2][16] - The US stock market is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations, and the bond market has upward momentum but also faces adjustment pressure [20][22] - Most commodities show different trends, with some in a weak or strong oscillation state, and the prices of some are affected by supply and demand, policies, and geopolitical factors [25][34][53] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Gold prices oscillated and closed higher, benefiting from the sharp decline of the US dollar index and the existence of certain risk - aversion sentiment. The market's expectation of a March interest - rate cut is about 20%. It is expected that the overall trend of precious metals will be oscillatory before the Spring Festival. It is recommended to reduce positions [12][13] 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Hasset stated that employment data will decline, and the downward pressure on the labor market is increasing. The US dollar is expected to weaken in the short term [14][16][17] 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Google plans to raise about $20 billion through issuing US dollar bonds. The short - term situation of the US stock market is a mix of long and short factors, and it is expected to maintain high - level oscillations [19][20] 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 113 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 38 billion yuan on the day. The bond market has upward momentum, but the probability of an interest - rate cut in the short term is low. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the upward momentum weakens [21][22][23] 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Steel prices continue the weak oscillation pattern. Before the Spring Festival, the fundamental pressure increases, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to treat steel prices with an oscillatory mindset and pay attention to risks with a light position before the festival [25][26] 2.2 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal at Beigang is relatively stable. The Indonesian policy has some impact, but the coal price is seasonally strong, with the policy mainly strengthening the bottom and the upward elasticity being limited [27][28][29] 2.3 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Iron ore prices are still weak and oscillatory. The iron - making process is moderately resuming production, and it is necessary to wait for the order situation in March after the Spring Festival [30] 2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The palm oil inventory has increased. Before the release of the MPOB report, the market is in a wait - and - see state. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of MPOB data and control positions to avoid risks [31] 2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Private exporters sold 264,000 tons of soybeans to China. The CBOT soybeans are oscillating strongly, but the soybean meal inventory in oil mills has reached a record high for the same period. It is expected that the futures price will maintain an oscillation, and the soybean meal will be weaker than the external market [32][33][34] 2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are improving in reality, but the futures market is greatly affected by macro - sentiment and capital flow. After the Spring Festival, it is expected that the supply and demand will both increase, and the price center may rise significantly. It is recommended to take a bullish approach and pay attention to buying opportunities at low prices [37][38][39] 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The macro - negative sentiment is gradually digested by the market, but the short - term fundamentals limit the price increase. It is expected that the price will oscillate widely in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [42][43] 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The lead market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The price is oscillating, and the decline space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to mid - term long - position opportunities [44][45] 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The zinc market is oscillating. The zinc ore production expectation may change. Before the Spring Festival, the operation difficulty is high. It is recommended to use call options instead for unilateral operations and wait and see for arbitrage [47][48] 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The semiconductor industry's revenue is expected to reach $1 trillion in 2026. The supply of tin is expected to ease, but there are still uncertainties. The demand is weak. It is expected that the price will oscillate widely [49][51][52] 2.11 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Venezuela's oil production has rebounded. The oil price is oscillating upward, and the risk premium is expected to support the oil price. It is necessary to pay attention to the follow - up negotiations between the US and Iran [53][54] 2.12 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas - LPG) - Due to the geopolitical situation in Iran, the LPG price is expected to oscillate strongly [55][56] 2.13 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The asphalt inventory has increased, and the market trading atmosphere is weak. The demand has basically stagnated. It is necessary to pay attention to the changes in the geopolitical situation [56][57] 2.14 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The supply of urea is relatively abundant, and the demand fluctuation is not obvious. Before and after the Spring Festival, the urea price may oscillate and adjust. It is not recommended to continue to allocate more at the current price [59][60] 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The pure benzene inventory in East China ports has increased. The styrene market is entering the supply elasticity test stage. The current bullish trading of the styrene futures has temporarily ended. It is recommended to reduce the risk exposure before the festival [61][62] 2.16 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Affected by the Spring Festival and geopolitical factors, the container freight rate is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [63][64]

不得不承认，黄金、有色金属、石化等构筑的大宗商品叙事，短期内已然挣脱惯常的分析框架。 急涨、急跌、再反弹，市场的呼吸变得急促而失序。历史新高与数十年新低，在短短几个交易日轮番上演；涨 停与跌停、贪婪与恐惧，在情绪的剧烈摇摆中反复交替；疯狂抢筹与踩踏出逃，亦在预期的突然反转间迅速切 换。 黄金这个在2025年53次刷新历史纪录的贵金属品类，在最近短短一周内，走完了一段过山车般的史诗级轨迹。 1月29日，伦敦金价强势触及每盎司5598美元的历史极值，随后迎来急速调整，并在1月31日以一次近四十年未 见的单日暴跌急速冷却；正当市场惊魂未定时，2月4日，它又以一场近207个月以来的最大单日涨幅，再度改 写了剧本。 市场的解释我们已不陌生，"沃什交易"的冲击、获利回吐的压力，让黄金处于震荡行情。1月30日，以激进缩 表主张闻名的前美联储理事凯文·沃什为主席候选人，这一信号瞬间动摇了黄金的货币宽松逻辑。 在此基础上，交易所上调保证金的要求， 成为了压垮骆驼的最后一根稻草 。高杠杆资金在强制平仓的压力下 被迫集体离场，前期积累的巨大获利盘如雪崩般涌出，市场的极致波动由此诞生。 但若跳出眼下的喧嚣与波动，便会发现，这或许并非 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing fluctuations with a recent upward trend, supported by geopolitical tensions and ongoing de-dollarization efforts, while the U.S. economic indicators present mixed signals [1][2][3][4][5] Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - As of February 6, London spot gold closed at $4,966.61 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of $86.58 per ounce since January 30, marking a rise of 1.77% [1] - The highest gold price reached $5,091.95 per ounce, while the lowest was $4,402.06 per ounce during the week [1] - The Chinese central bank has increased its gold reserves for the fifteenth consecutive month, which adds confidence to the precious metals market [1][3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. manufacturing PMI for January was reported at 52.6, indicating expansion and surpassing expectations [2] - The U.S. labor market showed signs of deterioration, with ADP employment numbers at 22,000, below previous and expected figures [2] - The U.S. non-farm payroll report is delayed until February 11, and the CPI report until February 13, due to the government shutdown [2] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Geopolitical Factors - Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson indicated that the current interest rate stance is appropriate for the economy, with expectations of inflation trends improving later in the year [3] - The U.S. government shutdown has ended, and trade agreements have been reached with India and Argentina [3] Group 4: Long-term Outlook for Gold - The long-term trend for gold remains strong, driven by monetary expansion and fiscal deficits, challenging the dollar's credit system [5] - The ongoing global de-dollarization trend is expected to enhance gold's role as a pricing anchor, providing upward momentum for precious metals [5] - The combination of the Fed's rate-cutting cycle, increasing geopolitical uncertainties, and global de-dollarization trends supports gold prices in the medium to long term [5]

有投资者3年前卖房买入百万黄金。 近日，黄金市场的剧烈波动，持续牵动着每一位投资者的神经。伦敦金现在1月底触及阶段性高点后出 现大幅回调，随后转入持续震荡。 在这轮罕见的大起大落中，市场参与者的行动也呈现出显著的分化：一边是部分机构与个人果断高位套 现，另一边是仍有大量投资者紧握黄金资产坚定看涨。 当波动渐成常态，投资者的心态正经历怎样的变化？面对日益复杂且情绪化的黄金市场，他们如何形成 认知、作出决策，并承担随之而来的结果？第一财经记者深度对话了多位投入重金的投资者，记录下他 们的真实轨迹与心路历程。 套现、坚守、深陷 2023年下半年到2024年初，阿诚大量阅读了海内外关于逆全球化、美元信用和黄金的观点。一种认知逐 渐清晰：黄金在当前这个大周期和新秩序下或许有特殊作用。 基于这样的逻辑，2024年5月，当金价站上550元时，他开始大仓位买入黄金。此后的几个月里，他持续 买入，最终将大部分仓位的成本锁定在550到570元之间。 2025年1月，阿诚开设了名为"阿诚要悄悄变富"的社交媒体账号，分享自己的投资思考，目前粉丝已超5 万。公开记录也伴随着新的操作。当年1至2月，金价已升至650到700元区间，他再次 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Treasury Bonds**: Current macro - data is stable, but the recovery momentum of the macro - economy needs strengthening. It is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. Treasury bond yields are at a relatively low level. The Chinese economy shows a steady recovery, core inflation continues to rise, and there is room for domestic demand policies. The market risk preference has significantly increased. Treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure, and caution is advised [5]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum of the macro - economy is weak, and corporate profit growth is at a low level. However, domestic asset valuations are at a low level, and there is room for valuation repair. The Chinese economy has sufficient resilience. Recently, market sentiment has warmed up significantly, and incremental funds have continued to enter the market. It is expected that the volatility center of the stock index will gradually move up, and previous long positions can be held. With the Spring Festival approaching, risk control should be emphasized, and positions can be appropriately reduced [8]. - **Precious Metals**: The current global trade and financial environment is complex. The trends of "anti - globalization" and "de - dollarization" are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. Central bank gold - buying behavior also supports the gold price. However, precious metals have risen significantly recently, and speculative sentiment has increased significantly. It is expected that market volatility will increase significantly, and long positions can be liquidated for observation [10]. - **Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: In the medium term, the price of finished steel products is dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. On the demand side, the downward trend of the real estate industry has not reversed, and rebar demand is still declining year - on - year. In the medium term, the market has entered the off - season of demand, and the progress of winter storage needs to be monitored. On the supply side, the over - capacity situation remains unchanged, rebar weekly output has increased, and supply pressure has increased. Currently, rebar inventory is higher than the same period last year, and the inventory accumulation process around the Spring Festival has begun. Overall, rebar prices may continue to fluctuate weakly. The fundamentals of hot - rolled coils are not significantly different from those of rebar, and their trends may be consistent. Technically, steel futures may continue the weak - oscillation pattern in the short term. Investors can look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks and pay attention to position management [13]. - **Iron Ore**: From an industrial perspective, the daily output of molten iron in the country remains below 2.3 million tons, and iron ore demand is at a low level. On the supply side, in 2025, iron ore imports increased by 1.8% year - on - year, and domestic raw ore production was lower than the same period in 2024. Iron ore port inventory has continued to rise, and the current inventory is at the highest level in the same period in the past five years. Overall, the supply - demand pattern of the iron ore market is weak. Technically, iron ore futures may continue the oscillation pattern in the short term. Investors can look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks and pay attention to position management [15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: For coking coal, current major coal - producing areas maintain normal production rhythms, and domestic coking coal production is stable. However, considering the approaching Spring Festival, future supply will decline, and coal mine shipment pressure is small. On the demand side, downstream coking enterprises purchase on demand, and intermediate - link purchasing attitudes have become more cautious. For coke, the first - round increase in the spot purchase price has been officially implemented. Coke supply remains stable; the daily output of molten iron in the country remains below 2.3 million tons, and coke demand is weak, putting pressure on coke prices. Technically, coking coal and coke futures may continue the oscillation pattern in the medium term. Investors can look for opportunities to buy at low levels and pay attention to position management [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: Since 2026, ferroalloy production has remained at a low level, demand is weak, and the overall over - supply pressure continues. Currently, the downward space for costs at a low level is limited, and the support at the low - level range is gradually strengthening, and manganese ore inventory is at a low level. In the short term, supply may continue to shrink. Under the conditions of low and rigid costs, investors can consider long positions in the low - level range after a pullback [20]. - **Crude Oil**: The negotiation between the US and Iran has encountered difficulties, and geopolitical contradictions are beneficial to crude oil prices. CFTC data shows that funds are still bullish on crude oil prices. The crude oil rebound is expected to continue [23]. - **Fuel Oil**: The supply of fuel oil in Singapore is tightening, which is beneficial to fuel oil prices. The rebound of crude oil at the cost end drives the rebound of fuel oil prices. There is still room for fuel oil to rise [26]. - **Polyolefins**: In the short term, as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream factories are gradually entering the holiday stage, and market demand will be significantly reduced. On the supply side, some suppliers who have not yet taken holidays still maintain active shipment operations [28]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is expected to show a relatively strong oscillation [31]. - **Natural Rubber**: It is expected to show an oscillation trend. Due to macro black - swan events this week, gold and silver have plummeted, and the sentiment has spread to the rubber sector, causing prices to follow the overall correction of commodities. It is mainly necessary to control positions before the festival [32]. - **PVC**: The key to price trends and inventory reduction speed lies in the recovery of demand after the Spring Festival. If the downstream resumes work quickly and the demand for infrastructure and other projects can be effectively activated, the inventory pressure is expected to be gradually relieved. On the supply side, the PVC industry operating rate remains at a high level. On the demand side, affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the operating rates of downstream pipe and profile enterprises have significantly declined, and the willingness to stock up has weakened. At the cost - profit end, external - purchased calcium - carbide - method enterprises are still in deep losses, and the profits of chlor - alkali integration are also not good, and the cost end supports the price. It is expected to show a relatively strong oscillation [34]. - **Urea**: It is expected to show an oscillation - and - upward trend. It is necessary to pay attention to the dynamics of Indian tenders, domestic policy news, and the recovery rhythm of downstream demand after the festival [36]. - **PX**: In the short term, the PXN spread and short - process profit are slightly compressed, the PX operating rate has slightly increased, and the cost - end crude oil is adjusted. In the short term, PX may mainly oscillate and adjust. It is necessary to participate cautiously, be vigilant against the risk of external - market crude oil fluctuations, and pay attention to macro - policies and fundamental changes [37]. - **PTA**: In the short term, the PTA processing fee has risen to the average level of previous years, and the room for further upward movement may be limited. PTA inventory remains at a low level. Recently, there have been few changes on the supply side, the demand side has entered the holiday mode for the Spring Festival, and the cost - end support is limited. In the short term, PTA may oscillate. It is expected to slightly accumulate inventory from January to February. Considering the uncertainty of crude oil changes, it is mainly necessary to operate cautiously, pay attention to risk control, and pay attention to oil - price changes [39]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The content is the same as that of PTA, with the same analysis and suggestions [40]. - **Short - Fiber**: As the Spring Festival approaches, short - fiber supply shrinks, terminal - factory stocking decreases, and loom load drops to a low point. However, the low inventory of short - fiber may provide bottom support. In the short term, short - fiber still trades based on the cost - end logic. The cost support weakens, and it may follow the raw - material price. It is mainly necessary to observe cautiously, pay attention to risk control, and pay attention to cost changes and downstream pre - festival stocking [42]. - **Bottle - Chip**: Recently, the bottle - chip load has slightly decreased, and there will be concentrated production cuts around the Spring Festival. Supply is expected to shrink. The export growth rate has increased, but its main logic still lies in the cost end. It is expected that bottle - chips will mainly follow the cost - end operation in the future. It is necessary to participate cautiously before the festival, pay attention to risk control, and pay attention to the implementation of maintenance devices [43]. - **Soda Ash**: The fundamentals continue to be loose. The output has decreased slightly, and inventory has slightly accumulated. Downstream glass manufacturers still mainly purchase on demand at low prices. The device operation is stable, and supply remains at a high level. The fundamentals show off - season characteristics, are occasionally affected by the intraday sentiment of the energy sector, lack substantial support, and should still be treated with caution [44]. - **Glass**: The fundamentals remain in a loose pattern. The number of production lines in operation has decreased, factory - and trader - inventories have increased. The market is mainly in a loose tone. The inventory of manufacturers is concentrated and transferred to trader inventory, and it is expected that there will still be pressure for the release of market goods after the festival. In the short term, it is driven by the energy sector, showing a slight oscillation - and - upward trend, but the sustainability is general. It is necessary to pay attention to the risk of returning to the fundamentals. It is expected to oscillate before the festival [46]. - **Caustic Soda**: Supply remains at a high level. Inventory has decreased slightly due to the shipment of delivery warrants, but the absolute value is still at a high level in the same period of history. Before the festival, downstream purchases on demand, and the willingness to accept high - price caustic soda is small. The 02 contract is about to end trading, and the other contracts return to the fundamental logic. It has significant seasonal characteristics - high output, low demand, and high inventory. Recently, the energy sector has oscillated a lot, the cost expectation has increased, and the disk game has intensified. However, considering that the fundamentals of the middle and lower reaches have not significantly improved, it should be treated with caution [48]. - **Pulp**: Inventory continues to accumulate. Domestic supply has also slightly increased. Downstream performance is divided. Before the Spring Festival, the consumption of household paper is slightly better, while other cultural and packaging paper categories are sluggish. The overall market operation is inactive, and the enthusiasm of industry players to enter the market is general. The continuous accumulation of port inventory intensifies the expectation of supply relaxation; the terminal demand is temporarily stagnant, and the market lacks a trading basis; the demand for capital repatriation before the festival causes some holders to sell at a discount. The overall support is weak, and it is expected that the pre - festival disk will have limited fluctuations [50]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price has fallen back, and the fundamentals show that the resumption time of mines in Jiangxi, China, is still uncertain, and the mine end may be in a tight - balance state. From the perspective of lithium - salt supply, the weekly output of lithium carbonate continues to decline. On the consumption side, as the holiday approaches, downstream stocking is almost over. The energy - storage sector performs prominently, the production schedules of leading energy - storage battery enterprises remain high, and the demand for power batteries has also improved. The social inventory of lithium carbonate is gradually being reduced, and the current inventory has left the absolute high level. The short - term supply - demand mismatch provides short - term support for the price. Coupled with the frequent external geopolitical conflicts, the importance of strategic minerals is highlighted, and the market is constantly worried about the external stable supply and liquidity of lithium resources. The support for lithium carbonate is still strong, but the short - term volatility may increase, and risk control should be noted [52]. - **Copper**: Macroscopically, the nomination of the Fed chairman has led to the strengthening of the US dollar and the re - evaluation of global capital; the risk preference in the capital market has cooled, weakening the enthusiasm for commodity allocation; the US ADP data is lower than expected, and the number of initial jobless claims in the week is higher than expected and the previous value. Attention should be paid to the non - farm data. Fundamentally, as the Spring Festival approaches, terminal and processing enterprises have mostly completed pre - festival stocking, and the spot - market trading has become dull. The smelting end has few maintenance plans, and with the supplement of scrap for production, the output of electrolytic copper remains at a high level. The domestic social inventory of electrolytic copper is in the seasonal inventory - accumulation stage, and the global visible inventory of electrolytic copper continues to rise, but the actual available quantity is relatively limited. Market sentiment has declined, and coupled with the weakening of fundamentals, copper prices may be weakly adjusted before the festival [53]. - **Aluminum**: The cost support of alumina is not strong, the operating capacity has decreased month - on - month, but the supply - demand surplus pattern has not changed. The output of domestic electrolytic aluminum has changed little, and production enterprises are gradually shutting down for the Spring Festival. The inventory - accumulation amplitude of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods has increased. Although the global visible inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased, the absolute value is still low. Alumina is still regarded as bearish. If the output decline is significant in the near future, the price may be temporarily strong. This month, the fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum are bearish, so as speculative funds leave the market, aluminum prices may be under pressure [56]. - **Zinc**: The zinc market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The supply (domestic zinc + imported zinc) has tightened month - on - month, and the demand - side operating rate will also reach the annual low. The traditional seasonal inventory - accumulation period is late, indicating that there is a certain resilience on the demand side. As market sentiment cools and zinc - ingot inventory accumulates, zinc prices will enter an adjustment period [58]. - **Lead**: Although the supply side is structurally tightened, most primary - lead enterprises and some secondary - lead enterprises will maintain production during the Spring Festival, and it is expected that the supply will be loose after the festival. The demand side shows a dull performance. Even if the lead price drops, the spot - market trading remains weak. The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the social inventory of primary lead steadily accumulates. Secondary lead still has cost support, but under the influence of the supply - demand structural contradiction, the support may gradually weaken [60]. - **Tin**: The military conflict in the DRC continues, and there are still concerns about the stable production of the mine end. However, the recent repair of the weak US dollar has led to a decline in asset - equity prices. Fundamentally, the explosive approval in Wa State has been completed, and it is expected that the subsequent output will increase. Currently, the domestic processing fee has recovered, and the refined - tin output has stabilized. In terms of imports, the refined - tin imports from Indonesia have resumed, and the tight supply pattern has been alleviated. On the demand side, the tin downstream consumption market presents a complex picture of "pressure in traditional fields and support from emerging fields". Although the overall demand has not shown a strong rebound, it still shows a certain resilience under the structural support of artificial intelligence and new - energy fields. Under the tight supply - demand situation, the visible inventory of refined tin is further reduced, and there is support for the tin price. However, the uncertainty of US policies is relatively large, which affects trading sentiment, and the short - term volatility may increase. Risk control should be noted [62]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia's nickel - ore quota plan for 2026 has been adjusted down to 2.6 billion tons, still lower than last year's quota. The nickel production - cost center is expected to rise, and the policy risk in Indonesia has increased. Fundamentally, the nickel - ore price has stabilized. Indonesia is cracking down on illegal mines, and coupled with the rainy season in the Philippines, subsequent nickel - ore production and mining activities may be affected, and there is support for the ore price. In addition, the pressure from stainless steel is transmitted upwards, the losses of downstream nickel - iron plants have increased, and some high - cost nickel - iron plants in Indonesia have shut down for maintenance. Stainless steel has entered the traditional consumption off - season, and is still restricted by the weak terminal real - estate consumption. Coupled with the still - sluggish nickel - iron trading, steel mills have a strong psychology of pressing prices, and the real - world consumption is still hard to be optimistic about. There is relatively large upward pressure. The spot trading of refined nickel has weakened, and the domestic inventory is generally stable but still at a relatively high level. Overall, primary nickel is still in an over - supply pattern. Attention should be paid to relevant Indonesian policies in the future [63]. - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The Malaysian palm oil has recorded a weekly decline for the first time in five weeks, affected by the weak prices of edible oils in the competing Chicago and Dalian markets. The market expects that the palm - oil inventory in Malaysia at the end of January will decline. Domestically, China's palm - oil imports in December decreased. Palm - oil inventory is in the middle level of the same period in the past seven years. The catering industry shows certain growth. It may be possible to consider long positions after a pullback [65]. - **Palm Oil**: Canadian rapeseed has stopped rising for three days. Canada's rapeseed inventory has increased year - on - year. The US has issued relevant guidance on clean - fuel production tax credits. China has agreed to reduce the comprehensive tariff on Canadian rapeseed. China's rapeseed, rapeseed - oil, and rapeseed - meal imports have shown certain changes. China's rapeseed - meal and rapeseed - oil inventories are in a relatively high or middle level of the same period in the past seven years. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [67]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The price of soybean meal has risen slightly, and the price of soybean oil has fallen. The overnight US soybean has risen slightly. The soybean - crushing volume of major oil mills has increased. The inventory of soybean meal has increased slightly

Core Insights - The gold market has experienced significant volatility, with London gold prices reaching a peak of $5,598 per ounce at the end of January before a sharp decline, dropping to around $4,402 and fluctuating below $5,000 [3][4] - Investor behavior has diverged, with some cashing out at high prices while others remain bullish on gold, reflecting a complex and emotional market environment [2][3] Market Dynamics - Gold prices have seen a cumulative increase of nearly 50% since August 2025, with recent fluctuations characterized by sharp declines of 9.25% and 4.52% [3][4] - Different investment strategies have led to varied outcomes, with long-term holders generally profiting while short-term traders face losses [6][7] Investor Profiles - A investor named A Cheng has adjusted his portfolio by reducing holdings in gold ETFs while maintaining some physical gold, having entered the market with a cost basis of around 550 to 570 yuan per gram [4][6] - Another investor, Li Yun, has been strategically buying gold for asset protection since 2020, achieving a market value of nearly 1 million yuan from an initial investment of 400,000 yuan [6][9] - Conversely, Qian Qian's experience highlights the risks of leveraged trading, where initial profits were lost due to market misjudgments, leading to significant financial losses [5][7] Future Outlook - A Cheng maintains a positive long-term outlook on gold, suggesting it can provide a 6% to 8% return, although he notes that the appeal of new opportunities has diminished [9][11] - Li Yun believes there is still room for gold price increases but is cautious about adding to his position at current high levels [9][10] - Analysts predict short-term volatility and potential adjustments in gold prices, while the long-term bullish sentiment remains intact due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and shifts in global monetary policy [10][11]