Economic Performance - In April, China's industrial added value above designated size grew by 6.1% year-on-year, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing increasing by 9.8% and 10.0% respectively [1][3] - From January to April, infrastructure investment rose by 5.8% and manufacturing investment increased by 8.8%, indicating a stable growth trajectory [1][3] Trade and Export - Despite external pressures, China's foreign trade maintained steady growth, with total goods import and export value increasing by 2.4% year-on-year from January to April [3][5] - Exports of electromechanical products grew by 9.5% in the first four months, showcasing resilience in the face of trade tensions [5] Employment Situation - The urban unemployment rate in April was 5.1%, a slight decrease from the previous month, indicating overall stability in the job market [4] - However, structural employment issues persist, particularly among the youth, highlighting a mismatch in labor supply and demand [4] Consumer Market - Social retail sales increased by 5.1% year-on-year in April, supported by consumption policies, although the growth rate showed signs of slowing compared to previous months [7] - The sales of home appliances and related goods saw significant increases, with some categories growing by over 30% [7] Price Stability - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in April showed a slight year-on-year decline of 0.1%, influenced by falling international oil prices, while core CPI remained stable [8] - Producer Price Index (PPI) experienced a year-on-year decline of 2.7%, indicating pressures on production costs [8] Macroeconomic Policies - The effectiveness of macroeconomic policies has been crucial in stabilizing the economy, with a series of measures aimed at boosting demand and supporting production [9][10] - The government has implemented policies to assist enterprises affected by tariffs, promoting diversification in foreign trade markets [10]

Economic Overview - In April, China's economy demonstrated resilience and continued to grow despite external shocks and internal challenges, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics [1] - Key production and demand indicators maintained stable and rapid growth, indicating a positive trend in economic performance [2] Industrial Performance - The industrial added value for April increased by 6.1% year-on-year, although the growth rate decreased by 1.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [3] - High-tech industries such as information services, computer and office equipment manufacturing, and aerospace manufacturing showed significant investment growth, with increases of 40.6%, 28.9%, and 23.9% respectively [2] Private Sector Contribution - The private economy exhibited unique resilience and vitality, contributing significantly to the overall economic improvement in April [4] - Private enterprises' industrial added value grew by 6.7%, while private investment increased by 0.2% year-on-year [4] New Energy Vehicles - The production of new energy vehicles in April rose by 38.9% year-on-year, supported by government policies promoting vehicle trade-in programs [6] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 51.7%, reflecting a growing acceptance among consumers [6][7] Consumer Market Trends - The consumer market showed signs of recovery, with online retail sales reaching 47,419 billion yuan, a 7.7% increase year-on-year [8] - Sales of upgraded consumer goods, such as home appliances and furniture, experienced significant growth, indicating strong demand for consumer upgrades [8] Real Estate Market - In April, 22 out of 70 major cities saw new home prices increase month-on-month, with Shanghai and Dalian leading the growth at 0.5% [9] - Notably, the year-on-year price increase in Shanghai, Taiyuan, and Hangzhou suggests a potential rebound in certain real estate markets [10]

Economic Performance - In April, China's industrial added value increased by 6.1% year-on-year, and retail sales of consumer goods rose by 5.1% year-on-year, indicating stable economic performance despite external pressures [1][3] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 4.0% year-on-year from January to April, showing a slight decline of 0.2 percentage points compared to the first quarter, but remaining at a relatively high level [3][4] Employment and Prices - The urban unemployment rate in April was 5.1%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, marking two consecutive months of decline [4] - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.5% year-on-year in April, maintaining the same growth rate as in March [4] Policy Support - The stability in China's economy is attributed to effective counter-cyclical policies, including an increase in the fiscal deficit ratio and the issuance of special bonds to stimulate consumption and investment [5][6] - Retail sales in categories related to the consumption upgrade policy contributed 1.4 percentage points to the overall growth of retail sales in April [5] Industrial and Trade Resilience - China's industrial base is robust, with the manufacturing sector maintaining its position as the world's largest for 15 consecutive years, which supports economic stability amid external shocks [6][7] - From January to April, exports of electromechanical products increased by 9.5% year-on-year, reflecting the competitiveness of China's upgraded industrial products in international markets [7] Future Outlook - Experts suggest that while the economy shows resilience, the foundation for recovery needs to be solidified due to ongoing uncertainties in the international environment [8][9] - There is a consensus on the need for stronger government macroeconomic policies to stimulate domestic demand and investment, which are crucial for sustaining economic growth [9][10]

规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.1% 消费同比增长5.1% 投资持续扩大 透视四月宏观经济数据：顶住压力稳定增长 ◎记者陈芳 面对外部冲击影响加大、内部困难挑战叠加的复杂局面，我国经济顶住压力稳定增长，展现较强韧性。 国家统计局5月19日发布数据显示，4月，规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.1%，内需稳步扩大，全国城 镇调查失业率连续2个月下降，新质生产力加快培育。 专家分析称，随着近期出台的稳经济稳就业系列措施和一揽子金融政策逐步显效，下一阶段经济有望保 持稳中有进态势。 国内需求稳步扩大 今年以来，"两重""两新"政策力度加大，内需支撑力较强。据国家统计局数据，4月，社会消费品零售 总额37174亿元，同比增长5.1%；环比增长0.24%。此外，1至4月，社会消费品零售总额161845亿元， 同比增长4.7%，比一季度加快0.1个百分点；固定资产投资同比增长4%，较一季度略有放缓，但快于去 年全年增速。 消费新动能增势较好，网上零售、即时零售等新业态增速快于整体。1至4月，实物商品网上零售额同比 增长5.8%，快于整体消费增速；旅游出行相关服务消费增长较快，交通出行、通讯信息、旅游咨询租 赁服务类零售额均保持两 ...

Economic Outlook - Despite the phase reduction of tariffs between China and the U.S., domestic policy execution is expected to accelerate rather than slow down[1] - April economic data indicates strong resilience in industrial production, consumption, and investment, suggesting Q2 economic growth may stabilize near annual targets[1] Real Estate Market - In April, the sales area of residential properties in 30 cities saw a year-on-year decline of 12.1% and a month-on-month decline of 24.0%[1] - The total sales area for the first four months decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, with sales revenue down by 1.9%[1] Policy Implications - Current policies are likely to be executed more aggressively to prepare for potential adverse conditions in the next 90 days, despite the temporary stability in U.S.-China tariffs[1] - The weakening real estate market may negatively impact future durable goods consumption and retail sales growth[1] Risks - Key risks include geopolitical tensions, domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations, and potential global recession impacts[1]

事件 据国家统计局2025年5月19日公布的数据，4月规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长6.1%，前值为7.7%，1- 4月累计同比为6.4%，2024年全年累计同比为5.8%；4月社会消费品零售总额同比增长5.1%，前值为 5.9%，1-4月累计同比为4.7%，2024年全年累计同比为3.5%；1-4月全国固定资产投资累计同比增长 4.0%，前值为4.2%，2024年全年累计同比增长3.2%。 基本观点 总体上看，在4月关税战骤然升级背景下，国内宏观经济保持较强韧性，背后主要是今年逆周期调节政 策发力，实施一个上调、两个增加，即上调财政赤字率，增加超长期特别国债发行及增加专项债发行和 使用，包括"两新"、"两重"等在内的稳增长政策效应在促消费、扩投资方面持续体现。其中，4月工业 增加值增速放缓，主要原因是当月外部经贸环境骤然收紧，工业企业出口交货值同比增速较上月大幅回 落，但内需发力仍带动当月工业生产增速处于较高水平。4月社零同比增速放缓，或主要源于外部经贸 环境变数加大，对居民消费信心造成一定影响。不过，4月以旧换新政策扩围加力在支撑居民商品消费 方面继续发挥积极作用，当月家电、通讯器材、家具、文化办公用品等 ...

Economic Performance - In April, the industrial added value grew by 6.1% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month[4] - The retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year-on-year, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month[7] - Fixed asset investment grew by 4.0% year-on-year in the first four months, a decline of 0.2 percentage points from the previous value[9] External Environment Impact - The slowdown in industrial growth is attributed to a tightening external economic environment, with export delivery value growth dropping by 6.8 percentage points to 0.9%[5] - Consumer confidence has been affected by external trade uncertainties, as indicated by a consumer confidence index of 87.5 points in March, down 0.9 points from the previous month[7] - The manufacturing PMI production index fell by 2.8 percentage points, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity due to reduced external demand[5] Policy Response - The government has implemented counter-cyclical adjustment policies, including increasing the fiscal deficit ratio and issuing special bonds to support growth[2] - The "old-for-new" policy has positively impacted consumer spending, particularly in appliances and communication equipment, with retail sales in these categories showing double-digit growth[8] - Infrastructure investment, excluding electricity, grew by 5.8% year-on-year, reflecting the government's focus on stabilizing economic growth amid external pressures[12] Future Outlook - Industrial production growth is expected to decline further to around 5.3% in May due to ongoing external trade challenges[6] - Fixed asset investment growth is projected to accelerate, particularly in infrastructure, as the government continues to push for economic stability[12] - The overall macroeconomic resilience is anticipated to persist despite external pressures, supported by proactive fiscal and monetary policies[13]

Market Overview - The major stock indices in Shanghai and Shenzhen opened lower on May 16, with the Shanghai Composite Index experiencing a decline after initial fluctuations, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices showed wider fluctuations after filling gaps [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3367.46 points, down 0.40%, with a trading volume of approximately 435.6 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component closed at 10179.60 points, down 0.07%, with a trading volume of about 653.9 billion yuan; the ChiNext Index closed at 2039.45 points, down 0.19%, with a trading volume of around 298.5 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - The PEEK materials sector and controllable nuclear fusion sector saw significant gains in the morning session, although the gains narrowed during the day, remaining among the top performers [1] - Other sectors that experienced notable increases included COVID-19 drug concepts, automotive parts, integrated die-casting, and cultivated diamonds, while sectors such as chemical fibers, warehousing logistics, and seed industry faced larger declines [1] Institutional Insights - According to Jifeng Investment Advisory, the A-share market is gradually finding a bottom with medium to long-term investment opportunities, driven by a series of counter-cyclical adjustment policies [2] - Guoyuan Securities noted that the "618" shopping festival has seen a shift in pre-sale periods, with platforms like Tmall and JD.com simplifying mechanisms and increasing subsidies, leading to strong performances from domestic products [2] - Guojin Securities highlighted that financial technology companies are actively seeking growth points in areas such as AI and overseas expansion, with a positive outlook for C-end stock trading software companies as market activity remains robust [2] Policy Developments - The Ministry of Commerce held a meeting on May 15 to promote the optimization of the departure tax refund policy, emphasizing its role in boosting consumption and responding to external shocks [3] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) announced a meeting to discuss further deepening the reform of state-owned enterprises, focusing on high-quality completion of reform actions by 2025 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the financial data for April, highlighting a significant increase in social financing and various trends in credit and government bond financing, indicating a response to external shocks and a potential shift in monetary policy [1][6][14]. Summary by Sections Social Financing - In April, social financing increased by 1.16 trillion yuan, which is approximately 1.2 trillion yuan more year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [1][7]. - The stock growth rate of social financing was 8.7%, up by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [1][7]. Credit and Financing Trends - New entity credit was 844 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 2.505 trillion yuan, which was below market expectations [8][9]. - The decline in credit is attributed to three factors: cautious sentiment due to tariff impacts, delayed financial policy implementation, and high repayment volumes from previous short-term financing [8][9]. Structure of Loans - Short-term and medium-to-long-term loans for enterprises both saw a decrease, while bill financing remained high due to its lower risk profile [2][9]. - In the household sector, medium-to-long-term loans decreased by 123.1 billion yuan, while short-term loans dropped by 401.9 billion yuan, marking the lowest level since 2007 [2][9]. Government and Corporate Bond Financing - Government bond financing increased by 976.2 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 1.0699 trillion yuan, indicating accelerated fiscal implementation [10][11]. - Corporate bond financing rose by 234 billion yuan, with city investment bonds showing some improvement, although overall levels remain low [10][11]. Monetary Aggregates - M1 grew by 1.5% year-on-year, slightly lower than expected, with a notable decrease in the deposits of government and institutional entities [12][13]. - M2 increased by 8% year-on-year, with a significant contribution from interbank assets, driven by a relatively loose monetary policy environment [5][14]. Evaluation of April Financial Data - The financial data for April reflects a notable change compared to the previous year, indicating a trend towards "moderate easing" [6][14]. - The data is seen as a temporary response to external shocks, with expectations for improved credit and financing data in May following new policy measures [6][14].

一、高供应压力持续，减产动能不足 钢厂产量维持高位，供应压力难缓解。年初以来，国内钢材延续复产路径，铁水产量呈现增加态势。根 据Mysteel数据，截至5月9日，247家钢铁企业铁水日均产量达到245.64万吨，环比增加0.22万吨，较年 初低点224.37万吨增加21.27万吨，创年内新高。主要原因在于钢厂阶段性利润修复。年初以来，螺纹钢 高炉利润均值为104元/吨，最高达到139元/吨。同时，钢厂厂内库存水平正常，没有库存压力，叠加需 求处于阶段性恢复期，生产积极性较高。 5月后需求将逐步走弱，且受成材价格跌幅普遍大于原料影响，钢厂利润持续被压缩，增产动能受到抑 制，钢厂日均铁水的计划产量预计小幅回落至240万吨，后续大幅扩产的意愿趋于谨慎，但降幅依然有 限，高供应格局短期内难以扭转。 此外，当前钢厂虽面临利润压缩，江苏地区螺纹钢利润下滑至约40元/吨，但尚未进入全面亏损区间， 因此主动减产动力不足。同时，近期市场对粗钢限产的消息继续发酵，一度提振盘面情绪，但考虑到政 策落地的时间差，对短期钢厂生产影响较小。 在短期钢厂减产意愿偏弱的情况下，市场潜在的风险可能凸显。若5月下旬需求加速下滑，而钢厂减产 滞后 ...