Core Viewpoint - The trend of "aluminum replacing copper" is becoming an inevitable choice in the industry due to rising copper prices and imbalances in market supply and demand, indicating a long-term technological revolution rather than a short-term speculation [1] Group 1: Price Dynamics - The current copper-aluminum price ratio is at a historical high, reaching 4.21 times, up from a low of 1.7 times in 2005, driven by differences in supply and demand dynamics for both metals [2] - The widening price ratio is pushing aluminum from a technical alternative to a real necessity [6] Group 2: Supply Constraints - Copper's supply lacks elasticity, primarily due to long development cycles of 7-10 years for new mines and low approval rates for environmental assessments [6][7] - In contrast, aluminum's supply constraints are mainly at the smelting stage, influenced by energy supply and water resource availability [8][10] Group 3: Technological Innovations - Systematic technological innovations in new materials, processes, and structures are making large-scale production of aluminum as a substitute for copper feasible [12] - Key technological breakthroughs expected by 2025-2026 include addressing issues like creep and electrochemical corrosion, enhancing aluminum's viability in various applications [13] Group 4: Industry Applications - In the power transmission sector, aluminum has already replaced copper in long-distance transmission lines, and its use in 5G base stations and data centers is increasing due to cost and weight considerations [15] - The air conditioning industry is moving towards standards that favor aluminum, with major companies like Daikin already using over 50% aluminum in their products by 2024 [15][16] Group 5: Market Dynamics - The aluminum sector is experiencing a restructuring phase, with companies that can secure stable, cheap, and green energy resources gaining competitive advantages [9] - China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity is capped at 45 million tons, with utilization rates nearing full capacity, indicating limited growth potential [19][21] Group 6: Financial Performance - Major players in the aluminum industry, such as China Aluminum and China Hongqiao, are positioned well in terms of production capacity and profitability, with China Aluminum holding a 17.5% domestic market share [22][23] - The financial metrics indicate that companies like China Hongqiao and Nanshan Aluminum are relatively undervalued compared to their peers, suggesting potential investment opportunities [25][26]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising trend of "aluminum replacing copper" in various industries due to the increasing copper prices and supply-demand imbalances, indicating a long-term technological shift rather than a short-term market speculation [6][7][8]. Group 1: Copper-Aluminum Price Ratio - The current copper-aluminum price ratio is at a historical high of 4.21 times, up from a low of 1.7 times in 2005, reflecting significant supply-demand differences and elasticities between the two metals [10][12]. - The widening price ratio is driving the shift from aluminum as a technical alternative to a real necessity in various applications [16]. Group 2: Supply-Demand Dynamics - Copper demand is increasing due to its role in the new energy era, while supply is constrained by long development cycles of 7-10 years and low environmental approval rates [17][18]. - In contrast, aluminum supply constraints are primarily at the smelting stage, with the industry undergoing a restructuring phase where companies with stable, low-cost, and green power resources will have competitive advantages [19][20]. - Both metals face supply elasticities, but the core constraints differ significantly, with aluminum becoming a feasible alternative in specific scenarios as technology advances [22]. Group 3: Technological Innovations - Systematic technological innovations in new materials, processes, and structures are making large-scale aluminum replacement of copper feasible [24]. - Key technological breakthroughs expected by 2025-2026 include solutions for creep, electrochemical corrosion, and improved conductivity, which will address traditional aluminum material pain points [25][26]. Group 4: Industry Applications - In the power transmission sector, aluminum has already replaced copper in long-distance transmission lines, and its use in 5G base stations and data centers is increasing due to weight and cost considerations [27]. - The air conditioning industry is moving towards aluminum, with major players like Daikin already using over 50% aluminum in their products by 2024 [28]. - The automotive sector is rapidly advancing in aluminum applications, with new aluminum alloy materials developed to solve corrosion issues and optimize creep performance, expected to be implemented by 2026 [30]. Group 5: Investment Logic - The current investment logic in the aluminum sector revolves around the "aluminum replacing copper" trend and the strategic value driven by resource nationalism [33]. - The electrolytic aluminum capacity utilization rate is nearing full capacity, with major companies like China Aluminum and China Hongqiao leading in production [34][36]. - Companies with aluminum ore and energy resources are expected to have more elastic performance in the face of price increases, with a focus on optimizing resource combinations [38]. Group 6: Financial Performance and Valuation - Financial performance metrics indicate that companies like China Hongqiao and Nanshan Aluminum International have lower P/E ratios, while ROE is high for companies like Nanshan Aluminum and Huafeng Aluminum [39][40]. - The overall aluminum sector is not undervalued, but individual stock differentiation is evident, with some companies like Nanshan International Aluminum and China Hongqiao appearing relatively undervalued [41][42].

Report Information - Report Type: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: January 14, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Core Viewpoints - On the 13th, the night session of Shanghai Aluminum continued to rise to the 25,000 mark and then declined for adjustment. The closing price at the end of the session dropped 0.85% to 24,375 yuan/ton, and the total open interest decreased by 20,000 lots to around 770,000 lots. The high aluminum price suppressed downstream procurement demand, and the overall trading sentiment of buyers declined compared with the previous trading day. The discounts in East China, Central China, and South China were -60, -220, and -45 respectively. [7] - In the short term, the overall supply of aluminum increased slightly. New projects in China and Indonesia continued to ramp up production, driving up the daily average output. Although the shutdown of an aluminum plant in Mozambique was finalized, it would still operate at full capacity in the first quarter, and the market had basically digested this news. [7] - High aluminum prices suppressed terminal demand. Downstream enterprises generally adopted strategies of delaying procurement and consuming inventories, and the weekly inventory quickly accumulated and exceeded the 700,000-ton mark. [7] - The operation logic of the aluminum market was still dominated by the macro and capital sentiment. As copper and gold prices rose significantly, funds continued to buy relatively undervalued resource products, which supported the aluminum price to be more likely to rise than to fall. [7] Industry News - 19 air-conditioning enterprises and research institutions, including Midea, Haier, and Xiaomi, jointly launched the implementation work of the "aluminum replacing copper" series of standards, triggering market discussions. Due to the continuous rise in copper prices, the price difference between copper and aluminum was about three times. Some brand stores said they would launch aluminum household air-conditioning products as soon as 2026, while others had no such plan. [10] - Lizhong Group said that its production and operation had been stable in recent years, and the overall capacity utilization rate had gradually increased. The second phase of the 3.6 million ultra-lightweight aluminum alloy wheel project in its Mexican factory, with a capacity of 1.8 million, had achieved initial production. The third aluminum alloy wheel factory in Thailand, with an annual production capacity of 3 million cast-rotated aluminum alloy wheels, was expected to be put into production next year. The high-performance aluminum alloy new material projects newly built in Chongqing, Huaian, Changchun, Thailand, and other places would be put into production from the fourth quarter of this year to next year. [10][11] - India's state-owned National Aluminium Company (Nalco) planned to start the mining of the Pottangi bauxite mine in Odisha in June 2026 to support the expansion of its integrated aluminum business. It had awarded the development and operation rights of the mine to Dilip Buildcon Ltd. To match the increase in mining capacity, Nalco was expanding the fifth production line at its Damanjodi alumina refinery, which would increase the annual capacity by 1 million tons to 3.275 million tons. [11]

Group 1: Company Overview and Market Position - The company has been involved in aluminum material business since 2015, producing aluminum pipes and micro-channel flat tubes for various applications, including air conditioning and new energy sectors [1] - The company is a leading supplier of copper pipes and has not been affected by the recent aluminum substitution standards due to its diverse product offerings [1] Group 2: Global Expansion and Project Updates - The Morocco project is a key part of the company's global strategy, aimed at leveraging international operational advantages and mitigating domestic market risks [2] - The construction of the Morocco base is progressing steadily and will include high-end copper processing products such as copper foil, rods, and fittings [2] Group 3: Production Capacity and Demand - There is a current shortfall in copper foil production capacity due to high market demand, but the company is enhancing capacity utilization through technology upgrades [2] - Future capacity expansion will be based on customer orders and market demand, with plans to add new production lines if necessary [2] Group 4: Supply Chain and Procurement - The company has a global procurement strategy for raw materials, supported by a network of 23 production bases to ensure efficient and secure supply chains [2] Group 5: Research and Development Collaborations - The company is actively engaging in partnerships with universities for research in AI and new energy sectors, including the establishment of joint laboratories with West Lake University and Zhejiang University [3] Group 6: Employee Incentives and Performance Metrics - The 2026 employee stock ownership plan is designed to align the management team's efforts with industry trends and includes a clear assessment system based on 2025 operational data [3]

国内方面，财政部、税务总局宣布自 2026 年 4 月 1 日起取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税，此举利于国 外市场价格理性回归，降低贸易摩擦风险，缓解财政负担，促进资源合理配置。当前，资金回流做多推 动沪铝冲击历史高点。 CCMN国际市场：今日伦铝震荡走强，LME三个月北京时间14：55报于3166美元/吨，较上一交易日结 算价涨17美元/吨，涨幅0.54%。 国内期货：今日沪铝主力月2603合约走势强劲，盘中一路高歌猛进；开盘价报24560元/吨，盘中最高 24915元/吨，最低24370元/吨，昨日结算24040元/吨，尾盘收至24650元/吨，涨610元，涨幅2.54%；沪 铝主力月2603合约全天成交量655007手增加101468手，持仓量379081手增加47161手。 CCMN现货市场评述：今日长江现货成交价格24320-24360元/吨，涨310元，贴水115-贴水75，持平；广 东现货24375-24425元/吨，涨300元，贴水55-贴水5，跌5元；上海地区24310-24350元/吨，涨310元，贴 水125-贴水85，持平。 宏观层面，美国 12 月非农数据小幅不及预期，但失业率超预期回 ...

Core Viewpoint - The air conditioning industry is shifting towards aluminum as a substitute for copper, with many companies signing a self-regulatory agreement to promote this transition. However, Gree Electric Appliances, led by Chairman Dong Mingzhu, firmly opposes this shift, emphasizing the need for quality assurance before adopting aluminum technology [1][2][6]. Industry Trends - A self-regulatory agreement was signed by 19 air conditioning companies to promote the use of aluminum heat exchangers, aiming to enhance consumer trust in the technology [1][6]. - The aluminum substitution can reduce material costs by 20%-25%, with significant savings projected for manufacturers [7]. - The first domestic "aluminum substitute for copper" air conditioner is set to launch, priced approximately 20% lower than traditional copper models [7]. Gree's Position - Gree continues to prioritize copper in its products, with Dong Mingzhu stating that the technology for aluminum has not yet reached the reliability of copper [2][6]. - Gree's commitment to copper is seen as both a brand declaration and a potential strategic limitation, as the company faces increasing competition and market pressures [6][12]. Financial Performance - Gree reported a revenue of 137.18 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 6.50% year-on-year, with a net profit of 21.46 billion yuan, down 2.27% [13][18]. - The air conditioning segment, which constitutes 78.38% of Gree's total revenue, has shown a decline, indicating a reliance on a single product line [13][18]. Competitive Landscape - Competitors like Xiaomi and Midea are adopting a more flexible approach, focusing on cost efficiency and appealing to price-sensitive consumers, which poses a threat to Gree's market share [12][20]. - Gree's average air conditioner price is significantly higher than that of competitors, limiting its competitiveness in the mid-range market [19][20]. Strategic Challenges - Gree's focus on high-quality products has led to a brand image that may be perceived as outdated by younger consumers, who prioritize smart features and design [26][27]. - The company's diversification efforts, such as the "Dong Mingzhu Health Home" initiative, have raised questions about brand identity and market positioning [30][31]. Future Outlook - The industry is moving towards aluminum technology, which may lead to Gree losing its influence in setting industry standards if it continues to resist this shift [25]. - The long-term viability of Gree's strategy of maintaining a copper-only approach is under scrutiny as market dynamics evolve [32].

从基本面看，国内电解铝产能触顶、后续供应增加有限；海外部分电解铝炼厂因电力问题减停产，且新 增产能落地不及预期，整体供应难有明显增长。需求端，淡季下游需求整体疲软，市场"恐高"情绪蔓 延，现货交投谨慎。不过，环保限产解除后，下游铝加工企业开工率有所回升。尽管传统地产行业持续 低迷，但新能源领域需求爆发，特别是人工智能、算力基础、人形机器人及低空经济的快速发展，为铝 需求带来广阔预期。此外，铜价不断创出新高，催生"铝代铜"兴起，铝需求预期强劲。然而，上期所库 存数据显示，1月9日当周铝锭社会库存继续累积，环比增加10.8%至14.38万吨，反映出当前现货交易低 迷的现实。 综合来看，短期内铝价处于高位，且季节性淡季持续抑制终端需求，后续库存可能继续累积。但盘面上 多头情绪高涨，沪铝有阶段性反弹预期，整体呈震荡上扬态势，今现铝价格或大幅上涨。 伦敦金属交易所（LME）1月9日伦铝最新库存量报497825公吨，较上个交易日减少1925吨，跌幅 0.39%。 长江铝业网讯：1月9日现货铝价，长江现货A00铝锭价报24030元/吨，涨30元；广东现货A00铝锭价报 24100元/吨，涨70元。 宏观层面，周五美国劳工部 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply of aluminum is difficult to increase significantly, while the future demand is expected to improve, which will support the aluminum price in the long - term. However, in the short term, the off - season demand weakens, and the social inventory accumulates, so the aluminum price may maintain a high - level shock. It is recommended to allocate at low prices and pay attention to changes in macro - emotions [5]. - The price of aluminum alloy will continue to remain high due to its strong follow - up to Shanghai aluminum, tight raw materials, and the impact of illegal tax refund policies [69]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Report Summary - US economic data is mixed, with some employment data falling short of expectations, and the labor market is sluggish. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation at the end - of - the - month meeting is still unclear, and the geopolitical premium of non - ferrous metals has heated up. - The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is approaching the ceiling, with limited space for further increase. Overseas production has reduced or stopped due to power issues, and the new production increase is uncertain. The demand is in the off - season, and the downstream demand is weak. - The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises has increased, but the cost pressure is difficult to be transmitted downstream, and the terminal's acceptance of high - priced raw materials is limited. The social inventory of aluminum ingots continues to accumulate. Although the traditional real - estate demand is average, the new energy demand is expected to boost aluminum demand, and the "aluminum replacing copper" trend will also increase demand [5]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Focus - **Bullish factors**: The operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum has little change, the US dollar index is in a weak position, and the domestic market has a high risk appetite [8]. - **Bearish factors**: The social inventory in the domestic market is accumulating, and the precious - metal market is cooling down [8]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Aluminum Bauxite**: From January to November, China's cumulative output of aluminum bauxite increased year - on - year, but the output in November decreased year - on - year, with significant differentiation in major producing areas. The domestic supply is tight, while the import volume in November increased month - on - month and year - on - year, and the overseas supply may be relatively loose [18][21]. - **Alumina**: In 2025, the new domestic production capacity was less than expected. It is expected that in 2026, new production capacity will be added, and the supply is expected to continue to be in surplus [25]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In November 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. The operating capacity increased slightly, and it is expected that the operating capacity will increase slightly in the future, while the proportion of molten aluminum may continue to decline [30]. - **Downstream Processing**: The off - season demand is weak, but the operating rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises has increased due to the lifting of environmental protection restrictions [33]. - **Inventory**: The LME aluminum inventory has decreased slightly, while the SHFE aluminum inventory has increased. The social inventory of aluminum continues to accumulate [43][47]. - **Price**: The domestic spot discount range has narrowed, and the LME aluminum discount range has also decreased [51]. - **Recycled Aluminum**: In November, the domestic production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased month - on - month. The waste - aluminum supply is tight, and the operating rate is stable. The import volume of waste aluminum in November increased month - on - month and year - on - year [55][63]. 3.4 Market Outlook - **Aluminum Alloy**: It has a strong follow - up to Shanghai aluminum, and due to tight raw materials and the impact of illegal tax refund policies, the price will continue to maintain a high level [69]. - **Shanghai Aluminum**: In the short term, it may maintain a high - level shock. It is still recommended to allocate at low prices and pay attention to changes in macro - emotions [71].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **沪铜**: Opened lower and then rebounded during the day, with increased positions and a recovery that almost offset the previous night's decline. Short - term, the game between long and short positions intensified, and the profit - taking intention of funds rose. The weak industrial reality also pressured the futures price. The macro atmosphere dominated the price trend, and with the warming of the atmosphere during the day, commodities generally rebounded. It is advisable to continuously monitor the support of the 10 - day moving average in the short term [6]. - **沪铝**: Significantly increased positions and rose, approaching the previous high. Since Wednesday, the macro atmosphere cooled and non - ferrous metals generally declined, but the aluminum price was relatively strong. This is because its macro attribute is relatively weaker than copper, and the expectation of aluminum replacing copper has been fermenting since December, with strong industrial expectations. However, the industrial side is still in a weak reality stage, and the electrolytic aluminum inventory has increased significantly. Technically, the aluminum price faces pressure at the 2021 high. It is necessary to continuously monitor the game between long and short positions [7]. - **沪镍**: Declined significantly with increased positions yesterday and rebounded after hitting the bottom today. Since the end of December, the nickel price has rebounded significantly, so the recent correction has also been relatively large. At present, the industry is still in a situation of over - supply, which puts pressure on the futures price, but news from Indonesia has reversed the industry's expectations. Technically, it is necessary to continuously monitor the game between long and short positions at the 140,000 mark [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: SMM predicts that the operating rate of the copper strip industry will continue to decline to 67.2% in January. In January, the copper price continued to hit new highs, and the terminal market's carrying capacity was on the verge of the limit. Some downstream enterprises even planned to start the Spring Festival holiday in advance, and the industry as a whole showed a "lying flat" state. The production and operation pressure of copper strip enterprises has increased significantly. The high - level operation of the copper price has continuously suppressed the release of new orders, and the order volume at the beginning of the month has dropped significantly. In addition, the adjustment of the recycled copper - related policy has led to double dilemmas of difficult raw material procurement and a significant increase in costs for tin - phosphorus bronze strip enterprises, and they have started to reduce production. Some enterprises plan to carry out year - end equipment overhauls, which also have an impact on the actual output in January. In December 2025, the overall operating rate of copper strip enterprises was 68.21%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.17 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.09 percentage points. Among them, the operating rate of large enterprises was 76.95%, that of medium - sized enterprises was 54.21%, and that of small enterprises was 59.02% [10]. - **Aluminum**: On January 8th, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 718,000 tons, with a cumulative inventory increase of 80,000 tons before the New Year's Day [11]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: The report provides charts on copper basis, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, global copper exchange inventory, SHFE warrant inventory, and copper month - spread [12][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts on aluminum basis, aluminum month - spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory, aluminum rod inventory, and Shanghai - London ratio [23][25][27]. - **Nickel**: The report offers charts on nickel basis, nickel month - spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [35][37][39].

Group 1: Industry Trends - The company views the trend of "aluminum replacing copper" as significant due to cost advantages, with copper prices exceeding 100,000 CNY/ton while aluminum prices remain stable [2] - The shift from copper to aluminum in heat exchangers for refrigeration in appliances is a key development direction, indicating a broader industry trend [2] - The trend of "aluminum replacing copper" is expanding from the air conditioning and home appliance sectors to high-growth areas such as new energy vehicles and power generation, highlighting its importance for both cost reduction and national resource security [2] Group 2: Automotive Sector - The company's automotive sector primarily collaborates with major clients such as Changan, JAC, Chery, and Songzhi [3] - The recent approval of L3 level conditional autonomous driving vehicles by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is expected to create new market demand, providing development opportunities for the company [3] - The company aims to deepen cooperation with existing core clients, leveraging synchronous R&D and quality systems to enhance the value and market share of its automotive components [3] Group 3: Data Center Development - The company is focusing on the research and production of efficient liquid cooling heat exchange equipment for data centers [3] - The global data center market is expected to continue expanding due to the increasing maturity and application of technologies such as artificial intelligence and cloud computing [3] - The company plans to actively seize market opportunities by aligning its technological capabilities and production capacity with industry trends [3]