观察者网消息，美国财政部长贝森特22日被爆向投资者承认，眼下中美关税对峙僵局"难以为继"，并称预 计"短时间内"将出现缓和态势后，"先眨眼"的美国总统特朗普再度释放"降温"信号。 据美联社23日报道，当地时间周二（22日），特朗普在白宫椭圆形办公室表示，在关税谈判期间他不会对 中国采取 "强硬手段"，并"乐观"认为能够"相当迅速地"与之达成一项协议，"大幅下调"对中国进口商品加 征的145%巨额关税。 在被问到是否会对中国采取"强硬态度"时，特朗普否认说："不，我不会说'我要对中方强硬'。我们会以非 常友好的态度对待他们，他们也会友好相待，然后我们拭目以待会发生什么。" 继续凭空造牌，他在回答另一个问题时又补充称，如果未与中国达成贸易协议，"我们只需要设定（关 税）数字就行"。 《今日美国》报道称，尽管中美之间的正式贸易谈判尚未启动，但特朗普仍摆出一副信誓旦旦的模 样，"这份协议对于每个人而言都是公平的。而且我认为这个（谈判）过程很快会完成。" 在后续提问中，特朗普也重申了不想继续提高对华关税的态度。在谈到高达145%的对华关税时，他声称， 针对中国进口商品的关税税率不会维持在当前水平，"145%的税率非常高 ...

"很多东西，我认为其他国家是没有办法替代的。"斯贝乐电器（浙江）股份有限公司CEO王鑫对第一财 经记者表示。 斯贝乐总部位于浙江省台州市，主要产品包括商用冰淇淋机，冰沙机，奶茶机，泡茶机，制冰机等商用 茶饮设备等，美国是其海外第一大市场。美国政府滥施关税，给中国制造业带来困扰，过高的关税影响 出口，但王鑫认为中国企业的竞争力不会消失。 台州地理环境"七山一水二分田"，并没有发展制造业的优质条件，但这里有不少企业已经走向全球。台 州企业家极能适应和改造环境，如果土地不够，他们填海造地，并在上面建造起厂房；如果市场不够 大，他们愿意飞到欧洲小国去开拓边缘市场。近期，第一财经采访了部分台州企业，了解他们如何应对 这场骤然而来的关税战。 "不会停，继续生产" 王鑫是斯贝乐的二代接班人。 斯贝乐的产品主打海外市场，美国又是重中之重。斯贝乐在美国的四个城市新泽西、亚特兰大、休斯 敦、洛杉矶都租用了仓储设施，基本上做到辐射全美市场。 据王鑫介绍，斯贝乐目前海外收入占比约70%，海外收入中美国占比60%，欧洲占比25%。美国毫无合 理性的关税政策之后，斯贝乐向美国出口的产品被加征了高达170%的关税。 在关税落地之前，斯贝乐 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "America First Investment Policy" memorandum continues the Trump administration's stance on strengthening foreign investment reviews, focusing on a "differentiated" review mechanism that relaxes investment restrictions from allies while strictly controlling investments from "foreign adversaries" [1][3]. Summary by Sections Investment Policy Framework - The memorandum aims to promote the development of high-tech industries like AI domestically while welcoming investments from allies and partners, provided they align with U.S. interests and benefit the American people [5]. - Investments from allied countries will have a "fast-track" process, facilitating easier access to U.S. technology sectors, but must avoid collaboration with foreign adversaries [5]. Regulatory Measures - The Trump administration has previously issued several executive orders regarding foreign investment restrictions, including Executive Order 13959 and its revision 14032, as well as Biden's 14032 and the recent 14105 [4]. - The policy framework includes various entity lists for investment control, such as NS-CMIC List, SDN List, MEU List, and Entity List, with additional attention to CMC List and UFLPA Entity List [4]. Entity Lists and Their Implications - The NS-CMIC List targets U.S. persons' investments in Chinese military-related companies, with 68 entities listed as of January 2025, primarily in capital goods and technology hardware sectors [9]. - The SDN List includes entities that face asset freezes and transaction bans, with over 600 Chinese entities listed, mainly related to sanctions against Russia and Iran [12][13]. - The Entity List restricts access to sensitive technologies for over 900 Chinese entities, particularly in software, hardware, and semiconductor sectors [17]. - The MEU List is used to control items for military purposes, with 71 Chinese entities listed as of January 2025 [18]. - The CMC List, established by the Department of Defense, includes 134 Chinese entities, primarily in capital goods and technology sectors, with potential future restrictions [21]. - The UFLPA Entity List focuses on products linked to forced labor allegations, with 144 Chinese entities listed, affecting various industries [23]. Future Considerations - The U.S. government may further develop new tools to limit investments in Chinese companies, although successful negotiations between the U.S. and China could render the memorandum less impactful [27].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 4 月 22 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 市场氛围偏空，焦煤偏弱运行 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 成本端拖累，焦炭低位震荡 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：4 月 21 日夜盘，焦煤主力合约再次走弱，日 ...

文 ｜ 肖斐斐 胡家俊 彭博 林楠 李鑫 已披露经营情况的6家银行情况看，一季度财务指标和资产质量总体稳健。此外，上周银行板块表 现乐观，核心驱动要素在于市场波动率加大背景下，银行板块受益于其稳定回报和股指权重的两大 优势。展望未来，短期看中美贸易摩擦对市场预期仍有影响，在此背景下低波板块具有配置价值 中期看，在宏观"审慎"和"走弱"的两种假设情形下，银行板块相对于大部分行业而言，基本面具备 相对稳健特征，相对价值显著，建议积极增配。 ▍ 事项： 截至2 0 2 5年4月2 0日，6家上市银行（包含1家大行，3家股份行及2家农商行）已披露2 0 2 5年一季 度业绩或经营情况。 ▍ 一季报汇总：整体稳健，分化延续。 已有6家银行披露业绩或经营预告，整体来看，银行扩表 策略积极，收入增长分化，资产质量稳定。 ▍ 投资观点：关注板块防御属性与确定性价值。 已披露经营情况的6家银行情况看，一季度财务指标和资产质量总体稳健。此外，上周银行板块 表现乐观，核心驱动要素在于市场波动率加大背景下，银行板块受益于其稳定回报和股指权重的 两大优势。展望未来，短期看中美贸易摩擦对市场预期仍有影响，在此背景下低波板块具有配置 价值 ...

点击图片▲立即试听 " 我们手中的牌并不多，楼市是其中必须打好的、最重要的一张。 " 文 / 巴九灵（微信公众号：吴晓波频道） 所有宏大的叙事，最终都会落到一个家庭的起居之间。 2025 年春天，中美贸易摩擦不断加码，中国出口压力与日俱增，从沿海工厂到内陆中小企业，不少人开始重新计算接下来的账本：订单缩水、利 润承压，甚至员工的稳定性也打起了问号。 宏观经济的温度计，正在测量每一个家庭最重要的决策之一 —— 买不买房，换不换房？ 楼市退场？没那么简单 近日，国家统计局公布了 2025 年第一季度宏观经济的 " 成绩单 " 。在中美贸易摩擦愈演愈烈、全球供应链重新洗牌的紧张氛围下，市场的目光 集中投向了 " 出口 " 和 " 消费 " 这两大被寄予厚望的动能引擎，而它们也的确未让人失望： 一季度，中国出口同比增长 6.9% ，社会消费品零售总额同比增长 4.6% ，就连一度风光不再的投资，也靠着制造业和基建的 " 二重奏 " ，拉出 了同比 4.2% 的增长。 —— 吴晓波 然而，亮眼成绩单的第二页，一个熟悉的身影却明显掉队了 —— 一季度，我国房地产开发投资同比下降 9.9% 。 这个曾经以一己之力拉动中国经 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][7][9] Core Viewpoints - The cotton market may gradually return to fundamentals as trade friction eases. Attention has shifted to new - season supply, and the market needs to focus on the drought in US cotton - growing areas and domestic demand trends [2] - The sugar market is currently in a situation where short - term international supply and demand are tight, but the medium - term price may be under pressure. Zhengzhou sugar prices mainly follow the trend of raw sugar [5][6] - The pulp market is affected by macro - policies and supply - demand relationships. Although the trade friction has eased, the short - term price is expected to remain under pressure [8][9] Summary by Commodity Cotton Market News and Key Data - The closing price of the Zhengzhou cotton 2509 contract was 12,890 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton (+0.47%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,032 yuan/ton, down 97 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 14,200 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan/ton [1] - As of the week of April 13, 2025, India's weekly cotton listing volume was 160,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 171%. The cumulative listing volume in the 2024/25 season was 4.3778 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1% [1] Market Analysis - Zhengzhou cotton futures prices fluctuated and closed higher. Trade friction has a limited impact, and the market may return to fundamentals. The USDA report was slightly bearish, and attention should be paid to the drought in US cotton - growing areas. Domestic supply is abundant, and downstream demand is weak [2] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. Cotton prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - The closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract was 5,936 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan/ton (+0.88%) from the previous day. The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,170 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,930 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] - As of April 15, 2025, in the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, there were 37 sugar mills still in production in India, 37 fewer than the same period last year. The amount of crushed sugarcane was 271.328 million tons, a decrease of 35.292 million tons (-11.51%), and sugar production was 25.425 million tons, a decrease of 5.74 million tons (-18.42%) [4] Market Analysis - Zhengzhou sugar futures prices were strong. The short - term international sugar market supply and demand are tight, but the medium - term price may be under pressure. Domestic sugar prices are expected to fluctuate before the import of sugar supplements [5][6] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. Focus on Brazilian weather and policy changes [7] Pulp Market News and Key Data - The closing price of the pulp 2507 contract was 5,332 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton (-0.45%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 6,350 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,400 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [7] - The spot price of imported wood pulp was mainly stable, with some minor adjustments [7] Market Analysis - Pulp futures prices were weakly volatile. The "reciprocal tariff" policy affected the market, but the trade friction has temporarily eased. Supply is abundant, and demand is weak [8] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. The short - term pulp futures prices are expected to remain under pressure [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on industry investment rating 2. Report's Core View - For both coking coal and coke, the short - term and medium - term views are "sideways", and the intraday view is "sideways to weak", with an overall "sideways" approach [1][5][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal (JM) - **Price and Market Performance**: On the night of April 17, the main coking coal contract continued to decline, hitting a new low for the year, with moving averages in a bearish arrangement. As of the latest data, the latest quotation of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimao Port is 1035.0 yuan/ton, down 4.2% week - on - week, with the equivalent futures warehouse receipt cost about 1008 yuan/ton [5] - **Core Logic**: In March, the national raw coal output reached 440 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%, indicating continued pressure on the coking coal supply side. The Sino - US trade friction has increased the impact of macro factors, with concerns about the export of black terminal products and the need for time to improve domestic demand in real estate and infrastructure. The supply of coking coal remains high, downstream demand support is insufficient, and overseas macro negatives have recently exerted pressure, so coking coal futures continue to operate weakly [5] Coke (J) - **Price and Market Performance**: On the night of April 17, coke futures fluctuated weakly. The J2509 contract closed at 1553.5 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.99% during the night session. The latest quoted price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port is 1440 yuan/ton, up 3.60% week - on - week, with the equivalent futures warehouse receipt cost about 1583 yuan/ton [6] - **Core Logic**: The futures market shows intense long - short competition. The domestic demand for ferrous metals has been relatively weak due to the real estate and infrastructure industries in recent years. The intensification of the Sino - US trade friction in April has deepened concerns about the medium - and long - term demand for black series commodities, suppressing the market atmosphere. Although the short - term fundamentals of coking coal have improved, concerns about the cost side and medium - and long - term demand have dragged down coke futures to operate at low levels [6]

Summary of the Conference Call on the Lubricant Additives Industry Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the lubricant additives industry in China, particularly in the context of the US-China trade tensions and the impact of tariffs and the pandemic on the market dynamics [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Market Dynamics - Domestic lubricant blending plants are accelerating the localization of raw materials to reduce costs due to tariff and pandemic pressures [1]. - Tariff increases have significantly raised the costs of high-end lubricants that use imported additives, prompting blending plants to consider domestic alternatives [1][2]. - The Chinese lubricant additives market is substantial, with foreign brands holding a significant market share, but there is a clear trend towards domestic substitution [1][2][22]. Market Segmentation - The domestic lubricant blending plants are categorized into four main types: foreign-funded, state-owned, private, and emerging enterprises. Foreign brands account for approximately 17%-18% of the market, while state-owned brands hold about 30% [1][8]. - Major players like Sinopec and PetroChina have substantial annual demands for lubricant additives but remain highly dependent on four major suppliers [1][21]. Price Changes and Cost Pressures - The price of key additives like detergents has surged due to tariff impacts, with prices rising from approximately 17,000-18,000 RMB per ton to 27,000-28,000 RMB, reflecting a significant increase of 10,000 RMB per ton [2]. - Despite rising costs for single additives, the prices of domestic compound additives have not seen widespread increases due to their high profit margins [2][4]. Strategic Responses - Companies are focusing on enhancing supply chain management and optimizing procurement channels to cope with international supply chain uncertainties [4]. - The industry is witnessing a shift from producing single components to focusing on compound additives, with companies like Ruifeng New Materials successfully transitioning [2][3][4]. Regulatory and Certification Importance - API certification is crucial for lubricant companies, as it enhances product quality and market competitiveness, although it also incurs high costs [1][47]. Future Trends - The market is expected to see continued growth in domestic production capabilities, with companies like Ruifeng and Wuxi Southern leading the way in innovation and market share expansion [44][51]. - The ongoing trade tensions and tariff adjustments are likely to accelerate the domestic substitution process, particularly for state-owned enterprises [23][24]. Additional Important Insights - The lubricant additives market in China is estimated to have a capacity of around 800,000 to 900,000 tons, with foreign brands, especially the top four, holding about 65% of the market share [22]. - The impact of tariffs on the cost structure of lubricant products is significant, with potential increases in production costs leading to higher retail prices [30][32]. - The competitive landscape is evolving, with domestic companies increasingly challenging established foreign brands through cost-effective and high-quality products [44][45][57]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and developments within the lubricant additives industry as discussed in the conference call, highlighting the challenges and strategic responses of key players in the market.

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: PTA, short - fiber, benzene - ethylene [1] - **Bearish**: polysilicon, BR rubber, urea, methanol [1] - **Neutral**: Most varieties are rated as "oscillating", including stock index, treasury bond, gold, etc.; some are "oscillating (-)", "oscillating (bullish)", "oscillating (bearish)"; and some are recommended to "observe" or "wait - and - see" [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Market sentiment may improve as Sino - US trade frictions may enter the negotiation stage, but macro risks still exist due to ongoing tariff negotiations [1]. - Supply - demand relationships vary across different industries. Some industries face over - supply, while others see a narrowing gap between supply and demand [1]. - Different commodities show different price trends, including oscillations, upward movements, and downward trends, influenced by factors such as policies, supply - demand dynamics, and market sentiment [1]. 3. Summaries by Industry Categories Macroeconomic Finance - **Stock Index**: After a rapid 3 - 4 day rebound, the upward momentum may weaken under macro - negative factors. The strategy is to buy on dips [1]. - **Treasury Bond**: Asset shortages and a weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks limit the upside [1]. - **Gold**: After a short - term adjustment, it is expected to enter an oscillating phase and has long - term upward potential [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Aluminum Oxide**: With continuous release of domestic production capacity, the oversupply situation persists, putting pressure on prices [1]. - **Zinc**: Due to ongoing tariff negotiations and insufficient fundamental drivers, it is recommended to wait and observe, with potential for a backwardation trade [1]. - **Nickel**: After short - term macro - sentiment repair, nickel prices are expected to oscillate and rebound. Attention should be paid to cost support and buying on dips is suggested [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: There is an expectation of bottom - end repair. It is advisable to wait and observe and consider buying on dips, while the industry should focus on policy changes and steel - mill production schedules [1]. - **Tin**: Semiconductors may be exempt from "reciprocal tariffs", leading to a short - term rebound. Continued attention should be paid to tin - mine resumption and tariff situations [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is strengthening while demand is weakening, and it has entered a low - valuation range with no improvement in demand and high inventory pressure [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The basic pattern is oversupply, and with the end of the installation rush, demand will decline in the second half of the year, and futures premiums are high [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The gap between supply and demand is narrowing. Although inventory is increasing, low prices are attracting downstream buyers [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Trade disputes are increasing pressure on the export chain, leading to a slightly lower risk appetite and downward - opening prices in the short term [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Tariff policies are affecting market sentiment, and iron ore, with strong financial attributes, is under short - term pressure [1]. - **Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron**: Manganese silicon has high inventory but cost support, while silicon iron has cost loosening but production cuts in some areas and neutral social inventory [1]. - **Glass**: Demand is being released in pulses. As near - month positions decrease, the multi - short game is weakening [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Alkali plants are resuming production, and although demand is increasing, medium - term supply is expected to be excessive, putting pressure on prices [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Supply and demand are relatively excessive, and it is recommended that industrial customers take advantage of price rebounds for cash - and - carry arbitrage and selling hedges [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: With increasing production in Malaysia and rising inventory in Indonesia, the price center is expected to shift downward [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The far - month contracts are bullish due to tariff policies, but the near - month contracts are weak due to high inventory. A backwardation trade can be considered [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Supported by Sino - Canadian trade uncertainties and recent cold snaps, the market is strong, but near - month contracts are under pressure from high inventory. A 5 - 9 backwardation trade can be considered [1]. - **Cotton**: If crude oil prices continue to fall, cotton - spinning demand may weaken, and the substitution effect between chemical fibers and cotton will also affect cotton prices. Overseas supply shortages and domestic high - level industrial inventory have different impacts on prices [1]. - **Sugar**: Overseas supply shortages are driving up the international sugar price, while domestic high - level industrial inventory is suppressing the domestic price [1]. - **Corn**: In the short term, it is expected to oscillate as the market waits for the release of spot pressure. In the medium term, it is expected to be slightly bullish due to tight annual supply - demand [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: The planting area in the US may be reduced, providing strong support for the bottom of US soybeans. Under the trade war, the far - month Brazilian discount is expected to have limited decline, and buying on dips for far - month contracts is recommended [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: There is no positive news, but the current futures price is significantly lower than the Russian needle pulp price, so it is recommended to wait and observe [1]. - **Logs**: With high inventory and falling terminal product prices, and further negative impacts from Sino - US trade disputes, the price is expected to oscillate downward [1]. - **Pigs**: With the continuous recovery of pig inventory and increasing slaughter weight, the futures price is at a large discount to the spot price, and there are no bright spots in the downstream [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: Repeated US tariff policies, accelerated OPEC+ production increases, and the smooth progress of the Iran nuclear deal are affecting market sentiment [1]. - **Asphalt**: Cost - side drag, low but increasing inventory, and slow demand recovery are the main factors [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: Repeated US tariffs, increasing domestic inventory, and the impact of the state - reserve policy are influencing the market [1]. - **PTA**: As tariff panic eases, PX prices are rising strongly, but downstream production cuts are affecting demand [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Some production facilities are under maintenance or reducing production [1]. - **Short - fiber**: Factories are reducing production, expanding processing margins, and the cost side is strengthening [1]. - **Styrene**: Pure - benzene prices are rebounding, and downstream procurement demand is fair. The actual impact of tariffs on the spot market needs further observation [1]. - **Urea**: With fewer new orders, the market price is expected to be stable but weak in the short term [1]. - **Methanol**: The basis is stable, and the spot market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1]. - **PE**: Due to high macro - risks, weak crude - oil prices, and insufficient orders, the market sentiment is weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - **PP**: With the return of some previously - shut - down facilities, stable demand, and intensified trade wars, the market sentiment is weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - **PVC**: Although short - term exports are good, the weak fundamentals and high macro - risks prevent a trending upward movement [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Trade disputes are causing upstream production cuts, and the spot price is stabilizing, while the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. Others - **Container Shipping (European Route)**: Given the strong expectation but weak reality, it is advisable to wait and see when prices are falling. For peak - season contracts, light - position long - entry can be attempted, and a 6 - 8 backwardation trade can be continuously monitored [1].