Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish/bearish trend with weak operability on the market [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bullish/bearish trend with weak operability on the market [1] - Alumina: ★☆☆, showing a slightly bullish/bearish trend with weak operability on the market [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆, meaning a slightly bullish/bearish trend with weak operability on the market [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆, representing a slightly bullish/bearish trend with weak operability on the market [1] - Tin: ★☆☆, denoting a slightly bullish/bearish trend with weak operability on the market [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆, signifying a slightly bullish/bearish trend with weak operability on the market [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★☆☆, implying a slightly bullish/bearish trend with weak operability on the market [1] - Polysilicon: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish/bearish trend with weak operability on the market [1] Core Views - The report provides daily analysis of various non - ferrous metals, including market trends, supply - demand fundamentals, and trading strategies [2][3][4] Summary by Metals Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper reduced positions significantly, with the price fluctuating narrowly around 78,000 yuan. The spot copper price was 78,060 yuan. After the contract change, the premium in Shanghai was 95 yuan and 60 yuan in Guangdong. The refined - scrap price difference was 780 yuan [2] - Overnight, the US CPI rose year - on - year, and the impact of tariffs was gradually emerging. The Fed was likely to "stand still" at the end of the month. Traders were advised to hold short positions or try to sell call options with an exercise price of 80,000 yuan and buy put options with an exercise price of 76,000 yuan on the 2508 contract [2] Aluminum and Alumina - Shanghai aluminum rebounded slightly, with a spot premium of 90 yuan in East China. The inventory of aluminum ingots increased by over 30,000 tons on Monday. The price broke the upward trend line, and there was short - term callback pressure [3] - Cast aluminum alloy followed the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum. The Baotai quotation was stable at 19,500 yuan, with weak demand. The scrap aluminum market had tight supply, and the industry had negative profits but some resilience [3] - The upward trend of alumina spot prices eased. The domestic operating capacity of alumina returned to a historical high, but the warehouse receipt inventory on the SHFE was only over 20,000 tons, and the futures were unlikely to fall deeply [3] Zinc - Both domestic and overseas markets saw inventory accumulation, and the demand side had continuous negative feedback. The zinc price was weak, and the weighted position of Shanghai zinc decreased to 231,600 lots, with a precipitation of 4.59 billion yuan in funds. The term structure flattened [4] - The expectation of increasing supply and weak demand remained unchanged. The key domestic meeting did not bring surprises, and the strategy of short - selling on rebounds was continued [4] Aluminum - Both domestic and overseas markets saw inventory accumulation. LME aluminum broke below the 2000 - dollar mark, dragging down the domestic market. Technically, there was still room for downward adjustment [6] - The aluminum price was weak, and downstream buyers were waiting and watching. The supply difference between northern and southern electrolytic lead smelters still existed, and recycled lead holders were reluctant to sell. The refined - scrap price difference remained flat [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded, and the market trading was active. The stainless steel market was in the traditional off - season, with weak spot trading mainly relying on low - price goods from traders [7] - The inventory of nickel iron increased to 37,000 tons, the inventory of refined nickel increased by 1000 tons to 39,000 tons, and the inventory of stainless steel increased by 12,000 tons to 991,000 tons. Technically, Shanghai nickel still had room to rebound, and traders were advised to wait for a better short - selling position [7] Tin - Shanghai tin fluctuated with a positive line. The spot tin price was reduced by 1000 yuan to 263,600 yuan, with a premium of 230 yuan over the 2508 contract [8] - Indonesia's refined tin exports in June decreased to 4465 tons month - on - month. The strategy of short - selling was continued [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate rebounded with active trading and high positions. The spot trading activity was low, and downstream buyers were not willing to stock up [9] - The total market inventory reached a recent high of 141,000 tons, and traders continued to replenish stocks by 2430 tons to 41,000 tons. The price of Australian ore was 678 dollars. Short positions could be gradually established [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures declined slightly. The spot price of Xinjiang 421 silicon was 8800 yuan/ton, remaining stable. The downstream polysilicon production in July increased month - on - month, and the operating rate of silicone monomer plants continued to rise [10] - The supply side had some constraints, and the fundamentals showed marginal improvement. The price was expected to be volatile and slightly bullish, and the change of warehouse receipts should be monitored [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures rebounded close to 43,000 yuan/ton. The spot price of N - type re -投料 was 45,500 yuan/ton, remaining stable. The downstream price increase began to transmit costs [11] - The current futures price was at a discount to the spot price, and the number of warehouse receipts remained stable. The short - term trend was expected to be volatile and slightly bullish, with policy expectations as the main trading logic [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for stock index futures is "oscillation" [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic data in June 2025 was mixed. Although the Q2 GDP growth exceeded expectations, the demand declined significantly in June, with negative month - on - month growth in social retail and fixed - asset investment. Constraints on China's economic rebound are accumulating, including declining resident income, deteriorating real estate, and deepening deflation. For the stock market, due to the negative beta truncation effect of the national team's entry into the market, funds continue to drive the stock index up. It is recommended to allocate each stock index evenly to cope with the rapidly rotating market [1][2][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 June Economic Data Analysis - **GDP situation**: The real GDP in Q2 increased by 5.2% year - on - year, exceeding market expectations. The Q2 GDP had a 1.1% quarter - on - quarter growth, better than last year. However, the nominal GDP growth rate in Q2 was only 3.94%, a 0.65% decline from Q1. Low prices are still eroding the real growth rate [8] - **Supply - demand situation**: On the supply side, the industrial added value and service production index in June maintained a growth rate of about 6%. On the demand side, the year - on - year growth rates of social retail and fixed - asset investment in June were 4.8% and - 0.1% respectively, lower than market expectations and showing a decline from the previous month. The month - on - month growth rates were negative, at a poor level compared to historical data. Consumption growth highly depends on subsidies, and the fiscal impulse from the early issuance of national debt is fading [12] - **Real estate situation**: In June, the real estate investment growth rate was - 12.9%. The new construction area and sales area and amount all showed negative growth, and housing prices were accelerating their decline. The total capital source of real estate enterprises was still in a low - level shock. The real estate market has been deteriorating since Q2, and policies are needed to stop the decline [20] - **Resident income situation**: In Q2, the growth rate of per - capita disposable income of residents was 5.08%, a 0.47% decline from Q1. Except for the increase in transfer net income, other income sources such as wage income and business net income declined. The pressure on domestic consumption will increase in the second half of the year [27] - **Industrial capacity utilization situation**: The industrial capacity utilization rate in Q2 was 74%, a 0.1% decline from Q1. The mining and public utility industries were the main drags, while the manufacturing industry increased slightly. Some industries such as electronic information manufacturing and electrical equipment manufacturing saw an increase in capacity utilization, which may be related to export and investment [31] 3.2 Investment Suggestions - Although theoretically a GDP growth rate of about 4.7% in the second half of the year can achieve the full - year target, there are accumulating unfavorable factors for the economic rebound. It is necessary to increase the subsidy for consumer goods replacement and the efforts to stabilize the real estate market. For the stock market, unless there is a major change in US tariffs on China or a rapid decline in China's economic growth in Q3, the market may still ignore the fundamentals and remain in a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to evenly allocate each stock index to cope with the rapidly rotating market [2][35]

光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 07 月 16 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 昨日，A 股市场震荡收跌，Wind 全 A 下跌 0.2%，成交额 1.64 万亿元。中 | | | | 1000 0.3%，中证 500 0.03%，沪深 300 证 指数下跌 指数下跌 指数上涨 | | | | 0.03%，上证 50 指数下跌 0.38%。通信板块领涨，多数板块回调，板块轮动 | | | | 继续。6 月经济和金融数据发布，二季度我国 GDP 同比 5.2%，6 月社零同 | | | | 比 4.8%，规模以上工业增加值同比 6.8%，固定资产投资累计同比 2.8%， | | | | 房地产开发投资累计同比-11.2%，需求扰动仍在，投资继续回落；金融数据 | | | | 方面，M1 同比 4.6%，表现亮眼，企业短期贷款同比多增明显。近期中央财 | | | | 经委召开第六次会议，强调："纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，基本要求是"五 | | | 股指 | 统一、一开放"。市场对于反内卷背景下企业盈利回升和通胀企稳的 ...

每日报告 021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 铁矿石日评 日期 2025 年 7 月 16 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 现货市场：7 月 15 日，主要铁矿石外盘报价环比前一交易日持平，青岛港主 要品位铁矿石价格较前一交易日持平。 技术面：铁矿石 2509 合约日线 KDJ 指标走势分化，K 值、J 值调头回落，D 值继续上行；铁矿石 2509 日线 MACD 指标红柱转为收窄。 1.2 后市展望： 外围市场方面，美方表示将于中国会面，贸易风险有所缓和；国内方面，中 央财经委员会第六次会议提出推动落后产能有序退出，随后多家券商发布"反内 卷"相关研报，前期供应过剩的品种迎 ...

研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 报告类型 股指日评 日期 2025 年 7 月 16 日 一、行情回顾与后市展望 1.1 行情回顾： 7 月 15 日，万得全 A 开盘后震荡回落，午后再度回升，收跌 0.20%，超 4000 支个股下跌；指数现货方面，沪深 300 指数收盘上涨 0.03%,上证 50、中证 500、 中证 1000 收盘分别下跌 0.38%、0.03%、0.30%。指数期货表现弱于现货，IF、IH、 IC、IM 主力合约分别收跌 0.13%、0.48%、0.07%、0.39%（按前一交易日收盘价为 基准计算）。 | 表1:股 ...

Economic Overview - The GDP for the first half of the year reached 66,053.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3% at constant prices [1][2] - The current economic situation shows a continuous improvement, with significant enhancements in economic strength, technological capability, and comprehensive national power [2][3] Key Economic Development Goals - The main expected target for GDP growth this year is around 5%, with four key areas of focus for achieving this goal: enhancing macro policy counter-cyclical adjustments, expanding domestic demand comprehensively, implementing further reforms, and increasing high-level opening-up [3][5] Industrial Performance - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises increased by 6.4% year-on-year, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing growing by 10.2% and 9.5% respectively, outpacing the overall industrial growth [6][7] - The industrial structure is continuously optimizing, with a steady push towards green transformation and high-quality development [6][7] Challenges and Solutions in Industrial Development - The industrial economy faces challenges such as external uncertainties and the need for better balance between supply and demand [7][8] - Solutions include enhancing effective investment, improving investment efficiency, and fostering orderly development of traditional, emerging, and future industries [7][8] New Industrialization Strategy - The focus of new industrialization remains on strengthening the real economy, with an emphasis on systematic approaches to build a modern industrial system [8][9] - The interaction between industry and technology is crucial, with opportunities arising from the new technological revolution and industrial transformation [8][9] Addressing "Involution" in Competition - The phenomenon of "involution" in competition reflects a dynamic process of supply and demand in emerging industries, necessitating specific analysis rather than a one-size-fits-all approach [9][10] - A comprehensive approach to address "involution" should include optimizing industrial structure, promoting fair competition, and ensuring effective market resource allocation [10][11]

Economic Performance - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, exceeding market expectations, while CPI decreased by 0.1% [1] - The resilience of the Chinese economy is attributed to both macro and micro policies, as well as the inherent strength and growth momentum of the economy [1] Private Sector Dynamics - The vitality of the private economy is crucial for economic recovery, with recent policy relaxations indicating a shift towards less regulatory burden [2] - Examples of policy easing include the removal of approval requirements for large public events and simplified approval processes for commercial performances [2] Market Environment - The establishment of a unified national market and a legal business environment is essential for fostering economic growth [3] - Current macroeconomic indicators show a need for balance between stimulating growth and avoiding detrimental interventions [3] Recommendations for Economic Support - A proposal suggests allocating part of the special long-term bonds to social welfare to enhance residents' disposable income, which could stimulate market consumption [4] - The focus should be on creating a conducive environment for private sector growth through reduced regulatory constraints and lower taxes [4]

Group 1 - The A-share market showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.42% and the ChiNext Index rising by 1.73% on July 15 [1] - The Shanghai Composite ETF (510980) experienced a decline of 0.66%, marking a rare pullback after several days of gains [1] - The tracking error of the Shanghai Composite ETF (510980) over the past year was only 0.1%, indicating a strong performance relative to its benchmark [1] Group 2 - The core driving force behind the recent market strength is attributed to the collective performance of large-cap blue-chip stocks, particularly in the financial sector [2] - The real estate and photovoltaic sectors, which had been underperforming, have recently shown significant gains, suggesting a healthier market condition [2] - Policy expectations are rising, with recent developments in Hong Kong regarding virtual asset trading licenses and easing restrictions on tokenized custody and cross-border payments [3] Group 3 - The market's trading volume has shown marginal improvement, with a weekly turnover of 74,808 billion yuan, indicating a gradual recovery in trading activity [3] - For the upcoming months, July is viewed as a favorable window for investment, while August and September may present higher risks [4] - Recommended sectors for investment include electronics, power equipment, defense, computing, and non-bank financials, with a particular focus on TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the resilience of China's economy in the first half of 2023, highlighting a GDP growth of 5.3% year-on-year, and the importance of balancing growth and transformation in future policies [1][2]. Economic Trends - The article identifies three key trends: 1. Long-term resilience in exports 2. Strong performance in the cultural and tourism consumption market 3. Accelerated growth in high-tech manufacturing, with its value-added growth outpacing that of all industrial sectors [2]. - The economic situation is summarized with four words: stable, real, new, and optimized, indicating a solid foundation for achieving annual economic and social development goals [2]. Policy Recommendations - There is a call to strengthen macroeconomic policies with a focus on people's livelihoods, emphasizing the need for effective interaction between investment and consumption [3][4]. - The article stresses the importance of expanding domestic demand and stabilizing growth, with a focus on improving consumption and addressing structural changes in the market [4]. Competition Issues - The article discusses the phenomenon of "involution" in competition, indicating that there are no beneficiaries in such a competitive environment, leading to a win-lose or lose-lose situation [5][6]. - It highlights the need for regulatory measures to address low-price and disorderly competition, promoting product quality and the orderly exit of outdated capacities [5][6]. Fair Competition - The distinction between fair competition and "involution" is crucial, as fair competition allows for dynamic equilibrium through price signals, while "involution" distorts these signals [6][7]. - The article advocates for the implementation of fair competition review regulations to ensure that industrial policies and competition policies work in tandem, allowing market forces to dictate production and operational behaviors [7][8]. Investment Strategies - The article suggests that attracting investment should focus on a chain-oriented approach, avoiding excessive competition for existing resources, and tailoring strategies to local advantages [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ [1] - Alumina: ☆☆☆ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★☆☆ [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ [1] - Lead: ★☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The copper market is likely to turn into a volatile downward trend, and short positions should be held or option strategies can be attempted [1] - The Shanghai aluminum futures have short - term correction pressure, while the cast aluminum alloy has certain resilience, and the upward space of alumina is limited [2] - The zinc market shows a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, and the idea of short - selling on rebounds should be continued [3] - The lead price continues the low - level consolidation trend, and there is a possibility of further decline if overseas low - price lead is imported [5] - The nickel market has room for rebound, waiting for a better short - selling position [6] - The tin market should continue the short - selling direction [7] - The lithium carbonate market is in the area for short - position layout [8] - The industrial silicon market is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend [9] - The polysilicon market is expected to be volatile and upward in the short term [10] Summary by Metals Copper - The Shanghai copper oscillated at 78,000 yuan on Tuesday. The spot copper price was 77,995 yuan, and the refined - scrap spread narrowed to 540 yuan. The copper market is likely to turn into a volatile downward trend [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - The Shanghai aluminum futures had short - term correction pressure after breaking the upward trend line. The cast aluminum alloy had certain resilience. The upward space of alumina was limited due to over - capacity [2] Zinc - The inventories of both domestic and foreign zinc markets increased, and the supply - demand fundamentals were weak. The short - selling on rebounds strategy should be continued [3] Lead - The LME lead inventory increased significantly, dragging down the Shanghai lead price. The Shanghai lead was relatively resistant to decline, but there was a risk of further decline if overseas low - price lead was imported [5] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The Shanghai nickel price dropped sharply, and there was room for rebound. The stainless steel market was in the off - season, and the inventory was at a high level [6] Tin - The Shanghai tin price opened a decline and was supported at 262,000 yuan. The short - selling direction should be continued [7] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market oscillated and rebounded, but the inventory continued to rise. The short - position layout area had arrived [8] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures rose significantly, and the fundamentals improved marginally. It was expected to maintain a volatile upward trend [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures continued to rebound, and the short - term trend was expected to be volatile and upward, with policy expectations as the main trading logic [10]