Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report Copper - Copper pricing will return to macro trading. Without a clear recession expectation in the US, medium - and long - term supply - demand contradictions provide bottom support. In the short term, copper prices will fluctuate strongly under a loose background. The main contract is expected to range between 80,000 - 82,000 [1] Aluminum - For alumina, in the short term, the main contract will fluctuate between 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton. In the medium term, if cost support weakens and demand does not improve significantly, prices may decline. For aluminum, in the short term, prices will maintain a strong - side fluctuation, with the main contract ranging from 20,600 - 21,400 yuan/ton. If demand improvement fails to meet expectations, prices may fall [3] Aluminum Alloy - As the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season approaches, spot prices are expected to remain firm, the inventory accumulation rate will slow down, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to narrow further. The short - term main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [4] Zinc - Due to the expected supply surplus, the upside space for Shanghai zinc is limited. In the short term, prices may rise driven by the macro environment, but the fundamental support for continuous upward movement is insufficient. The price is expected to fluctuate, with the main contract ranging from 21,800 - 22,800 [7] Tin - Supply remains tight, and with the strengthening of the US interest - rate cut expectation, tin prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level. The operating range is expected to be between 265,000 - 285,000 [9] Nickel - Macro sentiment is strengthening, costs are supported, and there are no obvious short - term supply - demand contradictions, but the inventory reduction pace has slowed down. In the medium term, the supply surplus will limit the upside space. The main contract is expected to fluctuate in a strong - side range of 120,000 - 125,000 [11] Stainless Steel - The macro environment is improving, raw material prices are firm, and inventory pressure is easing. However, the peak - season demand has not been significantly released. In the short term, the price will fluctuate within a range, with the main contract operating between 12,800 - 13,400 [13] Lithium Carbonate - Affected by positive policy information, the market sentiment is strong. The supply - demand relationship is in a tight balance. In the short term, the main contract is expected to fluctuate strongly, with the price center ranging from 70,000 - 75,000 [14] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.22% to 81,120 yuan/ton; SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 75 yuan/ton. Other copper - related prices and premiums also showed different changes [1] Fundamental Data - In August, electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%. In July, electrolytic copper imports were 29.69 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20% [1] Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price remained unchanged at 20,950 yuan/ton; alumina prices in different regions decreased slightly [3] Fundamental Data - In August, alumina production was 773.82 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.15%. Electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.30% [3] Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices in different regions remained unchanged. The price difference between refined and scrap aluminum in different regions increased [4] Fundamental Data - In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.60%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 27.10 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.88% [4] Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price remained unchanged at 22,230 yuan/ton. The import loss was 3,294 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.09 yuan/ton [7] Fundamental Data - In August, refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.88%. In July, refined zinc imports were 1.79 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50.35% [7] Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price decreased by 0.33% to 272,400 yuan/ton; LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 277.36% to - 132.00 US dollars/ton [9] Fundamental Data - In July, tin ore imports were 10,278 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.71%. SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.42% [9] Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.49% to 123,600 yuan/ton; the import loss decreased by 18.32% to 1,507 yuan/ton [11] Supply - Demand and Inventory - In August, China's refined nickel production was 32,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.26%. Refined nickel imports were 17,536 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.46% [11] Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.38% to 13,200 yuan/ton; the futures - spot price difference increased by 14.29% to 400 yuan/ton [13] Fundamental Data - In August, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production (43 companies) was 171.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. Stainless - steel imports were 7.30 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.30% [13] Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 0.55% to 72,850 yuan/ton; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 0.57% to 70,600 yuan/ton [14] Fundamental Data - In August, lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.55%. Lithium carbonate demand was 104,023 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.25% [14]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: September 17, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Performance: Carbonate lithium futures rose and then fell. The market continued to trade on the anti-involution signal released by the article "Deeply Promote the Construction of a National Unified Market" in Qiushi, but the upward momentum was limited without specific policies. The total open interest decreased while the total trading volume increased slightly, indicating an increasing willingness of funds to leave the market [11]. - Spot Price: The spot price of electric carbon increased by 400 to 72,850. The premium of the futures price over the spot price widened. As the Double Festival approaches, downstream buyers have a demand for stocking up at low prices, which supports the spot price of carbonate lithium [11]. - Raw Material Price: The price of Australian ore increased by 10 to $820 per ton, and the price of lithium mica increased by 40 to 1,815 yuan per ton. The production loss of salt plants using purchased lithium spodumene narrowed to 3,280 yuan per ton, while the production loss of salt plants using purchased lithium mica widened to 7,539 yuan per ton [11]. - Supply and Demand: Although salt plants are currently operating at a loss, it does not affect their production enthusiasm. The weekly production of carbonate lithium last week was close to the historical high, and the supply pressure remains. The demand is in the peak season. The short-term focus is on the mineral type change of the mines in production in Yichun by the end of the month and the resumption progress of the Jianxiaowo Mine. Before the variables at the mine end are settled, the market sentiment is still difficult to make a clear directional choice [11]. Group 3: Industry News - Production Capacity Upgrade: On September 16, Salt Lake Co., Ltd. (000792.SZ) stated on the investor interaction platform that the original annual production capacity of 30,000 tons of carbonate lithium in Lanke Lithium Industry has been increased to 40,000 tons after technological upgrading. The company will continue to benchmark against the industry's advanced level to further improve resource extraction and utilization efficiency and promote high-quality industrial development [12]. - Battery Technology: Fuan Technology stated on the interaction platform that its third-generation semi-solid-state battery introduces solid electrolytes into the positive and negative electrodes and uses in-situ solidification technology to further reduce the electrolyte content in the battery cells. It is planned to be mass-produced in 2026. The energy density of the current soft-pack battery cells has reached 400Wh/kg. The reduction of electrolyte and the introduction of solid oxide electrolytes are beneficial to improving the safety of the battery cells. The compatibility of solid electrolytes with high-energy-density active materials helps to ultimately achieve a high-safety all-solid-state battery with an energy density of over 500Wh/kg [12].

Core Viewpoint - The articles emphasize the need to rectify local investment attraction irregularities and establish a unified national market, highlighting the importance of transparency and standardized practices in investment attraction [2][3][4]. Summary by Sections Local Investment Attraction - The focus is on addressing irregularities in local investment attraction, including the need for a national behavior checklist that specifies encouraged and prohibited actions [3][4]. - There is a call for stricter enforcement of regulations to prevent local governments from offering illegal tax, land, and electricity incentives, which contribute to unhealthy competition [3][4]. Market System and Competition - The current market system in China is described as underdeveloped, with issues such as distorted market mechanisms and disrupted competition still prevalent [2][3]. - The articles highlight the need for a correct performance view among local governments, discouraging short-termism and local protectionism [3][4]. Regulatory Framework - The implementation of the Fair Competition Review Regulation (Order No. 783) aims to standardize local investment practices and prevent preferential treatment without legal basis [4][5]. - The introduction of the "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the High-Quality Development of Government Investment Funds" emphasizes that government investment funds should not be established solely for investment attraction purposes [5][6]. Investment Fund Trends - The shift from tax and subsidy-based investment attraction to a "fund investment" model is noted, with local governments increasingly establishing specialized investment funds [4][5]. - The articles discuss the rise of "merger and acquisition investment" as a new strategy for local governments to attract investment, focusing on acquiring listed companies in line with local industrial needs [9]. Innovative Support Mechanisms - The "pre-investment and post-equity" model is introduced as a new fiscal support mechanism, allowing government funds to support R&D and later convert to equity based on pre-agreed conditions [10]. - This model aims to enhance the efficiency of fiscal fund usage and provide tailored support for startups, reflecting a shift towards more sustainable and patient capital [10].

Report Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Expected to fluctuate widely with repeated expectations [2][4] - Rebar: Expected to oscillate strongly due to the resurgence of anti - involution sentiment [2][7] - Hot - rolled coil: Expected to oscillate strongly due to the resurgence of anti - involution sentiment [2][8] - Ferrosilicon: Expected to oscillate strongly boosted by macro - sentiment [2][13] - Silicomanganese: Expected to oscillate strongly boosted by macro - sentiment [2][13] - Coke: Expected to fluctuate widely with repeated expectations [2][16] - Coking coal: Expected to fluctuate widely with repeated expectations [2][17] - Logs: Expected to oscillate repeatedly [2][19] Core Views - The prices of various black - series commodities in the futures market are affected by factors such as fundamentals, macro - economic data, and industry news, showing different trends of wide - range fluctuations, strong oscillations, or repeated oscillations [2] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's futures closing price was 803.5 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan or 0.94%. The I2601 contract had a position of 532,373 lots, a decrease of 3,458 lots. Spot prices of imported and some domestic ores increased. The basis and spreads showed certain changes [4] - **News**: On August 31st, M2 balance was 331.98 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.8%; M1 balance was 111.23 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6% [4] - **Trend Strength**: - 1 [4] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's closing prices of RB2510 and HC2510 were 3,069 yuan/ton and 3,433 yuan/ton, up 1.05% and 1.18% respectively. Trading volumes, positions, and position changes were given. Spot prices in various regions increased to different extents. Basis and spreads also changed [8] - **News**: From January to August 2025, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.2% year - on - year; fixed - asset investment increased by 0.5%; retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.6%. In August, China's crude steel production was 7737000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%. Other production, inventory, and trade data were also provided [9][11] - **Trend Strength**: 1 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [12] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices, trading volumes, and positions of different contracts were given. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese increased, and the prices of related raw materials also changed. Basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads showed different trends [13] - **News**: On September 16th, the prices of different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in various regions were reported. A steel mill in Shandong finalized the purchase price of 75B ferrosilicon. South Korea's manganese ore imports in August decreased significantly [13][14] - **Trend Strength**: 1 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [15] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of JM2601 and J2601 increased. Spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions changed. Basis and spreads also showed certain changes [17] - **News**: An important article by Xi Jinping will be published in the 18th issue of Qiushi magazine on September 16th [17] - **Trend Strength**: 0 for both coke and coking coal [17] Logs - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different contracts showed different trends of increase, decrease, or stability. Spot prices of different types of logs in various regions were mostly stable, with only a few showing slight increases [20] - **News**: On August 31st, M2 balance was 331.98 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.8%; M1 balance was 111.23 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6% [22] - **Trend Strength**: 0 [22]

Group 1 - The report highlights that Jia Yuan Technology is expected to benefit from the expansion of cloud infrastructure, with continuous improvement in its main business [3][4] - In August, coal supply continued to contract while thermal power demand still grew year-on-year, with a significant increase in coal prices month-on-month [2][6] - The report emphasizes the acceleration of supply-side reforms in the new energy sector as part of the national unified market construction [2][18] Group 2 - Jia Yuan Technology plans to invest 500 million RMB in Wuhan Endatong, acquiring a 13.6% stake, which will allow it to enter the optical module field [4] - The company achieved a copper foil production of approximately 41,400 tons in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 72.46%, and a sales volume of 40,700 tons, up 63.01% year-on-year [4] - The report forecasts that Jia Yuan Technology will achieve revenues of 10.1 billion, 13 billion, and 15.4 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 100 million, 200 million, and 400 million RMB [5] Group 3 - In August, the production of raw coal decreased by 3.2% year-on-year, with a daily average production of 12.6 million tons, which is a month-on-month increase of 307,000 tons [6][8] - The report indicates that the thermal power generation in August increased by 1.7% year-on-year, although the growth rate slowed compared to July [10][11] - The coal imports in August decreased by 6.77% year-on-year, with a total of 42.73 million tons imported [9][15] Group 4 - The report notes that the overall coal supply continued to contract, while demand from thermal power, metallurgy, and chemical industries showed positive growth [15][16] - The report suggests that the coal price in August increased by 51.37 RMB/ton, reflecting a month-on-month rise of 8.05% [15] - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining orderly competition in the new energy sector, which is expected to improve the profitability of the industry [19][20]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of advancing the construction of a unified national market in China, as articulated by General Secretary Xi Jinping [4][5]. - China is committed to high-level opening up and high-quality development, which will provide new opportunities for international cooperation [5][6]. - There is a continuous push across various regions in China to create a broader, deeper, and more comprehensive framework for opening up, thereby expanding new spaces for economic development [5][6]. Group 2 - The article highlights the achievements in agricultural and rural development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, indicating a stable and positive trend [9]. - The construction of a new energy system in Jilin province is accelerating, contributing to high-quality economic development [10]. - Heilongjiang province is enhancing its agricultural productivity, with a mechanization rate exceeding 99% and a record grain output of over 1,600 billion jin [11].

Group 1 - The State Council has approved a pilot program for the market-oriented allocation of factors in ten regions, including Beijing's sub-center and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, to enhance economic vitality and consumption [1] - The pilot areas are characterized by strong economic foundations and growth potential, covering key urban clusters and metropolitan areas in China [1] - The overall structure of the pilot program is consistent but tailored to local conditions, focusing on stimulating innovation in technology, efficient land allocation, and enhancing the flow of human resources and capital [1][2] Group 2 - The pilot program aims to deepen reforms in land management, granting greater autonomy to pilot regions in managing land resources and matching new construction land with population trends [2] - It includes innovative land supply mechanisms such as long-term leasing and flexible supply periods, as well as revitalizing underutilized land [2] - A unified regulatory framework is essential for a high-level socialist market economy, which will enhance market efficiency and ensure fair competition [3] Group 3 - The construction of a unified national market requires the implementation of "Five Unifications and One Openness," which includes standardizing market systems and infrastructure, and ensuring consistent government actions [4] - The initiative emphasizes the importance of resource allocation and reducing waste through the free flow of factors [4] - Expanding both domestic and international openness is crucial for building a unified national market and gaining a competitive edge in the global economy [4]

Core Viewpoint - The State Council has approved a pilot program for market-oriented allocation of factors in ten regions, aiming to enhance economic vitality and resource efficiency in key urban areas [1] Group 1: Pilot Program Overview - The pilot program will be implemented in ten regions, including Beijing's sub-center, key cities in southern Jiangsu, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, among others [1] - These regions are characterized by strong economic growth, vibrant consumption, and favorable environments for development [1] Group 2: Key Focus Areas - The pilot will focus on stimulating innovation in technological factors, promoting efficient land allocation, guiding the flow of human resources, and developing a data factor market [2] - It aims to enhance the service capacity of capital factors for the real economy and improve the institutional framework for resource and environmental markets [2] Group 3: Regulatory Framework - The program emphasizes the need for continuous reform in land management and the establishment of a unified regulatory system to ensure efficient factor flow and fair competition [2][3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will develop a unified technical market rule system to strengthen market access, competition, and intellectual property protection [2] Group 4: National Market Construction - The construction of a unified national market is essential for high-quality development and gaining competitive advantages in international trade [4] - The "Five Unifications and One Openness" principle is highlighted as a fundamental requirement for advancing the national market, focusing on unified market systems and infrastructure [3][4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper rose and then pulled back, with a decrease in open interest, a premium in the spot market, and a strengthening basis. The copper price is supported by the cost as the TC spot index of copper ore is in the negative range and the concentrate price remains firm. Supply of scrap copper and copper concentrate is tight, restricting smelter capacity, and combined with macro - factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut, the copper price is in a high - level range. The strong copper price suppresses downstream purchasing sentiment, resulting in a light trading volume in the spot market. The peak season has not yet boosted demand, and consumption recovery is slow. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.37, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.0148, indicating a bullish sentiment, and the implied volatility slightly decreased. Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD, the two lines are above the 0 - axis and the green bars are expanding. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillatory trading, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 80,880 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 10,119.50 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 67 US dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract was - 20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 165,216 lots, a decrease of 14,040 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 7,538 lots, a decrease of 1,884 lots. The LME copper inventory was 152,625 tons, a decrease of 1,325 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 94,054 tons, an increase of 12,203 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants were 17,175 tons, a decrease of 3,550 tons. The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 33,692 tons, a decrease of 2,856 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 81,120 yuan/ton, an increase of 180 yuan; the price of 1 copper spot in the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Metals Market was 81,235 yuan/ton, an increase of 240 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 59 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 53.50 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract was 240 yuan/ton, an increase of 240 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread was - 61.93 US dollars/ton, an increase of 11.49 US dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 256.01 million tons, an increase of 21.05 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters was - 41.30 US dollars/thousand tons, a decrease of 0.45 US dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi was 71,280 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan was 71,980 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 10 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the South was 700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of blister copper in the North was 700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The output of refined copper was 127 million tons, a decrease of 3.20 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 425,000 tons, a decrease of 55,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons, an increase of 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai was 56,170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 68,650 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 590 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 216.94 million tons, a decrease of 4.51 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 331.497 billion yuan, an increase of 40.431 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 60,309 billion yuan, an increase of 6,729.23 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,250 million pieces, a decrease of 439,220.70 pieces [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 8.31%, unchanged; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 7.73%, an increase of 0.01%. The implied volatility of at - the - money options in the current month was 13.92%, a decrease of 0.0177. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 1.37, a decrease of 0.0148 [2]. Industry News - The article "Deeply Promote the Construction of a Unified National Market" by General Secretary Xi Jinping was published in Qiushi. The government is determined to remove stubborn problems, rectify the chaos of low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises, government procurement and tendering, and local investment promotion; promote the integrated development of domestic and foreign trade and improve the legal system. From January to August, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.2% year - on - year; the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 32,611.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%, among which private investment decreased by 2.3% year - on - year. In August, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.3%; the total retail sales of consumer goods were 396.68 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. In August, the sales price of new commercial residential buildings in first - tier cities decreased by 0.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points month - on - month. Among them, Shanghai increased by 5.9%, while Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen decreased by 3.5%, 4.3%, and 1.7% respectively. The sales prices of new commercial residential buildings in second - and third - tier cities decreased by 2.4% and 3.7% year - on - year respectively, with the declines narrowing by 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points respectively. From January to August, the national real estate development investment was 60,309 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9%; among which, residential investment was 46,382 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.9%. The sales area of new commercial housing was 573.04 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%; among which, the sales area of residential housing decreased by 4.7%. The sales volume of new commercial housing was 55,015 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.3%; among which, the sales volume of residential housing decreased by 7.0%. Wall Street top strategists said that after the Fed cut interest rates this week, the record - breaking rally in the US stock market may lose momentum temporarily. Strategists from Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, and Oppenheimer Asset Management warned that a more cautious tone may replace the bullish sentiment as investors turn their attention to the potential economic slowdown [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The overall supply - demand situation of the polysilicon market shows an increase in supply and a decrease in demand. The photovoltaic industry chain has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with high terminal transaction pressure. The price of polysilicon is expected to weaken, and it is likely to maintain a volatile trend. The operation suggestion is to wait and see or arrange put options [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 53,670 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan; the main position is 127,779 lots, down 4,433 lots; the 11 - 12 spread of polysilicon is - 2,525 yuan, up 45 yuan; the spread between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 44,755 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [3]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of polysilicon is 51,550 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of polysilicon is - 1,995 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.45 US dollars/kg, up 0.25 US dollars [3]. - **Upstream Situation**: The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 8,915 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan; the spot price of industrial silicon is 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly output of industrial silicon is 366,800 tons, up 33,600 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The monthly output of polysilicon is 125,000 tons, up 20,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 1,170 tons, up 57 tons; the weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China is 6.9 US dollars/kg, up 0.14 US dollars [3]. - **Downstream Situation**: The monthly output of solar cells is 66,382,000 kilowatts, down 1,004,000 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB; the monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 110,432,680 pieces, up 21,456,820 pieces; the monthly import volume of photovoltaic modules is 14,525,650 pieces, up 3,429,750 pieces; the monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.29 US dollars/piece, down 0.02 US dollars [3]. b) Industry News The CSI Photovoltaic Industry Index tracked by the Photovoltaic Leading ETF (159609) rose 1.62%. Among the heavy - weight stocks, Arctech Solar rose 5.5%, Ginlong Technologies rose 3.8%, Deye Inverter rose 3.6%, Junda Co., Ltd. rose 3.3%, Shangneng Electric rose 3.1%, Sungrow Power Supply rose 7.3%, LONGi Green Energy rose 1.0%, TBEA Co., Ltd. rose 0.3%, and Tongwei Co., Ltd. rose 0.8%. The macro - level emphasizes rectifying the chaos of low - price and disorderly competition in enterprises. For polysilicon, the inventory is rising, but the increase is expected to be limited due to the anti - involution in the industry [3]. c) Key Points to Watch There is no news today [3].