2026年02月04日 申万期货品种策略日报-铂、钯 | | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | 陈梦赟（从业资格号：F03147376；交易咨询号：Z0022753） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | sunxm@sywgqh.com.cn | | 021-50585921 | | | | | | pt2606 | pt2608 | pt2610 | pd2606 | pd2608 | pd2610 | | | 现价 | 572.95 | 563.10 | 557.85 | 450.55 | 444.50 | 432.25 | | 期 | 前收盘价 | 552.15 | 545.35 | 548.20 | 413.70 | 410.60 | 407.05 | | 货 | 涨跌 | 19.60 | 16.05 | 9.45 | 35.75 | 31.85 | 24.15 | | 市 场 | 涨跌幅 | 3.54% | 2.93% | 1.72% | 8.62% | 7.72% | 5.92% | | | 持仓量 | ...

持续突破历史新高纪录后，国际金价近期走出"过山车"行情。 1月31日，现货黄金盘中大跌超12%，创40年来最大单日跌幅，最低触及4682美元/盎司；2月2日市场延续下跌趋势，最低触及4402美元/盎司，年内涨幅从 30%骤降至4%，前期涨势近乎抹平；而时至今日，国际金价在经历连续巨震后，上演深V反弹，重新站上5000美元/盎司关口，震荡行情加剧。 这场惊心动魄的行情，让此前持续加速上涨的贵金属市场瞬间降温，更让全球投资者陷入对"避险资产神话"的重新审视。当避险资产成为风险来源，投资者 还能持有黄金吗？黄金的上涨趋势是否还能延续？ 巨震溯源 1、导火索：沃什获提名，鹰派预期升温 黄金本轮暴跌的直接触发因素是特朗普提名凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）为下任美联储主席。 从凯文·沃什的主张来看，其过往以坚定的通胀鹰派著称，曾公开反对量化宽松并主张快速缩表，被视为美联储独立性的捍卫者；但近年来其立场转向务 实，公开支持降息，称不降息才是对美联储信誉的最大威胁，这一调整与特朗普希望更快降息的诉求形成表面契合，形成鹰派框架结合鸽派信号的独特组 合。即便如此，市场仍聚焦于其鹰派历史立场，担忧其上台后将推动"降息+缩表" ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The yield of treasury bonds is at a relatively low level, and the stock index is expected to gradually move up. The precious metals market may have significant fluctuations. The prices of steel products, iron ore, and other commodities have different trends, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed for each commodity [6][9][11]. 3. Summary by Directory Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed higher, with the 30 - year main contract down 0.10% at 111.960 yuan, the 10 - year main contract up 0.02% at 108.260 yuan, the 5 - year main contract up 0.06% at 105.905 yuan, and the 2 - year main contract up 0.03% at 102.414 yuan. The central bank conducted 105.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, and the net withdrawal was 296.5 billion yuan. It is expected that treasury bond futures still face certain pressure, and caution is advised [5][6]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The main contract of CSI 300 stock index futures (IF) rose 1.28%, the main contract of SSE 50 stock index futures (IH) rose 0.91%, the main contract of CSI 500 stock index futures (IC) rose 3.82%, and the main contract of CSI 1000 stock index futures (IM) rose 2.87%. In January 2026, 4.9158 million new A - share accounts were opened, with a month - on - month increase of 89% and a year - on - year increase of 213%. It is expected that the volatility center of the stock index will gradually move up, and previous long positions can be held [8][9]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, the closing price of the gold main contract was 1,093.78, with a gain of 8.45%; the closing price of the silver main contract was 21,446, with a gain of - 13.64%. The global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, the recent sharp rise in precious metals has led to a significant increase in speculative sentiment. It is expected that market volatility will significantly increase, and long positions can be liquidated and wait and see [11]. Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures continued to correct. In the medium term, the price of finished products is dominated by the industrial supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is in a year - on - year decline, and the market will enter the off - season. The supply pressure increases, and the inventory is higher than that of the same period last year. It is expected that the rebar price may continue the weak shock. The hot - rolled coil may have a similar trend. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips and manage positions carefully [13]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fell slightly. The national hot metal daily output is below 2.3 million tons, and the demand for iron ore is at a low level. The import volume of iron ore increased by 1.8% year - on - year in 2025, and the domestic raw ore output is lower than that of the same period in 2024. The port inventory is rising, and the supply - demand pattern is weak. It is expected that the iron ore futures may continue the shock pattern in the short term. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips and manage positions carefully [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell slightly. The production of domestic coking coal is stable, but the supply will decrease during the Spring Festival. The demand from downstream coking enterprises is weak. It is expected that the coking coal and coke futures may continue the shock pattern in the medium term. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low levels and manage positions carefully [17][18]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, the manganese - silicon main contract fell 0.51% to 5,836 yuan/ton, and the silicon - iron main contract fell 0.71% to 5,620 yuan/ton. The supply of manganese ore is gradually recovering, and the cost of ferroalloys fluctuates in a narrow range at a low level. The production of ferroalloys is at a low level, and the demand is weak. After a decline, investors can consider long positions in the low - level range [20]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil opened lower and fluctuated slightly, breaking below the 10 - day moving average. Speculators increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options. The number of active oil and gas rigs in the US increased. OPEC+ may maintain the decision to suspend production increase in March. It is expected that after a correction, crude oil is expected to regain strength. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the main contract [21][22]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil opened lower and fluctuated, closing near the 10 - day moving average. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore is limited, and the inventory has decreased. The cost - end crude oil correction has led to a correction in fuel oil prices. After the correction, there is still room for fuel oil prices to rise. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the main contract [24][25]. Polyolefins - On the previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou saw some price drops, and the LLDPE price in Yuyao fell. As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand for polyolefin products weakens, and the industry's operating rate may continue to decline. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of going long [27]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose 0.96%. The price of raw materials has increased, the supply has slightly shrunk, the demand has improved year - on - year, and the inventory has increased. It is expected to show a strong shock [29][30]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, the main contract of natural rubber rose 0.25%, and the 20 - number rubber main contract rose 0.54%. The global supply of natural rubber is seasonally shrinking, the demand from tire enterprises is mixed, and the inventory has slightly decreased. It is expected to show a strong operation in the short term [32]. PVC - On the previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose 0.30%. The price is supported by export orders and cost, but the contradiction between high inventory and weak demand remains. The industry's operating rate is stable, and the demand is weak. It is expected to show a strong shock [34][35]. Urea - On the previous trading day, the urea main contract fell 1.06%. The short - term urea price will maintain a strong shock, mainly driven by export demand and cost support. The industry's operating rate has increased, the demand is good, and the profit has increased. The inventory is higher than expected [38]. PX - On the previous trading day, the PX2603 main contract fell significantly by 1.37%. The PXN spread and short - process profit have been slightly compressed, the PX operating rate has slightly increased, and the cost support has weakened. It is expected to be mainly in a shock adjustment, and investors should participate cautiously [40][41]. PTA - On the previous trading day, the PTA2605 main contract fell 1.08%. The PTA processing fee has risen to the average level of previous years, the supply has changed little, the demand has decreased seasonally, and the cost support has slightly weakened. It is expected to be in a shock operation, and investors should operate cautiously [42]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract fell 1.98%. The domestic operating rate has increased, the port inventory has continued to accumulate, the cost has weakened, and the downstream polyester has entered the seasonal maintenance period. It is expected to maintain a shock bottom - building pattern, and investors should operate cautiously [43][44]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2603 main contract fell 1.31%. As the Spring Festival approaches, the supply of short - fiber has shrunk, and the terminal factories are mainly digesting raw material inventories. It is expected to follow the cost - end logic, and investors should wait and see cautiously [45]. Bottle Chips - On the previous trading day, the bottle - chip 2603 main contract fell 1%. The bottle - chip processing fee has risen to around 560 yuan/ton. The supply is expected to shrink, the export growth rate has increased, and it is expected to follow the cost - end operation. Investors should participate cautiously before the Spring Festival [46][47]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 1,201 yuan/ton, down 1.15%. The fundamentals are still loose, the production has increased, the inventory has slightly increased, and the downstream demand is weak. It is expected to be in a light and stable arrangement before the Spring Festival, and investors should be cautious [48]. Glass - On the previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 1,072 yuan/ton, up 0.28%. The fundamentals are still in a loose pattern, the inventory in the factory has improved slightly, and the inventory of traders has increased. It is expected to be in a shock before the Spring Festival [50][52]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, the main 2603 contract closed at 1,969 yuan/ton, down 2.19%. The supply is at a high level, the inventory is increasing, the price is weak, and the demand is weak. It is expected to maintain a high - supply pattern [53]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 5,276 yuan/ton, down 0.45%. The inventory has continued to accumulate, the downstream demand is limited, and some holders are selling at a discount to raise funds. It is expected that the pre - festival market will have limited fluctuations [54]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract rose 4.63% to 148,100 yuan/ton. The market sentiment has improved. The supply is at a high level, the demand from the energy - storage and power - battery sectors has improved, and the inventory has decreased. The price has strong support below, but the short - term volatility may increase [55]. Copper - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 105,180 yuan/ton, down 3.49%. Geopolitical events have stimulated the hedging demand, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut remains unchanged. The mine supply is disturbed, the consumption has entered the off - season, and the inventory has increased. The copper price is expected to be adjusted before the Spring Festival [57]. Aluminum - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,865 yuan/ton, up 1.47%; the alumina main contract closed at 2,806 yuan/ton, down 0.14%. The alumina supply is loose, the electrolytic aluminum production growth space is limited, the demand is weak, and the inventory has increased. The aluminum price is expected to be under pressure in the short term [59][60]. Zinc - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 24,805 yuan/ton, down 0.4%. The supply has tightened, the demand is weak, and the inventory has not started to accumulate significantly. The zinc market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the zinc price is expected to enter an adjustment period [62]. Lead - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16,615 yuan/ton, down 0.15%. The supply and demand are both weak, and the lead price is expected to maintain a range - bound shock [64][65]. Tin - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai tin main contract rose 6.64% to 398,100 yuan/ton. The mine supply is tight, the demand has certain resilience, the inventory has decreased, and the tin price has support below. However, the short - term volatility may increase [66]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel main contract rose 2.34% to 135,770 yuan/ton. The US plans to start a strategic mineral reserve project, and the nickel production cost is expected to rise. The nickel mine price is stable, the downstream demand is weak, and the refined nickel is in an oversupply pattern. Investors should pay attention to relevant policies in Indonesia [67]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract fell 1.05% to 2,727 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract fell 1.08% to 8,086 yuan/ton. The US bio - fuel tax credit policy has an impact on the market. The domestic soybean import has slowed down, the oil - mill profit has improved, and the cost support has decreased. The demand for soybean meal is growing moderately, and the demand for soybean oil has improved slightly. Investors can pay attention to the long - position opportunity in the low - cost support range for soybean meal and wait and see after the soybean oil price leaves the low - cost range [68][69]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil continued to decline after the weekend holiday, but the strong export data limited the decline. Indonesia plans to restrict the export of palm - oil waste. The domestic palm - oil import has decreased, and the inventory has slightly decreased. Investors can consider the opportunity of going long after the correction [70][71]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed has risen slightly. The US bio - fuel tax credit policy has an impact on the market. China has adjusted the tariff on Canadian rapeseed. The rapeseed meal inventory has decreased, and the rapeseed oil inventory has increased. Investors should wait and see for the time being [73]. Cotton - On the previous trading day, the domestic Zhengzhou cotton rebounded with a reduction in positions. The external - internal price difference is large, and the short - term upward space of the domestic market may be limited. The USDA supply - demand report is favorable to the market. The domestic cotton production is high, but the inventory accumulation is lower than expected, and the future supply is expected to be tight. The downstream consumption is resilient. It is expected that the cotton price will be strong in the medium and long term, but the domestic market has pressure in the short term. Investors can buy in batches at low prices after a full correction [75][76]. Sugar - On the previous trading day, the Zhengzhou sugar contract fell with an increase in positions. The Indian sugar production is expected to increase, and the Brazilian new - season sugar is also expected to be in a good harvest. The domestic sugar supply is sufficient, and the import volume is high. It is expected to be bearish in the medium and long term [78]. Apples - On the previous trading day, the domestic apple futures fluctuated. The market is at the end of the Spring Festival stocking period, and it is expected to enter a small - range shock. The current inventory is at a low level in recent years, and the new - season apple production and quality have declined. It is expected that the price will be strong in the medium and long term. Investors can go long in batches after a correction [80][81]. Pigs - On the previous trading day, the main contract fell 0.98% to 11,160 yuan/ton. The market supply is abundant, and the pig price has fallen. The supply may still face great pressure in the first quarter, and investors should wait and see [83][84]. Eggs - On the previous trading day, the main contract fell 0.74% to 2,953 yuan/500kg. The egg supply is expected to remain at a high level in February, and the far - month supply improvement prospect is worrying. Investors should wait and see for the time being [85]. Corn and Corn Starch - On the previous trading day, the corn main contract rose 0.09% to 2,267 yuan/ton, and the corn - starch main contract fell 0.20% to 2,509 yuan/ton. The US bio - fuel tax credit policy has an impact on the market. The domestic corn is basically in balance between production and demand, and the corn - starch demand has improved slightly. The corn - starch may follow the corn market [86][87]. Logs - On the previous trading day, the main 2603 contract closed at 801.0 yuan/ton, up 0.50%. The supply has slightly shrunk, the downstream procurement has improved, the inventory has decreased, and the cost has slightly increased. The short - term market is strong, but the fundamental improvement needs time. Investors should pay attention to the external - market quotation, holiday progress, and shipping dynamics [88][89].

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in international gold prices have raised concerns among investors, with gold reaching $5600 per ounce before a significant drop, particularly in silver, which saw a 30% decline in a single day [1][2][6] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent drop in gold prices is attributed to a hawkish stance from the new Federal Reserve Chairman, leading to fears of tightening liquidity and balance sheet reduction [1][2] - The rapid increase in gold prices, exceeding $1000 in just a couple of weeks, was unsustainable, indicating that such sharp rises often precede significant corrections [1][2][6] - The current rebound in gold prices, now above $4800 per ounce, suggests that many investors are taking advantage of the dip, presenting a re-entry opportunity for those who missed earlier gains [2][7] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to view gold and silver as part of a long-term asset allocation strategy rather than short-term trading opportunities, with a recommendation to allocate about 20% of their portfolio to gold-related assets [2][7] - The volatility in gold and silver prices serves as a reminder that no asset is immune to fluctuations, emphasizing the importance of a rational investment approach [2][7] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Looking ahead to 2026, gold and silver are expected to remain attractive assets, although the likelihood of a one-sided price surge like in 2025 is low, with increased volatility anticipated [3][8] - Factors such as rising U.S. national debt, which has surpassed $38 trillion, and concerns over fiscal sustainability are likely to support the long-term upward trend in gold prices [3][9] - The ongoing trend of "de-dollarization" is expected to gradually reduce the dollar's dominance in global payments and reserves, enhancing the appeal of gold and other hard currencies [4][9] Group 4: Economic Context - Domestic investors are facing a pivotal moment in asset allocation, with a significant amount of fixed-term deposits maturing and interest rates declining, prompting a search for new investment avenues [10] - The A-share market is showing signs of a slow bull market, with historical patterns suggesting potential for a spring rally, which could lead to increased investment in equities [10][11] - The focus for 2025 will be on technology stocks, while 2026 is expected to highlight innovations in various sectors, indicating a potential shift in capital market dynamics [10][11]

宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2026 年 2 月 4 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2604 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 短期宏观预期走弱，前期多头资 金了结意愿强 | | 铜 | 2603 | 强势 | 震荡 | 强势 | 长线看强 | 短期宏观预期走弱，前期多头资 金了结意愿强 | 说明： 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：继上周五宏观氛围走弱，贵金属有色普跌以 ...

综合来看，我们认为这是一次在短期快速上涨后事件催化下的交易型调整，并不是叙事逻辑的整体反 转。当然，我们也建议投资者密切关注美元流动性/美元贬值的相关定价逻辑在此后沃什执掌美联储的 时代将如何演进。我们倾向于认为这是对美元贬值压力的边际缓解，但并不改变"去美元化"的整体趋 势。 投资者仍将黄金视作对抗地缘风险的重要避风港，全球央行也将继续作为买方对金价形成支撑。JP Morgan、德意志银行皆预测今年的金价现货有望达到6,000美元/盎司。我们也认为短期回撤不改变长期 定价逻辑，投资者或可考虑在短期风险释放后进行布局。 风险提示： 投资人应当充分了解基金定期定额投资和零存整取等储蓄方式的区别。定期定额投资是引导投资人进行 长期投资、平均投资成本的一种简单易行的投资方式。但是定期定额投资并不能规避基金投资所固有的 风险，不能保证投资人获得收益，也不是替代储蓄的等效理财方式。 黄金遭受40年以来最大回撤，但长期的配置逻辑没有发生重大改变，波动率降低后或有布局机会。投资 者或可关注黄金ETF国泰（518800）等产品。 受到上周五沃什被提名为美联储主席的影响，金银皆录得40年以来最大回撤。沃什主张通过"缩表+降 息 ...

昨日2月3日（星期二），黄金早盘开盘从4670低点一路攀升，晚间维持在4880上方震荡偏强运行，凌晨最高触及4994附近后回落继续震荡，日线收出一根大 阳线。 一、技术面 昨日黄金早评中提及，从走势结构来看，黄金自5597高点下行至4403低点的调整行情，其短周期调整结构已逐步趋于完整。昨日黄金表现强劲，盘中涨幅一 度超300美元。 上周四黄金触及5597高点后开启大幅回落，截至本周一最低下探至4403附近，随后自该低点启动回升走势。昨日黄金延续强势上涨态势，截至目前已收复此 前跌幅的五成。 关于此轮调整是否已正式结束，需结合走势结构进一步研判。 此前特朗普提名鹰派人物KevinWarsh（凯文・沃什）接替5月卸任的鲍威尔任美联储主席，Warsh因主张"缩减美联储资产负债表、强硬控制通胀"，引发市场 对"降息推迟+缩表"的担忧，叠加芝商所上调贵金属期货保证金要求，直接导致金价短期暴跌。 2月3日市场情绪逆转，投资者重新评估政策影响，认为短期恐慌性抛售过度，低吸买盘大量涌入，推动金价反弹。ZanerMetals副总裁PeterGrant明确指出， 此次下跌仅是"长期上升趋势中的技术性修正"，4400美元为关键支 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to experience volatility in February, with indices likely to perform better post-holiday compared to pre-holiday levels. The report emphasizes a preference for growth style investments, particularly in small-cap and growth sectors, as the market remains in a spring rally phase [1][2]. Market Style Outlook - Growth style is favored, with a convergence in performance between large-cap and small-cap stocks anticipated. The recommended indices include CSI 1000, ChiNext 50, CSI 300 Quality, and CSI 800 Information [2]. - Historical data from 2016-2025 indicates that small-cap and growth styles have a higher success rate in February. The late timing of the Spring Festival and the upcoming Two Sessions are expected to enhance the performance of small-cap stocks due to increased market risk appetite [2]. Fundamental Analysis - The manufacturing PMI for January recorded at 49.3, indicating a return to contraction territory, with both production and demand showing marginal declines. The ongoing structural issue of insufficient domestic demand remains, with policies aimed at expanding domestic consumption expected to be a primary focus [2]. - On the international front, expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policies and a weaker dollar may lead to a temporary strengthening of the dollar, which could exert pressure on A-share cyclical styles. However, sectors benefiting from industrial trends, such as technology and AI, are likely to be less affected [2]. Liquidity and Capital Supply-Demand - February is projected to see continued net inflows of incremental capital, with foreign capital expected to continue flowing in before the holiday and financing likely to rebound afterward. The central bank's measures to counteract liquidity tightening from government bond issuances in January are expected to maintain a stable and ample liquidity environment in February [3][4]. - The stock market experienced a net outflow of tracked capital in January, with financing becoming the main source of incremental capital. The demand side shows an increase in net reductions by major shareholders, while IPO and refinancing scales have decreased, keeping overall funding demand stable [4]. Market Sentiment and Capital Preferences - In January, the risk premium for the entire A-share market fluctuated, with major indices experiencing initial gains followed by volatility. The technology sector remained the dominant style, with significant trading activity in small-cap growth and STAR 50 indices, while large-cap growth styles saw lower trading concentration [4].

5598.75美元/盎司的黄金历史最高价，9%的近40年最大单日跌幅，仅隔了一个交易日。2026年1月，贵 金属市场给所有人上了一课。 分析人士认为，近期贵金属市场震荡更多是行情过热后的主动降温，而非恐慌性撤离。在美元信用困局 解决之前，贵金属中长期支撑价格上涨的核心逻辑依然坚实。 开年以来大起大落 回顾过去一周，贵金属市场经历了罕见的大起大落。 经历了暴涨暴跌后，贵金属市场再度企稳。截至北京时间2月3日16时28分，伦敦金现货价格从低位反弹 约6%，收复4900美元/盎司关口；伦敦银现货价格反弹约10%。市场情绪从极度恐慌中逐渐恢复，但波 动率仍处于历史高位。 "最近我们调整黄金目标价的次数，绝对比过去任何时候都要频繁得多。"一位贵金属分析师在接受中国 证券报记者采访时感慨道。 1月，国际金价一度逼近5600美元/盎司，白银更是狂飙至120美元/盎司上方，截至1月29日，1月以来累 计涨幅分别高达24%和62%。然而就在市场沉浸于狂欢之际，1月末两个交易日风云突变，金价单日暴 跌逾9%，白银单日重挫超26%，令无数追高者措手不及。 本周，国际市场率先企稳反弹。Wind数据显示，截至2月3日16时28分，伦敦 ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market experienced significant volatility, with gold reaching a historical high of $5598.75 per ounce and then experiencing a 9% drop, marking the largest single-day decline in nearly 40 years. However, the market has since stabilized, with gold prices rebounding to around $4900 per ounce and silver prices increasing by approximately 10% [1][2]. Market Volatility - The precious metals market saw a rare fluctuation at the beginning of the year, with gold prices nearing $5600 per ounce and silver prices soaring above $120 per ounce, resulting in cumulative increases of 24% and 62% respectively by January 29. This was followed by a sharp decline, with gold dropping over 9% and silver plummeting more than 26% in just two trading days [2]. - Analysts attribute the recent volatility to three main factors: concentrated profit-taking, increased margin requirements by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), and market sentiment being affected by the nomination of the Federal Reserve Chairman [2][3]. Underlying Market Drivers - Despite the recent fluctuations, analysts believe that the core logic supporting the long-term price increase of precious metals remains intact, primarily due to the weakening of the US dollar's credibility and ongoing gold purchases by global central banks [4]. - The current gold price is perceived to have deviated from traditional valuation frameworks, with analysts noting that the driving factors for this price increase differ fundamentally from past trends, including structural demand changes due to global central bank purchases and the weakening dollar [5]. Pricing Logic - The pricing of gold can be understood through three layers: 1. Monetary attributes, which determine the long-term valuation center based on fiat currency supply. 2. Financial attributes, which influence short-term price fluctuations, particularly in relation to Federal Reserve policies and US Treasury yields. 3. Safe-haven attributes, which provide a premium during geopolitical tensions and financial crises [6]. - Current gold prices are considered significantly overvalued, with estimates suggesting a reasonable valuation around $2990 per ounce, indicating an 80% premium over current levels. However, this overvaluation may persist due to ongoing geopolitical tensions [6]. Future Outlook - The end of the current gold price uptrend is contingent upon the US addressing issues related to low inflation, low interest rates, and the dominance of the dollar. This requires the US to restore fiscal discipline, rebuild trust in US Treasuries, and achieve robust economic growth [7]. - Analysts remain optimistic about the future of gold, with predictions suggesting potential price targets of $7200 per ounce in bullish scenarios and $4600 per ounce in bearish scenarios. Factors such as escalating geopolitical tensions or weakening economic data could trigger renewed buying in precious metals [8].