Core Viewpoint - Oil prices experienced a slight decline on the first trading day of 2026, following the largest annual drop since 2020, as investors weighed concerns over supply surplus against geopolitical risks, including the Ukraine war and issues with Venezuelan exports [1][2]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - On the first trading day of 2026, Brent crude oil contracts fell by $0.10 to $60.75 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also decreased by $0.10 to $57.32 per barrel [1][2]. - In 2025, both Brent and WTI benchmark crude prices recorded nearly a 20% annual decline, marking the most severe drop since 2020, primarily due to concerns over supply surplus and tariff issues overshadowing geopolitical risks [4]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing negotiations led by U.S. President Donald Trump aim to end the nearly four-year conflict between Russia and Ukraine, yet both nations continue to accuse each other of civilian attacks [1][2]. - In recent months, Ukraine has intensified its attacks on Russian energy infrastructure to cut off funding for Moscow's military operations in Ukraine [3]. - The U.S. government has increased pressure on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, imposing sanctions on four companies and their associated tankers operating in the Venezuelan oil industry [3]. Group 3: OPEC+ Outlook - Analysts from Sparta Commodities indicate that traders generally expect OPEC+ to continue its production freeze in the first quarter of 2026 [3]. - DBS Bank's energy analyst forecasts that Brent oil prices will remain relatively stable in 2026, fluctuating between $60 and $65 per barrel [4].

白银（XAG/USD）在周五早盘上涨至每盎司74.10美元，当日涨幅超过3%。白银上涨主要受美联储可 能在2026年再降息两次预期支撑，同时美元承压提升了以美元计价白银对海外买家的吸引力。避险需求 在全球地缘政治紧张背景下进一步凸显，包括俄罗斯与乌克兰的新年平民袭击事件，以及美国与委内瑞 拉关系紧张。此外，中国投机性需求激增，上海期货交易所白银溢价创历史新高，全球供应紧张局面呼 应伦敦和纽约金库低库存，为白银价格提供额外支撑。 周五早盘，英镑/美元延续反弹，交投于1.3450上方。市场预计，如果新任美联储主席偏鸽派，美元可 能承压，从而为英镑提供支撑。英国央行近期将利率下调至3.75%，并表示将继续采取渐进式宽松策 略，但每次降息幅度难以预测。欧元/美元稳定在1.1750附近，市场关注欧洲即将公布的Sentix投资者信 心指数。美元/日元连续两个交易日上涨，周五早盘交投于157.00附近，延续近期升势。 UNFX1月2日讯（分析师 Stephen）新年的首个交易日，全球金融市场延续节日氛围，整体走势保持平 稳。周五欧洲早盘，美元指数在98.00上方窄幅震荡，股指期货小幅上涨0.3%至0.7%，显示投资者对整 ...

Group 1 - Palm oil prices have declined for the second consecutive trading day, reaching a two-week low due to weak crude oil trends and declining exports from Malaysia [1][4] - On Friday, palm oil futures fell below 4,000 ringgit per ton (approximately 986 USD), while soybean oil, a major competitor in the fuel and food markets, also dropped by 1.8% on Wednesday [1] - The decline in crude oil prices is attributed to widespread geopolitical risks and sustained global supply growth, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil falling by 0.9% to settle at 57.42 USD, marking a 20% decline for the year 2025 [1] Group 2 - Malaysia's palm oil exports have faced pressure, with a 5% month-on-month decrease in December, totaling 1.2 million tons according to AmSpec data [4] - The holiday season purchasing may provide support below 4,000 ringgit per ton, with expectations of buying on dips; demand ahead of the Lunar New Year and Ramadan in February 2026 is anticipated to drive prices up [4]

24K99讯 周五(1月2日)亚市盘中，现货黄金持续大幅攀升，目前金价位于4378美元/盎司附近，日内暴涨 近60美元。FXStreet分析师Lallalit Srijandorn周五撰文，对金价进行分析。 (现货黄金30分钟图 来源：24K99) 此外，持续不断的以色列-伊朗冲突和美国-委内瑞拉紧张局势可能会推高金价。值得注意的是，交易者 在不确定时期会寻求能够保值的资产，这支撑了黄金等传统避险资产。 另一方面，Srijandorn警告称，交易者也可能获利了结或重新调整投资组合，这可能会限制金价的上涨 空间。 芝加哥商品交易所(CME)集团提高了黄金、白银和其他金属的保证金要求。这些通知要求交易者在交易 中投入更多资金，以防范合约交割时可能出现的违约风险。CME是全球最大的商品交易平台之一。 黄金后市分析与展望 Srijandorn写道，周五亚洲市场金价大幅攀升。市场预期美联储今年将降息，以及地缘政治风险可能推 高金价。不过，CME集团提高黄金和白银期货的保证金要求，可能会限制贵金属价格的上涨空间。 黄金在2025年以显著上涨收官，全年涨幅约为65%，创下1979年以来的最大年度涨幅。贵金属价格上涨 的动力 ...

国信证券分析认为，近期白银价格暴涨，远超历史水平，主要原因可能系工业属性弹性凸显，背后是经济预期的走高，基本面的支撑；国内白银库存处于 历史低位，而中国是制造大国，下游制品的供给也占比很大；12月是白银期货的交割月；叠加近期白银暴涨带来的财富效应，吸引大量资金涌入。逼仓之 下，价格暴涨。 国信证券表示，中长期仍然看好黄金资产。弱美元、降息周期下，叠加更宏大的美元信任危机等，目前没有中长期看空黄金资产的理由。央行购金、黄金 ETF的投资需求，全球地缘政治风险及脆弱性等因素，也为中长期黄金及部分实物资产提供了支撑。 【导读】贵金属集体拉升，黄金、白银再度走高 1月2日，贵金属集体走高，现货黄金跳空高开，日内大涨55美元，突破4370美元/盎司，涨1.27%。 现货白银日内涨幅一度扩大至3%，向上触及73美元/盎司。 此外，现货铂金、现货钯金纷纷走高，涨超2%。 | COMEX自银 | 72.810 | 3.13% | | --- | --- | --- | | SI.CMX | | | | 伦敦银现 | 73.434 | 2.59% | | SPTAGUSDOZ.IDC | | | | 现货铂金(美元/盎司) | ...

Group 1 - Precious metals experienced a collective surge, with spot gold opening high and rising by $55 to surpass $4,370 per ounce, marking a 1.27% increase [2] - Spot silver saw an intraday increase of up to 3%, reaching $73 per ounce [3] - Both spot platinum and palladium also rose by over 2% [5] Group 2 - Guosen Securities noted that the recent surge in silver prices, exceeding historical levels, is primarily due to the industrial demand elasticity, supported by positive economic expectations and low domestic silver inventories in China [6] - The demand for silver is driven by growth in industrial applications, particularly in photovoltaic and electronics sectors, leading to a persistent supply gap [7] - There is a divergence in market opinions regarding silver's performance; some believe it is nearing the end of its upward trend, while others argue that its increasing importance in technology sectors may lead to a new market cycle [7][8] Group 3 - Dongwu Futures indicated that the long-term fundamentals, driven by global technological and green industry developments, provide solid support for silver demand, although the current excessive price increase poses a risk of significant corrections [8]

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, gold prices fell on the last trading day, but for the entire year, they rose by 64%, marking the largest increase in 46 years since 1979 [1] Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Prices - The rise in gold prices is primarily driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, increasing geopolitical risks, and central banks' accumulation of gold [1] - Continuous inflows into gold ETFs have also contributed to the upward momentum in gold prices [1] Group 2: Future Predictions - James Rickards, author of the financial bestseller "Currency Wars," predicts that gold prices could reach $10,000 by the end of 2026, with silver potentially rising to $200 [1] - The traditional drivers of the current gold bull market, such as demand from central banks and relatively stagnant supply, are expected to remain effective for a considerable time into 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing short-term pressure from bears, leading to a decline in prices, particularly after breaking below the October high of $4381.44, which may result in significant losses for aggressive traders who anticipated a breakout [1] Group 1: Market Trends - In the long-term bullish context, gold prices are expected to undergo several months of consolidation before resuming an upward trend, despite recording a substantial annual increase of approximately 65% in 2025, marking the best annual performance in over 40 years [2] - The market is currently in a correction phase after a steady rise throughout the year, with prices accelerating towards the end of the year before stabilizing [2] Group 2: Future Outlook - For 2026, fundamental factors supporting gold prices are anticipated to regain momentum, including the actual impact of Federal Reserve rate cuts, expectations of new monetary easing, ongoing geopolitical risks, central bank gold purchases, and inflows into gold ETFs [2] - Although rate cut expectations provide support, the market widely recognizes that gold is in a bull market, which may hinder the ability to replicate last year's remarkable price increases [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold prices have also fallen below the short-term 50% Fibonacci retracement level, transforming the $4350.27-$4381.44 range into a resistance zone, with traders targeting the mid-term 50% retracement level of $4211.60 and the 50-day moving average at $4174.88 as a support area [3] - The 50-day moving average is crucial as it has guided gold prices higher since mid-August; a significant drop below this average could shift market sentiment from "extremely bullish" to "moderately bullish" [3]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market, particularly gold, has experienced a significant bull market in 2025, with gold prices achieving a remarkable 64% increase, the highest annual gain in nearly 46 years. However, the outlook for 2026 suggests potential volatility and challenges due to increased short-selling and profit-taking pressures [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Gold prices closed at $4318.67 per ounce at the end of 2025, with a notable drop of 0.6% on the last trading day [1]. - Silver prices fell by 6.7% to $71.36, while platinum and palladium also saw significant declines of 8.7% and other pressures [1]. - The overall strong performance of precious metals in 2025 was driven by multiple factors, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, and substantial inflows into ETFs [1][2]. Group 2: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that gold could reach $5000 per ounce and silver may challenge $100 in 2026, supported by ongoing structural supply shortages and robust industrial demand [1]. - The expectation of 2-3 interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 could sustain the upward trend in gold prices, although potential selling pressure from retail investors and reduced central bank purchases could pose challenges [2]. - The market is currently in a correction phase, which is seen as a healthy adjustment before potential further gains in 2026 [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Short-term technical indicators for gold show a downward trend, with significant support around the $4300-$4280 range and resistance at $4375-$4380 [3][5]. - The market is advised to adopt a cautious approach, focusing on buying on dips while being aware of potential selling pressures [5].

Group 1: Oil Market - Crude oil recorded its largest annual decline since 2020, driven by geopolitical risks and rising global supply, with a projected oversupply expected to continue affecting prices into 2026 [2][8] - West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell by 0.9%, settling at $57.42 per barrel, marking a 20% decline for the year [2][8] - Analysts predict that oil prices will fluctuate between $50 and $70, with uncertainties surrounding supply from Venezuela and Russia providing some price support [2][8] Group 2: Base Metals - Copper prices experienced their largest annual increase since 2009, rising by 42% year-to-date on the London Metal Exchange (LME), driven by strong demand for electrification and recent supply tightness [3][9] - The surge in copper prices outperformed other industrial metals in the market [3][9] Group 3: Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices fell on the last trading day of 2025 but are still on track to achieve their largest annual gains in over 40 years, attributed to strong demand for safe-haven assets amid rising geopolitical risks and Federal Reserve rate cuts [5][11] - Spot gold hovered around $4,320 per ounce, while silver dipped towards $71 per ounce, with significant market volatility prompting increased margin requirements for futures [5][11] - Both metals are set for their best annual performance since 1979, driven by inflation concerns and rising debt burdens in developed economies [5][11]