Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★, indicating long - position dominance [1] - Silver: ★★, indicating long - position dominance [1] - Copper: ★, indicating long - position dominance [1] - Zinc: ★, indicating short - position dominance [1] - Lead: ★, indicating short - position dominance [1] - Tin: ★, indicating a neutral position [1] - Aluminum: ★★, indicating long - position dominance [1] - Nickel: ★, indicating a neutral position [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★, indicating long - position dominance [1] - Polysilicon: ★, indicating short - position dominance [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★, indicating short - position dominance [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Gold: Hold long positions. Supported by short - to long - term factors such as interest - rate cut expectations and geopolitical conflicts. Long - term strategic allocation is recommended. Be cautious of recession trading risks [1][3] - Silver: Hold long positions. High - level volatility in the short term. With strong demand and limited supply growth in the medium - to long - term, the upward trend remains unchanged. Pay attention to US dollar liquidity risks [1] - Copper: Hold long positions. The probability of a 50bp interest - rate cut by the Fed increases. With the arrival of the peak season and tight supply, long - term optimism is maintained [1][7] - Zinc: Wait for opportunities to short on rebounds. In the short term, more macro - and micro - level resonance is needed for further upward movement. In the long term, supply increases while demand decreases [1][10] - Lead: The price rebound is under pressure due to factors such as production recovery and weak downstream consumption [1] - Tin: The price stabilizes after a decline due to a weak supply - demand situation [1] - Aluminum: The price shows a strong upward trend. With the approaching peak season, demand recovers and supply is relatively stable [1][13] - Nickel: The price rebounds weakly. There is an oversupply of refined nickel and weak downstream consumption. Short - term profit - taking and waiting are recommended [1][17] - Industrial Silicon: The price shows a short - term upward trend due to news of energy - consumption restrictions [1] - Polysilicon: The price corrects from a high level. There are expectations of fundamental improvement and policy support. Short - term support is at 50,000 yuan [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. There is a strong game between long and short positions. The market is waiting for the market to stabilize [1][22] Group 3: Summary by Variety Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Gold remains strong supported by interest - rate cut expectations and geopolitical conflicts [2] - **Basic Logic**: US inflation pressure eases, interest - rate cut expectations increase; regional conflicts escalate; gold benefits from global monetary easing and geopolitical restructuring in the long term [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Adopt a long - position strategy in the short term. Gold should be continuously monitored if it fails to break through the high of 842. Silver may find support around 9630 [4] Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper consolidates at a high level, adjusting and accumulating strength [6] - **Industrial Logic**: Copper concentrate supply is tight. With the arrival of the peak season, demand recovers, and the overall supply - demand is in a tight balance [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions. Shanghai copper should focus on the range of [79,000, 82,000] yuan/ton, and LME copper on [9,900, 11,000] US dollars/ton [7] Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc stops falling and rebounds [9] - **Industrial Logic**: Zinc concentrate supply is abundant in 2025. Domestic refinery maintenance increases in September, and inventory shows different trends at home and abroad. Demand is expected to improve in the peak season [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see for now, and wait for opportunities to short on rebounds. Shanghai zinc should focus on the range of [22,000, 22,500] yuan/ton, and LME zinc on [2,700, 2,900] US dollars/ton [10] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices continue to rebound, and alumina stabilizes at a low level [12] - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, interest - rate cut expectations are obvious. Production increases slightly, and demand recovers in the peak season. For alumina, supply is abundant, and inventory accumulates [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Adopt a short - term long - position strategy for Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises. The main operating range is [20,000 - 21,200] yuan/ton [14] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices rebound weakly, and stainless steel rebounds under pressure [16] - **Industrial Logic**: For nickel, there is an oversupply of refined nickel and weak downstream consumption. For stainless steel, downstream demand is weak, and inventory is gradually decreasing [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Adopt a short - term profit - taking and wait - and - see strategy, paying attention to the improvement of terminal consumption. The main operating range of nickel is [120,000 - 122,000] yuan/ton [18] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opens low and goes high, falling more than 4% [20] - **Industrial Logic**: Supply shows an upward trend with a decreasing marginal increment. Demand shows peak - season characteristics, and inventory has been declining for four weeks. However, news of CATL's resumption of production affects market sentiment [21] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach, focusing on the range of [70,000 - 71,500] yuan/ton [22]

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 9 月 11 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 中线行情： 4 月下旬至 8 月初伦敦黄金在 3100-3500 美元/盎司之间宽幅震荡以消化高估 值压力，8 月份以来美国就业通胀形势支持美联储重启降息进程，且在特朗普压 力下美联储降息步伐可能快于就业通胀形势所需，而地缘政治风险也继续为黄金 提供避险需求。8 月底至 9 月初避险需求、流动性溢价以及计价货币因素共同推 动金价突破 3500 美元/盎司关口，我们判断金价已经开启新一轮上涨趋势，本轮 上涨趋势可能维持到 2026 年春夏之 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing market uncertainty due to global economic slowdown, geopolitical risks, and fluctuating central bank policies, highlighting the potential for a revaluation of gold as a safe-haven asset in this complex environment [1]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Real interest rates are a crucial variable for observing gold price trends. As central banks tighten policies under high inflation, gold often faces pressure due to the lack of interest returns. However, if rates approach a peak or enter a downward trend, the decline in real returns could significantly enhance gold's pricing foundation [3]. - The performance of the US dollar and global liquidity patterns also impact gold. A temporary weakening of the dollar may lead to increased allocation of international funds towards gold and other non-dollar assets. Additionally, the trend of central banks increasing gold reserves is strengthening, as official purchases are becoming a key support for gold prices [3]. Group 2: Shifts in Gold Investment Logic - Current market valuation logic for gold is shifting from "short-term hedging" to "medium to long-term allocation." While risk aversion can drive short-term price increases, the long-term value of gold is supported by real interest rates, central bank demand, and the broader liquidity environment [5]. - Overall, the investment logic surrounding gold is becoming more diversified, serving as both a defensive asset during turbulent times and a structural beneficiary amid changes in interest rates and liquidity cycles [5].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have reached a new historical high, driven by factors such as expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, geopolitical risks, and increased demand from global central banks [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movement - On September 9, the spot price of gold in London hit a record high of $3,659.38 per ounce, surpassing the previous high of $3,646.46 per ounce on September 8 [1]. - As of September 9, the spot price was reported at $3,653.37 per ounce, reflecting a month-on-month increase of over 7% and a year-to-date increase of over $1,000, or more than 38% [1]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The rise in gold prices is attributed to several factors, including the weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data for August, a slight increase in the unemployment rate, and the resulting market speculation regarding the extent and frequency of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1]. - The decline in the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts, has also supported gold prices [1]. - Increased gold purchases by global central banks have been noted, with the World Gold Council reporting that central banks added 166 tons of gold in the second quarter of this year [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Short-term expectations suggest that gold prices may continue to rise, although technical adjustments could occur [2]. - Long-term projections indicate that gold prices are likely to trend upwards due to ongoing support from interest rate cuts and strong central bank demand for gold [2]. - The market's ongoing uncertainty regarding U.S. monetary policy and geopolitical risks is expected to sustain demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overnight Israeli air - strike on the Hamas base in Qatar has increased the risk sentiment of geopolitical concerns, and the situation in Gaza is unlikely to improve. The EIA's short - term energy outlook remains pessimistic about future oil prices, and the API inventory has increased more than expected, putting pressure on prices. In the short term, continue to monitor geopolitical changes. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate. It is predicted to operate in the range of 480 - 490 in the short term, and long - term long positions should be held [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: Israel's air - strike on Hamas leaders in Qatar has escalated the military operation in the Middle East. The EIA predicts that global oil prices will drop significantly in the coming months as OPEC+ production increases, causing a large increase in oil inventories. The U.S. economic employment figures may be 911,000 less than previously estimated. Overall, it is neutral [3]. - **Basis**: On September 9, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $70.05 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $69.38 per barrel. The basis was $37.67 per barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is bullish [3]. - **Inventory**: The U.S. API crude oil inventory for the week ending September 5 increased by 1.25 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 1.869 million barrels. The EIA inventory for the week ending August 29 increased by 2.415 million barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 2.031 million barrels. The Cushing area inventory for the week ending August 29 increased by 1.59 million barrels. As of September 9, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 5.721 million barrels, which is bearish [3]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the price is below the moving average, which is neutral [3]. - **Main Position**: As of September 2, the main position of WTI crude oil is long, with a decrease in long positions; the main position of Brent crude oil is long, with an increase in long positions, which is neutral [3]. - **Expectation**: Oil prices are expected to fluctuate. In the short term, it will operate in the range of 480 - 490, and long - term long positions should be held [3]. 2. Recent News - **Israeli Attack in Qatar**: On September 9, there were several explosions in Doha, Qatar. Israel's military and security agencies admitted responsibility for the attack on Hamas leaders. The targeted Hamas leaders were said to be responsible for the 2023 attack on Israel and were planning new operations. The attack occurred during a meeting of Hamas leaders discussing a U.S. - proposed cease - fire in Gaza [5]. - **U.S. Employment Data Revision**: The U.S. government stated that the total number of employment positions in the economy as of March may be 911,000 less than previously estimated, indicating that employment growth had stagnated before Trump's tariff policies. The data revision means that the average monthly increase in non - farm employment is about 71,000 instead of 147,000. The financial market's reaction was limited, and the Fed is expected to resume interest - rate cuts next Wednesday [5]. - **Iran - IAEA Agreement**: On the evening of September 9, Iran's foreign minister and the IAEA director - general announced a new cooperation agreement in Cairo, aiming to build a new cooperation framework between Iran and the IAEA, which is the first meeting since the June bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities by Israel and the U.S. [5]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: None mentioned in the report. - **Bearish Factors**: The possibility of a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, and the continuous tension in U.S. trade relations with other economies [6]. - **Market Drivers**: In the short term, geopolitical conflicts are decreasing, while the risk of trade tariffs is rising. In the medium - to - long - term, supply will increase after the peak season [6]. - **Risk Points**: Disunity within OPEC+ leading to increased production, and the escalation of war risks [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, SC crude oil, and Oman crude oil have all increased, with increases of $0.37, $0.37, $7.20, and $0.34 respectively, and the increase rates are 0.56%, 0.59%, 1.51%, and 0.49% respectively [7]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of UK Brent, WTI, Oman crude oil, Shengli crude oil, and Dubai crude oil have all increased, with increases of $0.22, $0.37, $0.67, $0.39, and $0.56 respectively, and the increase rates are 0.33%, 0.59%, 0.97%, 0.61%, and 0.81% respectively [9]. - **Inventory Data**: The API inventory for the week ending September 5 increased by 1.25 million barrels, and the EIA inventory for the week ending August 29 increased by 2.415 million barrels [3]. 5. Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of September 2, the net long position of WTI crude oil funds was 102,428, a decrease of 7,044 [16]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of September 2, the net long position of Brent crude oil funds was 251,054, an increase of 44,511 [18].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - **Polyester Industry**: The short - term supply - demand pattern of short - fiber is weak, with high supply and uncertain demand during the peak season. PTA's absolute price follows raw material fluctuations, and its basis and processing fee repair drivers are limited. The supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol is strong in the near term and weak in the long term. The price of PX is expected to be supported at low levels, but the rebound space is limited [2]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda Industry**: The caustic soda spot price may remain firm in the short term, while the decline space of the futures price is limited. The PVC market is under pressure, with supply increasing and demand remaining weak, and it is expected to continue weak and volatile [5]. - **Crude Oil Industry**: Geopolitical events increase the risk premium of oil prices, but the loose supply - demand pattern restricts the increase. It is recommended to mainly wait and see on the single - side, and look for opportunities to expand spreads on the option side [9]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry**: The supply - demand of pure benzene in September is expected to be loose, and its price is driven by oil prices. The short - term drive of styrene is weak, but there is an expectation of improvement in supply - demand in the future [14]. - **Polyolefin Industry**: The current core contradiction in the polyolefin market is not prominent. The market will present a pattern of "decreasing supply and increasing demand", with attention to the supply rhythm and seasonal demand [17]. - **Urea Industry**: The urea futures price is weak due to a loose supply - demand pattern and low market sentiment, with high supply and weak demand [21]. - **Methanol Industry**: The methanol supply is increasing, and the demand from traditional downstream is weak. The port is accumulating inventory, and attention should be paid to the inventory digestion rhythm [33]. Summary by Directory Polyester Industry - **Raw Material Prices**: On September 9, Brent crude oil (November) was $66.02/barrel, up 0.6%; CFR China PX was $836/ton, up 0.4% [2]. - **Product Prices and Cash Flows**: POY150/48 price was 6805 yuan/ton, down 0.3%; its cash flow was 144 yuan/ton, down 3.7% [2]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: The comprehensive operating rate of polyester was 91.3%, up 1.0%; the operating rate of PTA was 70.4%, up 3.4% [2]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Product Prices**: On September 9, the market price of PVC in East China was 4650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 2718.8 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: The operating rate of the caustic soda industry was 86.7%, up 1.5%; the total operating rate of PVC was 76.2%, up 3.9% [5]. - **Inventory**: On September 4, the inventory of liquid caustic soda in East China factories was 170,000 tons, down 7.8%; the total social inventory of PVC was 533,000 tons, up 2.1% [5]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 10, Brent crude oil was $66.70/barrel, up 0.47%; the spread between Brent M1 - M3 was $0.55/barrel, up 3.77% [9]. - **Driving Factors**: Geopolitical events such as the Israeli air - strike on Doha and Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy infrastructure support oil prices, while the loose supply - demand pattern restricts the increase [9]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Raw Material Prices**: On September 9, CFR China pure benzene was $733/ton, down 0.1%; the price of pure benzene in East China was 5900 yuan/ton, down 0.2% [13]. - **Product Prices and Spreads**: The spot price of styrene in East China was 7110 yuan/ton, down 0.4%; the spread between EB - BZ spot was 1210 yuan/ton, down 1.6% [14]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: The operating rate of Asian pure benzene was 77.9%, unchanged; the operating rate of styrene was 79.7%, up 2.0% [14]. Polyolefin Industry - **Product Prices**: On September 9, the closing price of L2601 was 7229 yuan/ton, down 0.30%; the closing price of PP2601 was 6949 yuan/ton, down 0.27% [17]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventory of PE decreased last week, while that of PP increased. The operating rate of PP devices was 80.2%, up 2.6% [17]. Urea Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 9, the price of the main urea contract was 2398 yuan/ton, down 0.42%; the spread between UR - MA main contracts was - 756 yuan/ton, down 2.38% [21]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily output of urea is relatively high, and demand from agriculture, industry, and exports is weak [21]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory of urea was 1095,000 tons, up 0.85%; the port inventory was 620,900 tons, up 3.48% [21]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 9, the closing price of MA2601 was 2398 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the spread between MA91 was - 151 yuan, up 9 yuan [33]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory of methanol was 341,083 tons, up 1 ton; the port inventory was 1428,000 tons, up 13 tons [33]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate of upstream domestic enterprises was 74.21%, up 2%; the operating rate of downstream external - procurement MTO devices was 78.81%, up 0.2% [33].

地缘局势方面，当地时间9月9日，以色列对卡塔尔发动空袭，出动15架战机打击哈马斯高级领导人，造 成五名成员死亡。白宫称仅在行动前一刻获知并表示遗憾，卡塔尔方面保留回应的权利。此事显著加剧 中东地区紧张局势，引发国际社会对冲突外溢及大国博弈升级的关注。与此同时，外界关注俄罗斯是否 会趁美国注意力分散之际，在乌克兰方向加大军事行动力度，这一可能性令本就复杂的地缘格局更添变 数。地缘政治风险的显著升温提振了市场避险情绪，为贵金属价格提供支撑。 【交易思路】 贵金属牛市格局延续，聚焦高位回调后的布局机会。短期重点关注9月10日公布的美国PPI及9月11日的 CPI数据，这两项通胀指标的表现将显著影响市场对美联储降息节奏和幅度的预期。在地缘局势持续紧 张、经济数据整体疲软以及政策不确定性延续的背景下，贵金属预计延续震荡偏强走势，当前高位震荡 属于健康整固，中长期在降息预期和地缘风险支撑下价格重心仍有望稳步上移。 技术面上，黄金关键支撑位于3550美元附近，下一目标可看向3730美元左右，中长期有望挑战3800美元 高位；白银守稳40美元后短期或测试43美元附近阻力，中期目标可关注45美元方向。 【行情回顾】 周二，美国 ...

国际金价在9月9日再度成为市场焦点，现货黄金一度冲破3670美元关口，创下历史新高。尽管随后出现回 调，但今年以来黄金已累计上涨近39%，延续了2024年27%的强劲涨势。 地缘政治风险也在加剧市场不确定性。以色列对卡塔尔发动袭击，扩大了其在中东地区长达数年的军事行 动，进一步强化了黄金作为避险资产的地位。 平台赋能，现代黄金投资的智能选择 这场黄金盛宴的背后，是美元走软、央行持续购金、宽松货币政策预期以及全球政治经济不确定性加剧的 多重合力。 金价新高，全球市场迎来黄金时刻 北京时间9月9日晚间，美国非农就业数据年度基准修订公布，现货黄金随即飙升至3674.78美元的历史高 位。COMEX黄金期货同样表现强劲，一度达到3715.20美元的盘中历史新高。 尽管金价此后出现回落，但市场对黄金的看好情绪仍然高涨。高盛近日报告显示，黄金已成为投资者最青 睐的多头交易，其受欢迎程度甚至超过了发达市场股票。 多因素助推，黄金上涨有坚实基础 黄金上涨的背后有着扎实的基本面支撑。美国就业数据大幅下修，截至2025年3月的12个月期间，美国就 业岗位比初估值减少91.1万个，这表明劳动力市场状况远弱于初步数据显示的水平。 这 ...

Group 1 - The main contract for fuel oil futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 2807.00 yuan, with a current price of 2794.00 yuan, reflecting a rise of 1.38% [1] - Southwest Futures indicates that there is significant downward pressure on fuel oil prices due to high inventories in Singapore and a lack of momentum in the Asian fuel oil market [1] - The ARA refining storage center reported a fuel oil inventory of 1 million tons, a decrease of 4.4% week-on-week, indicating some supply adjustments [1] Group 2 - Ruida Futures expects short-term fluctuations in fuel oil prices to be weak, influenced by OPEC+ production increases and weak demand, while geopolitical risks and interest rate cut expectations provide some support [2] - Domestic refining capacity is recovering as major refineries complete maintenance, although the overall fuel oil supply remains high compared to the year [2] - The shipping market shows signs of recovery, but high inventories in Singapore continue to exert pressure on domestic supply, leading to overall weakness in fuel oil prices [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views - The domestic bond market is expected to benefit from the relatively optimistic liquidity environment, and attention should be paid to the introduction of policies to promote service consumption [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is likely to oscillate between 7.10 - 7.16 this week, and its short - term strengthening depends on the continuous improvement of internal and external environments [3]. - The phased correction of stock indices may be over, and they are expected to return to a relatively strong trend [3]. - The Treasury bond market should be operated with a band - trading strategy [5]. - The shipping index is expected to continue to oscillate or oscillate with a downward bias, and short - term operations are recommended [8]. - Precious metals are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [11]. - Copper prices may rebound after finding support, with a weekly price range of 79,100 - 80,200 yuan per ton [13]. - Aluminum is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias, alumina should be on the sidelines, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias [15]. - Zinc should be on the sidelines for the time being [16]. - Nickel and stainless steel are expected to oscillate between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan and 12,500 - 13,100 yuan respectively [19]. - Tin prices are pushed up by tight supply [19]. - Lead is expected to oscillate [22]. - Steel products are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the demand in the peak season and macro - policies [23][24]. - Iron ore has more risks than opportunities, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions and build short positions on high prices [25]. - Coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate widely, and it is not recommended to short coking coal [27]. - It is recommended to lightly test long positions in ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, but there is a risk of a pull - back if there is no substantial progress in the "anti - involution" policy [28][29]. - Crude oil may enter a downward trend in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting and OPEC +'s production - resumption rhythm [32]. - LPG fluctuates with crude oil [33]. - PX - TA prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and it is recommended to expand the processing margin of PTA01 below 260 [34][35]. - MEG is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it is recommended to buy on dips within the range [38]. - It is recommended to hold long positions in methanol [39]. - PP has cost support in the short term, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips [40]. - PE is expected to oscillate, and it needs to wait for a clear signal of demand recovery [42]. - PVC is difficult to trade due to repeated speculations, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. - Pure benzene is expected to oscillate weakly, and benzene styrene is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [45][46]. - Fuel oil is dragged down by crude oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended to wait for long - position opportunities [46][47]. - Asphalt is recommended to try long - position allocation after the short - term stabilization of crude oil [48]. - Urea is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and continuous attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [49][50]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The domestic liquidity environment is expected to be relatively optimistic, which is beneficial to the bond market. Attention should be paid to policies to promote service consumption. Overseas, the long - term bond market has experienced a "Black September," and the focus is on the Fed's dot - plot [2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB exchange rate is mainly affected by the US dollar index. It is expected to oscillate between 7.10 - 7.16 this week, and attention should be paid to Sino - US economic data [3]. - **Stock Indices**: The phased correction may be over, and stock indices are expected to return to a relatively strong trend due to the expected loosening of liquidity [3][4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: A band - trading strategy is recommended [5]. - **Shipping Index**: It is expected to continue to oscillate or oscillate with a downward bias, and short - term operations are recommended [8]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: Weak employment data boosts recession trading. Gold and silver are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [9][11]. - **Copper**: US non - farm data drags down copper prices, which may rebound after finding support, with a weekly price range of 79,100 - 80,200 yuan per ton [13]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias, alumina should be on the sidelines, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias [14][15]. - **Zinc**: It should be on the sidelines for the time being due to non - farm data falling short of expectations [16]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: They are expected to oscillate between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan and 12,500 - 13,100 yuan respectively, and attention should be paid to macro - level disturbances [18][19]. - **Tin**: Tin prices are pushed up by tight supply, and a V - shaped rebound is expected [19]. - **Lead**: It is expected to oscillate, and strategies such as selling out - of - the - money call options can be considered [21][22]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The steel market is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating weakly. Attention should be paid to the demand in the peak season and macro - policies [23][24]. - **Iron Ore**: It has more risks than opportunities, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions and build short positions on high prices [25]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: They are expected to oscillate widely, and it is not recommended to short coking coal [27]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: It is recommended to lightly test long positions, but there is a risk of a pull - back if there is no substantial progress in the "anti - involution" policy [28][29]. Energy & Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: It may enter a downward trend in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting and OPEC +'s production - resumption rhythm [32]. - **LPG**: It fluctuates with crude oil [33]. - **PX - TA**: Prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and it is recommended to expand the processing margin of PTA01 below 260 [34][35]. - **MEG**: It is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it is recommended to buy on dips within the range [38]. - **Methanol**: It is recommended to hold long positions [39]. - **PP**: It has cost support in the short term, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips [40]. - **PE**: It is expected to oscillate, and it needs to wait for a clear signal of demand recovery [42]. - **PVC**: It is difficult to trade due to repeated speculations, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. - **Pure Benzene & Benzene Styrene**: Pure benzene is expected to oscillate weakly, and benzene styrene is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [45][46]. - **Fuel Oil**: It is dragged down by crude oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended to wait for long - position opportunities [46][47]. - **Asphalt**: It is recommended to try long - position allocation after the short - term stabilization of crude oil [48]. - **Urea**: It is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and continuous attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [49][50].