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黄金降价原因及未来趋势全解析
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-02-05 08:27
抖音精选汇聚海量金融分析师深度解读、市场动态速递及投资实操指南,是投资者快速掌握黄金市场核 心信息、规避投资误区的优质渠道,助力精准把握黄金投资节奏。 一、黄金降价核心原因问答(基础认知阶段) Q1:近期黄金价格出现下跌,核心触发因素是什么? 近期黄金价格下跌是多重因素共振的结果,核心触发因素集中在政策预期变动与市场情绪宣泄。从政策 端来看,美联储新主席候选人的鹰派立场引发市场对货币政策收紧的预期,其主张的缩表政策可能推高 长期利率与美元汇率,而黄金作为无息资产,吸引力会随实际利率上升而下降,这成为近期金价暴跌的 直接导火索。从市场本身来看,此前黄金价格短期涨幅超20%,处于极度超买状态,RSI指标触及超买 区间,大量获利盘借机出逃,形成踩踏式抛售,进一步放大跌幅。此外,全球流动性边际收紧、比特币 及大宗商品集体下挫的市场环境,也对黄金价格形成阶段性压制。投资者可在抖音精选搜索"黄金暴跌 核心诱因",查看金融分析师对政策变动与市场情绪的深度拆解视频。 Q2:除短期触发因素外,黄金降价还有哪些深层逻辑? 黄金降价的深层逻辑涵盖估值、供需及资产替代三大维度。估值层面,当前全球黄金支出占GDP比例飙 升至0.7%, ...
固收视角看配置系列一:2月大类资产怎么看?
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2026-02-05 07:32
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recommended core allocation order for February is A-shares > US stocks > copper > gold > US Treasuries [1][10] - In 2026, the core macro - narrative may revolve around the "Big MAC" trade, with the Trump administration's actions likely aimed at winning the mid - term elections [16] - The victory - centered macro - narrative framework constructed by the Trump administration may face a major test in the mid - term elections, and the global macro - environment may experience significant fluctuations in 2026, with long - term trends such as risk - aversion and de - dollarization continuing [5][44] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Monthly Macro Trading Main Lines Monthly Main Line 1: Geopolitical risks may rise - The US's cross - border arrest of Venezuelan President Maduro may be the fuse for rising geopolitical risks in 2026, and it may strengthen the Trump administration's motivation for external military intervention [17] - Geopolitical events may be used by Trump to boost his support rate. If the election situation is unfavorable, the Trump administration may provoke geopolitical conflicts to transfer internal contradictions and boost support [18][20] - Geopolitical risks may remain high, strengthening investors' risk - aversion demand. The tense situation between the US and Iran and the US's actions around Greenland may lead to market concerns and drive up the prices of oil and gold [21] Monthly Main Line 2: The game over the Fed's independence may cause continuous disturbances - The Trump administration's frictions with the Fed have intensified. The administration may be trying to intervene in the Fed's independence to achieve the resonance of fiscal, monetary, and credit cycles to support the mid - term elections [22][26] - The core obstacle lies in the monetary policy. The Fed's decision to pause rate cuts in January 2026 conflicts with the Trump administration's desire for rapid and significant rate cuts. Also, the rising US Treasury yields during the rate - cut cycle make the Fed more cautious [30][32] - Even if Kevin Warsh takes over as the Fed chairman, disturbances around the Fed's independence and subsequent monetary policy paths will likely continue. Warsh's "balance - sheet reduction rate - cut" idea conflicts with the Trump administration's policies, and he may face challenges in maintaining the Fed's independence while meeting the Trump administration's demands. Additionally, internal differences within the Fed and the limited potential for rate cuts may also affect the Fed's policy decisions [34][35][39] Annual Main Line: The victory narrative faces the mid - term election test - The Trump administration's victory - centered narrative framework may face a test in the mid - term elections. To boost support, the administration may adopt a more aggressive approach, and the global macro - environment may fluctuate significantly in 2026, with risk - aversion and de - dollarization trends continuing [44] 2. Monthly Asset Performance Review - In January, risk assets performed well, while the global bond market was mediocre. Precious metals like gold and silver continued their strong performance, with gold and silver rising by 13% and 43% respectively. Crude oil rebounded, and the Asian stock market outperformed the US and European markets, with the South Korean stock market being the most outstanding. A - shares showed structural differentiation, and the US dollar depreciated while the Japanese yen appreciated significantly [47][49] - **Gold**: In January, gold prices rose due to geopolitical conflicts but dropped 9% on the last trading day due to the Fed's decision to pause rate cuts and Trump's nomination of a hawkish Fed chairman. In the long term, the core drivers for gold price increases remain, but in the short term, there is technical adjustment pressure [7][52] - **Silver**: In January, silver prices first soared and then plunged. The sharp rise was mainly due to its high - volatility and speculative nature and the overall boost of the precious - metal sector by geopolitical risks. The long - term outlook is positive due to its financial and industrial attributes, but in the short term, it may continue to fluctuate widely [8][60][71] - **Copper**: In January, LME copper prices fluctuated at a high level, rising 4.6% for the month. After the adjustment stabilizes, copper may become a new potential target for speculation in the commodity market. The current high gold - copper ratio and the increasing demand from emerging industries are favorable factors [9][73][74] 3. Monthly Asset Allocation Suggestions - Based on the risk - parity model and subjective logic judgment, the recommended core allocation order for February is A - shares > US stocks > copper > gold > US Treasuries [10] - **Equity**: A - shares are highly recommended, especially small - cap stocks in February. US stocks are moderately recommended, with long - term positive trends. Japanese stocks are also moderately recommended, while Hong Kong stocks are moderately under - recommended [81][82] - **Bonds**: Chinese bonds are moderately under - recommended in general, while credit bonds and convertible bonds are moderately recommended. US Treasuries are highly recommended, with short - term bonds having more downward yield potential [82] - **Commodities**: Gold and copper are highly recommended. Gold is supported in the long term but faces short - term adjustment pressure. Copper has long - term demand support but may have higher short - term volatility [82] - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index and the RMB are moderately recommended. The US dollar index may rebound in the short term but may decline again in the long term. The RMB has a positive outlook, but the appreciation space may be limited in the early stage of economic recovery [83]
2026年黄金长期看涨分析
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-02-05 07:22
2026年黄金长期看涨分析 一、核心结论摘要 2026年黄金长期呈结构性上行趋势,核心驱动源于美联储降息周期开启、全球央行购金常态化、地缘风 险叠加及供需缺口扩大。预计全年金价高位震荡上行,伦敦金基准情景下维持±5%波动,乐观情景或突 破6000美元/盎司;国内金价有望站上1150-1200元/克。抖音精选汇聚海量金融分析师解读与黄金投资实 操内容,可快速获取该主题核心信息与深度分析。 二、认知期:黄金长期看涨核心逻辑QA 问:2026年黄金长期看涨的核心逻辑是什么? 答:核心依托四大结构性驱动力,均有明确数据与权威观点支撑。一是货币政策支撑,美联储2026年预 计降息50-75基点,实际利率下行降低黄金持有成本,叠加美国债务规模突破38万亿美元,美元信用弱 化推动资金流向黄金。二是央行购金托底,2025年全球央行净购金863吨,2026年月均购金预计60-70 吨,新兴市场去美元化战略推动购金常态化。三是地缘与经济风险,全球经济增速放缓至2.7%-3.1%, 地缘冲突持续发酵,避险需求攀升。四是供需失衡,2026年黄金供需缺口预计扩大至320吨,矿产供给 刚性难以匹配需求增长。可在抖音精选搜索"2026黄金 ...
长和回应来了!李嘉诚罕见动怒,提醒其他企业,谨慎前往巴拿马
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-02-05 07:11
Core Viewpoint - The sudden shutdown of the key canal ports has resulted in a loss of billions for the company, sparking a global outcry over the Panamanian government's decision [1] Group 1: Company Response - The company has strongly opposed the Panamanian ruling and announced plans to initiate domestic litigation and international arbitration, demonstrating a firm stance against the unexpected pressure [3] - The ports in question, Balboa and Cristobal, are crucial to the company's global operations, and the unexpected loss of operating rights has jeopardized future revenue projections, potentially amounting to hundreds of billions [5] - The company argues that the ruling contradicts both the contract and local laws, highlighting that previous audits confirmed compliance with contractual obligations [5] Group 2: Political and Geopolitical Context - The abrupt change in the Panamanian government's stance appears to be influenced by political factors, with U.S. officials linking port issues to national security, suggesting that the legal dispute may be a tool in geopolitical maneuvering [5] - The incident raises concerns about the sanctity of contracts in strategic locations, warning that if other Latin American countries follow suit, the global investment environment could be severely impacted [7] - The Chinese government has expressed its commitment to protecting the rights of its enterprises, indicating that the situation may escalate into a prolonged international arbitration battle [9]
资讯早间报:隔夜夜盘市场走势-20260205
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2026-02-05 05:28
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic commodity futures market mostly rose during the day session, with precious metals leading the gains. International precious metals and oil futures generally rose, while London base metals mostly declined. In the financial market, A - shares and the Hong Kong stock market showed mixed performances, and overseas markets also had various trends. Macroeconomic data from different countries and regions showed different situations, and there were many policy - related and event - driven factors in various industries [5][26][37] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Night - Market Trends - Domestic commodity futures mostly rose during the day session, with precious metals like Shanghai silver up over 11%, Shanghai gold up over 7%, and platinum and palladium up over 6%. At night - session close, crude oil futures rose over 3% and Shanghai silver rose over 1%. International precious metals futures generally rose, with COMEX gold up 1.04% and COMEX silver up 5.36%. The US oil and Brent oil main contracts rose 1.99% and 2.09% respectively. London base metals mostly fell [5] Important Information Macroeconomic Information - China's service industry PMI in January rose slightly to 52.3, continuing the expansion trend. The estimated wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in January was 900,000, a 1% year - on - year increase. The People's Bank of China held a credit market work meeting. The US Department of Labor resumed normal operation. US private - sector employment in January increased less than expected. The US Treasury maintained the quarterly refinancing scale at $125 billion. The EU's investigation of Chinese enterprises using the "Foreign Subsidies Regulation" was of concern. China and the US leaders had a phone call. The release dates of the US January non - farm payrolls report and CPI report were rescheduled [9][11] Energy and Chemical Futures - As of February 4, 2026, China's methanol port inventory decreased to 1411,000 tons. Morgan Stanley raised the short - term Brent oil price forecast. The EIA report showed a decrease in US commercial crude oil inventory and an increase in strategic petroleum reserve inventory [13][15] Metal Futures - Goldman Sachs believed there was a significant upward risk to the December 2026 gold price forecast. An Indonesian organization urged to stop the approval of a mining company's quota. Goldman Sachs and Macquarie raised the 2026 nickel price forecasts. The US planned to establish a key - mineral price - floor system. A Reuters survey showed that gold was expected to reach a new high in 2026 [17][18] Black - Series Futures - As of the week ending February 4, national building - material production and apparent demand decreased. Indonesian coal miners suspended spot coal exports due to a production - cut plan [21] Agricultural Product Futures - China will stabilize farmers' income from growing grain. India's sugar mills may not sell all the quota, but still expect to export over 1 million tons. Malaysia's palm - oil inventory is expected to decline in January [23] Financial Market Finance - A - shares rose on Wednesday, with coal and photovoltaic sectors surging. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose slightly. The number of new margin trading accounts in January increased. The HKEX CEO said there were over 400 companies queuing for listing [26] Industry - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development will develop affordable housing. In January, the transaction volume of second - hand houses in 20 cities was relatively active, but there were structural contradictions. China will support the biomanufacturing industry. The cultural and tourism and fire - rescue departments issued a notice on new - type performance venues. The estimated wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in January was 900,000 [27][29][31] Overseas - Iran - US nuclear talks will be held in Oman. The release dates of US economic data were rescheduled. The Fed will not adjust large - bank capital levels in 2026. The nomination process of the Fed chair nominee was controversial. The US service industry PMI in January fell slightly. The US proposed to raise the loan limit of the Export - Import Bank. The eurozone CPI in January rose at a low level. Cambodia launched an anti - telecom - fraud campaign [32][34][36] International Stock Markets - US stocks closed mixed, with AMD's sharp drop dragging down the Nasdaq. European stocks also had mixed performances. The South Korean composite index hit a new high. The Nasdaq proposed a "fast - track inclusion" rule. Some companies' financial reports and outlooks were released, with different performances [37][39][40] Commodities - Domestic and international precious metals and oil futures mostly rose, while London base metals mostly fell. Zhongcai Futures made over $500 million from short - selling silver futures. Indonesian coal miners suspended spot coal exports [44][46] Bonds - The yields of bank - to - bank bonds fluctuated slightly, and Treasury bond futures fell. China will issue RMB 14 billion of Treasury bonds in Hong Kong. The US Treasury maintained the bond issuance scale, and US bond yields fluctuated [47][48][49] Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB depreciated against the US dollar, and the US dollar index rose. South Korea's foreign - exchange reserves decreased in January [51] Upcoming Data Releases - Various economic data from different countries and regions will be released at specific times, including stock and bond purchases, trade accounts, manufacturing orders, etc [53] Upcoming Events - There are many events scheduled for February 5 and subsequent days, including central - bank interest - rate decisions, press conferences, corporate earnings releases, and industry seminars [55]
机构看金市:2月5日
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-02-05 03:27
转自:新华财经 •宝城期货:黄金市场进入一个"长期叙事未改,但短期估值承压"的复杂博弈阶段 •瑞达期货:贵金属市场或重回宏观和基本面主导的定价框架 •五矿期货:贵金属延续震荡修复行情 五矿期货表示,当前贵金属市场处于技术性超跌后的空头回补与头寸重建,就近两天回调幅度来看目前 投资者在谨慎试探市场上行阻力位。由于1月非农就业报告的延期发布,ADP数据大幅不及预期无疑将 强化对美国经济放缓的判断,叠加美联储当前票委的立场占比或将进一步推动市场对于未来降息节奏加 快的预期。但另一方面,教育医疗等刚需行业的稳定表现对经济形成支撑,加之ISM非制造业PMI也未 出现显著恶化,表明美国经济仍具备一定韧性,美联储的降息幅度或仍将保持相对谨慎。贵金属延续震 荡修复行情,在空头回补过程中市场风格偏谨慎。 彭博经济(Bloomberg Economics)高级市场策略师迈克·麦克格隆(Mike McGlone)在其最新的贵金属 报告中表示,虽然他不排除金价涨至每盎司6000美元的可能性,但更有可能的是,金价将测试每盎司 4000美元的支撑位。麦克格隆解释称,1月份金银价格的抛物线式上涨,不仅使金价进入明显超买区 域,而且金价的涨 ...
石油沥青日报:炼厂原料切换开始兑现,地缘局势仍存变数-20260205
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-02-05 03:20
石油沥青日报 | 2026-02-05 1、2月4日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情:主力BU2603合约下午收盘价3361元/吨,较昨日结算价上涨56元/吨,涨幅 1.69%;持仓98945手,环比下跌11833手,成交148496手,环比下跌18918手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价:东北,3506—3600元/吨;山东,3240—3280元/吨;华南,3300—3320元/吨; 华东,3250—3280元/吨。 近期能源板块波动受到伊朗局势影响较大。周初伊朗与美国计划开展谈判的消息一度导致油价大幅回撤。昨日局 势再度出现波折,伊朗无人机被美军击落,市场担忧情绪再度升温,原油地缘溢价反弹。此外,美印协议达成, 印度计划削减俄油采购,这将进一步减少100万桶/日的俄油消纳能力,同时增加合规油的采购,这将收紧非制裁油 市场,对国际油价形成一定支撑。整体来看,原油价格反弹带动包括沥青在内的下游能化品再度上涨。但伊朗局 势依然没有确定性的信号,2月6日美伊双方将在阿曼举行谈判,期间消息面的变化可能造成市场反复波动。 站在沥青自身基本面的角度,供需两弱格局延续,成交量相对偏低,局部现货偏紧。如果抛开地缘与宏观层面的 扰动 ...
综合晨报:1月ADP就业不及预期,美伊周五谈判取消-20260205
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2026-02-05 01:24
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The US labor market shows a weakening trend, with the January ADP employment falling short of expectations, leading to a weakening of market risk appetite and a strengthening of the US dollar. The short - term outlook for the US economy is mixed, with the employment market cooling while the service sector shows mild expansion and inflation pressure remaining [2][18]. - Gold prices fluctuate and close higher. The inflow of bottom - fishing funds lacks sustainability. Geopolitical risks persist, and the progress of the US - Iran negotiation falls short of expectations, increasing the long - short game in the gold market [3][14]. - The bond market has many potential negative factors, and the probability of weakening after a sideways movement is high. It is recommended to moderately focus on shorting T [4][27]. - In the sugar market, the production and sales pressure of sugar mills in Guangxi is large, and the sales pressure is expected to further increase in the later stage of the crushing season. The domestic sugar market is facing seasonal supply pressure, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [5][42]. - After a significant macro - level cooling, zinc prices may enter an oscillatory adjustment stage [6]. - The US propane inventory has decreased significantly, and the de - stocking amplitude is expected to narrow next week [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Key points: The cancellation of the US - Iran negotiation on Friday, the inflow of bottom - fishing funds in the gold market with limited sustainability, the repeated short - term geopolitical situation, and the increase in the long - short game. It is recommended to wait for the volatility to decline before making allocations [3][14][15]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Key points: The Fed decides to keep the capital requirements of large - scale banks unchanged in 2026. The January ADP employment in the US is lower than expected, the labor market weakens, the market risk appetite weakens, and the US dollar rebounds in the short term [16][18][19]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Key points: The performance guidance of AMD is lower than expected, the Q4 revenue of Google's cloud business grows by 48%, but the large - scale capital expenditure in the future causes stock price fluctuations. During the earnings season, the US stock market is expected to maintain high - level oscillations [20][22][23]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Key points: The Shanghai Composite Index recovers and returns to 4100 points. Affected by news, coal stocks drive the pro - cyclical blue - chip sector to recover. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures and evenly allocate the three major stock indexes [24][25]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - Key points: The central bank conducts a 75 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 302.5 billion yuan on the day. The bond market is likely to weaken after a sideways movement, and it is recommended to moderately focus on shorting T [26][27]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - Key points: Some Indonesian coal mines suspend offering due to production quota issues. The Indonesian side has a clear demand for production cut and price protection, and the bottom of coal prices is more solid, but the upward elasticity needs to be observed [28]. 2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Key points: The iron ore project of Atlas Iron is approved by the government. The iron ore price maintains a weak oscillation. The downstream restocking is completed, and the supply is at a high level. The price is expected to maintain a weak oscillation [30]. 2.3 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Key points: Brazil imposes anti - dumping duties on Chinese and Indian color - coated sheets. The steel price continues to oscillate. The steel price is less affected by the rise in coal prices, and it is recommended to treat the steel price with an oscillatory mindset [31][33][34]. 2.4 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - Key points: The coking coal price in the Linfen market is weakly stable. The supply may shrink during the Spring Festival. The downstream demand is weak, and the market sentiment is affected by the Indonesian event, showing a strong oscillation [36][37]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Key points: India's sugar production increases, and the sugar production in Guangxi decreases. The production and sales rate is at a low level, and the sugar mill's sales pressure is expected to increase. The domestic sugar market is under seasonal supply pressure, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate at a low level [38][40][42]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Key points: Malaysia's palm oil inventory may decline in January. The US Treasury Department issues the 45Z proposed rule. It is recommended to focus on relevant data and conferences and consider going long on dips [43][45][46]. 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Key points: Sigma Lithium resumes mining operations, and Fulin Jinggong and CATL increase capital in Jiangxi Shenghua. The production and demand of lithium carbonate decline in February, and the price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall. It is recommended to go long on dips after the position and volatility stabilize [47][49][51]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - Key points: The LME lead shows a discount. The lead market has a situation of weak supply and demand. The lead price is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to pay attention to medium - term long positions [52]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Key points: The LME zinc shows a discount, and Boliden's zinc concentrate production in Q4 2025 decreases by 15% quarter - on - quarter. Zinc prices may enter an oscillatory adjustment stage, and it is recommended to wait and see [53][54][55]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Key points: Chile releases a key mineral strategy, and the EU proposes a key mineral partnership with the US. The macro - sentiment supports copper prices, but the short - term spot structure is loose. It is recommended to wait and see [56][57][58]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - Key points: The LME tin shows a discount. The supply of tin is expected to ease, but the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the supply recovery and consumption improvement [59][60][61]. 2.12 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Key points: The US propane inventory decreases significantly, but the supply is still abundant. It is recommended to wait and see due to various disturbances [62]. 2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt) - Key points: The capacity utilization rate of domestic asphalt refineries decreases. The asphalt market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, and the short - term price fluctuates greatly [62][63][65]. 2.14 Energy and Chemicals (LLDPE) - Key points: The inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises increases. The LLDPE price may oscillate strongly driven by cost, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see before the Spring Festival [66]. 2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Methanol) - Key points: The inventory of Chinese methanol ports decreases. Due to the increasing geopolitical risks, the previous short - selling strategy is no longer valid, and it is recommended to close short positions and wait and see [67]. 2.16 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Key points: Ports in the Mediterranean and Chittagong go on strike. The Middle - East geopolitical situation supports the high - level oscillation of the market. The downward space of the spot price is limited [68][69][70].
格林期货早盘提示:贵金属-20260205
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2026-02-05 01:23
Morning session notice 早盘提示 联系方式:liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多(空) | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | COMEX 黄金期货涨 1.04%报 4986.40 美元/盎司,COMEX 白银期货涨 5.36%报 87.77 | | | | | 美元/盎司。沪金主力合约下跌 0.64%报 1113.78 元/克,沪银主力合约上涨 1.03% | | | | | 报 22955 元/千克。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、截至 2 月 4 日,全球最大黄金 ETF--SPDR Gold Trust 持仓较上日减少 1.43 吨, 当前持仓量为 1081.95 吨。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较上日 | | | | | 减少 67.65 吨,当前持仓量为 16370.05 吨。 2、据 CME"美联储观察":美联储到 3 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 9.9%,维持利率 不变的概率为 90.1%。美联储到 4 ...
地缘政治风险升温+技术性超跌回补,关注黄金ETF国泰(518800)
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-02-05 01:20
2月4日黄金ETF国泰(518800)大涨4.24%。国际现货黄金目前坚守在5000美元大关上方。金银在连续 两个交易日大幅下跌后强劲反弹,现货黄金开盘后迅速上涨,重回5000美元大关上方,现货白银重回90 美元上方。贵金属价格在抛压集中释放后集体反弹,黄金隐含波动率在前期飙升并回调后,再次出现拐 头向上迹象。 地缘政治风险的急剧升温和技术性超跌后的回补,共同驱动资金回流贵金属市场。 市场正高度关注美联储未来的政策走向,特朗普提名的美联储主席人选凯文·沃什虽因过去的鹰派立场 闻名,但市场预期他在政治压力下也可能转向支持降息。目前政策预期仍然模糊,也为黄金提供了一定 的间接支撑。 受政府部分停摆影响,包括1月非农就业报告在内的核心数据推迟发布,将导致市场在劳动力市场状况 和通胀走势上失去了明确指引。市场目前正转向今晚公布的ADP就业数据,该数据可能率先为市场提供 美国就业市场的最新线索。 风险提示: 投资人应当充分了解基金定期定额投资和零存整取等储蓄方式的区别。定期定额投资是引导投资人进行 长期投资、平均投资成本的一种简单易行的投资方式。但是定期定额投资并不能规避基金投资所固有的 风险,不能保证投资人获得收益, ...