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瑞达期货锰硅硅铁产业日报-20250610
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 09:01
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On June 10, the SM2509 contract closed at 5,542 yuan/ton, down 0.18%, and the Inner Mongolia silicon-manganese spot was reported at 5,450 yuan/ton. For the first five months of 2025, China's goods trade imports and exports increased by 2.5% year-on-year, with exports of 10.67 trillion yuan, up 7.2%, and imports of 7.27 trillion yuan, down 3.8%. Fundamentally, manufacturers' production cuts have led to the operating rate reaching a low level in the same period, but the overall inventory is still relatively high. In terms of cost, the port inventory of imported manganese ore at the raw material end increased by 132,000 tons this period, the downstream hot metal output peaked and declined, and the raw material coal prices rose significantly, improving the pessimistic sentiment. In terms of profit, the spot profit in Inner Mongolia is -180 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia it is -370 yuan/ton. In the market, steel mills are cautious in procurement, and the tender prices continue to decline. Technically, the 4-hour cycle K-line is below the 20 and 60 moving averages, and the operation should be treated as a volatile market [2]. - On June 10, the SF2509 contract closed at 5,174 yuan/ton, up 0.27%, and the Ningxia ferrosilicon spot was reported at 5,170 yuan/ton. In May, the PPI decreased by 3.3% year-on-year, with the decline rate 0.6 percentage points larger than the previous month. Among them, the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry decreased by 10.2% year-on-year in May, with the decline rate 1.6 percentage points larger than the previous month. In terms of demand, the current production profit of ferroalloys is negative, the settlement electricity price in Ningxia has been lowered, weakening the cost support, and the overall demand expectation for steel is still weak. Attention should be paid to the market sentiment disturbance under the change of tariff policies. In terms of profit, the spot profit in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia is -330 yuan/ton. Technically, the 4-hour cycle K-line is below the 20 and 60 moving averages, and the operation should be treated as a volatile market [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM主力合约收盘价为5,542元/吨,较前一日下跌10元;SF主力合约收盘价为5,174元/吨,与前一日持平 [2]。 - SM期货合约持仓量为648,759手,较前一日增加4,965手;SF期货合约持仓量为456,759手,较前一日减少13,260手 [2]。 - 锰硅前20名净持仓为 -30,777手,较前一日减少390手;硅铁前20名净持仓为 -15,948手,较前一日减少1,107手 [2]。 - SM1 - 9月合约价差为28元/吨,较前一日减少4元;SF1 - 9月合约价差为 -12元/吨,较前一日减少8元 [2]。 - SM仓单为100,048张,较前一日减少717张;SF仓单为15,415张,较前一日减少47张 [2]。 3.2 Spot Market - 内蒙古锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5,450元/吨,与前一日持平;内蒙古硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,260元/吨,与前一日持平 [2]。 - 贵州锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5,500元/吨,与前一日持平;青海硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,110元/吨,与前一日持平 [2]。 - 云南锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5,450元/吨,较前一日下跌50元;宁夏硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,170元/吨,与前一日持平 [2]。 - 锰硅指数均值为5,411元/吨,较前一周下跌104元;SF主力合约基差为 -4元/吨,与前一日持平 [2]。 - SM主力合约基差为 -92元/吨,较前一日增加10元 [2]。 3.3 Upstream Situation - 南非矿:Mn38块:天津港价格为31元/吨度,与前一日持平;硅石(98%,西北)价格为210元/吨,与前一日持平 [2]。 - 内蒙古乌海二级冶金焦价格为900元/吨,较前一日下跌70元;兰炭(中料,神木)价格为640元/吨,与前一日持平 [2]。 - 锰矿港口库存为420.3万吨,较前一周增加13.3万吨 [2]。 3.4 Industry Situation - 锰硅企业开工率为35.03%,较前一周增加0.26个百分点;硅铁企业开工率为32.78%,较前一周增加2.34个百分点 [2]。 - 锰硅供应为171,885吨,较前一周增加1,960吨;硅铁供应为97,300吨,较前一周增加12,400吨 [2]。 - 锰硅厂家库存为186,600吨,较前半月减少14,500吨;硅铁厂家库存为6.77万吨,较前半月减少0.74万吨 [2]。 - 锰硅全国钢厂库存为15.15天,较前一月减少0.29天;硅铁全国钢厂库存为15.20天,较前一月减少0.24天 [2]。 - 五大钢种锰硅需求为125,793吨,较前一周减少1,093吨;五大钢种硅铁需求为20,324.7吨,较前一周减少249.8吨 [2]。 3.5 Downstream Situation - 247家钢厂高炉开工率为83.54%,较前一周减少0.35个百分点;247家钢厂高炉产能利用率为90.63%,较前一周减少0.04个百分点 [2]。 - 粗钢产量为8,601.9万吨,较前一月减少682.24万吨 [2]。 3.6 Industry News - 国务院总理李强主持以“深化科技成果转化机制改革,推动科技创新和产业创新融合发展”为主题的第十四次专题学习,着力破解科技成果转化瓶颈,提高转化效能,促进创新发展,坚持有效市场和有为政府相结合,完善支持政策和市场服务 [2]。 - 5月,CPI同比下降0.1%,环比下降0.2%,其中食品价格下降0.2%,猪肉价格同比上涨3.1%,影响CPI上涨约0.04个百分点;PPI同比下降3.3%,环比下降0.4% [2]。 - 前5个月,我国货物贸易进出口总值17.94万亿元,其中出口10.67万亿元,增长7.2%;进口7.27万亿元,下降3.8%。东盟、欧盟、美国为我国前三大贸易伙伴,贸易总值分别为3.02万亿元、2.3万亿元、1.72万亿元,分别增长9.1%、2.9%、下降8.1%。我国对共建“一带一路”国家合计进出口9.24万亿元,增长4.2% [2]。
新世纪期货交易提示(2025-6-10)-20250610
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 07:00
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Rebound and short [2] - Coking coal and coke: Rebound [2] - Rebar: Volatile [2] - Glass: Rebound [2] - Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index Futures/Options: Volatile [2][4] - Shanghai 50 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [2][4] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Upward [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Upward [4] - 2 - year Treasury Bond: Volatile [4] - 5 - year Treasury Bond: Volatile [4] - 10 - year Treasury Bond: Rebound [4] - Gold: High - level volatile [4] - Silver: Strong - side volatile [4] - Pulp: Weak - side volatile [6] - Logs: Volatile [6] - Edible oils: Weak - side volatile [6] - Meal products: Rebound [6] - Live pigs: Volatile [8] - Rubber: Volatile [8] - PX: On - the - fence [8][10] - PTA: Try shorting at high prices [10] - MEG: On - the - fence [10] - PR: On - the - fence [10] - PF: On - the - fence [10] Core Viewpoints - The overall supply - demand relationship in the black - series commodities market is gradually loosening, with the iron ore market facing the impact of reduced demand and increased tariffs, and the coking coal and coke markets suffering from high supply and weak demand [2]. - The real - estate market remains in an adjustment period, which restricts the demand for glass [2]. - The stock index shows a certain degree of differentiation, and the market sentiment is affected by economic data and policies [4]. - The price of gold is influenced by multiple factors such as central - bank gold purchases, inflation, and trade policies [4]. - The pulp market is under pressure due to cost reduction and weak demand [6]. - The supply of logs is expected to decrease, while the demand remains relatively stable [6]. - The edible - oil market is in a weak - side volatile state due to factors such as production increase and seasonal consumption [6]. - The meal - product market is expected to rebound, affected by weather conditions and supply - demand relationships [6]. - The live - pig market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to remain weakly volatile [8]. - The rubber market presents a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the price lacks strong upward momentum [8]. - The polyester - related product markets have different supply - demand situations, and the prices are affected by cost and downstream demand [8][10]. Summary by Categories Black - Series Commodities - **Iron ore**: The global iron - ore shipping volume has rebounded, but the iron - water production has declined for four consecutive weeks, and the supply - demand relationship is gradually loosening. The port inventory is still decreasing, but attention should be paid to the continuous decline of iron - water production. Trump's tariff increase has a negative impact on the market. It is recommended to hold short positions and add positions during emotional rebounds [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Some coal mines have stopped or reduced production, but the high - supply and weak - demand pattern is difficult to change. The coke enterprises' profits will be compressed, and the inventory pressure is increasing. The market mainly follows the trend of finished products [2]. - **Rebar**: Trump's tariff increase has weakened the market sentiment. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is poor. The total inventory of steel products is decreasing, but the decline has slowed down. The price is likely to fall rather than rise [2]. Building Materials - **Glass**: The fundamentals lack positive factors, and the price has rebounded due to environmental - protection restrictions. The production capacity utilization rate has increased, and the inventory has decreased for the first time in two months. In the long term, the demand is difficult to recover significantly due to the adjustment of the real - estate industry [2]. Financial Futures - **Stock index futures/options**: The performance of different stock indexes varies. The market is affected by economic data such as CPI and PPI, and it is recommended to hold long positions [4]. - **Treasury bonds**: The market interest rate is consolidating, and the Treasury - bond price has a narrow - range rebound. It is recommended to hold long positions with a light position [4]. Precious Metals - **Gold and silver**: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and it is affected by central - bank gold purchases, inflation, and trade policies. The short - term price is affected by factors such as the US non - farm data and tariff policies. Attention should be paid to economic data and trade negotiations [4]. Forestry Products - **Pulp**: The cost support for pulp prices has weakened, and the demand has entered the off - season. It is expected to be weakly volatile [6]. - **Logs**: The demand is relatively stable, and the supply is expected to decrease. The price is expected to be volatile [6]. Agricultural Products - **Edible oils**: The Southeast Asian palm - oil production is in an increasing cycle, and the domestic edible - oil market is affected by factors such as production increase and seasonal consumption. It is expected to be weakly volatile [6]. - **Meal products**: The meal - product market is expected to rebound, affected by weather conditions and supply - demand relationships. Attention should be paid to weather and supply - arrival situations [6]. - **Live pigs**: The live - pig market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to remain weakly volatile with limited downward space [8]. - **Rubber**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand has decreased. The price lacks strong upward momentum [8]. Chemical Products - **PX**: The supply has increased, and the demand is affected by polyester production reduction. The price follows the trend of oil prices, and the PXN spread still has support [8][10]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand relationship has weakened, and the spot price follows the cost - end to fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the changes in polyester devices [10]. - **MEG**: The short - to - medium - term supply - demand structure is good, and the price is supported. Attention should be paid to the change in polyester load [10]. - **PR**: The raw - material support is weak, and the market is adjusted weakly and steadily [10]. - **PF**: The market is expected to be sorted warmly under the game of multiple factors [10].
5月通胀数据点评:能源价格拖累物价表现
Mai Gao Zheng Quan· 2025-06-10 05:25
Inflation Data Summary - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and recorded -0.1% year-on-year, remaining in the negative growth range[2] - Core CPI remained flat month-on-month and increased by 0.6% year-on-year, indicating the effectiveness of consumption-boosting policies[2] - Food prices fell by 0.4% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.2%[2] - Seasonal vegetable supply increased, leading to a 5.9% drop in fresh vegetable prices, while fresh fruit prices rose by 3.3% due to supply constraints[13] Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - The PPI continued to decline, recording -3.3% year-on-year and -0.4% month-on-month[3] - International commodity prices fell sharply, impacting sectors like oil and gas extraction, which saw a price drop of 5.6%[20] - Consumer goods prices showed some recovery, with clothing and durable goods prices increasing by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively[20] - New energy sectors like photovoltaics and lithium batteries experienced a narrowing of price declines, with reductions of -12.1% and -5.0% respectively[21] Economic Outlook - Overall inflation data indicates a low operating level, with both CPI and PPI in negative growth ranges, reflecting insufficient effective demand in the economy[23] - Despite short-term pressure from food and energy prices, core CPI stabilization and structural improvements suggest that policy measures are gradually taking effect[23] - The monetary policy is expected to remain flexible and appropriate, potentially utilizing tools like reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions to stabilize domestic demand and market expectations[5]
新能源及有色金属日报:钢厂价格下调,不锈钢盘面创新低-20250610
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 05:23
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - For the nickel variety, the supply shortage of nickel ore in Indonesia persists, and prices remain stable with strong cost support. However, the oversupply of refined nickel remains unchanged. It is expected to experience a weak oscillation in the near term, and the mid - to long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging [3]. - For the stainless - steel variety, despite steel mill production cuts, overall demand is sluggish, leading to inventory accumulation. It is expected to oscillate downward in the near term, and the mid - to long - term strategy is also to sell on rallies for hedging [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On June 9, 2025, the main contract 2507 of Shanghai nickel opened at 122,280 yuan/ton and closed at 122,710 yuan/ton, a 0.47% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 115,890 lots, and the open interest was 76,246 lots [1]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel rose rapidly in the night session, then oscillated and fell back to near the previous day's closing price. In the day session, it oscillated up to near the night - session high and then slightly declined, closing with a medium - sized positive candle. The trading volume increased, and the open interest decreased compared to the previous trading day [2]. - The shipping efficiency of the Surigao mining area in the Philippines has recovered well. Iron plants have implemented production cuts due to losses, weakening the demand for nickel ore. In Indonesia, the nickel ore supply shortage in the Sulawesi nickel mining area persists due to rainfall. The domestic trade benchmark price in June (Phase I) dropped by about $0.02, with a premium of +26 - 28, and the overall price was basically flat month - on - month [2][3][4]. - China's estimated refined nickel output in June is 37,345 tons, a 3.75% increase month - on - month. In the spot market, the morning quotation of Jinchuan nickel increased by about 500 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, while the quotations of mainstream brands decreased. The refined nickel spot trading was average, with the oversupply situation remaining unchanged but strong cost support at the bottom [2]. - The previous day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 21,192 (35.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 199,092 (- 1,014) tons [2]. Strategy - Short - term: Range - bound operation. - Mid - to long - term: Sell on rallies for hedging. There are no specific strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3]. Stainless - steel Variety Market Analysis - On June 9, 2025, the main contract 2507 of stainless steel opened at 12,715 yuan/ton and closed at 12,655 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 107,364 lots, and the open interest was 146,067 lots [3]. - The main contract of stainless steel oscillated and fell to the previous low after a slight consolidation in the night session. In the day session, it dropped rapidly to a new low and then rebounded slightly, closing with a medium - sized negative candle. The trading volume and open interest increased compared to the previous trading day [3]. - Similar to the nickel situation, the shipping efficiency of the Surigao mining area in the Philippines has recovered well. Iron plants have cut production due to losses, weakening the demand for nickel ore. The nickel ore supply shortage in the Sulawesi nickel mining area in Indonesia persists due to rainfall [3][4]. - The domestic trade benchmark price in June (Phase I) dropped by about $0.02, with a premium of +26 - 28, and the overall price was basically flat month - on - month. The high - nickel iron price is 950 - 960 yuan/nickel, and some Indonesian iron plants have switched to high - grade nickel matte production [4]. - In the spot market, the stainless - steel futures price dropped slightly. The price limit of Tsingshan 304 hot - and cold - rolled products was lowered by 100 yuan, and traders' cold - rolled prices followed suit. The market had rigid demand for purchases, and the trading of low - price resources was average. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,050 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was also 13,050 yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 465 - 665 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 949.0 yuan/nickel point [4]. Strategy - Short - term: Neutral. - Mid - to long - term: Sell on rallies for hedging. There are no specific strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [4].
国元证券每日热点-20250610
Guoyuan Securities2· 2025-06-10 05:13
2025 年 6 月 10 日星期二 【实时热点】 【美国债市】 2 年期美债收益率跌 4.15 个基点报 3.993% 资料来源:BLOOMBERG、AASTOCKS、WIND、格隆汇、国元证券经纪(香港)整理 请务必阅读免责条款 证 券 研 1 【经济数据】 究 报 告 美国会预算办公室:美国可能会在 8 月中旬用尽避免债务触 及上限的措施 美联储调查:5 月消费者通胀预期全面下降,为 2024 年来 首次 日本修正后 GDP 萎缩收窄至 0.2% 中国对沙特等 4 国试行免签政策 中国 5 月 CPI 同比降 0.1%,PPI 同比降幅扩大至 3.3% 海关总署:前 5 个月货物贸易进出口同比增长 2.5% 5 月全国乘用车市场零售 196 万辆,同比增 13.9% 英国金融监管机构与英伟达达成合作,为银行 AI 实验提供 安全沙盒 亚马逊拟在宾夕法尼亚州投资 200 亿美元用于 AI 和云计算 星巴克中国将发力非咖啡饮品市场 5 年期美债收益率跌 4.39 个基点报 4.079% 10 年期美债收益率跌 3.18 个基点报 4.474% 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25, ...
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:观点与策略-20250610
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 02:32
2025年06月10日 期货研究 商 品 研 究 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金:非农小幅超预期 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银:技术突破 | 3 | | 铜:伦铜现货走强,支撑价格 | 5 | | 铝:横盘震荡 | 7 | | 氧化铝:继续下行 | 7 | | 锌:社库累库,价格承压下行 | 9 | | 铅:短期供需双弱,中期偏多 | 10 | | 锡:止跌回升 | 11 | | 镍:现实支撑与弱势预期博弈,镍价震荡运行 | 13 | | 不锈钢:负反馈传导减产增加,钢价区间震荡 | 13 | | 碳酸锂:矿价企稳,偏弱震荡延续 | 15 | | 工业硅:上行空间有限,以逢高空配为主 | 17 | | 多晶硅:盘面以空配为主 | 17 | | 铁矿石:震荡反复 | 19 | | 螺纹钢:需求预期走弱,低位震荡 | 20 | | 热轧卷板:需求预期走弱,低位震荡 | 20 | | 硅铁:宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅:宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭:宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 焦煤:宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 动力煤:需求仍待释放,宽幅震荡 | 26 | | 原木:震荡反 ...
摩根士丹利:中国经济-稳定的核心价格掩盖了潜在压力
摩根· 2025-06-10 02:16
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Core CPI showed a modest improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 0.1 percentage points to 0.6% and a month-on-month improvement to 1.2% SAAR, indicating a recovery since the policy pivot in September 2024 [2] - PPI deflation pressures continue, with a month-on-month decline of 0.4% for three consecutive months, leading to a year-on-year decrease of 3.3% [3] - Weak energy prices have significantly impacted both headline CPI and PPI over the past three months, while core prices remain resilient due to targeted policies [6] Summary by Sections Consumer Price Index (CPI) - In May 2025, the CPI year-on-year was -0.1%, with food prices down by 0.4% and non-food prices stable at 0.0% [5] - Core CPI (excluding food and energy) was at 0.6%, reflecting a slight increase from previous months [5] Producer Price Index (PPI) - The PPI year-on-year was reported at -3.3%, with notable declines in producer goods (-4.0%) and mining and quarrying (-11.9%) [5] - Durable goods prices turned positive month-on-month, driven by the automotive sector, although this may not fully reflect recent price cuts [3][5] Key Drivers - The resilience in core prices is attributed to targeted policies such as the consumer goods trade-in program, while a supply-demand imbalance persists [6] - The renewed competition in the automotive sector may not have been adequately captured in the current readings, indicating potential volatility in future reports [6]
铝:横盘震荡,氧化铝:继续下行
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 01:54
2025 年 06 月 10 日 铝:横盘震荡 氧化铝:继续下行 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源(联系人) 期货从业资格号:F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 铝、氧化铝基本面数据更新 | | | | T | T-1 | 1-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20025 | -45 | -45 | રેસ | -615 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20060 | - | - | ー | l | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2483 | 32 | 35 | 103 | -121 | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 133229 | 19493 | -37862 | -133513 | 9074 | | | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 181672 | 214 | -13992 | -13139 | -16174 | | | 电解铝 | LME铝3M成交量 | 15 ...
方正富邦:5月关键金融数据出炉,CPI、PPI下降,债市迎来哪些机会?
Zhong Guo Jing Ji Wang· 2025-06-10 01:47
Core Viewpoint - The recent CPI and PPI data indicate a continued decline in both indices, suggesting a weak domestic demand environment and potential opportunities in the bond market [1][2][3]. CPI Analysis - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, aligning with expectations. The core CPI slightly increased by 0.1% to 0.6% [1]. - Major contributors to the CPI decline include food and energy prices, with food prices dropping by 0.2% month-on-month, influenced by abundant supply and seasonal factors [1]. - Specific food items saw significant price drops: pork prices fell by 0.7%, vegetable prices by 5.9%, and egg prices by 0.9% [1]. PPI Analysis - The PPI experienced a notable decline, with a year-on-year drop of 3.3%, widening by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month. The month-on-month decrease was 0.4% [2]. - The PPI's decline is attributed to weak downstream demand and adverse weather conditions affecting prices in the non-ferrous and black metal industries [2]. - The top three industries with PPI increases were non-ferrous mining (+0.8%), electricity production (+0.5%), and clothing (+0.2%), while the largest declines were seen in coal mining (-3%), chemical processing (-3.1%), and oil and gas extraction (-5.6%) [2]. Market Implications - The current economic environment suggests a widening gap between upstream and downstream prices, with upstream prices struggling to transmit to lower-tier industries due to inventory and profit margin considerations [2]. - The decline in CPI and PPI is expected to lead to an increase in actual interest rates, which may enhance demand for safe-haven assets like bonds [2]. - The bond market is anticipated to benefit from a shift in monetary policy towards stabilizing prices, with potential fiscal measures to support PPI stabilization, leading to a more favorable outlook for the bond market [3].
锌:社库累库,价格承压下行
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 01:35
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The zinc social inventory is accumulating, causing the price to face downward pressure [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 21,910 yuan/ton, down 2.12%; the LME Zinc 3M electronic disk closed at 2,662.5 dollars/ton, down 0.95%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 242,193 lots, an increase of 68,645 lots; the LME Zinc trading volume was 10,645 lots, a decrease of 762 lots. The open interest of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 135,718 lots, an increase of 16,071 lots; the LME Zinc open interest was 217,427 lots, an increase of 464 lots [1]. - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Shanghai 0 zinc was 300 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M premium/discount was -35.6 dollars/ton, down 0.09 dollars/ton. The premium of Guangdong 0 zinc was 280 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton; the import bill of lading premium was 135 dollars/ton, down 5 dollars/ton. The premium of Tianjin 0 zinc was 240 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton; the spot import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -443.38 yuan/ton, down 34.81 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Zinc futures inventory was 2,078 tons, an increase of 74 tons; the LME Zinc inventory was 135,600 tons, a decrease of 1,375 tons. The LME Zinc cancelled warrants were 60,875 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons [1]. - **Related Product Prices**: The tax - included price of 1.0mm hot - dipped galvanized coil was 4,210 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton; the price of Shanghai Zamak - 5 zinc alloy was 60,875 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,000 yuan/ton; the price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% was 21,600 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. 3.2 News - In May, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the month - on - month change turned from an increase to a decrease. The year - on - year decline of PPI widened to 3.3%. China's exports in May increased by 4.8% year - on - year in US dollars, while imports decreased by 3.4%. China's rare earth export volume in May increased by nearly 23% month - on - month, soybean import volume increased by 129% month - on - month, reaching a record high, and coal and oil import volumes decreased [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The zinc trend intensity is -1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook. The trend intensity ranges from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [2].