Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The glass fundamentals are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. - The supply of glass has stabilized and rebounded at a low level. After the downstream's phased replenishment ended, the glass factory's inventory has increased. It is expected that the glass will mainly fluctuate weakly at a low level [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1029 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.29% from the previous value. The spot price of Shahe Safe large - board glass was 1028 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value. The main basis was - 1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75.00% from the previous value [5]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, was 1028 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [10]. Fundamental - Cost Side - There is no specific content provided in the text about the cost - side analysis other than the mention of glass production profit, but no detailed data or analysis is given. Fundamental - Production - The number of operating float glass production lines nationwide was 222, with an operating rate of 75%, at a historically low level in the same period. The daily melting volume of float glass nationwide was 159,100 tons, with the production capacity at a historically low level in the same period [21][23]. Fundamental - Demand - The real - estate terminal demand remains weak, and the number of orders for glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historically low level in the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic. Traders and processors are cautious and mainly consume the original glass inventory [4]. Fundamental - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises was 63.247 million weight boxes, an increase of 0.18% from the previous week, and the inventory was running above the 5 - year average [2][39]. Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet shows the production, consumption, and other data of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio [40]. Influencing Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy and environmental protection policy, the capacity of the float glass industry has been cleared. In the Shahe area, "coal - to - gas" conversion and industry cold - repair have led to production losses [3]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The main logic is that the glass supply has stabilized and rebounded at a low level, the downstream's phased replenishment has ended, and the glass factory's inventory has increased. The risk point is that the intensity of the "anti - involution" policy exceeds expectations [3].

Core Viewpoint - The report from GF Securities indicates that under neutral conditions, the inflation center in 2026 is expected to rise compared to 2025, influenced by several factors [1] Group 1: Inflation Factors - The probability of the pig cycle entering a recovery phase in 2026 is relatively high [1] - The most significant capacity pressure in key industries has passed, and current prices are showing a certain lag in reflection [1] - The impact of "anti-involution" policies is gradually accumulating [1] Group 2: Real Estate Market - The primary constraint on inflation is that real estate sales prices have not yet stabilized [1] - A clear stabilization in this area is necessary for the market to price in re-inflation more decisively [1]

Core Insights - The recent volatility in the prices of upstream raw materials like polysilicon has led listed companies in the new energy sector to increase their participation in the futures market for risk management [1][2] - In October alone, the number of listed companies announcing hedging activities reached 458, a 2.3-fold increase year-on-year, indicating a growing awareness of price risk management [1][5] Group 1: Company Actions - Camel Group announced a maximum trading margin and option premium of 90 million yuan for futures hedging to mitigate risks from raw material price fluctuations [2] - JinkoSolar plans to increase its maximum margin for futures hedging from 660 million yuan to 1.5 billion yuan, with a maximum contract value of 10.3 billion yuan, enhancing its financial stability [2] - EVE Energy adjusted its hedging limits, raising the maximum margin from 350 million yuan to 1 billion yuan, and the maximum contract value from 3.5 billion yuan to 8.5 billion yuan [2] Group 2: Market Trends - Polysilicon prices have experienced significant fluctuations, with a drop of 38.6% from 56,000 yuan/ton to 34,400 yuan/ton in the first half of 2025, leading to losses for many small and medium enterprises [3] - Following a rebound driven by "anti-involution" policies, polysilicon prices rose by 36.9% within a month, reaching 47,100 yuan/ton [3] - The futures market for polysilicon saw a record high of 57,945 yuan/ton on September 5, marking a 91% increase from late June [3] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The polysilicon market is expected to maintain a wide range of high-level fluctuations due to the interplay between policy expectations and market fundamentals [4] - The domestic polysilicon production is projected to be around 382,000 tons in Q4, a slight increase of 3% year-on-year, while the total production for 2025 is expected to decrease by 27.3% to approximately 1.34 million tons [4] - The industry is facing a need for nearly 100 billion yuan in funding to support potential storage initiatives aimed at stabilizing prices amid rapid capacity expansion [5] Group 4: Participation in Hedging - The number of listed companies engaging in hedging activities is expected to exceed 2,000 by the end of the year, reflecting a strong demand for new risk management tools [5] - In the first ten months of the year, 1,737 A-share listed companies issued hedging-related announcements, a year-on-year increase of 15.6% [5] - The electronics, basic chemicals, and power equipment sectors have the highest number of companies participating in hedging, with participation rates exceeding 40% in several industries [6]

Core Insights - The volatility in the prices of upstream raw materials, particularly polysilicon, has led to an increased participation of listed companies in the futures market for risk management [2][3] - In October alone, 458 companies announced hedging activities, a 2.3-fold increase year-on-year, indicating a growing awareness of price risk management among companies [2][8] - The number of companies engaging in hedging activities is expected to exceed 2000 by the end of the year [2][8] Company Actions - Camel Group announced a maximum trading margin and premium limit of 90 million yuan for futures and options hedging to mitigate risks from price fluctuations [3] - JinkoSolar plans to increase its hedging margin from 660 million yuan to 1.5 billion yuan, with a maximum contract value of 10.3 billion yuan, enhancing its financial stability [3] - EVE Energy adjusted its hedging limits, raising the maximum margin from 350 million yuan to 1 billion yuan, and the maximum contract value from 3.5 billion yuan to 8.5 billion yuan [3] Market Dynamics - Polysilicon prices have experienced significant fluctuations, impacting the cost structure and profitability of the entire photovoltaic industry [4] - The price of polysilicon dropped from 56,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 34,400 yuan/ton by the end of June, a decline of 38.6% [4] - Following a rebound driven by "anti-involution" policies, polysilicon prices rose to 47,100 yuan/ton by the end of July, marking a 36.9% increase within a month [4] Industry Trends - The futures market is becoming a crucial tool for companies to manage risks and stabilize profits amid price volatility [8] - The number of listed companies engaging in hedging activities has increased significantly, with 1,737 companies reporting hedging announcements in the first ten months of the year, a 15.6% year-on-year increase [8] - The electronics, basic chemicals, power equipment, machinery, and automotive sectors have the highest number of companies participating in hedging [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the glass futures fluctuated downward. The closing price of the main contract FG2601 decreased by 5.41% compared to the previous week, reaching 1032 yuan/ton. The spot price of 5mm white glass sheets in Hebei Shahe was 1028 yuan/ton, down 2.28% from the previous week. The glass fundamentals show stable supply and weak demand, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [3][11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Futures and Spot Weekly Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1091 yuan/ton to 1032 yuan/ton, a decline of 5.41%. The spot benchmark price dropped from 1052 yuan/ton to 1028 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.28%. The main basis decreased by 89.74% from -39 yuan/ton to -4 yuan/ton [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass sheets in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, was 1028 yuan/ton, down 2.28% from the previous week [11]. Fundamental Analysis - Cost and Profit No specific content provided. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - The number of operating float glass production lines nationwide is 222, with an operating rate of 75%. The daily melting capacity is 159,100 tons, and both the number of operating lines and capacity are at historically low levels for the same period [22][24]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In September 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.7082 million tons. The terminal real - estate demand is still weak, and the number of orders for glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original glass inventory [27][5]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 63.247 million weight boxes, an increase of 0.18% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [39]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows the production, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio of float glass each year. For example, in 2024E, the production was 55.1 million tons, the consumption was 53.1 million tons, the production growth rate was 3.94%, and the consumption growth rate was - 1.15% [40].

Group 1 - The report highlights that the expansion of domestic demand policies and improvements in supply-demand relationships across various industries have led to a stable growth trend in prices, with CPI rising by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year in October 2025, and core CPI increasing by 1.2% year-on-year, marking the sixth consecutive month of growth [1][10][11] - Various industries are experiencing price recovery, particularly in coal, photovoltaic, cement, computers, lithium-ion batteries, and integrated circuits, attributed to the recent "anti-involution" policies and ongoing improvements in supply-demand dynamics [1][11][12] - The report anticipates that if the current trends continue into 2026, there could be significant improvements in both CPI and PPI, indicating a positive outlook for inflation and industrial prices [1][11][12] Group 2 - Local governments are actively working to revitalize idle and inefficient state-owned assets, with provinces like Hunan, Hubei, and Anhui implementing reforms to enhance asset management and operational efficiency [2][16][18] - The report notes that since September 2023, the national government has been assisting local governments in resolving hidden debts, which has effectively reduced their overall debt scale and costs, allowing for increased support for investment, consumption, and technological innovation [3][25][26] - By 2026, local governments are expected to focus on both increasing revenue and reducing expenditures, with a strong emphasis on revitalizing idle assets and managing hidden debts effectively [3][26] Group 3 - Investment strategies should focus on regions where significant debt resolution policies or funding have been implemented, particularly in areas like Chongqing, Tianjin, and Guangxi, with a recommended duration of 3-5 years for investments [4][30] - The report suggests that provinces with strong economic fundamentals and effective debt management, such as Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang, should be prioritized for longer-duration investments due to their robust financing capabilities [29][30] - Areas with strong industrial foundations and financial support, particularly cities with significant industrial clusters, are recommended for short-duration investments of 2-3 years to mitigate risks from potential interest rate fluctuations [31][41]

Group 1: Economic Data Overview - In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.9% year-on-year, marking a new low in growth rate over the past 13 months, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[3] - Fixed asset investment in October fell by 12.2% year-on-year, with the decline deepening by 5.1 percentage points compared to September[3] - The real estate market continues to weaken, with residential sales area, new construction area, and completed area down by 19.6%, 29.9%, and 31.4% year-on-year, respectively[3] Group 2: Credit and Financing Trends - New loans in October amounted to 220 billion, a decrease of 280 billion year-on-year, with household loans net repayment reaching 360.4 billion, a drop of 520.4 billion year-on-year[4] - The total social financing in October was 814.9 billion, down 597.1 billion year-on-year, marking the third consecutive month of decline[4] - M2 money supply growth fell by 0.2 percentage points to 8.2% year-on-year, while M1 decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 6.2%[4] Group 3: Investment and Manufacturing Insights - Manufacturing investment saw a year-on-year decline of 7.9%, with a significant reduction in low-efficiency capacity investments due to "anti-involution" policies[3] - Industrial added value growth fell by 1.6 percentage points to 4.9% year-on-year, with mining and manufacturing sectors also experiencing declines[3] - The construction sector's investment dropped significantly, with broad infrastructure investment down by 9.7% year-on-year[3] Group 4: Policy and Future Outlook - The current economic data indicates a need for increased policy stimulus to boost domestic demand, particularly in real estate and consumer sectors[4] - The central government may need to plan for increased fiscal spending to stimulate consumption and effective investment in early next year[4] - Monetary policy may focus on easing measures to support consumer spending, with potential credit relief policies anticipated to have a marginal positive effect on the real estate market[4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the A-share market is showing signs of a bull market, supported by a stable and improving Chinese economy and encouraging policies, despite some risks related to economic fundamentals and market volatility [1] - The China Securities A500 ETF (159338) experienced a net inflow of 27 million units, reflecting a balanced capital influx into broader market indices [1] - The number of accounts for the Guotai China Securities A500 ETF is significantly higher than its competitors, being more than three times that of the second-ranked ETF, indicating strong investor interest [1] Group 2 - The market outlook suggests that a breakthrough above 4000 points requires a combination of mainline logic and profit-making effects [1] - There are concerns regarding the lagging economic fundamentals, fluctuations in external markets, and profit-taking pressures in certain sectors, which may pose challenges for market performance [1] - The ongoing implementation of anti-involution policies is expected to increase the likelihood of the domestic economy escaping the "price-demand" negative feedback loop [1]

工业硅周报 2025 年 11 月 17 日 有机硅需求降温，工业硅震荡走弱 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 8 ⚫ 上周工业硅向下调整，主因国内宏观政策缺乏新的指引， 有机硅企业企业联合减产30%的消息打压短期需求端的表 现。供应来看，新疆地区开工率升至85%，云南地区开工 率逐步下滑，内蒙和甘肃未能产量释放有限，供应端边际 有所收敛；从需求侧来看，多晶硅大厂价格暂稳但市场情 绪走弱，关注产 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the glass industry are weak. With production profit recovery being sluggish, supply at a historically low level for the same period, downstream deep - processing orders overall weak and below the same period of previous years, and real - estate terminal demand being feeble, the inventory is at a high level. The glass market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract decreased from 1056 yuan/ton to 1032 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.27%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - size glass decreased from 1032 yuan/ton to 1028 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.39%. The main basis changed from - 24 yuan/ton to - 4 yuan/ton, a change of - 83.33% [5]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - size boards in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe is 1028 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton from the previous day [10]. Fundamentals - Cost Side - The production profit of glass has a slow recovery, with the supply at a historically low level for the same period [2]. Fundamentals - Production - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 222, with an operating rate of 75%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historically low level for the same period. The daily melting capacity of national float glass is 159,100 tons, and the production capacity is also at a historically low level for the same period [21][23]. Fundamentals - Demand - In September 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.7082 million tons [26]. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 63.247 million weight - boxes, an increase of 0.18% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the five - year average [2][39]. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The production, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio of float glass from 2017 to 2024E are presented in the balance sheet. For example, in 2024E, the production is 55.1 million tons, the consumption is 53.1 million tons, the production growth rate is 3.94%, and the consumption growth rate is - 1.15% [40]. Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: Under the influence of "anti - involution" policies and environmental protection policies, the production capacity of the float glass industry has been cleared, such as the "coal - to - gas" conversion in the Shahe area and industry cold repairs, resulting in production losses [3]. - **Negative factors**: The main logic is that the glass supply has stabilized and rebounded at a low level, the downstream's phased inventory replenishment has ended, and the glass factory's inventory has increased. It is expected that the glass will fluctuate weakly at a low level. The real - estate terminal demand remains weak, the number of orders of glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historically low level for the same period, the capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and the "anti - involution" market sentiment has subsided [3][4].