Core Viewpoint - The report from Kaiyuan Securities indicates a positive outlook for the steady growth of wealth management, but the incremental growth may not match that of 2024, primarily due to ongoing pressure on the asset side [1] Group 1: Liability Side - Wealth management scale has reached a historical high of 30.67 trillion yuan as of Q2 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 7.5%. However, the growth rate is expected to slow down, maintaining around 7.5% for the entire year of 2025 [1] - There is a preference for short-term low-yield products, leading to a gradual reduction in yield expectations [1] - The cash management scale is declining, while fixed-income products with a "minimum holding period" are experiencing significant growth, reflecting a high demand for liquidity among residents [1] Group 2: Asset Side - There is significant pressure on asset allocation, necessitating an increase in high liquidity assets such as cash and bank deposits over public funds and interbank certificates of deposit [2] - Cash and bank deposits accounted for approximately 910 billion yuan in incremental investment assets in Q2 2025, representing over half of the total investment asset increase [2] - The demand for public funds is high, with wealth management holding 1.38 trillion yuan in public funds as of Q2 2025, marking a historical high in terms of holding ratio at 4.20% [2] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The top three wealth management companies as of May 2025 are Zhaoyin Wealth Management, Xingyin Wealth Management, and Xinyin Wealth Management, benefiting from a strong retail customer base and significant group synergy [3] - The market share of small and medium-sized banks has decreased to 10%, with many actively exiting the market and transitioning to pure agency sales [3] - The number of agency institutions for wealth management companies increased to 594 by June 2025, indicating a shift in strategy among smaller banks to leverage regional advantages [3]

Core Insights - The bank wealth management market in China has shown significant growth in the first half of 2025, with a total scale of 30.67 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 7.53% [2][3] - The market generated a total return of 389.6 billion yuan for investors, while the funds supporting the real economy reached 21 trillion yuan [2][3] - The decline in cash management product scales is attributed to lower yields and stricter regulatory policies, leading to decreased attractiveness [3][4] Market Performance - As of June 2025, there were 194 banks and 32 wealth management companies with active products, totaling 41,800 products, an increase of 3.78% from the beginning of the year [2] - Cash management products saw a significant decline, with a scale of 6.4 trillion yuan, representing 25.79% of all open-ended products, down 4.38 percentage points from the start of the year [2][3] Investor Behavior - The proportion of aggressive investors (risk level C5) has increased, indicating a shift in market risk appetite, with stable investors (risk level C2) still holding the largest share at 33.56% [3][4] - The average annualized return for equity-based wealth management products reached 15.06% in 2025, with a notable increase in recent months [4] Distribution Channels - Wealth management companies are expanding their distribution channels beyond their parent banks, with 30 out of 32 companies utilizing additional banks for product sales [5] - The number of institutions distributing wealth management products has increased slightly, with 569 institutions involved as of June 2025 [5] Strategic Recommendations - Leading wealth management subsidiaries are encouraged to enhance their capabilities through financial technology and cross-border investment opportunities [5][6] - Smaller institutions are advised to focus on local market specialization and optimize digital sales systems to reduce operational costs [6]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the number of investors holding wealth management products increased by 8.37% year-on-year, reaching 136 million by the end of June [1][4] - The average annualized yield of wealth management products fell to 2.12%, down 68 basis points from 2.8% in the same period last year [1][4] - The total scale of the wealth management market reached 30.67 trillion yuan, with a year-to-date increase of 720 billion yuan [2][3] Investor Trends - The number of personal investors increased by 10.29 million in the first half of the year, indicating a strong influx of new investors [1][4] - The risk appetite of individual investors has shifted, with an increase in the proportion of those with higher risk preferences [4][6] Market Dynamics - The gap between the scale of wealth management products and public funds has widened, with public fund assets totaling 34.39 trillion yuan, a year-to-date increase of 1.56 trillion yuan [2][3] - The growth in wealth management products was primarily driven by the second quarter, contributing approximately 1.53 trillion yuan to the total scale [3] Product Composition - Cash management products have seen a significant decline, with a reduction of nearly 1 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, now accounting for 25.79% of open-ended wealth management products [7][8] - The proportion of risk-rated products has shifted, with a notable increase in the share of higher-risk products [6][9] Asset Allocation - Wealth management products have increased their allocation to public funds, cash, and deposits, while reducing exposure to credit bonds [10][11] - By the end of June, the total investment assets of wealth management products reached 32.97 trillion yuan, with a significant portion allocated to bonds [10][11]

Group 1 - In 2025, the balance of household deposits exceeded 156 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 14.3%, but the reality is that this "money bag" is riddled with issues as the real estate market collapses and prices plummet [1] - The decline in deposit interest rates, with three-year fixed deposit rates dropping from 3.5% to 1.95%, has led to a situation where depositors' earnings are being eroded by inflation, as indicated by the central bank's report on financial stability [2] - The shift of deposits to the wealth management market is evident, with public fund issuance increasing by 47% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, as low bank interest rates push individuals to seek higher returns [3] Group 2 - The financial market is experiencing a "bloody hunt," with significant losses reported in the A-share market, where the total market value evaporated by 26.94 trillion yuan, leading to severe consequences for investors, particularly the elderly [4] - High household debt levels, with a leverage ratio of 61.5%, are contributing to consumer anxiety, as rising living costs outpace wage growth, forcing families to cut back on spending [5] - Strategies for protecting personal finances include ladder savings methods and defensive investment strategies, emphasizing the importance of avoiding high-risk investment products that promise unrealistic returns [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing trend of deposit "migration" from traditional bank savings to asset management markets, driven by declining deposit interest rates and the increasing attractiveness of bank wealth management products [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - In the first half of 2025, bank deposit interest rates continued to decline, leading to an accelerated outflow of resident savings into the asset management market [2][4]. - By the end of June 2025, the scale of bank wealth management products reached approximately 31.3 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 9.7% [1][6]. - The non-bank deposit scale reached a near ten-year high in May, reinforcing the trend of deposit migration [4]. Group 2: Wealth Management Product Dynamics - Fixed-income products have shown strong market demand due to their stable returns and controllable risks, becoming a key choice for absorbing migrating deposits [9]. - The market structure is evolving, with a notable increase in the scale of fixed-income products while cash management products are experiencing a contraction [9][10]. Group 3: Strategic Responses from Banks - Banks are accelerating strategic transformations to better meet investor needs, including optimizing product structures and enhancing competitive pricing strategies [13]. - Many wealth management subsidiaries are introducing innovative products, such as floating management fee rate products, which align the interests of managers and investors more closely [14][15]. - The introduction of floating fee structures has garnered positive market feedback, indicating a shift towards performance-oriented management and differentiation from public funds [16].

随着今年5月新一轮存款降息潮的落地，银行理财正在通过扩渠道、降费率，进行一场激烈的"揽客之 战"。存款利率的持续下行正吸引更多资金涌入银行理财市场。普益标准数据显示，截至今年6月底，银 行理财市场存续规模31.22万亿元，较年初增长5.22%。展望下半年理财市场走势，行业将面临降息压缩 收益与估值整改的双重压力。"为此，银行理财子公司正从产品创新与策略优化两方面积极应对。"在中 国邮政储蓄银行研究员娄飞鹏看来，一方面，理财公司推进低波动稳健产品与多元主题产品并行；另一 方面，通过增加权益类资产、衍生品配置等方式提升收益。(金融时报) ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The capital market has shown a "barbell" structure since 2023, with large-cap and small-cap companies performing well, while mid-cap companies have been relatively flat. Large-cap stocks benefit from state-owned enterprises and insurance funds, while small-cap stocks are driven by on-market funds and quantitative private equity strategies [1][2][5]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Market Dynamics**: The A-shares and H-shares have performed more evenly, influenced by the southbound capital flow into Hong Kong stocks [1][5]. - **Investment Shifts**: The decline in deposit rates has led residents to seek higher certainty investment products, such as participating whole life insurance, creating a positive feedback loop through bank channels [1][6]. - **Future Market Outlook**: The market outlook remains optimistic, particularly for the financial sector. The valuation recovery of large-cap stocks led by insurance funds is expected to continue, while small-cap stocks are reaching new highs, although some pullbacks are inevitable [1][7]. - **Incremental Capital**: Recent incremental capital is limited, with insurance wealth management contributing approximately 1 trillion annually. However, after September, there will be a shift towards dividend insurance, prompting insurance companies to increase equity investments, with an estimated 30%-40% of new funds directed towards high-growth assets, bringing in 300-400 billion [1][8]. Additional Important Content - **Asset Allocation Changes**: The new accounting standards require insurance companies to increase standardized asset allocation, which is expected to promote stock market development [4]. - **Bank Wealth Management Trends**: The average yield on bank wealth management products is around 2.5%, with a gradual shift towards multi-asset strategies, including equities, convertible bonds, REITs, and alternative assets, expected to bring in around 100 billion annually [1][8]. - **Public Fund and Securities Company Trends**: Public funds have seen stable active equity scales, while FOF products have significantly increased due to their focus on controlling drawdowns and absolute returns [9]. Securities companies are leveraging off-market derivatives like DCN to meet investor demand for high-yield fixed-income products [10][11]. - **Regulatory Impact on Quantitative Funds**: New regulations have led to a significant increase in the issuance of neutral strategy products by quantitative funds, which are primarily linked to small-cap stocks [12][13]. - **Future of Off-Market Derivatives**: The off-market derivatives business is expected to have a positive impact on the capital market, although it carries risks, particularly in volatile conditions [15][16]. Potential Sources of Incremental Capital - Future incremental capital may come from insurance funds, bank wealth management, FOFs, and overseas funds, especially in a low-risk-free rate environment and with the potential for RMB appreciation [17].

非银金融机构存款一般包括证券、信托、 理财、基金等非银机构存放在银行的存款。近年来，存款利 率接连下调，居民存款"搬家"成为了非银金融机构存款增加的一个重要原因。 2024年来，随着债市持续走强，以配置债券为主的固收类理财产品和债券型基金收益水涨船高，持续吸 引资金流入，成为了理财、基金市场最重要的增长极。银行理财登记中心数据显示，2024年末，理财市 场规模较上一年末增加1.43万亿元至29.95万亿元；据wind数据，2024年债券型基金增加1.6万亿元。 据wind数据统计，上半年非银金融机构存款增加值创下近十年同期最高纪录；其中，5月非银金融机构 存款单月增加1.18万亿元，同样创下近十年同期最高纪录。分析指出，随着二季度新一轮存款利率下 调，居民以及部分企业可能将活期存款进一步转向基金、理财等，直接推动了非银存款的增长。 央行披露的数据也体现了存款"搬家"效应。据wind数据，2024年前11个月，非银金融机构存款累计增加 5.76万亿元，较上一年多增3.59亿元。2024年12月，由于监管进一步减少资金空转行为，非银同业活期 存款利率纳入自律管理，存款利率下调，叠加年末资金"回表"银行体系等，非银 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's performance relative to the market index [3][62]. Core Insights - The capital market has shown a pronounced "dumbbell" funding structure, with small and micro-cap stocks outperforming large-cap stocks in the first half of the year. This trend is driven by the influx of insurance funds and the stabilizing role of state-owned funds [1][12]. - The report identifies several sources of incremental capital entering the market, including central government funds, insurance companies, foreign investments, and a resurgence in public and private equity funds [2][39]. - The report highlights the potential for increased dividend payouts in natural monopoly industries, supported by stable cash flows and reduced capital expenditure pressures [51]. Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - The report discusses the formation of a "dumbbell" structure in the market, where micro and small-cap stocks have achieved the best returns, followed by small-cap and large-cap stocks [12]. - It notes that the performance of large-cap stocks has improved post-tariff impacts, with a notable catch-up effect observed [12]. Sources of Incremental Capital - Central Huijin is identified as a stabilizing force in the market, acting as a quasi-stabilization fund through significant ETF holdings [17]. - Insurance companies are increasing their influence in the capital market, with premium income growing and investment funds expanding, leading to a higher allocation towards equity assets [25][29]. - Foreign capital is expected to reallocate towards Chinese assets, driven by favorable valuation and a stable regulatory environment [33]. - Public funds are experiencing a revival in active equity issuance, while private funds are seeing a recovery in management scale [39][44]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends leading brokerage firms such as CITIC Securities and Huatai Securities, emphasizing their strong market positions and potential for performance [3][63]. - It also suggests that firms with robust flow advantages and diverse monetization licenses, like Dongfang Wealth and Guolian Minsheng, are well-positioned for growth [62][63].

Investment Rating - The industry maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating, with a current PB valuation of 1.48 times, indicating sufficient performance elasticity under favorable market conditions [3][62]. Core Insights - The capital market has exhibited a pronounced "dumbbell" funding structure, with small and micro-cap stocks outperforming large-cap stocks in the first half of 2025. This trend is driven by the influx of incremental funds from various sources, including central financial institutions and insurance companies [1][12]. - Incremental funds expected in the market include contributions from central financial institutions, insurance companies, foreign investments, and a resurgence in public and private equity funds, which are anticipated to enhance market liquidity and risk appetite [2][39]. - The insurance sector has seen a significant increase in premium income, with a reported 11.2% year-on-year growth, leading to a rise in investment funds allocated to equities [25][29]. Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - The "dumbbell" structure in the market has resulted in micro-cap stocks achieving the highest returns, followed by small-cap stocks, while large-cap stocks have lagged behind [1][12]. - The performance of large-cap stocks has shown a catching-up effect post-tariff impacts, with value and growth factors influencing returns across different market segments [1][12]. Incremental Fund Sources - Central Huijin acts as a stabilizing force in the market, with significant ETF holdings exceeding 1.05 trillion yuan, contributing to market stability during fluctuations [17][19]. - Insurance companies are increasing their equity investments, with stock and fund investments reaching 4.47 trillion yuan, representing about 13% of total investments [29][32]. - Foreign investments are on the rise, driven by favorable valuations of Chinese assets and a stable outlook for the capital market, with foreign holdings of Chinese stocks showing positive growth [33][36]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends leading brokerage firms such as CITIC Securities and Huatai Securities, which are expected to benefit from increased institutional pricing power and regulatory support [3][62]. - The report also highlights the potential for brokerage firms listed in Hong Kong to achieve excess returns due to lower valuations and increased foreign capital inflows [63].