转自：中国日报网 中国日报网12月29日电 美联社近日报道指出，由于对物价持续攀升及美国政府全面关税政策的影响深感忧虑，美国消费者对经济的信心出现动 摇。世界大型企业研究会12月23日发布的调查数据显示，12月美国消费者信心指数下降3.8点至89.1，已连续第5个月下滑。 美国"市场观察"网站刊文称，关税冲击、通胀加剧以及就业增长乏力给2025年的美国经济蒙上了厚厚的阴影。虽然第三季度美国经济以两年来 的最快速度增长，但调查却反映出了美国民众普遍的担忧和不满。 "市场观察"网站文章截图 文章认为，这种"脱节"源自关税、通胀等因素，部分原因还在于美国消费者把大部分的钱花在了必需品上，而没有花在想要的东西上。以第三 季度为例，大部分的支出用于医疗、保险、住房、水电费、汽油等价格大幅上涨的刚需领域；而第二季度消费支出的扩张，则很大程度上是美 国消费者为规避关税涨价而提前购买汽车等大件商品所致。 更令美国人恼火的是关税和通胀的叠加效应。今夏通胀本已趋缓，关税政策却再度推高物价。在承受了40年来最大的通胀飙升后，这波反弹进 一步加剧了美国人的负担。杰富瑞首席美国经济学家托马斯·西蒙斯指出："2024年通胀疲劳感本来正在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article reflects on the author's journey in macroeconomic research over the past decade, emphasizing the importance of adapting research methodologies to current market conditions and the evolving economic landscape [5][10]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The author predicts a weakening of the US dollar, driven by a shift in the Federal Reserve's policy towards a more accommodative stance, which is expected to exceed market expectations [7]. - The article discusses the rise of gold as a significant asset, highlighting the author's research on the changing dynamics of gold pricing and central bank purchases, which filled a gap in market research [7][8]. - The author notes that the traditional macroeconomic frameworks need to be revised to better reflect the realities of the new economic phase, particularly in light of the limitations of GDP as a growth measure [14]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - The article anticipates a stable macroeconomic environment in the coming year, suggesting that while the economy may remain steady, the stock market may not necessarily mirror economic trends due to structural changes brought about by new economic factors [14][15]. - The author highlights the role of liquidity in driving stock prices, indicating that a favorable global liquidity environment, influenced by the Federal Reserve's policies, could support a bullish market trend [15]. - The article suggests that various asset classes, including stocks and bonds, may experience a phase of resonance in the upcoming year, driven by the recovery and expansion of balance sheets across economic sectors [15].

这一判断的核心在于通胀走势。若通胀意外上行，美联储可能很快将被迫重启加息。但考虑到此类决策 伴随的政治压力，叠加特朗普总统即将提名新任美联储主席（理论上会更倾向于配合其降息诉求），除 非万不得已，美联储大概率不会扭转当前的鸽派立场。 纵观全局，黄金始终保持着一贯的看涨趋势，其间仅出现三次以看涨旗形形态进行的盘整。这种持续形 态常在长期上涨后显现：虽然过度的单边持仓可能引发剧烈回调，但当买家在回调中进场构筑更高的低 点，原有趋势便具备了延续的合理基础。这正是2024年最后两个月的情形，随后在2025年4月至8月重 现，并于2025年末持续突破行情。 摘要今日周一（12月29日）亚盘时段。国际黄金震荡走低，目前交投于4506.53美元/盎司附近，跌幅约 0.57%，但仍处于较高点，位于历史高点（4549.69美元/盎司）附近下方不远处。但2026年黄金走势仍 被市场普遍看好。 今日周一（12月29日）亚盘时段。国际黄金震荡走低，目前交投于4506.53美元/盎司附近，跌幅约 0.57%，但仍处于较高点，位于历史高点（4549.69美元/盎司）附近下方不远处。但2026年黄金走势仍 被市场普遍看好。 【要闻速递】 ...

Group 1 - The core view of the report highlights that the US stock market is experiencing a "Christmas rally," with the S&P 500 index reaching new highs, supported by a strong GDP growth rate of 4.3% in Q3, which exceeded expectations [2][9] - The report indicates that the year-end liquidity and holiday consumption season are likely to continue supporting market sentiment, although trading may become quieter after the Christmas holiday [2][9] - The report notes that gold and silver prices have surged significantly this year, with gold up over 70% and silver up over 170%, driven by risk aversion and expectations of interest rate cuts [2][9] Group 2 - Economic data shows that the US Q3 GDP annualized growth rate was 4.3%, higher than the previous value of 3.8% and market expectations of 3.3% [3][10] - The report mentions a decrease in initial jobless claims, with the number falling to 214,000 from the previous 224,000 [3][10] - The report tracks global asset performance, noting that NYMEX platinum had the highest increase at 24.70%, followed by COMEX silver at 18.04% and COMEX gold at 4.41% [31][33] Group 3 - In the equity market, the Shenzhen Composite Index had the largest increase at 3.53%, while the UK FTSE 100 saw a decline of 0.27% [36][42] - The report highlights that the materials sector in the US stock market had the highest increase at 3.20%, while the consumer staples sector experienced the largest decline at -0.11% [42] - The report indicates that the foreign exchange market saw the Korean won appreciate by 1.83% against the RMB, while the US dollar depreciated by 0.46% [43][44] Group 4 - The report updates on global economic data, noting a rebound in the Eurozone M3 money supply year-on-year [60][67] - It mentions an increase in the UK industrial trends orders index, indicating positive sentiment in the manufacturing sector [69] - The report states that Japan's PMI remains stable, reflecting consistent economic conditions [71]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index achieved an eight-day winning streak, with a weekly increase of 1.88%, indicating a "steady rise" trend [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index performed better, with weekly gains of 3.55% and 3.90% respectively [2] - The Wande Commercial Aerospace Index surged by 8.36%, marking its largest weekly gain in the second half of the year [2] - The overall market sentiment showed improvement, with increased trading volumes, indicating a recovery in risk appetite [4] Equity Market - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets significantly increased to 1.95 trillion yuan, surpassing 2 trillion yuan on Friday [4] - Growth style stocks outperformed value style stocks, suggesting a shift in market preference [4] - The market is showing signs of breaking out of the consolidation phase, with a need to closely monitor changes in trading volume [4] Bond Market - The bond market showed a recovery, with both interest rate bonds and credit bonds strengthening, supported by a balanced funding environment [2][29] - The central bank's measures have maintained liquidity, alleviating initial concerns about market adjustments [5] - A cautious approach is recommended for long-term bonds due to supply pressures, with a focus on short to medium-term bond strategies [5] Commodity Market - COMEX gold prices continued to rise, reaching new highs, driven by a weaker dollar and geopolitical tensions [2] - The South China Commodity Index increased by 4.00%, with significant gains in precious metals and non-ferrous metals [33] - The outlook for gold remains positive in the medium to long term, supported by factors such as central bank purchases and limited supply capacity [6] Overseas Market - The U.S. stock market showed resilience, with the S&P 500 reaching new highs, supported by strong economic data [2] - The U.S. GDP for Q3 was reported at an annualized rate of 4.3%, exceeding expectations, which has led to a slight reduction in interest rate cut expectations [2] - Investors are encouraged to consider diversified overseas investments through QDII funds, balancing asset classes and regional exposures [7]

周一，美元兑日元汇价呈现明显的回调态势，在前一交易日温和上涨的基础上逐步回吐涨幅，整体围绕156.20点位附近展开震荡走低行情。 这些积极信号与政策收紧倾向形成共振，不仅大幅提升了市场对日本央行在2026年前后持续收紧货币政策的预期，还直接推动日本国债收益率上行，同时有 效降低了政策突然转向可能引发的市场波动风险，多重因素共同构筑了日元走强的内在动力。 在日元获得支撑的同时，美元自身走势也面临显著的中期压力，进一步加剧了美元兑日元的回调态势。当前市场核心预期仍聚焦于美联储的政策宽松路径， 普遍认为美联储在2026年大概率将进一步实施降息操作，这一预期直接削弱了美元的中期吸引力。 日本央行最新披露的12月货币政策会议纪要，释放出明确的政策收紧倾向信号，显著改变了市场对其政策路径的原有预判。 对于短期市场而言，即将在周二公布的美联储12月货币政策会议纪要成为关键风向标，交易员正通过这份纪要研判美联储决策层内部对未来政策路径的分歧 程度，进而调整对美元的持仓策略。 会议纪要显示，多位委员在讨论中达成共识，认为当前应秉持稳步加息的政策方向，核心目的在于规避货币政策与通胀走势、经济基本面变化出现背离。 部分委员明确指出 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The global economic landscape is undergoing significant restructuring, driven by geopolitical tensions, supply chain reshaping, and shifts in monetary policy, which are pushing the commodity market into a critical phase [1] - The demand for copper is expected to grow due to the "re-industrialization" trend and regionalization of supply chains, with China's refined copper consumption projected to reach 1,495 million tons in 2024, a 2.75% increase year-on-year [2] - The U.S. and EU are launching substantial infrastructure projects, such as a $584 billion grid upgrade plan in the EU, which is anticipated to increase copper demand by 4% to 5% annually [2] Group 2: Supply Chain Dynamics - The competition for copper resources is intensifying due to supply chain regionalization, with the U.S. stockpiling over 70% of global exchange copper inventories, leading to shortages and rising costs in Asia [3] - Trade policies and inventory management by the U.S. are influencing global copper supply chains, creating a long-term support logic for copper prices [3] Group 3: Monetary Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve's shift to a rate-cutting cycle is a key variable for the commodity market, as lower real interest rates are expected to support commodity pricing [4] - Historical data indicates that during past rate-cutting cycles, commodities like gold and copper have seen significant price increases, reinforcing the positive correlation between lower rates and commodity prices [4] Group 4: Commodity Role in Investment - Commodities are increasingly recognized for their dual role in asset allocation as both an inflation hedge and a risk diversifier, especially in the context of rising global inflation [5] - The strategic importance of copper is highlighted due to its critical role in AI infrastructure, electricity, and renewable energy, further supporting its price stability [5] Group 5: ETF Performance - The recent performance of the non-ferrous ETF (159980.SZ) has seen its scale surpass 4 billion, reaching 4.124 billion yuan, with a total of 2.072 billion shares, marking new highs since its inception [6] - The ETF has experienced continuous net inflows of 1.18 billion yuan over the past 22 days, indicating strong investor interest [6]

股指：指数连续上涨，资金情绪高涨 上周，A股市场持续上涨，Wind全A收涨2.78%，日均成交额1.97万亿元，较12月均值显著放量。中证 1000上涨3.76% ，中证500上涨4.03% ，沪深300指数上涨1.95% ，上证50上涨1.37%。资金情绪高涨， 融资余额周度增加460亿元，至2.52万亿元。但由于指数仍未摆脱前期震荡中枢，期权隐含波动率低位 震荡，1000IV收于19.32%，300IV收于16.14%。股债比较来看，股票市场估值小幅抬升，Wind全A估值 22.27倍，债权收益率基本持平，10年国债活跃券收益率1.84%，权益市场更受青睐。宏观因素有限，但 热点题材不断涌现，推动A股连续上涨。 资金层面的热点是A500ETF在12月获得大幅申购。据统计，宽基型ETF12月净申购1100亿元，其中近 1020亿元为A500ETF。A500指数长期与沪深300走势高度相关，相关系数超过0.98，细微差别在于A500 指数成长标的稍多，例如电力设备、电子等板块。在A500ETF获得大幅申购的同时，我们关注到Top5 会员单位IF净空头近期显著上涨，二者可能存在对冲关联。因此，相关资金可能并不会 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Precious Metals and Commodities Market - **Key Drivers**: Quantitative easing, tariff policies, geopolitical uncertainties, and inflation concerns have significantly influenced the prices of precious metals since 2020 [2][4][7]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Price Trends**: Precious metals have seen a strong performance, particularly silver and platinum, driven by global economic uncertainty and inflation fears. The internal rate of return (IRR) for precious metal projects can exceed 50%, making them more attractive than copper projects, which typically have an IRR of around 20% [2][6][4]. - **Copper Price Expectations**: The market anticipates copper prices to rise to $8 per pound due to insufficient current prices ($5 per pound) to incentivize new investments and production expansions [8]. - **Shift to Safe-Haven Assets**: Post-pandemic economic recovery in the U.S. has been weak, leading to a shift of funds towards safe-haven assets like precious metals, as confidence in U.S. debt repayment capabilities diminishes [9][11]. - **Geopolitical Factors**: Geopolitical uncertainties have prompted Western countries to accelerate the development of domestic critical mineral resources, impacting supply and prices [10][30]. Additional Important Insights - **Speculative Sentiment in Silver Market**: The decline in the gold-silver ratio indicates heightened speculative sentiment, with retail investors heavily buying silver, which could lead to a reversal of bullish sentiment [5][34]. - **Outlook for Industrial Metals**: The outlook for non-ferrous metals remains optimistic, with expectations of continued leadership in the market, particularly for copper, lithium, and gold [26][29]. - **Valuation of Precious Metals**: Precious metals are currently more attractive compared to other commodities due to lower initial capital expenditures and tighter supply conditions [6][31]. - **Market Volatility**: The upcoming change in the Federal Reserve chairmanship could lead to increased market volatility, affecting interest rate policies and overall market sentiment [15]. Market Dynamics - **Investment Opportunities**: The current low valuations in the non-ferrous metals sector present significant investment opportunities, with historical data suggesting a positive correlation between low price-to-earnings ratios and market performance [31]. - **Future Price Risks**: The silver market faces potential risks from speculative buying, which could lead to sharp price corrections if sentiment shifts [40][42]. - **Impact of Retail Investors**: Retail investors are expected to play a crucial role in the silver market, potentially driving prices higher in the short term, but their speculative behavior may also lead to volatility [42][43]. Conclusion The precious metals and commodities market is currently influenced by a combination of macroeconomic factors, geopolitical uncertainties, and speculative behaviors. The outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with significant opportunities for investment, particularly in precious metals and select industrial metals. However, potential risks from market volatility and shifts in investor sentiment must be closely monitored.

智通财经APP获悉，过去一年，美联储在实现国会授权的双重目标——最大化就业与物价稳定——时陷 入了自上世纪70年代滞胀时期以来罕见的矛盾境地。这种局面引发了美联储多年来未见的内部深刻分 歧，最直接的体现便是委员们在利率政策上针锋相对的反对意见。 而这种分歧态势，预计将持续到2026年。 德意志银行首席美国经济学家Matthew Luzzetti指出，美联储主席鲍威尔今年成功弥合了分裂的央行内 部共识，推动了三次降息。但如果未来通胀率持续高企、就业市场却依旧疲软，新任主席可能会发现更 难凝聚共识。 Luzzetti表示："尽管未来最有可能的政策路径仍是进一步降息，但我们也需警惕一种风险情景：下一任 主席最终可能面对一个考虑加息的委员会。" 亨廷顿银行首席经济学家Ian Wyatt补充道："在这样的环境下，新任主席想要调和各方意见、推动政策 共识，无疑是一项艰巨的任务。尤其是当新任主席的政策立场与委员会多数委员的观点严重脱节时，难 度会进一步升级。" 特朗普日益增长的影响力 2025年初，特朗普政府推出了一系列密集的经济政策调整，从频繁变动的关税税率到收紧边境管控以限 制移民流入，这些举措让美联储在全年多数时间里 ...