对于投资者而言，需重点关注澳央行后续议息声明、澳大利亚1月通胀数据及大宗商品价格走势，警惕 汇率在数据催化下的波动；中长期来看，需跟踪澳大利亚通胀回落进度、经济复苏韧性及全球央行政策 分化格局，合理控制投资风险。 作为典型商品货币，大宗商品价格走强进一步夯实澳元基本面。澳大利亚资源出口依赖度较高，铁矿 石、铜、黄金等大宗商品价格近期表现强势，铁矿石站稳130美元/吨，铜价、金价创下新高，镍价维持 九个月高位。中国需求回暖叠加供应端扰动，推动大宗商品价格延续强势，直接利好澳大利亚贸易收 支，提升澳元资产吸引力，成为支撑澳元的重要筹码。与此同时，澳大利亚经济展现出较强韧性，2025 年四季度GDP增长超出预期，私人需求、住房投资表现强劲，失业率稳定在4.1%左右，就业市场紧张 态势未改，为央行加息及澳元强势提供了坚实支撑。 对比全球主要央行政策分化，进一步凸显澳元的相对优势。当前美联储、欧洲央行聚焦降息节奏讨论， 市场预期美联储下一次降息可能推迟至6月，而澳央行则在通胀压力下开启加息周期，美澳利差扩大至 2022年以来新高，吸引跨境资金流入澳元资产，进一步助推澳元走强。不过，短期需警惕美元指数反弹 带来的压制，以 ...

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate is experiencing a slight pullback while remaining strong, driven by political uncertainty in Japan, fiscal policy expectations, and the divergence in monetary policies between the US and Japan, with upcoming elections amplifying short-term volatility [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of February 6, 2026, the USD/JPY exchange rate is reported at 156.5800, down 0.4900 (0.2866% decline) from the previous trading day, with a daily high of 157.0600 and a low of 156.5000, indicating a high-level minor correction [1]. - The upcoming Japanese House of Representatives election on February 8 is raising market concerns regarding the election outcome and subsequent fiscal policies, particularly the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's expansionary fiscal policies which may exacerbate debt burdens and suppress the yen [1][2]. - Despite a rise in Japan's service sector PMI to 53.7 in January, the yen remains under pressure due to ongoing fiscal and political risks, with inflation momentum cooling further, leading to reduced expectations for short-term interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [1][2]. Group 2: USD Strength and Technical Analysis - The USD is supported by policy expectations, with the dollar index at 97.774 (up 0.13%) as of February 5, providing support for the USD/JPY pair [2]. - Technically, the USD/JPY has broken through the 156.50 resistance level and is in a strong consolidation phase, with MACD indicating bullish momentum but with diminishing strength, and the relative strength index nearing high levels, suggesting limited upward space [2]. - The 157 level is identified as a critical resistance point; if sustained, it could open further upward movement, while failure to hold may lead to a retracement to 156.50 [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The outcome of the upcoming election is seen as a key short-term factor, with expectations that a significant victory for the ruling party could push the exchange rate towards 160, while a less favorable outcome could see it drop to 151 [2]. - The short-term outlook for USD/JPY remains focused on high-level fluctuations, influenced by the Japanese election results, the divergence in monetary policies between Japan and the US, and the shifting expectations for Fed rate cuts [2].

当前市场核心聚焦欧、英两大央行政策决议。欧央行预计按兵不动，拉加德对通胀与增长的表态将主导 预期：强调复苏乏力、通胀回落或暗示降息，将施压欧元；警惕通胀韧性、维持政策耐心，则支撑欧元 相对强势。英国央行大概率维持3.75%利率不变，货币政策报告及贝利对降息节奏的表述为关键：承认 通胀快速回落、劳动力市场转弱，将提升降息预期利空英镑；担忧通胀粘性、强调政策审慎，或提振英 镑并抑制欧元兑英镑上行。汇市已进入央行措辞驱动的预期再定价阶段，政策鹰派程度直接决定货币相 对强弱。 技术面，欧元兑英镑处于区间震荡格局，汇价在0.8611-0.8796区间内拉锯，当前0.8670位于区间中轴。 上方0.8700为关键心理与交易阻力，突破后需站稳0.8744反弹高点，方可再度试探0.8796前高；下方支 撑聚焦0.8643前期低点及0.8611阶段底部，若英央行偏鹰或欧元区数据走弱，支撑失守将打开下行空 间，整体维持区间博弈、等待央行决议指引方向。 2月6日回溯2月5日周四，欧元兑英镑欧洲时段于0.8670附近交投，日内涨幅超0.30%。欧元此番反弹并 非自身动能走强，而是英镑在英国央行利率决议前遭短线抛压，市场谨慎情绪升温推 ...

Geopolitical Analysis - Iran's Foreign Minister, Amir-Abdollahian, leads a delegation to Muscat, Oman for nuclear negotiations with the U.S., focusing solely on nuclear issues, dismissing media speculation on other topics [2][15] - Federal Reserve Governor Cook emphasizes the need to bring inflation back to target levels to maintain credibility, noting upward risks to inflation and high uncertainty in economic outlook [2][15] Economic Data - In January, U.S. Challenger job cuts surged to 108,400, with new job additions at only 5,300, marking the worst performance in 17 years for the same period [2][15] - Job openings in December fell significantly to 6.54 million, the lowest since 2020, while initial jobless claims unexpectedly rose by 22,000 to 231,000 [2][15] Futures Market Overview - On February 5, 2026, the main gold contract opened at 1131.84 CNY/g and closed at 1105.76 CNY/g, a decrease of 3.15% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 41,087 contracts [3][16] - The main silver contract opened at 23,550.00 CNY/kg and closed at 20,255.00 CNY/kg, down 13.85%, with a trading volume of 1,653,202 contracts [3][16] Bond Market Insights - On February 5, 2026, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield remained stable at 4.176%, with the yield spread between 10-year and 2-year notes at 0.734% [4][16] Precious Metals Holdings and Trading Volume - On February 5, 2026, the total trading volume for gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 61,992 kg, down 11.04% from the previous day, while silver trading volume increased by 50.84% to 790,380 kg [20] - Gold ETF holdings were stable at 1,081.95 tons, while silver ETF holdings decreased by 68 tons to 16,370 tons [6][18] Market Strategy - Gold is viewed cautiously bullish, with expectations of a fluctuating price range between 1,050 CNY/g and 1,150 CNY/g due to a slight decrease in investment demand [9][22] - Silver is assessed as neutral, with significant price declines expected to continue, maintaining a trading range between 16,500 CNY/kg and 19,500 CNY/kg [10][23]

Core Viewpoint - The financial market is experiencing a mixed performance with a generally loose liquidity environment, a recovery in the bond market, and a decline in convertible bond indices and individual securities [1][9]. Group 1: Domestic News - The State Administration for Market Regulation is advancing the construction of a unified national market to enhance the vitality of various business entities and promote high-quality economic development [2]. - The Ministry of Commerce reported that by 2025, China's service trade is expected to grow steadily, with a total import and export value of 80,823.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.4% [3]. - A new policy has been implemented in Hainan Free Trade Port, allowing residents to purchase imported goods with a zero tariff policy, with an annual exemption limit of 10,000 yuan per person [4]. Group 2: International News - The U.S. JOLTS job openings fell to 6.542 million in December, the lowest level since September 2020, indicating a weakening demand for labor in an uneven job market [5]. - The European Central Bank has maintained its deposit rate at 2% for the fifth consecutive time, emphasizing the need for structural reforms amid geopolitical uncertainties and challenges in the external environment [6]. Group 3: Commodity Market - International crude oil futures prices fell, with WTI crude down by $1.85 to $63.29 per barrel, while natural gas prices continued to rise [7]. Group 4: Financial Market Operations - On February 5, the central bank conducted a 1,185 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net liquidity injection of 645 billion yuan for the day [8]. - The liquidity environment remains loose, with the DR001 and DR007 rates declining to 1.319% and 1.482%, respectively [9]. Group 5: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market showed signs of recovery, with the yield on the 10-year government bond falling by 0.50 basis points to 1.8080% [11]. - In the secondary market, two industrial bonds experienced significant price deviations, with "H1碧地03" rising over 20% and "H0中骏02" increasing by over 264% [13]. - The convertible bond market saw a collective decline, with major indices down by 0.84% to 0.95%, and a total trading volume of 740.66 billion yuan [17]. Group 6: Overseas Bond Market - U.S. Treasury yields fell significantly, with the 2-year yield down 10 basis points to 3.47% and the 10-year yield down 8 basis points to 4.21% [20]. - In the European bond market, most major economies saw a decline in 10-year government bond yields, with Germany's yield down 2 basis points to 2.84% [21].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2026-02-06 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-01-19 | 2025/12 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.4 | | 2026-01-31 | 2026/01 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.3 | 49.0 | 49.1 | | 2026-01-31 | 2026/01 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活动 | % | 49.4 | 50.1 | 50.2 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | 社会融资规模:当月值 | 亿元 | 22075 | 35299 | 28537 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | M0:同比 | % | 10.2 | 11.5 | 13.0 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | M1:同比 | % | 3.8 | 7.2 ...

地缘方面，伊朗外交部长阿拉格齐率领的代表团抵达阿曼首都马斯喀特，将出席与美国代表团举行的核 问题谈判。据悉，代表团成员还包括伊朗外交部政治事务副部长拉万奇、法律与国际事务副部长加里巴 巴迪以及外交部发言人巴加埃等多名外交官。一名谈判代表团成员表示，本轮对话的重点将仅限于核问 题，媒体关于其他潜在议题的各种猜测均不属实，也无法得到确认。美联储方面，美联储理事库克表 示，美联储必须在近期将通胀率拉回目标水平，这对于维护其信誉至关重要。库克认为，目前风险偏向 于通胀上行，同时经济前景不确定性仍处高位。经济数据方面，美国1月挑战者裁员数量飙升至10.84万 人，新增招聘岗位仅5300多个，均创17年来同期最差。去年12月职位空缺数量大幅下降至654万，为 2020年以来最低。上周初请失业金人数则意外大增2.2万至23.1万。当下 白银价格继续大幅下挫，美股 riskoff情绪短期难以完全出清，流动性限制或成为诱发大跌的主要原因之一；白银本身价格预计同样维 持大幅震荡格局。 ...

消息面上，国际贵金属持续下行，2月6日早，金银开盘延续下跌，现货黄金一度跌破4700美元关口，日 内跌幅超1%；现货白银最低触及64.035美元/盎司，昨日收跌逾20%，回吐年初至今涨幅。昨晚公布的 美国12月JOLTS职位空缺创五年多新低，远低于预期。美国挑战者企业1月裁员10.8万人，创2009年以 来同期新高，环比激增205%。此外，美联储理事库克表示，美联储必须在近期将通胀率拉回目标水 平，这对于维护其信誉至关重要。库克认为，目前风险偏向于通胀上行，同时经济前景不确定性仍处高 位。 智通财经APP获悉，黄金股集体低开，截至发稿，中国黄金国际(02099)跌5.36%，报180港元；灵宝黄 金(03330)跌5.11%，报20.78港元；山东黄金(01787)跌5.11%，报36.74港元；赤峰黄金(06693)跌4.74%， 报33.8港元。 ...

转自：新华财经 【资讯导读】 •欧洲央行维持利率不变 未就未来政策路径给出指引 •英国央行"按兵不动" 称利率"可能进一步下调" •美国1月挑战者裁员数量飙升至10.84万人 •墨西哥央行维持利率不变 •世界黄金协会：1月全球黄金ETF吸引创纪录的187亿美元资金流入 •英国央行维持基准利率在3.75%不变，但九名货币政策委员中有四人投票支持降息25个基点，释放了强 烈的鸽派信号。英国央行行长贝利也指出，今年应该有进一步降息的空间。 •美联储理事库克表示，美联储必须在近期将通胀率拉回目标水平，这对于维护其信誉至关重要。库克 认为，目前风险偏向于通胀上行，同时经济前景不确定性仍处高位。 •美国1月挑战者裁员数量飙升至10.84万人，新增招聘岗位仅5300多个，均创17年来同期最差。去年12 月职位空缺数量大幅下降至654万，为2020年以来最低。上周初请失业金人数则意外大增2.2万至23.1 万。 •欧盟正着手重新调整其全球最严格的碳市场规则，拟放宽对数以千计企业的减排要求。此举标志着该 地区在气候雄心与经济现实之间寻求新的平衡。 •法国计划在下周欧盟领导人会议期间讨论欧元兑美元走强的问题，此次会议旨在商讨如何 ...

此外，美联储自身的表现也着实让人难以信服。过去一段时间，美国出现一定的通胀回落与增长放缓迹 象，但美联储的政策转向显得犹犹豫豫、表态也反复无常，导致市场预期多次摇摆。外界更加担心，这 会给政府提供介入"纠偏"的理由。 相比加强控制，提名沃什可能更多是一次面向市场的形象修复。"内部人履历"是沃什的一大优势。对市 场而言，作为曾经的美联储理事，沃什熟悉央行如何运作，也更能理解金融市场的政策反应。相较之 下，哈塞特作为白宫核心经济顾问，其"白宫传声筒"的印象很难得到债券投资者的信任，并可能导致白 宫与市场的观念进一步撕裂。 这种担忧并非空穴来风。2025年年末，市场对白宫提名哈塞特的担心，就集中在他可能更倾向于迎合白 宫，顶着高通胀推动激进降息。因此，对白宫来说，提名哈塞特短期内或许会更方便、更省力，但代价 可能会是更大的市场反弹、更高的不确定性，乃至通胀反复、资产过热与金融风险暴露。这就让公开主 张更低利率，并批评美联储扩权与资产负债表膨胀的沃什，看起来更像一个既能对内控制融资成本，也 能对外彰显"规则与纪律"的人选。因此，选择沃什或许可以在专业印象和市场心理两方面，对美联储的 独立性产生一定的修补作用。 过去一 ...