Group 1 - Walmart warns that U.S. tariffs are increasing its operating costs, with the impact expected to continue into Q3 and Q4 [1][4] - Despite an influx of customers seeking affordable products, Walmart's profit margins are under pressure, with Q2 revenue growth of 4.8% to $177.4 billion, but operating profit down 8.2% to $7.3 billion [1][5] - The company's stock fell 4.5%, marking its largest single-day decline in over four months [1] Group 2 - The cost pressure from tariffs is increasing weekly, with about one-third of Walmart's U.S. goods relying on imports from countries like China, Mexico, Vietnam, and India [4] - The same-store inflation rate rose 1.1% year-over-year in Q2, doubling from the previous quarter, but remains below the overall U.S. inflation rate [5] - Walmart has indicated the need to raise prices on certain items to offset tariff costs, which has drawn criticism from President Trump, who argues that tariffs do not lead to inflation [5]

Market Performance - The US stock market experienced a decline, with all three major indices closing lower, marking the S&P 500's fifth consecutive day of losses. The Dow Jones fell by 152.81 points (0.34%) to 44,785.50, the Nasdaq dropped by 72.55 points (0.34%) to 21,100.31, and the S&P 500 decreased by 25.61 points (0.40%) to 6,370.17 [3][2]. Chinese Assets - In contrast to the US market, Chinese assets showed strength, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising by 1.35%. Notable gains were seen in companies such as Xpeng Motors, which increased by nearly 12%, and NIO, which rose over 9%. Other companies like Tiger Brokers and Miniso also saw gains exceeding 6% [5][2]. Federal Reserve Commentary - Some Federal Reserve officials expressed a hawkish stance, emphasizing the need for continued moderate tightening to address high inflation levels. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester stated that there is no reason to lower interest rates at this time, while Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic suggested a potential rate cut later this year, albeit with significant uncertainty [7][8]. Legal Developments - A New York appellate court overturned a $500 million civil fraud penalty against former President Trump, which he described as a politically motivated attack. The New York Attorney General's office has since filed an appeal against this ruling [10][11][9]. International Relations - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announced the initiation of ceasefire negotiations regarding Gaza, aiming to secure the release of all Israeli captives and end the conflict under acceptable conditions. However, there are currently no plans for an Israeli delegation to negotiate in Qatar or Egypt [15][14].

Market Overview - On August 21, U.S. stock indices collectively declined, with the S&P 500 down 0.4%, the Dow Jones down 0.34%, and the Nasdaq down 0.34%, marking five consecutive declines for the S&P 500 and three for the Nasdaq [1][5] - The market is focused on the upcoming Jackson Hole global central bank conference, where Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to deliver a key speech regarding future monetary policy [2][3] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve officials, including Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, and Kansas City Fed President Esther George, have expressed cautious signals, emphasizing that monetary policy should rely on data and are not in a hurry to cut rates [2][3] - Mester stated that current inflation levels remain too high and have been on the rise over the past year, indicating no reason to lower rates at this time [2] - Bostic believes that the current federal funds rate target range of 4.25%-4.5% is slightly tight and acknowledges significant uncertainty regarding the need for rate cuts [3] Economic Indicators - According to S&P Global, the U.S. manufacturing PMI expanded at its fastest pace in over three years due to stronger demand, contributing to a composite PMI that reached its highest level of the year in August [2] - This expansion has intensified ongoing inflationary pressures, as companies are increasingly passing on rising costs to customers [2] Walmart Financial Performance - Walmart reported second-quarter revenue of $177.4 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $176.16 billion, but adjusted earnings per share of $0.68 fell short of the expected $0.74, marking the first time in three years that profits did not meet expectations [6] - Walmart raised its full-year sales growth forecast to between 3.75% and 4.75%, up from the previous estimate of 3% to 4% [6] Chinese Stocks Performance - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 1.35%, with notable gains in several Chinese companies such as XPeng Motors, which saw a nearly 12% increase, and NIO, which rose over 9% [7] - XPeng Motors reported a significant revenue increase of 125.3% year-over-year for Q2 2025, driven by a record high delivery volume of 103,200 vehicles, a 241.6% increase compared to the same period last year [7]

Group 1 - Major U.S. retailers, including Walmart and Home Depot, express optimism about consumer resilience despite potential challenges from rising prices due to tariffs [1][2] - Walmart raised its full-year performance expectations based on strong sales momentum, while Home Depot reported that customer spending remains "very healthy" [1] - Target's sales are still declining year-over-year, but the performance is better than expected, indicating a mixed retail environment [1] Group 2 - Retailers are facing increased costs as new inventory is subject to higher tariffs, which may lead to price increases in the latter half of the year [2][3] - The impact of price increases is uncertain, as retailers have different strategies for passing on costs to consumers [2] - Consumers are becoming more price-sensitive, seeking value through second-hand stores and private label products, indicating a shift in spending behavior [3] Group 3 - Analysts predict that inflation will accelerate in the second half of the year as retailers deplete pre-tariff inventory and pass on more costs to consumers [3][4] - The holiday shopping season is expected to be subdued due to rising essential goods prices, which will limit disposable income for budget-sensitive consumers [3]

智通财经APP获悉，芝加哥联储主席奥斯坦·古尔斯比表示，尽管近期一些通胀数据好于预期，但他希 望一个"危险"的数据点只是昙花一现。 古尔斯比周四在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔美联储年会间隙接受采访时表示，"此前多个通胀报告数据都比预 期温和，这让我感到欣慰。""但最新通胀报告显示，服务业通胀率突然飙升——这可能与关税无关。这 是个危险的数据点，我希望这只是暂时现象。" 鉴于关税对经济影响的不确定性升高，美联储今年一直维持利率稳定。美联储主席鲍威尔将于周五发表 备受期待的演讲，投资者将从中寻找政策制定者下月可能采取行动的线索。 本月早些时候，古尔斯比曾表示经济前景仍然复杂，美联储需要等待更多数据才能调整利率。他是今年 联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)具有投票权的成员。 古尔斯比发表上述言论之际，美联储正面临特朗普政府加强审查，公众也在呼吁降息。本周总统要求美 联储理事丽莎·库克辞职，理由是涉嫌抵押贷款欺诈。库克表示不会迫于威胁辞职。 他表示，美联储9月政策会议"在我看来将是一次实时决策的会议"。 在另一次接受的采访中，波士顿联储主席苏珊·柯林斯暗示，如果劳动力市场状况恶化程度超过通胀风 险上升幅度，9月份降息可能是合适的。 ...

Group 1 - The Jackson Hole global central bank conference is being closely watched, particularly for comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, with concerns about hawkish signals potentially causing market volatility [1] - Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stated that inflation pressures have not subsided and there is currently no basis for immediate rate cuts, emphasizing an open-minded approach to each meeting [2] - Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid noted that inflation is closer to 3% than 2%, warning that premature easing could harm public expectations, and highlighted that the current interest rate range of 4.25% to 4.5% has not significantly restrained the economy [2] Group 2 - The theme of this year's conference focuses on the labor market, which has alleviated some investor concerns about the Fed emphasizing inflation and independence [2] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September are close to 80%, with potential for four cuts over the next year, although some strategists caution that optimism regarding easing may be excessive [2] - Political pressures are mounting, with President Trump criticizing Powell for not cutting rates promptly and calling for the resignation of Fed Governor Lisa Cook due to alleged violations related to a mortgage application [6]

早上好，来看一些热点消息。 美联储，大消息！ 8月21日晚间，美联储发生了多件大事。 第一，美国司法部计划调查美联储理事丽莎.库克。一名司法部高官周四致信美联储主席鲍威尔，告知 此项调查并敦促他将库克移出理事会。 司法部官员埃德.马丁在信中告诉鲍威尔，库克的案件"需要进一步审查"。马丁写道："在此，我敦促你 将库克女士从董事会中移除。今天就行动，否则为时已晚！毕竟，没有美国人会认为在这种阴云笼罩的 情况下，她继续任职是合适的。"在此之前，特朗普已呼吁库克辞职。库克周三回应称，她打算留在央 行。 库克通过美联储发言人发表书面声明称："我绝不会因为一条推文里提出的问题就被迫辞职。作为美联 储成员，我会认真对待任何关于我财务历史的问题，因此我正在收集准确的信息，以便回应任何合法质 询并提供事实。" 第二，克利夫兰联储主席贝丝.哈马克表示，如果美联储明天就要作出政策决定，她不会支持降息。 哈马克周四在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔接受采访时表示："目前通胀依然过高，并且在过去一年呈现上行趋 势。根据我掌握的信息，如果会议在明天举行，我看不到降息的理由。" 其他在周三和周四发声的美联储官员也表达了与哈马克类似的鹰派立场。堪萨斯城联 ...

21日，克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克（Beth Hammack）直言，通胀压力尚未消退，目前缺乏立即降息的依 据。她表示将"以开放心态对待每一次会议"，但现有数据并不足以支撑政策放松。 堪萨斯城联储主席施密德（Jeff Schmid）的表态更为直接。他提到，通胀"仍更接近3%而非2%"，若过 早放松政策，可能损害公众预期。他强调，现行4.25%至4.5%的利率区间"并未对经济造成明显抑制"， 因此没有理由仓促行动。"最后一段路最难，"施密德表示，美联储必须谨慎评估降息对通胀心态的长期 影响。 作者 |第一财经 胡弋杰 当地时间8月21日，杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会在美国怀俄明州召开。市场高度关注美联储主席鲍威尔将 在22日的讲话，担心他释放鹰派信号，引发新一轮市场震荡。与此同时，多位地区联储主席在会议间隙 接受采访，传递出偏谨慎的态度。 宽松预期或过度 2025.08.22 本文字数：1288，阅读时长大约2分钟 澳新银行策略师罗德里戈·卡特里尔（Rodrigo Catril）分析，如果特朗普推动的斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）顺利进入美联储理事会，美联储七名理事中可能会有四人倾向支持降息，从而在一定程度上 ...

民生银行首席经济学家温彬告诉记者，上周（8月11日至8月15日）美国三大重要通胀数据先后发布，分 别是消费者物价指数（CPI）、PPI和进口价格指数。除7月份整体CPI略低于预期外，核心CPI、PPI和 进口价格指数均显示出通胀压力，密歇根大学通胀预期再次反弹，美联储官员则再次收紧降息预期。 8月21日的FedWatch数据显示，市场押注美联储9月份降息25个基点的概率为81.2%，较一周前的92.1% 水平有所下降。押注美联储9月不降息的概率为18.8%。 本报记者 韩 昱 8月21日，美联储公布了最新的货币政策会议纪要（以下简称"纪要"）。纪要显示，多数美联储官员在 上月会议中认为美国通胀风险相对就业市场更值得担忧。尽管同时关注到物价压力和就业疲软，但主流 观点认为"通胀上行风险是更严峻的一方"。 往前回溯，美联储在7月份货币政策会议上连续第五次维持利率不变，符合市场普遍预期，但是该次投 票结果为9票赞成、2票反对，1位美联储理事缺席未投票，两位美联储理事——米歇尔·鲍曼和克里斯托 弗·沃勒投下反对票。这是自1993年末以来首次出现两名美联储理事对利率决议持反对立场的情况。 纪要也显示，对于美国通胀和就业 ...

2025.08. 22 本文字数：1288，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 胡弋杰 当地时间8月21日，杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会在美国怀俄明州召开。市场高度关注美联储主席鲍威尔 将在22日的讲话，担心他释放鹰派信号，引发新一轮市场震荡。与此同时，多位地区联储主席在会 议间隙接受采访，传递出偏谨慎的态度。 宽松预期或过度 21日，克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克（Beth Hammack）直言，通胀压力尚未消退，目前缺乏立即降息 的依据。她表示将"以开放心态对待每一次会议"，但现有数据并不足以支撑政策放松。 堪萨斯城联储主席施密德（Jeff Schmid）的表态更为直接。他提到，通胀"仍更接近3%而非 2%"，若过早放松政策，可能损害公众预期。他强调，现行4.25%至4.5%的利率区间"并未对经济 造成明显抑制"，因此没有理由仓促行动。"最后一段路最难，"施密德表示，美联储必须谨慎评估降 息对通胀心态的长期影响。 今年年会的主题聚焦劳动力市场，这让部分投资者对央行可能强调通胀和独立性的担忧暂时缓解。东 京资产管理公司Simplex基金经理千叶（Chiba）分析称："一度有人猜测央行官员会释放更强硬的 内部分歧与政治 ...