Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the "old-for-new" consumption policy in Shuozhou City has significantly stimulated consumer spending, with a total of 721.709 million yuan in government subsidies leading to 4.86 billion yuan in direct consumption, demonstrating a leverage effect of 6.73 times [2]. Group 1: Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly participating in the "old-for-new" program, with many opting to replace old appliances and vehicles for energy-efficient models, resulting in substantial savings [2][3]. - Middle-aged and elderly customers are particularly active in purchasing new home appliances, often trading in appliances that have been in use for over ten years [2]. - Young families are more inclined to trade in old vehicles, benefiting from significant subsidies and reduced fuel costs [2]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The policy has led to a noticeable increase in sales for retailers, with specific examples such as a car dealership selling 128 units of a particular vehicle series due to the "old-for-new" initiative [4]. - The recycling of old appliances has also increased, with a higher monthly collection volume reported, indicating a positive trend in material reuse [4]. - The overall economic activity in the city is reflected in the vibrant atmosphere of commercial streets, where new purchases and recycling efforts are intertwined [4].

另一方面，以旧换新政策持续显效，激发消费潜力。以广东为例，广东省统计局发布的4月经济运行数 据显示，限额以上家用电器和音像器材类、家具类、建筑及装潢材料类商品零售额分别增长86.9%、 123.5%、156.9%，家具建材零售增速现新高，消费市场整体表现亮眼，以旧换新也促进了相关产业的 转型发展。 从具体消费数据来看，4月体育娱乐用品零售额大幅增长23.3%。金银珠宝等升级类商品需求旺盛，服 务消费增速高于商品零售，显示消费向体验型消费转变。 近日，国务院召开做强国内大循环工作推进会，提出要深挖潜力提振消费，推动大宗消费更新升级，激 发服务消费潜力，放大新兴消费带动效应。据国家统计局公布数据，4月社会消费品零售总额37174亿 元，同比增长5.1%。表明消费者信心和预期回升改善，也反映了消费市场在推动经济增长中的重要作 用。 毕马威中国客户及业务发展主管合伙人江立勤强调："消费市场的创新活力对于推动宏观经济高质量发 展具有至关重要的作用。从科技赋能的新消费场景，到国潮品牌的沉浸式体验消费，中国消费市场的动 能被不断激发。" 往届评选结果显示，消费行业呈现"老牌企业主导、中坚力量稳步增长、新兴企业崭露头角"的特 ...

Core Insights - Chongqing's retail sales of consumer goods reached 538.54 billion yuan in the first four months of the year, marking a year-on-year growth of 4.4% and leading among five international consumption center cities for five consecutive quarters [1] Group 1: Consumption Policies and Impact - The "old-for-new" subsidy policy has significantly boosted consumption, directly driving over 30 billion yuan in sales [2][6] - The implementation of the subsidy policy led to a 70%-80% increase in daily sales at the JD Mall in Yangjiaqing, with average daily sales exceeding 20 million yuan [2][6] - The city has secured 3.0 billion yuan in central government funding for consumption subsidies, which has supported various programs including automobile and home appliance replacements [7] Group 2: Night Economy and Tourism - Chongqing has been recognized as the top city in China's "Top Ten Night Economy Influential Cities," with significant increases in foot traffic and revenue in tourist areas like Longmenhao Old Street [8][10] - Longmenhao Old Street saw a 187% increase in visitor numbers and a 272% increase in revenue compared to the previous year, with daily visitor peaks reaching 58,000 [10][11] Group 3: County Economic Development - Rongchang district achieved 2.0 billion yuan in retail sales over five days during the May Day holiday, driven by local specialties and effective marketing strategies [13] - The district's initiatives, including a 5 million yuan investment in non-heritage crafts and a 1 million yuan fund for the local goose industry, have significantly enhanced local economic activity [14]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant impact of the "old-for-new" subsidy policy in Jin City, which has led to increased consumer traffic and sales in home appliance stores, particularly during weekends [1][2] - Jin City plans to expand the subsidy policy in 2025 to include more categories such as mobile phones, tablets, and smart wearable devices, indicating a broader approach to consumer electronics [1] - The second "Home Decoration 'Renewal' Shopping Festival" in Jin City was the largest ever, showcasing the growing trend of consumer engagement in home improvement and appliance upgrades [1][2] Group 2 - The 2024 home decoration "Renewal" shopping festival saw a significant expansion in the subsidy range from 9 to 40 categories, with a notable increase in subsidy amounts, allowing for a maximum cumulative subsidy of up to 18,000 yuan [2] - The total sales during the shopping festival exceeded 200 million yuan, doubling the sales from the first event, which also positively influenced the sales of home appliances under the "old-for-new" scheme [2] - As of May 25, 2025, Jin City has allocated 333 million yuan in subsidies, driving a total consumption of 2.2 billion yuan across various categories, including automobiles, 3C digital products, home appliances, and electric bicycles [2][3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Stock Index: Neutral, with an expectation of a volatile trend [1] - Treasury Bonds: Bearish [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Stock Index**: On May 28, most A - share market indices pulled back. In April, economic data showed a decline compared to March but remained resilient. The social credit demand was weak. Recently, multiple departments announced policies to support the capital market, and internal policy efforts are the main theme for the stock index in 2025. These measures are conducive to helping enterprises repair their balance sheets, promoting the stable development of the real economy, and steadily increasing stock market valuations [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures closed with slight declines across various tenors. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of funds. In the short - term, the bond market is unlikely to have a trend - based market. After macro - level disturbances, the bond market will fluctuate according to the capital situation and economic fundamentals. Short - term attention should be paid to the May PMI data and whether the central bank restarts treasury bond trading operations [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Stock Index**: On May 28, the Wind All - A index dropped 0.2% with a trading volume of 1.03 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and SSE 300 indices all declined. The consumer sector was relatively strong, while the basic chemicals and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors were weak. In April, the year - on - year growth of social retail sales was 5.1%, supported by the "trade - in" policy. The cumulative new RMB loans in April were 10.06 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.86%, and the year - on - year growth of M2 was 8%. The joint statement between China and the US laid a good foundation for future trade negotiations. The central bank announced reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and regulatory authorities introduced measures to support the capital market. In the first quarter, the decline in the revenue growth rate of A - share listed companies narrowed for three consecutive quarters, and the net profit increased year - on - year by about 4%, but the ROE was still in the bottom - building stage [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: On May 28, the 30 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures main contracts declined, and the 10 - year main contract was basically stable. The central bank conducted 2155 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 1570 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 585 billion yuan. The weighted average interest rates in the inter - bank and exchange repurchase markets showed different trends. In the short - term, the bond market lacks a clear trend [2] 3.2 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On May 28, compared with May 27, the IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts all declined, with declines of - 0.12%, - 0.11%, - 0.18%, and - 0.27% respectively [3] - **Stock Indices**: The SSE 50, SSE 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices all declined on May 28 compared with May 27, with declines of - 0.08%, - 0.08%, - 0.26%, and - 0.40% respectively [3] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On May 28, compared with May 27, the TS, TF, and TL contracts declined, and the T contract was basically stable [3] - **Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds increased, while the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds decreased [3] 3.3 Market News - From January to April, the total operating revenue of national state - owned and state - holding enterprises was flat compared with the previous year, and the total profit was 1349.14 billion yuan, a year - on - year decline of 1.7% [4] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report provides charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts [6][7][10] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report includes charts of the trends, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates of treasury bond futures main contracts, as well as the yields of treasury bond spot bonds [13][15][17] - **Exchange Rates**: The report presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and exchange rates between major currencies [20][21][24]

Core Insights - The "2025 Zhejiang Renewal Consumption Season" will take place from May 29 to June 2 in Hangzhou, featuring nearly 80 brands and integrating various consumer experiences such as trade-in programs and direct supply of foreign trade products [1] Group 1: Event Overview - The event will include a themed exhibition called "Renewal Street" and a market for foreign trade products, aiming to create a comprehensive consumption experience [1] - The event is organized by the Zhejiang Provincial Department of Commerce in collaboration with multiple departments [1] Group 2: Consumer Experience - "Renewal Street" will focus on popular consumption trends such as tourism and the silver economy, creating immersive scenarios for "home life" and "enjoying travel" [2] - Various automotive brands will showcase models with significant discounts, including up to 1200 yuan in subsidies for selected vehicles [2] Group 3: Smart Home Innovations - Xiaomi will present its "immersive home" experience with products like the Mi Refrigerator Pro and Mi Water Purifier Pro, emphasizing a full ecosystem of smart home devices [3] - The event will also feature "age-friendly" technologies such as assistive sofas and electric wheelchairs, catering to the elderly demographic [3] Group 4: Foreign Trade Integration - The "Foreign Trade Quality Products in the Community" initiative allows consumers to purchase international brand products directly in their neighborhoods, showcasing Zhejiang's manufacturing capabilities [4] - The event will feature a variety of products from Zhejiang's industries, including electronics and textiles, with discounts of up to 30% off retail prices [4] Group 5: Financial Incentives - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) will offer promotional coupons for consumers using their credit cards at participating vendors, enhancing the shopping experience [4] - The event will also include interactive activities to engage consumers and promote technological innovations [4]

Group 1: Travel Trends - The Dragon Boat Festival travel market is expected to be dominated by short trips, with a focus on cultural experiences and seasonal cuisine, particularly in regions like the Yangtze River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Pearl River Delta, and Sichuan-Chongqing [2] - National surrounding travel bookings are projected to increase by 23% year-on-year, while searches for cultural experience tours during the Dragon Boat Festival have surged by 50% [2] - The rise in data reflects consumers' preference for personalized, diverse, and high-quality cultural tourism experiences, highlighting the dual development of cultural heritage and tourism industry value [2] Group 2: Cultural and Tourism Activities - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism has initiated various cultural and tourism consumption promotion activities, encouraging localities to host unique events during holidays like the Dragon Boat Festival [2] - Regions with rich cultural heritage, such as Chengdu, Luoyang, and Wuzhen, are launching themed activities that incorporate traditional customs and intangible cultural heritage [3] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Economic Impact - The holiday period is a key driver for service consumption, with significant growth in tourism, travel, and communication services observed in early 2023 [3] - As income levels rise and consumer attitudes shift, there is a growing emphasis on service quality, experience, and personalization, leading to a transition from goods consumption to service consumption [3] Group 4: E-commerce and Financial Initiatives - E-commerce platforms are launching various promotional activities to boost consumption during the Dragon Boat Festival and the upcoming "6.18" shopping festival, leveraging government subsidy policies [5] - Financial institutions are also introducing special offers to stimulate demand for consumer electronics, with initiatives like trade-in programs and interest-free installment plans [6] - The integration of financial services with trade-in policies aims to enhance consumer convenience and align with diverse consumption needs, contributing to the high-quality development of the consumption market [6]

Group 1: Economic Policy and Consumer Trends - The core theme for 2025 is to boost consumption, with a focus on domestic demand and internal circulation as unique advantages of the economy [1] - The "Domestic Circulation Work Promotion Meeting" emphasized the need to tap into potential consumption, upgrade bulk consumption, and stimulate service consumption [1] - April's consumer data showed a positive trend, with retail sales of consumer goods increasing by 4.7% year-on-year in the first four months, slightly accelerating from the first quarter [2] Group 2: Retail Performance and E-commerce Growth - Retail sales of household appliances and related categories saw significant growth in April, with categories like home appliances and audio-visual equipment increasing by 38.8% year-on-year [4] - Online retail sales of physical goods grew by 5.8% in the first four months, continuing to outpace overall retail sales growth [4] Group 3: Promotional Events and Policy Support - The "618" shopping festival began a week early on May 13, 2025, combining with the "old-for-new" policy to invigorate the consumer market [5] - The subsidy range for the "old-for-new" policy expanded from 8 to 12 categories of home appliances, with subsidy rates increased to 15%-20% [5] - Sales of home appliances increased by 4.7% online and 12.8% offline following the implementation of the policy [5] Group 4: International Consumption and Tax Policies - The optimization of the departure tax refund policy is expected to stimulate inbound consumption, with the threshold for refunds lowered from 500 yuan to 200 yuan [7][8] - The number of inbound tourists is projected to reach 130 million in 2024, with cultural and tourism consumption becoming a new growth point [8] - A dual-driven consumption model combining goods and services is emerging, providing broader value opportunities for the consumer sector [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, specifically recommending companies such as Yadea Holdings, Aima Technology, and Ninebot [11]. Core Insights - The Chinese electric two-wheeler industry is entering a mature development phase characterized by "stock replacement dominance and structural incremental support." The domestic market is seeing high ownership levels, and the implementation of new national standards is accelerating industry consolidation, with both cost and supply pressures squeezing smaller brands [3][6]. - Incremental growth is focused on B-end commercial scenarios (instant delivery/shared mobility) and C-end smart upgrades. The expansion of the old-for-new subsidy program in 2025 is expected to stimulate replacement demand [3][6]. - The overseas market, particularly in Europe and North America, is centered around electric bicycles (E-bikes), benefiting from environmental policies and low consumer price sensitivity. The Southeast Asian market shows long-term potential for electric motorcycles, although performance limitations and inadequate infrastructure hinder short-term replacement [3][8]. Summary by Sections Scale: Dominated by Stock Demand, Driven by Smartization and Policy - The electric two-wheeler market includes electric bicycles, electric light motorcycles, and electric motorcycles. The current market ownership is at a high level, with the average penetration rate reaching maturity. Although demand in high-tier cities and motorcycle replacement in lower-tier markets will support steady growth, the growth rate is expected to slow down [6][30]. - Incremental space is concentrated in two areas: B-end instant delivery and shared mobility, benefiting from the economic and flexible nature of electric two-wheelers, and C-end smart upgrades that drive consumer segmentation and product price increases [6][30]. Structure: New National Standards Implementation Optimizes the Landscape - The past changes in industry structure show that policy regulations (like new national standards) and market competition (price wars, channel expansion) create a dual selection mechanism. Leading companies can leverage scale effects to reduce costs and enhance R&D and distribution networks, while weaker brands face exit pressures due to compliance costs and low margins [7][9]. - The new national standards are expected to increase costs by 10%-15%, putting significant pressure on financially weak brands while allowing leading companies to expand market share [7][9]. Incremental Growth: Southeast Asia Policy Drives Potential, E-bike Opportunities in Europe and America - With the domestic market stabilizing, overseas markets are becoming core growth areas. The North American and European markets are primarily driven by mid-to-high-end E-bikes, with a favorable growth trend supported by consumer interest in sustainable transportation and government support [8][9]. - The Southeast Asian market focuses on high-cost-performance electric motorcycles, driven by commuting needs and "oil-to-electric" policies. However, performance gaps and infrastructure issues limit short-term penetration, with fuel vehicles remaining dominant [8][9]. Investment Recommendations: Domestic and International Synergy, Positive Demand Outlook - The domestic market is seeing accelerated concentration due to the new national standards, which pressure smaller brands while allowing leading companies to strengthen their market share through scale effects and technological differentiation [9]. - The overseas market presents opportunities, particularly in the E-bike sector in Europe and North America, where the fragmented competitive landscape offers entry points for Chinese brands [9].

Group 1 - The "Two New" policy is being actively promoted across various regions to optimize processes and enhance services [1] - Regions like Jiangxi, Hainan, and Guangdong are offering subsidies for "trade-in" programs for home appliances and new energy vehicles to stimulate market activity and consumer spending [1][5] - In Guangdong, the combination of government and enterprise subsidies is driving the growth of the new energy vehicle and automotive accessories market [5] Group 2 - Hebei's "trade-in" policy has expanded to cover a wide range of consumer goods, leading to over 10 billion yuan in sales this year [5] - In a recent shopping experience in Tangshan, a consumer benefited from a 20% national subsidy on a new air conditioner, along with additional discounts from manufacturers and retailers [7] - Qinghai has increased the number of categories eligible for agricultural machinery scrapping subsidies from 14 to 25, focusing on enhancing the standards for scrapping hand tractors and updating seeders and combine harvesters [9] Group 3 - Qinghai is implementing a "one-stop service" for the collection and scrapping of old agricultural machinery, resulting in over 2,600 new agricultural machines purchased this year, a 30% increase year-on-year [9]