Group 1 - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from "Aaa" to "Aa1" due to concerns over the growing $36 trillion debt, becoming the last of the three major credit rating agencies to do so [3] - The downgrade has raised concerns in the market, with analysts noting that it has brought many existing worries back into focus [3] - Major banks, including Bank of America and JPMorgan, saw their deposit ratings downgraded by Moody's, citing the weakened government support for these banks following the sovereign rating downgrade [4] Group 2 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 137.33 points, or 0.32%, closing at 42,792.07 points, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 saw minor increases [2] - Long-term U.S. Treasury yields fluctuated, with the 10-year yield reaching a high of 4.52% before settling at 4.47% [4] - Notable stock movements included a 1% increase in Microsoft shares, while Apple and Tesla saw declines of 1.1% and 2.2%, respectively [5]

摘要 • 中美关税调整反映了双方对高关税不可持续性的共识，美国需缓解供给冲 击以控制通胀，并通过延长关税豁免期来补充库存，为谈判争取时间。未 来需关注主要转口市场是否受美国出口管制影响，以及美国是否会继续利 用出口管制和转口限制。 • 对等关税出台后，比特币、黄金、欧元区及日本资产表现突出，印度市场 作为中国资产的替代也表现优异。近期关税缓释后，这些资产仍保持一定 优势，但黄金和美元近期处于震荡状态，不宜过度短期化长逻辑用于交易， 建议采用定投策略。 • 关税可能拖累全球增长，导致大宗商品价格波动，并影响美元信用和市场 信心。在美股上市的中概股公司首当其冲，反映了市场对对等关税问题的 担忧。美国经济滞胀风险被延后但未消除，高关税带来的供给通胀压力使 得美联储无法降息，加剧了衰退压力。 • 美联储降息预期因高关税受到抑制，若关税下降，降息概率将增加，但可 能是小幅度降息。目前美国通胀水平约为 4%，CPI 在 3.5%到 4%之间， 这使得美联储有一定空间进行降息。美股盈利受拖累程度有所降低，头部 科技公司资本开支提供支撑，纳斯达克估值已修复。 Q&A 中美关税"降级"的资产含义 20250519 中美关税降级 ...

2012 31 2025-05-19 F3014717 Z0013223 01 PART ONE 主要观点 | 影响因素 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | | 回顾 | 本周国内大宗商品震荡反弹，其中，工业品震荡反弹，农产品小幅走弱。主因一是，中美在日内瓦贸易会谈后发表联合声明，互相削减了大幅关税，刺激市场情绪 | | | 改善；二是，，一揽子金融政策将加快落实，提振市场信心，改善市场风险偏好；三是，美国4月通胀略低于预期，美联储降息预期再度升温。 | | 海外 | 1）当地时间5月12日，中美在日内瓦贸易会谈后发表联合声明，在90天内大幅削减高关税，但美方仍保留了2025年内对华加征的20%芬太尼关税和10%的对等关 | | | 税。然而即便美国与英国达成关税协议、与中国发布联合声明，但据耶鲁大学实验室测算，截至5月12日，2025年迄今的关税相当于美国平均有效关税税率提高了 | | | 15.4个百分点至17.8%(替代前)，仍是自1934年以来的最高水平。后续关注美国关税政策是否会有反复，例如2018年12月，中美元首在阿根廷G20峰会期间会晤， | | | 同意停止升级关税措施，而 201 ...

Report Title - Lead Weekly Report, dated May 19, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures fluctuated around 17,000 yuan/ton. Macroscopically, the unexpected reduction of Sino-US tariffs and the cooling inflation and economic slowdown in the US increased the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, improving market risk appetite, and the lead price followed the non-ferrous sector to run strongly. Fundamentally, primary lead smelters had both production cuts and restarts, with supply mainly recovering. In the off-season of consumption, the supply of waste batteries did not improve significantly, the procurement cost of recyclers increased, and they were reluctant to sell at low prices. Some previously减产 secondary lead smelters in Guangxi and Jiangsu restarted production, but under the background of raw material shortage and poor profits, smelters mostly operated at low loads, and the supply did not recover significantly. However, after the lead price rebounded, the profits of enterprises were repaired, and the expectation of a further expansion of production cuts weakened. On the consumption side, lead-acid batteries remained in the seasonal off-season, mostly digesting inventory and mainly making rigid purchases. Overall, Moody's downgraded the US credit rating, and the macro sentiment weakened marginally. Currently, the cost side supports the lead price, but consumption remains in the off-season. The rebound of the lead price repairs the profits of secondary lead smelters, the expectation of an expansion of production cuts weakens, and the pressure of inventory accumulation increases, suppressing the lead price trend. In the short term, long and short factors are intertwined, the lead price trend is stalemated, and it maintains a high-level consolidation operation [3][6][7] Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - From May 9th to May 16th, the SHFE lead price rose from 16,805 yuan/ton to 16,870 yuan/ton, an increase of 65 yuan/ton; the LME lead price rose from 1,985.5 US dollars/ton to 2,006 US dollars/ton, an increase of 20.5 US dollars/ton; the Shanghai-London ratio decreased from 8.46 to 8.41, a decrease of 0.05; the SHFE inventory increased from 49,504 tons to 55,472 tons, an increase of 5,968 tons; the LME inventory decreased from 253,425 tons to 248,850 tons, a decrease of 4,575 tons; the social inventory increased from 47,500 tons to 56,000 tons, an increase of 8,500 tons; the spot premium decreased from -90 yuan/ton to -130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton [4] 2. Market Review - Last week, the main PB2506 contract price of Shanghai lead futures fluctuated horizontally around 17,000 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 16,870 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.39%. On Friday night, it fluctuated narrowly. The concern about the US economic recession eased, the pressure on risk assets weakened, and LME lead continued to rebound, but the rebound pace slowed down near 2,000 US dollars/ton, and finally closed at 2,006 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.03%. In the spot market, as of May 16th, the price of Chihong lead in the Shanghai market was 16,935 - 16,960 yuan/ton, with a premium of 20 - 30 yuan/ton over the SHFE 2506 contract; the price of Honglu lead was 16,900 - 16,930 yuan/ton, with a discount of 20 - 0 yuan/ton to the 2506 contract; the price of Jiangtong lead in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was reported at 16,900 - 16,930 yuan/ton, with a discount of 20 - 0 yuan/ton to the 2506 contract. Sellers sold goods according to the market, a few enterprises were reluctant to sell at low prices, and the quotation changed from a discount to a premium. The ex-factory price of electrolytic lead smelters' factory-picked goods remained at a discount of 50 yuan/ton to a premium of 100 yuan/ton over the SMM 1 lead average price, and the secondary refined lead was quoted at a discount of 120 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead average price for ex-factory. Downstream enterprises mainly made rigid purchases and preferred large-discount goods with low prices [5] 3. Industry News - As of the week of May 16th, the weekly processing fees for domestic and foreign zinc concentrates were reported at 650 yuan/metal ton and -30 US dollars/dry ton respectively, remaining flat compared to the previous week [8] 4. Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, Shanghai-London ratio, SHFE and LME inventory situations, 1 lead premium and discount situations, LME lead premium and discount situations, primary lead and secondary refined lead price differences, waste battery prices, secondary lead enterprise profit situations, lead ore processing fees, primary lead production, secondary refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss situations [10][11][15][16][18][21][22][24][25]

Group 1 - The current silver price is $32.47 per ounce, with a daily high of $32.55 and a low of $32.21 [1][2] - The market is anticipating the release of the U.S. Conference Board's Leading Economic Index for April, which is expected to be favorable for silver prices [1] - The Federal Reserve's Vice Chairman Jefferson and New York Fed President Williams are scheduled to speak, which may influence market sentiment [1] Group 2 - Despite the U.S. CPI dropping to 2.3% year-on-year in April, the core CPI remains sticky at 2.8%, indicating persistent inflation [3] - The market's expectation for a rate cut in June has decreased to 30%, as Fed Chair Powell reiterated a cautious stance on rate cuts [3] - Moody's downgrade of U.S. debt ratings may increase financing costs, forcing the Fed to balance between tightening and economic stability [3] Group 3 - U.S. Treasury Secretary Basant mentioned that the Trump administration plans to impose new tariffs on certain countries, affecting trade negotiations [3][4] - Walmart has indicated plans to raise prices due to increased costs from imported goods, which may be a direct result of the tariffs [3][4] - Basant acknowledged that consumers might feel the impact of the tariffs, suggesting that some costs will be absorbed by companies while others may be passed on to consumers [4] Group 4 - Silver prices are influenced by gold's safe-haven attributes and fluctuating expectations of Fed rate cuts, with a current increase of 0.64% [4] - Technical analysis indicates short-term support levels at $32.10-$32.25 and resistance levels at $32.70-$33.00, with potential downward movement if prices fall below $32.10 [4]

投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 研 究 所 晨 会 观 点 精 [Table_Report] 分析师 贾利军 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-80128600-8630 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 【宏观】海外方面，美国总统表示将在未来两到三周内对许多国家征收新的关税， 美国关税风险重燃；而 ...

Group 1 - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 due to "huge fiscal deficits and rising interest costs," marking the loss of the last AAA rating after Fitch's downgrade in 2023, which caused global market turbulence [1] - Following the downgrade, spot gold prices surged, with SGE9999 gold price surpassing 750 yuan per gram, and the Shanghai Gold ETF (518600) seeing a trading volume exceeding 90 million yuan, indicating high market activity [1] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to multiple factors, including increased market concerns over U.S. dollar assets and historical data showing that gold prices typically rise in the three months following U.S. rating downgrades [1] Group 2 - Current gold prices have retraced approximately 8.1% from the peak on April 22, with mixed opinions on future trends; some believe gold prices may continue to adjust due to easing geopolitical risks, while others emphasize long-term support from global central bank gold purchases and U.S. fiscal deficit monetization [2] - The World Gold Council reported that global gold demand is expected to reach 1,206 tons in Q1 2025, a 1% year-on-year increase, providing solid buying support for gold prices [2] - The Shanghai Gold ETF (518600) and its linked funds offer efficient tracking of gold price movements without physical gold delivery, with flexible T+0 trading, making them effective tools for participating in gold market trends [2][4]

Group 1 - The recent easing of international trade tensions has led to a rapid recovery in market risk appetite, resulting in a significant decline in gold prices, with London gold spot prices dropping 3.66% to $3202.2 per ounce and COMEX gold futures falling 3.72% to $3205 per ounce [2] - Analysts indicate that the adjustment in precious metal prices is primarily due to the unexpected extent of the easing in trade tensions, prompting a shift of funds from safe-haven assets to riskier assets [2][3] - The geopolitical landscape has also contributed to the decline in gold prices, with expectations of improved U.S.-Iran relations and a reduction in tensions between India and Pakistan [3] Group 2 - Speculative net long positions in COMEX gold decreased by 1,300 contracts to 161,200 contracts, while the long-to-short ratio rebounded by 1.6% [3] - The outlook for precious metals remains mixed, with key resistance levels providing support, and expectations of a shift in U.S. Federal Reserve policy potentially limiting further price declines [3][4] - The market is advised to monitor changes in U.S. Treasury yields, as recent political disagreements have impacted market expectations significantly [5]

Group 1: Market Performance - The majority of Asia-Pacific stock markets recorded gains last week, with the Jakarta Composite Index leading with a weekly increase of 4.01% [1] - Other notable performances include the Nikkei 225 Index rising by 0.67%, the KOSPI Index increasing by 1.92%, and the S&P/ASX200 Index up by 1.37% [1][2] - Most Asia-Pacific stock markets have seen five consecutive weeks of increases, although some indices experienced slight pullbacks [2] Group 2: Economic Factors - The reduction of bilateral tariffs between the US and China has alleviated market tensions and boosted investor confidence, contributing to the rise in Asia-Pacific stock markets [2] - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April showed a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, lower than the expected 2.4%, which has led to increased expectations for interest rate cuts [2][3] - Economic fundamentals, such as better-than-expected export growth in China and Japan, are providing internal support for the rise in Asia-Pacific stock markets [2][3] Group 3: Foreign Investment - There has been a significant influx of foreign capital into Asia-Pacific markets, with overseas investors net buying over 8 trillion yen (approximately $57 billion) in Japanese stocks and bonds in April, the highest level since 2005 [3] - Thailand's stock market also saw strong foreign interest, with international funds net buying $9.95 million in Thai stocks, marking the highest level since February [4] Group 4: Currency Trends - Despite the rise in stock markets, most Asia-Pacific currencies depreciated against the US dollar last week, with the Thai baht down 1.12% and the Singapore dollar down 0.19% [5] - The future performance of Asia-Pacific currencies will largely depend on US Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations and China's economic policies [5] Group 5: Central Bank Actions - Central banks in Thailand and Malaysia may consider interest rate cuts to support their economies, while Indonesia and the Philippines have less incentive to lower rates [6] - The IMF has noted that Singapore's fiscal and monetary policies are adequately supporting its economy, with sufficient fiscal space to provide targeted support if needed [5] Group 6: Trade Dynamics - South Korea's exports to China have rebounded, with exports to China accounting for 21.8% of total exports in early May, driven by stable demand and deepening industrial ties [7][8] - Cooperation between Chinese and South Korean companies in sectors like electric vehicles and cosmetics is enhancing trade, with significant growth in exports of related materials and products [8]

Core Insights - Emerging market assets are experiencing a strong recovery, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index rising for five consecutive weeks, marking the longest streak in 2023 [1] - The MSCI Emerging Markets Stock Index increased by 3% to 3,278 points, reaching its highest level since October 2024, indicating a significant return of global capital to emerging economies [1] Currency Performance - The five-week rise in the currency index is attributed to the Federal Reserve's pause in interest rate hikes, leading to a decline in the US dollar index [3] - Currencies such as the Brazilian real, Indian rupee, and South African rand have appreciated over 2% against the dollar in the past month, with the Indonesian rupiah rising 1.8% in one week due to increased commodity exports [3] - Emerging market central banks have seen foreign exchange reserves grow for three consecutive months, enhancing their currency defense capabilities [3] Stock Market Dynamics - The stock index's performance is driven by structural opportunities, particularly in the semiconductor sector in Asia, which has benefited from surging demand for AI hardware, with tech stocks in South Korea and Taiwan averaging a 5.3% increase [3] - The consumer sector in Latin America has seen significant institutional investment following a decline in inflation in Brazil, leading to increased allocations [3] - Recent data indicates that emerging market equity funds saw a net inflow of $4.7 billion over the past two weeks, the highest level since Q3 2024 [3] Market Drivers - The current market rally is supported by three main drivers: expectations of a Fed rate cut in June, easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to lower oil prices, and confirmed policy continuity in countries like India and Mexico post-elections, boosting infrastructure and manufacturing investments [4] - The yield premium of emerging market local currency bonds over developed countries has widened to 400 basis points, attracting sovereign funds and pension funds for rebalancing [4] Regional Disparities - There are notable regional disparities, with Eastern European markets facing pressure from EU carbon tax regulations, and Argentina experiencing high currency volatility, indicating a need for deeper structural reforms [4] - Investors are advised to monitor Vietnam's GDP data, as its export-driven economy's ability to maintain recovery momentum could be crucial for the sustainability of emerging market growth [4] Valuation Metrics - As of the report, the forward P/E ratio for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index stands at 12.7 times, with a narrowing discount rate to developed countries at 18%, aligning with the five-year average [4] - If the US dollar index remains weak, emerging market assets are expected to continue generating excess returns in Q3 [4]