美国劳工统计局（BLS）将于今晚发布延迟的1月非农报告，同时进行年度基准修正和方法论更新。市 场预计此次修正将抹去约100万个就业岗位，这是美国就业统计史上规模最大的下修之一。 根据BLS初步估计，2024年4月至2025年3月期间的就业增长将下修75万至90万个岗位。此外，BLS还将 更新2025年4月至12月期间的企业出生-死亡预测数据，预计将再减少50万至70万个岗位。这意味着截至 2025年12月的非农就业数据中，多达100万个就业岗位实际上从未存在。 周三，据ZeroHedge及相关分析指出，此次修正将显著改变美国劳动力市场的实际状况。修正后的数据 将显示，劳动力市场早在2024年中期就已跌破"失速线"，当时三个月移动平均就业增长仅为5.5万，远 低于维持失业率稳定所需的18万。在经过季节性调整后，2025年至少有五个月的就业增长为负值。 此次调整的核心在于BLS终于决定修复其备受争议的"出生-死亡调整"模型。该模型此前因未能准确剔 除疫情期间为获取PPP贷款而产生的"虚假公司"数据，导致就业统计长期失真。新的计算方法将引入实 时样本信息，虽然长期看有助于提高数据准确性，但短期内将导致就业数据出现剧 ...

Group 1 - The speeches from two Federal Reserve officials provide important insights into the future direction of monetary policy [1][2] - Dallas Fed President Logan expressed cautious optimism about the current policy rate's ability to bring inflation back to target while maintaining labor market stability, highlighting concerns over persistent high inflation rather than labor market risks [1] - Cleveland Fed President Harmack stated that current monetary policy is in a good position and predicted that the Fed may maintain the status quo for a considerable time, with inflation expected to remain around 3% this year [2] Group 2 - The timing of the officials' speeches is significant as the U.S. Labor Department is set to release the January non-farm payroll report, which was delayed due to a government shutdown [2] - The current data environment for the Fed is complex, with stable employment market signs but persistent inflation challenges, leading to a cautious approach of maintaining interest rates to observe economic data developments [2] - As of the day of the speeches, the futures market indicated an over 80% probability that interest rates would remain unchanged in March, reflecting investors' understanding of the "data-dependent" policy framework [2]

Group 1: Monetary Policy Signals - The central bank maintains an optimistic outlook on the domestic economy, indicating conditions for stable growth in 2026[2] - The monetary policy will continue to focus on "implementing a moderately loose monetary policy" and "promoting economic stability as an important consideration" moving forward[7] - The social financing cost policy has shifted from "promoting cost reduction" to "promoting low-cost operation," suggesting a more cautious approach to interest rate cuts[8] Group 2: Economic Conditions - The central bank acknowledges global economic resilience but highlights risks such as persistent inflation and labor market cooling[3] - Domestic inflation shows positive changes, with CPI rising to its highest level since March 2023 by the end of 2025, indicating a recovery in price levels[6] - The report emphasizes the need for coordinated monetary and fiscal policies to enhance policy effectiveness and support economic growth[9] Group 3: Banking Sector Insights - The report discusses the "loss" of deposits to asset management products, indicating a change in the structure of bank liabilities without significantly affecting overall liquidity in the financial system[5] - The weighted average interest rate for new loans in December 2025 was 3.15%, down 0.09 percentage points from September, with corporate loans at 3.1%[8]

Monetary Policy Insights - By the end of 2025, the loan interest rate decreased by 10 basis points to 3.15%, with general loan rates falling by 12 basis points to 3.55%[2][10] - The central bank's excess reserve ratio rose to 1.5% by the end of 2025, up 0.1 percentage points from September and 0.4 percentage points year-on-year[2][10] Fiscal and Monetary Coordination - The report emphasizes the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies, highlighting three main modes of collaboration: supporting government bond issuance, using "re-lending + fiscal subsidies," and risk-sharing mechanisms[3][12] - The government is expected to be the main driver of leverage in 2026, with limited room for significant rate cuts due to the need to maintain low financing costs[3][12] Liquidity and Financial Structure - The central bank aims to merge asset management products with bank deposits to better observe liquidity, indicating that changes in deposit structure do not significantly affect total liquidity[4][13] - The growth rate of combined household and corporate deposits aligns closely with M2 growth, showing no significant volatility in overall liquidity[4][13] Economic Outlook and Policy Focus - The central bank expresses concerns over economic conditions, including trade barriers and inflation risks, while emphasizing the need for macro policy consistency and flexibility in counter-cyclical adjustments for 2026[5][15] - Future monetary policy will focus on expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply, with an emphasis on service consumption and new productive capacities[5][15] Risk Considerations - Potential risks include unexpected policy changes, slower-than-expected economic recovery, and the possibility of historical economic patterns not holding true in the current context[6][19][20]

Group 1: Monetary Policy Outlook - The central bank maintains an optimistic view on the domestic economy, expecting stable growth conditions for 2026, supported by solid foundations, new growth drivers, and strong policy support[2] - The monetary policy continues to emphasize "appropriate easing" and the importance of promoting stable economic growth as a key consideration[7] - The social financing cost outlook has shifted from "promoting cost reduction" to "promoting low-cost operation," indicating a more cautious approach to interest rate cuts[8] Group 2: Global Economic Concerns - The central bank has alleviated concerns about the global economy, citing short-term resilience in growth, but notes a divergence in performance among major economies[3] - Risks highlighted include persistent inflation, cooling labor markets, and increasing global trade uncertainties[3] - The central bank emphasizes the need for enhanced counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to improve macroeconomic governance[4] Group 3: Inflation and Price Trends - Global inflation remains sticky, with ongoing monitoring of the de-inflation process, particularly in the U.S., U.K., and Japan[6] - Domestic inflation shows positive changes, with the CPI rising to its highest level since March 2023 by the end of 2025, supported by improved supply-demand matching[6] - The central bank prioritizes promoting reasonable price recovery as a key aspect of monetary policy[6] Group 4: Banking Sector Dynamics - The report discusses the "loss" of bank deposits, indicating that while asset reallocation affects bank liabilities, it does not significantly alter overall liquidity in the financial system[9] - The weighted average interest rate for new loans in December 2025 was 3.15%, down 0.09 percentage points from September, with corporate loans at 3.1% and personal housing loans stable at 3.06%[8]

Core Viewpoint - The overall financial environment is tightening, with rising repo rates and fluctuations in bond markets, while the central bank emphasizes the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic growth and stabilize prices [2][8]. Domestic News - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) plans to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery, while ensuring sufficient liquidity in the banking system [2]. - In 2025, China's total social logistics reached 368.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, indicating stable logistics demand and strong support for the real economy [3]. International News - U.S. retail sales unexpectedly stagnated in December, with a month-on-month change of 0%, raising concerns about consumer spending, which is a key driver of U.S. economic growth [4]. - The New York Fed reported a significant rise in consumer debt delinquency rates, reaching 4.8%, the highest level in nearly a decade, with total household debt hitting a record high of $18.78 trillion [5]. Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market showed strong fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond yield falling below 1.80%, supported by institutional demand [9]. - On February 10, the 10-year government bond yield decreased by 0.50 basis points to 1.7950%, while the 10-year policy bank bond yield increased by 0.10 basis points to 1.9220% [10]. Credit Bonds - In the secondary market, several industrial bonds experienced significant price deviations, with some bonds dropping over 50% [11]. - Dragon Food's credit rating was downgraded from "A-" to "BBB" by a credit rating agency, maintaining a negative outlook [12]. Convertible Bonds - The convertible bond market saw a collective decline, with major indices dropping around 0.23% to 0.24%, and trading volume decreasing by 101.62 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [22]. - Upcoming listings include Longjian Convertible Bonds, and several companies announced early redemption conditions for their convertible bonds [24].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic macro - policy is centered on coordinated efforts to support economic development. The monetary policy coordinates with the fiscal policy through three paths, and there is a high probability of a 50BP reserve requirement ratio cut in the first quarter, releasing about 1 trillion in liquidity, and 1 - 2 policy rate cuts of 10 - 20BP throughout the year. The capital market's structural opportunities are dominated by policy coordination, industrial upgrading, and resource security. [2] - The RMB exchange rate is affected by factors such as the strength of the yen and poor US retail data. Seasonal settlement demand before the Spring Festival supports the RMB, but the endogenous appreciation power may decline after the festival. [4] - The stock index is expected to be volatile before the festival due to the approaching holiday and the upcoming release of economic data. It is recommended to reduce positions before the festival. [6] - The bond market is cautious before the festival. The T2606 contract can be moderately long - positioned on dips, and the March contract can be exited on rallies. [8] - The container shipping European line futures show a structural differentiation. The near - month contracts are under pressure, while the far - month peak - season contracts remain relatively resilient. [11] - For new energy products, the downstream inventory - building before the Spring Festival for lithium carbonate is basically completed, and it is recommended to sell volatility. Industrial silicon and polysilicon are under pressure due to high inventory. [13][14] - For non - ferrous metals, copper's volatility is expected to increase after the festival, and it is recommended to buy out - of - the - money call options when the volatility drops to 20%. Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy are expected to be volatile. Zinc, nickel - stainless steel, tin, and lead also have their own market characteristics and corresponding investment suggestions. [17][19][21][22] - For oilseeds and fats, the USDA report has limited adjustments to soybeans. The external soybean market is strong in the short - term, and the domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal have different market trends. The oil market is expected to be volatile before the festival. [25][27] - For energy and oil and gas, fuel oil has weak upward momentum, low - sulfur fuel oil follows the cost and fluctuates at a high level, and asphalt has weak upward momentum and is affected by cost and demand. [29][30][32] - For precious metals, platinum and palladium have a bullish long - term outlook, and it is recommended to buy on dips. Gold and silver are expected to be volatile in the short - term, and it is recommended to buy on dips in the long - term. [36][39] - For chemicals, pulp and offset paper futures are expected to be volatile. LPG is affected by geopolitical factors. PX - PTA is affected by supply and demand and is expected to be volatile. MEG - bottle chips have limited fundamental drivers. Methanol is recommended to be out of the market during the holiday. Plastic PP, pure benzene - styrene, and rubber also have their own market characteristics and investment suggestions. [42][44][46][50][53][55][57][60] - For black commodities, steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to be volatile and weak. Iron ore has weak supply and demand before the festival and is recommended to be observed. Coking coal and coke are recommended to be lightly - positioned during the holiday. Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to be volatile and weak. [73][76][79][81] - For agricultural and soft commodities, the pig price is at the bottom, and the cotton market is affected by the USDA report and is expected to be volatile. The sugar price is affected by the international market and has limited upward space. The egg price is expected to be volatile and weak. The apple price is affected by the end of stocking and has limited downward space. The jujube price is expected to be volatile at a low level. The log price needs to verify the post - holiday demand. [84][86][89][91][98][100][101] Summary by Directory Financial Futures - **Macro**: The RMB exchange rate has risen to 6.90. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The CME plans to launch individual stock futures this summer. The US private - sector employment has increased, and the retail sales in December were flat. The Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. [1] - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB appreciated against the US dollar. Seasonal settlement demand supports the RMB before the festival, but the endogenous appreciation power may decline after the festival. It is recommended that export enterprises lock in forward settlement at around 7.01, and import enterprises adopt a rolling purchase strategy at the 6.91 level. [3][4] - **Stock Index**: The stock index was volatile, and the trading volume shrank before the festival. It is expected to be volatile before the festival, and it is recommended to reduce positions to avoid overseas market risks during the holiday. [5][6] - **Treasury Bond**: The bond market was cautious before the festival. The T2606 contract can be moderately long - positioned on dips, and the March contract can be exited on rallies. [6][8] - **Container Shipping European Line**: The futures price of the container shipping European line declined. The market's confidence in the shipping companies' price increase in March was frustrated. The near - month contracts are under pressure, while the far - month peak - season contracts remain relatively resilient. [8][9][11] Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: The downstream inventory - building before the Spring Festival is basically completed, and the price is stable. The volatility is expected to continue to decline, and it is recommended to sell volatility. [13][14] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon are under pressure due to high inventory. The industry is focused on de - stocking. [14][15] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price's volatility has significantly narrowed. It is expected that the post - festival volatility will be higher than before the festival. It is recommended to buy out - of - the - money call options when the volatility drops to 20%. [17][19] - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The fundamentals of Shanghai aluminum have little change, and it is expected to be volatile. Alumina is expected to be weak in the long - term. Cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up to Shanghai aluminum. [19][20] - **Zinc**: The zinc price is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to conduct a small - scale internal - external reverse hedging when the energy cost is high. [21] - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: The nickel - stainless steel market is volatile and strong. The supply and demand are weak, and the market is affected by the Indonesian policy. [22] - **Tin**: The tin price is expected to be volatile, and it is necessary to pay attention to the US employment and CPI data this week. [23] - **Lead**: The lead price is expected to be weakly volatile. [23][24] Oilseeds and Fats - **Oilseeds**: The USDA report has limited adjustments to soybeans. The external soybean market is strong in the short - term, and the domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal have different market trends. It is recommended to pay attention to reverse hedging opportunities. [25][26] - **Fats**: The external oil market is volatile, and the domestic oil market is expected to be volatile before the festival. It is recommended to wait and see. [27] Energy and Oil and Gas - **Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil price has weak upward momentum. The supply is gradually recovering, and the demand is weak. [29] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil price follows the cost and fluctuates at a high level. The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is stable. [30][31] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price has weak upward momentum. The demand is at a low point before the festival, and the price is expected to follow the cost of crude oil. [32][33] Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The platinum and palladium prices are volatile and weak. The long - term bullish foundation remains, and it is recommended to buy on dips. [35][37] - **Gold and Silver**: The gold and silver prices are expected to be volatile in the short - term, and it is recommended to buy on dips in the long - term. It is recommended to reduce or clear positions during the holiday. [39][40] Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp and offset paper futures are expected to be volatile. The fundamentals are relatively bearish, and it is recommended to conduct range trading. [42][43] - **LPG**: The LPG price is affected by geopolitical factors. The supply is neutral - low, and the demand is at a low level. [44][45] - **PTA - PX**: The PX - PTA market is affected by supply and demand. The PX supply is expected to be tight in the second quarter, and the PTA processing fee is expected to be difficult to maintain at a high level. [46][49] - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The MEG - bottle chips market has limited fundamental drivers. The demand is seasonally weak, and the supply is expected to improve. [50][52] - **Methanol**: The methanol price is affected by geopolitical and non - ferrous metal factors. It is recommended to be out of the market during the holiday. [53][54] - **Plastic PP**: The plastic PP market is expected to be range - bound. The supply and demand are both weak, and it is necessary to pay attention to the post - festival inventory accumulation and marginal device profit. [55][56] - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: The pure benzene - styrene market is expected to be range - bound. The supply of pure benzene is increasing, and the demand is flat. The supply of styrene is increasing, and the demand is decreasing. [57][59] - **Rubber**: The natural rubber is strong, and the synthetic rubber is under pressure. The fundamentals have both support and pressure, and it is recommended to be lightly - positioned before the long holiday. [60][63][65] - **Urea**: The urea price is expected to be short - term adjusted. It is recommended to close long positions and be out of the market during the holiday. [66][67] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The soda ash is expected to be weakly volatile, and the glass is expected to be volatile. The supply of soda ash is high, and the demand for glass is weak. [68][69] - **Propylene**: The propylene price is supported by fundamentals. The supply is increasing, and the demand is decreasing, but the supply - demand gap is still tight. [70][71] Black Commodities - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The rebar and hot - rolled coil prices are expected to be volatile and weak. The supply is relatively strong, and the demand is weak. The price may test the lower limit of the shock range. [73][74][75] - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market has weak supply and demand before the festival. The supply is seasonally decreasing, and the demand is affected by the steel mill's production. It is recommended to observe. [76][78] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke prices are recommended to be lightly - positioned during the holiday. The supply of coking coal is seasonally decreasing, and the demand is gradually recovering. [79][80] - **Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: The ferrosilicon and ferromanganese prices are expected to be volatile and weak. The cost provides support, but the downstream inventory accumulation and high inventory of ferromanganese put pressure on the price. [81][82] Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Pig**: The pig price is at the bottom, and it is recommended to buy on the rebound for the 05 contract. [84][85] - **Cotton**: The USDA report is bearish for cotton. The domestic cotton market is expected to be volatile, and it is necessary to pay attention to the demand for US cotton. [86][88] - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price is weak, and the domestic sugar price has limited upward space. [89][90] - **Egg**: The egg price is expected to be volatile and weak. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak before the festival. [91][92] - **Apple**: The apple price is affected by the end of stocking, and the downward space is limited due to the delivery contradiction. [98][99] - **Jujube**: The jujube price is expected to be volatile at a low level. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak before the festival. [100] - **Log**: The log price needs to verify the post - holiday demand. The import cost has increased, but the liquidity is insufficient. It is recommended to observe. [101][102]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating [1][2][3] Group 2: Report's Core View - Zinc has insufficient upward momentum. The trend strength of zinc is 0, indicating a neutral view [1][3] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Price**: The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract was 24,505 yuan/ton, down 0.24%; the closing price of the LME zinc 3M electronic disk was 3,382 dollars/ton, down 0.03% [1] - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the main Shanghai zinc contract was 42,807 lots, a decrease of 15,547 lots; the trading volume of LME zinc was 7,357 lots, a decrease of 1,925 lots. The open interest of the main Shanghai zinc contract was 78,739 lots, an increase of 1,001 lots; the open interest of LME zinc was 230,682 lots, an increase of 1,328 lots [1] - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Shanghai 0 zinc was -35 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME CASH - 3M premium was -23.73 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.17 dollars/ton [1] - **Inventory**: The Shanghai zinc futures inventory was 34,235 tons, an increase of 2,971 tons; the LME zinc inventory was 106,750 tons, a decrease of 175 tons [1] - **Other Products**: The price of 1.0mm hot - dipped galvanized coil was 4,033 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Shanghai Zamak - 5 zinc alloy was 25,710 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton [1] 2. News - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and carry out regular treasury bond trading operations to support the real economy and the financial market [2] - Ray Dalio warns that the US is on the verge of order collapse and civil war, and gold should account for 5% - 15% of the investment portfolio as a safe - haven asset [2] 3. Trend Strength - The trend strength of zinc is 0, with a neutral view on the zinc market [3]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has indicated that the effects of moderately loose monetary policy are gradually becoming evident, supporting the achievement of key economic and social development goals for the year 2025 [1][2]. Monetary Policy and Economic Support - The report highlights that the cumulative effects of previous policies will continue to manifest, with ongoing implementation of moderately loose monetary policy and collaboration between monetary and fiscal policies expected to enhance financial support for the real economy [1][2]. - As of the end of last year, various types of loans, including technology loans (up 11.5%), green loans (up 20.2%), and loans for the digital economy (up 14.1%), have consistently outpaced overall loan growth [2]. Direct Financing and Market Development - Direct financing is accelerating and diversifying, with significant increases in government bond financing, corporate bond financing, and domestic equity financing for non-financial enterprises in 2025 [2]. - The introduction of the "Technology Board" in the bond market has led to the issuance of over 1.5 trillion yuan in technology innovation bonds, contributing to a new ecosystem for capital market investment [2]. Price Trends and Economic Structure - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for 2025 is expected to remain stable compared to the previous year, with core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 0.7% [3]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has shown a decreasing trend, with the year-on-year decline narrowing from 3.6% in June to 1.9% in December [3]. Fiscal and Monetary Policy Coordination - The State Council has emphasized the need for stronger coordination between fiscal and monetary policies to enhance policy effectiveness and support domestic demand growth [5][6]. - The collaboration includes creating a conducive monetary environment for government bond issuance and combining central bank re-lending tools with fiscal subsidy policies to optimize economic structure [6]. Asset Allocation and Liquidity - Recent trends indicate a shift in asset allocation among residents and enterprises, with a notable increase in total assets under management reaching 120 trillion yuan, up 13.1% year-on-year [7]. - The overall liquidity can be better assessed by combining bank deposits with wealth management products, indicating a stable growth trend in total liquidity despite structural changes in deposits [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, carry out regular treasury bond trading operations, and pay attention to changes in long - term yields. The adjustment of residents' asset allocation will eventually flow back to the banking system, and there will be no significant change in the liquidity situation [6]. - For naphtha, the near - end Asian naphtha premium has been rising. Supply - side issues are mainly due to reduced East - West arbitrage logistics and seasonal maintenance in the Middle East. Demand - side factors are the strong demand from the profit - driven Asian refineries and reforming units. Although the tight supply situation may ease, the supply - demand inflection point is difficult to see in the short term [7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Pre - market Focus - **Monetary Policy**: The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, carry out regular treasury bond trading operations, and pay attention to long - term yield changes. The adjustment of residents' asset allocation will eventually return to the banking system, and there will be no significant change in the liquidity situation [6]. - **Naphtha**: The near - end Asian naphtha premium has been rising. The main reasons for the supply - side are reduced East - West arbitrage logistics and seasonal maintenance in the Middle East. The demand - side is driven by the profit - driven Asian refineries and reforming units. The tight supply situation may ease, but the supply - demand inflection point is difficult to see in the short term [7][8]. 3.2 Commodity Market Analysis 3.2.1 Precious Metals - **Gold**: It is expected to oscillate and rebound. The prices of domestic and international gold showed an upward trend on the previous trading day, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts decreased [11][14]. - **Silver**: It is expected to decline from a high level. The prices of domestic and international silver increased significantly on the previous trading day, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts decreased [11][14]. 3.2.2 Base Metals - **Copper**: Inventory increase restricts price increases. The prices of domestic and international copper decreased on the previous trading day, and the inventory increased. The market is affected by factors such as weak US retail sales and corporate production adjustments [11][19]. - **Zinc**: The upward momentum is insufficient. The prices of domestic and international zinc decreased slightly on the previous trading day, and the inventory increased [11][22]. - **Lead**: The increase in domestic inventory puts pressure on prices. The prices of domestic and international lead increased slightly on the previous trading day, and the domestic inventory increased [11][25]. - **Tin**: It is in an oscillatory adjustment. The price of domestic tin increased on the previous trading day, while the price of international tin decreased. The inventory increased slightly [11][28]. - **Aluminum**: It is in an interval oscillation. The prices of domestic and international aluminum decreased slightly on the previous trading day, and the inventory situation varied [11][31]. - **Alumina**: It decreased slightly. The price of domestic alumina decreased on the previous trading day, and the trading volume and positions of relevant contracts decreased [11][31]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum. The price of cast aluminum alloy decreased on the previous trading day, and the trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed [11][31]. - **Platinum**: It continues to oscillate and consolidate. The prices of domestic and international platinum decreased on the previous trading day, and the trading volume and positions of relevant contracts decreased [11][35]. - **Palladium**: It oscillates in a narrow range. The prices of domestic and international palladium decreased on the previous trading day, and the trading volume and positions of relevant contracts decreased [11][35]. - **Nickel**: The news from Indonesia has caused disturbances, and the departure of pre - holiday funds limits its elasticity. The price of nickel decreased on the previous trading day, and the trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed [11][39]. - **Stainless Steel**: There are frequent maintenance and production cuts in February, and the cost support center moves up. The price of stainless steel increased slightly on the previous trading day, and the trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed [11][39]. 3.2.3 Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The downstream replenishment is temporarily over, and the pre - holiday market volatility decreases. The price of carbonate lithium increased slightly on the previous trading day, and the trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed [11][47]. - **Industrial Silicon**: A small amount of upstream production has resumed, and the market sentiment suppresses the price. The price of industrial silicon decreased on the previous trading day, and the trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed [11][52]. - **Polysilicon**: It is in a spot vacuum period, and attention should be paid to post - holiday transactions. The price of polysilicon decreased on the previous trading day, and the trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed [11][52]. - **Iron Ore**: It oscillates in an interval. The price of iron ore remained unchanged on the previous trading day, and the trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed [11][55]. - **Rebar**: It oscillates in a wide range. The price of rebar decreased on the previous trading day, and the trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed [11][58]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: It oscillates in a wide range. The price of hot - rolled coil decreased on the previous trading day, and the trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed [11][58]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: It oscillates in a wide range due to sector sentiment resonance. The price of silicon ferrosilicon decreased on the previous trading day, and the trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed [11][62]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The post - holiday shipment of South African manganese ore may be tightened, and it oscillates in a wide range. The price of manganese silicon increased slightly on the previous trading day, and the trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed [11][62]. - **Coke**: Long - position holders take profits, and it oscillates weakly. The price of coke decreased on the previous trading day, and the trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed [11][66]. - **Coking Coal**: Long - position holders take profits, and it oscillates weakly. The price of coking coal decreased on the previous trading day, and the trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed [11][66]. - **Log**: It oscillates in an interval. The price of log decreased slightly on the previous trading day, and the trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed [11][71]. - **Para - xylene**: It is in a unilateral oscillatory market, and the monthly spread is weak. The price of para - xylene increased slightly on the previous trading day, and the trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed [11][76]. - **PTA**: It is in an interval oscillatory market. The price of PTA increased on the previous trading day, and the trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed [11][76]. - **MEG**: It is for interval operation. The price of MEG decreased slightly on the previous trading day, and the trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed [11][76]. - **Rubber**: It oscillates strongly. The price of rubber increased on the previous trading day, and the trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed [11][87]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It oscillates. The price of synthetic rubber increased slightly on the previous trading day, and the trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed [11][90]. - **LLDPE**: Spot transactions are stagnant, and funds avoid risks with an oscillatory market. The price of LLDPE increased on the previous trading day, and the trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed [11][93]. - **PP**: The C3 raw material performs strongly, and the valuation repair is limited. The price of PP increased on the previous trading day, and the trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed [11][96]. - **Caustic Soda**: The cost increases, and the valuation is repaired. The price of caustic soda increased on the previous trading day, and the trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed [11][99]. - **Pulp**: It oscillates. The price of pulp increased slightly on the previous trading day, and the trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed [11][104]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The price of glass decreased slightly on the previous trading day, and the trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed [11][112]. - **Methanol**: It oscillates. The price of methanol increased slightly on the previous trading day, and the trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed [11][115]. - **Urea**: It oscillates with support. The price of urea decreased slightly on the previous trading day, and the trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed [11][120]. - **Styrene**: It oscillates at a high level. The price of styrene changed on the previous trading day, and the trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed [11][124]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change. The price of soda ash decreased on the previous trading day, and the trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed [11][126]. - **LPG**: Geopolitical disturbances still exist, and the fundamental driving force is downward. The price of LPG increased on the previous trading day, and the trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed [11][130]. - **Propylene**: The spot price is stable, and the basis converges. The price of propylene increased on the previous trading day, and the trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed [11][131]. - **PVC**: It oscillates weakly. The price of PVC decreased on the previous trading day, and the trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed [11][139]. - **Fuel Oil**: It oscillates in a narrow range, and short - term fluctuations decrease. The price of fuel oil increased on the previous trading day, and the trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed [11][142]. - **Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: It strengthened in the night session, and the spot price spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in the external market is still at a low level. The price of low - sulfur fuel oil increased on the previous trading day, and the trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed [11][142]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: It oscillates. The price of the container shipping index decreased on the previous trading day, and the trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed [11][144]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products - **Short - fiber**: It is in a short - term oscillatory market. The price of short - fiber increased on the previous trading day, and the trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed [11][155]. - **Bottle Chip**: It is in a short - term oscillatory market. The price of bottle chip increased on the previous trading day, and the trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed [11][155]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is in a pre - holiday wait - and - see state. The price of offset printing paper remained unchanged on the previous trading day, and the trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed [11][158]. - **Pure Benzene**: It oscillates strongly. The price of pure benzene increased on the previous trading day, and the trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed [11][162]. - **Palm Oil**: The fundamental driving force is limited, and it oscillates and adjusts. The price of palm oil decreased on the previous trading day, and the trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed [11][167]. - **Soybean Oil**: The report lacks highlights, and it oscillates in an interval. The price of soybean oil decreased slightly on the previous trading day, and the trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed [11][167]. - **Soybean Meal**: The overnight US soybeans closed higher, and Dalian soybean meal may follow and rebound and oscillate. The price of soybean meal changed on the previous trading day, and the trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed [11][173]. - **Soybean**: The spot price is stable, and the market oscillates. The price of soybean increased on the previous trading day, and the trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed [11][173]. - **Corn**: It oscillates strongly. The price of corn increased on the previous trading day, and the trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed [11][176]. - **Sugar**: Attention should be paid to low - basis opportunities. The price of sugar increased on the previous trading day, and the trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed [11][180]. - **Cotton**: It is expected to maintain an oscillatory trend before the holiday. The price of cotton increased on the previous trading day, and the trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed [11][185]. - **Egg**: It oscillates and adjusts. The price of egg changed on the previous trading day, and the trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed [11][191]. - **Live Pig**: The peak - season stocking is over, and the market price is at a premium to the small - standard warehouse receipts. The price of live pig changed on the previous trading day, and the trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed [11][194]. - **Peanut**: It oscillates. The price of peanut changed on the previous trading day, and the trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed [11][199].