Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00%, marking the second consecutive rate cut, aligning with market expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to reduce the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points due to a moderate expansion in economic activity and rising inflation [2]. - The decision reflects a balance of risks, with increased downward risks to employment noted in recent months [2]. Group 2: Voting Members - The members supporting the monetary policy action include Jerome H. Powell, John C. Williams, and several others, while Stephen I. Miran and Jeffrey R. Schmid opposed the decision [3]. Group 3: Asset Purchase Program - The FOMC announced the end of its balance sheet reduction program effective December 1, with current monthly reductions of $50 billion in U.S. Treasuries and $35 billion in mortgage-backed securities [1][2]. - After this date, the principal repayments from mortgage-backed securities will be reinvested into short-term U.S. Treasuries [1].

Core Points - The Bank of Canada has lowered the benchmark overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, marking the lowest level since July 2022 [1] - The central bank has significantly downgraded its growth forecasts, citing long-term impacts from U.S. tariffs that have structurally damaged the Canadian economy [4] - The central bank's decision comes as the Canadian government prepares to unveil a budget focused on infrastructure and major projects to support growth [4] Economic Outlook - The Bank of Canada expects the economy to be in a state of excess supply for the foreseeable future, with growth forecasts for the second half of 2025 reduced to 0.75% [5] - Compared to January predictions, the central bank has lowered its growth expectations for 2025 from 1.8% to 1.2% and for 2026 from 1.8% to 1.1% [5] - The central bank acknowledges that the impact of tariffs has raised business costs and increased uncertainty, leading to continued weakness in business investment and consumer growth [5][6] Monetary Policy - The current overnight rate of 2.25% is at the lower end of the central bank's assessed neutral rate range, indicating a balance that neither stimulates nor suppresses the economy [6] - The central bank is cautious about further stimulus to avoid reigniting inflation amid global price and supply chain disruptions [5][6] - There is a possibility of further rate cuts, but the timing may be delayed until early 2026, depending on economic conditions and fiscal policies [6]

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates at least by December, but inflation risks remain significant [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - Aureus Asset Management highlights ongoing high prices despite tariff negotiations, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The company is shifting focus towards fixed income investments, noting that their volatility can actually reduce risk, contrasting with the traditional approach of solely investing in equities [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Canada has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, signaling that the current rate cut cycle is nearing its end unless there are severe economic impacts from trade conflicts with the U.S. [1][2] Group 1: Economic Forecasts and Impacts - The Bank of Canada has downgraded its economic growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 1.2% and 1.1% respectively, down from previous estimates of 1.8% for both years, due to the impact of U.S. tariffs [4] - The Canadian economy contracted by 1.6% in the second quarter, with concerns that the third quarter may also struggle to recover, projecting a 0.5% annualized growth for Q3 and 1% for Q4 [4] - The central bank noted that the economy is undergoing a difficult transition, with structural damage from trade conflicts reducing supply capacity and increasing costs, limiting the effectiveness of monetary policy [4][6] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Reactions - The Bank of Canada indicated that the current policy rate is approximately suitable for keeping inflation near 2% while aiding the economy during this structural adjustment period [5] - Following the announcement of the rate cut and the hint at the end of the easing cycle, the Canadian dollar strengthened, reaching its highest level since October 1, and government bond yields rose across the board [8] - Market expectations for further rate cuts in December decreased from over 30% to about 20% after the announcement [8] Group 3: Future Considerations and Uncertainties - The Bank of Canada acknowledged significant uncertainties in its economic forecasts and is prepared to respond if the outlook changes [7] - The upcoming federal budget, expected to focus on infrastructure and major projects to stimulate growth, may present upward risks despite the downward pressures from trade conflicts [10]

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes high-quality development without setting explicit economic growth targets, focusing instead on enhancing domestic consumption and ensuring sustainable fiscal and monetary policies [3][5][6]. Fiscal Policy - The "15th Five-Year Plan" suggests a shift towards a more sustainable fiscal policy, emphasizing the importance of active fiscal measures while ensuring fiscal sustainability [5][6]. - In the first three quarters of this year, China's general public budget revenue was 163.876 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, while expenditure was 208.064 billion yuan, up 3.1% [5]. - The plan indicates a need for fiscal policy to support economic stability and new growth drivers, while managing debt effectively [6][7]. Monetary Policy - The plan prioritizes the improvement of the central banking system and the establishment of a comprehensive macro-prudential management framework [7][8]. - There is a focus on enhancing the transmission mechanism of monetary policy to better serve the real economy, with expectations of maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy [9][10]. - The central bank is expected to continue reforms to improve the efficiency of monetary policy transmission, addressing challenges in interest rate adjustments [9][10]. Consumer Spending - The plan highlights the importance of increasing the resident consumption rate, aiming to boost consumer spending through policy coordination and income enhancement [11][12]. - In the first three quarters, final consumption expenditure contributed 53.5% to economic growth, an increase of 9 percentage points compared to the previous year [12]. - Recent policies, such as the implementation of personal consumption loan interest subsidies, aim to lower borrowing costs and stimulate consumer demand [13][12]. Policy Implementation - The plan calls for the removal of unreasonable restrictions on consumption and the establishment of supportive measures for new consumption patterns [13][12]. - It emphasizes the need for precise policy delivery to enhance consumer confidence and reduce living burdens, thereby unlocking suppressed consumption potential [13][12].

【导读】加拿大央行降息25个基点至2.25%，符合市场预期 大家好！一起来关注海外央行降息动态。 10月29日晚间，加拿大央行（BoC）宣布，将政策利率下调25个基点至2.25%。 今年1月份，加拿大央行首次发布经济预测：预计第三季度GDP环比增长0.5%，第四季度增长1%；将2025年GDP增速下调至1.2%，预计2026年GDP增长 1%；下调2025年CPI增速预期至2%，预计2026年和2027年CPI增长2.1%。 与此同时，加拿大央行将今明两年的经济增速预期从1.8%分别下调至1.2%和1.1%，理由是美国贸易政策影响。加拿大央行预估2025年通胀为2%，2026年 约为2.1%。由于美国贸易政策持续不可预测，可能的结果范围仍然比平时更宽。 加拿大央行下一次宣布隔夜利率目标的预定日期是2025年12月10日，下一份货币政策报告（MPR）将于2026年1月28日发布。 消息公布后，美元兑加元短线走低。 加拿大央行表示，此次降息基于经济疲软态势，同时预期通胀将维持在2%目标附近。 加拿大劳动力市场持续疲软，经济过剩产能预计将逐步消化。核心通胀指标顽固维持在3%左右，但更广泛的指标显示潜在通胀约为2.5 ...

The increasingly fraught relationship between President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is back in focus as the Federal Open Market Committee is set to announce its next move on interest rates on Wednesday. At stake is the direction of U.S. monetary policy and Trump’s renewed pressure on the central bank to deliver rate cuts he says are needed to keep the economy growing.Powell, however, has slowly moved on those calls, maintaining a cautious, data-dependent approach to managing infl ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The People's Bank of China will resume open - market treasury bond trading operations. The operation is positioned as a base money injection channel and a liquidity management tool, which can create a suitable liquidity environment when combined with other tools [2]. - In the short term, the central bank's treasury bond trading is expected to bring pulse - like opportunities to the bond market, with a more direct positive impact on the short - end. In the long term, the impact is neutral, and interest - rate bonds in the fourth quarter remain weak assets [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Process of the Central Bank's Open - Market Treasury Bond Trading Operations since 2024 - After the Central Financial Work Conference in October 2023, the central bank's open - market treasury bond trading came into the market's view. In June 2024, Governor Pan Gongsheng said that the central bank was studying with the Ministry of Finance to gradually increase treasury bond trading in open - market operations. In August 2024, the central bank officially carried out open - market treasury bond trading, buying short - term treasury bonds and selling long - term ones, with a net purchase of 100 billion yuan in bond face value that month. From September to December 2024, the net purchase of bond face value was 200 billion yuan, 200 billion yuan, 200 billion yuan, and 300 billion yuan respectively. In January 2025, the operation was suspended due to bond market supply - demand imbalance and accumulated market risks, and will now be resumed [2]. 2. Functions of MLF and Repurchase in Base Money Injection in 2025 - The net purchase of treasury bonds from August to December 2024 totaled 1 trillion yuan, which matured in 2025. The "claims on the central government" in the central bank's assets decreased from 2.9 trillion yuan at the end of 2024 to 2.2 trillion yuan at the end of September 2025, equivalent to withdrawing 700 billion yuan of base money. In 2025, the central bank mainly relied on MLF and repurchase to inject base money, with a net injection of about 3 trillion yuan, increasing the "claims on other depository corporations" from 15.6 trillion yuan at the end of 2024 to 19.5 trillion yuan at the end of September 2025, and its proportion in total assets rising from 35.5% to 41.4%. The net injection scale of MLF and repurchase has been more significant since the second half of the year, consistent with the trend of capital prices [2]. 3. Five Functions of the Central Bank's Open - Market Treasury Bond Trading Operations - Enrich the monetary policy toolbox: Open - market treasury bond trading is a normal monetary policy tool, used flexibly without specific triggering conditions, and does not conflict with MLF and repurchase operations [2]. - Enhance the financial functions of treasury bonds: Treasury bonds should not only serve fiscal financing but also act as monetary policy tools, asset pricing benchmarks, high - quality collateral, and asset allocation tools [3]. - Play the pricing benchmark role of the treasury bond yield curve: Open - market treasury bond trading is two - way, which can regulate the yield curve of treasury bonds and the entire bond market, a function not available in reserve requirement ratio cuts, MLF, and repurchase [4]. - Promote the coordination between monetary policy and fiscal policy: In September 2025, the joint working group of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank discussed issues such as coordination and the central bank's treasury bond trading, and a good cooperation mechanism may have been formed [4]. - Benefit the reform and development of the bond market and improve the market - making and pricing capabilities of financial institutions: Open - market treasury bond trading requires a certain scale and depth of the bond market, and the central bank's trading increases market trading volume and activity. It also helps primary dealers adjust their treasury bond inventories and improve overall market - making and pricing capabilities [4]. 4. Impact on the Bond Market - Short - term: The trading term and scale of the central bank's treasury bond trading are not clear. It is expected to mainly buy short - term treasury bonds, with a scale not exceeding that in 2024, bringing pulse - like opportunities to the bond market, and having a more direct positive impact on the short - end. Long - term bonds will still be affected by factors such as Sino - US relations and the performance of the equity market [5]. - Long - term: The impact of the central bank's treasury bond trading is mainly neutral. Against the background of low coupon rates and low capital gains, interest - rate bonds in the fourth quarter remain weak assets [5].

Core Viewpoint - The selection of the next Federal Reserve Chair is highly anticipated, especially given President Trump's ongoing pressure on the Fed and his attempts to place loyalists within the institution, which raises concerns about the Fed's policy independence [1][2]. Candidate Summary - The shortlist for the next Federal Reserve Chair includes current Fed governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, former Fed governor Kevin Warsh, White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, and Rick Rieder, Chief Investment Officer of Fixed Income at BlackRock [1]. - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin plans to submit a candidate list to President Trump after the Thanksgiving holiday, with Trump expected to make a decision by the end of the year [1]. Market Concerns - Trump's continuous criticism of Powell and the Fed's monetary policy is perceived as undermining the Fed's independence, with concerns that his appointed candidate may lack independence [2]. - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming October monetary policy meeting, influenced by the potential new chair's stance on monetary policy [2]. Analysis of Candidates - According to CITIC Securities, the main competition for the Fed Chair position is between Waller and Hassett, with market sentiment favoring Waller due to concerns over Hassett's loyalty to Trump [3]. - The market is wary of Hassett's potential appointment due to previous resistance faced by Trump's nominee Stephen Moore, suggesting that Waller may ultimately be the favored candidate [3]. - If Waller is appointed, it could lead to a reversal in market expectations regarding the Fed's independence, positively impacting overall dollar assets and negatively affecting gold prices [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Commodity Market Outlook**: The overall commodity market shows a complex situation with different trends for each product. Some are affected by supply - demand dynamics, while others are influenced by geopolitical events, policy changes, and market sentiment. For example, oil prices are short - term volatile but suppressed by supply - demand fundamentals, and precious metals are waiting for the Fed's interest - rate decision [1][4]. - **Impact of Key Events**: Events such as the US government shutdown, potential sanctions on Russian oil companies, and the Fed's interest - rate decisions have significant impacts on the financial and commodity markets. These events create uncertainties and drive market sentiment [1][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity **Energy** - **Crude Oil**: As of the week ending October 24, 2025, US commercial crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories all decreased significantly. The API data led to a short - term jump in oil prices. However, supply - demand factors still suppress oil prices. The market is currently weighing the impact of US sanctions on Russian oil companies and OPEC+'s potential production increase plan. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **PTA**: Polyester inventory is relatively low, providing support from the demand side. However, new production facilities are being tested, leading to a strong expectation of weakening supply - demand balance. With the overnight decline in crude oil prices, the cost - side support has weakened. The PTA market is expected to decline slightly in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [5]. **Precious Metals** - **Gold**: The US government remains in a shutdown state, and the Fed is about to hold an interest - rate meeting. Precious metals are oscillating while waiting for the meeting's outcome. Although the risk - aversion sentiment has cooled down, the buying power for gold remains strong. Gold is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium term, and a cautious approach is recommended. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US dollar index on gold [1]. - **Silver**: The market has basically priced in another interest - rate cut by the Fed. Silver is expected to be bullish in the long term, with short - term oscillations and limited downside. Opportunities for long positions should be monitored [4]. **Agricultural Products** - **Palm Oil**: The GAPKI reported that Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased slightly in August. However, multiple mining associations are requesting the Indonesian government to cancel the B50 plan, raising concerns about future demand. The expected increase in supply is putting pressure on palm oil prices, which are expected to be weak in the short term [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The supply of rapeseed meal is rigidly short, and coastal oil mills have low inventories, reducing the risk of price decline. As the import cost of soybean meal rises due to the rebound in international soybean prices, the price spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to widen. Rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Attention should be paid to China - Canada trade policies [4]. - **Pork**: On October 28, the national pork price rose significantly. With the improvement in consumption due to cooling weather, the reduction in end - of - month slaughter pressure, and the entry of second - round fattening, there is short - term positive support. The pork futures price has bottomed out and rebounded, but the upward momentum is limited. Farmers should hedge according to their slaughter schedules [3]. **Industrial Metals** - **Iron Ore**: From October 20 to 26, the global iron ore shipment volume increased. The supply of iron ore is expected to increase, while terminal demand remains weak, and port inventories continue to accumulate. However, positive factors such as China - US talks and the Fed's potential interest - rate cut have boosted market sentiment. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate within a range, and interval trading is recommended for the Iron Ore 2601 contract [6]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to continue to increase in October, potentially reaching a new high. However, the demand in the new energy vehicle and energy storage markets is strong, leading to a significant inventory reduction. The market shows a pattern of supply - demand balance with a trend of de - stocking [8]. - **Rebar**: On October 28, domestic steel prices rose slightly. Positive news such as environmental protection restrictions in Hebei has boosted market confidence, and the tight supply of coking coal and the second - round price increase of coke have provided cost support. However, as the traditional peak season approaches its end, steel demand is difficult to increase, and the future increase in raw material prices is uncertain. Steel prices are expected to oscillate strongly, but the upside may be limited [9]. **Others** - **Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds**: The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, which will support the treasury bond futures market. Open - market operations of treasury bonds will affect prices from the supply - demand perspective, and are likely to be a positive factor for the bond market. Considering factors such as liquidity, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and open - market operations, the bond market is expected to oscillate slightly upward in the medium term [5][6]. - **Natural Rubber**: China's natural rubber inventory has been continuously decreasing, and warehouse receipts have been declining. The reduction in macro - level pressure is driving the market upward. A bullish approach is recommended for natural rubber at low prices [7].