Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index showed stability, closing up 0.40%, supported by sectors like banking and electricity [1] - The US and UK reached a trade agreement, reducing tariffs on UK car imports from 25% to a maximum of 10%, with a cap of 100,000 cars per year [1] - The agreement requires the UK to purchase an additional $5 billion in US agricultural products and a $10 billion Boeing procurement deal [1] US-China Trade Negotiations - Substantial trade negotiations between the US and China are set to take place, with expectations of a significant reduction in tariffs from 145% to 50% [2] - The negotiations are seen as exploratory, aimed at understanding each side's demands and limits [2] Economic Data - China's April exports in USD rose by 8.1% year-on-year, while imports fell by 0.2%, resulting in a trade surplus of $96.18 billion [4] - The data indicates a strong performance in trade despite the ongoing tariff conflicts, with April's figures being the second highest for the month historically [4] Sector Focus - The Chinese government is intensifying efforts to combat the smuggling of strategic minerals, which is crucial for national security and economic stability [7] - The crackdown on smuggling is expected to tighten supply and support prices, potentially enhancing company performance in the sector [7] Company Highlights - China Resources Beverage reported a revenue of 13.521 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.661 billion yuan for 2024, marking a 24.7% increase [9] - The company plans to distribute a total dividend of 0.483 yuan per share, reflecting a payout ratio of 70.8% [9] - The beverage segment is experiencing significant growth, with a 30.8% increase in revenue, contributing to 10.3% of total revenue [10] - The company is increasing its self-production capacity, aiming for over 60% by 2025, which will reduce reliance on outsourcing and lower manufacturing costs [10]

Market Overview - US stock index futures showed mixed results with Dow futures down 0.03%, S&P 500 futures up 0.08%, and Nasdaq futures up 0.11% [1] - European indices also experienced gains, with Germany's DAX up 0.48%, UK's FTSE 100 up 0.36%, France's CAC 40 up 0.59%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.33% [2] - WTI crude oil rose by 1.87% to $61.03 per barrel, while Brent crude oil increased by 1.67% to $63.89 per barrel [2] Trade Relations and Tariffs - President Trump suggested that an 80% tariff on China seems reasonable ahead of upcoming trade negotiations, urging China to open its market further [3] - Reports indicate that the US is considering reducing tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to between 50% and 54%, potentially effective next week [4] - The US and UK have reached a new trade agreement, partially lifting certain tariffs, but many details remain to be finalized [5] Economic Indicators - ING predicts that the Federal Reserve's cautious stance may last until September, with a potential rate cut of 50 basis points due to declining consumer and business confidence [4] - A stock market indicator has entered a historically poor return phase for the S&P 500, with previous occurrences leading to an average decline of 5.6% over the following 12 months [6][7] Company Performance - TSMC reported a 48% increase in April revenue, driven by a rush to procure chips before new tariffs take effect, with monthly sales reaching approximately $11.6 billion [8] - Lyft's Q1 revenue grew by 14% to $1.45 billion, with a net profit of $2.6 million, attributed to an increase in active users [9] - Coinbase's Q1 revenue rose by 24% to $2 billion, but net profit plummeted by 94% to $66 million due to market price adjustments of crypto assets [10] - Pinterest's Q1 revenue increased by 16% to $855 million, with Q2 guidance exceeding expectations, highlighting the role of AI in enhancing user experience [11] - Affirm reported a turnaround in Q3 with a net profit of $2.8 million and revenue of $783 million, reflecting strong consumer demand for installment payment services [11] Industry Developments - Nvidia plans to launch a downgraded version of its H20 AI chip for the Chinese market in response to US export restrictions [12] - IAG is reportedly set to place an order for approximately 30 Boeing 787 Dreamliner aircraft, marking a significant win for Boeing following the new US-UK trade agreement [12]

以下文章来源于金十财经 ，作者金十小金 金十财经 . 每日8点，为您呈上金融投资行业的国际动态、财经数据和市场观察。 特朗普8日在白宫宣布，美国与英国达成一项新的贸易协议，部分撤回特定领域的关税，进一 步扩大双方产品的市场准入。 根据白宫发布的文件， 每年从英国出口到美国的前10万辆汽车将按照10%的额外关税税率征 税，超过部分则按25%的额外关税税率征税。 英国将削减或者取消非关税壁垒，对美国牛 肉、乙醇、谷物等产品及一些工业产品扩大市场准入。 英国政府当天在官网发表声明说， 英国出口至美国的钢铝产品的关税将被取消。 英国进口到 美国的汽车关税将由现在的27.5%下调至10%。此外，在一定配额内，英国的农产品出口美 国也将实行零关税。英国将把自美国进口的乙醇的关税降至零。 来源 | 金十财经 在特朗普宣布与英国达成贸易协议后，人们预期贸易紧张局势将得到缓解，这推动了比特币自今 年2月以来首次突破10万美元关口，周五凌晨一度涨超7%，向上触及104000美元/枚；以太坊日 内暴涨逾20%，突破2180美元/枚。 美元涨势扩大，削弱了因担心全球贸易战而产生的避险需求，黄金因此下滑。 现货黄金 隔夜 一度跌破33 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is reportedly considering significant tariff reductions on China to ease ongoing trade tensions and alleviate global economic pressures [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Reductions - The initial goal set by the Trump administration is to reduce tariffs on China to below 60% [1]. - Current tariffs on China are as high as 145%, and any reduction would still leave the overall tariff rate significantly above historical levels [3][5]. - If tariffs are reduced, it is anticipated that the U.S. average tariff rate could decrease by over 20 percentage points to around 23% [5]. Group 2: Rare Earth Elements - A key demand from the U.S. is for China to lift restrictions on rare earth exports, particularly those used in manufacturing magnets [1]. - China currently produces about 90% of the world's rare earth elements, which are critical for various industries including defense and electric vehicles [1]. Group 3: Trade Negotiations - The upcoming U.S.-China talks are expected to focus on mutual concerns rather than immediately resolving the extensive trade issues [2]. - Analysts suggest that the negotiations may be exploratory, with both sides having significant grievances [5]. - Progress on the fentanyl issue has also been noted, with potential separate discussions planned to address the export of precursor chemicals from China [1].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the impact of tariffs on the Chinese economy, particularly in the context of U.S.-China trade relations and the anticipated economic growth in 2025 [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Impact of Tariffs on Growth**: The second quarter growth in China may slow down by over 1 percentage point due to tariffs, with a projected GDP growth rate of below 4.5% for Q2, down from 5.4% in Q1 [1][18]. 2. **Stimulus Measures**: Beijing is expected to implement cautious and uneven stimulus policies, focusing on emerging industries and urban renewal investments, while gradually shifting towards consumer spending in the medium term [1][12]. 3. **Tariff Levels**: Current tariffs between the U.S. and China are deemed unsustainable, with effective U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods at 45% (up from 11% before 2025) [3][4]. 4. **Potential for Tariff Reduction**: There is a possibility of gradual tariff reductions as negotiations between the U.S. and China progress, which could alleviate some economic pressures [2][3]. 5. **GDP Forecast Adjustments**: If tariffs remain at current levels, the GDP growth forecast for 2025 may be adjusted downwards by 0.5 percentage points, with significant impacts on exports [4][11]. 6. **Investment Focus**: The Chinese government is likely to maintain a focus on investment-driven growth, despite calls for a shift towards consumption, due to perceived uncertainties regarding the multiplier effects of consumption policies [12][14]. 7. **Economic Stimulus Plans**: A total of 2 trillion RMB in central bank-approved stimulus measures is anticipated, although the implementation remains passive and reactive to external shocks [11][19]. 8. **Long-term Economic Strategy**: The government aims to achieve high-quality growth through regulated local government investments and infrastructure upgrades, despite a decline in overall investment returns [15][16]. Other Important Content - **Employment and Domestic Spending**: The high tariffs are expected to have secondary effects on domestic employment and consumer spending, contributing to ongoing deflationary pressures [11][19]. - **Market Sentiment**: Investor sentiment remains cautious due to the uncertainty surrounding tariff levels and the effectiveness of stimulus measures [11][12]. - **Sector-Specific Impacts**: Certain sectors, particularly those reliant on exports to the U.S., may face significant challenges due to the high tariffs and potential for further trade disruptions [4][19]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the interplay between tariffs, economic growth, and government policy in China.

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The DCE soybean meal and DCE live hog futures prices showed a mixed trend, with some contracts rising and some remaining stable. The CBOT soybean futures price declined. The domestic soybean meal spot price is expected to slow down its downward adjustment in the short - term and resume its decline in late May. The live hog market is currently in a state of short - term supply - demand increase, and a significant drop in hog prices may occur after the concentrated supply [1][2][16][17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Overview - The DCE soybean meal main 2509 contract closed at 2920 yuan/ton, up 0.17% from the previous trading day, with coastal mainstream oil mills' quotes showing mixed trends. The DCE live hog main 2509 contract closed at 13985 yuan/ton, up 0.18% from the previous trading day. The national average ex - factory price of ternary live hogs was 14.76 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The CBOT soybean main contract fell 0.53% to 1041 cents/bushel [2]. 3.2 Main Producing Area Weather - In the US Midwest agricultural main producing areas, there will be local to scattered showers in the western and eastern regions from Wednesday to Friday, and mainly dry weather on Saturday. Temperatures will be close to or higher than normal from Wednesday to Thursday, and close to or lower than normal from Friday to Saturday. More precipitation may occur next week, and the western region may be wetter than the eastern region [4]. 3.3 Macro and Industry News - On May 2, the inventory of imported soybeans in major domestic oil mills was 523 million tons, up 18 million tons week - on - week. The inventory of soybean meal was 8 million tons, up 1 million tons week - on - week. On May 6, the soybean meal transaction volume of major oil mills was 10.21 million tons, an increase of 7.34 million tons from the previous day. The开机 rate of oil mills was 47.95%, an increase of 3.25% from the previous day. The import cost of US, Brazilian, and Argentine soybeans decreased on May 7. The daily slaughter volume of key slaughtering enterprises on May 6 was 124,720 heads, up 0.75% from the previous day. Analysts' average forecasts for the 2024/25 soybean production in Brazil and Argentina and the global and US soybean ending stocks in relevant periods are provided, with slight differences from the USDA's April estimates [5][6]. 3.4 Analysis and Strategy - **Soybean Meal**: US soybean futures declined due to concerns about international trade tensions and the drop in soybean oil futures. The Brazilian soybean harvest is over, and its production in the 2024/25 season reached a record high. The domestic DCE soybean meal main M09 contract stopped falling and stabilized. The soybean meal spot price continued to decline, but the decline may slow down in the short - term and resume in late May [16]. - **Live Hogs**: The supply side shows a significant decline in the average slaughter weight in the northern region, and the overall concentrated supply node of the breeding end is approaching. The demand side has poor terminal sales. The live hog market is in a short - term state of supply - demand increase, and a significant drop in hog prices may occur after the concentrated supply [17].

Core Viewpoint - Ford has increased the prices of three models produced in Mexico due to tariffs announced by the Trump administration, marking it as one of the first major automakers to adjust pricing in response to these tariffs [1] Price Adjustments - The price increase applies to the Mustang Mach-E electric SUV, Maverick pickup, and certain models of the Bronco Sport, with the maximum increase reaching up to $2,000 [1]

据日本共同社：美国将考虑降低针对日本的14%的特定关税，但拒绝完全豁免日本的"对等"关税。 ...

日本央行行长植田和男：如果美国总统特朗普将关税降至零或维持在较低水平，那么加息速度可能会更 快。 ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed positive movement with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.51%, setting expectations for May's market performance [1] - In the U.S., the trade deficit reached a record $162 billion in March, significantly exceeding economists' forecasts of $145 billion, driven by a 5% increase in imports [1] - Retailers in the U.S. are expected to face inventory shortages in the coming weeks, which may impact consumer shopping choices [1] Trade Relations - The U.S. government has reportedly made progress in trade negotiations, with a potential agreement expected to be finalized soon [1] - The Chinese government has denied any ongoing negotiations regarding tariffs, maintaining a firm stance [2] Automotive Industry - President Trump signed an executive order on April 30 to soften certain auto tariffs, which has led to a resurgence of price competition in the automotive market [3] - Multiple car manufacturers have introduced various discount policies to capture market demand ahead of the May holiday [3] Banking Sector - The banking sector experienced a collective adjustment, with only Agricultural Bank and Bank of Communications reporting year-on-year profit growth in Q1 [4] - Major banks reported slight declines in net profits, attributed to factors such as bond market conditions and narrowing net interest margins [4] Technology Sector - The technology sector, particularly in AI, is gaining momentum, with significant stock price increases for companies involved in AI and related technologies [5] - Companies like Kingsoft Cloud and Meitu have seen substantial stock price increases, reflecting investor interest in AI advancements [5] Environmental Initiatives - The Ministry of Water Resources in China is launching a year-long initiative to enhance ecological protection in the Yellow River basin, which is expected to stimulate the environmental protection industry [7] - Key companies in the environmental sector include China Everbright Environment and Beijing Enterprises Water Group [7] Robotics and Automation - UBTECH Robotics has signed a global first contract for small-batch humanoid robots, marking a significant milestone in the robotics industry [8] - The demand for humanoid robots in the automotive sector is projected to grow significantly by 2025 and 2030, positioning UBTECH as a key player in this market [9]