2026年02月13日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 不锈钢：二月检修减产频出，成本支撑重心上移 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com | 镍：印尼与菲律宾消息博弈，镍价宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：二月检修减产频出，成本支撑重心上移 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：周度库存去库，关注节前资金行为 | 4 | | 工业硅：关注下方空间 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注节后现货成交情况 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 13 日 镍：印尼与菲律宾消息博弈，镍价宽幅震荡 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 139,610 | 250 | 5,180 | -7,860 | 1,160 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The Tianhong Nonferrous Metals ETF (159157) has seen significant growth, with a more than 12% increase from its recent low and a trading volume of 2.13 billion yuan, indicating active market participation [1][2]. Group 1: ETF Performance - As of February 12, 2026, the Tianhong Nonferrous Metals ETF reached a new high in size at 19.33 billion yuan and a total of 1.924 billion shares, marking a record since its inception [1]. - The ETF has experienced continuous net inflows over the past five days, totaling 8.23 billion yuan, with a peak single-day inflow of 2.69 billion yuan [2]. Group 2: Product Highlights - The Tianhong Nonferrous Metals ETF closely tracks the Industrial Nonferrous Metals Index (H11059.CSI), selecting 30 large-cap companies involved in copper, aluminum, rare earths, lead-zinc, tungsten, and molybdenum, with copper and aluminum accounting for over 50% of the index weight [3]. Group 3: Market Trends - The demand for copper is expected to surge due to the dual drivers of AI and new energy, with significant increases in retail and wholesale sales of new energy vehicles by 42% and 39% respectively in early February, indicating rapid market expansion [5]. - The tightening supply of copper, combined with optimistic market sentiment regarding demand in the new energy sector, is likely to push up copper prices further [5]. Group 4: Institutional Insights - Citic Securities emphasizes the importance of capitalizing on the copper sector's pullback opportunities, citing supply-side production cuts and steady demand as foundational elements for a favorable copper price outlook in 2026 [6].

Core Viewpoint - The State Council issued the "Implementation Opinions on Improving the National Unified Electricity Market System," which aims to establish a unified, open, competitive, safe, efficient, and well-governed electricity market system to support energy security and economic growth [1][2]. Group 1: Background and Significance - The establishment of a national unified electricity market system is a key indicator of the construction of a unified national market and a significant achievement in deepening electricity system reform [2]. - The new electricity market system is essential for optimizing electricity resource allocation, ensuring stable energy supply, and meeting the increasing demands for electricity cost and reliability from economic development and public life [2]. Group 2: Overall Requirements - The opinions emphasize the need for a unified national market, breaking down market segmentation and regional barriers, and promoting efficient connectivity and dynamic balance between electricity supply and demand [2]. - The goal is to create a well-functioning market with unified and efficient trading rules, fair profit distribution, and strong support for energy security and green low-carbon transformation [2]. Group 3: Key Tasks and Innovative Measures - The opinions outline 19 key tasks across five areas, including optimizing electricity resource allocation, enhancing market functions, and promoting equal participation of various market entities [3]. - A significant innovation is the shift from "individual pricing and trading" to "unified pricing and joint trading" across different market levels, with specific requirements for the connection between various market types [3][4]. - The establishment of a capacity market is proposed to ensure the reliable compensation of supportive resources like coal power and new energy storage, enhancing the system's capacity for reliable supply [4]. Group 4: Participation of New Energy and Private Enterprises - The opinions propose differentiated market entry paths for various forms of new energy projects, aiming to better integrate them into the electricity market [4]. - Measures are introduced to facilitate the participation of private enterprises in the electricity market, including new storage technologies and virtual power plants, while allowing small and medium-sized commercial users to directly participate in the market [5]. - A multi-governance system is to be established to ensure market safety and efficiency, involving government design, independent regulation, and collaborative management by market participants [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant price increases in various consumer goods in Wuhan, driven by factors such as AI demand and structural adjustments in supply chains [1][4]. - In January, the price of data storage devices in Wuhan rose by 85.3% year-on-year, reflecting the growing demand from the AI industry [1]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Wuhan increased by 0.5% year-on-year in January, which is higher than the national increase of 0.2% and the provincial increase of 0.1% [1]. Group 2 - The market for service consumption is active, with customized and deep travel becoming popular, leading to a 4.0% year-on-year increase in semi-self-service travel prices [2]. - Prices for online audio-visual services surged by 16.2% year-on-year, indicating a growing willingness to pay for content [2]. - The price of gasoline at gas stations decreased by 11.8% year-on-year, providing savings for drivers, while the price of electricity for vehicles increased by 7.6% [2]. Group 3 - The price of food items shifted from an increase to a decrease, with fresh vegetable prices still rising but at a reduced rate, and pork prices dropping by 13.4% year-on-year [2]. - The increase in prices for smart products and upgraded services, along with consumption related to new energy, reflects the resilience of urban consumption and industrial transformation [4].

Company Project Advancement - The company announced its first photovoltaic power generation construction project contract worth 42.5 million RMB, responsible for the construction of a 300 MW centralized photovoltaic project in Hebei, scheduled to start by December 31, 2025 [2] - This project marks the company's official entry into the renewable energy sector, with a need to monitor construction progress, capacity realization, and any disclosure of interim results [2] Strategic Progress - The company is transitioning from traditional logistics to clean energy services through the photovoltaic project, which is seen as a substantial advancement in business expansion by the Chief Operating Officer [3] - If the project progresses smoothly, it could become a new revenue growth point, prompting investors to watch for announcements of similar new contracts or regional expansion plans [3] Performance and Operating Conditions - Recent financial disclosures indicate the company reported revenues of 27.19 million USD and a net profit of 575,300 USD [4] - While the company has not disclosed a specific timeline for events beyond 2026, it is expected to release quarterly financial reports, with the next report likely to include initial impact assessments of the project [4] Industry Policy and Environment - The transportation and logistics industry is characterized by high volatility, with factors such as AI technology application and global supply chain changes potentially impacting the company's business [5] - Should the company deepen its renewable energy layout, it will need to address industry competition and policy compliance risks, including international green electricity standards or trade barriers [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the proactive measures taken by energy state-owned enterprises in China to ensure energy supply stability ahead of the Spring Festival, highlighting the importance of both traditional and renewable energy sources in maintaining a robust energy supply system [1][2][3]. Group 1: Energy Supply Stability - Energy state-owned enterprises are enhancing the energy supply system through increased coal production and stable electricity generation, with China Coal producing 54.22 million tons of coal and the National Energy Group generating 153.79 billion kWh of electricity, a year-on-year increase of 17.6% [1][2]. - The coal supply has been crucial, with China Coal's self-operated coal sales reaching 91.08 million tons, up 11.7% year-on-year, and railway transport volume increasing by 11.1% to 64.19 million tons [1][2]. Group 2: Renewable Energy Integration - Renewable energy is becoming a significant growth driver in the energy supply system, with the first wind power project by China Huaneng in Tibet generating over 223 million kWh annually and the world's first 20 MW offshore wind turbine successfully connected to the grid [2][3]. - The clean energy sector is expected to be the main source of electricity growth, with projections indicating that over 300 million kW of new renewable energy capacity will be added by 2026 [3]. Group 3: Financial Support for Energy Supply - The issuance of special bonds for energy supply by major power companies like China Huaneng and Datang Power is providing low-cost financing to support stable energy supply and green transformation [4]. - The trend of increasing frequency and decreasing interest rates for these special bonds indicates a strong financial backing for energy supply initiatives, with rates dropping to as low as 1.87% for Huaneng's bonds [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Yihau New Materials, is experiencing strong demand for its copper foil products, driven by the growth in applications such as AI servers, and is focusing on expanding its high-end copper foil production capacity to enhance its vertical integration in the industry [1][5]. Group 1: Company Overview - Yihau New Materials is one of the few companies in China with a complete "copper foil - copper-clad laminate - PCB" industrial chain layout, and its annual production capacity of electrolytic copper foil ranks among the top in the industry [1]. - The company was established in 2003 and has developed a full industrial chain from electrolytic copper foil to aluminum-based copper-clad laminates and printed circuit boards, listing on the Growth Enterprise Market in September 2022 [1][2]. Group 2: Technological Innovation - Technological innovation is a key competitive advantage for Yihau New Materials, which has established a unique technological synergy by integrating core technologies for electronic circuit copper foil, aluminum-based copper-clad laminates, and PCBs [2]. - The company has continuously increased its R&D investment, resulting in a diverse product structure that includes ultra-thin copper, thin copper foil, and conventional copper foil, with a complete product system covering thicknesses from 9μm to 210μm [2]. Group 3: Production Capacity and Project Updates - The company announced a delay in the completion of its "annual production of 10,000 tons of high-precision electrolytic copper foil project," with the remaining 5,500 tons expected to be operational by June 2026 [4]. - The first phase of the project, with an annual capacity of 4,500 tons, is already operational, and the company is focusing on the careful installation and debugging of major production equipment for the remaining capacity [4]. Group 4: Market Position and Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, Yihau New Materials achieved revenue of 1.218 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.26%, with the third quarter alone seeing a revenue growth of 35.09% [5]. - The company has established a highly flexible production management system to quickly respond to diverse customer demands for thickness, width, and performance, effectively meeting the characteristics of copper foil orders [5]. Group 5: Strategic Focus on New Energy - Yihau New Materials is positioning itself in the new energy sector, developing nickel-plated copper foil for solid-state batteries and porous copper foil, while also enhancing its production capabilities for ultra-thin, thick, and high-frequency copper foils [5]. - The equipment and processes of the "annual production of 10,000 tons of high-precision electrolytic copper foil project" will allow for the switching of production between electronic circuit copper foil and lithium battery copper foil, significantly boosting high-end production capacity [5].

Core Insights - The 10th International Carbon Materials Conference and Exhibition (Carbontech 2026) will take place from June 10-12, 2026, at the Shanghai New International Expo Center, reflecting the acceleration of strategic emerging industries and high-end manufacturing systems in China [1][2] - Carbon materials, including carbon fiber, carbon nanotubes, graphene, and silicon-carbon anodes, are becoming essential materials for future industries due to their unique physical and chemical properties [1][3] Group 1: Event Overview - Carbontech 2026 will merge with the iTherM2026 and AMTE2026 exhibitions to form the FINE2026, aiming to establish a benchmark exhibition in the new materials sector with a focus on future industries [2] - The exhibition will cover an area of 50,000 square meters, featuring over 800 participating companies, 200+ research institutions, and attracting more than 100,000 professional visitors [2] Group 2: Industry Significance - Carbon materials have maintained their strategic importance throughout various stages of industrial civilization, evolving from graphite and activated carbon to advanced materials like diamond semiconductors and carbon fiber [3] - The conference serves as a vital platform for academic exchange and industry collaboration, showcasing the strategic value and enduring vitality of carbon materials in energy, information, and advanced technology sectors [3] Group 3: Recent Developments - The 2025 Carbontech event attracted over 10,000 professional visitors and featured nearly 400 exhibitors, highlighting the industry's growth and the increasing interest in carbon materials [6][8] - The event included specialized areas focusing on diamond and superhard materials, as well as carbon materials for energy and equipment, demonstrating the innovative applications and solutions in strategic fields [8][11] Group 4: Future Trends - With the rapid development of emerging industries such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and new energy vehicles, carbon materials are expected to experience significant growth and application expansion [11] - The conference will feature a dedicated area for new product launches, allowing companies to showcase technological breakthroughs and connect with potential customers [14]

Core Insights - Transformers have become a scarce resource due to the rapid iteration of artificial intelligence and large-scale data center construction, leading to a surge in electricity demand since 2025 [1][2] - China has emerged as the world's largest transformer producer, accounting for approximately 60% of global production capacity, and has established the most complete transformer manufacturing system [2][3] Demand Side - The global AI computing competition has intensified, with regions like Europe, the Middle East, and others accelerating the construction of large-scale data centers, resulting in exponential growth in electricity demand [2] - AI chips are highly sensitive to voltage fluctuations, necessitating high-power, low-loss, and highly reliable customized transformers for AI computing infrastructure [2] Supply Side - The transformer industry in Europe and the U.S. has suffered from years of low demand and insufficient investment, leading to a significant supply gap and long delivery cycles for large transformers [2] - China's advantages in the entire supply chain and rapid response capabilities allow it to produce high-end transformers at lower costs and shorter delivery times, making it the only country capable of quickly responding to large-scale orders [2][3] Competitive Advantages - China has built a fully autonomous and efficient transformer supply chain, from raw material processing to manufacturing, which enhances production efficiency and quality control [3] - Chinese companies are developing high-power, low-loss transformers tailored for AI data centers and exploring new products like solid-state transformers to meet diverse energy needs [3] - Chinese transformer manufacturers are expanding globally, establishing production bases and service centers abroad, and transitioning from product export to integrated output of technology, standards, and services [3] Market Dynamics - The global demand for transformers reflects the irreplaceability of Chinese manufacturing, driven by supply chain resilience and continuous investment in technological innovation [4] - The intersection of energy and technology is crucial for the expansion of computing power, with China's rise in the power equipment sector providing stable energy support for global AI development [4] - The challenge remains for the industry to convert its advantages into sustainable technological competitiveness and to play a proactive role in the restructuring of global supply chains [4]

Core Viewpoint - The new refinancing policies introduced by the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges aim to enhance the flexibility and convenience of refinancing for listed companies, leading to a surge in refinancing proposals from these companies [1][2]. Group 1: Refinancing Policy Changes - The new refinancing regulations focus on supporting high-quality listed companies, optimizing review efficiency, adapting to the needs of innovative enterprises, simplifying application processes, and strengthening overall supervision [2]. - The exchanges have clarified that they will optimize refinancing reviews for companies with good governance and information disclosure, thereby improving refinancing efficiency [2]. - A new standard for "light asset, high R&D investment" recognition for main board listed companies is being researched to better accommodate technology innovation enterprises [2]. Group 2: Company Responses and Proposals - From February 10 to February 12, 18 listed companies disclosed refinancing proposals, including four companies planning to issue convertible bonds and 14 companies planning to conduct targeted placements [1]. - Zhongke Shuguang plans to raise up to 8 billion yuan through convertible bonds to invest in AI-related projects [3]. - Jiangsu New Energy plans to raise up to 1.24 billion yuan for a power generation project and working capital [4]. - Xinhang New Materials intends to raise up to 1 billion yuan for various production projects [4]. - Unisplendour plans to raise up to 5.57 billion yuan for acquisitions and R&D equipment [4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The concentration of refinancing proposals indicates a positive market sentiment regarding the optimization of the financing environment, with companies eager to accelerate development through refinancing [4]. - Experts suggest that the new regulations will facilitate targeted funding for high-quality technology innovation enterprises, encouraging a focus on R&D and core business development [4][5].