Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The A - share market may experience a weak rebound after reaching the bottom, while the futures market has increased trading volume and open interest, and the basis of each variety may widen again. The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate, and it is recommended to take a neutral - to - long approach to the T - contract. In the agricultural product market, different varieties have different trends such as price fluctuations and supply - demand changes. The black metal market is affected by factors like production capacity, cost, and policy, with steel prices fluctuating within a range. The non - ferrous metal market is influenced by the Fed's policy and supply - demand fundamentals, with precious metals waiting for a directional breakthrough [20][22]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures** - Core view: The A - share market may experience a weak rebound after reaching the bottom. The futures market has increased trading volume and open interest, and the basis of each variety may widen again [20]. - Trading strategy: Control positions in the unilateral trading, consider IM\IC long 2512 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage, and use the double - buying strategy for options [20]. - **Treasury Futures** - Core view: The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate. It is recommended to take a neutral - to - long approach to the T - contract and pay attention to potential cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities in the next - quarter contracts [22]. - Trading strategy: Take a neutral - to - long approach and buy T - contracts on dips in the short - term. Pay attention to potential cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities in the next - quarter contracts [22]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal** - Core view: The supply pressure is emerging, and domestic supply is abundant. The price of rapeseed meal is expected to fluctuate, and soybean meal has price support [25]. - Trading strategy: Short - sell a small amount of long - dated rapeseed meal contracts, hold off on arbitrage, and use the short - strangle strategy for options [26]. - **Sugar** - Core view: International sugar prices are slightly stronger, while domestic sugar prices are weaker. However, the downward space for domestic sugar prices is limited [28][29]. - Trading strategy: Consider buying on dips in the short - term, conduct long January and short May arbitrage, and sell put options at low prices [29]. - **Oilseeds and Oils** - Core view: Palm oil may fluctuate weakly, soybean oil follows the overall trend, and rapeseed oil is expected to continue to destock [32]. - Trading strategy: Trade in a short - term range, hold off on arbitrage, and hold off on options [32]. - **Corn/Corn Starch** - Core view: The spot price of corn is strong, and the futures price fluctuates at a high level. The price of corn starch is also affected [34]. - Trading strategy: Short - buy the December CBOT corn on dips, short - sell the January corn on rallies, and wait for the May and July corn to pull back. Narrow the spread between January corn and starch. Hold off on options [34]. - **Hogs** - Core view: The supply pressure is increasing, and the spot price is falling. Although there is some support, the overall supply is still high [37]. - Trading strategy: Hold off on trading, hold off on arbitrage, and use the short - strangle strategy for options [37]. - **Peanuts** - Core view: The spot price is stable, and the futures price fluctuates at the bottom. The new - season peanuts are on the market, but oil mills have not purchased in large quantities [40]. - Trading strategy: Short - sell the January peanuts on rallies, hold off on the May peanuts, conduct reverse arbitrage for the January - May spread, and sell the pk601 - P - 7600 option [40]. - **Eggs** - Core view: The demand is average, and the price is stable with a slight decline. The supply of laying hens is still high, and the short - term price increase space is limited [44]. - Trading strategy: Hold off on trading in the short - term [45]. - **Apples** - Core view: The demand is average, and the price is mainly stable. The apple quality is relatively poor, and the effective inventory is expected to be low [51]. - Trading strategy: Hold off on trading, hold off on arbitrage, and hold off on options [51]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn** - Core view: The fundamental contradiction is not significant, and the cotton price fluctuates mainly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season [54]. - Trading strategy: The US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are expected to fluctuate in a range. Hold off on arbitrage and options [54]. Black Metals - **Steel** - Core view: Steel prices fluctuate within a range, and there is still room to reduce hot metal production. The cost has support, but the upward pressure still exists [57]. - Trading strategy: The price will maintain a fluctuating trend. Long the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar on dips. Hold off on options [58]. - **Coking Coal and Coke** - Core view: The downward risk has been released. The short - term is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to go long on the far - month contracts on dips after the market stabilizes [61]. - Trading strategy: Stop losses on short positions in the short - term. Go long on the far - month contracts on dips after the market stabilizes. Continue to hold the reverse arbitrage of coking coal January/May contracts. Hold off on options [61]. - **Iron Ore** - Core view: The price is expected to run weakly at a high level. The supply is loose, and the demand is low [63]. - Trading strategy: Adopt a short - bias trading strategy. Hold off on arbitrage and options [63]. - **Ferroalloys** - Core view: The price fluctuates at the bottom under the trend of production reduction. The fundamentals are in a pattern of both supply and demand declining, and the cost has support [64]. - Trading strategy: The price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom. Hold off on arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [65]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals** - Core view: The Fed's "hawk - dove" divergence intensifies, and precious metals fluctuate and wait for a direction. The US dollar index exerts pressure, but the downward space is limited [67]. - Trading strategy: Conservative investors hold off on trading, while aggressive investors can try to go long on dips near the 20 - day moving average. Hold off on arbitrage and options [68]. - **Copper** - Core view: Short - term attention should be paid to the lower support. The supply is expected to increase, and the price may fluctuate in a high - level range [70]. - Trading strategy: Hold long positions below 86,000 yuan/ton in the short - term. Adopt a low - buying strategy in the long - term. Hold off on arbitrage and options [70]. - **Alumina** - Core view: The substantial production reduction has not been realized, and attention should be paid to the transfer of warehouse receipts to cash. The price is expected to be weak in the short - term [74]. - Trading strategy: The price is expected to be weak until the warehouse receipts are circulated. Hold off on arbitrage and options [74]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum** - Core view: The dovish speech of Fed officials eases the pressure on Shanghai aluminum. The fundamental support for the medium - term price is still there [77]. - Trading strategy: The price is expected to stabilize in the short - term. Pay attention to the narrowing of the spread between East China and Central China in the spot market. Hold off on options [78]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy** - Core view: The macro - expectation disturbance still exists, and the alloy price mainly follows the aluminum price. The cost provides support, but the demand is cautious [81]. - Trading strategy: The price may stabilize due to the repair of the interest - rate cut expectation. Hold off on arbitrage and options [81]. - **Zinc** - Core view: The price fluctuates widely. The smelting profit is compressed, and the production may be lower than expected. The consumption is in the off - season [85]. - Trading strategy: Try to go long on dips. Be vigilant about the influence of overseas funds on the zinc price. Hold off on arbitrage and options [85]. - **Lead** - Core view: The price fluctuates in a range. The supply recovers, but the consumption weakens, and the inventory accumulates [87]. - Trading strategy: The price may fluctuate weakly in a range. Hold off on arbitrage and options [88]. - **Nickel** - Core view: High inventory suppresses the upward space of the nickel price. The supply and demand are both weak, and the price rebound is limited [91]. - Trading strategy: Short - sell on rallies. Hold off on arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money call options [92]. - **Stainless Steel** - Core view: The supply and demand are both weak, and the raw material price is under pressure. The cost is declining, and the price rebound is weak [95]. - Trading strategy: No specific trading strategy provided in the given text. - **Industrial Silicon** - Core view: The price may pull back in the short - term, and it is recommended to buy on dips after a sufficient pull - back. The supply - demand balance is tight during the dry season [97]. - Trading strategy: Buy on dips after a sufficient pull - back. Conduct cash - and - carry arbitrage for Si2601 and Si2602. Sell put options after the pull - back [100]. - **Polysilicon** - Core view: Pay attention to the establishment of the platform company and short - sell on rallies [101]. - Trading strategy: Short - sell on rallies. Hold off on arbitrage [101]. Others - **Shipping** - Core view: There are still differences in the market, and the price fluctuates. Attention should be paid to the subsequent adjustment of shipping schedules [15]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - **Energy and Chemicals** - **Crude Oil** - Core view: Geopolitical risks have cooled down, and the oil price runs weakly [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - **Asphalt** - Core view: The supply and demand remain weak, and the cost runs weakly [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - **Fuel Oil** - Core view: High - sulfur fuel oil is weak, and the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil increases more than expected [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - **PX & PTA** - Core view: The sentiment has cooled down, and the reality is weak [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - **Ethylene Glycol** - Core view: There is still an expectation of inventory accumulation, and the price declines [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - **Short Fiber** - Core view: Domestic demand declines seasonally [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - **PR (Bottle Chips)** - Core view: The demand expectation in the off - season weakens [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - Core view: The import volume increases, and the inventory is expected to rise [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - **Propylene** - Core view: The load decreases, but the supply pressure is still large [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - **Plastic PP** - Core view: The total import and export volume of PE&PP decreases [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - **Caustic Soda** - Core view: The price of caustic soda is weak [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - **PVC** - Core view: The price hovers at the bottom [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - **Soda Ash** - Core view: The price fluctuates weakly [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - **Glass** - Core view: The demand is weak [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - **Methanol** - Core view: The price continues to fluctuate [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - **Urea** - Core view: The quotation is weakly stable, and the transaction is weak [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - **Paper Pulp** - Core view: The port inventory continues to accumulate, and the futures market is under pressure [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - **Log** - Core view: The spot price of logs runs weakly [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - **Offset Printing Paper** - Core view: The supply pressure remains high, and the rebound is weak [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - **Natural Rubber and 20 -号 Rubber** - Core view: The concentrated cancellation of contract warehouse receipts reaches a new low since 2012 [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - **Butadiene Rubber** - Core view: The inventory of tire finished products accumulates year - on - year and month - on - month [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text.

当前，市场密切关注即将公布的美国9月PPI及零售销售数据，若数据偏热，或削弱降息预期，强化美 元，对金价构成压力；反之，温和数据则将进一步巩固黄金多头格局。 【最新现货黄金行情解析】 黄金日线图显示价格仍维持在区间震荡中运行。金价稳定在主要短期均线之上，而9日与20日均线保持 多头排列，说明上行动能依旧稳固。MACD红柱持续放大，动能指标延续多头主导格局，但RSI已逼近 超买区间，暗示短线可能面临一定回调压力。 摘要今日周一（11月24日）亚盘时段，在亚洲早盘时段，金价攀升至4075美元附近后再度回落。这一波 动源于美联储官员暗示未来仍有降息可能，促使市场对12月政策会议的降息预期显著升温。目前，市场 聚焦即将公布的PPI与零售销售数据，其结果将左右市场对通胀态势及政策走向的判断。若数据显示通 胀压力抬头，或削弱降息预期，推动美元反弹，进而抑制金价上行。 今日周一（11月24日）亚盘时段，在亚洲早盘时段，金价攀升至4075美元附近后再度回落。这一波动源 于美联储官员暗示未来仍有降息可能，促使市场对12月政策会议的降息预期显著升温。目前，市场聚焦 即将公布的PPI与零售销售数据，其结果将左右市场对通胀态势及政策 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: The expectation of interest rate cuts has rebounded [2]. - Silver: It is in a state of oscillatory adjustment [2]. - Copper: The reduction in inventory supports the price [2][11]. - Zinc: It is in a range - bound oscillation [2][14]. - Lead: The reduction in inventory restricts the price decline [2][17]. - Tin: It has declined from a high level [2][20]. - Aluminum: Attention should be paid to the lower support [2][24]. - Alumina: There is still fundamental pressure [2][24]. - Cast aluminum alloy: It follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][24]. - Nickel: The pace of inventory accumulation has slightly slowed down, with short - term disturbances from the macro and news [2][27]. - Stainless steel: The steel price is pressured and oscillating at a low level, but the downside potential is limited [2][27]. - Lithium carbonate: The game between long and short positions has intensified. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of large factories [2][32]. - Industrial silicon: Attention should be paid to the bottom support of the disk [2][36]. - Polysilicon: As it approaches the centralized cancellation period, attention should be paid to the changes in warehouse receipts [2][36]. - Iron ore: The downstream demand space is limited, and the valuation is high [2][39]. - Rebar: It is in a wide - range oscillation [2][42]. - Hot - rolled coil: It is in a wide - range oscillation [2][43]. - Ferrosilicon: The cost provides bottom support, and it is in a wide - range oscillation [2][49]. - Silicomanganese: The cost provides bottom support, and it is in a wide - range oscillation [2][49]. - Coke: It is in a wide - range oscillation [2][54]. - Coking coal: It is in a wide - range oscillation [2][54]. - Log: It is in a weak oscillation [2][56]. - p - Xylene: Do not chase high in the short term [2]. - PTA: It is in a unilateral oscillatory market. Do not chase high [2]. - MEG: The supply - demand pattern has improved. Short positions should be reduced [2]. - Rubber: It is oscillating [2]. - Synthetic rubber: It is operating weakly within the valuation range [2]. - Asphalt: It is following the weak operation of crude oil [2]. - LLDPE: The import offers may decrease, and the cracking load is disturbed [2]. - PP: Do not chase short in the short term. There is still pressure in the medium - term trend [2]. - Caustic soda: There is still pressure in the trend [2]. - Pulp: It is oscillating [2]. - Glass: The price of the original sheet is stable [2]. - Methanol: It is oscillating weakly, and the downside space is narrowing [2]. - Urea: It is oscillating [2]. - Styrene: It is oscillating in the short term [2]. - Soda ash: There is little change in the spot market [2]. - LPG: The downstream demand is differentiated. Attention should be paid to the cost changes [5]. - Propylene: The upward driving force has weakened, and the cost support is relatively strong [5]. - PVC: Do not chase short. It is oscillating at a low level [5]. - Fuel oil: The downward trend has reappeared. It may be stronger than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term [5]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The weakness continues, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market has shrunk [5]. - Container shipping index (European line): It is in an oscillatory consolidation [5]. - Staple fiber: It is in a short - term oscillatory market [5]. - Bottle chips: It is in a short - term oscillatory market, and the processing fee is compressed [5]. - Offset printing paper: It is oscillating at a low level [5]. - Pure benzene: The gasoline crack spread has回调, and the inventory pressure of pure benzene at the port has emerged [5]. - Palm oil: There are doubts about the inventory reduction in the producing areas. Be vigilant against a second dip [5]. - Soybean oil: The price of US soybeans has declined, and it is mainly oscillating within a range [5]. - Soybean meal: The US soybeans closed higher overnight. It may follow the rebound [5]. - Soybean No. 1: It is oscillating [5]. - Corn: It is oscillating [5]. - Sugar: The total import volume and structure are the key [5]. - Cotton: It is expected to maintain an oscillatory trend [5]. - Eggs: The volume of culling has increased, and there is expected support [5]. - Live pigs: The social pig slaughtering node is approaching [5]. - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the spot [5]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and inventories of domestic and foreign gold and silver futures and spot markets are provided. For example, the closing price of沪金2512 was 932.56, with a daily decline of 0.47%, and the closing price of沪银2512 was 12046, with a daily decline of 0.81% [6]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The "third - in - command" of the Federal Reserve signaled dovishness, indicating that there is still room for interest rate cuts in the "near term". The market's expectation of a December interest rate cut exceeded 70% during the session [7]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of gold and silver is 0, indicating a neutral stance [9]. Copper - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, inventories, and price spreads of domestic and foreign copper futures and spot markets are presented. For example, the closing price of沪铜主力合约 was 85,660, with a daily decline of 0.55%, and the inventory of沪铜 decreased by 5,193 tons [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: After the "third - in - command" of the Federal Reserve signaled dovishness, the price of US Treasury bonds accelerated its rise, and the yield reached a new low this month. The US dollar index rose and reached a nearly six - month high. The initial value of the US S&P Global Composite PMI in November was 54.8, the highest in four months [11]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of copper is 0, indicating a neutral stance [13]. Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, inventories, and price spreads of domestic and foreign zinc futures and spot markets are given. For example, the closing price of沪锌主力 was 22390, with a daily increase of 0.02%, and the inventory of沪锌 decreased by 771 tons [14]. - **News**: Trump - appointed Federal Reserve governor Milan said that the impact of the September non - farm payrolls report was "obviously dovish", and the November CPI might be released after the December interest rate decision [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of zinc is 0, indicating a neutral stance [16]. Lead - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, inventories, and price spreads of domestic and foreign lead futures and spot markets are provided. For example, the closing price of沪铅主力 was 17165, with a daily decline of 0.32%, and the inventory of沪铅 decreased by 601 tons [17]. - **News**: After the "third - in - command" of the Federal Reserve signaled dovishness, the price of US Treasury bonds accelerated its rise, and the yield reached a new low this month. The US dollar index rose and reached a nearly six - month high [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lead is 0, indicating a neutral stance [18]. Tin - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, inventories, and price spreads of domestic and foreign tin futures and spot markets are presented. For example, the closing price of沪锡主力合约 was 292,030, with a daily decline of 0.46%, and the inventory of沪锡 increased by 31 tons [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The "third - in - command" of the Federal Reserve signaled dovishness, indicating that there is still room for interest rate cuts in the "near term". The market's expectation of a December interest rate cut exceeded 70% during the session [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of tin is 0, indicating a neutral stance [23]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, inventories, and price spreads of domestic and foreign aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy futures and spot markets are given. For example, the closing price of沪铝主力合约 was 21340, with a decline of 190 compared to the previous trading day [24]. - **Comprehensive News**: The "third - in - command" of the Federal Reserve signaled dovishness, indicating that there is still room for interest rate cuts in the "near term". The market's expectation of a December interest rate cut exceeded 70% during the session [26]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy are all 0, indicating a neutral stance [26]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, inventories, and price spreads of domestic and foreign nickel and stainless - steel futures and spot markets are provided. For example, the closing price of沪镍主力 was 114,050, with a decline of 1,330 compared to the previous trading day [27]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Due to violations of forestry license regulations, the Indonesian forestry working group took over more than 148 hectares of the PT Weda Bay Nickel mining area. China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia [27]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of nickel and stainless steel are +1, indicating a moderately bullish stance [31]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, inventories, and price spreads of lithium carbonate futures and spot markets are presented. For example, the closing price of the 2601 contract was 91,020, with a decline of 7,960 compared to the previous trading day [32]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 92801 yuan/ton, a increase of 401 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day [33]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral stance [35]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, inventories, and price spreads of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures and spot markets are given. For example, the closing price of Si2601 was 8,960, with a decline of 115 compared to the previous trading day [36]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On November 14, the government of Urad Rear Banner held a project docking and negotiation meeting with China Association for Science and Technology Zhongti Zhengli Group, discussing a 400,000 - ton organic silicon and 200,000 - ton industrial silicon project [36]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, indicating a neutral stance, and the trend intensity of polysilicon is 1, indicating a moderately bullish stance [38]. Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, inventories, and price spreads of iron - ore futures and spot markets are provided. For example, the closing price of iron - ore futures was 785.5 yuan/ton, with a decline of 3.0 yuan/ton [39]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In October, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 4.9% year - on - year [40]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is - 1, indicating a moderately bearish stance [40]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, inventories, and price spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot markets are presented. For example, the closing price of RB2601 was 3,057 yuan/ton, with an increase of 2 yuan/ton [43]. - **Macro and Industry News**: According to the weekly data from Steel Union on November 20, the output of rebar increased by 7.96 tons, and the output of hot - rolled coil increased by 2.35 tons [44]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of rebar and hot - rolled coil are 0, indicating a neutral stance [47]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, inventories, and price spreads of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures and spot markets are given. For example, the closing price of the ferrosilicon 2603 contract was 5472 yuan/ton, with an increase of 26 yuan/ton [49]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On November 21, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi was 5050 - 5150 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi was 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton [50]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are 0, indicating a neutral stance [52]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, inventories, and price spreads of coke and coking - coal futures and spot markets are provided. For example, the closing price of JM2601 was 1103 yuan/ton, with a decline of 10.5 yuan/ton [54]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission organized a video conference on energy supply guarantee for the 2025 - 2026 heating season [55]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of coke and coking coal are 0, indicating a neutral stance [55]. Log There is no detailed fundamental data, news, or trend intensity information provided specifically for logs in the content, only the view that it is in a weak oscillation [56].

铜周报 降息预期回落，铜价高位调整 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 王工建 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 2025 年 11 月 24 日 ⚫ 上周铜价高位调整，主因美国非农数据超预期打压12月降 息前景，部分官员表示为了支持就业市场而降低利率可能 会延长高通胀周期，美元指数反弹承压金属市场。基本面 来看，印尼Grasberg有望将于2026年二季度复产，全球精 矿短期维持紧缺，国内精铜产量下滑，社会库存区间震荡 运行，高铜价对传统终端消费略有抑制，近月盘面转向C 结构。 ⚫ 整体来看，美国超预期的非农表现令年底降息进一步降 温，而全球科技股估值过高及AI泡沫破裂的风险令海 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 11 月 24 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 2602 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 降息预期升温 | | 铜 2601 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 偏强 | 长线看强 | 宏观宽松，矿端减产 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：上周金价震荡运行，纽约金在 4000 美元上方震荡，沪金在 920 元上方震荡。临近周末， 市场情绪出现反转。纽约联储主席威廉姆斯发表了被市场解读为"鸽派"的讲话，重燃了交易员对于 12 月可能降息 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the gold market is experiencing fluctuations influenced by interest rate expectations, with short-term price movements likely to remain volatile due to uncertainty [2][3] - As of November 24, 2025, the gold ETF fund (159937) has seen a slight increase of 0.15%, with a cumulative rise of 0.48% over the past two weeks [2] - The gold ETF fund has experienced significant net inflows, totaling 10.61 billion yuan over the past five days, with a peak single-day inflow of 3.65 billion yuan [3] Group 2 - The recent U.S. non-farm payroll report showed an increase of 119,000 jobs, exceeding market expectations, which has contributed to a cautious stance from Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate cuts [2] - The FedWatch tool indicates that the probability of a rate cut in December has risen to 70%-74%, marking a recent high [2] - Long-term trends suggest that ongoing U.S. debt issues and weakening dollar credibility will continue to support gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, with expectations for rising gold prices [3]

申万宏源策略 【申万宏源策略】降息预期波动加大，美元走强使全球权益回调——全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20251114- 20251121) 原创 阅读全文 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [3] Core Views - The report highlights ongoing speculation regarding interest rate cuts, with a focus on gold and copper markets. The expectation for a December rate cut remains uncertain, influenced by mixed employment data and the lack of CPI data due to government shutdowns. Despite fluctuations in market expectations, historical trends suggest that even if a rate cut does not occur, it will not alter the long-term direction for gold [10][11] - The impact of Russia's gold sales is deemed limited, as the country has significantly reduced its gold purchases in 2023 and is primarily selling gold domestically due to sanctions on international transactions. This is expected to have minimal effect on the global market [10] - Copper prices show resilience, remaining stable within the range of $10,600 to $11,000 per ton, supported by strong supply and demand fundamentals. Recent production guidance from Freeport has been adjusted downward, indicating a tighter supply outlook for 2026 [11] Summary by Sections Gold Market - The ongoing debate over interest rate cuts is affecting gold prices, with December cut probabilities fluctuating between 30% and 70%. The report suggests that the direction for gold remains positive regardless of short-term rate cut outcomes [10] - Russia's gold reserves are over 2,300 tons, but their recent sales are not expected to significantly impact international gold prices due to domestic selling constraints [10] Copper Market - Copper prices have shown strong resilience, not following broader market declines. The report notes a recent increase in the operating rate of copper rod production, indicating robust demand [11] - Freeport's production guidance for copper has been revised downwards, suggesting a tighter supply situation moving forward [11] - The report anticipates further upward adjustments in earnings expectations for copper mining stocks due to ongoing fiscal expansion and liquidity conditions [11] Market Performance - The report indicates that the non-ferrous metals index has underperformed the broader market, with a decline of 6.75% recently. Specific sectors such as lithium and gold have shown varying performance, with lithium stocks performing relatively better [12]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The insurance fund utilization balance reached 37.46 trillion, with investments primarily in deposits, bonds, stocks, funds, and long-term equity investments. The proportion of non-standard investments has significantly decreased and is expected to continue declining [1][2] Core Insights and Arguments - In Q3, bond investments increased by 310 billion, but the growth rate slowed compared to the 1.94 trillion increase in the first half of the year, influenced by the switch in new financial instrument regulations and a reduction in deposit rates [1][3] - The balance of bank deposits has decreased, currently estimated at about 8% of total investments, with an absolute balance close to 2 trillion [1][4] - Stock investments increased by over 550 billion, primarily due to an 18% rise in the CSI 300 index, rather than active increases in stock holdings. Long-term equity investments rose by 919 billion, reflecting a slowdown in investment momentum after the stock market rally [1][5] - Bank wealth management has seen a seasonal growth exceeding 1.5 trillion in October, with an expected annual increase of over 3 trillion, although it faces performance pressure [1][6] - Insurance companies prefer higher-yield local government bonds, but their yields are closely related to government bonds. A reduction in insurance preset rates may temporarily affect premiums, but long-term clients are expected to accept lower rates, improving premium income [1][9] Additional Important Insights - The punitive redemption fee rule has not yet been implemented, leading to a decline in the scale of actively managed pure bond funds by 743.3 billion in Q3, affecting market sentiment. If the rule is implemented, it could restore market confidence [1][11] - The Chinese economy faces downward pressure, with factors such as a real estate crisis, negative investment growth, increased export pressure, and weak domestic demand contributing to a decline in consumption growth. The central bank is expected to lower interest rates to address these challenges [1][10] - Predictions indicate that the yield on 10-year government bonds may gradually decline to 1.5% by the end of 2026, with policy rate adjustments expected in mid-December or early January [1][12]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The progress of the Russia-Ukraine solution proposed by the US is limited, with short - term market risk appetite stabilizing and the US dollar showing a volatile trend [2][15]. - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is fermenting, the market sentiment is stabilizing, but concerns about the AI bubble remain. The US stock market rebounds, but the technology sector lags in gains [3]. - Although the A - share market has experienced a significant correction, it is expected to stabilize the decline in the future due to the easing of US liquidity expectations, support for AI performance, and China's policy support for the stock market [4]. - The prices of various commodities show different trends. For example, steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term; oil prices continue to decline; and the prices of some agricultural products are affected by factors such as production volume and policy [5][6]. Summaries by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - New York Fed President Williams said there is room for an interest rate cut in December, and the Russian central bank sold some physical gold reserves. Short - term gold prices are expected to continue to fluctuate, with a risk of decline [11]. - Investment advice: Be cautious of the risk of decline in the short - term volatile gold market [12]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US is reported to be ready to take action against Venezuela, and the European leaders think the US's Russia - Ukraine peace plan needs improvement. The US - Ukraine Geneva talks are considered "fruitful", but the Russia - Ukraine solution has limited progress, and the US dollar is expected to fluctuate in the short term [13][14][15]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index is expected to fluctuate in the short term [16]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Fed officials have different views on the December interest rate cut. The US service industry growth accelerated in November, while the manufacturing industry slowed down. The market's expectation of an interest rate cut has increased, and the US stock market is expected to fluctuate upward after the market volatility decreases [17][18]. - Investment advice: Be less pessimistic about the US stock market at the end of the year, and wait for the market volatility to decrease [19]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Trump administration may approve Nvidia's sales of some AI chips to China, and the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development held a national urban renewal work promotion meeting. The A - share market is expected to stabilize the decline [20][21]. - Investment advice: There may be a small rebound in the short term, but a trend - following opportunity requires more policy changes [22]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 375 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation. The bond market is affected by factors such as the redemption pressure of structured products and concerns about the stock market rebound. The bond market is expected to turn from volatile to bearish, and short - term short - selling strategies are recommended [23][24]. - Investment advice: The bond market may turn bearish, and short - term short - selling strategies can be considered [25]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills last week was 2.3344 million tons, and it is expected to slightly decrease this week. The supply of soybean meal is sufficient, and the cost and supply - demand situation jointly affect the price. - Investment advice: The soybean meal market is currently "supported by cost and suppressed by supply - demand", and continue to pay attention to China's soybean procurement and South American production expectations [26]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The US Department of Energy reorganized to prioritize fossil fuels and nuclear energy. From November 1 to 20, the production of Malaysian palm oil increased by 10.32% month - on - month. - Investment advice: For palm oil, wait and see on the long - short side and consider 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunities; for rapeseed oil, the overall trend is expected to be weakly volatile [27][28][29]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - In October 2025, China's imports of syrup and premixed powder decreased year - on - year. Indian sugar mills are gradually starting to crush, and the NFCSF urges the Indian government to raise the minimum sugar selling price. - Investment advice: Do not be optimistic about the downside space of ICE raw sugar and Zhengzhou sugar's January contract, and be cautious about short - selling [30][33][34]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - In October 2025, China's cotton imports decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, while cotton yarn imports increased. The US cotton export sign - up continued to rise. - Investment advice: Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with an estimated range of 13,300 - 13,800 yuan; be cautiously optimistic in the long term and wait for opportunities to go long on dips [35][39][41]. 2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In 2025, China's long - product exports to Saudi Arabia almost doubled. In October, the global crude steel production was 143.3 million tons. - Investment advice: Adopt a volatile mindset when dealing with steel prices [42][44][46]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The price difference between corn starch and tapioca starch widened. - Investment advice: The price difference is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and band trading is recommended [47][48][49]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The corn selling progress in Northeast and North China is faster than the same period last year. - Investment advice: Corn prices are expected to remain high and volatile in the short term. Wait and see for the near - month contracts and do not short them for now [50][52]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Vedanta plans to invest $2 billion in Saudi copper and gold resources, and China Non - Ferrous Mining's Qianbixi Southeast Orebody is temporarily shut down. European copper manufacturers warn of a copper shortage. - Investment advice: Copper prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. Consider going long on dips and wait and see for arbitrage [53][55][56]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Two leading silicon wafer companies lowered their quotes. The polysilicon market is affected by factors such as policy and demand. - Investment advice: The futures main contract of polysilicon may operate between 50,000 - 56,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to range trading opportunities [57][59]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The shipments of northern silicon enterprises increased. The export of industrial silicon decreased more than expected. - Investment advice: The industrial silicon market may fluctuate between 8,800 - 9,500 yuan/ton in the short term. Pay attention to range trading opportunities [60][61]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Ruitai New Materials plans to jointly invest 200 million yuan in Terui Lianteng. The futures price limit - down due to regulatory measures. - Investment advice: The short - term futures price may face pressure. Consider short - selling on rallies with a light position [62][64]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Some nickel intermediate product projects in an Indonesian park are expected to reduce production. - Investment advice: Existing short - positions can gradually take profits, and consider going long on dips with a light position. Evaluate the resource contraction in Indonesia in the medium term [66][67]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The Garpenberg mine in Sweden was approved to expand its environmental permit. The LME lead inventory increased. - Investment advice: Take profits at low levels in the short term for the long - short side; wait and see for arbitrage and cross - market trading [68][69][70]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME 0 - 3 zinc premium is high, and the Garpenberg mine in Sweden was approved to expand its environmental permit. - Investment advice: Wait and see on the long - short side; hold long - spread positions for calendar spread arbitrage and short - spread positions for cross - market arbitrage in the short term [71][72]. 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - On November 21, the closing price of the EUA main contract was 80.41 euros/ton. - Investment advice: The EU carbon price is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term [73][74]. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs increased. Oil prices continued to decline. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the prospects of the Russia - Ukraine negotiations. Oil prices are expected to remain weakly volatile in the short term [75][76]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The prices of different pulp varieties in the import market showed different trends. - Investment advice: The pulp market is expected to fluctuate in the future [77]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle chip factories were mostly lowered. - Investment advice: The short - term supply - demand contradiction of bottle chips is not prominent, and the absolute price mainly follows the fluctuations of polyester raw materials [78][81]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The price of soda ash in the South China market was stable on November 21. - Investment advice: In the short term, the soda ash market has certain support; in the medium term, adopt a bearish mindset and consider short - selling far - month contracts on rallies [82]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market decreased on November 21. - Investment advice: The January contract of float glass is under pressure. Pay attention to the support at 950 yuan/ton and the risk of short - covering rebounds caused by news [83][84].