智通财经APP获悉，关税问题再度引发市场担忧，当地时间5月30日，美国总统特朗普表示，美国将从6 月初起把进口钢铁和铝的关税从目前的25%上调至50%。受此消息刺激，6月3日，COMEX黄金期货主 力合约收涨2.74%，报3406.4美元/盎司。高盛指出，若贸易摩擦升级至全面对抗，预计2025年末金价或 突破4200美元。 紫金矿业(02899)：5月26日，紫金矿业公告称，公司拟将其控股子公司紫金黄金国际分拆至香港联交所 主板上市，并计划在上市前将下属多座境外黄金矿山资产重组整合至紫金黄金国际旗下。本次拟分拆上 市资产由八座位于南美、中亚、非洲和大洋洲的世界级大型黄金矿山组成。 山东黄金(01787)：山东黄金2025年一季度收入为259.4亿元，同比上升36.8%；归母净利润为10.3亿元， 同比上升46.6%；基本每股收益0.20元。 灵宝黄金(03330)：灵宝黄金公告，公司预计2025年第一季度净利润不低于2.5亿元。公告表示，业绩增 长主要原因是公司迎合市场上升需求，全力赶产，黄金产量较去年同期显著增加，同时公司整体营运效 率也在持续提升，进一步强化了成本控制措施，并得益于黄金价格在同期的上涨。 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the emergence of various acronyms in financial markets that reflect the volatility and uncertainty since Donald Trump's return to the presidency, with strategies linked to his economic and trade policies [1][2][3] - Acronyms like MAGA (Make America Great Again) and YOLO (You Only Live Once) were popular during the initial phase of Trump's presidency, driving significant market movements, but have since lost favor due to concerns over economic policies and market stability [2][3] - The TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) strategy has gained traction among traders, betting on Trump's tendency to backtrack on aggressive policies, leading to market rebounds after initial declines [3][4] Group 2 - MEGA (Make Europe Great Again) has resurfaced as European markets outperform U.S. markets, driven by increased interest in European equities and military spending in response to U.S. policies [5][6] - The MAGA variant, "Make America Go Away," reflects a growing sentiment among foreign investors to avoid U.S. markets due to concerns over inflation and the erosion of confidence in U.S. assets [6][7] - FAFO (Fuck Around and Find Out) describes the chaotic market conditions resulting from Trump's policy decisions, highlighting the risks of frequent trading in response to market volatility [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the mild increase in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which rose by only 0.1% for the month, resulting in an annual inflation rate of 2.1%, aligning with Dow Jones' previous forecast but 0.1 percentage points lower than the estimated annual inflation rate [3] - The core PCE price index, excluding food and energy, showed stable monthly and annual growth rates of 0.1% and 2.5% respectively, slightly below market expectations of 0.1% and 2.6%, indicating a further easing of inflationary pressures [3] - Economists express concerns about potential inflation risks triggered by tariffs, despite historical evidence suggesting limited direct impact of tariffs on inflation [3] Group 2 - The bond market reflects complex sentiments regarding long-term economic prospects, with the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield adjusting by 0.2 basis points to 3.937%, the 10-year yield nearly unchanged at 4.416%, and the 30-year yield rising by 0.6 basis points to 4.929% [3] - The gold futures market is currently showing a bullish trend, with prices trading around 771.80 yuan per gram, up by 0.98%, and reaching a high of 776.16 yuan per gram [1]

Core Points - The article discusses the impact of tariff uncertainties on the market, highlighting a slight increase in the US dollar and mixed performance in European stock indices [1][5] - A legal challenge to Trump's tariff agenda has been reported, with a US appellate court reinstating the tariff policy, providing the Trump administration with some relief [1][2] - Concerns about "stagflation and tariffs" are causing a decline in market risk appetite [1][2] Market Performance - European stock indices opened mixed, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.02%, while the German DAX rose 0.1% and the UK FTSE 100 increased by 0.24% [3][5] - The 10-year US Treasury yield remained stable at 4.41% [4][5] - The S&P 500 futures showed little change, while the Nasdaq 100 futures fell by 0.1% [5] Currency and Commodity Movements - The US dollar index increased by 0.21% to 99.54 points, while the euro fell by 0.2% against the dollar to 1.1349 [5][8] - Gold prices decreased by 0.5% to $3,295.62 per ounce, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell by 0.2% to $60.79 per barrel [5]

Macroeconomic Impact - The Manhattan International Trade Court ruled that Trump's comprehensive tariffs on trade surplus countries were "overreaching" and postponed their implementation, despite the White House's intention to appeal and utilize other legal tools, resulting in a threefold economic impact [1] - U.S. companies have incurred losses exceeding $34 billion due to tariffs, leading to a significant drop in CEO confidence index [1] - The global response from trade partners has varied, with Canada affirming the illegality of the tariffs, while the UK and EU remain cautious, and Japan and India continue negotiations with the U.S. [1] - The Asian stock market initially rose but then returned to previous levels, with the dollar index falling by 0.5% and gold becoming the preferred safe-haven asset [1] - The U.S. job market is under pressure, with initial jobless claims exceeding expectations, and corporate profits plummeting, leading to an economic state described as "stagflation" [1] - The market is betting on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to support growth, which, along with Trump's trade policies, is influencing the gold market [1] Dollar Index Performance - On Thursday, the dollar index experienced a significant decline, reaching a high of 100.521 and a low of 99.189, ultimately closing at 99.331 [2] - The market showed volatility, with prices testing resistance levels but failing to maintain upward momentum, leading to a bearish closing [2] - The weekly resistance level is noted at 101.70, indicating a potential bearish trend in the medium term [2] Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices showed an overall upward trend on Thursday, with a high of 3330 and a low of 3245, closing at 3317 [4] - The price initially declined but rebounded after testing a 50% retracement level, indicating potential strength if it breaks above the early high [4] - Key support levels for gold are identified at 3278 and 3295, which will determine short-term strength [5][7] Euro/USD Performance - The Euro/USD pair showed an upward trend on Thursday, with a low of 1.1210 and a high of 1.1384, closing at 1.1365 [7] - The market experienced a brief decline before recovering, indicating potential for continued upward movement if it maintains above key support levels [8] - Long-term bullish sentiment is supported by a monthly support level at 1.0800, with short-term focus on the 1.1310-20 support range [8][10]

关税政策已在美国国内引发广泛反弹。企业层面，12 个州联合起诉特朗普政府，指控其关税政策 "颠覆宪法秩序"。纽约州总检察长利蒂希娅・詹姆斯直 言："总统没有权力随心所欲地提高税收"。美国消费者技术协会警告，若关税持续，2025 年该行业购买力将下降 900 亿至 1430 亿美元，笔记本电脑、智能 手机等产品销量可能暴跌 37%-68%。汽车行业首当其冲：斯泰兰蒂斯集团因关税成本暂停北美工厂生产，解雇 900 名工人。 民生层面，关税直接推高物价。耶鲁大学预算实验室研究显示，特朗普的关税政策使 2025 年美国通胀率上升 2.3%，每个家庭年均损失 3800 美元，皮革、 外套等商品价格涨幅超 15%。密歇根大学消费者信心指数从年初的 64.7 暴跌至 5 月的 50.8，创 2020 年以来新低，显示民众对经济前景的悲观情绪加剧。沃 尔玛首席执行官道格・麦克米利恩指出，消费者已出现 "月底前钱花光" 的现象，被迫转向廉价品牌。 政治层面，国会内部裂痕扩大。共和党参议员查克・格拉斯利联合民主党提出《2025 贸易审查法案》，要求总统加征关税需国会批准，并在 60 天后自动失 效。尽管特朗普威胁否决该法案，但已 ...

美联储古尔斯比：这是一个通往滞胀的方向，但还不算滞胀。 ...

美联储古尔斯比：对央行来说，滞胀是最棘手的情况；但这不是我们现在面临的。 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-5-29 美联储态度审慎，⾦价承压 价格逻辑： 黄金价格周三北美时段延续跌势，跌破3,300美元关键心理位，主因 美联储会议纪要释放滞胀风险信号，推动美债收益率反弹并提振美 元。尽管美联储维持利率不变，但政策制定者对关税推升通胀及就业 增长放缓的担忧加剧，暗示货币政策将保持谨慎。同时，地缘政治冲 突（俄乌、中东局势）虽支撑避险需求，但美国消费者信心数据超预 期改善，叠加美债收益率回升至4.493%，削弱了黄金吸引力。 美联储5月会议纪要显示，官员因关税对经济的不确定性及潜在" 滞胀"压力（高通胀与弱增长并存）而选择观望，强调需等待政府政 策调整效果明朗。值得注意的是，此次会议早于特朗普政府将对华关 税从145%降至30%的决定。经济数据方面，美国10年期实际收益率升 至2.171%，美元指数上涨0.33%至99.89，进一步施压金价。此外， 瑞士4月自美黄金进口创2012年以来新高，中国香港4月黄金净进口同 比翻倍。市场预计美联储年内或降息45个基点，但当前强劲数据与政 策谨慎基调令短期金价承压。 展望：周度COMEX黄金 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. stock index reached a three-month high, limiting interest in safe-haven metals, with gold prices fluctuating and ultimately rising above $3,300 per ounce [1] - The latest spot gold price is reported at $3,312.69 per ounce, reflecting a 0.79% increase, while COMEX gold futures for August are at $3,325.90, up by $3.50 [1] - COMEX silver futures for July are priced at $33.475, showing an increase of $0.315, indicating a positive risk appetite among traders and investors [1] Group 2 - The U.S. International Trade Court ruled against Trump's tariffs, which could disrupt his trade agenda and affect negotiations with other countries [2] - The Trump administration has filed an appeal, and the outcome could lead to significant market volatility [2] - The White House National Economic Council Director expressed confidence that the tariff ruling will be overturned, suggesting multiple options for the Trump administration regarding tariffs [2] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes indicate that a rate cut is unlikely in the near term, with concerns about stagflation rising due to slowing economic growth and rising inflation [3] - The U.S. dollar index has slightly increased, and WTI crude oil prices are around $62.00 per barrel, while the 10-year Treasury yield stands at 4.55% [3] - Economic data shows a contraction in GDP by 0.2% in Q1, with consumer spending growth at only 1.2%, below initial estimates [3] Group 4 - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose to 240,000, exceeding expectations, suggesting a potential increase in the unemployment rate [4] - The Federal Reserve's minutes indicate a balanced labor market but highlight risks of weakening in the coming months, largely dependent on trade policies [4] Group 5 - COMEX gold futures for August maintain a short-term technical advantage for bulls, with the next target above the strong resistance level of $3,400 [5] - The first resistance level is at $3,352, followed by $3,375, while the first support level is at $3,300 [5] Group 6 - COMEX silver futures for July show a slight technical advantage for bulls, with the next target above the strong resistance level of $34.015 [6] - The first resistance level is at $33.75, followed by $34.015, while the next support level is at $33.00 [6]