【黄金期货最新行情】 SPDR黄金信托（GLD）报告：截至8月20日持仓量下降0.42%（即4.01吨），至958.20吨。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【机构观点】 【基本面消息】 数据显示，8月21日上海黄金现货价格报价773.25元/克，相较于期货主力价格（775.12元/克）贴水1.87 元/克。 凌晨美联储公布的7月会议纪要显示，7月会上，几乎全体决策者支持暂不降息，只有两人反对。纪要体 现了，对通胀和就业的风险以及关税对通胀的影响，联储官员均存在分歧，不过多数还是认为，通胀上 升的风险比就业下行的风险高。多人认为，关税的影响需要一些时间才会全面显现。与会者指出，在 《GENIUS法案》通过之后，稳定币的使用可能会增加，并可能有助于提升支付系统的效率。他们还表 示，稳定币可能会推高对其支撑资产的需求，其中包括美国国债。 美国总统特朗普喊话美联储理事库克，称其必须立即辞职，从而进一步加大对美联储的施压力度。此 前，美国联邦住房金融局（FHFA）局长普尔特指控库克在两笔抵押贷款中存在欺诈行为，并呼吁司法 部对其展开调查。普尔特称，这些指控让特朗普有了解雇库克的理由。 | 8月21日 | 收盘价（元 ...

美国货币供应量M2已重回疫情期间峰值水平，同时多项通胀指标显示价格压力正在重新积聚，引发市场对通胀"第二波"的担忧。 经济学家警告称， 在当前货币环境下进一步宽松政策可能重演1970年代三轮通胀浪潮的历史悲剧。 最新数据显示，美国生产者价格指数(PPI)升至3.3%的高位，而货币供应量M2的增长率正趋向5%的危险水平。 这一组合令人回想起1970年代的通胀周期 ，当时央行在通胀初步回落后过早放松政策，最终引发了更为严重的第二轮和第三轮通胀冲击。 分析师指出，虽然消费者价格指数(CPI)暂时保持相对稳定，但批发价格的上涨通常会传导至零售端，而货币供应量的快速增长为未来通胀提供了充足"燃料"。 当前形势下， 美联储主席鲍威尔对降息的延缓可能是明智之举。 经济学家担心，如果政策制定者重复1970年代的错误——在通胀尚未完全消除时就急于刺激经济——美国可能面临比过去五年更为严重的价格冲击。 货币供应重返高位，敲响通胀警钟 当前对通胀风险的评估，一个关键变量是M2货币供应量。数据显示，在2020年新冠疫情期间，美联储实施零利率并大幅扩张货币供应，导致M2创下历史性增 幅。随后，美联储通过加息等紧缩政策从系统中回笼了部分 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicate a divergence among policymakers regarding inflation, employment, and the impact of tariffs, with a prevailing concern that inflation risks outweigh employment risks [1][2][4]. Economic Outlook - Some participants expect the U.S. economic activity to remain robust, while others predict a continuation of low growth in the second half of the year [3]. - There is a consensus among Fed officials to monitor vulnerabilities in financial markets, particularly concerning the U.S. Treasury market and the implications of recent stablecoin legislation [3][18]. Inflation Risks - A majority of participants believe that inflation risks are greater than employment risks, while a couple of participants view employment risks as more pronounced [4][5]. - Concerns regarding tariffs include their uncertain impact on inflation and the potential for inflation expectations to become unstable [5][6]. Tariff Impact - Many participants noted that the full effects of tariff increases may take time to manifest in consumer prices [9][11]. - Some participants indicated that current demand conditions limit the ability of businesses to pass on tariff costs to prices [12]. - There is a belief that the increase in tariffs may lead to a one-time price increase, but factors like supply chain disruptions could cause persistent inflation [13][14]. Monetary Policy Considerations - Almost all participants agree that the current monetary policy is capable of responding to potential economic developments, with the understanding that the impact of tariffs on inflation remains to be fully observed [15][17]. - Some participants emphasized that the current federal funds rate target range may not be significantly above neutral levels, suggesting a balanced approach to monetary policy [17]. Financial Stability Concerns - Participants expressed concerns about vulnerabilities in the financial system, particularly regarding high asset valuations and the fragility of the U.S. Treasury market [18]. - The discussion on stablecoins highlighted their potential to enhance payment system efficiency and increase demand for supporting assets, including U.S. Treasuries [19].

Economic Data Summary - In the first seven months of the year, China's total social financing increased by 23.99 trillion yuan, which is 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan. As of the end of July, M2 grew by 8.8% year-on-year, M1 by 5.6%, and the stock of social financing increased by 9% [1] - In July, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises in China grew by 5.7% year-on-year, while retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year. From January to July, fixed asset investment grew by 1.6% year-on-year, with real estate development investment declining by 12% [1] - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July remained flat at 2.7% year-on-year, below the expected 2.8%, while the core CPI rose by 3.1%, exceeding expectations and reaching the highest level since February [2] Monetary Policy and Market Operations - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 500 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on August 15, with a six-month term. This, combined with a previous operation, resulted in a total of 300 billion yuan in mid-term liquidity injection for the month [2] - The PBOC's second-quarter monetary policy report emphasized the need for a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on maintaining ample liquidity and supporting sectors such as technology innovation and small enterprises [3] Trade and Tariff Developments - The U.S. and China agreed to suspend the implementation of additional tariffs for 90 days starting August 12, with the U.S. committing to adjust tariffs on Chinese goods [3] - U.S. Treasury Secretary clarified that he did not intend to pressure the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, despite previous comments suggesting a potential series of rate cuts [3] Industry Performance - In the real estate sector, land transaction area decreased, leading to a drop in transaction prices for commercial housing and a weakening of second-hand housing prices [8] - The automotive sector maintained high sales levels, with wholesale and retail sales growth rates of 12.08% and 6.10% year-on-year, respectively [9] Market Trends - The A-share market saw a rise, with the ChiNext Index increasing by 8.58%, driven by positive inflation data and the suspension of tariffs between the U.S. and China [21] - In the bond market, credit bond rates increased, while government bond rates showed a mixed trend, reflecting market risk preferences and economic data pressures [31][33] Commodity Prices - Agricultural product prices saw a rebound, with vegetable prices rising and fruit prices declining. Pork prices fell to 20.05 yuan [14] - Industrial product prices showed mixed trends, with coal, copper, aluminum, and steel prices rising, while oil and cement prices fell [16]

今年夏天在国会作证前几分钟，美联储主席鲍威尔独自坐在木镶板会议厅里，直视前方，似乎陷入沉 思。 鲍威尔后来告诉一位同僚，他当时感觉陷入僵局，已准备好回应关于美联储核心职责的问题，即维持低 通胀和充分就业。鲍威尔看起来已经做好了接受批评的准备，而他并没有等太久。 美国总统特朗普的共和党盟友、俄亥俄州参议员伯尼·莫雷诺（Bernie Moreno）在听证开始一小时后， 展开了一场夸张的抨击。他指责鲍威尔将特朗普关税与物价上涨、经济放缓关联的言论存在党派偏见。 "实际上，我根本不评论关税，"鲍威尔说，"我只评论通胀。" 莫雷诺无视他的话，称通胀正在下降，呼应了特朗普的说法。这位美国总统要求立即降息，并因鲍威尔 不配合而贬低其诚信与智力，称他是"笨蛋""蠢货"。而正是特朗普本人2017年曾提名鲍威尔担任这一职 务。 莫雷诺在发言时间结束时说，"我们是被数百万选民选出来的，你是被一个人选出来的，而他现在不希 望你在这个位置上。"鲍威尔闻言挑了挑眉，关掉麦克风，转向下一位参议员的提问。 对这位美联储主席来说，这只是普通的一天。他每天醒来都处于批评者的围攻之下，以特朗普为首的批 评者称通胀已得到控制，经济已准备好迎接降息。 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: August 21, 2025 - Report Type: Freight Index (European Line) Futures Daily Report Key Data Futures Market - EC2510 (Main Contract) Closing Price: 1325.00, down 33.8 [1] - EC2512 Closing Price: 1721.4, down 48.2 [1] - EC2510-EC2512 Spread: -420.90, up 0.00 [1] - EC2510-EC2602 Spread: -177.00, up 0.00 [1] - EC Contract Basis: 825.17, up 0.00 [1] - EC Main Contract Open Interest: 54,293, up 2,566 [1] Spot Market - SCFIS (European Line) (Weekly): 2180.17, down 55.31 [1] - SCFIS (US West Coast Line) (Weekly): 1106.29, down 24.15 [1] - SCFI (Composite Index) (Weekly): 1460.19, down 29.49 [1] - CCFI (Composite Index) (Weekly): 1193.34, down 7.39 [1] - CCFI (European Line) (Weekly): 1790.47, down 8.58 [1] - Baltic Dry Index (Daily): 1927.00, up 37.00 [1] - Panamax Freight Index (Daily): 1665.00, down 28.00 [1] - Average Charter Price (Panamax Vessel): 13789.00, down 98.00 [1] - Average Charter Price (Cape Vessel): 21200.00, down 786.00 [1] Core View - On Thursday, the freight index (European line) futures prices fell collectively, with the main contract EC2510 down 2.49% and the far-month contracts down 1-3% [1] - The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index was 2180.17, down 55.31 points from last week, a 2.5% week-on-week decline [1] - The top shipping companies launched a "price war" to compete for off-season cargo volume, and the market expectation turned cold [1] - US President Trump's plan to impose tariffs on steel, chips, and semiconductors increased the uncertainty of global trade [1] - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September decreased marginally, while the ECB had more flexibility in its interest rate policy [1] - Overall, the uncertainty of the trade war remained, the demand expectation of the freight index (European line) was weak, and the futures price fluctuated greatly [1] Industry News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that almost all policymakers supported not cutting interest rates, and there were differences among Fed officials on inflation, employment risks, and the impact of tariffs on inflation [1] - US President Trump called on Fed Governor Cook to resign, and the FHFA Director accused Cook of mortgage fraud [1] - ECB President Lagarde said that the eurozone's economic growth might slow down this quarter, and the global trade situation remained unclear [1] - The Indonesian central bank unexpectedly cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 5% for the fourth time this year [1] Upcoming Data Releases - UK August Gfk Consumer Confidence Index on August 22 at 07:01 [1] - Japan July Core CPI Annual Rate on August 22 at 07:30 [1] - Germany Second Quarter Unadjusted GDP Annual Rate Final Value on August 22 at 14:00 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Shanghai gold and silver main contracts closed slightly higher, maintaining a narrow - range oscillation during the session. Trump pressured Fed officials again, which may marginally affect the US dollar's credit and support the safe - haven demand for gold. The precious metals market was pressured by the spill - over effect of steel and aluminum tariffs, mainly driven by market sentiment. The market is currently focused on the cease - fire expectation between Russia and Ukraine and the expected trading around the Fed's interest - rate cut at the Jackson Hole meeting on Friday. If Powell further releases hawkish signals, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields may continue to rebound, putting pressure on the upward movement of gold prices. In the short term, if there is no significant progress in the geopolitical situation, the precious metals market is expected to continue to oscillate within a range. In the medium term, interest - rate cuts will provide strong bottom support for gold prices. If the Russia - Ukraine negotiations make substantial progress, it may further release the callback pressure on gold prices; otherwise, it may increase the demand for safe - haven buying. Operationally, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for gold in the short term and focus on short - term rebound trading opportunities for silver. The focus range for the Shanghai gold 2510 contract is 770 - 800 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai silver 2510 contract is 9000 - 9200 yuan/kilogram [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Shanghai gold main contract closing price (daily, yuan/gram): 775.12, up 2.44; Shanghai silver main contract closing price (daily, yuan/kilogram): 9162, up 120 - Main contract positions: Shanghai gold (daily, lots): 183215, down 8259; Shanghai silver (daily, lots): 307098, down 11580 - Net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract (daily, lots): 162201, up 1447; Net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai silver main contract (daily, lots): 116447, up 2105 - Warehouse receipt quantity: Gold (daily, kilograms): 36642, up 60; Silver (daily, kilograms): 1115055, down 25144 [3] 3.2 Spot Market - Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network gold spot price (daily, yuan/gram): 773.25, up 4.55; Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network silver spot price (daily, yuan/kilogram): 9143, up 117 - Basis of Shanghai gold main contract (daily, yuan/gram): - 1.87, up 2.11; Basis of Shanghai silver main contract (daily, yuan/kilogram): - 19, down 3 [3] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - Gold ETF holdings (daily, tons): 962.21, down 3.15; Silver ETF holdings (daily, tons): 15339.66, down 16.94 - Gold CFTC non - commercial net positions (weekly, contracts): 229485, down 7565; Silver CTFC non - commercial net positions (weekly, contracts): 44268, down 6390 - Total gold supply (quarterly, tons): 1313.01, up 54.84; Total silver supply (annually, million troy ounces): 987.8, down 21.4 - Total gold demand (quarterly, tons): 1313.01, up 54.83; Total global silver demand (annually, million ounces): 1195, down 47.4 [3] 3.4 Option Market - Historical volatility: 20 - day for gold (daily, %): 10.17, down 0.53; 40 - day for gold (daily, %): 10.6, up 0.12 - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold (daily, %): 16.54, down 0.82; Implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold (daily, %): 16.55, down 0.81 [3] 3.5 Industry News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that almost all policymakers supported not cutting interest rates in July, with only two opposing. There were differences among Fed officials regarding inflation, employment risks, and the impact of tariffs on inflation, but most believed the risk of rising inflation was higher than the risk of falling employment. - US President Trump called on Fed Governor Cook to resign immediately, increasing pressure on the Fed. The FHFA Director Pult accused Cook of fraud in two mortgages and called on the Justice Department to investigate. - The CRFB's latest forecast showed that due to tax, spending legislation, and tariff policies, the US federal budget deficit will reach $22.7 trillion in the next decade, nearly $1 trillion higher than the CBO's January forecast. - ECB President Lagarde said that the euro - zone economic growth may slow down this quarter. Although the recent agreement with the US reduced uncertainty, the global trade situation remains unclear [3]

来源：市场资讯 8月21日，英国7月通胀率升至3.8%，创18个月新高，服务业通胀也高于央行预测，数据进一步削弱了 市场对央行近期降息的预期。据英国国家统计局周三公布的数据，7月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上 涨3.8%，高于6月的3.6%，为2024年1月以来最快增速。航空票价、酒店和汽车燃料价格上涨是推动通 胀加速的主要因素。细分项目中，食品通胀从上月的4.5%加速至4.9%，创2024年2月以来新高。数据暗 示，企业正在将税收和最低工资上调所带来的数十亿英镑额外成本转嫁给消费者。服务业通胀这一衡量 潜在价格压力的关键指标则升至5%，超过英国央行4.9%的预测。该数据尤其令政策制定者担忧，因为 这反映了英国国内价格压力的持续性。 另外，当地时间周三，美联储7月份会议纪要显示，在上月决定维持基准利率不变的会议上，仅有两位 官员（主张降息）投下反对票，并未获得其他同僚的公开声援。纪要写道："几乎所有与会者都认为， 在本次会议上将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%-4.50%是合适的。"美联储副主席鲍曼与理事沃勒则 主张立即降息25个基点，以防范劳动力市场进一步恶化。这是自1993年以来，首次有多位美联储理事 ...

瑞银：目前“关税不会引发通胀”的结论为时过早 https://t.co/UkGx9ec0niNone (@None):None ...

·T. Rowe Price：鲍威尔可能在杰克逊霍尔会议上保持中立 ·PGIM：鲍威尔可能暗示将采取更渐进的方式降息 ·贝莱德建议投资者向对冲基金投入更多资金 ·联昌国际银行：印尼央行可能在第四季度再降息25个基点 ·联昌国际银行（CIMB）经济学家表示，印尼央行可能会在第四季度再降息25个基点，将政策利率降至 4.75%。如果新的关税措施或更疲弱的财政与增长表现拖累经济，2026年可能会进一步宽松。由于第二 季度GDP强于预期，印尼央行将2025年增长预期上调至4.6%-5.4%区间中值以上，并表示下半年增长将 受政府支出和重点项目支持。CIMB指出，这一积极指引意味着最新的降息不太可能标志着持续宽松周 期的开始。展望未来，CIMB预计，印尼央行将在信贷疲弱和贷款增长放缓的背景下，采取数据依赖型 策略，同时改善货币政策传导。 ·巴克莱：印度央行今年可能再次降息 ·巴克莱经济学家指出，印度央行今年10月可能会再次降息25个基点。他们说，较低的通胀率和关税悬 而未决的情况为再次降息打开了大门。印度央行在本月暂停了宽松周期，这是在不确定性加剧的情况下 的审慎之举。贸易风险的发展将决定政策空间，并指引印度央行在即将 ...