Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [4] Core Viewpoints - In July 2025, the top 100 real estate companies achieved a sales turnover of 211.16 billion yuan, a month-on-month decrease of 37.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 24.3% [1][9] - The cumulative sales turnover for the first seven months of 2025 was 1,863.84 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 12.5% [1][9] - The sales performance shows a divergence trend, with the top 10 companies experiencing a year-on-year change of -14.4%, while companies ranked 31-50 saw a decline of -47.1% [10][11] - The report indicates that the weak sales growth in July is attributed to seasonal factors, the pace of inventory release by developers, and a cautious demand awaiting policy changes [11] Summary by Sections Sales Performance Overview - In July 2025, the top 100 real estate companies' sales decreased by 40.3% month-on-month and 24.6% year-on-year [1][9] - The sales performance of state-owned enterprises, local state-owned enterprises, and private enterprises showed year-on-year changes of -24.2%, -34.7%, and -32.0% respectively [10] - The sales figures for companies in default and those not in default were -45.5% and -27.8% year-on-year [10] Market Dynamics - The new housing market saw a transaction volume of 2.31 million square meters in the week of July 26 to August 1, with a year-on-year decline of 19.93% [2][17] - The second-hand housing market recorded a transaction volume of 1.63 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 5.37% [2][24] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on non-state-owned enterprises benefiting from debt relief and policy support, as well as leading companies with product advantages [13][14] - Specific companies to watch include Longfor Group, Gemdale Corporation, and New Town Holdings among non-state-owned enterprises, and China Overseas Development and China Resources Land among state-owned enterprises [14]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is positive, indicating a favorable outlook for the sector [1][22]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes optimism for the steel industry during the peak seasons of September and October, suggesting that the current price declines should not deter investment [1]. - The report highlights that the overall inventory levels for major steel products have shown a slight increase, which may impact future pricing dynamics [4]. - The report notes that the average daily production of molten iron is projected to remain stable, indicating a balanced supply-demand scenario [8]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - The SW Steel Index has decreased by 2.2% week-on-week but has increased by 16.4% year-to-date [3]. - The price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) is currently at 3,350 CNY per ton, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 2.9% and a year-to-date decrease of 1.8% [3]. Inventory Levels - The total social inventory of the five major steel products stands at 941,000 tons, with a year-to-date increase of 2% [4]. - The total inventory at steel mills is reported at 410,000 tons, which has increased by 16.9% year-to-date [4]. Supply and Demand - The report indicates that the average daily production of major steel products is expected to remain consistent, supporting stable market conditions [8]. - The report also mentions that the iron ore price index is currently at 99 USD per ton, down by 3.5% week-on-week [3].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the polyolefin industry. 2. Core View In August, with the improvement of both the macro - economic and fundamental aspects, polyolefins are expected to perform strongly [4]. 3. Summary by Section Macro - economic Analysis - **China**: In late June 2025, the broad money (M2) balance was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. In June, the CPI rose 0.1% year - on - year and fell 0.1% month - on - month, while the PPI fell 3.6% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month. From January to June, real estate investment, sales area, and sales volume all declined. With the implementation of relevant policies, the domestic macro - economic outlook is positive [6][8][11]. - **International**: In June 2025, the US CPI rose 0.3 percentage points to 2.7%, and the Eurozone's CPI in April rose 0.1 percentage points to 2%. The US economy remains resilient, and its major trading partners have reached trade agreements with it. After the stabilization of US tariffs, the inflation expectation will improve, and the Fed is likely to cut interest rates, bringing substantial benefits to the international macro - economy [13][17][20]. Fundamental Analysis - **PE**: In July, domestic PE production increased, with the output reaching 272.64 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.48%. The downstream demand decreased, with the average starting rate of downstream industries at 38.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4%. The social sample warehouse inventory rose to 56.17 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.77% [22][25][26]. - **PP**: In July, the supply of PP increased, with a total output of 342.50 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.53%. The downstream was in the off - season, with the average starting rate of plastic - weaving sample enterprises at 41.58%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.39 percentage points. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 3.45% month - on - month, while the trader inventory increased by 28.28% month - on - month [30][32][35]. Market Outlook - **PE**: In August, the domestic PE output is expected to be 272.71 million tons, basically the same as in July. The downstream demand is expected to improve, with the overall average starting rate of downstream industries increasing by 2% to 40.3%. The agricultural film industry is expected to enter the reserve stage, and the starting rate is expected to increase by about 5.5%. The average starting rate of PE packaging film is expected to increase by 2.5% [41]. - **PP**: In August, the planned maintenance loss is expected to be 54.996 million tons, and the output is expected to increase by 4.58% to 358.20 million tons. The downstream consumption is at the critical stage of transition from the off - season to the peak season, and there is a chance of improvement in overseas orders [42].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significance of September and October as a critical period for investors, referred to as the "golden period" for policy and capital resonance, where market activity peaks and investment opportunities arise [1]. Summary by Sections Event and Promotion - The "Financial Association Member Month" event runs from August 1 to August 31, 2025, featuring ten proprietary products including "Market Insights" and "Windfall Research," aimed at helping investors decode market trends at significant discounts [1]. Subscription Discounts - During the event, subscriptions for 1-month and 3-month Financial Association VIP information are available at a limited-time 15% discount, while 6-month and 12-month subscriptions are offered at a 20% discount, with potential savings of up to 2,778 yuan [3]. VIP Information Features - The VIP section of the Financial Association is designed to provide high-quality insights, supported by exclusive reports and data from various brokers and public-private investment institutions, making it a popular choice among investors [4]. Product Categories - The article outlines various product categories under the VIP section, including: - **Market Insights**: Real-time market updates and analysis [5]. - **Windfall Research**: In-depth reports on significant events and industry trends [5]. - **Event Analysis**: Quick assessments of market-moving news and policies [5]. - **Expert Meetings**: Regular discussions with industry experts to interpret policy and market changes [6]. Subscription Pricing - Detailed pricing for various VIP products is provided, with original and discounted prices for 1-month, 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month subscriptions across different services, highlighting significant savings opportunities [7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19]. Customer Engagement - The article encourages potential subscribers to engage with customer service for inquiries about membership activities and specific benefits, indicating a focus on customer support and satisfaction [20][21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX - PTA supply tightness supports the market, but the differentiated inventory structure restricts the increase [1] - The short - term industrial chain enters an oscillatory adjustment period, and the long - and short - term factors in the polyester market may restrict the upward space [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 PTA & PX - On July 29, the PX main contract closed at 6942.0 yuan/ton, up 0.75% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 97.0 yuan/ton; the PTA main contract closed at 4838.0 yuan/ton, up 0.54%, with a basis of 2.0 yuan/ton [2] - On July 30, WTI closed at 69.25 US dollars/barrel. The PX supply is under short - term tightening pressure, and PTA supply faces dual pressures of high operating rate and plant restart. Downstream polyester demand shows a marginal weakening risk, and PTA continues a slight destocking trend but the pressure remains [3] 3.1.2 Polyester - On July 29, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6500.0 yuan/ton, up 0.28%. The spot price in the East China market was 6605.0 yuan/ton, down 5.0 yuan/ton, with a basis of 105.0 yuan/ton [4] - The cost - side support of polyester is loosening, terminal procurement power is weakening, and the inventory is significantly differentiated. The short - term industrial chain is expected to enter an oscillatory adjustment period [4] 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On July 30, compared with July 29, the prices of PX, PTA, short - fiber futures and spot, and some other products changed to varying degrees, and the trading volume and open interest of futures contracts also had corresponding changes [5] - The processing spreads of various products in the industrial chain and the trading volume of the Light Textile City also showed specific data changes [6] 3.3 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Macroeconomic Dynamics - On July 30, a Fed governor was absent from the interest - rate meeting, and the number of voting members temporarily decreased to 11. The "Fed whisperer" said the Fed would eventually need to continue cutting interest rates but was not ready to do so this week [7] - On July 29, Trump thought the Fed must cut interest rates this week [7] 3.3.2 Supply - Demand (Demand) - On July 29, the total trading volume of the Light Textile City was 446.0 million meters, a month - on - month decrease of 7.85%, including 357.0 million meters of long - fiber fabric trading volume and 87.0 million meters of short - fiber fabric trading volume [8] 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts related to the PX, PTA, and polyester industrial chains, including futures prices, basis, spot prices, capacity utilization rates, etc [9][11][13] 3.5 Appendix: Big - Model Inference Process - The analysis is carried out from the supply, demand, and inventory sides. The supply side considers the device start - up rate and device changes of PX and PTA; the demand side focuses on the polyester operating rate and the trading volume of the Light Textile City; the inventory side pays attention to the PTA factory inventory [34][35][36] - Overall, PX may be supported by crude oil, and PTA may be supported by cost and demand. If the inventory is low, the price may rise [39]

Core Insights - The main futures contract for iron ore has reached a nearly two-week low, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [1] - The inventory of five major steel products has ended a four-week declining trend, suggesting a change in supply and demand balance [1] - Steel mills' willingness to replenish inventory is decreasing, raising questions about the upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" period for the black futures market [1] Group 1 - The iron ore main contract has hit a new low, reflecting market pressures [1] - The five major steel product inventories have reversed their downward trend, which could impact pricing and production strategies [1] - There is a notable decline in steel mills' inventory replenishment intentions, which may affect future market stability [1]

目前国内聚丙烯行业仍在继续扩能中，大榭石化PP装置二期一线（45万吨）预计7月底8月初投产，二 期二线（45万吨）预计8月底投产。二期一线产能预计在8月份平稳释放对市场供应冲击力度较大。 新产能逐渐释放冲击现货供应的同时，8月份存量装置检修力度也将减弱。据卓创资讯统计，8月份镇海 炼化1PP、山东京博二线以及延长中煤榆林1PP和2PP等多套停车预计重启，PP国产量预计进一步增长。 据估算，2025年8月国内PP产量在342.8万吨，环比7月增长1.46%，同比去年8月份增长14.34%。 进口市场来看，内外盘长期倒挂下，海外供应商对华报盘热情不足，8月进口规模或将萎缩。综合来 看，在PP国产量持续增长下，前端现货供应随之加剧，PP市场来自供应端的驱动力度趋弱。 7月国内聚丙烯市场在供需、成本双弱拖累下整体震荡下行。8月份来看，在部分检修装置复产和新产能 释放下，PP供应端压力预计增长。但需求端，PP下游领域逐渐走出季节性淡季，下游需求有望好转。 同时煤炭、甲醇预计偏暖对PP市场形成支撑。综合分析，预计8月PP市场价格重心料将有所抬升。 具体来看，7月PP下游领域仍处传统淡季，基本面表现不佳对PP市场驱动力度偏 ...

Core Viewpoint - The methanol futures market has shown relative weakness amidst overall industrial price increases, with a significant price drop observed following a cooling market sentiment [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - Methanol futures prices fell nearly 4% on July 28 and continued to decline by 0.33% recently, indicating a bearish trend [1] - Analysts suggest that the weak performance of methanol futures is due to a lack of strong upward drivers in its fundamentals, despite macroeconomic positive sentiments [1][2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Current methanol fundamentals exhibit three high characteristics: high supply elasticity, weak demand, and high inventory levels, with port inventories up 22% year-on-year [2] - Domestic production remains high, and increased imports are expected, particularly from Iran, which may see imports rise to 381,700 tons by the end of July [2] - The demand side is weak, with traditional downstream sectors facing losses and methanol procurement intentions being low due to reduced operating rates [1][2] Group 3: Future Outlook - Short-term expectations indicate continued supply pressure and weak demand, with port inventory accumulation likely to persist, leading to price correction risks [3] - Mid-term prospects may improve as the traditional demand season approaches in September, alongside potential maintenance increases and uncertainties in imports [3] - Analysts emphasize the need to monitor import schedules and the recovery progress of downstream ethylene production facilities [3]

Core Viewpoint - The methanol futures market has shown relative weakness amidst overall industrial price increases, with a significant price drop observed as market sentiment cooled down [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Methanol futures prices fell sharply, with a nearly 4% drop on July 28 and a further decline of 0.33% recently [1]. - Analysts indicate that the weak performance of methanol futures is due to a lack of strong upward drivers in its fundamentals, despite macroeconomic bullish sentiment [1][2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Current methanol fundamentals exhibit three high characteristics: high supply elasticity, weak demand, and high inventory levels, with port inventories up 22% year-on-year [2]. - Domestic production remains high, and there is an expectation of increased imports, particularly from Iran, which may reach 381,700 tons by the end of July [2]. - The demand side is challenged by traditional downstream sectors facing losses, with methanol production rates for formaldehyde at only 27.96% and low operating rates for MTO facilities [1][2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The methanol market is expected to experience short-term weakness and mid-term rebound, influenced by supply-demand structure, inventory changes, and external macro variables [3]. - Analysts suggest monitoring the pace of imports and the recovery of downstream ethylene facilities as key indicators for future price movements [3]. - The current situation shows that over 60% of downstream enterprises are in a loss-making state, which could impact future demand [4].

Group 1 - The Shenzhen real estate market achieved high transaction levels in the first half of the year, with a total of 51,099 residential units sold, including 21,868 new homes and 29,231 second-hand homes, reflecting year-on-year increases of 24.4% and 36.6% respectively [1][2] - The monthly trend showed a significant peak during the "golden three silver four" period, with second-hand home transactions rising to 6,078 and 5,733 units in March and April, respectively, before declining in May and June [1] - After March, the market heat in Shenzhen began to decline due to the release of demand and subsequent market adjustments, with expectations for a stronger market rebound in Q4 2024 [1] Group 2 - The second-hand housing market outperformed the new housing market in both transaction volume and year-on-year growth, indicating a lack of highly sought-after new developments [2] - The market is experiencing a clear polarization, with an increase in transactions for homes priced below 3 million yuan and above 10 million yuan, suggesting active demand from first-time buyers and a rise in housing improvement needs [2] - Looking ahead, the Shenzhen real estate market is expected to maintain a loose policy environment, with increased activity anticipated in the second half of the year due to traditional peak sales seasons [2]