Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to return to a range - bound pattern in the short term, with the M2509 contract oscillating between 2980 and 3040. The US soybean market is affected by factors such as weather and Sino - US tariff negotiations, and the domestic soybean meal market is influenced by import volume and inventory [8]. - The domestic soybean market is also expected to be range - bound, with the A2509 contract fluctuating between 4080 and 4180. It is affected by factors like South American soybean harvest, import volume, and domestic production expectations [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - The soybean meal M2509 is expected to oscillate between 2980 and 3040, and the soybean A2509 is expected to oscillate between 4080 and 4180 [8][10]. 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiation progress is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean planting weather is relatively good recently, and the short - term US market has oscillated downward, expected to oscillate around the 1000 - point mark [12]. - The domestic import soybean arrival volume remained high in July, the oil mill soybean meal inventory continued to rise, and the soybean meal market returned to an oscillating pattern [12]. - The reduction in domestic pig breeding profit has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The recent increase in soybean meal demand supports the price expectation, and the uncertainty in Sino - US trade negotiations has led the soybean meal market to return to a range - bound pattern [12]. - The domestic oil mill soybean meal inventory continues to rise. There is still a possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean production area and uncertainties in the Sino - US tariff war, so the soybean meal market will maintain short - term oscillations [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low domestic oil mill soybean meal inventory, and uncertain US soybean production area weather [13]. - Bearish factors: high domestic import soybean arrival volume in July and the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest with a continuous expectation of South American soybean bumper harvest [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean market and the expectation of increased domestic soybean demand [14]. - Bearish factors: continuous expectation of Brazilian soybean bumper harvest and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: Provide data on harvest area, initial inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio from 2015 to 2024 for the global market and from 2015 to 2024 for the domestic market [31][32]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress**: Include the 2023/24 Argentina soybean planting and harvest progress, 2024 US soybean planting, growth, and harvest progress, 2024/25 Brazilian and Argentine soybean planting and harvest progress [33][34][38]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: Show data from January to July 2025, including harvest area, yield, production, ending inventory, old - crop exports, crushing, and Brazilian and Argentine soybean production [41]. - **Imported Soybean Arrival Volume**: The peak of imported soybean arrival volume was postponed to June, with an overall increase [44]. 5. Position Data - For soybean meal, the main long positions decreased, and funds flowed out, but it is still considered bullish [8]. - For soybeans, the main long positions increased, and funds flowed out, also considered bullish [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Bean Meal**: The U.S. soybean market is influenced by weather uncertainties and awaits the follow - up of China - U.S. tariff negotiations. Domestically, high soybean imports in July and weak spot prices suppress the bean meal market. It is expected to return to a range - bound pattern, with the M2509 contract oscillating between 3000 and 3060 [8]. - **Soybeans**: The U.S. soybean market has a bottom support due to weather uncertainties, but the high - yield South American soybeans and good U.S. planting weather limit its upside. Domestically, the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans over imports supports the bottom, while high import volumes and expected domestic soybean production increase limit the upside. The A2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 4080 and 4180 [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - **Bean Meal**: Fundamental analysis shows a neutral stance. The basis is at a discount, the inventory has increased, the price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the main long positions have decreased while funds have flowed in. It is expected to be range - bound [8]. - **Soybeans**: The fundamental view is neutral. The basis is at a premium, the inventory has slightly increased, the price is below the 20 - day moving average but heading up, and the main positions have shifted from short to long while funds have flowed out. The price is expected to face constraints on the upside [10]. 3.2 Recent News - The progress of China - U.S. tariff negotiations is short - term positive for U.S. soybeans. The U.S. soybean planting weather is relatively good recently, and the market is expected to oscillate around the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance [12]. - High domestic soybean imports in July, increasing bean meal inventory, and uncertainties in U.S. soybean weather and China - U.S. trade negotiations have led to a return to a range - bound pattern for bean meal [12]. - Reduced domestic pig - farming profits have led to low expectations for pig restocking. However, the recent increase in bean meal demand and uncertainties in China - U.S. trade negotiations have also contributed to the range - bound pattern [12]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bean Meal Bullish**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low domestic bean meal inventory, and uncertainties in U.S. soybean - growing weather [13]. - **Bean Meal Bearish**: High domestic soybean imports in July and the expected high - yield South American soybeans [13]. - **Soybean Bullish**: Cost support from imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - **Soybean Bearish**: Expected high - yield Brazilian soybeans and expected increase in domestic soybean production [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance**: Data from 2015 - 2024 shows changes in harvest area, production, consumption, and inventory, with the inventory - to - consumption ratio generally fluctuating [31]. - **Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance**: From 2015 - 2024, data on harvest area, production, imports, consumption, and inventory are presented, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio has also changed over time [32]. 3.5 Position Data - **Bean Meal Futures**: The futures price has rebounded from the bottom, the spot price has been relatively stable, and the high - level spot discount has narrowed [22]. - **Soybean and Bean Meal Warehouse Receipts**: Data from July 23 to August 4 shows changes in warehouse receipts for soybeans and bean meal [19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the polyester industry, particularly for polyester filament yarn, with expectations for improved profitability during the peak season [4][6][19]. Core Insights - The profitability of polyester filament yarn has shown signs of improvement since late July, following a period of weak demand due to export tariffs and seasonal factors [6][7]. - The report highlights that the current inventory pressure is primarily concentrated in the downstream textile sector, with downstream fabric inventory at a high of 30.57 days and filament raw material inventory at a low of 9.85 days [14][15]. - The upstream oil sector is experiencing rising oil prices, with Brent crude oil futures closing at $69.67 per barrel, reflecting a 1.8% increase week-on-week [23][24]. - The refining sector is seeing mixed results, with overseas refined oil crack spreads increasing, while olefin price spreads show variability [54][56]. Summary by Sections Polyester Sector - Polyester filament yarn profitability is gradually improving, with price spreads for POY, FDY, and DTY reaching 1211, 1516, and 1200 CNY/ton respectively as of August 1 [7][19]. - The overall operating rate for polyester filament yarn remains around 90%, while downstream textile enterprises are operating at a low of 50.4% [15][19]. Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices have increased, with a week-on-week rise of 1.8%, and WTI prices up by 3.33% [23][24]. - The report notes a decrease in the number of active drilling rigs in the U.S., with a total of 540 rigs as of August 1, down by 2 from the previous week [34]. Refining Sector - The report indicates that the Singapore refining margin for major products has increased to $15.48 per barrel, while domestic refining margins remain at lower levels [54][56]. - The report suggests that refining profitability may improve as economic recovery progresses, despite current low margins [54][56]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the polyester sector such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as well as high-quality refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Sinopec [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The market fundamentals of the container shipping index (European line) are expected to face further pressure, with a likely pattern of reduced supply and demand in September. The trading logic for the main 2510 contract remains to go short on rallies. The impact of the anti - involution policy on the container shipping industry is currently limited, and attention should be paid to the influence of Sino - US tariff negotiations on the macro sentiment of EC. It is recommended to hold short positions for the 2510 contract [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Performance - The container shipping index (European line) showed weak operation yesterday. The main 2510 contract closed at 1425.1 points, down 4.66% and reduced positions by 3056 lots; the second - main 2512 contract closed at 1692.3 points, down 3.59% and reduced positions by 45 lots; the near - month 2508 contract closed at 2121.6 points, down 0.66% and reduced positions by 724 lots [7]. 3.2 Spot Freight Rates - The PA alliance increased the price - cut intensity, with the market freight rate center in the 2nd adjustment of August falling to the range of $3100 - 3200/FEU. Different alliances and shipping companies also adjusted their freight rates, such as the Gemini alliance, Maersk, and the 20A alliance. The PA alliance's weekly price - cut range expanded to $400/FEU, and the MSG 33 - week shipping schedule was adjusted down by $300 to $3340/FEU [8]. 3.3 Fundamentals (Supply - side) - In the supply - side, the AEU3 canceled sailings in week 34. Cosco & OOCL made ship - axis adjustments. Maersk's overtime ship MAERSK EMDEN confirmed its port calls. August's weekly capacity was slightly revised up from 32.4 million TEU to 32.7 million TEU, with extremely high capacity pressure in week 34. September's weekly capacity was revised down from 32.1 to 31.8 million TEU, a - 3% month - on - month decrease compared to August, a + 5.7% increase compared to July, and on par with April's capacity level [9]. 3.4 Market Trends and Strategies - From a monthly perspective, September is likely to see a pattern of reduced supply and demand, but the decline in the currently - counted capacity may be less than that in demand. The trading logic for the main 2510 contract is to go short on rallies. It is recommended to hold short positions for the 10 contract [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The soybean market in the US is experiencing a downward trend due to favorable weather conditions in the soybean - growing regions and is expected to fluctuate around the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on soybean planting, growth, import arrivals, and the progress of China - US tariff negotiations [8][10][12]. - The domestic soybean market is also on a downward trend, influenced by the US soybean market, increased import arrivals, and expectations of a domestic soybean harvest. It is affected by the interaction between the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and the expected increase in imported soybean arrivals [10]. - The domestic soybean meal market is in a narrow - range oscillation. With high import arrivals in July, weak spot prices, and an increase in oil - mill soybean meal inventories, it may return to a range - bound pattern in the short term [8][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - For soybean meal M2509, it is expected to oscillate between 2960 and 3020. The market is neutral, with a negative basis, increasing inventories, a bullish trend on the chart, and a bullish signal from the main positions. The US soybean - growing weather and China - US tariff negotiations are the main factors affecting the market [8]. - For soybean A2509, it is expected to oscillate between 4080 and 4180. The market is neutral, with a positive basis, increasing inventories, a neutral chart trend, and a bearish signal from the main positions. The cost of imported soybeans and domestic demand support the bottom, while increased imports and domestic harvest expectations limit the upside [10]. 2. Recent News - The progress of China - US tariff negotiations is uncertain in the short term. With favorable weather for US soybean planting, the US market is in a downward trend and is expected to oscillate around the 1000 - point mark [12]. - The volume of imported soybeans in China remained high in July. Oil - mill soybean meal inventories continued to rise, and the Ministry of Agriculture promoted a reduction in protein content in feed formulations, causing soybean meal prices to rise and then fall [12]. - Reduced profits in domestic pig farming have led to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal has weakened since May Day, but tight supply supports post - holiday prices. With reduced pressure from the China - US tariff war, soybean meal has entered a weakly oscillating pattern [12]. - Low oil - mill soybean meal inventories in China support short - term price expectations. The possibility of weather speculation in US soybean - growing regions and uncertainties in the China - US tariff war mean that soybean meal will maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [12]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - **Soybean Meal** - **Bullish factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low domestic oil - mill soybean meal inventories, and uncertain weather in US soybean - growing regions [13]. - **Bearish factors**: High volume of imported soybeans in July, and expectations of a bountiful South American soybean harvest [13]. - **Soybeans** - **Bullish factors**: Cost of imported soybeans supports the domestic market, and expected increased domestic demand supports prices [14]. - **Bearish factors**: Expectations of a bountiful Brazilian soybean harvest and increased Chinese purchases, as well as expected domestic soybean harvest [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data**: From July 22 to July 31, the average transaction price and volume of soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal also showed small fluctuations [15]. - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices**: From July 23 to July 31, the prices of soybean and meal futures and spot prices fluctuated. The spot price of soybean meal was relatively stable, with a high level of spot discount [17][22]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics**: From July 21 to July 31, the number of warehouse receipts for soybeans and soybean meal decreased [19]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: Provide historical data on global and domestic soybean supply - demand balances, including harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory [30][31]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress in Argentina, the US, and Brazil**: Provide data on the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, and Brazil in different periods [32][33][37]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: Provide data on the harvest area, yield, output, and other aspects of soybeans in the US in the past six months [40]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided.

当地时间7月28日至29日，中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰与美方牵头人、美国财政部长贝 森特及贸易代表格里尔在瑞典斯德哥尔摩举行中美经贸会谈。根据会谈共识，双方将继续推动已暂停的 美方对等关税24%部分以及中方反制措施如期展期90天。本次会谈为期约一天半，持续时间比之前偏 短。那除了双方暂停关税延长90天外，这一天半的会谈还释放出中美关税谈判的哪些信号？今晚《夜 话》邀您重点关注。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively neutral stance with poor operability [1] - Alumina: ★☆☆, showing a slightly bullish bias but limited operability [1] - Zinc: Not clearly defined in a standard star - rating way, situation not well - described in a comparable manner [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆, indicating a neutral position with poor operability [1] - Tin: ★☆☆, meaning a slightly bearish bias but limited operability [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bullish bias but limited operability [1] - Industrial Silicon: Not clearly defined in a standard star - rating way, situation not well - described in a comparable manner [1] - Polysilicon: Not clearly defined in a standard star - rating way, situation not well - described in a comparable manner [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ☆☆☆, indicating a neutral position with poor operability [1] Core Views - The market is closely watching the implementation of US tariff agreements with Europe and China, the Fed meeting, and a series of real - economy indicators. Different metals have different price trends and investment suggestions based on their supply - demand fundamentals and market sentiment [1][2][3] Summary by Metals Copper - The Shanghai copper market closed lower on Wednesday, and attention is paid to the support of the MA40 moving average. The decline in copper prices may reach the MA60 moving average, and short positions should be held against the integer - level resistance [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly, with a spot discount of 10 yuan in East China. The off - season demand decline led to inventory accumulation, and the apparent consumption decreased significantly year - on - year. The upper resistance is at 21,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy followed the aluminum market, and the scrap aluminum market had tight supply. The profit of aluminum alloy was negative, with short - term price pressure but medium - term resilience. Consider a long AD and short AL strategy when the price difference on the futures market widens. Alumina prices rose sharply, with increased industry profits, record - high operating capacity, and excess inventory. It is recommended to short against the recent high of 3500 yuan [2] Zinc - There is a stalemate between bulls and bears near the support level of 22,500 yuan/ton. The market is waiting for the result of the Sino - US tariff negotiation. The TC continued to rise in August, and there is still room to short the mine's profit on the futures market. Adopt a mid - term short - on - rebound strategy and wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan [3] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel fluctuated with active trading. The speculation on the "anti - involution" theme cooled down, and nickel with a relatively poor fundamental may return to its fundamentals. The inventory of nickel - iron decreased by 4300 tons to 33,000 tons, the pure nickel inventory increased by 1000 tons to 40,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased by 15,000 tons to 967,000 tons. Wait patiently for short - selling opportunities [6] Tin - Shanghai tin fluctuated during the day. The long - term supply expectation from the mining end may suppress tin prices at high levels. In August, the supply and demand sides continued to compete, and the increase in domestic social inventory is expected to be limited. Hold short positions above 270,000 yuan [7] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened higher and then fluctuated sharply. The total market inventory continued to rise to 143,000 tons. The production of the mid - stream was generally stable, with a 3% month - on - month decline. Technically, the futures price has returned to a reasonable range, and short - term light - position long positions can be tried [8] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly higher, mainly affected by the polysilicon market sentiment. The supply increased slightly in most regions except Xinjiang, and the demand decreased due to an incident in the organic silicon DMC industry. The price is at a historical low, and it is recommended to take light - position long positions [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures closed sharply higher again. Although the news of capacity acquisition was false, it still boosted market sentiment. The factory inventory continued to decline, and there is an expectation of transfer to warehouse receipts. It is recommended to take partial profit on long positions and be cautious about short - selling unilaterally [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market may return to a range - bound pattern in the short term. The bottom of the US soybean futures is supported by the uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas, but the rebound height is limited by the good planting weather recently and the bumper harvest of South American soybeans. In the domestic market, the large arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans also affects the soybean meal market. The soybean meal M2509 is expected to fluctuate between 2960 and 3020 [8]. - The domestic soybean market is affected by the interaction of the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff negotiation and the expected increase in the arrival of imported soybeans. The bottom of the domestic soybean futures is supported by the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand, but the rebound height is limited by the bumper harvest of South American soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production. The soybean A2509 is expected to fluctuate between 4100 and 4200 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Soybean meal: The US soybeans are oscillating and falling back. The overall good weather in the US soybean - producing areas suppresses the market, and it is oscillating above the thousand - point mark waiting for further guidance. The domestic soybean meal rebounds after reaching the bottom, with technical oscillatory consolidation. The high arrival of imported soybeans in July and the weak spot price suppress the market. It may return to the range - bound pattern. The basis is at a discount, the inventory has increased, the price is below the 20 - day moving average but the direction is upward, the long positions of the main force have decreased, and the funds have flowed out [8]. - Soybeans: The US soybeans are oscillating and falling back. The domestic soybeans are oscillating and rising, affected by the US soybean trend and technical oscillatory consolidation. The increase in the arrival of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppress the market. The basis is at a premium, the inventory has increased slightly, the price is below the 20 - day moving average but the direction is upward, the short positions of the main force have decreased, and the funds have flowed out [10]. 3.2 Recent News - The progress of the Sino - US tariff negotiation is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean planting weather is relatively good recently, and the US futures have risen and then fallen back, expected to oscillate above the thousand - point mark [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China remains high in July, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills continues to rise, and the soybean meal has risen and then fallen back due to the reduction of protein content in feed formulations [12]. - The decrease in domestic pig - raising profits leads to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, but the tight supply supports the post - festival price. With the weakening pressure of the Sino - US tariff war, the soybean meal has entered a short - term oscillatory and weak pattern [12]. - The low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal supports the short - term price expectation. The possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas and the variables of the Sino - US tariff war still exist, and the soybean meal remains oscillatory in the short term [12]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: High total arrival of imported soybeans in July in China, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest of South American soybeans [13]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - Bullish factors: Cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean futures, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price [14]. - Bearish factors: Continuous expectation of a bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchase of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppresses the price [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Global soybean supply - demand balance sheet: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and total supply of soybeans generally showed an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated [30]. - Domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheet: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and import volume of domestic soybeans changed, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [31]. 3.5 Position Data - The long positions of the main force in the soybean meal market have decreased, and the funds have flowed out [8]. - The short positions of the main force in the soybean market have decreased, and the funds have flowed out [10]. 3.6 Other Market Information - The export inspection of US soybeans on a weekly basis has declined both month - on - month and year - on - year [41]. - The arrival peak of imported soybeans has been postponed to June, with an overall increase [43]. - The soybean inventory of oil mills has increased slightly, and the soybean meal inventory has continued to rise [44]. - The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have declined from a high level, and the demand for forward stocking has increased [46]. - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills has declined from a high level, and the soybean meal output in June has increased year - on - year [48]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has fluctuated slightly, and the profit of imported soybean futures has also fluctuated slightly [49]. - The pig inventory has maintained an upward trend, the sow inventory is flat year - on - year and has declined slightly month - on - month [51]. - The pig price has recently risen and then fallen back, and the piglet price has remained weak [53]. - The proportion of large pigs in the domestic market has increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has increased slightly [55]. - The domestic pig - raising profit has recently declined [57].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: There is a short - term weak recovery in overseas commodity demand, remaining relatively stable overall. The improvement of consumer purchasing意愿 in the US depends on wealth effects and income expectations. Attention should be paid to the latest non - farm data and tariff policies. The low - dollar pattern continues in the long - term, and non - dollar assets should be monitored [8]. - Domestic macro: As the "anti - involution" policy expectations strengthen, although it is the off - season, domestic demand has not significantly declined, and exports remain resilient. Current growth - stabilizing policies mainly use existing resources, with a higher probability of incremental policies in the fourth quarter [8]. - Asset view: There are mainly structural opportunities in domestic assets. Pay attention to Sino - US tariff negotiations and policy signals from the Politburo meeting. Overseas, focus on tariff frictions, Fed policies, and geopolitical risks. Strategically allocate resources such as gold and copper [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: Short - term weak recovery in overseas commodity demand, with US consumer purchasing意愿 for real estate, cars, and household durables fluctuating at a low level. Price suppression persists, and improvement depends on wealth effects and income expectations. Monitor the latest non - farm data and tariff policies. The low - dollar pattern continues in the long - term [8]. - **Domestic Macro**: "Anti - involution" policy expectations are strengthening. Despite the off - season, domestic demand has not declined significantly, and exports are resilient. Current growth - stabilizing policies mainly use existing resources, with a higher probability of incremental policies in the fourth quarter [8]. - **Asset View**: Focus on structural opportunities in domestic assets, and pay attention to Sino - US tariff negotiations and Politburo meeting signals. Overseas, be aware of tariff frictions, Fed policies, and geopolitical risks. Strategically allocate resources such as gold and copper [8]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: The main line of "anti - involution" has switched. With insufficient incremental funds, it is expected to rise in a volatile manner [9]. - **Stock Index Options**: Volatility has reached an inflection point. It is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Bond market sentiment has improved. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to factors such as unexpected tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [9]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Precious metals continue to adjust. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to Trump's tariff policy and Fed's monetary policy [9]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Focus on the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to tariff policies and shipping company pricing strategies [9]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: Market sentiment has cooled, and the price has fallen from a high level. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to special bond issuance progress, steel exports, and hot - metal production [9]. - **Iron Ore**: Port inventory has decreased slightly. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to overseas mine production and shipping, domestic hot - metal production, weather, and policy [9]. - **Coke**: Spot prices have started the fourth round of increases, and the futures price has followed coking coal's limit - down. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [9]. - **Coking Coal**: Policy - stimulated sentiment has reversed, and the futures price has limit - down. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [9]. - **Silicon Iron**: Bullish sentiment has cooled, and the futures price has opened lower and fluctuated. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to raw material costs and steel procurement [9]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Market sentiment has cooled, and the futures price has opened lower and fluctuated. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to cost prices and overseas quotes [9]. - **Glass**: Speculative sentiment has declined, and intermediate - level inventory has increased significantly. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to spot sales [9]. - **Soda Ash**: Market sentiment has weakened, and both futures and spot prices have declined rapidly. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to soda ash inventory [9]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: A non - ferrous growth - stabilizing plan is about to be introduced, supporting the copper price. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to supply disruptions, policy surprises, and demand recovery [9]. - **Alumina**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and the price has adjusted from a high level. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to ore production recovery and electrolytic aluminum production [9]. - **Aluminum**: The boost in sentiment has slowed, and the aluminum price has declined. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand [9]. - **Zinc**: Macro sentiment remains, and the zinc price is oscillating at a high level. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to macro risks and zinc ore supply [9]. - **Lead**: Supply and demand are relatively loose, and the lead price is oscillating. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to supply disruptions and battery exports [9]. - **Nickel**: "Anti - involution" trading has slowed, and the nickel price is fluctuating widely. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to macro, geopolitical, and Indonesian policy risks [9]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of nickel iron has slightly rebounded, and the stainless - steel futures price is oscillating. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to Indonesian policies and demand growth [9]. - **Tin**: LME inventory continues to decline, and the tin price is oscillating strongly. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to production recovery in Wa State and demand improvement [9]. - **Industrial Silicon**: "Anti - involution" sentiment persists, and the silicon price has rebounded. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to supply - side production cuts and photovoltaic installations [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and the lithium price has回调 after rising. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to demand, supply disruptions, and technological breakthroughs [9]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical support continues, and attention is on Russian oil risks. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitical situations [11]. - **LPG**: Supply pressure persists, and cost factors dominate. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to cost progress such as crude oil and overseas propane [11]. - **Asphalt**: Spot prices are falling, and the futures price is under downward pressure. It is expected to decline, with attention to unexpected demand [11]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It has weakened during the power - generation peak season. It is expected to decline, with attention to crude oil and natural - gas prices [11]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price follows crude oil and weakens. It is expected to decline, with attention to crude oil and natural - gas prices [11]. - **Methanol**: Commodity sentiment has faded, and the price has declined with coal. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [11]. - **Urea**: It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with attention to export policies and capacity elimination [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is supported by the macro - environment, but there is a risk of over - trading. It is expected to decline with fluctuations, with attention to coal prices and inventory accumulation [11]. - **PX**: Sentiment fluctuations are intensifying, and fundamental drivers are weakening. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to overseas device restarts and downstream PTA device maintenance [11]. - **PTA**: Large - scale plant maintenance is approaching, and inventory accumulation may slow down. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to unexpected plant maintenance and downstream polyester production cuts [11]. - **Short - Fiber**: It has difficulty following the upstream price increase, and processing fees are compressed. Supply - demand drivers are weak. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to textile exports and downstream purchasing [11]. - **Bottle Chip**: During the production - cut season, cost pricing dominates over supply - demand drivers. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to future production starts [11]. - **Propylene**: Short - term contradictions are limited, and it may follow polypropylene to fluctuate. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to oil prices and the domestic macro - environment [11]. - **PP**: "Anti - involution" sentiment has changed, and the price has declined with fluctuations. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to oil prices and domestic and international macro - environments [11]. - **Plastic**: Macro support has weakened, and the price has declined with fluctuations. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to oil prices and domestic and international macro - environments [11]. - **Styrene**: Commodity sentiment has improved, and attention is on policy details. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to oil prices, macro policies, and device dynamics [11]. - **PVC**: "Anti - involution" sentiment has cooled, and the price is mainly oscillating. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to expectations, costs, and supply [11]. - **Caustic Soda**: Low inventory in Shandong supports the price, and the downward space is limited. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to market sentiment, production starts, and demand [11]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: Market sentiment has stabilized, and prices may strengthen with fluctuations. It is expected to rise with fluctuations, with attention to US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production - demand data [11]. - **Protein Meal**: The excellent - grade rate is higher than expected, and US soybeans are trading around 1000 cents. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to US soybean weather, domestic demand, and trade wars [11]. - **Corn/Starch**: Spot prices are generally stable, waiting for new guidance. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to demand, macro - environment, and weather [11]. - **Pigs**: Inventory remains high, and both futures and spot prices are under pressure. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to farming sentiment, epidemics, and policies [11]. - **Rubber**: The commodity market has adjusted sharply, and the rubber price has dropped significantly. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [11]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The futures price follows the market. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to significant crude - oil price fluctuations [11]. - **Pulp**: "Anti - involution" trading may resume. Pay attention to arbitrage during the price decline. It is expected to rise with fluctuations, with attention to macro - economic changes and US - dollar - based quotes [11]. - **Cotton**: The price difference between months is converging. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to demand and production [11]. - **Sugar**: Imports are expected to increase, limiting the sugar - price rebound. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to abnormal weather [11]. - **Logs**: Fundamental changes are limited, and short - term prices are dominated by macro - expectations. It is expected to decline with fluctuations, with attention to shipment and delivery volumes [11].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - **Soybean Meal**: The U.S. soybean market is affected by weather and Sino - U.S. tariff negotiations. In China, factors such as high soybean imports in July, efforts to reduce protein content in feed, and weak spot prices are influencing the market. The soybean meal M2509 is expected to trade in the range of 2940 - 3000 [8]. - **Soybeans**: The U.S. soybean market has a bottom - support due to weather uncertainties, but the upside is limited. In China, domestic soybeans are supported by cost - advantage over imports, yet the high import volume and expected domestic yield increase are suppressing the price. The soybean A2509 is expected to trade in the range of 4100 - 4200 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - Not provided in the given content. 2. Recent News - Sino - U.S. tariff negotiation progress is short - term positive for U.S. soybeans. U.S. soybean planting weather is currently good, leading to a short - term rise and fall in the U.S. market, with further guidance awaited [12]. - China's soybean imports are high in July, oil - mill soybean meal inventory continues to rise, and the Ministry of Agriculture's push to reduce protein in feed has led to a rise and fall in soybean meal prices [12]. - China's pig - farming profit decline has led to low expectations for pig restocking, resulting in weakening soybean meal demand after May Day. However, supply tightness and reduced Sino - U.S. tariff pressure have put the soybean meal market in a short - term weak - oscillation pattern [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - **Bullish**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low domestic oil - mill soybean meal inventory, and uncertain U.S. soybean - growing weather [13]. - **Bearish**: High July imports of domestic soybeans and expected high yields of South American soybeans [13]. Soybeans - **Bullish**: Cost of imported soybeans supports the domestic market, and expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports prices [14]. - **Bearish**: Expected high yields of Brazilian soybeans and expected increase in domestic soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal and Soybean Prices**: Data shows the trading prices and volumes of soybean meal and soybean futures and spot markets from July 18 - 28, 2025 [15][17]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts for soybeans and soybean meal from July 16 - 28, 2025, with changes compared to the previous day [19]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: Provide data on harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc., from 2015 - 2024 for the global market and 2015 - 2024 for the domestic market [30][31]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress**: Include the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina, the U.S., and Brazil from 2023 - 2025 [32][33][37]. - **USDA Supply - Demand Reports**: Show the data from USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from January - July 2025, including harvest area, yield, production, etc. [40]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the given content.