林高凡 lingaofan@huayuanstock.com 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com 证券研究报告 建筑材料 | 水泥 非金融|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 03 月 25 日 证券分析师 戴铭余 SAC：S1350524060003 daimingyu@huayuanstock.com 王彬鹏 SAC：S1350524090001 wangbinpeng@huayuanstock.com 郦悦轩 SAC：S1350524080001 liyuexuan@huayuanstock.com 事件：公司发布 2024 年年报，实现收入 910.30 亿元，同比下降 35.51%，归母净利 润 76.96 亿元，同比下降 26.19%；其中单四季度实现收入 228.79 亿元，同比下滑 45.53%，归母净利润 24.98 亿元，同比增长 42.27%。业绩符合预期。公司 2024 年 年度权益分配预案拟每 10 股派发现金红利人民币 7.10 元，合计派发现金红利人民 币 37.47 亿元，对应股息率 2.86%。 联系人 市场表现： 行业低景气致使 ...

证券研究报告 建筑材料 | 水泥 非金融|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 03 月 25 日 证券分析师 戴铭余 SAC：S1350524060003 daimingyu@huayuanstock.com 王彬鹏 SAC：S1350524090001 wangbinpeng@huayuanstock.com 郦悦轩 SAC：S1350524080001 liyuexuan@huayuanstock.com 林高凡 lingaofan@huayuanstock.com 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com | 基本数据 | | | 2025 | 年 | | 24 | 月 | 03 | | | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | | 24.75 | | | | | | | / 最 低 | 最 | 高 | | | | | | | 内 | | | | （元） | | | | | | | | | | | | | 总市 ...

沪铝震荡偏强，氧化铝中性：库存等变化 【铝和氧化铝市场一周动态】过去一周，沪铝价格整体回调，回调深度有限，下游有畏高情绪，现货成 交贴水未修复。供应端新增产能伴随产能置换，复产结束后暂无压力。消费端虽 1-2 月宏观数据表现不 一，但整体复苏，社会库存季节性去库顺利，库存压力不大。当前宏观额外扰动因素减少，氧化铝价格 回落使电解铝利润扩大，铝价缺乏进一步支撑。长期看，中国及海外处于降息周期，贸易摩擦持续，非 洲不确定性增加，通胀是主要考虑因素。 海外氧化铝成本低廉，国内氧化铝价格因海外成交价格回落 缺乏支撑。1-2 月中国氧化铝进出口超 30 万吨未引起供应短缺，海外价格形成压力。国内虽因成本出 现检修降负荷，但供应过剩格局未扭转，社会库存持续增加，内陆地区氧化铝检修对盘面价格反弹推力 不足，上涨空间有限。 截至 2025/3/21 当周，伦铝价减少-2.38%至 2624.5 美元/吨，沪铝主力减 少-1.38%至 20700 元/吨。LME铝现货升贴水(0-3)由上周的 20.04 美元/吨变动至 13.48 美元/吨。电解铝 周度运行产能基本平稳，建成产能 4519 万吨，运行产能 4403 万吨，周度 ...

证券研究报告 水泥拐点或至：行业供需端新变化及当前情况梳理 西部证券研发中心 2025年3月13日 分析师 | 张欣劼 S0850518020001 核心观点 水泥行业拐点或至 请务必仔细阅读报告尾部的投资评级说明和声明 2 • 需求端：房屋新开工拐点将近，需求或比预期好。100城三线城市住宅拿地面积已连续两月回正，2025年1、2月累计同比 +38.87%、+16.00% ，300城三线城市拿地面积也有所好转，1、2月累计同比+0.53%、-11.80%（24年11、12月累计同比 分别为-17.64%，-20.68%） 。若三线城市拿地回暖信号进一步传导至300城全样本拿地面积，有望拉动整体地产新开工面 积提升，促进水泥需求端改善。 • 供给端：1）2025年3月6号，国家发展改革委主任表示将分行业出台化解重点产业结构性矛盾具体方案，推动落后低效产能 退出，扩大中高端产能供给，让供给侧更好地适应市场需求的变化。2）限制超产政策执行落地可期。24年10月工信部推出 的《水泥玻璃行业产能置换实施办法》提出生产线实际日产量不得超过备案产能的110%、超产产能在2025年底前需补齐产 能指标，因此，我们预计202 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the building materials industry, emphasizing price increases and improved shipping conditions as key drivers for growth in 2025 [1][3]. Core Insights - Price increases are the main theme for the building materials industry in spring 2025, signaling a return to rational competition after a period of aggressive price wars [3][32]. - The cement sector is experiencing price hikes driven by low inventory levels, with a consensus among companies to avoid destructive competition, leading to a gradual recovery in profitability [3][11]. - The consumer building materials segment is witnessing price increases across various categories, indicating a potential turning point for the industry [3][32]. - The fiberglass industry is seeing multiple rounds of price increases, suggesting a recovery in profitability, while the glass sector faces challenges related to construction completions [3][32]. Summary by Sections Cement - Low inventory levels are driving price increases, with significant hikes reported in various regions starting from March 2025 [7][8]. - The industry has reached a consensus to prevent destructive competition, which is expected to lead to a gradual recovery in profitability [11][12]. - Major companies such as Conch Cement are highlighted for their cost and scale advantages, with profitability expected to improve [18][19]. Consumer Building Materials - The demand for consumer building materials is improving due to active second-hand housing transactions, which are expected to boost shipments [36][49]. - Price increases in categories like gypsum board and coatings are signaling a shift towards profitability recovery [36][39]. - Companies such as Beixin Building Materials and Weixing New Materials are recommended for their strong market positions and growth potential [37][40]. Fiberglass - The fiberglass sector is experiencing a recovery in prices, with electronic yarn and cloth prices showing upward trends [52][53]. - The industry is expected to continue benefiting from new application scenarios and sustained demand growth [53][54]. Glass - The flat glass sector is under pressure due to declining construction completions, necessitating close monitoring of supply-side adjustments [32][49]. - Companies like Qibin Group and South Glass A are recommended for their market positions amid these challenges [32][49].

Summary of Conference Call on Cement Industry Industry Overview - The conference focuses on the cement industry, highlighting its challenges and future outlook [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Demand Decline**: The cement industry is expected to experience a continuous decline in demand over the next five to ten years, with a significant drop from 2.4 billion tons in 2021 to approximately 700 million tons, representing nearly a 25% decrease [2][3]. 2. **Historical Demand Trends**: From 2014 to 2021, the cement demand remained stable at around 2.4 billion tons, but began to decline in 2022 due to decreased real estate activity and infrastructure investment [2][3]. 3. **Long-term Demand Projection**: Long-term demand is projected to stabilize at around 1 to 1.2 billion tons, which is about half of the peak demand levels [3][4]. 4. **Capacity Utilization Issues**: Despite nominal capacity utilization rates being reported at over 60%, actual utilization may be as low as 53% by 2024, indicating significant overcapacity in the industry [4][5]. 5. **Need for Capacity Reduction**: The industry must undergo capacity reduction to achieve healthy development, as past attempts at supply-side reforms have not effectively reduced capacity [3][5]. 6. **Historical Context of Capacity Management**: The industry has seen attempts to manage capacity through policies like capacity replacement and peak-shaving production, but these have often resulted in nominal increases in capacity rather than reductions [6][7][9]. 7. **Regional Capacity Shifts**: There has been a trend of shifting excess capacity from regions with declining demand (e.g., Northeast China) to areas with higher demand (e.g., Guangxi, Hubei) [7][8]. 8. **Policy Challenges**: The effectiveness of policies aimed at reducing capacity has been undermined by industry responses that circumvent regulations, leading to a situation where actual capacity may not decrease as intended [9][10]. 9. **Profitability through Peak-Shaving**: The cement industry has managed to maintain profitability through peak-shaving production strategies, even at low capacity utilization rates, with prices increasing significantly during periods of limited supply [11][12]. 10. **Future Outlook**: The industry faces increasing cost pressures, particularly for smaller enterprises, necessitating further consolidation and capacity reduction to return to a state of supply-demand balance [13][14]. Other Important Insights - The cement industry has unique characteristics that allow for effective peak-shaving strategies, supported by government policies aimed at reducing carbon emissions and pollution [11][12]. - The long-term sustainability of profitability through peak-shaving is questionable, as demand continues to decline, necessitating a more robust approach to capacity management [13][14].