Core Viewpoint - The urea market is currently stable but is expected to continue weak performance in the short term due to limited supportive factors and cautious trading behavior [1] Market Conditions - As of October 22, the urea market is operating steadily, influenced by expectations from industry conferences, with most companies maintaining stable pricing [1] - There is some demand present; however, the support for price increases is limited, leading to cautious trading with downstream buyers purchasing only as needed [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The market is characterized by a strong supply and weak demand, resulting in a cautious market sentiment [1] - Without any policy disruptions, there are no optimistic expectations for price increases, as upstream pricing adjusts according to market sentiment while downstream buyers remain cautious [1] Future Outlook - The internal demand has not been fully released, and the oversupply issue remains unresolved, with no immediate drivers for price rebounds [1] - Short-term fluctuations are anticipated, with future attention needed on industry conferences, futures market sentiment, and reserve demand [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market is operating steadily with a slight downward trend in some regions, as demand remains weak and market participants exhibit cautious purchasing behavior [2]. Price Summary - Light soda ash prices in East China are maintained at 1130-1600 CNY/ton, while heavy soda ash prices are at 1250-1320 CNY/ton [2]. - In Central China, light soda ash prices range from 1110-1320 CNY/ton, and heavy soda ash prices are between 1240-1350 CNY/ton [2]. - The price indices for light and heavy soda ash on October 20 are 1160 and 1211.43 respectively, remaining unchanged from the previous working day [3]. Market Dynamics - The soda ash futures market showed a slight fluctuation, with the main contract SA2601 opening at 1214 CNY/ton and closing at 1219 CNY/ton, reflecting a daily change of 0.00% [5]. - The industry is characterized by a strong supply and weak demand situation, with high operating rates and accumulating inventories, leading to significant de-stocking pressure [5]. - The downstream glass market continues to decline, contributing to weak support for soda ash prices [5]. Future Outlook - The soda ash market is expected to continue its weak performance in the short term, with a gradual recovery in operating rates as previously shut-down facilities restart [6]. - Demand remains soft, with limited new orders and cautious purchasing intentions from downstream enterprises [6]. - If inventory pressures persist, manufacturers may implement discount measures to stimulate sales [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The pulp main contract fluctuated at a low level last week. The SP2601 opened at 5080, reached a minimum of 5042, a maximum of 5198, and closed at 5122, with a gain of 0.87%. As of October 17, the top 20 long positions in the pulp 2601 contract were 114,426 lots (an increase of 5,390 lots from the previous day), and the top 20 short positions were 127,104 lots (an increase of 5,198 lots from the previous day) [2] - As of October 17, the price of Shandong Yinxing was 5,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from last week; the price of Shandong Wuzhen was 5,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from last week [2] - It is reported that in September 2025, Chile's Arauco Company's quotation for coniferous pulp Yinxing remained unchanged at $700/ton; the quotation for broadleaf pulp Mingxing was $540/ton, an increase of $20/ton; the quotation for natural pulp Jinxing remained unchanged at $590/ton [2] - In September 2025, China's pulp imports were 2.952 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 11.3% and a year-on-year increase of 10.3%. From January to September, the cumulative imports were 27.061 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 5.6%. In September 2025, the import volume of bleached coniferous pulp was 691,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 12.5% and a year-on-year increase of 11.3%. From January to September, the cumulative import volume was 6.431 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 2.4% [2] - In this period, the downstream demand for household paper was weak, the paper mills' shipments were poor, and the industry's operating rate was low. The large white cardboard manufacturers had strong production and sales, the paper mills' profitability improved, but the traders' shipments were average and their trading enthusiasm was not high. The downstream consumption of offset paper continued to be weak, the operating level of some printing factories was not high, and the procurement was mainly for rigid demand replenishment. The copperplate paper market had sufficient supply, the demand was weak, the consumption speed of downstream base paper was slow, and users purchased according to quantity [2] - As of October 16, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.074 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% and a year-on-year increase of 25.7%. The weak demand from downstream paper mills and limited提货 led to high inventory [2] - The total import volume of pulp continued to increase year-on-year, and the shipments of international mainstream suppliers to the Chinese market also remained at a high level. Coupled with the high port inventory, the short-term pressure on the supply side was difficult to relieve. The overall terminal demand in the downstream base paper market was weak, paper mills mainly purchased raw materials for rigid demand, and the willingness to actively increase purchases was weak. The overall market sentiment was cautious. The current "supply is stronger than demand" pattern in the pulp market continued, but thanks to the relatively strong spot price and the support of import costs, the downward space for prices may be limited, and it is likely to maintain a low-level fluctuation in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - The report presents the price data of pulp, including the closing price of the pulp futures main contract, pulp basis, the CFR intermediate price of Yinxing in China's main port area, the CFR intermediate price of broadleaf pulp Mingxing, the mainstream price of Mingxing brand broadleaf pulp in Shandong, and the market price of coniferous pulp Yinxing in Shanghai [3][5][7][8][10][13][15] Pulp Supply - The report shows the pulp import volume and coniferous pulp import volume from 2021 to 2025 [16][18][20] Pulp Demand - The report includes the consumption of coniferous pulp in Europe, the apparent consumption of pulp in China, the operating rate of downstream base paper, the consumption of downstream base paper, the inventory of downstream base paper, and the price of downstream base paper [21][22][24][33][37][41] Pulp Inventory - The report presents the inventory data of pulp, including European pulp port inventory, global wood pulp finished product inventory available days, pulp futures inventory, European coniferous pulp inventory, and European coniferous pulp inventory available days [44][45][46][48][50][54]

Core Viewpoint - Despite facing multiple challenges in recent years, China's economy has made significant progress in technological transformation and upgrading in key industries, leading to an increase in overall productivity and supply-side capabilities [2][4] Group 1: Demand-Supply Relationship - The primary contradiction in the current demand-supply relationship is insufficient demand, which has been a typical fact in recent years [2] - Within total demand, the main contradiction is insufficient domestic demand, with external demand contributing significantly more to GDP growth compared to previous periods [2][3] - The investment and consumption dynamics show that consumption is the more prominent issue, with consumption rates in China significantly lower than the international average [3][4] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Among total consumption, the weakness in household consumption is a major concern, with data indicating that China's household consumption rate is 18 percentage points lower than the G20 average [3] - Service consumption, particularly in education, healthcare, and housing, is lagging, which is linked to the slow progress in equalizing basic public services [3][4] Group 3: Public Resource Allocation - The allocation of public resources has historically favored investment and development, which has led to a relative weakness in final consumption [4][6] - There is a need to optimize the allocation of public resources to support consumer spending without hindering supply-side advancements [5][6] Group 4: Strategies for Boosting Consumption - To stimulate consumption, it is essential to adjust the focus of public resource allocation towards enhancing final consumption and expanding domestic demand [7] - Systematic reforms in public services and fiscal policies are necessary to improve accessibility and equality in services for urban and rural residents [7][8] - Reforms in the household registration system and land use rights are crucial for fostering urban-rural integration and enhancing consumer capacity [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply production scheduling has increased and is near the historical average, while demand recovery remains at a low level, and cost support has risen. The 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 8440 - 8700 [6]. - **Polysilicon**: Supply production scheduling will increase in the short - term and may adjust in the medium - term. Demand is currently in a state of decline but may rebound later, and cost support remains stable. The 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 49985 - 51745 [8]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 97,000 tons, a 4.30% week - on - week increase [6]. - **Demand**: Last week, the demand for industrial silicon was 82,000 tons, a 4.65% week - on - week decrease, with continuous weak demand [6]. - **Inventory**: Polysilicon inventory is 240,000 tons (high), silicone inventory is 55,100 tons (low), aluminum alloy ingot inventory is 757,000 tons (high), social inventory is 545,000 tons (a 0.37% week - on - week increase), sample enterprise inventory is 167,850 tons (a 3.29% week - on - week increase), and main port inventory is 120,000 tons [6]. - **Cost**: The production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang is 3126 yuan/ton, and cost support has increased during the dry season [6]. - **Base Difference**: On October 15, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, and the 11 - contract base difference was 730 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Disk**: MA20 is upward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below MA20, showing a neutral trend [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing, showing a bearish trend [6]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week, the polysilicon output was 31,000 tons, a 0.32% week - on - week decrease. The planned production in October is 134,500 tons, a 3.46% month - on - month increase [8]. - **Demand**: Last week, the silicon wafer output was 12.83GW, a 6.89% week - on - week decrease, and the inventory was 167,800 tons, a 7.83% week - on - week increase. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The planned production in October is 55.68GW, a 5.93% month - on - month decrease. Battery cell production is also in a loss state, and component production is in a profit state [8]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 36,150 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 15,100 yuan/ton [8]. - **Base Difference**: The price of N - type dense material is 51,250 yuan/ton, and the 11 - contract base difference is 1885 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory is 240,000 tons, at a high level compared to the same period in history, with a 6.19% week - on - week increase [8]. - **Disk**: MA20 is downward, and the 11 - contract price closed below MA20, showing a bearish trend [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and long positions are increasing, showing a bullish trend [8]. 3.2 Market Overviews Industrial Silicon - Futures contract prices showed different degrees of increase or decrease, and inventory data such as social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and main port inventory had corresponding changes [14]. Polysilicon - Futures contract prices generally increased, and data on silicon wafer production, inventory, battery cell production, and component production also had corresponding changes [16]. 3.3 Price and Inventory Trends - **Industrial Silicon**: Included price - base difference and delivery product price difference trends, inventory trends, production and capacity utilization trends, cost trends, and supply - demand balance tables [18][24][27][33][35]. - **Polysilicon**: Included disk price trends, cost trends, and supply - demand balance tables [21][59][62]. 3.4 Downstream Trends - **Organic Silicon**: Included DMC price and production trends, downstream product price trends, import - export and inventory trends [41][43][48]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Included price and supply trends, inventory and production trends, and demand trends (automobile and wheel hub) [51][54][56]. - **Polysilicon**: Included fundamental trends, supply - demand balance tables, silicon wafer trends, battery cell trends, and photovoltaic component trends [59][62][65].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is characterized by a supply - demand imbalance, with over - supply and weak demand, making it difficult to reverse the downward trend due to capacity mismatch [8][11]. - The 2601 lithium carbonate contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 71,720 - 73,640 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals** - Supply: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 20,635 tons, a 0.58% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average [8]. - Demand: The inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 101,848 tons, a 3.62% week - on - week increase; the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,849 tons, a 0.26% week - on - week decrease [8]. - Cost: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 73,349 yuan/ton, a 0.07% day - on - day decrease, resulting in a loss of 1,413 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica was 75,178 yuan/ton, a 1.21% day - on - day decrease, resulting in a loss of 5,225 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, with low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8]. - **Basis**: On October 14, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 240 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory was 34,747 tons, a 3.75% week - on - week increase, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 59,765 tons, a 1.85% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average; other inventories were 40,290 tons, a 5.06% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average. The total inventory was 134,801 tons, a 1.47% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average [8]. - **Market Chart**: The MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20, showing a bearish signal [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, with an increase in short positions, showing a bearish signal [8]. - **Expectation**: In September 2025, lithium carbonate production was 87,260 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 89,890 physical tons, a 3.01% month - on - month increase. The import volume in September was 20,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 22,000 physical tons, a 10.00% month - on - month increase. Demand is expected to strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced. The CIF price of 6% concentrate decreased on a daily basis, lower than the historical average [8]. 3.2 Market Overview - **Lithium Ore**: The price of lithium spodumene (6%) decreased by 0.12% to 828 US dollars/ton; the price of lithium mica concentrate (2.5%) decreased by 2.27% to 1,725 yuan/ton [13]. - **Lithium Salt**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.14% to 73,000 yuan/ton; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.14% to 70,750 yuan/ton [13]. - **Positive Materials and Lithium Batteries**: The prices of some positive materials and lithium batteries showed different degrees of increase or remained stable [13]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price**: The price of lithium ore has shown certain fluctuations over time [22]. - **Production**: The production of lithium spodumene mines and lithium mica in China has changed year - by - year [22]. - **Import**: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate has fluctuated, with a significant decrease in imports from Australia [15][22]. - **Self - Sufficiency Rate**: The self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has shown different trends for lithium spodumene, lithium ore, and lithium mica [22]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of lithium ore held by port traders and for sale has changed over the years [22]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Production**: The weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, recycling) has changed over time [28]. - **Import**: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries (Chile, Argentina) and the total import volume have changed [28]. - **Recycling**: The monthly recycling volume of waste lithium batteries has changed [31]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Capacity Utilization**: The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide has changed over the years [37]. - **Production**: The production of lithium hydroxide from different sources (causticization, smelting) and the total production have changed [37]. - **Export**: The export volume of Chinese lithium hydroxide has changed over the years [37]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - **Lithium Spodumene and Lithium Mica**: The production cost and profit of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica concentrate have changed over time [42]. - **Recycling**: The cost and profit of producing lithium carbonate from recycled materials (phosphate - iron lithium battery black powder, etc.) have changed [44]. - **Other**: The profit of purifying industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the profit of carbonizing lithium hydroxide into lithium carbonate, etc., have changed [44]. 3.7 Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate in smelters, downstream, and other aspects has changed [49]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide in smelters and downstream has changed [49]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Price**: The price of lithium batteries has changed over time [53]. - **Production**: The monthly production of lithium battery cells (power ternary, power lithium iron phosphate, energy storage) has changed [53]. - **Loading**: The monthly loading volume of power batteries (lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials) has changed [53]. - **Export**: The export volume of lithium batteries has changed over the years [53]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price**: The price of ternary precursors has changed over time [58]. - **Cost - Profit**: The cost and profit of ternary precursors have changed [58]. - **Production**: The monthly production of ternary precursors has changed [58]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors has changed monthly [61]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price**: The price of ternary materials has changed over time [64]. - **Cost - Profit**: The cost and profit of ternary materials have changed [64]. - **Production**: The production of ternary materials has changed [64]. - **Export - Import**: The export and import volumes of ternary materials have changed [66]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of ternary materials has changed [66]. 3.11 Demand - Phosphate Iron/Phosphate Iron Lithium - **Price**: The price of phosphate iron and phosphate iron lithium has changed over time [68]. - **Cost - Profit**: The cost and profit of phosphate iron lithium have changed [68]. - **Production**: The monthly production of phosphate iron and phosphate iron lithium has changed [71]. - **Export**: The monthly export volume of phosphate iron lithium has changed [71]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of phosphate iron lithium has changed [73]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production**: The production of new energy vehicles (plug - in hybrid, pure - electric) has changed over time [76]. - **Export**: The export volume of new energy vehicles has changed [76]. - **Sales**: The sales volume of new energy vehicles (plug - in hybrid, pure - electric) and the total sales volume have changed [76]. - **Penetration Rate**: The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles has changed [77]. - **Inventory Index**: The monthly dealer inventory warning index and inventory index of new energy vehicles have changed [80].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation of lithium carbonate shows over - supply and weak demand due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change [8][9][10][13]. - It is expected that in the next month, the supply of lithium carbonate will increase, with the production volume forecasted to rise by 3.01% and the import volume by 10.00%, while the demand will strengthen and inventory may decrease [9]. - Lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 71,280 - 73,280 [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 20,635 tons, a 0.58% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In September 2025, the production was 87,260 tons, and the forecast for next month is 89,890 tons, a 3.01% increase. The import volume in September was 20,000 tons, and the forecast for next month is 22,000 tons, a 10.00% increase [8][9]. - **Demand**: Last week, the inventory of the iron phosphate lithium sample enterprises was 101,848 tons, a 3.62% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of the ternary material sample enterprises was 17,849 tons, a 0.26% week - on - week decrease. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month [8][9]. - **Cost**: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 73,403 yuan/ton, a 0.90% day - on - day decrease, with a production loss of 1,368 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica is 76,101 yuan/ton, a 1.34% day - on - day decrease, with a production loss of 6,050 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, and the production enthusiasm is average. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8]. - **Comprehensive Evaluation**: The fundamentals are neutral; the basis is bullish; the inventory is neutral; the disk is bearish; the main position is bearish [8][10]. - **Leveraging Factors**: Positive factors include manufacturers' production suspension and reduction plans, a week - on - week decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of lithium spodumene. Negative factors include continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [11][12]. 3.2 Carbonate Lithium Market Overview - **Price Changes**: The prices of various types of lithium carbonate, lithium ore, and related products showed different degrees of decline. For example, the battery - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 0.61% to 73,100 yuan/ton, and the lithium spodumene (6%) price decreased by 1.19% to 829 US dollars/ton [14]. - **Supply - Demand Data**: The weekly and monthly production, import, export, and inventory data of lithium carbonate showed different trends. For example, the monthly production increased, the monthly export decreased, and the total weekly inventory decreased by 1.48% to 134,801 tons [18]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price and Production**: The price of lithium ore has fluctuated over the years, and the production of Chinese sample lithium spodumene mines and domestic lithium mica has also changed. For example, the production of Chinese sample lithium spodumene mines in 2025 showed different levels in different months [25]. - **Import and Self - Sufficiency Rate**: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate has changed, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has also fluctuated over time [25]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Production and Capacity**: The weekly and monthly production, capacity, and import volume of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, recycling) showed different trends. For example, the total weekly production of lithium carbonate showed an upward trend in some periods [31]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The monthly supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate showed different situations, with some months having a surplus and some having a deficit [37]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Capacity Utilization and Production**: The weekly capacity utilization rate and monthly production of lithium hydroxide from different sources (causticization, smelting) showed different trends. For example, the total monthly production of lithium hydroxide increased in some periods [40]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The monthly supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide showed different situations, with some months having a surplus and some having a deficit [42]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - **Cost and Profit of Different Materials**: The cost and profit of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide produced from different materials (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, recycled materials) showed different trends. For example, the production of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium spodumene and lithium mica was in a loss state [45]. - **Processing and Recycling Costs**: The processing costs of different materials and the cost - profit of recycling production also showed different trends [48]. 3.7 Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate from different sources (smelter, downstream, other) showed different trends. For example, the total weekly inventory of lithium carbonate decreased [53]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide from different sources (downstream, smelter) also showed different trends [53]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Production and Sales**: The monthly production, sales, and export volume of lithium batteries showed different trends. For example, the monthly production of power batteries increased [57]. - **Cost and Price**: The cost and price of lithium battery cells also showed different trends [57]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price and Cost**: The price and cost of ternary precursors showed different trends. For example, the price of ternary precursors of different series showed different levels [62]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The monthly supply - demand balance of ternary precursors showed different situations, with some months having a surplus and some having a deficit [65]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price and cost - profit of ternary materials showed different trends. For example, the price of ternary materials of different series showed different levels [68]. - **Production and Inventory**: The production and inventory of ternary materials also showed different trends [68]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price and cost - profit of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium showed different trends. For example, the price of power - type iron phosphate lithium showed different levels [72]. - **Production and Inventory**: The production and inventory of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium also showed different trends [75]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production, Sales, and Export**: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles showed different trends. For example, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased [80]. - **Penetration Rate and Zero - Batch Ratio**: The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles and the zero - batch ratio of hybrid and pure - electric vehicles also showed different trends [81][84].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The pure benzene market maintains a weak and volatile pattern, with a supply - demand imbalance where supply is strong and demand is weak. Its price may face downward pressure, and short - term trends are affected by crude oil fluctuations and downstream start - up changes [2]. - The styrene market shows short - term characteristics of tightened supply and weak demand. Although some device overhauls provide short - term support, overall supply - demand remains weak, and prices may fluctuate weakly [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Fundamentals** - On October 10, the main styrene contract closed down 1.10% at 6,743 yuan/ton, and the main pure benzene contract closed down 0.50% at 5,734 yuan/ton. The closing price of Brent crude oil was 61.5 dollars/barrel (-1.0 dollars/barrel), and the WTI crude oil main contract closed at 65.2 dollars/barrel (-1.0 dollars/barrel). The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5,735 yuan/ton (-35 yuan/ton) [2]. - **Viewpoints** - **Pure benzene**: The supply is high due to postponed refinery overhauls and restart of small plants, and imports may increase. Demand is weak as downstream industries are "off - peak in peak season", and port inventories are high. The supply - demand imbalance persists, and prices may be under pressure [2]. - **Styrene**: Supply is temporarily tightened due to some device overhauls, but it will increase with new capacity coming online. Demand is weak as downstream industries have few orders and high inventories. Prices may fluctuate weakly [3]. 3.2 Industry Chain Data Monitoring - **Prices**: The main styrene futures contract decreased by 1.10% to 6,743 yuan/ton, and the main pure benzene futures contract decreased by 0.50% to 5,734 yuan/ton. Brent crude oil decreased by 1.66% to 61.5 dollars/barrel, and WTI crude oil decreased by 1.55% to 65.2 dollars/barrel. Other prices also showed different degrees of decline [5]. - **Spreads**: The pure benzene domestic - CFR spread decreased by 0.53% to -322.0 yuan/ton, and the pure benzene East China - Shandong spread decreased by 19.44% to -215.0 yuan/ton [5]. 3.3 Industry News - OPEC+ production increased by 400,000 barrels/day in September, with Saudi Arabia contributing 320,000 barrels/day. Iraqi Kurdistan's oil exports restarted, and production may further recover in October [6]. - US refineries entered autumn overhauls, and refined oil demand declined seasonally. US crude oil inventories increased by 3.7 million barrels last week [6]. - Israel and Hamas reached a cease - fire agreement, easing tensions in the Middle East and reducing the geopolitical premium of crude oil [6]. 3.4 Industry Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the prices, spreads, inventories, and capacity utilization rates of pure benzene, styrene, and their related products, with data sources from iFinD and Steel Union Data [7][27].

Group 1: Pig Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Pigs remain in a state of strong supply and weak demand, maintaining a situation of "weak reality and strong expectation" in the short term [5][6]. Summary by Section - **Demand**: In September, demand was briefly boosted by the start of school and the double festivals, but downstream consumption showed no significant improvement, and the fresh - sales rate of slaughtering enterprises remained stable [5]. - **Supply**: Pig prices continued to decline this week. Farmers' panic selling persisted, and large - scale farms with high costs were in continuous losses, leading to a slight decrease in the average weight of pig slaughter [5]. - **Inventory**: It is expected that the inventory of commercial pigs in September will increase month - on - month due to the birth and sales of piglets six months ago and the postponed sales plans of some scale enterprises [5]. - **Profit**: The average national pig slaughter price this week was 12.59 yuan/kg, a new low in more than three years, and the daily price dropped by 10% compared to the beginning of the month. The losses of self - breeding and self - raising and purchasing piglets continued to worsen [5]. Group 2: Egg Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View This week, egg prices continued to fall, and it is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate and decline next week, with the average weekly price in the main production areas ranging from 2.90 - 3.00 yuan/jin [19][21]. Summary by Section - **Demand**: Before the festival, terminal demand weakened, and during the festival, although there was replenishment demand, it was difficult to support egg prices. After the festival, egg prices continued to decline [19]. - **Supply**: The total number of slaughtered chickens was 583,700, a 1.68% decrease from the previous week. The average slaughter age was 498 days, 2 days earlier than last week. Due to the decline in egg prices, farmers were more willing to cull chickens [19]. - **Inventory**: As of Thursday this week, the production - link inventory increased by 49.61% from last week, and the circulation - link inventory increased by 44.53% from last week due to transportation difficulties during the holiday [19]. - **Profit**: This week, the cost of egg - chicken farming was 3.45 yuan/jin, a 1.71% decrease from the previous week, and the farming profit was - 0.30 yuan/jin, a 400% decrease from the previous week [20]. Group 3: Soybean Meal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The end of October will be an important window for the trade relationship. If the tariff situation does not ease, the price of US soybeans is not optimistic. In the long run, if the relationship between China and the US does not change substantially, the price of soybean meal is expected to rise further, but the upside space is limited [34][35]. Summary by Section - **Demand**: In September, the spot market of soybean meal was under pressure, and the traditional holiday stocking demand was far less than in previous years. The monthly trading volume decreased by more than 30% compared to August [34]. - **Supply**: In September 2025, the estimated arrival of soybeans at domestic full - sample oil mills was about 9.945 million tons, and in October, it was estimated to be about 9.49 million tons. The estimated soybean crushing volume was 9.4168 million tons, an increase of 1.4638 million tons compared to the same period in 2024. The supply of soybean meal was loose [34]. - **Inventory**: As of September 26, the dynamic full - sample oil mill soybean meal inventory was 1.1892 million tons, a 19.65% month - on - month increase [34]. - **Profit**: The profit of importing and crushing soybeans in September continued to deteriorate compared to August. As of September 30, the near - month crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans was - 14 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton compared to August 29 [34]. Group 4: Palm Oil Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View During the holidays, there were many positive news from palm oil producing areas, and domestic buyers made a large number of purchases. In the short term, palm oil is expected to fluctuate and strengthen, but the near - month supply is expected to be loose, and the basis price is under pressure [47]. Summary by Section - **Demand**: Indonesia's active promotion of the B50 biodiesel plan boosted market confidence and the expected future demand for palm oil [47]. - **Supply**: From September 1 - 20, the production of crude palm oil in Malaysia decreased by 4.26% compared to the same period last month, and it will enter the production - reduction season in November, with a large price - support space [47]. - **Inventory**: As of October 9, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 552,200 tons, the same as last week, and a 9.16% increase compared to the same period last year [47]. - **Profit**: As of October 9, the FOB price of palm oil for October shipments was 1,098 US dollars/ton, an increase of 30 US dollars/ton from last week. The import cost was 9,640 yuan/ton, an increase of 260 yuan/ton, and the hedging profit was - 82 yuan/ton, an increase of 114 yuan/ton from last week [47]. Group 5: Cotton Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The downstream performance during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season was lower than expected, and there is currently no significant driving force on both the supply and demand sides to push up cotton prices [59]. Summary by Section - **Demand**: As of October 9, the operating load of mainstream textile enterprises was 65.4%, a 1.80% decrease from last week. During the holiday, orders were limited, and some textile enterprises reduced their operating loads or shut down [60]. - **Supply**: As of October 9, 2025, the operating rate of cotton ginning factories nationwide increased to 14.85%, a 4.8% increase from last week. The picking progress in northern Xinjiang accelerated, while in southern Xinjiang, it was about 20%. The acquisition of local cotton in some areas was difficult due to rain [60]. - **Inventory**: In the week of October 9, the cotton inventory of mainstream textile enterprises was equivalent to 27.15 days. The downstream and terminal showed weak purchasing willingness [60]. - **Profit**: In the 2025/26 season, the purchase price of Xinjiang seed cotton was 6.11 yuan/kg. The estimated profit of Xinjiang 400 - type ginning factories was 611 yuan/ton, a decrease of 376 yuan/ton compared to before the festival [59].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the National Day holiday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract showed a rebound after over - decline, but the futures price was under the reverse suppression of the 5 - day moving average, and the short - and medium - term moving averages showed an obvious short - selling trend. It is expected that the Shanghai rubber will continue to run weakly in the future. The bullish expectations at the industrial level are difficult to resist the bearish sentiment in the macro - environment, and the Shanghai rubber 2601 contract is expected to maintain a volatile and weak trend [2][9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Impact of US Government Shutdown - Due to the failure of the US Senate to pass a new temporary appropriation bill on October 6, the US government shutdown continued. The 35 - day shutdown from late 2018 to early 2019 caused a loss of $3 billion to GDP. It is estimated that each week of the current shutdown will reduce the economic growth rate by about 0.15 percentage points, and may reduce it by 0.2 percentage points when the impact on private institutions is included. The shutdown has a major impact on the economy and demand, and drags down the price trend of commodities, which also has a negative impact on Shanghai rubber futures [2] Supply and Demand in the Rubber Market - **Supply**: Currently, both domestic and foreign natural rubber producing areas are in the peak tapping season, especially the Southeast Asian main producing areas. The supply pressure is steadily increasing. In August, the total rubber production of ANRPC member countries was 1.0787 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,500 tons. From January to August, the total rubber production reached 6.8536 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 65,000 tons, or 0.96%. Thailand, the world's largest rubber producer, had a total rubber production of 2.8158 million tons in the first 8 months of this year, a year - on - year increase of 81,900 tons, or 3.00%. Its total export volume from January to August was 2.7569 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 200,600 tons, or 7.85% [4][6] - **Demand**: Affected by the slowdown of the world economic growth due to the global tariff war, the rubber consumption market has cooled down. In August, the total consumption of ANRPC member countries was 899,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17,100 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 44,200 tons, or 4.68%. From January to August, the total consumption was 7.1751 million tons, a significant year - on - year decrease of 267,600 tons, or 3.60%. Overall, the rubber market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand [8] Impact of Typhoon "Maideme" - Typhoon "Maideme" landed and hit the northern part of Hainan Province and the southwestern part of Guangdong Province in China, which are important rubber - planting areas. It may bring a production reduction expectation, which in turn supports the stabilization of the Shanghai rubber futures price. However, the bullish expectation at the industrial level is difficult to resist the bearish sentiment in the macro - environment [8][9]