聚烯烃日报 | 2025-12-10 供强需弱格局延续，聚烯烃连续走跌 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6557元/吨（-86），PP主力合约收盘价为6192元/吨（-83），LL华北现货为6600 元/吨（-20），LL华东现货为6750元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6310元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为43元/吨（+66），LL 华东基差为193元/吨（+86）， PP华东基差为118元/吨（+83）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为84.1%（-0.5%），PP开工率为77.6%（-0.5%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为239.2元/吨（+37.0），PP油制生产利润为-440.8元/吨（+37.0），PDH制PP生产利 润为-681.7元/吨（-113.2）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为1.2元/吨（-58.1），PP进口利润为-226.1元/吨（+46.9），PP出口利润为-17.7美元/吨（+4.8）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为48.1%（-0.9%），PE下游包装膜开工率为50.2%（-0.5%），PP下游塑编开工率 为44.1%（+0.0%），PP下游BOP ...

焦煤焦炭周报 基本面供强需弱 双焦偏弱走势 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/8 投资咨询号：Z0011692 2025 年 12 月 8 日 ⚫ 下游：钢厂铁水产量下跌，终端需求继续放缓。钢厂的 焦炭生产维持，日均焦炭产量小幅增加，库存减少。 ⚫ 中游：焦化企业连续三周盈利，主因焦煤价格走弱，生 产加速，焦炭产量明显增加，但出货困难，库存增加。 全国平均吨焦盈利30（环比-17）元/吨。 ⚫ 上游：矿山生产平稳，供应压力增大，焦煤库存大幅增 加。523家炼焦煤矿山样本核定产能利用率为85.6%，环 比-0.4%。原煤日均产量190.4万吨，环比-0.9万吨，原 煤库存471.6 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report [1][5][7] 2. Report Core View - The domestic market of soymeal is in a pattern of "strong supply and weak demand", with prices oscillating weakly under cost support and inventory pressure. The palm oil market is in a complex game between "weak reality" and "strong expectations", and the futures price may turn to oscillate after a continuous rebound [5][7] 3. Summary by Variety Soymeal (M) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term is weak, medium - term is oscillating, and intraday is weak. The reference view is also weak [5][6] - **Core Logic**: The domestic market is in a "strong supply and weak demand" situation. Soybean supply is abundant, and port soybean inventory has increased significantly year - on - year. The soymeal market is in a game between high - inventory pressure and cost - support expectations, with short - term prices running weakly [5] Palm Oil (P) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term is oscillating, medium - term is oscillating, and intraday is oscillating weakly. The reference view is oscillating weakly [6][7] - **Core Logic**: The palm oil market is in a game between "weak reality" and "strong expectations". Supply - side pressure is significant. Malaysia's inventory is expected to reach a six - and - a - half - year high at the end of November due to high production and slow exports. The futures price is in a game between high - inventory and weak - export pressure and potential policy benefits and seasonal production - reduction expectations, and may turn to oscillate after a continuous rebound [7] Other Information - For varieties with night trading, the night - trading closing price is the starting price; for those without, the previous day's closing price is used. The intraday closing price is the end price to calculate the price change [2] - A decline greater than 1% is considered weak, a decline of 0 - 1% is oscillating weakly, a rise of 0 - 1% is oscillating strongly, and a rise greater than 1% is strong. Oscillation strength/weakness only applies to intraday views, and no distinction is made between short - term and medium - term [3][4] - Short - term refers to within one week, and medium - term refers to two weeks to one month, with the previous day's night - trading closing price as the benchmark [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the importance of boosting consumption to drive economic growth, particularly in the context of the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" period and the challenges of the "middle-income trap" [2] - In the first 11 months of this year, the sales revenue from the consumption upgrade program exceeded 2.5 trillion yuan, benefiting over 360 million people [1] - The government has allocated 300 billion yuan in special long-term bonds to support the consumption upgrade initiative, indicating a strong policy commitment to enhance consumer spending [1] Group 2 - Recommendations include expanding service consumption through subsidies, promoting employee vacation policies, and enhancing consumer confidence by improving dispute resolution mechanisms [2] - Urbanization reforms are suggested to meet the housing and education needs of new citizens, with a focus on equal access to public services for the non-registered population [3] - There is a significant demand for affordable housing among the new citizen group, estimated at around 100 million units, necessitating an annual funding requirement of 2.8 trillion to 4.5 trillion yuan for housing storage during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [4]

消息面 根据印度全国合作糖厂联合会(NFCSF)发布的数据，截至2025年11月30日，累计入榨甘蔗4860万吨，较去年同期的3340万吨增加1520万吨，增幅 45.5%；产糖413.5万吨，较去年同期的276万吨增加137.5万吨，增幅49.81%。 据外媒报道，乌克兰糖业协会表示，该国制糖厂已将2025年收获的836万吨甜菜加工成125万吨白糖。 据不完全统计，截至12月2日广西开榨糖厂超过40家，云南开榨糖厂超过10家，两个产区开榨糖厂已超过50家。 机构观点 华联期货： 行业方面，国际市场基本面未出现明显变化，北半球开榨后，市场转向关注北半球增产预期差，利多缺乏，但原糖已跌至乙醇折糖价下方，预计 短期向下空间有限。郑糖跟随原糖走势，10月食糖进口量和糖浆进口量均高于市场预期，对郑糖价格有所拖累。近期广西、云南糖厂开榨在加速 进行，不过新糖大规模上市需要等到12月中下旬，短期主要受进口冲击及陈糖清库压力。年底供强需弱，总体基本面偏空，暂无利好因素。操作 上建议适当顺势短空，郑糖2605参考压力位5400-5450元/吨。 五矿期货： 目前预估新榨季主要产糖国产量增加，全球供需关系从短缺转为过剩，直到明 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic MMA market is experiencing a slight decline in prices, with a lack of confidence in future market conditions leading to reduced trading activity [1] Industry Summary - As of December 2, the average closing price in the East China primary market is 9,250 yuan/ton, reflecting a decrease of 100 yuan/ton or 1.07% compared to the end of the previous month [1] - Current industry operating rates are stable, and supply is relatively abundant, making it difficult to support prices [1] - Downstream users are primarily focused on contract fulfillment, resulting in insufficient spot purchasing intentions and slow follow-up on new orders [1] - The market is characterized by a strong supply and weak demand situation, leading to expectations of narrow and weak operations in the domestic MMA market [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint In November, the total volume of polyethylene shrank, but LLDPE increased. The supply - demand, variety, and regional differentiation put pressure on prices. There is no clear positive news in supply and demand. With no expected supply contraction and weak demand recovery, the market has insufficient short - term improvement expectations, and the price is restricted from rising. In December, the "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern of the polyethylene market is difficult to change substantially, and the market is likely to continue the weak and volatile trend, with prices under pressure [4][5]. 3. Summary by Section Supply Side - **November Situation**: The total domestic polyethylene supply in November showed a pattern of total contraction and structural differentiation. The total output decreased by 561,400 tons month - on - month to 2.68953 million tons, while LLDPE output increased by 307,000 tons to 1.23863 million tons. The maintenance loss decreased by 28.6% to 368,200 tons. The overall capacity utilization rate rose to 83.24%, with a "two - up, one - down" regional pattern. North China decreased slightly, East China rose significantly by 8.27% to 91.45%, and South China also increased [7][8]. - **December Outlook**: The supply is expected to remain abundant in December. The operation of on - site devices is stable, and with the supplement of previously delayed imported resources, there will be no significant fluctuations in the supply side. The demand lacks clear growth points, and the overall demand provides weak support [5][9]. Inventory - **November Situation**: In late November, the inventory pattern showed an increase in production - end inventory and a decrease in circulation - end inventory. The production - end inventory of PE enterprises rose by 38,000 tons to 454,000 tons, with coal - based enterprises at 70,000 tons and two - oil enterprises at 384,000 tons. The LLDPE production - end inventory rose by 26,900 tons to 166,100 tons. The PE social inventory decreased by 56,300 tons to 471,100 tons, and the LLDPE social inventory decreased by 20,200 tons to 176,500 tons [12][13]. - **December Outlook**: The high production - end inventory still potentially suppresses the market. If the demand improvement is not sustainable, the inventory pressure may be transmitted to the circulation link. If the production end adjusts the production plan, the inventory structural contradiction may be alleviated [5]. Import - **November Situation**: In November, the domestic polyethylene import market showed complex trends. Import prices were regionally differentiated, with LLDPE CFR China at $800/ton (down $14/ton month - on - month), CFR Southeast Asia at $844/ton (down $7/ton), FD Northwest Europe at €899/ton (up €20/ton), and FOB Middle East at $787/ton (down $28/ton). In October, the total import volume decreased slightly by 11,000 tons to 1.0112 million tons, while LLDPE imports increased by 32,900 tons to 358,900 tons. The average monthly import profit showed a pattern of "one up, two down", with LLDPE at - 26.74 yuan/ton (down 13.48 yuan/ton), LDPE at 508.89 yuan/ton (up 110.73 yuan/ton), and HDPE at 16.96 yuan/ton (down 93.55 yuan/ton) [17][18][19]. Demand Side - **November Situation**: In November, the overall downstream开工率 of polyethylene was 44.59%, down 0.33% month - on - month. The agricultural film industry's开工率 was 49.72%, up 7.9%, while the packaging film industry's开工率 was 50.7%, down 0.6%. The raw material inventory of downstream enterprises showed structural changes. The available days of agricultural film enterprises' raw material inventory increased to 15.37 days, and that of packaging film enterprises decreased to 8.33 days [23][24]. - **December Outlook**: In December, the agricultural film demand will enter the off - season, the packaging film will maintain rigid procurement with limited order growth, and the overall demand will be weakly supportive [5]. Cost and Profit - **Cost**: In November, the oil - based polyethylene cost decreased to 7,260.54 yuan/ton, down 79.32 yuan/ton month - on - month, due to the weak international crude oil market. The coal - based polyethylene cost increased to 7,012.25 yuan/ton, up 358.36 yuan/ton month - on - month, due to the supply - demand adjustment in the coal market [28][29]. - **Profit**: In November, the profit of oil - based enterprises decreased significantly to - 383.04 yuan/ton, down 146.89 yuan/ton month - on - month, and coal - based enterprises turned from profit to loss, with a profit of - 130.82 yuan/ton, down 532.94 yuan/ton month - on - month [31]. - **Spread**: In November, the average spread of the PE - PVC:01 contract was 2,238.4 yuan/ton, up 0.69 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the average spread of the PE - PP:01 contract was 371.6 yuan/ton, up 56.84 yuan/ton month - on - month [32].

鸡蛋期货主力涨超1%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 11月20日盘中，鸡蛋期货主力合约怕盘面表现偏强，最高上探至3222.00元。截止发稿，鸡蛋主力合约 报3219.00元，涨幅1.35%。 机构 核心观点 建信期货 鸡蛋短期以低位震荡对待 华联期货 鸡蛋2601压力位参考3300~3400 西南期货 鸡蛋考虑空单逐步止盈 建信期货：鸡蛋短期以低位震荡对待 基本面来看，10月末蛋鸡存栏量在今年首次出现环比下降，说明前期极差的养殖利润已经逐步反馈至供 应端，另外观察近四个月的补栏量同比数据也可以发现，在中期蛋鸡存栏或有持续小幅下行的预期，未 来关注蛋价低迷期及饲料成本的变化，若四季度低迷时间越长，明年一季度末及二季度出现反转的概率 及弹性相对就会越大一些。操作上，短期以低位震荡对待，现货低价或仍将持续一段时间，远月多单机 会可以逢低关注，但近期或仍存反复，近远月价差反套为宜。 华联期货：鸡蛋2601压力位参考3300~3400 市场延续"供强需弱"格局。供应端，10月在产蛋鸡存栏量为13.59亿只，同比仍增长5.59%，虽环比微降 0.66%，但整体处于历史高位；淘汰鸡平均出栏日龄达494天，显示产能 ...

Core Insights - The average price of external three yuan live pigs in China increased by 0.02 yuan/kg to 11.59 yuan/kg on November 18, 2025, while the average price of piglets rose by 0.03 yuan/kg to 19.11 yuan/kg [1][2] - The market sentiment is mixed, with some regions experiencing slight price adjustments, but overall, the market remains in a "strong supply, weak demand" situation [2] Price Trends - The average price of external three yuan live pigs across various regions shows slight increases, with notable prices including: - Heilongjiang: 11.71 yuan/kg - Guangdong: 12.21 yuan/kg - Shanghai: 11.95 yuan/kg [1] - The average price of piglets also varies by region, with the highest price in Guangdong at 20.28 yuan/kg [1] Market Dynamics - The recent drop in temperatures has led to increased optimism among farmers, with some engaging in limited curing activities in southern regions [2] - Despite the positive sentiment, overall consumption remains weak, impacting the sustainability of price increases [2] - The risk of disease in pig herds is rising with the temperature drop, which may lead to earlier market exits by farmers for disease control [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for China to address the structural imbalance in its economy, particularly focusing on the consumption shortfall, to maintain sustainable economic growth and modernization [3][4][5]. Economic Structure and Growth - China's economic growth has recently exhibited a "strong supply, weak demand" characteristic, where insufficient demand, especially in final consumption, has become a key constraint on economic growth [4][6]. - The article highlights that the structural imbalance in the economy is not only due to short-term factors but also has deeper systemic roots related to the allocation of public resources [4][7]. Consumption Shortfall - The consumption shortfall is identified as a critical issue, with the need to address it from a long-term perspective rather than merely responding to its immediate effects [4][10]. - The article suggests that the consumption rate in China is significantly lower than that of other G20 countries, indicating a structural weakness in consumer spending [24][33]. Policy Recommendations - The article proposes several policy recommendations for the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, including optimizing public resource allocation to enhance household income and stimulate final consumption [14][15]. - It emphasizes the importance of reforming the household registration and land systems to support urban-rural integration and improve consumption capacity [14][15]. Supply-Side Improvements - The article notes that while supply-side capabilities have improved significantly, the persistent weak demand highlights the need for a balanced approach to economic growth [17][19]. - It points out that the recent advancements in industrial technology and productivity must be matched by an increase in domestic consumption to fully realize economic potential [19][20]. Structural Challenges - The article outlines five interconnected contradictions within the demand structure, including the relationship between external and internal demand, and the disparity between government and household consumption [6][39]. - It stresses that the service consumption sector is particularly weak, which further exacerbates the overall consumption shortfall [37][39].