美国通货膨胀数据与预期大致吻合，与之前就业数据的意外形成对照，市场聚焦在美联储9月降息力度 上，不过对大码降息预期有所收敛，两年期国债收益率回升。上周股市在流动性推动下继续向好，港 股、日股和韩股表现突出。美元指数小幅浮动，金价一度突破每盎司3700美元，创历史新高，能源和大 宗商品也表现良好。 市场已经定价了100%的概率，美联储将在本周会议上作出降息一码的决定，争论在于会不会有大码 （甚至超大码）降息。从目前联邦基金利率4.25%~4.5%水平下调并非政策宽松，而是从偏紧走向中 性。过去由于通货膨胀，政策利率被加到偏收缩水平，如今由于就业市场出现问题，利率回归中性区间 合情合理，关键是时机和力度。 本周的焦点在美联储议息，预计降息一码但不完全排除大码降息的可能。 笔者认为美国劳工市场的确在明显下滑，但是失业情况的扩散不严重，公司大多秉持"少雇少炒"的原 则，工资仍在上涨，消费情绪也不算太差。同时，关税政策和移民政策带来的最终冲击尚未显现，货币 政策的调整也只能边走边看。米兰空降美联储（如果参议院完成听证）可以令鸽派声音强一点，但改不 了本届按数据决策的基调。 笔者预期今年最后三次议息会议，每次降息一码，明 ...

"北约国家必须立刻停止买俄罗斯石油，还要对中国加征50%到100%的关税——这样才能结束战争！"近期，美国总统特朗普在自创社交 平台上发布的"致全世界的信"，再次将国际舆论推向风口浪尖。这个充满火药味的帖文，不仅延续了他一贯强硬的"交易艺术"风格，更 将矛头直指中国，试图以"关税大棒"逼迫盟友站队，却意外暴露了美国霸权在全球舞台上的裂痕。 特朗普的涉华言论并非孤立事件。之前他在福克斯新闻采访中坦言，俄乌冲突是他"唯一没能搞定"的外交难题。这位曾自诩"擅长与普京 打交道"的总统，如今却陷入了尴尬：谈判桌上拿不出具体方案，只能在战场外制造声势。他嘴上喊着对俄"强硬"，却又称局势是"一个 巴掌拍不响"，暗示泽连斯基与普京都有责任；转头便将矛头转向中国，声称"只要北约对中国加征高额关税，就能利用中国对俄罗斯的 影响力结束战争"。 这种看似"神逻辑"的关联，实则暴露了特朗普的策略本质：将国内"交易思维"复制到国际政治，试图用经济施压代替外交智慧。在他的 认知里，全球经济是一张可以随意涂写的画布，关税是"画笔"，制裁是"颜料"，只要盟友跟着美国"统一行动"，就能逼迫俄罗斯回到谈 判桌。然而，现实是：中国与俄罗斯的关系建立 ...

Core Viewpoint - Mexico has proposed a significant tariff reform, imposing tariffs as high as 50% on imports from non-free trade agreement countries, as part of its industrial policy in response to U.S. tariffs [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff Reform Details - The proposed tariff reform targets 1,371 categories of goods, accounting for 16.8% of Mexico's total tariff codes, with proposed rates of 10%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, and 50% [1]. - The total value of goods affected by the new tariffs is approximately $52 billion, representing 8.6% of Mexico's imports [1]. - The tariffs are expected to be implemented by the end of next year, although there is a possibility of delays [1]. Group 2: Economic Context - Mexico's trade dependency on the U.S. is significant, with both imports and exports to the U.S. around 50% [3]. - In 2024, Mexico's exports to the U.S. are projected to exceed $500 billion, making it a key supplier of automobiles [6]. - The U.S. is also Mexico's largest source of imports, with over $140 billion in goods imported in 2024 [6]. Group 3: Global Trade Implications - The tariff reform is seen as a reaction to U.S. pressure, particularly regarding tariffs on countries like China and India [1]. - The new tariffs will particularly impact industries such as automotive, where tariffs on light vehicles will rise from 20% to 50%, affecting China's market share in Mexico [11]. - The broader implications of the U.S. tariff strategy are leading to a "tariff war," which is disrupting global supply chains and could harm Mexico's economic independence and industrial development [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The actual effective tariff rate in the U.S. is only around 9%-10%, significantly lower than the theoretical rate of approximately 18%, indicating that the negative impact of tariffs on inflation and corporate profits is overstated [1][3][5] Group 1: Tariff Impact Analysis - The report highlights a significant discrepancy between the theoretical effective tariff rate (17%-18%) and the actual effective rate (around 10%), suggesting that the real impact of the trade war is less severe than perceived [5][6] - The primary reason for this discrepancy is attributed to policy exemptions and carveouts rather than transshipment practices, which are believed to have a limited effect [6][7] - The "tariff-flation" effect has not materialized as expected, with the annualized growth rate of the tariff basket's prices remaining moderate at 2% [8] Group 2: Inventory and Profitability Concerns - U.S. companies have engaged in significant import stockpiling prior to the tariffs, with excess imports equivalent to 5-6 months of normal import levels, indicating that inventory buffers are nearing depletion [9] - There is limited evidence to support the notion that companies are absorbing tariff costs by compressing their profits, as profit margins for the S&P 500 remain stable [9]

Group 1 - The core idea is that President Trump is attempting to engage the EU's 27 countries to impose a "secondary tariff" on China, reflecting his inability to handle China alone and seeking to share the burden with allies [1][3][4] - The EU is reportedly eager to collaborate with the US on this tariff strategy, partly due to past grievances and a desire to strengthen ties with the Trump administration [3][4] - There is mutual distrust between the US and EU regarding the execution of these tariffs, with both parties wanting assurances that the other will follow through on their commitments [3][6] Group 2 - Trump's strategy appears to be a response to previous failures in tariff negotiations, as he seeks to use the EU as a buffer to mitigate potential backlash from a failed tariff policy [4][6] - The EU's involvement could potentially catch China off guard, as the combined efforts of 27 nations may pose a greater challenge than unilateral actions [6][9] - The situation may also influence India's stance towards the US, as India's dissatisfaction with US tariffs could lead them to align more closely with China, complicating the geopolitical landscape [7][9]

Core Insights - The actual impact of the trade war on the US economy is significantly less severe than commonly perceived, with the effective tariff rate estimated at only 9%-10%, compared to a theoretical rate of about 18% [1][2] - The lower-than-expected tariff impact is primarily due to policy exemptions rather than transshipment practices, indicating a deliberate choice by policymakers [1][3] Group 1: Tariff Rates and Their Implications - The theoretical effective tariff rate based on announced tariffs is estimated to be 17%-18%, the highest since the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, while the actual effective rate is around 10% [2] - The discrepancy between theoretical and actual tariff rates suggests that the trade war's real effects are not as alarming as they appear [2] Group 2: Factors Mitigating Tariff Impact - Policy exemptions (Carveouts) are identified as a key reason for the lower effective tariff rate, with a significant number of exemption applications approved historically [4] - Transshipment activities, while present, have a limited effect on reducing overall tariff rates, contributing only about 1 percentage point to the effective rate reduction [4] Group 3: Future Risks and Market Reactions - US companies have built up significant inventory buffers prior to the implementation of tariffs, which are now nearing depletion, potentially leading to increased inflation in the coming months [5] - Evidence supporting the notion that companies are absorbing tariff costs by compressing profits is limited, as profit margins for the S&P 500 remain stable [6]

【文/观察者网 柳白】坑盟友这事儿，特朗普政府从来不含糊。 被曝施压欧盟对中印加税后，英国《金融时报》9月11日援引四位消息人士的话称，美国又将向G7国家 施压，要求对购买俄罗斯石油的中国和印度大幅加征关税，企图借此逼迫俄罗斯与乌克兰开展和平谈 判。 当地时间12日，G7国家财政部长将召开视频会议讨论美国提出的新一轮措施提案，这是特朗普推动俄 乌停火努力的一部分。 特朗普本周已敦促欧盟对中国和印度加征最高达100%的关税，现在把施压范围扩大到了G7盟友。 担任G7轮值主席国的加拿大表示，12日的会议是"在与美国磋商后召开的"。 加拿大方面称，会议将"讨论进一步措施，以增加对俄罗斯的压力并限制其战争机器的能力"。 一位不愿意透露姓名的加拿大政府官员表示，会议讨论内容将包括"对继续资助俄罗斯战争机器的国家 征收关税"的提议。 6月17日，加拿大艾伯塔省，G7峰会持续举行。视觉中国 美财政部一名发言人炒作称，中印购买俄罗斯石油，是在为俄罗斯"战争机器提供资金" "本周早些时候，我们已向欧盟盟友明确表示，若他们真心希望结束发生在自家'后院'的这场战争，就 需要与我们并肩行动，实施具有实效的关税，一旦冲突结束，这些关税 ...

Group 1 - The imposition of tariffs is expected to exacerbate the energy demand gap in the U.S., as expressed by multiple companies at the RE+ clean energy exhibition [1][2] - The RE+ exhibition, held from September 8 to 11, showcases technologies and products related to solar energy, wind energy, hydrogen, energy storage, smart grids, and electric vehicles [1] - The tariff policies initiated during the Trump administration have raised concerns about the future of the U.S. renewable energy industry, leading to uncertainty among industry professionals [1][2] Group 2 - Companies like Premier Solar and others have reported significant impacts on their operations due to high tariffs on imported components, with some facing tariffs as high as 125% [1][2] - The uncertainty caused by fluctuating tariffs makes it difficult for companies to predict product costs and set stable pricing, affecting their operational forecasts [2] - Chinese companies, such as CATL, are focusing on enhancing product performance to navigate the challenges posed by tariff changes, emphasizing the continued reliance on Chinese supply chains for the U.S. renewable energy sector [3]

Group 1 - The imposition of tariffs is expected to exacerbate the energy demand gap in the U.S. [1] - The RE+ exhibition highlighted the significant impact of the Trump administration's tariff policies on the renewable energy sector [1][2] - Companies are facing uncertainty in pricing and cost predictions due to fluctuating tariffs, which complicates stable business operations [2] Group 2 - Companies like Premier Solar and others are experiencing severe disruptions in sourcing components due to high tariffs, with some parts facing tariffs as high as 125% [1][2] - The U.S. energy sector is heavily reliant on components and technology from China, despite efforts to promote domestic manufacturing [2][3] - Reports indicate that broad tariffs imposed by the Trump administration could lead to increased energy costs, undermining energy and economic security in the U.S. [3]

| Millio | > 国技期货 | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年09月11日 | | 黄金 | ★☆★ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ★☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜美国公布8月PPI年率录得2.6%不及预期的3.3%为6月以来新低,核心PPI同样远不及预期和前值。特朗普 再度发文敦促鲍威尔必须立即大幅降息。市场聚焦今晚美国CPI数据,如果同样不及预期可能会加大对于未 来降息幅度的押注。美联储会议前贵金属或维持偏强运行，不过连续上涨后波动加剧谨慎追高。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 1 【星级说明】红色星级代表预判趋势性上涨,绿色星级代表预判趋势性下跌 ★☆☆ 一颗星代表偏多/空,判断趋势有上涨/下跌的驱动,但盘面可操作性不强 ★★☆ 两颗星代表持多/空,不仅判断较为明晰的上涨 ...