Core Viewpoint - The potential impact of a renewed tariff war by the United States on Shenghong Technology's operations and exports is minimal due to the nature of its PCB products and existing trade agreements [1] Group 1: Product Characteristics - PCB products are highly customized, have strong customer loyalty, and are widely applicable [1] - The proportion of PCB products in the overall equipment BOM cost is low, indicating low sensitivity to tariffs [1] Group 2: Trade Agreements and Export Impact - According to trade agreements, import tariffs are borne by customers, reducing the financial burden on the company [1] - The direct export of PCB products from mainland China to the United States constitutes a small percentage of the company's total exports, further minimizing the impact of U.S. tariffs on revenue and profit [1] Group 3: Business Operations - The company reports that all business operations are proceeding normally, with sufficient orders on hand [1] - Capacity utilization is at a good level, indicating robust operational performance [1]

中国其实并没有禁止买美国的大豆，只不过因为美国搞关税战，所以我们就顺便给美国的大豆加了关税，这导致巴西和阿根廷的大豆比美国的要便宜，美 国又不肯取消关税，那就这样耗着。 一旦这个轮作链条被打断，那整个产业链上会出现严重问题，那可就不仅仅是大豆的事了，而是影响到玉米的产量，到时候事就大了，你猜巴西和阿根廷 会不会也是大豆跟玉米轮作？买完大豆就该买玉米了。 美国但凡要懂点战略，之前就是顶着压力也得把巴西和阿根廷的农场给干熄火了，这其实是一步步布局下来的，既要保证我们自己有地方买，又要给对手 狠狠一刀，其实都是明牌，甚至有点故意刺激美国的意思。 如今这个连锁反应已经开启，就没什么好办法了，说难听点稀土管制虽然最直接但下手不会太重，但是大豆和船舶靠港费这两件事不同，刀子都递出去了 就收不回来了，是没有后悔药的。 真以为中国在南美修桥铺路建港口、又搞种植又搞养殖是闹着玩的？等布局的这几个点汇聚到一起，美国想不被引爆都很难，到时候看看美国还能出什么 牌，卖台卖日本都有可能。 大豆这个市场并不大，中国不买看起来貌似也没什么问题，前几天阿根廷总统米莱跑到美国去求援，就算阿根廷跟美国抢大豆订单，特朗普还是大手一挥 就给了200 ...

冠通期货研究报告-- 宏观与大宗商品周报 冠通期货研究咨询部王静 执业资格证书编号：F0235424/Z0000771 发布时间：2025年10月20日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 宏观分析 最近，关税风云再起，市场一波三折。全球主要股市多数收跌，美股先抑后扬，A股高位回落震荡调整，BDI指数小幅上扬， 波动率VIX指数明显下行，美债收益率与美元指数联袂下挫，非美货币多数上扬。大宗商品跌多涨少，贵金属一枝独秀，金银 联袂创历史新高之后高位回调，油价的疲弱拖累能化板块。 国内期货市场的表现来看，债市整体收涨远期最强、股指悉数收跌，商品大类板块涨跌互现多数收跌；股市悉数收跌，成 长型风格表现明显更弱，价值股承压回落相对抗跌；国内商品大类板块涨跌互现Wind商品指数周度涨跌幅6.93%，10个商品大 类板块指数中3个收涨7个收跌。具体商品大类表现来看，贵金属一枝独秀，能源与有色的弱势拖累商品整体的收跌，煤焦钢矿 ...

据直新闻报道，台湾时事评论员吕礼诗在节目中表示，美国有本事就收200%关税，千万不要让中国大 陆这么好的运输货柜进入到美国，让美国继续停留在20世纪吧。 据央视新闻消息，当地时间10月17日，美国总统特朗普签署行政令，自11月1日起对进口中型和重型卡 车及零部件征收25%的新关税。特朗普称，还将对进口客车征收10%的关税。 早在10月10日，美方宣布，针对中方采取的稀土等相关物项出口管制，将对中方加征100%关税，并对 所有关键软件实施出口管制。 对此，中国外交部回应，动辄以高额关税进行威胁，不是与中方相处的正确之道。对于关税战，中方的 立场是一贯的，我们不愿打，但也不怕打。中方敦促美方尽快纠正错误做法，以两国元首通话重要共识 为引领，维护好来之不易的磋商成果，继续发挥中美经贸磋商机制作用，在相互尊重、平等协商基础 上，通过对话解决各自关切，妥善管控分歧，维护中美经贸关系稳定、健康、可持续发展。如果美方一 意孤行，中方也必将坚决采取相应措施，维护自身正当权益。 来源：羊城晚报•羊城派综合自直新闻、央视新闻、金羊网 ...

对于当前关税战的情况，美国高盛集团警告所有美国人，到2025年年底，美国消费者可能将承担55%的关税成本。 意料之内的是，特朗普对高盛集团的报告十分愤怒。其已经在社交媒体上发文，称高盛经济师"应该换人"。但事实上，高盛集团的预估，仍旧太过乐观。 玉渊潭天指出，自今年7月起，来自美国的粮食运输船在该码头靠岸艘次已降为0。如果中国在11月中旬之前仍未重返美国市场，美国损失的对华大豆订单可 能高达1600万吨。 要知道，对于美国豆农而言，失去中国，就等于失去半个市场。 数据显示，2024年美国出口大豆金额达245.8亿美元，位居美国农产品出口首位，其中中国购买量超一半，价值126.4亿美元。 然而，随着中美贸易摩擦升级，中国已大幅减少从美国进口大豆，转而从巴西和阿根廷采购。 5月以来，同一码头每月平均有40多艘来自阿根廷、巴西、乌拉圭等南美国家的粮食运输船靠岸，这些船只90%运输的都是大豆。 而这一切的根源，都可以追溯到特朗普发动的关税战。 对于这一现实情况，特朗普已经恼羞成怒。10月14日，特朗普在社交媒体上的一番发言再次引爆了中美贸易这个火药桶。 特朗普直言中国"故意不购买美国的大豆，使美国豆农面临困难"，并将 ...

Economic Growth - China's GDP growth rate for Q3 2023 is 4.8%, slightly above market expectations of 4.7%[2] - Nominal GDP growth rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 3.7%[2] - Q3 quarter-on-quarter economic growth accelerated by 0.1 percentage points to 1.1%, exceeding the market expectation of 0.8%[2] Domestic Demand - September retail sales growth fell for the fourth consecutive month, decreasing from 3.4% in August to 3.0%[3] - Fixed asset investment showed a significant decline, turning negative at -0.5%, below the market expectation of 0.1%[5] - Cumulative urban residents' disposable income growth rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 4.4%[2] Industrial Production - Industrial production value growth rebounded by 1.3 percentage points to 6.5%, surpassing the market expectation of 5.0%[5] - Manufacturing production growth in September increased by 1.6 percentage points to 7.3%[5] External Trade - Exports in September rebounded by 3.9 percentage points to 8.3%, with a trade surplus maintained above $90 billion[7] - The trade conflict with the U.S. poses significant risks, with a 40% chance of renewed tariffs on Chinese goods by November 1[8] Policy Outlook - Limited economic stimulus measures are expected in Q4, with a forecasted GDP growth of around 5% for the year[9] - Monetary policy predictions include a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut and a 10-20 basis point interest rate reduction[10]

US-China Trade Relations - Media reports indicate the US is prioritizing rare earths, fentanyl, and soybeans in upcoming trade negotiations with China [1] - China's stance on trade issues with the US remains consistent and clear [1] - China believes that tariff and trade wars are not in the interest of either party [1] - China advocates for resolving trade issues through consultation on the basis of equality, respect, and mutual benefit [1]

Group 1: Ukraine-Russia Conflict - Ukrainian armed forces targeted key Russian facilities, including the Novokuybyshevsk oil refinery and the Orenburg gas processing plant, resulting in explosions and fires [3] - The Orenburg gas processing plant, operated by Gazprom, is one of the largest gas processing complexes, with an annual capacity of 45 billion cubic meters [3] - Russian defense systems reportedly intercepted 45 Ukrainian drones during the night, with significant interceptions occurring in various regions [4] Group 2: Middle East Tensions - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu ordered strong actions in the Gaza Strip, with the Israeli Defense Forces conducting airstrikes and artillery fire in response to threats from armed personnel [5][6] - Hamas reaffirmed its commitment to ceasefire agreements but accused Israel of violating these agreements by closing the Rafah crossing, a critical humanitarian access point [6][7] Group 3: U.S. Protests - Large-scale protests occurred across major U.S. cities, with organizers claiming participation of millions against various government policies, including immigration and tariffs [2][8] - In New York, over 100,000 people participated in demonstrations, highlighting issues such as rising costs and government spending misallocation [9][10]

金银周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2025年10月19日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 黄金：关税战再起，避险刺激接力；白银：关注海外逼仓情况 强弱分析：黄金偏强、白银偏强 价格区间：870-930元/克、10500-11590元/千克 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 数据来源：Wind、国泰君安期货研究所 2 ◆ 本周伦敦金回升6.3%，伦敦银回升6.58%。金银比从前周的79回落至78.6，10年期TIPS回落至1.75%，10年期名义利率回落至4.02%（2年期 3.46%），美元指数录得98. 55。 ◆ 本周黄金再度创出历史新高，COMEX黄金达到4392美元/盎司，距离4400美元仅一步之遥。黄金价格高企后，上涨斜率只增不减，从突破 4000美金大关至今仅历时10天左右。我们前期提到，特朗普再度挑起贸易战，在中国稀土出口 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Shanjin International, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, and Luoyang Molybdenum [5][6]. Core Views - The report highlights that the precious metals market is experiencing price fluctuations due to tariff disturbances, but the long-term bullish trend remains intact. The U.S. government shutdown and increased tariffs on China are expected to boost gold's safe-haven demand [1]. - For industrial metals, copper prices are supported by supply disruptions, while macroeconomic uncertainties may cause short-term volatility. The aluminum market is expected to see high price fluctuations due to rising interest rate expectations and inventory reductions [2]. - In the energy metals sector, lithium prices are projected to remain strong due to increased supply and demand, particularly in the electric vehicle market. However, the silicon market is facing oversupply issues, leading to price fluctuations [3]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Tariff disturbances have led to price volatility in gold and silver, but the long-term bullish trend is expected to continue. The report suggests strategic allocation in precious metals [1]. - Recommended companies include: Xinyi Silver, Shengda Resources, and Zijin Mining [1]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Prices are supported by supply disruptions from major mines, with a projected increase in price center due to mid-term supply constraints. However, short-term fluctuations may occur due to trade tensions [2]. - **Aluminum**: The market is experiencing high price volatility, influenced by interest rate expectations and inventory levels. The report suggests monitoring inventory accumulation [2]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: The market is showing strong performance with supply and demand both increasing. The report indicates that lithium prices are likely to remain strong in the short term [3]. - **Silicon**: The market is facing oversupply, leading to price fluctuations despite being in a traditional demand season [3]. Key Companies - The report identifies key companies to watch, including: Luoyang Molybdenum, China Hongqiao, and Tianqi Lithium [5][6].