当地时间10日，美国联邦储备委员会结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 25个基点到3.50%至3.75%之间。这是美联储继今年第三次降息，也是自2024年9月以来第六次降息。 美联储主席鲍威尔在10日的新闻发布会上表示，今年美联储通过三次会议降息75个基点，这一政策立场 的进一步正常化将有助于稳定劳动力市场，同时使通胀在关税影响消退后得以重新朝着2%的目标下 降。鲍威尔还指出，美国关税政策导致通胀过高。 特朗普表示，经济增长并不意味着通货膨胀，即使出现通货膨胀也没关系，可以减缓通货膨胀。特朗普 还说，降息幅度太小，本可以更大。此前美国总统特朗普多次因美联储货币政策公开批评鲍威尔。 United States Department of Labor 時朗普:降息幅度太小 还能更大 △美国劳工部(资料图) 10日,美联储决策机构联邦公开市场委员会在 会后发表声明称,现有指标表明美国经济活动 一直以温和的速度扩张,今年就业增长放缓, 失业率略有上升,通胀率自年初以来有所上 升,目前仍处于较高水平。经济前景的不确定 性依然较高,近几个月就业面临的下行风险有 所增加。鉴于风险平衡变化,决定将联邦 ...

加拿大央行决议声明：重申如果预测实质化，那利率大致处于"合理的水平"。不确定性偏高，如果前景 改变，央行准备做出反应。维持核心通胀率预期在2.5%附近。预计2026年GDP将适度增长，通胀率将 接近2%这一目标。鉴于GST在一季度结束，短期CPI可能更高。GDP（预测）修订，意味着进入2025年 的产能和需求更加强劲。在贸易敏感性行业，就业形势近期"（变得）更加稳定"。放眼未来，预计（整 体）经济的招聘意图会受抑。关税已经造成破坏，但经济整体上具有韧性。 ...

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 资金难收紧，债市难大涨 固定收益市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗漏 | △ * = li | | --- | 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 08 日 | 齐晟 | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | --- | --- | | | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 杜林 | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 王静颖 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 徐沛翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860525070003 | | | xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 债市难以复刻 2020 年末行情：固定收益市 | ...

摘要 2025年12月，第一财经研究院发布的"第一财经首席经济学家信心指数"为50，稍低于上月，持平于50荣 枯线。经济学家们认为，当前我国经济处于弱复苏状态，未来宏观政策将延续宽松基调，为"十五五"开 局奠定坚实的基础。 毕马威蔡伟认为，总的来看，在稳增长政策发力、外部不确定性缓和的带动下，当前整体经 济处于弱复苏通道。 经济学家们预计11月物价数据将较上月公布数据继续回升，CPI同比预测均值为0.72%，PPI同比预测均 值为-2.05%，他们对固定资产投资累计增速的预测均值为-2.1%，社会消费品零售总额同比增速预测均 值为3.09%，工业增加值同比增速预测均值为5.0%。同时，刚刚公布的进出口数据显示，11月进出口同 比数据均高于上月，贸易顺差上升至1116.8亿美元，符合经济学家们的预期。 兴业银行鲁政委认为，"双11"购物节的提振，叠加餐饮回暖趋势延续，11月社会消费品零售 同比有望回升。 经济学家们预计11月金融数据将较上月有所回升，新增贷款的预测均值为6791亿元、社会融资总量的预 测均值为2.32万亿元，M2同比增速预测均值为8.29%，他们认为11月LPR利率和存准水平调整的可能性 较小。 ...

放眼欧洲一侧，欧元区最新通胀数据略高于外界预期，使得短期内调整政策节奏的紧迫性有所减弱。外界普遍 预计，欧洲方面在12月中旬的重要会议上更可能保持现有安排不变。市场对其已进入相对稳定阶段的预期升 温，在一定程度上对欧元走势形成支撑。 高盛分析师指出，当前通胀若无法显著缓解，存款利率可能直至2026年都将维持在2.0%的水平。 而德意志银行经济学家则持不同观点，他们认为通胀压力仍将持续，预计到2026年底利率可能上调25个基点。 两家机构的分歧，本质反映了对未来通胀路径的不同判断。 欧元/美元短期走势仍受两大经济体政策预期与经济数据交织影响。投资者情绪在"谨慎乐观"与"观望等待"之间 切换，未来方向更可能取决于接下来公布的工业生产、信心指数以及相关会议释放的信号。 欧元/美元在周一亚洲早盘出现小幅走高，报价约在1.1645 附近，整体走势偏稳。 市场关注的核心仍集中在主要经济体的政策预期变化，以及即将公布的经济数据对情绪的影响。 从美元方面来看，外界普遍认为12月中旬的关键会议存在下调政策参数的可能性。当前市场定价倾向于认为小 幅调整的概率较高。参与者普遍把焦点放在会后说明和最新经济预测路径上，希望从中寻找未来 ...

Group 1 - The World Gold Council predicts three scenarios for gold prices by 2026: optimistic, baseline, and pessimistic [1][2] - In the optimistic scenario, gold prices could rise by 15%-30% if economic growth slows, interest rates decline, or global risks increase [1] - The baseline scenario suggests that gold prices will likely exhibit a range-bound volatility, aligning with macroeconomic consensus expectations [2] Group 2 - In the pessimistic scenario, if U.S. economic growth exceeds expectations due to fiscal stimulus, inflation pressures may lead the Federal Reserve to maintain or even raise interest rates, potentially causing gold prices to decline by 5%-20% [2] - Under the pessimistic outlook, gold ETF holdings may continue to see outflows, although some consumers and long-term investors might buy on dips, providing a buffer [2]

印度储备银行（RBI）周五降息25个基点并宣布万亿卢比债券购买计划，在通胀跌至历史低点之际为经济注入流动性。央行行长 Sanjay Malhotra表示，此举旨在应对美国高关税威胁，并支撑卢比——今年亚洲表现最差的货币。 本次利率决议中，印度央行货币政策委员会一致决定将回购利率从5.50%下调至5.25%，这是六个月来首次降息。同时，央行将 在本月购买价值1万亿卢比（110亿美元）的债券，并进行50亿美元的外汇掉期操作。 消息公布后，卢比兑美元一度上涨，但随后回落，从89.78跌至89.92卢比兑1美元，延续了今年下跌5%的疲弱走势。贸易和资本 流动疲软加上美国严厉贸易关税，令卢比本周一度跌破90关口。印度10年期基准国债收益率下行6个基点至6.45%，创8月28日以 来最大降幅。 澳新银行经济学家Dhiraj Nim表示，由于美联储预计将在12月放松政策，此次降息不应过度削弱卢比，因为这将保持两个市场间 的利率差。他认为这可能是最后一次降息，央行今后将主要通过流动性支持经济。 | | 图表 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Group 1 - Eurozone retail sales data for October showed a year-on-year growth of 1.5%, exceeding market expectations of 1.3%, indicating some resilience in consumer demand [1][2] - However, month-on-month retail sales remained flat at 0.0%, suggesting a temporary halt in growth momentum [1] - The internal growth structure revealed a divergence, with food, beverage, and tobacco sales increasing by 0.3% month-on-month, while non-food sales (excluding automotive fuel) decreased by 0.2% [2] Group 2 - The annual growth rate for non-food products (excluding automotive fuel) was 2.1%, significantly higher than the 0.9% for food products, indicating relatively strong discretionary spending [3] - The data reflects a complex picture of the Eurozone consumer market under inflationary pressures and high interest rates, with overall demand not collapsing but growth momentum clearly weakening [3] - European Central Bank (ECB) officials expressed satisfaction with current policy settings, indicating no immediate need for further rate cuts, as inflation appears to be under control [3] Group 3 - In the U.S., initial jobless claims fell to a three-year low of 191,000, suggesting employers are still trying to retain employees despite recent layoffs [4][5] - The four-week moving average of new claims dropped to 214,750, the lowest level since January, indicating limited actual layoffs and easing concerns about a rapidly deteriorating labor market [5] - Despite a recent surge in announced layoffs, the actual number of layoffs remains low, providing some reassurance to market sentiment [5] Group 4 - Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported that U.S. employers announced 71,321 layoffs in November, a 53% decrease from the previous month, but still the highest level for November since 2022 [8] - The total planned layoffs for the first eleven months of the year reached approximately 1.171 million, a 54% increase year-on-year, marking the highest annual total since the pandemic [8] - The contrast between increased layoff plans and a lack of corresponding rises in unemployment claims indicates a "no layoff, no hiring" state in the labor market [9] Group 5 - In Ireland, revised domestic demand grew by 2.3% quarter-on-quarter, driven by an 8.3% surge in investment, despite a slight GDP decline of 0.3% [18] - Hungary announced an 11% increase in the minimum wage to combat economic stagnation and political pressure, which may lead to increased costs for businesses [18] - The ECB reiterated its commitment to maintaining a stable exchange rate and monitoring internal demand, with a focus on achieving inflation targets [19]

申万宏源固收研究 【申万固收|利率】生产强于需求，债市空间仍窄——11月中采PMI点评 原创 阅读全文 ...

Group 1 - Nomura Securities indicates that the US dollar may face significant downward pressure by 2026 due to factors such as portfolio adjustments, rising foreign exchange hedging risks, and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts [2] - UBS economists note that discussions regarding the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate hikes have shifted from "if" to "when," with expectations moving forward significantly due to rising labor costs and domestic demand [2] - Barclays strategists highlight that the current market for US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) does not adequately price in positive inflation risk premiums, suggesting a long position in 10-year breakeven inflation rates as a reasonable medium to long-term strategy [1] Group 2 - Fitch Ratings states that despite rising debt from infrastructure investments, a neutral macro environment, a robust housing market, and a strong labor market will support the stability of Australia's local government finances [3] - Mizuho Securities warns that rising interest rates could significantly increase the debt servicing costs for the UK and Japan, as both countries adjust their debt structures to rely more on short-term borrowing [2] - Nomura analysts suggest that the Bank of Korea may have ended its rate-cutting cycle, with GDP growth expected to reach 2.3% in 2026, driven by improved economic prospects and rising inflation [2]