Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of today's futures main contracts. Index futures are expected to oscillate strongly, gold futures will oscillate with an upward bias, and silver, copper, rebar, iron ore, coking coal, glass, soda ash, and crude oil futures are likely to oscillate strongly [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Outlook - **Index Futures**: IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509 are expected to oscillate strongly on September 3, with specific resistance and support levels provided. For the whole month of September 2025, these contracts are also expected to oscillate strongly with corresponding resistance and support levels [2][17][18]. - **Treasury Futures**: The 10 - year Treasury futures main contract T2512 and the 30 - year Treasury futures main contract TL2512 are likely to oscillate widely on September 3, with resistance and support levels given [2][37][41]. - **Precious Metals Futures**: The gold futures main contract AU2510 is expected to oscillate with an upward bias on September 3 and in September 2025, with resistance and support levels provided. The silver futures main contract AG2510 is likely to oscillate strongly on September 3 and in September 2025, and may hit a new high since listing [2][43][50]. - **Base Metals Futures**: Copper, aluminum, industrial silicon, and polycrystalline silicon futures main contracts are expected to have different trends on September 3 and in September 2025, including strong oscillation, oscillation consolidation, and wide - range oscillation, with corresponding resistance and support levels [3][53][58]. - **Energy and Chemical Futures**: Rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, glass, soda ash, crude oil, PTA, PVC, and methanol futures main contracts are likely to oscillate strongly on September 3, with resistance and support levels provided. The trends in September 2025 vary for different contracts [3][4][6]. - **Agricultural Futures**: Soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil futures main contracts are expected to oscillate strongly on September 3, with resistance and support levels [6]. Macro News and Trading Tips - China and Russia strengthen cooperation in multiple fields, including signing over 20 bilateral cooperation documents and China implementing a visa - free policy for Russia. The central bank's MLF has a net investment of 300 billion yuan, PSL has a net withdrawal of 160.8 billion yuan, and the outright reverse repurchase has a net investment of 300 billion yuan. The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration introduce 4 tax - exemption measures to support the operation and management of state - owned equity and cash income transferred to enrich the social security fund [7]. - Some cities may face the possibility of merger or integration due to single industrial structure. Trump will appeal to the US Supreme Court regarding the global tariff case. The Bank of Japan's deputy governor believes that continued interest - rate hikes are appropriate. The US August ISM manufacturing index is slightly up but still below the boom - bust line, and the eurozone's August CPI rises year - on - year [8][9]. Commodity Futures - Related Information - On September 2, gold futures prices broke through upward, with London spot gold breaking through the $3,500 per ounce mark and COMEX gold futures hitting a new high. COMEX silver futures also rose. Geopolitical risks pushed up oil prices, and LME base metals showed mixed trends [9][10]. Stock Market Information - On September 2, the A - share market adjusted, with most indexes falling. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.45%, and the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.14%. A - share trading volume reached 2.91 trillion yuan. The number of new A - share accounts in August reached 2.6503 million, a significant increase compared to the same period last year. As of September 1, the margin trading balance in the A - share market exceeded the historical peak in 2015 [13][14]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.47% on September 2, and the US and European stock markets also closed down. Southbound funds had a net purchase of HK$9.281 billion [16][17].

当地时间周二（9月2日），英国国债收益率飙升，投资者对英国政府财政状况和经济前景的担忧，让英 国金融市场进入风雨飘摇。同时，英镑兑美元汇率大幅走低，一度跌超1.5%。 而欧元区的通胀重新抬头，可能让欧洲央行在即将到来的议息会议上维持利率不变。 英国长期国债遭到抛售反映出固定收益养老基金等传统买家对这类证券的需求减弱，以及对结构性通胀 上升的担忧。英国债务管理办公室（Debt Management Office）已将此类证券的销售削减至创纪录低 点，并还呼吁进一步削减。 英国资产全线闪崩。 英镑大跌英国国债收益率大涨 在全球国债下行之际，英国30年期国债收益率周二一度升5个基点至5.69%，是1998年以来的最高水 平。10年期英国国债收益率升至4.791%，为近3个月高点。而在外汇市场，英镑对美元大幅走低，一度 跌超1.5%至1.334。股市方面，截至发稿，英国富时100指数跌0.85%，盘中一度跌近1%。 金融市场动荡反映了投资者对首相斯塔默改组内阁的担心。 根据英国首相府1日发布消息，斯塔默宣布两项重要人事任命，旨在强化唐宁街团队，以推进政府在经 济增长、边境安全及国民医疗服务体系复苏等核心施政优先事项。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year Treasury ETF (511090) has reached a record high in both scale and shares, indicating strong investor interest and liquidity in the bond market despite potential challenges ahead [4][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of September 2, 2025, the 30-year Treasury ETF has increased by 0.10%, with the latest price at 120.74 yuan [4]. - The average daily trading volume for the ETF has been 10.593 billion yuan over the past week, with a total trading volume of 5.62 billion yuan on September 2 [4]. - The ETF's latest scale has reached 30.182 billion yuan, marking a new high since its inception [4]. Group 2: Fund Inflows and Investor Sentiment - The 30-year Treasury ETF has seen a net inflow of 252 million yuan recently, with a total of 1.352 billion yuan net inflow over the last five trading days [4]. - Analysts suggest that while the bond market may face headwinds, there are still investment opportunities available [5]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The macroeconomic policy is shifting towards a "fiscal-led, monetary-supported" framework, which may lead to increased volatility in the bond market [5]. - The bond market is expected to enter a phase of central oscillation with increasing volatility, influenced by future fiscal measures and inflation fluctuations [5]. Group 4: Index Tracking - The 30-year Treasury ETF closely tracks the China Bond 30-Year Treasury Index, which consists of publicly issued 30-year treasury bonds [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that persistent inflation in the UK reduces the likelihood of an interest rate cut by the Bank of England within the year, with market expectations for the first 25 basis point cut now pushed to March 2026 [1] - Recent data shows that the overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the UK is expected to reach 4% in September, which aligns with previous forecasts and has led to minimal market reaction [1] - The market's shift in expectations regarding interest rate cuts suggests that discussions around potential cuts will likely be more relevant in 2026 rather than 2025, as indicated by the flattening of the SONIA futures curve [1] Group 2 - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for GBP/USD is currently oscillating between 40.00 and 60.00, indicating a significant contraction in market volatility and a temporary balance between bullish and bearish forces [2] - Key support for GBP/USD is identified at the August 11 low of 1.3400, which is crucial as it coincides with the lower boundary of the current consolidation range; a break below this level could intensify downward pressure [2] - On the upside, the July 1 high near 1.3790 serves as a critical resistance level, and a breakout above this point could open up greater upward potential for the currency pair [2]

Group 1 - France's inflation rate decreased to 0.8% and Spain's to 2.7%, both slightly below expectations by 0.1 percentage points [1] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is satisfied with the overall situation in the Eurozone despite varying inflation pressures in member countries [1] - The ECB is expected to maintain interest rates at 2% for the second consecutive month, with investors no longer fully pricing in further rate cuts this year [1] Group 2 - Bloomberg economists predict that the Eurozone's overall inflation rate will rise from 2% in July to 2.1% in August, driven by base effects from energy prices [2] - France's economic growth is lagging behind peers due to political and fiscal uncertainties, while Spain is performing well as a leading economy in the Eurozone [2] - Preliminary data for August shows a slowdown in service sector inflation from 2.5% in July to 2.1%, with industrial prices down 0.3% and energy prices down 6.2% [2]

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the political interference in the independence of the Federal Reserve, highlighted by the dismissal of board member Lisa Cook, which poses risks to U.S. monetary policy and global financial stability [1][4][8] - Trump's actions are seen as an attempt to reshape the Federal Reserve's governance structure, potentially allowing him to control the majority of the board and influence monetary policy direction [2][3][5] - The legal basis for Cook's dismissal is questionable, as experts argue that the reasons cited do not meet the legal standards for removal, which could lead to significant judicial challenges [2][5][6] Group 2 - The market reaction to the dismissal has been mixed, with short-term interest rates falling while long-term rates rise, indicating investor uncertainty about future monetary policy and inflation risks [6][7] - The potential erosion of the Federal Reserve's independence could undermine the credibility of the U.S. dollar as a global reserve currency, impacting global financial stability [8][9] - Key upcoming events, such as the federal court's ruling on Cook's dismissal and the September FOMC meeting, will be critical in determining the future direction of U.S. monetary policy and the Federal Reserve's governance [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The unprecedented low interest rate environment is the strongest driving force behind the current stock market rally, and understanding the central bank's monetary policy report is crucial for investment in both equity and fixed income markets [1][10]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - The emphasis on "implementing and refining" an appropriately loose monetary policy indicates a focus on structural policies rather than direct quantitative measures, suggesting that the central bank will prioritize the optimization of structural monetary tools rather than further interest rate cuts before the end of the year [13][14]. - The central bank's consideration of raising the price level reasonably implies that if CPI and PPI do not show a trend of rising, there is no need to worry about tightening monetary policy, reinforcing the principle that "if funds are not tight, bond bears will not come" [13]. - The focus on "lowering the cost of bank liabilities" aims to ensure banks' interest margins, indicating a preference for targeted measures like reducing the rates of reverse repos rather than broad-based interest rate cuts [14]. Group 2: Credit and Loan Trends - In the second quarter, large and medium-sized banks continued to increase their market share in loan increments, with large banks' increments being about 40% of the first quarter's, while small rural financial institutions lagged behind [20][21]. - The increase in fiscal deposits by nearly 24% in the second quarter, compared to 17% in the first quarter, is attributed to the large issuance of government and local bonds, which has led to increased deposit accumulation [24]. - Non-bank financial institutions saw a significant increase in deposits, with over 2.2 trillion yuan added in the second quarter, indicating a shift of deposits towards non-bank products [28]. Group 3: Structural Monetary Tools - The balance of structural monetary tools has reached 3.8 trillion yuan, with a notable increase in technology-related re-loans from 300 billion to 800 billion yuan, which is a core reason for the strength of the technology sector [38][40]. - The report highlights a shift in the distribution of new loans over the past decade, moving from real estate and urban investment to a more diversified structure, although the short-term demand for social financing remains insufficient [43][45]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The government has been the main department for financing leverage in the first half of the year, with significant increases in bond issuance, indicating a proactive fiscal stance [54]. - The insurance sector has seen a reduction in premium growth to around 5%, down from over 10% in previous years, which may lead to a shift of funds towards equity and fixed income products [56]. - The central bank's mention of the cultural and chip sectors reflects their importance in the current market, particularly in the context of domestic control amid U.S.-China tensions [62].

Core Viewpoint - Former St. Louis Fed President James Bullard has discussed the Federal Reserve chair position and indicated that interest rates are currently high, with a potential for a 100 basis point cut by 2026 depending on future data [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve must pay attention to maintaining the dollar's status as a reserve currency [1] - U.S. debt reflects spending issues that need to be addressed [1]

Group 1 - The Eurozone private sector expanded at the fastest pace in 15 months, with the composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising from 50.9 in July to 51.1 in August, exceeding analysts' expectations of 50.6 [1][4] - The manufacturing PMI increased to 50.5, marking the first expansion since June 2022, while the service sector showed slight weakening but remained in line with expectations [1][4] - Germany's manufacturing sector is nearing the end of a three-year downturn, indicating a potential recovery in the Eurozone economy [1][4] Group 2 - Despite challenges such as US tariffs and general uncertainty, businesses across the Eurozone are performing relatively well, as noted by economists [4] - The Euro to US dollar exchange rate stabilized at 1.1654, while German 10-year bond yields rose by 2 basis points to 2.73%, reflecting market confidence [4] - The Eurozone's economy unexpectedly grew by 0.1% in the second quarter, although this was significantly lower than the previous quarter's growth of 0.6% [4] Group 3 - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain the deposit rate at 2% during the September meeting, following a pause in rate changes after eight consecutive cuts [5] - The UK composite PMI rose to 53 in August, outperforming market expectations, while the US composite PMI data is anticipated to remain above 50 [5]

Group 1 - International silver prices rose to $37.89 per ounce, up 1.41%, with a daily high of $37.93 and a low of $36.95, indicating a volatile market influenced by rising consumer prices due to tariff measures [1] - As of August 20, 2025, silver ETF holdings decreased to 15,305.76 tons, down by 33.90 tons from the previous day, reflecting a bearish sentiment in the market [2] - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) has risen to around 3%, with tariffs expected to further increase consumer prices, although the Federal Reserve views these tariff impacts as one-time adjustments [2][3] Group 2 - The current economic environment shows that inflation rates have exceeded the 2% target, with price pressures likely to increase in the coming months due to higher tariff costs being passed on by businesses [3] - The labor market is experiencing a slowdown in new population growth, which may limit the expected downward pressure on prices, despite a stable unemployment rate [3] - The silver market is currently in a weak downward trend, with support levels at $36.5 and resistance levels at $37.60 and $37.85, indicating potential future price movements [4]