Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - Currently, the game between bears and bulls in the lithium carbonate market is intensifying, with increasing trading volume and open interest. Bears believe that high ore inventory and collapsing costs are negative factors, while bulls expect a phased gap and inventory depletion due to reduced imports and slightly increased demand in June. From a capital perspective, the weakening basis in June, lower long - term contract prices than the market price, and hedging profits from processing externally purchased ore are expected to increase the willingness of industrial short - hedging on the market. - The price of the 2507 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 55,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton. - The positive spread in the inter - period trading has shrunk this week. With the market price at a premium to the long - term contract benchmark price, reverse arbitrage is expected to be the main strategy later, but the reverse arbitrage space is limited due to the inventory depletion pattern in June. - It is recommended to conduct short - hedging at the upper end of the price range [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - This week, the main contract of lithium carbonate gradually shifted from 07 to 09. The 2507 contract closed at 60,440 yuan/ton, up 1,580 yuan/ton week - on - week; the 2509 contract closed at 60,920 yuan/ton, up 1,820 yuan/ton week - on - week; the spot price fell 700 yuan/ton week - on - week to 60,200 yuan/ton. The SMM basis (2507 contract) weakened by 2,280 yuan/ton to - 240 yuan/ton, and the Fubao trader's premium/discount quote was + 480 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton week - on - week. The spread between the 2507 - 2509 contracts was - 480 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan/ton month - on - month [1]. 2. Lithium Salt Upstream Supply - End - Lithium Ore - Supply: The price of spodumene concentrate dropped to 626 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 50 US dollars/ton, and the cost continued to decline. Some planned shutdown enterprises postponed their shutdowns, and the domestic lithium carbonate smelting output increased this week, with the operating rates of spodumene, mica, and salt - lake enterprises rising. Affected by the cancellation of the floor price, the agreement volume between Chilean lithium salt plants and downstream in May decreased. In May, the total export of lithium carbonate from Chile was 14,141 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 35.04% and a year - on - year decrease of 37%. Among them, the export to China was 9,655 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 37.89%, showing a phased decrease in imports. This week, the lithium carbonate output was 17,471 tons, an increase of 891 tons from last week, a growth rate of 5.37% [2]. 3. Lithium Salt Mid - Stream Consumption - End - Lithium Salt Products - Demand: Trump plans to cancel new energy vehicle subsidies. The domestic sales of new energy vehicles were 245,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 11.87%. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers issued an initiative to maintain a fair competition order and promote the healthy development of the industry, increasing penalties for illegal enterprises and guiding enterprises to break through with technological innovation. According to the production plan in June, the overall production of downstream cathode and battery enterprises increased slightly month - on - month. Due to the low profit of cathode materials, cathode material enterprises were in the active inventory reduction state. This week, the basis of lithium carbonate weakened. After a slight rebound in lithium prices, the trading procurement volume decreased, and downstream enterprises maintained rigid procurement [2]. - Inventory: The inventory is at a historical high, and the marginal change tends to be stable. The lithium carbonate inventory was 132,432 tons, a growth rate of 0.65%. The number of futures warehouse receipts decreased to 33,000 tons. The cathode material inventory continued to be depleted [3]. 4. Lithium Salt Downstream Consumption - End - Lithium Batteries and Materials - The report provides multiple charts related to the downstream consumption of lithium salts, including the apparent consumption of lithium carbonate in China, inventory available days, production and operating rates of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and various types of power lithium batteries, as well as the import and export volume of ternary materials and the installed capacity of lithium batteries in China [29][30][31]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On June 4, the coke main contract closed at 1,367.5 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 5.72%. The coke supply - demand pattern has no significant change, but uncertainties on the coking coal supply side such as environmental protection and imports increase, leading to intensified long - short game in the market and significant rise in the volatility of coking coal and coke futures. The focus of market game lies in the coking coal supply side. It is recommended to closely monitor subsequent production and Mongolian coal imports, and adopt a cautious wait - and - see approach in the short term. If the expectation of coking coal supply contraction is falsified, coke is expected to return to a weak pattern [5][34]. - On June 4, the coking coal 2509 contract recorded a 7.19% increase. Previously, the price continued to decline due to medium - and long - term bearish themes such as "loose supply expectation" and "concerns about black terminal demand". Recently, disturbances on the coking coal supply side have increased. On one hand, China entered the safety production month in June, and safety and environmental protection issues have attracted market attention. On the other hand, the decline in domestic coal prices has put some pressure on Mongolian coal imports. The supply uncertainty of coking coal increases, and the long - short game in the futures market intensifies, resulting in a sharp rebound of the main contract at a low level. However, the supply problem still needs to be verified by actual data. If the supply concerns are falsified, coking coal is expected to remain at a low level in the medium and long term. It is recommended to be cautious and wait - and - see recently and pay attention to the supply side [6][35]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - In 2025, China plans to start the renovation of 25,000 old urban residential areas. From January to April, 5,679 old urban residential areas started renovation. In Hebei, Chongqing, Liaoning, Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Hubei, the start - up rates exceeded 50% [8]. - On June 4, the coking coal price in Jinzhong market decreased by 20 yuan/ton, with the ex - factory price of medium - sulfur main coking coal being 980 yuan/ton [9]. Spot Market - For coke, the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port was 1,340 yuan/ton, with no change week - on - week, month - on - month. Compared with the end of last year, it decreased by 20.71%, and compared with the same period, it decreased by 34.31%. The ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade coke at Qingdao Port was 1,180 yuan/ton, down 4.07% week - on - week, 3.28% month - on - month, 27.16% compared with the end of last year, and 41.29% compared with the same period [10]. - For coking coal, the price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port was 920 yuan/ton, down 3.16% week - on - week, with no change month - on - month, 22.03% lower than the end of last year, and 43.56% lower than the same period. The price of Australian - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,260 yuan/ton, down 1.56% week - on - week, 0.79% month - on - month, 15.44% lower than the end of last year, and 42.20% lower than the same period. The price of Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,290 yuan/ton, down 2.27% week - on - week, with no change month - on - month, 15.69% lower than the end of last year, and 40.00% lower than the same period [10]. Futures Market - On June 4, the closing price of the coke main contract was 1,367.5 yuan/ton, with an increase of 5.72%, the highest price was 1,375.0 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,297.0 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 46,507, and the position decreased by 1,379 compared with the previous trading day [13]. - The coking coal 2509 contract increased by 7.19%, with the closing price at 768.0 yuan/ton, the highest price at 772.5 yuan/ton, and the lowest price at 721.0 yuan/ton [13]. Relevant Charts - The report presents multiple charts related to coke and coking coal inventories (including independent coking plants, steel mills, ports), Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, domestic steel mill production, washing plant production, and coking plant operation [14][27][31]. Market Outlook - The analysis and suggestions for coke and coking coal are consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing the uncertainty of coking coal supply and the need for cautious observation [5][6][34][35].

Group 1 - The article discusses the ongoing fluctuations in gold prices, highlighting a return to previous levels, indicating a volatile market environment [1] - It emphasizes the importance of short-term traders adapting their strategies to switch between bullish and bearish trends effectively [1] - The TTPS signal model is introduced as a tool to help identify conversion opportunities in trading [1]

Group 1: Market Reactions - European stocks surged due to trade negotiation developments, with Germany's DAX index rising by 1.67% and France's CAC40 increasing by 1.21% [3] - The U.S. stock market was closed for Memorial Day, indicating a pause in trading activity [3] - The oil market is experiencing volatility, with Brent crude oil closing at $64.81, amid OPEC+ plans to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day [5] Group 2: Trade Negotiations - The U.S. is pressuring the EU to lower tariffs unilaterally, threatening a 20% punitive tariff if negotiations fail [3] - The EU is countering with a "cooperation agreement" aimed at standard recognition and trade simplification [3] - The EU has prepared a $100 billion retaliation list if trade talks collapse, posing risks to sectors like automotive and agriculture [3] Group 3: Geopolitical Tensions - The situation between Russia and Ukraine remains tense, with recent drone attacks and continued support for Ukraine from Germany [3] - The potential for escalating geopolitical risks could lead to increased interest in safe-haven assets like gold and defense stocks [3] Group 4: Cryptocurrency Developments - Trump's media group plans to raise $3 billion to purchase Bitcoin, pushing its price to $110,000 [4] - This move raises concerns about potential conflicts of interest, as Trump promotes the U.S. as a cryptocurrency hub while investing in it [4][5] - The SEC's scrutiny could lead to significant repercussions for the cryptocurrency market [5] Group 5: Investment Strategies - The current market environment is likened to a high-stakes gamble, with opportunities in technology growth and cryptocurrency-related ETFs for risk-tolerant investors [5] - For conservative investors, gold ETFs are suggested as a more reliable option given the current geopolitical climate [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming expiration of gold options and the increasing volatility in gold trading, highlighting the need for strategic short-term positioning in the market [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The expiration date of gold options is approaching, which typically leads to heightened trading activity and volatility in the gold market [1] - There is a noted inversion in the spot-futures price spread for gold, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment and trading strategies [1] Group 2: Trading Strategies - The article emphasizes the importance of short-term strategies for traders to navigate the intensified long and short positions in the gold market [1] - Recommendations for traders include monitoring market trends closely and adjusting positions accordingly to capitalize on the current volatility [1]

作者：A股君 数据显示，买卖双方前五席位合计交易金额差异显著，买入前五合计6327.47万元，而卖出前五合计 8025.92万元，呈现净流出态势。东方财富证券旗下营业部在买卖双方共计出现7次，涉及4家不同营业 部，其中拉萨团结路第一证券营业部同时出现在买卖双方前五名。 风险提示：证券市场存在波动风险，历史数据不代表未来表现，投资者需审慎决策。本文所涉数据来源 于公开信息，不构成任何投资建议。 本文源自：金融界 2025年5月26日盘后数据显示，南京港因当日价格跌幅偏离值达到7%登上龙虎榜。值得关注的是，东方 财富证券旗下多家营业部在买卖双方席位中同时现身，形成多空博弈格局。 从买方阵营观察，国信证券浙江互联网分公司以1330.50万元买入额位居榜首，该营业部近期三个月上 榜个股后续三个交易日上涨概率为30.88%。紧随其后的东方财富证券拉萨东环路第二证券营业部买入 1297.65万元，该席位近三个月上榜次数达890次，展现出高频交易特征。值得注意的是，东方财富证券 旗下三家拉萨地区营业部分别占据第三至第五买入席位，三席位合计买入金额达3699.32万元，形成明 显的协同交易态势。 卖方席位同样呈现集中特征，东 ...

市场分析 2025-05-22，工业硅期货价格偏弱震荡低位震荡，主力合约2507开于7840元/吨，最后收于7880元/吨，较前一日结 算变化（-15）元/吨，变化（-0.19）%。截止收盘，2505主力合约持仓183690手，2025-05-23仓单总数为65298手， 较前一日变化-355手。 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-23 多晶硅多空博弈仍较大，盘面小幅反弹 工业硅： 供应端：工业硅现货价格回落。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在8500-8800（-50）元/吨；421#硅在9300-9700 （-100）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8000-8100（-50）元/吨，99硅价格在8000-8100（-50）元/吨。根据SMM调研，工 业硅原料电极价格再次承压下调，成本方面，自5月份以来，电极原料价格持续下行，降幅约700-1000元/吨。截至 5月22日，普通功率炭电极直径960-1100mm报价6500-6700元/吨，单周下调800元/吨，直径1272mm报价6900-7100 元/吨，下调900元/吨，普通功率石墨电极，直径960-1100mm、 1272mm、 1320mm ...

多空博弈白热化，黄金现关键分水岭？金十研究员郝仁正在直播分析，点击进入直播间 相关链接 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The copper market is in a narrow - range fluctuation. The Fed's interest - rate cut sentiment is rising but still in a tug - of - war. Under the game between bulls and bears, the market is oscillating, with limited upside and downside space. It may face short - term pressure, but the medium - to - long - term trend is bullish [1]. - The supply side remains tight, with a tight situation in the mining end and high costs for smelters. Although copper production has increased against the trend, the cost pressure on smelters is obvious. The demand side shows resilience, but there may be a marginal weakening in May compared to April [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper market opened lower and moved lower today, under pressure. The US April PPI unexpectedly dropped by 0.5% month - on - month, the largest decline in five years. The supply side is tight, and the smelter cost is high. The downstream is resistant to high prices. The demand in May may be marginally weaker than in April. The market is in a multi - empty game and is likely to be in a narrow - range oscillation [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Opened high, moved low, and closed down. The closing price was 78140. The number of long orders of the top twenty decreased by 3014 to 124860 hands, and the number of short orders decreased by 5012 to 112073 hands. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was 425 yuan/ton, and in South China was 400 yuan/ton. On May 14, 2025, the LME official price was 9523 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was 14.5 US dollars/ton [4]. Supply Side - As of May 9, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 43.6 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.37 cents/pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 63,200 tons, an increase of 2700 tons from the previous period. As of May 12, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 71,300 tons, a decrease of 14,500 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 184,700 tons, a slight decrease of 925 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 168,600 short tons, an increase of 1928 short tons from the previous period [9].

总体而言，黄金市场的多空博弈本质是短期交易逻辑与长期价值逻辑的角力。当前回调更多是技术性修正而非趋势逆转，投资者需区分"价格波动"与"价值 重估"的差异，在美元霸权松动、全球政经格局重构的背景下，重视黄金在资产组合中对冲通胀与风险的价值。 近期黄金价格经历了显著的调整，中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展是重要原因之一。会谈达成大幅削减加征关税等共识，缓解了市场对全球经济衰退的担 忧，风险资产吸引力回升，黄金避险需求骤降，资金从黄金市场流向股市等风险资产。同时，美联储5月议息会议维持利率不变，强调通胀粘性及经济韧 性，市场对年内降息预期下调，美元指数一度逼近100关口，对黄金形成压制。此外，前期金价累计涨幅大，技术指标进入超买区域，存在获利盘回吐需 求，5月12日金价单日跌幅达2.73%，触发多头平仓潮。 不过，黄金价格仍有长期支撑逻辑。首先，全球央行购金趋势持续，2025年一季度全球央行黄金储备增加244吨，连续第16年净购金，中国、印度等新兴市 场央行购金行为显著，反映出美元信用体系面临挑战，黄金货币属性被重新定价。其次，尽管短期地缘风险缓和，但美国债务上限危机、全球通胀反复、股 市波动加剧等隐患仍在，黄金作为 ...