作者：A股君 数据显示，买卖双方前五席位合计交易金额差异显著，买入前五合计6327.47万元，而卖出前五合计 8025.92万元，呈现净流出态势。东方财富证券旗下营业部在买卖双方共计出现7次，涉及4家不同营业 部，其中拉萨团结路第一证券营业部同时出现在买卖双方前五名。 风险提示：证券市场存在波动风险，历史数据不代表未来表现，投资者需审慎决策。本文所涉数据来源 于公开信息，不构成任何投资建议。 本文源自：金融界 2025年5月26日盘后数据显示，南京港因当日价格跌幅偏离值达到7%登上龙虎榜。值得关注的是，东方 财富证券旗下多家营业部在买卖双方席位中同时现身，形成多空博弈格局。 从买方阵营观察，国信证券浙江互联网分公司以1330.50万元买入额位居榜首，该营业部近期三个月上 榜个股后续三个交易日上涨概率为30.88%。紧随其后的东方财富证券拉萨东环路第二证券营业部买入 1297.65万元，该席位近三个月上榜次数达890次，展现出高频交易特征。值得注意的是，东方财富证券 旗下三家拉萨地区营业部分别占据第三至第五买入席位，三席位合计买入金额达3699.32万元，形成明 显的协同交易态势。 卖方席位同样呈现集中特征，东 ...

黄金日内多空博弈加剧！日内反弹超50美金，多头还能上车？短线如何做好布局？立即观看超V推荐官 Jason的讲解，直播间可领取超V限时优惠>>> 相关链接 ...

黄金日内多空博弈加剧！亚盘反弹受阻，多空资金转换！短线如何做好布局？立即观看超V推荐官Jason 的讲解，直播间可领取超V9.9元体验包>>> 相关链接 ...

黄金多空博弈鹿死谁手？3260决定多空生死？新的趋势何时开启？金十研究员Steven正在直播，点击进 入直播间观看>> 相关链接 ...

"一买就跌，一跌就割，一割就涨..."这魔咒般的循环，正在吞噬多少投资者的血汗钱？当方汇银高喊"回落做多"时，杨呈发却坚持"逢高做空"，究竟谁在说 谎？黄金市场这场多空博弈的真相，远比表面看到的更残酷。 那些在740点跟风买入积存金的投资者，现在正面临735新低的煎熬。方汇银说的"长期持有"与杨呈发警告的"C浪下跌"，让普通投资者陷入认知撕裂。调查 显示，近期黄金投资者中83%的亏损来自频繁交易，这正是分析师们最乐见的"手续费盛宴"。 暴跌元凶：美联储与华尔街的"双簧戏" 揭开黄金短期回调的面纱，三大黑手正在操控市场：美联储的降息预期管理、华尔街机构的集体调仓、算法交易的推波助澜。穆迪突然下调美国评级这 出"苦肉计"，让黄金单日反弹2%，却难掩3500点以来的11%暴跌真相。 数据显示，COMEX黄金非商业净多头头寸在4月达到38.2万手的历史峰值，这意味着每1%的价格波动都会引发数十亿美元的踩踏。就像2020年原油宝事件 的重演，当散户跟着方汇银"抄底"时，华尔街正在杨呈发看空的3250点悄悄平仓。 散户困局：你正在成为"被收割的韭菜" 多空对决：两位大师的生死博弈 当你的手机同时弹出方汇银的"3210支撑 ...

多空博弈白热化，黄金现关键分水岭？金十研究员郝仁正在直播分析，点击进入直播间 相关链接 ...

制作日期：2025 年 5 月 16 日 【策略分析】 沪铜今日低开低走震荡承压。美国 4 月 PPI 同比上涨 2.4%低于预期，环比-0.5%， 降幅创下五年来最大。美国 4 月 PPI 意外大幅下降 0.5%，创五年来最大降幅。基本面情 况来看，供应端偏紧格局依然显现，矿端偏紧格局为市场一致预期，同时冶炼厂成本偏 高。截止 5 月 9 日，现货粗炼费(TC)-43.6 美元/干吨,现货精炼费(RC)-4.37 美分/磅， 冶炼厂加工费继续扩大负值，硫酸利润弥补少量亏损，但冶炼厂成本压力明显，但铜产 量仍逆势上涨。美铜库存大幅度拉升，导致其他地区供应偏紧显现，目前关税不确定性 存在，美国虹吸铜仍在继续，国内交易所显性库存连续去化，但去化幅度有所收窄。需 求方面，下游对高价有抵触心理。4 月线缆企业开工率达 86.3%，环比+3.2%，5 月订单 预计环比增长 8-10%，下游需求仍显韧性，关税政策缓和叠加国内增量政策，市场需求 有所提振，但五月环比四月需求或边际有走弱。综合来看，美联储降息情绪升温但依然 在拉锯战中，多空博弈下市场偏震荡，上下空间较为有限，短期或承压，中长期仍是偏 多格局。 投资有风险，入 ...

总体而言，黄金市场的多空博弈本质是短期交易逻辑与长期价值逻辑的角力。当前回调更多是技术性修正而非趋势逆转，投资者需区分"价格波动"与"价值 重估"的差异，在美元霸权松动、全球政经格局重构的背景下，重视黄金在资产组合中对冲通胀与风险的价值。 近期黄金价格经历了显著的调整，中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展是重要原因之一。会谈达成大幅削减加征关税等共识，缓解了市场对全球经济衰退的担 忧，风险资产吸引力回升，黄金避险需求骤降，资金从黄金市场流向股市等风险资产。同时，美联储5月议息会议维持利率不变，强调通胀粘性及经济韧 性，市场对年内降息预期下调，美元指数一度逼近100关口，对黄金形成压制。此外，前期金价累计涨幅大，技术指标进入超买区域，存在获利盘回吐需 求，5月12日金价单日跌幅达2.73%，触发多头平仓潮。 不过，黄金价格仍有长期支撑逻辑。首先，全球央行购金趋势持续，2025年一季度全球央行黄金储备增加244吨，连续第16年净购金，中国、印度等新兴市 场央行购金行为显著，反映出美元信用体系面临挑战，黄金货币属性被重新定价。其次，尽管短期地缘风险缓和，但美国债务上限危机、全球通胀反复、股 市波动加剧等隐患仍在，黄金作为 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 5 月 15 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 多空博弈，煤焦震荡调整 核心观点 焦炭：5 月 15 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1472 元/吨，日内录得 0.44%的涨 幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 4.93 万手，较前一交易日仓差为-800 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级平仓价最新报价为 1440 元/吨，周环比 持平，折合期货仓单成本约 1583 元/吨。中美关税矛盾迎来转机，带动焦 炭期货低位小幅反弹。目前，焦炭基本面格局变化不大，供需维持高位， 短期需求支撑良好，不过需求端增速已开始下滑， ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The fundamental outlook for lithium carbonate remains bearish, with the potential for new lows in lithium prices. Although some smelters have cut or halted production due to the rapid decline in lithium prices, the marginal change in domestic supply is uncertain. Imported resources are expected to increase, and upstream production is expected to increase while costs decrease. There is no expected increase in demand, as the weak trend in terminal consumption is emerging, and the new replacement policy's ability to drive potential consumption is waning, which may suppress downstream purchasing power. The short - term decline in prices may be limited, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [3][13] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - From May 6 to May 9, 2025, the prices of imported lithium raw ore, imported and domestic lithium concentrates, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide all decreased. The exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB increased by 0.40%. The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 2,807 tons (-2.97%). The price of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 2.75%, while the prices of cobalt - lithium oxide and ternary materials remained unchanged [5] Market Analysis and Outlook Last Week's Market Analysis - As of May 12, 2025, the total warehouse receipt scale on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 36,351 tons, and the latest matching transaction price was 63,820 yuan/ton. The open interest of the main contract 2507 was 289,400 lots. As of May 9, the weekly production of lithium carbonate was 16,048 tons, a decrease of 128 tons from the previous period. Some hard - rock lithium extraction plants have cut or halted production, and the increase in production from the resumption of maintenance in May may be limited. Attention should be paid to the progress of salt - lake production [7] - In March, the import volume of lithium carbonate was about 18,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 47% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.8%. The import volume from Chile was 12,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 67.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 22%. The import volume from Argentina was 4,646 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year increase of 86.3%. The increase in lithium salt shipped from Chile in March may push up the domestic supply scale in May. In March, the import volume of lithium ore was about 534,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.8% [8][9] - In terms of downstream cathode materials, as of May 9, the production of lithium iron phosphate was about 63,442 tons, with an operating rate of 58.6% (a decrease of 1.14 percentage points from the previous period), and the inventory was 37,620 tons (a decrease of 535 tons from the previous period). The production of ternary materials was about 14,555 tons, with an operating rate of 40.0% (a decrease of 5.84 percentage points from the previous period), and the inventory was 13,930 tons (an increase of 205 tons from the previous period). The prices of ternary materials declined slightly, while the prices of lithium iron phosphate decreased slightly. Although the cathode material production schedule in May continued to expand, the terminal consumption was weak, and the cathode materials still faced over - capacity pressure [9][10] - In the new energy vehicle market, from April 1 - 30, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the country were 922,000, a year - on - year increase of 37% and a month - on - month decrease of 7%. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market was 52.3%. The new energy consumption growth rate showed a pulsed pattern, and the potential consumption driven by policies was waning. The growth rate may decline significantly in the future [11] - As of May 9, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 91,762 tons, a decrease of about 2,807 tons from the previous period. The factory inventory increased by 21 tons, and the market inventory decreased by 2,828 tons. The social inventory decreased, but downstream purchasing did not pick up, and there was still strong wait - and - see sentiment. If prices stabilize, downstream may have a strong restocking expectation [12] This Week's Outlook - The fundamental outlook remains bearish, and the bearish sentiment persists. Although the short - term decline may be limited due to the strong resistance around 63,000 yuan, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [13] Industry News - During the "May Day" holiday in 2025, the national consumer market was prosperous. The subsidy application volume for automobile trade - ins exceeded 3 million. The sales of home appliances, automobiles, and communication equipment monitored by the Ministry of Commerce increased year - on - year. The service consumption continued to heat up [14] - On May 7, the General Office of the Guangdong Provincial People's Government issued a notice to encourage Guangzhou and Shenzhen to further relax vehicle purchase restrictions [14] Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends of lithium carbonate futures, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, imported lithium concentrates, and the production and supply structure of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and related battery products [16][18][21][24][27]