Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply-demand pattern in the feed and aquaculture industry is complex, with different products facing various short - term, medium - term, and long - term supply and demand situations, resulting in different price trends and investment strategies [1][2][4][8][9]. Summary by Product 1. Pig - **Price Situation**: On June 11, the spot prices in Liaoning, Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong were 13.9 - 14.2 yuan/kg, 13.8 - 14.4 yuan/kg, 13.8 - 14 yuan/kg, and 15 - 15.4 yuan/kg respectively, with prices in Liaoning rising and those in other regions remaining stable [1]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: In the short term, the supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged. There is still significant pressure on pig slaughter in June, and the seasonal demand off - season is emerging. In the long term, the supply from June to September is expected to increase, and the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is still high [1]. - **Strategy**: The futures market is in a state of discount. In the short term, it will fluctuate at a low level. It is advisable to short at the resistance level after a rebound [1]. 2. Egg - **Price Situation**: On June 11, the prices in Shandong Dezhou and Beijing were 2.5 yuan/jin and 2.78 yuan/jin respectively, both showing a decline [2]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: In the short term, the demand is seasonally weakening, and the supply is still relatively sufficient. In the medium term, the supply is expected to increase in the future. In the long term, the supply pressure may ease in the fourth quarter [2]. - **Strategy**: Temporarily observe the 07 contract. For the 08 and 09 contracts, take a bearish view and short at high levels after a rebound. Look for long opportunities for the 10 contract at low levels [2]. 3. Oil - **Price Situation**: On June 10, the US soybean oil main contract rose, the Malaysian palm oil main contract fell, and domestic palm oil and soybean oil prices mostly declined while rapeseed oil prices rose [4]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The fundamentals of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are all mixed. Palm oil has limited upside potential due to seasonal production increases. Soybean oil is under supply pressure but has some support. Rapeseed oil has short - term supply pressure but may see inventory reduction in the long term [5][6][7]. - **Strategy**: The 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oil will fluctuate in the short term. Consider the oil - meal ratio shrinking strategy [8]. 4. Soybean Meal - **Price Situation**: On June 10, the US soybean 07 contract rose, and the domestic soybean meal futures price also increased [8]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: In the short term, the US soybean price is strong due to weather factors, while the domestic supply is increasing. In the long term, the cost increase and weather factors will drive the price to rise steadily [8]. - **Strategy**: Go long on the M2509 contract at low levels and hold existing long positions [8]. 5. Corn - **Price Situation**: On June 10, the new corn purchase price in Jinzhou Port rose, and the price in Shandong Weifang remained stable [9]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: In the short term, the supply - demand game intensifies, and the price has support. In the long term, the supply - demand situation tightens, but the price increase is limited by substitutes [9]. - **Strategy**: Take a bullish view overall. For the 07 contract, go long at the lower end of the range. Consider the 7 - 9 positive spread arbitrage [9]. 6. Today's Futures Market Overview - The table shows the price changes of various futures and spot products such as CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, CBOT corn, etc. from the previous trading day [10].

饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 5 月 29 日辽宁现货 14.1-14.6 元/公斤，较上一日稳定；河南 14.4-14.8 元/ 公斤，较上一日稳定；四川 14.2-14.5 元/公斤，较上一日稳定；广东 15- 15.6 元/公斤，较上一日稳定，今日早间全国生猪价格稳定为主。5 月中下 旬养殖端加快出栏节奏，生猪出栏体重高位回落，供应压力释放，月底月末 养殖端或惜售，且局部地区调运政策影响，市场挺价情绪增强，低位二次育 肥滚动进场仍存。需求端，临近端午节备货需求增加，不过猪肉消费淡季， 且屠企利润仍亏损，需求增量有限，短期供需继续博弈，猪价低位存支撑， 震荡加剧，关注企业出栏节奏、二育进出情况、体重变化。中长期来看，能 繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月缓增，生产性能提升， 5-9 月供应呈增加态 势，根据仔猪数据，2024 年 11-2025 年 2 月仔猪同比增加，二季度出栏压 力仍大，叠加生猪体重偏高，而上半年消费淡季，在供强需弱格局下，猪价 仍有下跌风险，关注二育介入造成供应后移、冻品出入库以及饲料价格波动 对价格的扰动；2024 年 12 月开始，生猪产能有所去化，但行业有利润， 去 ...

Group 1: Energy - International oil prices closed slightly lower overnight, with the Brent 07 contract down 0.8%. The market driver may shift to the medium - term logic. After the US - Iran nuclear talks on Friday, the focus may return to supply - demand. With inventory accumulation and OPEC+ production increase, oil prices may fluctuate weakly around the May 31 OPEC+ meeting [2] - Precious metals fell overnight. Gold is still bullish in the long - term, but currently in a volatile adjustment. Maintain the idea of buying on dips [3] - High - sulfur fuel oil's FU cracking spread is expected to oscillate at a high level. Low - sulfur fuel oil's unilateral trend follows crude oil, with weak supply - demand guidance [21] - In June, domestic asphalt refineries plan to produce 231 million tons, a 14.4% year - on - year increase. Demand shows seasonal improvement but is still lower year - on - year. The BU cracking spread is under pressure [22] - Overseas LPG supply is abundant and weakening. Domestic terminals have high inventory, and the short - term fundamentals have limited improvement power. The market runs weakly [23] Group 2: Metals - Overnight, Lun copper oscillated slightly. LME inventory continued to decline. Hold short positions in the second - half - year contracts [4] - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum rose slightly. The market is in a strong - reality situation. Test the resistance at 20300 yuan. Consider selling on rallies if it breaks through [5] - Guinea's alumina mine production impact expansion is unlikely. Spot is tight in the short - term, but the long - term is pessimistic. Don't chase short positions [6] - SMM 0 zinc is at 22,730 yuan/ton. With the end of the peak season, zinc is mainly for short - allocation [7] - Shanghai lead is running weakly. Keep an eye on consumption performance in the future [8] - Nickel and stainless steel markets are weak. Nickel iron inventory increased by 900 tons, and pure nickel inventory decreased by 2,000 tons. Consider short - entry [9] - Tin prices oscillated lower. Continue the short - allocation idea [10] - Lithium carbonate prices rebounded. The market is waiting for supply - demand improvement. Short - sellers should take profit opportunistically [11] - Industrial silicon futures prices continued to decline. Supply pressure accumulates, and demand is weak. Silicon prices are expected to decline [12] - Polysilicon prices rebounded to above the cost line. In June, supply is expected to increase, and prices may run weakly [13] - Steel prices continued to decline overnight. In the off - season, demand is weak, and supply pressure is high. The market is bearish [14] - Iron ore prices oscillated weakly. Supply is in a seasonally strong stage, and demand is in the off - season. Prices may oscillate weakly [15] - Coke prices rebounded slightly after hitting the bottom. Carbon supply is abundant, and pay attention to the negative feedback [16] - Coking coal prices rebounded slightly after hitting the bottom. Supply is abundant, and don't be overly bearish [17] - Manganese silicon prices continued to decline. The fundamentals have slightly improved. Pay attention to the impact of tariffs [18] - Ferrosilicon prices oscillated narrowly. Demand is okay, and prices are still weak due to the black market [19] Group 3: Chemicals - Styrene supply increases, and inventory may rise slightly. Downstream demand is weak [26] - Polypropylene and polyethylene markets are weak. Supply and demand support is limited [27] - PVC prices continue to weaken. Supply is high, and demand is weak. Caustic soda is under pressure at high levels [28] - PX supply increases, and demand is expected to be low. PTA is in de - stocking. There is pressure on supply increase and demand weakening in the long - term [29] - Ethylene glycol's near - term supply - demand is good, but there will be pressure after June [30] - Short - fiber prices follow raw materials and oscillate weakly. Bottle - chip production is increasing, and consider short - term processing margin repair [31] - Glass prices are weak. Inventory pressure is high, and supply is volatile. Be cautious [32] - Natural rubber supply is increasing, and demand is slightly decreasing. Synthetic rubber supply is decreasing, and inventory is increasing [33] - Urea futures lack upward momentum. The market oscillates weakly in the short - term [24] - Methanol supply is expected to increase significantly. The market runs weakly, and pay attention to the macro impact [25] Group 4: Agricultural Products - Domestic soybean meal prices are generally falling. Supply is loose, and there is no continuous upward driver [34] - Domestic soybean oil and palm oil prices oscillate. Supply is increasing, and they follow US soybean prices [35] - Rapeseed meal and oil are recommended to be long - biased. Rapeseed meal may be stronger [36] - Domestic soybeans oscillate. Import supply is abundant from May to July, and weather affects prices [37] - Corn prices may oscillate weakly. Supply is increasing, and pay attention to inventory changes [38] - Live pig futures oscillate weakly. Supply is expected to increase in the medium - long term [39] - Egg futures fall sharply, and spot prices rebound. Egg prices may decline after the Dragon Boat Festival [40] - Cotton prices are affected by US - China relations. Inventory is decreasing, and consider option strategies [41] - Sugar prices are expected to oscillate. Brazilian production is the focus, and domestic supply and demand are stable [42] - Apple prices are weak. Market focuses on new - season production estimates [43] - Wood prices are weak. Supply has some positive factors, but demand is in the off - season [44] - Pulp prices fall. Inventory is still high, and demand is weak. Consider buying on dips [45] Group 5: Others - The CCFI (European Line) may be at the end of the decline. The spot price is close to the central level. Pay attention to the peak - season price increase [20] - A - shares oscillated lower. With overseas risk preference rising, A - shares may oscillate more evenly in the short - term [46] - Treasury bond futures oscillate weakly. Directional strategies may not break through, and curve steepening needs data support [47]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - China's April manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a return to contraction territory[4] - The production index fell to 49.8%, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points, while the new orders index declined to 49.2%, down 2.6 percentage points[10] - New export orders plummeted to 44.7%, a significant drop of 4.3 percentage points, reflecting weakened external demand[10] Group 2: Economic Factors and Trends - Seasonal factors and external environment changes contributed to the decline in manufacturing PMI, with April historically showing negative month-on-month growth since 2016[6] - Price indices for major raw materials and factory output remained below the critical level, with the former at 47.0% and the latter at 44.8%, indicating ongoing supply-demand imbalances[15] - High-tech manufacturing PMI stood at 51.5%, showing resilience compared to other sectors, which experienced declines[17] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing PMI for April was 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points but still indicating expansion[18] - The service sector's business activity index was 50.1%, supported by increased consumer spending during the Qingming Festival[22] - The construction sector's business activity index remained robust at 51.9%, driven by infrastructure projects and government initiatives[26]

Group 1 - The old market adage "Sell in May and go away" is influencing the current rebound in the US stock market, with historical data supporting this trend [1] - A fund tracking the S&P 500 index since 1993 shows a cumulative return of 171% from May to October, compared to 731% from November to April, indicating a significant seasonal performance difference [1][2] - The S&P 500 index has rebounded 12% from its low this month but is still down 5.5% year-to-date, suggesting caution in chasing gains [1] Group 2 - Over the past 74 years, the S&P 500 index has only achieved a cumulative return of 35% from May to October, while the return from November to April has been as high as 11,657% [2] - The upcoming US non-farm payroll report is expected to be a key focus for the market, as it may influence investor sentiment and market direction [2] - Some indicators have signaled a buying opportunity, including a drop in investor confidence and the S&P 500 index recovering above 5,500 points, indicating a potential shift towards buying on dips [2] Group 3 - Historical data suggests that in years where the stock market has a poor start, the S&P 500 index tends to perform worse from May to October, with an average decline of 0.4% in such years [3] - The SPDR S&P 500 ETF has seen a year-to-date decline of 5.4%, reflecting the cautious market sentiment [3] - The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) remains elevated around 25, above the long-term average of approximately 20, indicating ongoing market volatility [3] Group 4 - The potential expiration of tariff suspensions by Trump in July could serve as a source of volatility, reinforcing the "Sell in May" trend and highlighting the impact of global trade dynamics on market movements [5] - Market analysts suggest that long-term holding strategies may be wiser for ordinary investors compared to attempting to time the market, with a buy-and-hold strategy since 1993 yielding a return of 2,100% for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF [5]

Group 1 - The article discusses the historical phenomenon of "Sell in May and Go Away," highlighting that the cumulative returns of the S&P 500 from May to October are significantly lower than from November to April [1][2] - Bespoke Investment Group's analysis shows that an investment in a fund tracking the S&P 500 since 1993 would yield a cumulative return of 171% from May to October, compared to 731% from November to April [1] - Over the past 74 years, the cumulative return for the S&P 500 from May to October has been only 35%, while the return for the other half of the year has reached 11,657% [1] Group 2 - Seasonal data is particularly important this year, with indications that the balance has shifted towards a potential decline in the S&P 500 in May [2] - If the S&P 500 shows negative growth from January to April, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) has historically averaged a decline of 0.4% from May to October [2] - The volatility index (VIX) remains elevated around 25, which is significantly above the long-term average of approximately 20, indicating increased market volatility as May approaches [2] Group 3 - Tariff discussions and uncertainties are highlighted as key variables affecting market conditions, overshadowing seasonal trends [2]