今日早盘，成长风格再度走强，价值风格相对承压。指数层面，国证成长100指数上涨2.9%、有望实现"四连阳"，国证价值100指数下跌1.3%，国证自由现 金流指数下跌1.4%。 国证成长100指数聚焦A股成长风格突出的股票，紧扣经济转型脉搏，当前指数超七成权重集中于电子、通信、计算机板块，精准卡位AI算力核心环节，结 构锐度突出。成长ETF（159259）是市场唯一跟踪该指数的产品，可助力投资者把握成长风格投资机遇。 每日经济新闻 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the initiation of the "Spring Surge" market trend, emphasizing that technology, particularly AI computing hardware, is leading the charge [2][4] - The report indicates that regulatory changes are allowing for a moderate opening of capital space and leverage limits in the securities industry, which is expected to catalyze the "Spring Surge" [4] - The demand for AI computing hardware, especially optical modules, is projected to drive market growth, with significant price increases anticipated for optical chips by 2026 due to supply shortages [5][9] Regulatory Environment - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is focusing on differentiated supervision, aiming to support high-quality institutions by easing certain restrictions, which is expected to enhance capital efficiency [4] - Recent adjustments to risk factors for insurance companies' holdings in specific indices are expected to encourage new capital inflows into the market [4] Market Performance - On December 8, 2025, the communication and electronics sectors led the market with gains of 4.67% and 2.51%, respectively, while the optical module index surged by 9.28% [4] - The report notes that the performance of growth-oriented sectors is typically favored during the "Spring Surge" [4] AI Hardware and Optical Modules - Google's recent upgrade of its AI model, Gemini 3, is expected to boost market expectations, particularly for Tensor Processing Units (TPUs), which are anticipated to see increased production by 2026-2027 [5][10] - The optical communication chip market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17% from 2025 to 2030, with total sales expected to rise from approximately $3.5 billion in 2024 to over $11 billion by 2030 [9] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on the TPU supply chain, particularly companies involved in optical modules, printed circuit boards (PCBs), optical circuit switches (OCS), and fiber optic suppliers, as these sectors are expected to benefit from technological advancements and increased demand [10] - Key stocks in the TPU supply chain have shown significant price increases, with some companies experiencing gains of over 300% year-to-date [11]

上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 国泰基金曾辉： 国内 A 股可能明年上半年继续震荡，下半年在经济复苏预期的推动下再上一 个台阶。 诺德基金郑源： 在香港上市的内地企业股价或将会同时受益于国内经济上行、全球流动性宽 松，以及估值优势，值得关注。 平安基金吴心洋： 展望 2026 年，对国内权益、海外权益、黄金等商品、美债均偏乐观，国 内债市预计震荡为主。 嘉实基金赵迁： 2026 年最大的不确定性因素来自海外 AI 叙事的持续性和通胀背景下的美联 储决策。 华商基金孙志远： 2026 年更倾向于配置中国的权益资产，尤其是与价格相关度高的板块。 预计政策端将积极发力 2025 年临近尾声， 2026 年大类资产配置提上日程。 2026 年， A 股市场将呈现怎样的走 势？哪类资产性价比更高？该如何构建组合以把握机会、抵御潜在风险？ 为此，中国基金报记者采访了东方红资产管理董事总经理、多元投资部总经理、基金经理邓 炯鹏，国泰基金多资产配置部负责人曾辉，诺德基金 FOF 投资总监郑源，华商基金资产配置 部总经理、华商安远稳进一年持有混合（ FOF ）基金经理 ...

2025年临近尾声，2026年大类资产配置提上日程。2026年，A股市场将呈现怎样的走势？哪类资产性价比更高？该如何构建组合以把握机会、抵御潜在风 险？ 国泰基金曾辉：国内A股可能明年上半年继续震荡，下半年在经济复苏预期的推动下再上一个台阶。 诺德基金郑源：在香港上市的内地企业股价或将会同时受益于国内经济上行、全球流动性宽松，以及估值优势，值得关注。 平安基金吴心洋：展望2026年，对国内权益、海外权益、黄金等商品、美债均偏乐观，国内债市预计震荡为主。 嘉实基金赵迁：2026年最大的不确定性因素来自海外AI叙事的持续性和通胀背景下的美联储决策。 华商基金孙志远：2026年更倾向于配置中国的权益资产，尤其是与价格相关度高的板块。 为此，中国基金报记者采访了东方红资产管理董事总经理、多元投资部总经理、基金经理邓炯鹏，国泰基金多资产配置部负责人曾辉，诺德基金FOF投资 总监郑源，华商基金资产配置部总经理、华商安远稳进一年持有混合（FOF）基金经理孙志远，嘉实基金FOF基金经理赵迁，平安基金FOF投资部基金经 理吴心洋等六位公募FOF基金经理，共同研判2026年的投资脉络和市场机会。 东方红资产管理邓炯鹏：2026年 ...

信达证券：12月或成为布局跨年行情的窗口期；国海证券：春季躁动中值得关注的仍然是成长风格；开 源证券：可提前布局春季躁动。 沪指本周累计上涨0.37%，深证成指涨1.26%，创业板指涨1.86%。A股后市怎么走？看看机构怎么说： ①信达证券：12月或成为布局跨年行情的窗口期 开源证券指出，近期市场回调暂告一段落，可提前布局春季躁动，交易和配置上应注意：（1）科技与 周期双轮驱动，反内卷下周期机会凸显；（2）科技依然具备中长期占优的条件；（3）在近期的调整 中，我们认为部分超跌的成长行业的机会已经有所显现:军工、传媒（游戏）、AI应用、港股互联网、 电力设备等；而未来机构的核心科技蓝筹或也将跟随修复。 ④银河证券：A股市场中长期向好逻辑不改 银河证券指出，年末行情轮动较快，或仍以震荡结构为主。同时，A股市场中长期向好逻辑不改。监管 层下调险企股票投资风险因子，将进一步释放保险资金入市潜力，为市场注入更多增量流动性。 ⑤华宝证券：建议12月优选景气度向上的行业进行提前布局 华宝证券指出，由守转攻，积极布局高景气方向等风起。内外部波动风险均有所缓和，前期热门成长板 块多数出现了止跌企稳的现象，12月有望进一步整固企 ...

Core Viewpoint - The spring market rally may occur earlier this year due to various catalysts and the late timing of the Spring Festival, with a shift in market focus from large-cap value stocks to small-cap growth stocks, particularly in the AI application sector [1][8]. Group 1: Spring Rally Dynamics - Historical patterns indicate that spring rallies are more likely when the market is in a state of speculation, particularly when there are divergences in the DDM three-factor model [2][9]. - The current economic environment is characterized by moderate recovery, making a spring rally a high-probability event under speculative conditions [2][9]. - The late timing of the Spring Festival this year may lead to earlier market movements influenced by policy changes, economic data, and risk events, similar to trends observed in 2013 and 2018 [2][9]. Group 2: Five-Year Planning Impact - The release of five-year planning proposals historically correlates with stronger spring rallies, as seen in the aftermath of proposals in 2010, 2015, and 2020 [3][11]. - The current proposal emphasizes a shift towards growth styles following the initial dominance of value styles, reflecting a broader trend observed in previous five-year plans [3][11]. - Key sectors highlighted in the five-year plans, such as high-end manufacturing, energy construction, and new technologies, tend to perform well during spring rallies [4][12]. Group 3: Strategic Focus of the 15th Five-Year Plan - The 15th Five-Year Plan focuses on optimizing traditional industries, expanding emerging industries, and forward-looking layouts for future industries, particularly in AI and technology [5][13]. - The plan prioritizes the construction of a modern industrial system, high-level opening up, and improving people's livelihoods, which are expected to drive economic growth [6][13]. - Specific sectors such as quantum technology, biotechnology, and renewable energy are identified as future growth points, aligning with global trends in technology and innovation [6][14]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The upcoming spring rally is expected to favor sectors related to technology trends, such as AI applications and consumer electronics, which have shown signs of stagnation [7][14]. - High-demand sectors like semiconductors, energy storage, and wind power are anticipated to benefit from the rally [7][14]. - The market is advised to pay attention to low-positioned technology sectors, including robotics and innovative pharmaceuticals, which may have rotation potential [7][14].

2025 年 12 月 06 日 策略周报 研究所： 证券分析师： 赵阳 S0350525100003 zhaoy05@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 如果春季躁动提前，哪些方向值得关注？ 最近一年走势 相关报告 《流动性周报 12 月第 1 期：ETF 资金净流出，宏 观流动性边际收敛*赵阳》——2025-12-01 《策略周报：近期海外市场关注的三个焦点问题* 赵阳，袁野》——2025-11-29 《流动性周报 11 月第 1 期：基金发行端回暖，杠 杆资金有所放缓*赵阳》——2025-11-24 阳》——2025-11-23 《美股 AI 泡沫度量与互联网周期定位*袁野，赵阳》 ——2025-11-16 本篇报告主要讨论：1、每年 2 月是常规春季躁动区间，牛市年份是否会 提前？2、从市场环境上看，本轮的跨年春季行情有没有可能提前？3、 如果春季躁动提前，如何布局？ 核心要点: 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 1、从历史的跨年行情上看，整体胜率最高的是 2 月份，即"春季躁 动"行情的常规时间区间。但如果去看过去几轮牛市中继的年份， 我们发现"春季躁动"行情往往会提前。 ...

金融投资报记者 林珂 在经历短期的快速回调后，12月初A股市场延续震荡格局，进入"上有压制下有支撑"的空间当中。 对于12月的整体行情研判，市场机构的态度谨慎偏多。多家机构认为，震荡洗盘有利于后市运行，"冬 播"行情或将到来。 中金公司：成长风格相对占优 回顾11月，A股市场震荡调整，交易活跃度有所下降，风格演绎阶段性"高切低"，但持续时间短且主线 不清，红利风格略有相对表现。从全球范围看，主要经济体的股票市场出现普跌。投资者一方面对美联 储降息节奏的预期有所反复，另一方面则对当前AI资产是否已经出现泡沫、科技叙事持续性等担忧阶 段性升温。 展望后市，短期的风格切换较难持续，在中外流动性宽松周期共振的背景下，A股市场估值相对合理。 AI科技革命与能源革命支撑从上游原材料到中游制造的需求，成长产业高景气带动上市公司业绩改 善，震荡上行的趋势仍在延续。自当前时点至明年初，仍可重点关注大盘成长风格，而较长时间维度的 风格切换，可能出现在明年第一季度左右。自今年第四季度以来，通胀预期出现普遍下调，关注年末涉 及房地产、促消费等相关领域的政策信号。 12月建议关注如下配置思路：第一是人工智能应用仍在落地过程中，关注国产 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities indicates that incremental capital is expected to maintain a stable net inflow in December, with foreign capital activity likely to continue to rebound [1][4]. Group 1: Market Style Outlook - The market style is expected to focus on large-cap stocks, with a potential shift from growth to value [2]. - Historical data shows that large-cap styles have outperformed in December, influenced by policy expectations from key domestic meetings and the upcoming annual report preview window [2]. - The central bank's recent monetary policy report suggests a "cross-cycle" approach, indicating that policy support may be more pronounced next year [2]. Group 2: External Factors - The likelihood of a hawkish rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is high, which may lead to a peak in the US dollar index, reducing external liquidity's impact on the market compared to November [2]. - The demand for foreign capital is expected to increase due to the anticipated strength of the RMB, driven by year-end settlement needs and a peak in the dollar index [2]. Group 3: Fund Flows and Liquidity - December is projected to see stable net inflows of incremental capital, with foreign capital activity expected to rise [4]. - The monetary market's liquidity remained stable in November, supported by the central bank, and is likely to continue being reasonably ample in December [4]. - New equity fund issuance is expected to provide additional capital for sectors like AI and chips, with significant fundraising occurring in early December [2][4]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Preferences - Market risk appetite has fluctuated, with a shift towards defensive trading characteristics, favoring low-volatility sectors such as banking and textiles [5]. - Defensive sectors have performed well, while previously high-performing sectors like technology and automotive have seen declines [5].

Core Viewpoint - The news highlights the performance of the CSI 500 Quality Growth Index and its constituent stocks, along with the impact of macroeconomic factors on metal prices and investment opportunities in the technology growth sector [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of December 4, 2025, the CSI 500 Quality Growth Index decreased by 0.16%, with Jin Chengxin leading the gains and Woer Nuclear Materials experiencing the largest decline [1]. - The CSI 500 Quality Growth ETF (560500) has undergone adjustments, reflecting changes in its constituent stocks [1]. Group 2: Metal Prices and Demand - On December 4, 2025, U.S. aluminum companies saw significant stock price increases, with Alcoa rising by 6.37% and Kaiser Aluminum by 5.89% [1]. - International copper prices reached a new high, with LME copper increasing by 2.7%, and the main contract for Shanghai copper futures surpassing 90,000 yuan per ton [1]. - The LME reported a 50,575-ton surge in copper delivery applications, marking the largest increase by tonnage since 2013 [1]. - The tightening supply of raw materials is expected to drive up prices for copper, aluminum, and tin, amid concerns over supply disruptions [1]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - CICC suggests that the current global macro environment and trends in innovative industries favor growth styles, with three main investment themes: growth in demand, external market breakthroughs, and cyclical reversals [2]. - The CSI 500 Quality Growth ETF closely tracks the CSI 500 Quality Growth Index, selecting 100 companies with strong profitability and sustainable cash flow for investment [2]. - As of November 28, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI 500 Quality Growth Index accounted for 21.53% of the index, with Huagong Technology and Kaiying Network among the leaders [2][3].