Economic Overview - The political bureau meeting on July 30, 2025, acknowledged the economic growth of 5.3% in the first half of the year, laying a solid foundation for achieving the annual growth target of around 5%[1] - The meeting highlighted ongoing risks and challenges in the economy, necessitating continued macro policy support and effectiveness[1] Policy Directions - Macro policies are to "continue to exert force and timely increase strength," maintaining the focus on "stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations" as key objectives[1] - The meeting emphasized the need for policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight[1] Demand Expansion - Policies to expand domestic demand will focus on two growth points in service consumption: general consumption and elderly/childcare consumption[1] - For general consumption, service consumption subsidies may replace "old-for-new" subsidies, potentially driving an additional 70 billion yuan in consumption annually, accounting for approximately 0.15% of social retail sales[1] Industrial Policy - The meeting stressed the importance of optimizing market competition order and addressing disorderly competition among enterprises[2] - The approach to capacity reduction will be guided rather than enforced, focusing on market-driven methods to minimize economic shocks[2] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy will prioritize structural support rather than broad easing, with a focus on supporting technology innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade[2] - The potential introduction of policy financial tools is anticipated, with a timeline similar to previous years, aiming to support various sectors including traditional infrastructure and technology[2] Fiscal Policy - Fiscal measures in the first half of the year showed a 3.4% increase in expenditures, indicating a proactive fiscal stance[2] - The actual deficit rate for the first half reached 3.9%, suggesting significant fiscal effort, although further total policy increases may not be necessary unless economic pressures escalate in the latter half[2] Financial Market - The meeting called for enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market to sustain its recovery momentum[2] - This involves institutional innovation and market opening to better allocate resources and support various enterprises[2] Real Estate Policy - While not a primary focus, the meeting underscored the importance of implementing urban renewal and improving the real estate development model[2] - Future policies may include optimizing existing regulations and promoting urban renewal projects to stimulate housing demand[2] Risk Considerations - Risks include potential downturns in the real estate market, trade tensions, and the effectiveness of consumption stimulus measures[2]

Core Viewpoint - In June, China's industrial enterprises showed signs of profit recovery, particularly in new momentum industries like equipment manufacturing, signaling a positive trend in the real economy [1][2]. Group 1: Profit and Revenue Trends - In June, the total profit of large-scale industrial enterprises in China reached 715.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.3%, but the decline narrowed significantly by 4.8 percentage points compared to May [1]. - The revenue of large-scale industrial enterprises grew by 1.0% year-on-year in June, maintaining the same growth rate as in May [1]. - For the first half of the year, revenue increased by 2.5% year-on-year, while profits decreased by 1.8%, indicating a widening decline compared to the first five months but a narrowing decline compared to the end of 2024 [1]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Profitability - The overall decline in profits for large-scale industrial enterprises has been attributed to external environmental shocks, ongoing elimination of outdated capacity, low Producer Price Index (PPI), and insufficient domestic demand [2]. - The average accounts receivable collection period for large-scale industrial enterprises was 69.8 days at the end of June, a decrease of 0.7 days from the end of May, indicating improved cash flow [2]. Group 3: Policy Impact and Sector Performance - The implementation of the "Regulations on Payment of Funds to Small and Medium-sized Enterprises" since June 1 has improved overall collection efficiency for industrial enterprises, particularly benefiting private enterprises [3]. - In June, the profit growth rate for large-scale manufacturing enterprises shifted from a decline of 4.1% in May to an increase of 1.4%, driven by policies supporting equipment manufacturing and high-tech industries [3]. - Profits in the equipment manufacturing sector increased by 9.6% year-on-year in June, contributing significantly to the overall profit growth of large-scale industrial enterprises [3]. Group 4: Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The manufacturing sector is advancing towards high-end, intelligent, and green production, with significant profit increases in high-end equipment manufacturing and green manufacturing sectors [4]. - The profit growth rates for specific industries, such as electronic materials and lithium-ion battery manufacturing, reached 68.1% and 72.8% respectively in June [4]. - Looking ahead, the recovery of industrial enterprise profits is expected to continue, supported by domestic demand expansion and regulatory policies aimed at stabilizing market competition [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the national Consumer Price Index (CPI) in June 2025 has shown a new trend, with a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, ending a four-month decline, while the core CPI rose by 0.7%, reaching a 14-month high [1] - In June, 14 provinces experienced a year-on-year increase in CPI, while 10 provinces saw a decline, indicating a shift in regional price trends [1] - The analysis by Wang Qing from Dongfang Jincheng highlights three main driving forces for the CPI's positive change: seasonal rise in vegetable prices, an increase in domestic energy prices due to international oil price fluctuations, and the support from the "old-for-new" policy [2] Group 2 - Future CPI trends are expected to show a low and moderate recovery, supported by stable economic performance and effective domestic demand policies [4] - Factors contributing to price stability include ongoing economic expansion, effective policies to boost consumption, and regulatory actions to curb disorderly price competition in various industries [5] - The holiday effect is anticipated to further stabilize or increase service-related prices, with several upcoming holidays expected to have a noticeable impact [5]

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic policies in China are expected to further support economic growth in the second half of the year, with an emphasis on boosting consumption, stabilizing the real estate market, and enhancing liquidity [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Performance - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, with major indicators performing better than expected, largely due to proactive macroeconomic policy support [1]. - Fiscal policies have played a significant role in driving economic performance, with effective consumer promotion measures noted by experts [1]. Group 2: Consumption and Export Dynamics - The improvement in consumption is attributed not only to subsidies but also to the emergence of new consumer habits [2]. - Despite a decline in the export growth rate of labor-intensive goods, manufacturing exports, particularly in integrated circuits and automobiles, have helped maintain a high overall export growth rate [2]. Group 3: Future Policy Directions - Experts anticipate continued macroeconomic policy support to foster economic growth, with a focus on expanding domestic demand [2]. - Policies aimed at boosting consumption are expected to evolve, with an emphasis on income enhancement and alleviating supply-side constraints to create new consumption scenarios [2]. Group 4: Monetary Policy Considerations - There is potential for further adjustments in monetary policy, including liquidity provision and benchmark interest rates [3]. - Regulatory policies may also see adjustments, particularly concerning interbank liabilities and certificates of deposit [3].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as outperforming the market, with an expected relative increase of over 10% in the next six months [46]. Core Insights - In June 2025, China's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 42,287 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, which is an increase of 2.8 percentage points compared to the same period last year, although it represents a month-on-month decline of 1.6 percentage points [2][14]. - The growth rate of retail sales in urban and rural areas has both declined, with urban growth at 4.8% and rural growth at 4.5% [16][21]. - Online retail sales from January to June 2025 totaled 74,295 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8.5%, accounting for 30.27% of total retail sales [4][38]. Summary by Sections Overall Performance - The total retail sales in June 2025 were 42,287 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.8% and a month-on-month decline of 1.6% [2][14]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% year-on-year in June, compared to a decrease of 0.1% in May [14][15]. Segment Analysis - Among 16 categories of goods, five categories (Chinese and Western medicines, beverages, tobacco and alcohol, cosmetics, and petroleum products) experienced negative growth, while others showed positive growth, particularly home appliances and audio-visual equipment, cultural office supplies, and furniture, all exceeding 20% growth [3][20]. - Essential goods like grain and oil (+8.7%) and daily necessities (+7.8%) saw a decline in growth rates, while furniture (+28.7%) and automobiles (+4.6%) showed increased growth [20][24]. Online Retail - Online retail sales for the first half of 2025 reached 74,295 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5% [4][38]. - The cumulative online retail sales of physical goods amounted to 61,191 billion yuan, with a growth of 6.0% [41]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as food and beverages, social services, and retail, highlighting opportunities in the gold and jewelry market due to its appeal as a safe-haven asset, and the cosmetics sector, which is seeing increased acceptance of domestic brands [9][42][44]. - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in home appliances and furniture due to ongoing government subsidies and policies aimed at boosting consumption [8][42].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Overseas, rumors of Trump dismissing Powell led to a "triple kill" in the US stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets, followed by a resurgence of the TACO trade. The US June PPI同比 dropped to 2.3%, hitting a nearly one - year low. Trump insists on a 25% tariff on Japan and is promoting an agreement with India, while the EU is preparing a 72 - billion - euro retaliatory list [2]. - Domestically, Li Qiang chaired the State Council Executive Meeting to study key policy measures for strengthening the domestic cycle, promote consumption, and standardize the new energy vehicle industry. A - shares are in a shrinking adjustment, and the bond market is under pressure. The short - term is expected to continue to fluctuate and adjust [3]. - Due to the intensifying rumors of a change in the Fed's leadership and geopolitical tensions, precious metals are expected to show a volatile and upward - biased pattern, and silver prices are expected to perform well in the future [4][5]. - For copper, overseas spot tightness has eased. With factors such as price increases and cost pressures from tariffs, and some mine production increases, both Lun copper and Shanghai copper are expected to fluctuate in the short term [6][7]. - Aluminum prices are in a volatile adjustment. With the increase in ingot production and the arrival of the consumption off - season, the short - term is expected to remain weak [8][9]. - Alumina is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and there is still significant medium - to - long - term supply pressure [10]. - Zinc prices are in a narrow - range fluctuation. With weak fundamentals and limited short - selling power from funds, they are expected to run weakly in the short term [11]. - Lead prices are affected by the tariff on exported batteries and are in a weak state. Although supply tightening may provide some support, they are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [12][13]. - Tin prices are affected by macro factors and have large intraday fluctuations. With limited fundamental changes, they are expected to maintain a wide - range fluctuation in the short term [14]. - Industrial silicon is expected to run strongly and fluctuate in the short term under the impetus of new policies, despite weak demand in some downstream industries [15][16]. - Lithium carbonate prices are fluctuating. Affected by mine - end disturbances, they are in a strong state in the short term, but may return to fundamentals in the future [17][18]. - Nickel prices are fluctuating. With the easing of the shortage of nickel ore in Indonesia and the weakening of cost pressure, they are expected to be affected by tariff disturbances in the short term [19]. - Crude oil prices are fluctuating. The uncertainty of the Israel - Iran conflict makes it advisable to wait and see [20]. - Steel futures are in a high - level volatile state. Policy expectations boost the market, but fundamentals are weak, and demand is expected to remain weak [21][22]. - Iron ore futures are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. Macro sentiment is positive, but iron water production is expected to remain weak [23]. - Bean and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. The US - Indonesia agreement improves export expectations, but bean meal inventory is increasing [24]. - Palm oil is expected to fluctuate and adjust. Malaysian palm oil production increased in the first half of July, while demand decreased [25][26]. Group 3: Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Metal Main Varieties Yesterday's Trading Data - The table shows the closing data of major metal futures contracts, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, gold, silver, etc., including closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, and open interest [27]. 2. Industrial Data Perspective - For copper, data such as SHFE and LME copper prices, inventory, spot quotes, and spreads are presented, showing changes from July 11th to July 14th [28]. - For nickel, similar data including SHFE and LME nickel prices, inventory, and spreads are provided, indicating changes during the same period [28]. - Similar data for zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, precious metals, steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and bean and rapeseed meal are also presented, reflecting their price and inventory changes [28][30][31][32][33][34][35].

Core Viewpoint - The June Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, marking the first rebound after several months of decline, while the core CPI rose by 0.7%, the highest since last year, indicating positive changes in the price market [1][3]. Group 1: CPI Trends - The June CPI increase is attributed to the "two new" policies that supported the rise in industrial consumer goods prices, particularly in categories like home appliances and office supplies [1]. - The rise in international oil prices has alleviated the downward pressure on energy prices, contributing to the CPI's rebound [1]. - In June, the prices of precious metals increased, which positively impacted the prices of related domestic products, such as platinum jewelry, supporting the CPI's recovery [1]. Group 2: Future Price Outlook - The overall judgment is that prices are expected to experience a mild recovery at low levels in the second half of the year, supported by several factors [3]. - Economic stability and continuous expansion of total demand provide a macro foundation for stable price operations [3]. - Policies aimed at expanding domestic demand are expected to effectively stimulate consumer demand, thereby promoting the stabilization and increase of consumer goods prices [3]. - Regulatory measures against disorderly low-price competition are anticipated to improve market order and environment [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in China, highlighting a shift from negative to positive growth in June, driven by various economic factors and policy measures [1][2]. Group 1: CPI Trends - In June, the CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, ending a four-month streak of negative growth, with the core CPI reaching a new high in nearly 14 months [1]. - The decline in CPI earlier in the year was significantly influenced by food prices, which fell by 0.9%, and energy prices, which decreased by 3.2%, collectively pulling down the CPI by approximately 0.4 percentage points [2]. Group 2: Factors Supporting Price Recovery - Several factors are expected to support a moderate recovery in prices in the second half of the year: 1. The economy is maintaining a stable and positive trend, with continued expansion in total demand, providing a macroeconomic foundation for price stability [3]. 2. Policies aimed at expanding domestic demand are expected to effectively stimulate consumption and support a rebound in consumer prices [3]. 3. Regulatory measures to address low-price disorder in the market will help improve market order and environment [4]. 4. The holiday effect is anticipated to promote stability or an increase in service-related prices [4]. 5. Technical factors indicate that the downward pressure from tail effects on both CPI and PPI will diminish in the second half of the year [4].

Group 1 - The overall price level is still adjusting due to the pressure from traditional growth drivers, despite the emergence of new growth drivers [1][3] - In June, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% year-on-year, ending four consecutive months of negative growth, while the core CPI reached a new high in nearly 14 months [1][3] - Factors supporting a moderate recovery in prices in the second half of the year include stable economic performance, effective demand expansion policies, regulation of low-price competition, holiday effects, and diminishing tail effects [1][4] Group 2 - The rise in CPI in June was influenced by the recovery of industrial consumer goods prices supported by "two new" policies, as well as supply disruptions in vegetables and certain seafood products due to weather conditions [3] - In the first half of the year, food prices fell by 0.9% and energy prices decreased by 3.2%, collectively dragging down the CPI by approximately 0.4 percentage points [3] - The current low price levels are characterized by structural and temporary factors, linked to both domestic and international macroeconomic changes [3][4] Group 3 - The expectation for price trends in the second half of the year is a low and moderate recovery, supported by several factors including stable economic growth and expanding overall demand [4] - Policies aimed at expanding domestic demand are expected to effectively stimulate consumption and support price recovery in consumer goods [4] - Recent self-regulatory actions by industry associations in sectors like photovoltaics, cement, and automobiles are anticipated to positively impact pricing in those areas [4]

Core Insights - The manufacturing PMI for June is at 49.7%, indicating a slight expansion in the manufacturing sector, with 11 out of 21 surveyed industries in the expansion zone, an increase of 4 from the previous month [2][3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.5%, showing continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [4][6] - The comprehensive PMI output index is at 50.7%, reflecting an overall acceleration in production and business activities [6] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI increased to 49.7%, with production and new orders indices at 51.0% and 50.2%, respectively, indicating improved production activities and market demand [2][3] - The purchasing volume index rose to 50.2%, up by 2.6 percentage points, suggesting enhanced procurement willingness among enterprises [2] - Price indices for major raw materials and factory prices improved, with indices at 48.4% and 46.2%, respectively, influenced by rising international oil prices [2] Key Industries - Key industries such as equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods continue to expand, with PMIs at 51.4%, 50.9%, and 50.4%, respectively [3] - The construction sector shows a significant recovery, with the business activity index at 52.8%, indicating robust infrastructure project progress [4][5] Market Expectations - The service sector's business activity expectation index is at 56.0%, indicating optimism among service enterprises regarding future development [5] - The construction industry's business activity expectation index rose to 53.9%, reflecting increased confidence among construction firms [5] Overall Economic Outlook - The overall economic activity is expected to improve as policy effects continue to manifest, with investment and consumption-related demands likely to be released [7]