Group 1: CPI Analysis - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.7% year-on-year in November, marking the highest growth since March 2024, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% [1][2] - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by a shift in food prices from decline to increase, with fresh vegetable prices surging by 14.5% year-on-year [2] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2%, indicating stable performance and the effectiveness of domestic demand expansion policies [1][2] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a month-on-month increase of 0.1% but a year-on-year decrease of 2.2%, reflecting seasonal demand increases and the impact of "anti-involution" policies [4] - The rise in PPI was influenced by increased demand for coal and gas during winter, with coal mining prices rising by 4.1% month-on-month [4] - The "anti-involution" policy has played a significant role in improving PPI data, with prices in emerging industries like photovoltaic equipment and lithium-ion batteries showing reduced year-on-year declines [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - Experts predict that the price level will continue to rise moderately from a low base, with CPI expected to increase by around 0.8% year-on-year in 2026 [5] - Core CPI is anticipated to rise to over 1.5% by the end of the year, with potential for CPI to approach 1.0% and possibly reach 2.0% in 2026 [6] - The overall economic environment is expected to support a stable recovery in domestic demand, with policies aimed at boosting consumption and employment continuing to be implemented [6]

作者丨冉黎黎 编辑丨包芳鸣 12月10日，国家统计局发布的数据显示，2025年11月份，全国居民消费价格（CPI）同比上涨 0.7%，环比下降0.1%；全国工业生产者出厂价格（PPI）同比下降2.2%，环比上涨0.1%。值 得注意的是， 11月CPI同比上涨0.7%，涨幅比上月扩大0.5个百分点，为2024年3月份以来最 高。PPI环比上涨0.1%，连续两个月上涨。 国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟解读称， CPI同比涨幅扩大主要是食品价格由降转涨拉 动。 食品价格由上月下降2.9%转为上涨0.2%，对CPI同比的影响由上月下拉0.54个百分点转 为上拉0.04个百分点。 扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%，涨幅连续3个月保持在 1%以上。 另外，PPI同比下降2.2%，降幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点， 主要受上年同期对比基 数走高影响。 展望未来，中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬对21世纪经济报道记者表示，随着扩内需等政策措 施发力显效，现代化产业体系加快构建，叠加重点行业产能治理持续推进、市场竞争秩序优 化，物价有望低位温和回升。 （全国居民消费价格涨跌幅 来源：国家统计局） 核心C PI涨幅连续三 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.7% year-on-year in November, marking the highest increase since March 2024, primarily driven by a turnaround in food prices [1][2] - In November, food prices shifted from a year-on-year decline of 2.9% to an increase of 0.2%, contributing positively to the CPI by 0.04 percentage points [1] - Fresh vegetable prices saw a significant increase of 14.5% year-on-year after nine consecutive months of decline, while fresh fruit prices rose by 0.7% [1] Group 2 - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 1.2% year-on-year, maintaining a growth rate above 1% for three consecutive months [1] - Service prices and industrial consumer goods, excluding energy, rose by 0.7% and 2.1% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a recovery in consumer demand [1] - The expansion of domestic demand policies has positively impacted prices, with household appliances and clothing prices increasing by 4.9% and 2.0% year-on-year [1] Group 3 - On a month-on-month basis, the CPI decreased by 0.1% in November, primarily due to seasonal declines in service prices [2] - The chief economist of China Minsheng Bank noted that the year-on-year increase in CPI reflects a continuous recovery in consumer spending [2] - Looking ahead to 2026, it is anticipated that with the implementation of domestic demand expansion policies and improvements in market competition, prices may experience a moderate recovery [2]

Core Insights - In November, consumer spending continued to recover, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) slightly decreasing by 0.1% month-on-month but increasing by 0.7% year-on-year, marking the highest year-on-year increase since March 2024 [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, maintaining above 1% for three consecutive months [2] CPI Analysis - The year-on-year increase in CPI was primarily driven by a shift in food prices from decline to increase, with food prices rising by 0.2% after a previous decline of 2.9% [2] - Fresh vegetable prices saw a significant turnaround, increasing by 14.5% after a 7.3% decline, contributing approximately 0.49 percentage points to the CPI year-on-year [2] - Energy prices decreased by 3.4%, with gasoline prices dropping by 7.5% [2] - Service prices experienced a seasonal decline of 0.4%, impacting the month-on-month CPI decrease [4] PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.1% month-on-month, marking two consecutive months of growth, while the year-on-year decline expanded to 2.2% [5][6] - Seasonal demand increases in certain domestic industries, such as coal and gas, contributed to the month-on-month price increases [5] - The international price trends for metals and oil led to a mixed impact on domestic prices, with some sectors experiencing price increases while others saw declines [6] - New industries, such as new materials and green technology, are driving price increases in related sectors, with specific categories like external storage devices seeing a year-on-year price increase of 13.9% [6][7]

（全国居民消费价格涨跌幅来源：国家统计局） 核心CPI涨幅连续三月保持1%以上 同比来看，11月份，CPI同比上涨0.7%。其中，城市上涨0.7%，农村上涨0.4%；食品价格上涨0.2%，非食品价格上涨0.8%；消 费品价格上涨0.6%，服务价格上涨0.7%。 1—11月平均，CPI与上年同期持平。 国家统计局数据显示，9月份，CPI同比下降0.3%；10月份，同比上涨0.2%。对比前两个月，CPI由降转涨后持续恢复，11月CPI 同比上涨0.7%，涨幅比上月扩大0.5个百分点。 21世纪经济报道记者冉黎黎北京报道12月10日，国家统计局发布的数据显示，2025年11月份，全国居民消费价格（CPI）同比上 涨0.7%，环比下降0.1%；全国工业生产者出厂价格（PPI）同比下降2.2%，环比上涨0.1%。值得注意的是，11月CPI同比上涨 0.7%，涨幅比上月扩大0.5个百分点，为2024年3月份以来最高。PPI环比上涨0.1%，连续两个月上涨。 国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟解读称，CPI同比涨幅扩大主要是食品价格由降转涨拉动。食品价格由上月下降2.9%转为上 涨0.2%，对CPI同比的影响由上月下拉0.5 ...

CPI同比上涨0.7%，涨幅比上月扩大0.5个百分点，为2024年3月份以来最高，同比涨幅扩大主要是食品 价格由降转涨拉动。食品价格由上月下降2.9%转为上涨0.2%，对CPI同比的影响由上月下拉0.54个百分 点转为上拉0.04个百分点。食品中，鲜菜价格由上月下降7.3%转为上涨14.5%，为连续下降9个月后首次 转涨，对CPI同比的上拉影响比上月增加约0.49个百分点；鲜果价格由上月下降2.0%转为上涨0.7%；牛 肉和羊肉价格分别上涨6.2%和3.7%，涨幅均有扩大；猪肉和禽肉类价格分别下降15.0%和0.6%，降幅均 有收窄。能源价格下降3.4%，降幅比上月扩大1.0个百分点，其中汽油价格降幅扩大至7.5%。扣除食品 和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%，涨幅连续3个月保持在1%以上。服务和扣除能源的工业消费品价 格分别上涨0.7%和2.1%，分别影响CPI同比上涨约0.29个百分点和0.53个百分点。其中扩内需政策措施 继续显效，家用器具和服装价格分别上涨4.9%和2.0%，飞机票、家政服务和在外餐饮价格分别上涨 7.0%、2.4%和1.2%。金饰品价格涨幅扩大至58.4%。另外，燃油小汽车和新能 ...

通胀还能持续回升吗？ —— 11 月物价数据解读 2025 证 12 证 10 证 分析师 张迪 证010-8092 -7737 证zha n gdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130524060001 吕雷 证010-8092 -7780 证lvlei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130524080002 研究助理：薄一程 www.chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 1 宏观动态报告 ⚫ 1 1 月份 CPI 环比 微跌 0.1 %（前值 0.2%），同比上涨 0.7%（前值 0.2 %）， 其中翘尾因素较上月改善约 0.6 个百分点 。整体来看 翘尾因素叠加食品拖累 减弱是 CPI 回升主因 。证证证证证证证证 0.3% 证证证 0.7% 证证证证证证证 证证证证 -0.4% 证证证证证 2.9% (证证-4.4% )证证证 CPI 证证证证证 0.54 证 证证证证证证证证证证证 证证 0.2%证证证 -0.1% 证证证证证证证证证证证 0.1% 证 核心 CPI 环 ...

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Trends - In November, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.7% year-on-year, with the growth rate expanding by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month, marking the highest increase since March 2024 [2] - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by food prices, which shifted from a decline to an increase, particularly fresh vegetable prices, which rose by 14.5% after a previous decline of 7.3% [2][3] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, maintaining a growth rate above 1% for three consecutive months [4] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.2% year-on-year in November, with the decline rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, ending a trend of narrowing declines [5] - The narrowing of price declines in certain industries, such as coal mining and washing, photovoltaic equipment manufacturing, and lithium-ion battery manufacturing, indicates the effectiveness of policies addressing "involution" competition [5][6] - Emerging industries are driving price increases in related sectors, with prices for external storage devices and components rising by 13.9% year-on-year [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the continuous recovery of consumer spending in November, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, marking the highest growth since March 2024 [1][3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, maintaining a growth rate above 1% for three consecutive months [5][6] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) experienced a year-on-year decline of 2.2%, with the drop rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, primarily due to a high comparison base from the previous year [9][10] Group 2 - In November, food prices increased by 0.5%, exceeding seasonal levels by 0.9 percentage points, largely driven by a significant rise in fresh vegetable prices, which turned from a 7.3% decline to a 14.5% increase [4][3] - Fresh vegetable prices rose by 7.2% month-on-month, significantly higher than the average seasonal decline of 3.2%, contributing approximately 0.17 percentage points to the month-on-month CPI increase [2][3] - The increase in food prices was complemented by rising prices in other categories, such as household appliances and clothing, which rose by 4.9% and 2.0% respectively [7] Group 3 - The article notes that the comprehensive rectification of "involution-style" competition has shown results, with price declines in industries such as coal mining, photovoltaic equipment manufacturing, and lithium-ion battery manufacturing narrowing for several consecutive months [1][10] - Emerging industries are experiencing rapid development, leading to price increases in related sectors, such as a 13.9% rise in external storage devices and components, and a 3.8% increase in graphite and carbon products manufacturing [11] - The effective release of consumer potential is reflected in price recoveries in various industries, including a 20.6% increase in the manufacturing of arts and crafts and ceremonial goods [11]

Group 1 - In November, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.7% year-on-year, marking the highest level since March 2024, with a 0.5 percentage point increase from October [1][3] - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by a turnaround in food prices, which shifted from a 2.9% decline in October to a 0.2% increase in November, positively impacting the CPI by 0.04 percentage points [3] - Fresh vegetable prices saw a significant increase, rising by 14.5% year-on-year in November after nine consecutive months of decline, while pork and poultry prices experienced a narrowing of their decline [3] Group 2 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.1% month-on-month in November, continuing the upward trend for the second consecutive month, driven by seasonal demand increases in coal and gas [5][6] - The PPI year-on-year decreased by 2.2%, with the decline slightly widening compared to October, primarily due to high comparison bases from the previous year [6] - Key industries such as coal mining, photovoltaic equipment manufacturing, and lithium-ion battery manufacturing saw a narrowing of their year-on-year price declines, indicating effective capacity management policies [7] Group 3 - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, maintaining a level above 1% for three consecutive months, with service prices and industrial consumer goods prices also showing positive growth [3][4] - Seasonal factors led to a decrease in service prices, with significant declines observed in accommodation, airfares, and travel-related costs [4] - Emerging industries are experiencing rapid growth, with notable year-on-year price increases in sectors such as external storage devices (13.9%), graphite and carbon products (3.8%), and integrated circuit manufacturing (1.7%) [7][8]