的客观观察维度，不构成任何投资建议、收益承诺或未来表现的保证，投资者须独立判断并承担风险 。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 螺纹需求环比下降，春节临近，现货成交持续萎缩。螺纹利润尚可，产量在利润支撑 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 下回升，库存累积。铁水产量变化不大，供需总体符合季节性规律。钢材供需层面矛 | | | | 盾有限， 中期维持区间运行。 | | | | 热卷产量及表需相对平稳，库存略有上升，绝对水平偏高。钢厂利润总体一般，节前 | | 热卷 | 谨慎看空 | 生产相对平稳。现货相对较弱，基差在平水附近波动。高库存、低基差对行情形成压 | | ★ | | 制， 中期维持区间运行。 | | 铁矿石 | | 钢厂进 口矿库存水平明显上升，补库进入尾声，铁水环比小幅回升，外矿发货明显减 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 少，铁矿基本面偏强，价格或坚挺。 | | 焦炭 | 谨慎看多 | 焦炭首轮提涨落地，二轮提涨有难度。近期焦企利润明显改善，受生产惯性短期焦企 生产积极性尚可，供应量环比略增。从需求来看，铁 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Overnight US soybeans closed higher, and the Dalian soybean meal futures may follow with a rebound and fluctuate; the spot price of soybeans is stable, and the futures price will fluctuate [1] - Despite the bearish USDA February supply and demand data, the soybean price still closed higher, and some brokers are optimistic about the increase in US soybean exports and tightening of inventory [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - Futures: DCE soybean No.1 2605 closed at 4,499 yuan/ton during the day session, up 107 yuan (+2.44%), and 4,483 yuan/ton at night session, up 24 yuan (+0.54%); DCE soybean meal 2605 closed at 2,734 yuan/ton during the day session, down 11 yuan (-0.40%), and 2,748 yuan/ton at night session, up 15 yuan (+0.55%); CBOT soybean 03 closed at 1,123.25 cents/bushel, up 13.5 cents (+1.22%); CBOT soybean meal 03 closed at 301 dollars/short ton, up 3.4 dollars (+1.14%) [1] - Spot: In Shandong, the price of soybean meal (43%) is 3,040 - 3,100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in East China, the price in Taizhou Huifu is 3,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; in South China, the price is 3,040 - 3,050 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan to unchanged from the previous day [1] - Main Industry Data: The trading volume of soybean meal is 4.53 million tons per day, and the inventory is 88.16 million tons per week [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - On February 10, CBOT soybean futures closed higher due to the optimistic outlook for US soybean demand. The USDA raised Brazil's soybean production forecast to 180 million tons, maintained Argentina's at 48.5 million tons, and raised the global soybean ending stocks to 125.51 million tons. The USDA kept the US soybean ending stocks forecast at 350 million bushels [1][3] - Some brokers are optimistic that US soybean exports will increase due to China's increased purchase target. Brazilian soybeans in Mato Grosso have quality problems due to excessive rainfall [3] 3. Trend Strength - The trend strength of soybean meal is +1, and that of soybean No.1 is 0, referring to the price fluctuations of the main contracts during the day session on the reporting day [3]

商 品 研 究 2026 年 02 月 11 日 焦炭：多头止盈，震荡偏弱 焦煤：多头止盈，震荡偏弱 刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023649 liuyuwu2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 焦煤焦炭基本面数据 | | 110 | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | JM2605 | 1119 | -28 | -2.4% | | 期货价格 | | 12605 | 1665 | -38.5 | -2. 3% | | | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2605 | 711282 | 499139 | 29997 | | | | J2605 | 13895 | 36423 | 1514 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | | 临汾低硫主焦 吕梁低硫主焦 | 1570 1483 | 1570 1483 | 0 0 | | | 焦煤 | 吕梁瘦主焦煤 | 1266 | 1266 | 0 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - C3 raw materials for PP are relatively strong, but the valuation repair is limited. The overall fundamentals at the end of the year provide limited support, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH units under deep losses [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of PP2605 yesterday was 6688, with a daily increase of 0.87%, trading volume of 298,300, and a change in open interest of -1,773 [1] - **Basis and Spread Changes**: The basis of the 05 contract yesterday was -148 (compared to -150 the day before), and the 05 - 09 contract spread was -19 (compared to -31 the day before) [1] - **Important Spot Prices**: In North China, it was 6,510 yuan/ton (compared to 6,520 the day before); in East China, it was 6,540 yuan/ton (compared to 6,480 the day before); in South China, it remained at 6,690 yuan/ton [1] Spot News - The market is volatile. Upstream pre - sale pressure is not large, downstream is gradually on holiday, trading atmosphere is average, basis is weakly stable, and warehouse receipts are at a high level. The PP US dollar market price has increased, but overseas suppliers' enthusiasm for quoting to China is low. Exports are affected by the strengthening exchange rate and the rising domestic market, and downstream continues to purchase on a rigid - demand basis, with little improvement in trading [1] Market Condition Analysis - **Cost Side**: Crude oil and propane prices are volatile. There is a valuation differentiation within olefins, and the valuation of PE in terms of internal, external, and upstream profit margins is higher than that of PP [2] - **Supply Side**: There is no new production before the 2605 contract, and the game between existing supply and demand intensifies [2] - **Demand Side**: Downstream new orders follow up on a rigid - demand basis. At the end of the year, the overall fundamental support is limited. PDH profit on the cost side remains at a low level. Multiple PDH units in South China have given maintenance expectations, and some are inquiring about propane raw materials for the end of March. Under deep PDH losses, attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH units [2] Trend Intensity - PP trend intensity is 0 [3]

Report Summary of Baocheng Futures' Rebar Morning Report (February 11, 2026) 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The supply and demand pattern of rebar is weak. Although the supply has shrunk due to production cuts by construction steel mills, the high inventory level limits the positive effect. Meanwhile, the demand has also weakened, with high - frequency demand indicators declining and at the lowest level in the same lunar period in recent years. The steel price is under pressure and is expected to maintain an oscillating bottom - seeking trend, with cost support as a relative positive factor. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term view is oscillating and weakening, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is also oscillating and weakening. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is the weak supply - demand pattern and the steel price oscillating at a low level [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply of rebar has contracted as construction steel mills have reduced production, with the weekly output of rebar decreasing month - on - month. However, the high inventory level limits the positive impact. The demand for rebar has also weakened, with high - frequency demand indicators dropping and being at the lowest level in the same lunar period in recent years. The weak demand pattern remains unchanged and continues to drag down the steel price. The steel price is under pressure, and the cost support is a positive factor. The steel price is expected to oscillate and seek the bottom, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For PTA, recently it has turned to weekly inventory accumulation, with its processing fee and PXN compressed. Considering the improved cash - flow in downstream sectors, limited potential for PX supply increase at current valuation, and no obvious load increase in TA devices, the valuation is becoming reasonable. One can focus on phased positive spreads and long - position opportunities [1] - For MEG, after the recent compression of its valuation, the reduction in supply has further increased. Although short - term inventory accumulation continues, the certainty of inventory reduction in the far - month at the current price has increased. During the production - expansion cycle, its overall elasticity is limited, and one can focus on short - term put - selling opportunities [4] - For polyester staple fiber, the downstream seasonality is expected to continue to weaken, and it has entered the pre - holiday load - reduction stage. The absolute inventory pressure is not large, with low - to - medium valuation and weak driving force, and the overall contradiction is limited. One should pay attention to the situation of warehouse receipts [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Device and load**: Some PTA devices restarted, with the operating rate rising month - on - month. Polyester load continued to decline, and inventory continued to accumulate [1] - **Price and spread**: The basis strengthened slightly, and the spot processing fee weakened month - on - month. PX restarted in China, with the overseas load rising slightly. PXN continued to contract month - on - month, and both disproportionation and isomerization benefits weakened. The aromatics spread between the US and Asia remained weak [1] - **Transaction information**: The average daily basis of PTA spot transactions was 2605(-60), and Dushan Energy's 2.5 million - ton device was under maintenance [1] MEG - **Device and load**: Near - term domestic oil - based production restarted while coal - based production was under maintenance, with the overall operating rate rising slightly. The arrival at ports was stable, and the port inventory continued to increase significantly at the beginning of next week. The forecast of arrivals during the week declined slightly [4] - **Price and spread**: The basis weakened slightly, and the coal - based production benefit contracted [4] - **Transaction information**: The basis of MEG spot transactions was against 05(-112), and Shanxi Woneneng's 300,000 - ton device was under maintenance [4] Polyester Staple Fiber - **Device and load**: The pre - holiday maintenance of some devices continued, with the operating rate further dropping to 77.7%. The sales were weak, and the inventory increased month - on - month [4] - **Price and spread**: The spot processing fee improved month - on - month. The operating rate of the polyester yarn end continued to decline, and both raw material inventory and finished - product inventory remained stable. The benefit remained stable month - on - month [4] - **Transaction information**: The spot price was around 6594, and the market basis was around - 70 against 03 [4] Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber - **Price information**: There were daily and weekly changes in the prices of various types of rubber, such as美金泰混,美金泰标, etc. For example, the weekly change of美金泰混 was 25 [4] - **Spread and profit information**: There were also changes in various spreads and processing profits, like the spread between混合 and RU主力, and the processing profit of泰标 [4] Styrene - Related Products - **Price information**: The prices of ethylene, pure benzene, styrene, and related products changed daily. For example, the price of EPS (East China general) decreased by 105 from February 9th to 10th [6] - **Profit information**: The domestic profits of ABS, EPS, PS, and other products also changed. For example, the domestic profit of ABS decreased by 80 from February 9th to 10th [6] - **Operating rate information**: The operating rates of EPS, ABS, and PS had their own trends over time [6] POY - **Cash - flow information**: The POY cash - flow had a certain trend from 2020 to 2026 [7]

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2026-02-11 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 | 2604 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，合成胶震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

2026年02月11日 星期三 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 期货研究 | | 收缩为价格提供上行潜力，关注后续检修停产情况。 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 风险提示：减产不及预期。 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 市场表现：周二早盘平开，全天震荡下行。主力 05 合约收于 8375 元/吨，较上个交易日减少 75 元/吨，收 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 盘价比-0.89%，持仓量增加 8477 手至 30.3 万手。品种沉淀资金增加 0.66 亿，今日仓单量增加 1368 手至 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 18117 手。 | | | | | | | | | | | | 工 | 32 基本面：供给端，本周开炉数量较上周减少 台，主要减量源于新疆地区。需求端，多晶硅和有机硅行业均 | | | | | | | | | | | | 业 | 在推进反内卷。多晶硅 2 月产 ...

连续两年多，金银经历了一大波大涨和高位史诗级暴跌。见证历史后，一则关于"中财期货精准做空白银，三天爆赚36亿"的消息在市场流传。这家公司背 后被称为"北京大空头"的神秘人到底是谁？ 文丨金融八卦女频道 作者：兴华 连续两年多，金银经历了一大波大涨和高位史诗级暴跌，尤其是白银，冲破120美元/盎司的新高之后，连续3个交易日暴跌40%。 见证历史后，一则关于"边锡明中财期货精准做空白银，三天爆赚36亿"的消息在市场流传。 这位边锡明就是中财期货的实控人，被外媒起了外号"北京大空头"。 · · · 一轮金银暴涨暴跌，金店经历了排队买金，到排队回收。 而股市和期货市场，才是真的血雨腥风，有人在金银铜行情中爆赚百亿，有人在股市中坐看身价翻番。 有的人出身实业做期货，有的人出身期货转行股市投资化身牛散，顶级交易员们在市场中，又又又刷新了历史。 1. / 一轮行情爆赚百亿， 神秘"北京空头"到底是谁/ 据测算，中财期货席位在近期白银价格崩盘前建立了大规模空头头寸，这笔逆势布局的收益已超过5亿美元（约合36亿元人民币）。 最近三年内，中财期货席位连续做多黄金、铜，做空白银，已经赚了将近40亿美元（约280亿人民币）。 不过， ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has approved a plan for futures investment and hedging activities for 2025, with a maximum margin of 400 million yuan for hedging and 100 million yuan for futures trading, aiming to enhance capital efficiency and reduce costs [1][2]. Group 1: Approval Process - On September 8, 2025, the company’s board approved the proposal for hedging and derivatives trading for the year 2025, with a maximum margin of 400 million yuan for hedging and 100 million yuan for futures trading [1]. - The proposal was further ratified at the fourth extraordinary shareholders' meeting on September 24, 2025 [1]. Group 2: Progress of Derivatives Trading - As of January 2026, the company estimates that the futures investment trading will generate approximately 62.51 million yuan in investment income and floating profits, which is expected to positively impact the net profit for 2026 [2]. Group 3: Risk Control Measures - The company adheres to legal, prudent, and safe principles in futures trading, but acknowledges risks such as market risk, funding risk, liquidity risk, internal control risk, policy risk, applicable law risk, political and policy risk, and economic risk [3][5][6]. - To mitigate these risks, the company plans to manage its own funds for derivatives investment carefully, conduct regular audits, and stay informed about relevant laws and political situations [7][8].