Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract and synthetic rubber futures 2601 contract are expected to run strongly on November 15, 2025, with a short - term weak trend, a medium - term oscillating trend, and an intraday strong trend [1][5][7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: weak; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: strong; Overall reference: strongly running [1][5] - **Core Logic**: The US Senate's key step towards ending the longest federal government "shutdown" has re - inspired investors' risk appetite, and market optimism has recovered. After the enhancement of macro factors, combined with the optimistic domestic automobile production and sales data in the rubber market. The Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract maintained an oscillating and stable trend on the night of Thursday, and is expected to maintain an oscillating and strong trend on Friday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: weak; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: strong; Overall reference: strongly running [1][7] - **Core Logic**: The US Senate has reached an agreement to end the federal government "shutdown", market optimism has recovered, and investors' risk appetite has been boosted. After the enhancement of macro factors, combined with the optimistic domestic automobile production and sales data in the rubber market. The market has shifted from "expectation - driven" to "reality - dominated", and investors' sentiment has become cautious. The domestic synthetic rubber futures 2601 contract showed an oscillating and stable trend on the night of Thursday, and is expected to maintain a strong trend on Friday [7]

Report Overview - Date: November 14, 2025 - Institution: Guotai Junan Futures - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Black Series 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report analyzes various black series commodities including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs, providing views on their market trends such as price movements and supply - demand situations [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Trend**: Accumulated inventory pressure materialized, prices declined from high levels [2][4] - **Fundamentals**: Futures price was 774.0 yuan/ton, up 1.44% (11.0 yuan/ton); Open interest decreased by 29,119 hands to 501,233 hands. Imported ore prices rose slightly, and the basis between futures and some spot decreased [4] - **News**: On November 12, local time, US President Trump signed a federal government temporary appropriation bill, ending a 43 - day government shutdown [4] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [4] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Trend**: Decline in apparent demand data narrowed, prices fluctuated widely [2][6] - **Fundamentals**: Rebar RB2601 closed at 3,046 yuan/ton, up 0.23% (7 yuan/ton); Hot - rolled coil HC2601 closed at 3,254 yuan/ton, down 0.12% (4 yuan/ton). Open interest of both decreased [6] - **News**: On November 13, steel output, inventory, and apparent demand data were released. In early November 2025, key steel enterprises' steel inventory, production data, and China's steel import and export data were also reported [7][8] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [9] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Trend**: Cost provided bottom support, prices fluctuated widely [2][10] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of different contracts had small changes. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese were stable, and some raw material prices changed slightly. Basis and spreads also changed [10] - **News**: New silicon - iron furnaces were put into production, and steel mills' tender information for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese was released. NMT announced the manganese ore shipping price for December 2025 [10][11][12][13] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Trend**: Coke followed the market downward; Coking coal's supply expectation was volatile, and valuation declined [2][14][15] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of coke and coking coal decreased slightly. Spot prices of most coking coal and coke varieties were stable, and the basis and spreads changed [15] - **News**: The National Development and Reform Commission organized an energy supply meeting for the 2025 - 2026 heating season [16] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1 (weakly bearish) [16] Logs - **Trend**: Prices fluctuated repeatedly [2][17] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of different log contracts had small changes, trading volume of some contracts increased significantly, and open interest had different trends. Spot prices were mostly stable [18] - **News**: Customs总署 decided to lift the suspension of US log imports from November 10, 2025 [20] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [20]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bearish bias, with a driving force for a downward trend but limited operability on the market) [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bearish bias, with a driving force for a downward trend but limited operability on the market) [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bearish bias, with a driving force for a downward trend but limited operability on the market) [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bearish bias, with a driving force for a downward trend but limited operability on the market) [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short-term long/short trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait-and-see approach) [1] Core Views - The market is pessimistic about crude oil prices due to factors such as OPEC's adjustment of the balance sheet and increased US API crude oil inventories, and there is still room for prices to decline within the year [2] - Fuel oil prices follow the cost side down, while the low-sulfur market's fundamentals have improved, and the previously arranged strategy of widening the high-low sulfur spread has gradually materialized [2] - The decline of asphalt has slowed down, but the fundamentals are still bearish in the medium and long term [3] - The international LPG market is strong, with tight supply and improved demand, so LPG is expected to fluctuate upward [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices dropped significantly, with the SC12 contract falling 3.66%. OPEC's November report adjusted the balance sheet from shortage to balance, and last week's US API crude oil inventories increased by 1.3 million barrels [2] - Since November, the crude oil monthly spread and spot premium/discount have weakened again, and there is still room for prices to decline within the year. Continuously monitor opportunities to short on price rebounds [2] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices followed the cost side down due to the pessimistic sentiment from OPEC's balance sheet adjustment. The main support for high-sulfur fuel oil comes from supply risks caused by Russia's refinery capacity constraints, but increased Middle Eastern high-sulfur resources form a hedge [2] - The demand side is weak, with the end of the Middle Eastern power generation peak season, the easing of the Israel-Palestine conflict, and expected early issuance of 2026 crude oil quotas [2] - The low-sulfur market benefits from supply pressure relief and support from the transfer production logic. The fundamentals have improved in the fourth quarter, and the previously arranged strategy of widening the high-low sulfur spread has gradually materialized, and it can be considered to take profits in a timely manner [2] Asphalt - The decline of asphalt has slowed down under the background of a sharp drop in crude oil prices, and the 2601 contract has certain support at 3000 yuan/ton [3] - The poor shipment volume has falsified the expectation of rush demand in the "14th Five-Year Plan" closing year and released a negative signal that demand is lower than the same period last year [3] - Commercial inventory destocking has slowed down, and the year-on-year increase in social inventory has expanded. Fundamentals are still bearish in the medium and long term [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The international LPG market is strong, with tight supply of imported resources. Improved profitability of butane dehydrogenation units has boosted downstream chemical plant operating rates, and cold weather has increased combustion demand [4] - Refinery and port storage rates have decreased, and the supply-demand relationship has tightened marginally, so LPG is expected to fluctuate upward [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪铜**: Today, Shanghai copper first declined and then rose, recovering the overnight high at the end of the session, with an increase in open interest. At the macro - level, the market warmed up, and precious metals and non - ferrous metals strengthened collectively. At the industrial level, as copper prices rose, downstream wait - and - see sentiment resurfaced. Sustainable attention can be paid to the pressure at the 88,000 yuan mark [7]. - **沪铝**: Today, Shanghai aluminum maintained a strong upward trend, with continuous increase in open interest. The main contract price of Shanghai aluminum stood above the 22,000 yuan mark, breaking through the high in May 2024. At the macro - level, the market may be trading on demand recovery or inflation expectations, and non - ferrous metals and precious metals generally rose. At the industrial level, the spot discounts of both Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum continued to decline, indicating that although inventories are currently low, spot goods are not in short supply. In the short term, aluminum prices broke through the 2024 high, showing strong upward momentum [8]. - **沪镍**: Today, Shanghai nickel fluctuated, with little change in open interest. Recently, while the non - ferrous sector was running strongly, nickel prices weakened against the trend, largely reflecting the weakness of the fundamentals. At the industrial level, as nickel prices weakened, the spot premium strengthened, providing some support for the futures price. Technically, attention can be paid to the long - short game at the 119,000 yuan mark [9]. 3. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On November 13th, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory was 198,000 tons, a decrease of 300 tons from Monday. SMM reported that the weekly operating rate of the enameled wire industry's machines rebounded 0.87 percentage points to 77.2%. Benefiting from the decline of copper prices to around 85,000 yuan/ton last week, the increase in new orders drove up the operating rate [11]. - **Aluminum**: On November 13th, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 614,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from Monday [11]. - **Nickel**: On November 13th, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2512 contract. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +3,800 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,620 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Russian nickel was +650 yuan/ton, with a price of 119,470 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Norwegian nickel was +2,450 yuan/ton, with a price of 121,270 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of nickel beans was +2,350 yuan/ton, with a price of 121,170 yuan/ton [12]. 4. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts such as domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [13][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: The related charts involve aluminum basis, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, SHFE - LME ratio, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), and aluminum rod inventory [24][26][28]. - **Nickel**: The charts cover nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [36][37][39].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term bullish, short - term with limited driving force, long - term strategic allocation value remains unchanged, ★★ [1] - Silver: Bullish, strong support at 12000, long - term hold, ★★ [1] - Copper: Long - term hold, recommend buying on dips near the moving average, ★ [1] - Zinc: Rebound, short - term narrow - range oscillation, long - term supply increase and demand decrease, short on rebounds, ★ [1] - Lead: Rebound, short - term price rebound, ★ [1] - Tin: Bullish, short - term price spike, ★★ [1] - Aluminum: Bullish, short - term price spike, ★★ [1] - Nickel: Bearish, price relatively weak, ★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: Range - bound, ★ [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish, buy at the lower end of the range, ★ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: High - level operation, take profit near the previous high, wait for low - buying opportunities, ★ [1] Core Views - The end of the US government shutdown, weak employment data expectations, and a weaker US dollar lead to a rise in market risk appetite, with precious metals and the non - ferrous sector showing positive sentiment. However, different metals have different supply - demand situations and price trends [1][7][11] - Gold and silver are supported by factors such as potential interest rate cuts and central bank purchases, with long - term strategic investment value [1][4] - Copper is expected to have a long - term upward trend due to tight copper concentrate supply and growing green copper demand [1][6][7] - Zinc has short - term supply - demand weakness, with inventory accumulation both at home and abroad, and a long - term trend of supply increase and demand decrease [1][10][11] - Aluminum is affected by overseas production cuts and inventory changes, with short - term price increases [1][14][15] - Nickel has weak terminal demand, with inventory accumulation and a relatively weak price trend [1][18][19] - Lithium carbonate has a tight supply - demand situation, with continuous inventory reduction, but there are also factors that may limit price increases [1][22][23] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Weak US data intensifies December interest rate cut predictions, and the market amplifies unexpected data, leading to strong performance of precious metals [2] - **Basic Logic**: The 43 - day US government shutdown is approaching an end, which may reduce Q4 economic growth. There are signs of widespread inflation slowdown, and the housing rental market is weak. China's central bank has continuously increased its gold reserves. In the long term, gold may benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and geopolitical restructuring [3][4] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, domestic gold has support at 935, and silver has strong support at 12000. Long - term value - oriented positions should be held [4] Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper oscillates upward [5][6] - **Industrial Logic**: In Q3 2025, the output of major global copper mines decreased by nearly 5% year - on - year, and the decline is expected to continue in Q4. Refined copper supply has shrunk. Consumption has entered the off - season, and the downstream start - up rate is weak year - on - year. Copper has been included in the US key minerals list [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: With the end of the US government shutdown, the market risk appetite has increased. Copper is expected to be bullish in the long term. It is recommended to buy on dips near the moving average with light positions. Long - term strategic positions should be held. The short - term trading range for Shanghai copper is [85000, 88000] yuan/ton, and for London copper is [10500, 11000] US dollars/ton [7] Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc rebounds after testing the support at 22500 [9][10] - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas zinc mine production has declined recently, leading to a short - term tightening of zinc concentrate supply. The processing fee for domestic zinc concentrate has continued to decline. Consumption is entering the off - season, and the galvanizing start - up rate has decreased. The zinc ingot export window has opened, and inventories at home and abroad have accumulated [10] - **Strategy Recommendation**: With the end of the US government shutdown, the market risk appetite has recovered, but zinc demand is weak. It is recommended to take profit on long positions on rebounds. In the long term, short on rebounds. The trading range for Shanghai zinc is [22400, 22800] yuan/ton, and for London zinc is [3000, 3100] US dollars/ton [11] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices rise and then fall, and alumina shows a relatively weak trend [12][13] - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas, the expectation of an end - of - year interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has weakened. There have been production cuts at overseas electrolytic aluminum plants, and it is expected that there will be further cuts in March next year. Domestic aluminum downstream processing start - up rates are decreasing. The alumina market is currently in an oversupply situation, but there may be some support from production cuts by high - cost enterprises [14] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profit on Shanghai aluminum positions on short - term rallies. Pay attention to the start - up changes of downstream processing enterprises. The main operating range is [21000 - 21900] yuan/ton [15] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices continue to decline, and stainless steel shows a weak trend [16][17] - **Industrial Logic**: The expectation of an end - of - year interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has weakened overseas. The inventory of nickel mines at domestic ports has decreased, but global nickel inventory has continued to accumulate. The stainless steel market is approaching the end of the peak season, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel. Pay attention to downstream consumption and stainless steel inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [118500 - 121000] yuan/ton [19] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2601 opens slightly higher, rises and then falls, with wide - range oscillations throughout the day [20][21] - **Industrial Logic**: The supply - demand situation remains tight, with continuous inventory reduction for 12 weeks and an expanding reduction amplitude. Domestic production has reached new highs, and imports are expected to increase in November. The terminal market is strong, but there are factors that may limit price increases [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on long positions near the previous high [85000 - 86600] [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - For most varieties (including rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferromanganese, and ferrosilicon), the overall sentiment is cautiously bullish, except for iron ore where it is recommended to stop loss on short positions [1]. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel Products**: After continuous declines, they are testing cost support. Rebar shows characteristics of weak supply and demand in the off - season, with a weakening of the support for raw materials from molten iron. Hot - rolled coil has a slight inventory pressure, and the demand support for raw materials is also weakening [3][4]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is shrinking, and contradictions are accumulating. The short - term price is firm, with the possibility of an increase in molten iron production in the future, and attention should be paid to the implementation of steel mill maintenance [6]. - **Coke**: The expectation of the fourth price increase is strengthening, but coke enterprises are still mostly in a loss state. With the decline in molten iron production and more blast furnace maintenance, there is a certain short - term replenishment demand. The market may fluctuate after a rapid decline [9]. - **Coking Coal**: The current supply - demand pattern remains intact. Domestic coal mine production has slightly increased, with low inventory levels and sufficient pre - sales orders. The market may fluctuate after a rapid decline [12]. - **Ferroalloys**: The steel procurement in November has started. For ferromanganese, the supply has slightly decreased but is still at a high level, and the inventory increase has slowed down. For ferrosilicon, the production area's operating rate has increased, and the demand has weakened, with a significant increase in inventory [15]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Rebar** - **Variety View**: Production and apparent demand have both decreased month - on - month, showing a weak supply - demand pattern in the off - season. Inventory has decreased month - on - month, but the decline is weaker than the seasonal pattern. The fundamental situation is generally balanced but on the weaker side. The support for raw materials from molten iron is gradually weakening [4]. - **Disk Operation Suggestion**: It has fallen to near the previous low, testing the support at 3000, and there may be fluctuations at low levels [5]. - **Hot - rolled Coil** - **Variety View**: Apparent demand and production have both declined, and inventory has increased slightly against the seasonal trend, indicating a certain inventory pressure. The demand support for raw materials from molten iron is weakening [4]. - **Disk Operation Suggestion**: It operates within a medium - term range, and there may be fluctuations after continuous short - term declines [5]. Iron Ore - **Variety View**: Molten iron production has decreased month - on - month, but there is an expectation of an increase due to the resumption of some blast furnaces. Steel mill maintenance information has increased, and attention should be paid to its implementation. Steel mills are reducing inventory while ports are accumulating inventory. The supply of imported iron ore has decreased, and the static fundamental situation is slightly bullish [6]. - **Disk Operation Suggestion**: Stop loss on short positions [7]. Coke - **Variety View**: The expectation of the fourth price increase is strengthening, and the profit of coke enterprises has slightly improved but is still mostly in a loss state. Molten iron production has declined again, steel mill profits are poor, and there is more blast furnace maintenance. However, the raw material inventory level is moderately low, and the short - term replenishment enthusiasm is okay. The market may fluctuate after a rapid decline [9]. - **Disk Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish, and it is advisable to leave the market and wait and see [10]. Coking Coal - **Variety View**: The National Development and Reform Commission has deployed energy supply guarantee work for the heating season. Domestically, coal mine production has slightly increased, with low inventory levels and sufficient pre - sales orders. The overall shipment situation is still good. The current supply - demand pattern has not been broken, and the market may fluctuate after a rapid decline [12]. - **Disk Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish, and it is advisable to leave the market and wait and see [13]. Ferroalloys - **Ferromanganese** - **Variety View**: The supply in the production area has slightly decreased but is still at a high level compared to the same period. Inventory has continued to increase from the previous period, but the increase rate has slowed down. The steel procurement in November has started, and a landmark steel mill plans to purchase 16,000 tons, a decrease of 500 tons compared to the previous month. Attention should be paid to the final pricing [15]. - **Disk Operation Suggestion**: The short - term cost side provides some support for the price, and it is cautiously bullish [16]. - **Ferrosilicon** - **Variety View**: The operating rate in the production area has continued to increase, the downstream demand has weakened marginally, and inventory has continued to increase significantly from the previous period [15]. - **Disk Operation Suggestion**: The short - term cost side provides some support for the price, but the fundamental situation has become looser. It is cautiously bullish [16].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Market sentiment is bullish, but due to the lack of obvious bullish drivers, it is recommended to be cautious when chasing long positions. Technical operations are advised, and attention should be paid to the opportunities of going long on dips. Keep an eye on the USDA report and the soybean planting situation in Brazil [1][3] - **Rapeseed Meal**: Market sentiment is bullish, but the rebound space of the main and near - month contracts may be limited due to the current fundamental factors. Focus on the subsequent progress of China - Canada trade [1][6] - **Palm Oil**: It has temporarily stopped falling and is in a consolidation phase. There is still a risk of inventory accumulation, so it is necessary to be cautious when chasing long positions. Pay attention to the fluctuations in import profits [1][8] - **Soybean Oil**: It is in a short - term rebound. Due to the lack of strong bullish drivers, it is treated as a rebound for the time being. In stage operations, pay attention to the opportunities of going long on dips. Monitor the progress of US biodiesel and China - US trade [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: It has stopped falling and rebounded in the short term. The zero - start of coastal oil mills, zero inventory of rapeseed, and a significant decline in port inventory have driven up the domestic rapeseed oil price [1] - **Cotton**: It is in a short - term adjustment. The international market is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term, while the domestic market is digesting the supply pressure of the new season. The consumption of cotton - related products may not be overly pessimistic in the future. Pay attention to the low - buying opportunities within the month and the impact of the USDA supply - demand balance sheet on the domestic market [1][12] - **Red Dates**: It is recommended to be cautiously bearish. The market is expected to be volatile and bearish, but considering the strong basis and possible production cuts, the downside space may be limited for the time being. Short - selling operations should be carried out at high levels based on the changes in the mainstream purchase price and purchase progress [1][15] - **Live Pigs**: Be vigilant about the rebound. The supply pressure in Q4 remains high. It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds for near - month contracts, be vigilant about the rebound risk of the 01 contract, and pay attention to the 03 contract. For arbitrage, focus on the reverse - spread opportunities during the downward repair of the far - month premium [1][18] Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Price and Spread**: The latest futures price of the main contract is 3059 yuan/ton, up 0.16% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 3097.71 yuan/ton, down 0.21%. The basis and spreads of different contracts have changed to varying degrees [2] - **Inventory and Supply - demand**: As of November 7, 2025, the national port soybean inventory is 1033.4 million tons, an increase of 70.5 million tons from last week. The soybean inventory of 125 oil mills is 761.95 million tons, an increase of 7.20%. The soybean meal inventory is 99.86 million tons, a decrease of 13.39%. The inventory days of domestic feed enterprises are 7.75 days, a decrease of 3.39% [3] Rapeseed Meal - **Price and Spread**: The latest futures price of the main contract is 2494 yuan/ton, down 0.24% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 2588.95 yuan/ton, down 1.09%. The basis and spreads of different contracts have changed [4] - **Inventory and Supply - demand**: As of November 7, the coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory is 0 million tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory is 0.5 million tons, a decrease of 0.21 million tons. The international rapeseed production has recovered, and the domestic rapeseed meal is in a de - stocking state, but the demand is in the off - season [6] Palm Oil - **Price and Spread**: The latest futures price of the main contract is 8744 yuan/ton, down 0.30% from the previous day. The national average price is 8755 yuan/ton, down 0.68%. The import cost has increased, and the basis and spreads of different contracts have changed [7] - **Inventory and Supply - demand**: As of November 7, 2025, the national key area commercial inventory is 59.73 million tons, an increase of 0.76%. The production in Malaysia in October has increased, and the export data varies. The palm oil is in a state of weakening supply - demand, with a continuous inventory accumulation expectation [8] Cotton - **Price and Spread**: The latest futures price of the main contract is 13515 yuan/ton, down 0.33% from the previous day. The spot price has a slight increase. The basis and spreads of different contracts have changed, and the spinning profit has improved [9] - **Inventory and Supply - demand**: The new cotton harvesting in the US, India, Pakistan, and Brazil is in progress. The domestic new cotton harvesting is nearly completed, the cost is basically locked, the inventory has increased, and the demand is showing signs of improvement [10][11] Red Dates - **Price and Spread**: The latest futures price of the main contract is 9365 yuan/ton, down 1.37% from the previous day. The spot price is relatively stable, the basis has changed, and the profit has decreased [13] - **Inventory and Supply - demand**: The Xinjiang main - producing area is in the concentrated harvesting stage, the inventory has increased, and the downstream demand for new products is weak [15] Live Pigs - **Price and Spread**: The latest futures price of the main contract is 11795 yuan/ton, up 0.34% from the previous day. The spot price has a slight increase, the basis and spreads of different contracts have changed [16] - **Inventory and Supply - demand**: The short - term supply pressure is not prominent, the medium - term supply pressure in Q4 is confirmed, and the long - term capacity reduction needs to be further promoted. The demand is gradually stabilizing, and the slaughter and sales volume have increased [17][18]

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The price of CBOT soybeans closed slightly higher on November 12, 2025, with position adjustments by traders ahead of the USDA's supply - demand report, but the price increase was limited due to insufficient Chinese purchases [2][4] - Analysts expect the US soybean yield to be 53.1 bushels per acre, lower than the USDA's September 12 estimate of 53.5 bushels per acre [4] - The market is concerned about the change in yield data and China's progress in purchasing 12 million tons of US soybeans by the end of the year, and China is facing a situation of soybean surplus after months of record - high imports [4] - The trend strength of soybean meal is +1, and that of soybean No.1 is 0, mainly referring to the price fluctuations of the main - contract futures on the day of the report [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybean No.1 2601 had a day - session closing price of 4127 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan, and a night - session closing price of 4113 yuan/ton; DCE soybean meal 2601 had a day - session closing price of 3059 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan, and a night - session closing price of 3052 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; CBOT soybean 01 was at 1134 cents per bushel, up 7.25 cents (+0.64%); CBOT soybean meal 12 was at 322 dollars per short ton, up 5.2 dollars (+1.64%) [2] - **Spot Basis**: In Shandong, the spot basis of soybean meal is M2601 + 10, down 10 to flat compared to the previous day; in East China, it is flat; in South China, the spot basis of Fangchenggang Aojia is M2601 - 30, flat, and that of Hainan Aosika is M2601 + 40, flat [2] - **Industrial Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 210,500 tons per day, down from 234,000 tons in the previous period, and the inventory was 963,100 tons per week, down from 1,059,300 tons in the previous period [2] Macro and Industry News - On November 12, 2025, CBOT soybean futures closed slightly higher. Traders adjusted positions ahead of the USDA's supply - demand report, but the price increase was limited due to insufficient Chinese purchases [2][4] - Analysts expect the US soybean yield to be 53.1 bushels per acre, lower than the USDA's September 12 estimate of 53.5 bushels per acre [4] - The market is concerned about the change in yield data and China's progress in purchasing 12 million tons of US soybeans by the end of the year. Since the leaders' meeting last month, China has only made small - scale purchases of US agricultural products, and China is facing a situation of soybean surplus [4] Trend Strength - The trend strength of soybean meal is +1, and that of soybean No.1 is 0, mainly referring to the price fluctuations of the main - contract futures on the day of the report [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [2] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [2] - L: Bearish continuation [2] - PP: Bearish continuation [2] - PVC: Bearish continuation [2] - PX: Cautiously bullish [2] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [4] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [4] - Methanol: Sideways at the bottom [4] - Urea: Short on rallies [4] - Natural gas: Cautiously bullish [7] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [7] - Glass: Bearish continuation [7] - Soda ash: Bearish rebound [7] Core Views - Crude oil: The oversupply in the off - season remains the core driver, and the upside of oil prices is under pressure. OPEC's latest monthly report predicts an oversupply in 2026, and OPEC+ plans to expand production in December and then pause in early next year. With the start of the consumption off - season and OPEC+ still in the expansion cycle, the pressure of oversupply is rising, and oil prices face significant downward pressure [2]. - LPG: Weak oil prices bring negative impacts to the cost side, and the trend of LPG is weak. Although the supply - demand fundamentals have improved, the cost - side pressure restricts its upward movement [2]. - L: The decline in oil prices and the restart of devices may cause the market to continue to bottom. The supply is loose, and the demand for replenishing inventory is insufficient, with weak cost support [2]. - PP: The sharp decline in coking coal and the weak cost side lead to a weak fundamental situation. There is high pressure to destock, and oil prices still face the risk of further decline in the medium term [2]. - PVC: The market follows coking coal to find the bottom. Although the inventory is high, the low - valuation support limits the further decline space. The market maintains a high premium, and industries are advised to hedge at high prices [2]. - PX: The supply - side devices have increased their loads, and the demand has improved recently but is expected to weaken. The PXN and PX - MX spreads are relatively high, and the crude oil supply - demand pattern is loose. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing up [2]. - PTA: The processing fee is generally low, and the planned device maintenance may relieve the supply - side pressure. The terminal demand has slightly improved, but the rebound height may be limited due to the pressure on crude oil [4]. - Ethylene glycol: Domestic device maintenance has increased, and new device production and the resumption of maintenance devices will increase supply pressure. The demand has improved but is expected to weaken, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in November. It has low valuation but lacks upward drivers [4]. - Methanol: High inventory suppresses the rebound of prices. The supply - side pressure is still large, and the demand performance is average. The cost - side support is weak and stable, and the overall fundamentals remain weak [4]. - Urea: The supply - side pressure is expected to increase, and the demand has slightly improved. The inventory in factories is accumulating, and under the background of "export quota system" and "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices", the market has a ceiling and a floor. It is necessary to be vigilant against the downward risk [4]. - Natural gas: As the temperature drops, the consumption peak season arrives, and the demand has a warming expectation, making gas prices likely to rise and difficult to fall [7]. - Asphalt: The cost - side oil price has回调ed, and the supply - demand fundamentals are loose. The demand has entered the off - season, and the valuation is high. The price center still has room to move down [7]. - Glass: The fundamentals are weak, and the market continues to look for support downward. The supply is unlikely to decline further, and the demand support is insufficient [7]. - Soda ash: The increase in photovoltaic daily melting volume and device maintenance has led to a short - term rebound. However, in the long - term, the supply will remain loose [7]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices dropped significantly. WTI rose 1.43%, Brent rose 1.72%, and SC fell 0.17% [9]. - **Basic Logic**: The core driver is the oversupply in the off - season, and the short - term driver is OPEC's prediction of oversupply in 2026. OPEC predicts an increase of 600,000 barrels per day in non - OPEC production in 2026, and the global demand increments in 2025 and 2026 are 1.3 million barrels per day and 1.38 million barrels per day respectively. As of the week ending October 31, US crude oil inventory increased by 5.2 million barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 4.7 million barrels, distillate inventory decreased by 643,000 barrels, and strategic crude oil reserve increased by 5.924 million barrels per day [10][11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, OPEC+ is expanding production, and oil prices are in a low - price range. Technically, although the short - term trend is strong, the upward pressure is increasing. It is recommended to partially take profits on previous short positions. Pay attention to the range of [460 - 475] for SC [12]. LPG - **Market Review**: On November 12, the PG main contract closed at 4,349 yuan/ton, up 0.39% month - on - month. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China showed different changes [14]. - **Basic Logic**: The trend is tied to the cost - side oil price, which is weak. The supply has decreased slightly, and the demand has shown some resilience. The inventory in ports and factories has declined, and the import profit has increased, with expected higher future imports [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the central price is expected to decline. The current ratio of LPG to crude oil is similar to that of the same period last year, with a low basis and high valuation. It is recommended to hold short positions and pay attention to the range of [4300 - 4400] for PG [16]. L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 6,788 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan. The basis and other indicators also had corresponding changes [19]. - **Basic Logic**: The sharp decline in oil prices and the restart of devices may cause the market to continue to bottom. The supply is loose, and the demand for replenishing inventory is insufficient. The oil price still has a downward risk in the medium term, with weak cost support [20]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: At the absolute low price, partially reduce short positions. In the medium - to - long - term, wait for rebounds to go short. Pay attention to the range of [6700 - 6850] for L [20]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6,429 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan. The basis and other indicators changed accordingly [23]. - **Basic Logic**: The sharp decline in coking coal leads to a weak fundamental situation. The inventory in the upper and middle reaches is at a high level, and the demand support is insufficient. OPEC+ is still in the production - increasing cycle, and oil prices face the risk of further decline in the medium term [24]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: At the absolute low price, short - term decline stops, and short positions can be reduced. In the medium - to - long - term, wait for rebounds to go short. Pay attention to the range of [6350 - 6500] for PP [24]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 4,572 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan. The basis and other indicators changed [27]. - **Basic Logic**: The market follows coking coal to find the bottom. The basis is strengthening, and the warehouse receipts are decreasing from a high level. In the short - term, during the macro - policy window period, the market returns to weak fundamentals. Although the inventory is high, the low - valuation support limits the further decline space [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The market maintains a high premium. Industries are advised to hedge at high prices. Be cautious when chasing short due to low - valuation support. Pay attention to the range of [4500 - 4650] for V [28]. PX - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side devices at home and abroad have increased their loads. The PXN and PX - MX spreads are at relatively high levels this year. The demand has improved recently but is expected to weaken. The crude oil supply - demand pattern is loose, and PX follows the cost in the short term [29]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be cautious when chasing up on a single - side trade. For arbitrage, pay attention to expanding the downstream processing margin (i.e., go long on PTA and short on PX). Pay attention to the range of [6680 - 6770] for PX [30]. PTA - **Market Review**: The prices of TA contracts and spot prices, as well as basis, spreads, and other indicators, showed corresponding changes [31]. - **Basic Logic**: The processing fee is low, and the planned device maintenance may relieve the supply - side pressure. The terminal demand has slightly improved, but the stability needs to be tracked. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in November. Although the fundamentals have improved in the short term, the upward space is limited due to the pressure on crude oil [32]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: On a single - side trade, look for opportunities to go long on dips. For arbitrage, pay attention to expanding the TA processing margin (i.e., go long on PTA and short on PX). Pay attention to the range of [4600 - 4670] for TA [33]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: The prices of EG contracts and spot prices, as well as basis, spreads, and other indicators, changed [34]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic device maintenance has increased, and new device production and the resumption of maintenance devices will increase supply pressure. The demand has improved but is expected to weaken. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in November. The valuation is low, but it lacks upward drivers and follows the cost in the short term [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is in a low - level oscillation. Look for opportunities to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of [3835 - 3900] for EG [36]. Methanol - **Basic Logic**: High inventory suppresses the rebound of prices. The supply - side pressure is still large, and the demand performance is average. The cost - side support is weak and stable, and the overall fundamentals remain weak [39]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is in a weak sideways trend. Hold short positions cautiously at low valuations. For arbitrage, pay attention to the MA1 - 3 reverse spread [4]. Urea - **Market Review**: The prices of urea contracts and spot prices, as well as basis, spreads, and other indicators, changed [42]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side pressure is expected to increase, and the demand has slightly improved. The inventory in factories is accumulating, and under the background of "export quota system" and "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices", the market has a ceiling and a floor. There are short - term positive factors, but be vigilant against the downward risk [43]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Although the export boosts market sentiment, the fundamentals remain weak. Be vigilant against the risk of the market falling back after rising. Pay attention to the range of [1620 - 1650] for UR [44]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: On November 12, the NG main contract closed at $4.764 per million British thermal units, up 4.47% month - on - month. Spot prices in different regions also changed [47]. - **Basic Logic**: The decline in global temperature leads to an increase in demand for combustion and heating, and the gas price is likely to rise. The domestic LNG retail profit has increased. The supply - side has some changes, and the demand has shown certain characteristics. The US natural gas inventory has increased [48]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: As the temperature cools down, the demand for combustion and heating increases, and the price is likely to rise. However, due to sufficient supply and recent sharp increases, the upward momentum has weakened, and the upward space is limited. Pay attention to the range of [4.415 - 4.581] for NG [49]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: On November 12, the BU main contract closed at 3,063 yuan/ton, up 0.43% month - on - month. Spot prices in different regions changed [52]. - **Basic Logic**: The trend is mainly tied to the cost - side oil price, which is weak. The cost - side support is decreasing. The supply in November is expected to decline, and the demand has also decreased. The inventory of sample enterprises has decreased [53]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. [51] Glass - **Basic Logic**: The fundamentals are weak, and the market continues to look for support downward. The supply is unlikely to decline further, and the demand support is insufficient [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, there is support from cold repairs. In the medium - to - long - term, the demand from the real - estate sector is weak, and the loose pattern is difficult to change. Go short on rebounds [7]. Soda Ash - **Basic Logic**: The increase in photovoltaic daily melting volume and device maintenance has led to a short - term rebound. However, in the long - term, the supply will remain loose [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The market maintains a premium structure. Industries are advised to sell and hedge at high prices. Technically, it is bullish in the short term, but go short on rebounds in the medium - to - long - term [7].

2025年11月13日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：反弹高度有限，警惕二次下探 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆企稳，豆棕继续做扩 | 2 | | 豆粕：美豆收涨，或跟随反弹震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：现货稳定，盘面震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：短期偏强 | 6 | | 白糖：关注印度压榨情况 | 8 | | 棉花：缺乏上涨驱动期价小幅回落 | 9 | | 鸡蛋：维持震荡 | 11 | | 生猪：肥标价差走弱，驱动渐显 | 12 | | 花生：关注油厂动向 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 棕榈油：反弹高度有限，警惕二次下探 豆油：美豆企稳，豆棕继续做扩 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 11 月 13 日 商 品 研 究 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,744 | -0. ...