1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats - Palm oil: There is a risk of a downward trend in Malaysian palm oil if it breaks below 4000 ringgit. In China, the futures of Dalian palm oil are expected to be weakly viewed in the short - term due to high port inventories and the potential weakness of Malaysian palm oil. - Soybean oil: CBOT soybean oil may have a narrow - range oscillation in the short - term. In China, the fundamentals of soybean oil are positive as inventories are decreasing, and imports are expected to decline in January [1]. - Rapeseed oil: Attention should be paid to whether COFCO can start pressing on time. After starting, it may relieve the shortage in South China, but there is a risk of further price decline in the futures market [1]. Cotton - ICE US cotton is expected to maintain a volatile trend. In the Chinese market, cotton prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term due to factors such as faster sales progress, cost solidification, and expected reduction in planting area in 2026 [3]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar is expected to trade in a range of 14.5 - 15.5 cents per pound in the short - term. In the Chinese market, sugar prices are expected to be weak and volatile at a low level due to the expected supply surplus and cautious market sentiment [4]. Jujube - The spot market of jujube has weak trading, but the new - season warehouse receipt cost provides some support to the futures market. Attention should be paid to pre - Spring Festival stocking and inventory reduction progress [6]. Corn and Corn Starch - Corn prices are expected to be volatile in the short - term due to the co - existence of farmers' reluctance to sell and policy - supported supply. However, policy releases and pre - Spring Festival selling pressure may suppress prices [8]. Pork - Spot pork prices are back in a volatile pattern. The futures market is expected to be range - bound in the short - term. Although there is some support from secondary fattening, the overall supply in January is relatively loose [10]. Meal - US soybeans have a technical rebound, but the global supply - demand pattern and South American production expectations still suppress the market. In China, soybean meal is expected to be slightly stronger and volatile in the short - term [13]. Eggs - The supply pressure of eggs may ease as the number of laying hens is expected to decrease. Although the market sentiment is positive due to approaching Spring Festival stocking, considering the relatively loose supply, the main contract is expected to be volatile at a low level [15]. 3. Summary by Catalog Oils and Fats - **Prices**: On January 5, 2026, the spot price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil remained unchanged at 8410 yuan/ton, and the futures price of Y2605 decreased by 0.08% to 7856 yuan/ton. The spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil decreased by 1.16% to 8490 yuan/ton, and the futures price of P2605 decreased by 1.12% to 8488 yuan/ton. The spot price of Jiangsu third - grade rapeseed oil increased by 0.20% to 10050 yuan/ton, and the futures price of OI605 decreased by 0.47% to 9044 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spreads**: The soybean - palm oil spread (2605) increased by 12.47% to - 632 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed - soybean oil spread (2605) decreased by 3.02% to 1188 yuan/ton [1]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: On January 5, 2026, the price of cotton 2605 increased by 0.48% to 14655 yuan/ton, and the price of cotton 2609 increased by 0.58% to 14845 yuan/ton. The price of ICE US cotton increased by 0.98% to 64.64 cents per pound [3]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton increased by 0.32% to 15442 yuan/ton, and the CC Index: 3128B increased by 0.38% to 15615 yuan/ton [3]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: On January 5, 2026, the price of sugar 2605 increased by 0.11% to 5257 yuan/ton, and the price of sugar 2609 increased by 0.06% to 5269 yuan/ton. The price of ICE raw sugar increased by 0.82% to 14.72 cents per pound [4]. - **Spot Market**: The Nanning spot price decreased by 0.37% to 5330 yuan/ton, and the Kunming spot price decreased by 0.19% to 5200 yuan/ton [4]. Jujube - **Futures Market**: On January 5, 2026, the price of jujube 2601 increased by 1.82% to 9250 yuan/ton, and the price of the main contract jujube 2605 decreased by 0.11% to 8955 yuan/ton [6]. - **Spot Market**: The Cangzhou super - grade spot price decreased by 0.63% to 9460 yuan/ton, and the first - grade spot price remained unchanged at 8200 yuan/ton [6]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: On January 5, 2026, the price of corn 2603 decreased by 0.09% to 2224 yuan/ton, and the Jinzhou Port FAS price decreased by 0.86% to 2310 yuan/ton [8]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2603 decreased by 0.24% to 2509 yuan/ton, and the Changchun spot price remained unchanged at 2570 yuan/ton [8]. Pork - **Futures Market**: On January 5, 2026, the price of the main contract decreased by 25.86% to 1190 yuan/ton, and the price of pork 2605 decreased by 0.45% to 12110 yuan/ton [10]. - **Spot Market**: The Henan spot price decreased by 4.10% to 12850 yuan/ton, and the Shandong spot price decreased by 1.15% to 12900 yuan/ton [10]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3100 yuan/ton, and the futures price of M2605 increased by 0.18% to 2754 yuan/ton [13]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.41% to 2440 yuan/ton, and the futures price of RM2605 decreased by 0.17% to 2361 yuan/ton [13]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: On January 5, 2026, the price of the egg 03 contract increased by 1.39% to 2992 yuan per 500KG, and the price of the egg 04 contract increased by 1.15% to 3214 yuan per 500KG [15]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price increased by 0.23% to 3.02 yuan per catty, and the egg - chick price remained unchanged at 2.80 yuan per chick [15].

Summary of Agricultural Products Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the agricultural products market, focusing on corn, soybeans, cotton, and sugar for the year 2025 and projections for 2026 [1][2][12]. Key Points Corn Market - The corn market in 2025 is expected to be supported by policy-driven stockpiling, but prices are projected to decline due to wheat substitution and high yield expectations [1][2]. - In October 2025, heavy rainfall in North China damaged corn quality, leading feed companies to shift to high-quality corn from Northeast China. Low inventory levels and pre-Spring Festival stocking demands may push prices higher in the short term [2][18]. - The planting income for corn in 2025 is among the best in recent years, with a decrease in land rental costs and an increase in grain prices by 150-200 RMB/ton compared to the previous year [4]. - The forecast for 2026 indicates that corn prices may rise but face challenges in significant declines due to import restrictions [1][2][18]. Soybean Market - Domestic soybean production in 2025 is characterized by significant regional differences, with North China experiencing reduced yields and quality, while Heilongjiang sees an increase of approximately 1.5 million tons [5]. - The market structure is facing issues due to a decrease in high-protein soybean ratios and an increase in genetically modified oil soybean ratios. Price fluctuations are noted, with domestic soybean prices rising from 3,850 RMB/ton to 4,200 RMB/ton [5][9]. - The soybean meal market is experiencing high inventory levels, and the pricing is shifting towards Brazilian pricing due to significant purchases of Brazilian soybeans by China [3][9]. Cotton Market - The cotton market showed strong performance post-October 2025, with expectations of reduced production in Xinjiang and low inventory levels driving prices up from around 13,000 RMB to over 14,000 RMB [6][7]. - The anticipated reduction in Xinjiang's cotton production for 2026 could significantly impact market dynamics, especially if the reduction exceeds 5% [6][7]. Sugar Market - Sugar prices in 2025 are expected to decline due to increased production in Brazil and the start of the new domestic sugar season, leading to ample supply [1][8]. - Domestic sugar production is projected to decrease from 4.4 million tons to between 3.6 and 3.8 million tons, necessitating imports to fill the gap, with import costs stabilizing around 5,100 RMB/ton [8]. Other Important Insights - The overall agricultural market in 2025 is characterized by a lack of significant volatility, influenced by external factors such as U.S. and Indonesian biodiesel policies and the ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions [12][14]. - The planting intentions for 2026 are expected to increase due to favorable planting income and the expansion of genetically modified crop areas, which could double from 5 million acres in 2025 [4][20]. - The market is closely monitoring the impact of weather conditions in Brazil on soybean production and the potential effects of U.S. biodiesel policies on oilseed prices [10][14]. Conclusion - The agricultural products market is facing a complex interplay of domestic production dynamics, policy influences, and international market conditions. Stakeholders should remain vigilant regarding policy changes and weather impacts that could affect supply and pricing in the coming years [12][14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - For the vegetable oil market, due to factors such as potential biodiesel policy benefits, changes in production and export volumes, and inventory changes, the market is cautious around the New Year's Day holiday. It is advisable to take profits on previous long positions in vegetable oils and resume trading after the holiday [1][2]. - For the double - meal market, considering factors like global soybean trade re - evaluation, high domestic bean meal inventory, and limited terminal price acceptance, it is recommended to conduct intraday trading before the holiday and make long - term plans after the holiday [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Vegetable Oils Market Review - On December 30, driven by the strengthening of the Malaysian palm oil market, the Dalian palm oil market rose, leading to an increase in the overall vegetable oil prices. The main and secondary contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all had price changes, with different trends in positions [1]. Important Information - The biodiesel policy may bring positive effects. The Trump administration may make a decision on the 45Z tax credit for sustainable aviation fuel next week. Starting from January 1, the tax credit for US biodiesel and renewable diesel producers will increase [1]. - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026, at 150,000 tons per month of South American soybean oil [1]. - From December 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 9.12% month - on - month, with a decline in fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield and oil extraction rate (OER). The export volume increased by 1.6% compared to the same period in November [1]. - Indonesia's 2026 biodiesel total allocation increased by about 30 million liters compared to 2025. The B50 road test started in December, and the mandatory addition plan is expected to start in the second half of 2026 [1]. - As of the end of the 52nd week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils decreased by 36,700 tons week - on - week, a 1.60% decline [1]. Market Logic - Overseas, after Christmas, US soybean oil opened high and closed low but still had an upward trend. The Malaysian palm oil market was pressured by high - inventory expectations and technical resistance levels. Domestically, due to the approaching New Year's Day holiday, the market was cautious. For soybean oil, there were both long and short factors; for palm oil, it was mainly pressured; for rapeseed oil, the inventory continued to decline, and traders were reluctant to sell, with a positive sentiment [2]. Trading Strategy - For single - sided trading, take profits on previous long positions in vegetable oils and resume trading after the holiday. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract. There are no arbitrage strategies for now [2]. Double - Meals Market Review - On December 30, the double - meal market opened low and closed high, with rapeseed meal performing stronger than soybean meal. The main and secondary contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal had different price and position changes [2]. Important Information - The US Department of Agriculture predicts that in the 2026/2027 season, US farmers will reduce corn planting and increase soybean planting to 85 million acres [2]. - As of the week of December 25, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 870,199 tons, with 135,417 tons to the Chinese mainland [2]. - StoneX predicts that the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean production may reach 178.9 million tons [2]. - As of December 27, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 97.9%, and the harvesting rate was 0.1%. Argentina's soybean sowing is three - quarters complete, and the crop condition is generally good [3]. - Brazil's December soybean export volume is expected to be 3.57 million tons [3]. - S&P Global Research Report states that in 2026, the US soybean market may face a decline in both production and exports, while Brazil's soybean harvest may prompt China to seek more Brazilian supplies [3]. - As of the end of the 52nd week of 2025, the domestic imported soybean inventory decreased by 875,000 tons week - on - week, the domestic bean meal inventory increased by 84,000 tons week - on - week, and the contract volume decreased [3]. - On December 24, there were rumors that the customs inspection procedures would be tightened until the second quarter of next year [3]. Market Logic - Overseas, the market re - evaluated global soybean trade, and with the end of the year approaching, previous funds withdrew, causing US soybeans to close down. Domestically, the high bean meal inventory restricted terminal procurement. Although there was some support on the supply side, the terminal's acceptance of price increases was limited, and the market trading was light [3]. Trading Strategy - Conduct intraday trading in the double - meal market before the holiday and make long - term plans after the holiday. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract. There are no arbitrage strategies for now [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic oil market is constrained by high supply pressure and weak demand, lacking positive factors. The core driver remains in the overseas origin markets. The weak reality suppresses the upward momentum of oils, and the market will maintain a wide - range volatile operation, waiting for the US energy policy, the destocking progress in Malaysia, and further news on Indonesia's B50 [1][2]. - In the short - term, due to the lack of trend drivers, it is advisable to treat it as a short - term range. As palm oil is about to enter the production - reduction season and the Ramadan in Southeast Asia is earlier next year, the pressure in the palm oil origin will gradually weaken, and its cost - effectiveness will increase. We can wait to see if it will start to rise after inventory destocking [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - There is a game between inventory pressure and demand growth in palm oil origin. Malaysia's inventory is at a six - and - a - half - year high. Although the production - reduction season at the end of the year is expected to improve the supply pressure, insufficient export boost may slow down the destocking pace. Indonesia's B50 plan is expected to be implemented in the second half of 2026, which is in line with market expectations, but it has limited short - term benefits [1]. - The US biodiesel policy is still unclear. The final determination of US biofuel obligations, originally scheduled to be announced in November by the EPA, has been postponed to the first quarter of 2026, and the allocation ratio is uncertain [1]. - The negotiation between China and Canada shows no positive trend. However, the global new - season rapeseed harvest and the arrival of Australian rapeseeds have eased the supply tension, weakening the support for rapeseed oil. If the relationship between China and Canada recovers, the supply pressure of rapeseed oil will increase [1]. - Although the inventory of the three major domestic oils has declined, the overall supply is still sufficient, lacking upward momentum. Rapeseed oil is in the process of destocking with relatively limited pressure, while soybean oil has the highest inventory and the greatest pressure [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations No relevant content provided. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Trend judgment: Short - term low - level volatile adjustment, with a possibility of rebound in the first quarter of next year. - Price range: P2605 fluctuates in the range of [8200 - 8800], Y2605 in the range of [7600 - 8100], and OI2605 in the range of [8600 - 9500]. - Technical analysis: Treat it with a short - term low - level consolidation mindset for single - side trading. For arbitrage, observe the weakening trend of the rapeseed - palm and rapeseed - soybean spreads. - Basis strategy: Currently, view the basis with a short - term weak - volatility mindset. - Monthly spread strategy: None for now. - Hedging arbitrage strategy: Expect the rapeseed - palm and rapeseed - soybean spreads to weaken [22]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - Palm oil futures and spot daily prices: Palm oil 01 is at 8646 yuan/ton with a 1.72% increase; Palm oil 05 is at 8658 yuan/ton with a 1.72% increase; Palm oil 09 is at 8534 yuan/ton with a 1.52% increase; BMD palm oil main contract is at 4072 ringgit/ton with a 0.62% increase; Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil is at 8590 yuan/ton with an increase of 100 [24]. - Soybean oil futures and spot daily prices: Soybean oil 01 is at 8150 yuan/ton with a 0.06% increase; Soybean oil 05 is at 7878 yuan/ton with a 0.14% increase; Soybean oil 09 is at 7756 yuan/ton with a 0.03% decrease; CBOT soybean oil main contract is at 49.26 cents/pound with a 0.12% increase; Shandong first - grade soybean oil spot is at 8220 yuan/ton with an increase of 20 [24]. - Rapeseed oil futures and spot daily prices: Rapeseed oil 01 is at 9653 yuan/ton with an increase of 178; Rapeseed oil 05 is at 9040 yuan/ton with a decrease of 6; Rapeseed oil 09 is at 8997 yuan/ton with a decrease of 17; ICE Canadian rapeseed near - month contract is at 603.9 Canadian dollars/ton with an increase of 1; East China rapeseed oil spot is at 10130 yuan/ton with an increase of 250 [24]. - Oil monthly and inter - variety spreads: P 1 - 5 is - 12 yuan/ton with an increase of 20; Y - P 01 is - 444 yuan/ton with an increase of 38; etc. [25]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: As of December 26, the commercial inventory of the three major domestic oils decreased slightly to 2130000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 20000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 80000 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 220000 tons. The national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 1089000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 34500 tons, a decrease of 3.07%. In October, Indonesia's palm oil export volume was 2.8 million tons, a year - on - year decline of about 3%. The production of crude palm oil was 4.35 million tons, and the inventory at the end of October was 2.33 million tons, lower than 2.59 million tons in the previous month [26][27]. - **Negative Information**: Favorable weather conditions in South America for soybean harvest, light trading before the New Year holiday, and the start of sporadic soybean harvesting in Brazil have weakened the upward space of the US soybean market. The ICE Canadian rapeseed futures market closed lower, mainly reflecting sufficient supply. The import of soybeans is still sufficient despite the oil mills' intention to hold prices [28]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: Recent oil transactions have remained stable, with an increase in soybean oil transactions and a slight decrease in rapeseed oil and palm oil transactions [30]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Domestic high - frequency weekly inventory data; Malaysian palm oil high - frequency production and high - frequency export data; Origin weather information [40]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The oil market continued to fluctuate widely this week. The pressure in the origin has not been cleared, lacking a trend - driven upward momentum. The US biodiesel policy is unclear, and the global oil market demand expansion is limited. The recent positions of key profitable seats in palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil have been cautious. Foreign capital has insufficient confidence in the oil sector [39]. - **Basis Structure**: This week, the main basis of oils continued to bottom - out and consolidate. Due to high domestic oil inventories and general downstream demand, the basis continued to operate weakly [42]. - **Monthly Spread Structure**: The oil market still shows a near - strong and far - weak Back structure. This week, the Back structure of soybean oil became shallower, and the weak reality continued to suppress the disk. The spot end of palm oil is still weak, but the expected decrease in supply pressure in the first quarter of next year has injected a premium into the 05 contract. There is still a supply gap in the near - month rapeseed oil, but it is expected to ease over time [42]. - **Spread Structure**: This week, the rapeseed - soybean and rapeseed - palm spreads rebounded slightly. As palm oil enters the production - reduction season and starts destocking, the support improves, and the rapeseed - palm spread is still expected to weaken [49]. 3.3.2 External Market This week, the external market fluctuated. The pressure in the palm oil origin remained unchanged, with insufficient weather disturbances and limited expectations for Indonesia's B50. The global soybean supply pattern is loose, and the US soybean lacks positive drivers, showing a weak oscillation. The US energy policy guidance is unclear, and the US soybean oil has declined, dragging down the international palm oil, which also remained weak [52]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain This week, the POGO spread rebounded slightly as the palm oil price stabilized, and the production cost of palm - oil - based biofuels increased slightly. The BOHO spread continued to weaken due to the good global soybean harvest expectation, and the cost of US soybean - oil - based biodiesel remained at a multi - year low [56]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking China is a net importer of palm oil. Recently, the origin price has been consolidating at a low level, and the import profit has changed slightly with a limited profit range. After the basis turned positive, domestic buyers started to place orders, but the profit weakened again near the end of the year [58]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Origin Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction In November, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased month - on - month, but the inventory exceeded expectations, and the supply pressure was not relieved. The latest high - frequency data shows that Malaysia's production decreased in December, but the export boost was insufficient. It is expected that an inventory inflection point may be seen in January [62]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - **Palm Oil**: In the current procurement situation, transactions are difficult to improve in the off - season. As it enters the production - reduction season in the origin, the willingness to sell is limited. Considering the easy solidification of palm oil in winter and the negative basis, domestic orders are not expected to increase. We can wait for a rebound after the inventory pressure in the origin eases [64]. - **Soybean Oil**: In December, the arrival of raw materials decreased, and the crushing volume declined. Although the current inventory pressure is large and the overall supply is relatively loose, the seasonal shortage of soybean arrivals in the first quarter needs attention [64]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The downstream demand is limited. Although Australian rapeseeds are arriving, the quantity is limited, and the inventory is mainly in the process of destocking. With the global rapeseed harvest, the cost price is weak. More Australian rapeseeds will arrive next year, and if the China - Canada relationship improves, the domestic rapeseed oil supply will further increase [64]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction In the short - term, the inventory of the three major oils is still high year - on - year, and the downstream demand is sluggish and lags behind the average level. After the festival stocking ends, the boost to the market is limited, and the overall terminal demand for oils remains weak [67].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Malay high-frequency data has improved, but there is still significant pressure in December. The market is expected to rebound in the short term and then continue to decline, awaiting the release of MPOB's December data. For rapeseed oil, influenced by traders taking delivery and obstacles in Australian imports, the price has risen. Short-term observation is recommended, and it is not advisable to chase the upward trend. For soybean oil, wait for the USDA's January report and pay attention to the adjustment of the new US soybean yield per unit area [2] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Spot Price - 24-degree palm oil: On December 29, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8650, 8590, and 8490 respectively, with a decrease of 20 compared to December 26, 2025. The palm oil main contract spot basis in South China for Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu was 5000, 4000, and 3000 (or 2000) respectively [1] - First-grade soybean oil: On December 29, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8250, 8390, and 8400 respectively, with no change compared to December 26, 2025 [1] - Fourth-grade rapeseed oil: On December 29, 2025, the prices in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu were 9880, 9930, and 10130 respectively, with an increase of 100 compared to December 26, 2025. The soybean oil main contract spot basis in North China for Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu was 2000, 1500, and 1000 respectively [1] Futures Data - The price difference between the soybean and palm oil main contracts was -694 on December 29, 2025, an increase of 38 compared to December 26, 2025. The price difference between the rapeseed and soybean oil main contracts was 1222 on December 29, 2025, an increase of 12 compared to December 26, 2025 [1] - The palm oil warehouse receipts were 260 on December 29, 2025, with no change compared to December 26, 2025. The soybean oil warehouse receipts were 28264 on December 29, 2025, with no change compared to December 26, 2025. The rapeseed oil warehouse receipts were 3456 on December 29, 2025, with no change compared to December 26, 2025 [1] Industry News - On December 19, the Indonesian energy minister said that the country had launched a road test for B50 biodiesel two weeks ago, which is expected to last about six months. The mandatory use policy for B50 biodiesel is likely to be officially implemented in the second half of 2026 [2] - MPOC predicts that the crude palm oil price will fluctuate between 3800 and 4100 ringgit per ton in January next year, supported by seasonal low production and increased demand before the Lunar New Year and Ramadan [2] - According to MPOA, Malaysia's palm oil production from December 1 - 20 decreased by 7.44% compared to the same period last month. According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 25 increased by 1.6% compared to the same period last month; exports from December 1 - 20 increased by 2.4% compared to the same period last month; exports from December 1 - 15 decreased by 15.9% compared to the same period last month. According to AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 15 decreased by 16.4% compared to the same period last month [2] - ANEC predicts that Brazil's soybean exports in December will be 3.57 million tons, up from the previous week's forecast of 3.33 million tons. The US Department of Agriculture announced that a private exporter reported the sale of 134,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/2026 fiscal year [2] - According to the Indian Solvent Extractors' Association, India's palm oil imports in November increased by about 5% compared to October, reaching 632,341 tons. Soybean oil imports decreased by more than 18% compared to the previous month, reaching 370,661 tons. Sunflower oil imports decreased by 45% compared to the previous month, reaching 142,953 tons, the lowest in two years. India also imported 5,000 tons of rapeseed oil from the UAE. The decrease in soybean and sunflower oil imports led to a 13.3% decrease in India's total edible oil imports in November compared to the previous month, reaching a seven - month low of 1.15 million tons. In November, India imported a record - high 69,919 tons of soybean oil from China due to discounts offered by Chinese crushers due to oversupply [2]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 30 日星期周二 | | | 研究员： 刘锦 从业资格：F0276812 交易咨询资格：Z0011862 联系方式：13633849418 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 12 月 29 日，元旦假期在即，市场交投谨慎，植物油板块承压，棕榈油技术位面临 较大压力，豆油和菜籽油呈现弱势振荡。 | | | | | 豆油主力合约 Y2605 合约报收于 7818 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 0.23%，日增仓 | | | | | 3768 手； | | | | | 豆油次主力合约 Y2609 合约报收于 7716 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 0.31%，日增 | | | | | 仓 646 手; | | | | | 棕榈油主力合约 P2605 合约收盘价 8512 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 0.65%，日减 | | | | | 仓 26557 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore, coal and coke, rolled steel, rebar, glass, soda ash, Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, CSI 300, 2 - year Treasury bonds, 5 - year Treasury bonds, logs, pulp, rubber: Volatility [2][4][6][8][12] - CSI 500, CSI 1000, double - offset paper, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No.2, soybean No.1: Rebound [4][8] - Gold, silver: Volatility with an upward bias [6] - 10 - year Treasury bonds: Consolidation [4] - Soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil: Volatility with a downward bias [8] - Live pigs, natural rubber: Volatility [9][12] - PX, PTA: Wide - range volatility [12] - MEG: Low - level volatility [12] - PR: Wait - and - see [12] - PF: Wait - and - see, with possible market consolidation this week [12] 2. Core Views of the Report - The black industry is affected by factors such as new global mine supplies, steel export policies, and downstream demand, with prices mainly in a volatile state [2] - The financial market is affected by national policies, economic data, and market sentiment, showing short - term volatility and medium - term trends [4] - Precious metals are influenced by factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and interest rate policies, with prices showing an upward - biased volatility trend [6] - The light industry products are in a state of supply - demand imbalance, with prices mainly fluctuating [6][8] - The prices of oils and fats and oilseeds are affected by factors such as production, exports, and biodiesel policies, showing a downward - biased volatility trend, while the meal prices may rebound in the short term [8] - The price of live pigs is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and seasonal consumption, and is expected to remain volatile [9] - The price of soft commodities is affected by factors such as weather, production, and demand, and is expected to fluctuate [12] - The prices of polyester products are affected by factors such as oil prices, supply, and demand, showing different trends such as wide - range volatility, low - level volatility, and wait - and - see [12] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: In 2026, global mines will add 64 - 65 million tons, with a growth rate far exceeding that of crude steel. Current demand is weak, and the implementation of steel export license management is a negative factor. Short - term rebounds can be used to enter short positions [2] - Coal and coke: The fourth round of coke price cuts is expected to occur at the end of the month and take effect in early January. There are still supportive factors, but the implementation of steel export license management has a negative impact on demand [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: The implementation of export license management, the emphasis on controlling high - energy - consuming projects, and the call to expand domestic demand have short - term positive effects. The key lies in the production level in January [2] - Glass: The domestic float glass spot market is declining, with supply contraction falling short of expectations and inventory accumulation due to weak demand [2] Financial - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day saw gains in major stock indices. The convening time of the 2026 National Two Sessions has been determined, and the National Finance Work Conference has put forward key tasks for 2026 [4] - Treasury bonds: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, with the yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds remaining flat. The market trend is showing a slight rebound [4] Precious Metals - Gold: Its pricing mechanism is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. Multiple attributes support its price, but there are short - term risks [6] - Silver: It shows a similar trend to gold, with short - term upward expectations and long - term support [6] Light Industry - Logs: Port shipments and imports show different trends. Supply pressure is weakening, and prices are expected to fluctuate [6][8] - Pulp: The cost support for pulp prices has increased, but demand is weak, and prices are expected to remain volatile [8] - Double - offset paper: Supply is stable, and demand from publication orders provides support, but there is a need for the basis to return [8] Oils and Fats and Oilseeds - Oils: The export of Malaysian palm oil has decreased, and inventory pressure is high. The demand for biodiesel is uncertain, and the overall trend is downward - biased [8] - Meal: Global soybean inventory is relatively abundant, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to be sufficient. It may rebound in the short term [8] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The average trading weight may decline. Demand has driven up the settlement price and slaughtering rate, and the price is expected to remain volatile [9] Soft Commodities - Rubber: Production is affected by weather, demand is gradually recovering, and inventory is accumulating. Prices are expected to fluctuate [12] Polyester - PX: Supply is high, and prices are in wide - range volatility [12] - PTA: Cost may be affected by oil prices, and short - term supply - demand has improved, but the long - term trend is weak [12] - MEG: There is long - term inventory accumulation pressure, and short - term prices are in low - level volatility [12] - PR: Cost support has collapsed, and prices are expected to decline [12] - PF: Inventory is low, but the market expectation is bearish, and it may consolidate this week [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - For the vegetable oil sector, it is recommended to short - term go long and wait for long - term short - selling opportunities after the rebound. For the two - meal (bean meal and rapeseed meal) sector, it is expected to rebound from a low level, and new selling points should be sought after the rebound ends [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Vegetable Oil Sector 3.1 Market Review - On December 26, the vegetable oil sector showed an overall strong trend. The large - scale exit of short positions in soybean oil boosted its price. Palm oil was still under pressure at the 20 - day moving average, and the rebound of rapeseed oil weakened. For example, the main soybean oil contract Y2605 closed at 7,836 yuan/ton, up 0.15% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 10,112 lots [1] 3.2 Important Information - The biodiesel policy may be favorable. The Trump administration may make a decision on the 45Z tax credit for sustainable aviation fuel next week. From January 1, 2026, the tax credit for US biodiesel producers will increase to 64 cents per gallon, and that for renewable diesel producers will increase to 53 cents per gallon [1] - Indian buyers have locked in a large - scale purchase of 150,000 tons per month of South American soybean oil from April to July 2026 [1] - From December 1 - 20, the palm oil production in Malaysia decreased by 7.15% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield decreasing by 6.26% month - on - month and the oil extraction rate (OER) decreasing by 0.17% month - on - month [1] - From December 1 - 25, the palm oil export volume in Malaysia was 1,058,112 tons, a 1.6% increase compared to the same period in November. Exports to China were 108,000 tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons compared to the same period last month [1] - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources released the total biodiesel allocation for 2026 as 15.65 billion liters, an increase of about 30 million liters compared to 2025. The PSO total allocation decreased, and the B50 road test was launched in December 2025, with the mandatory addition plan expected to start in the second half of 2026 [1] - As of the end of the 51st week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.2936 million tons, a weekly decrease of 17,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.77%, and a year - on - year increase of 8.30% [1] 3.3 Market Logic - Overseas: After Christmas, US soybean oil opened higher and closed lower, but the overall center of gravity moved up and was still in a rebound. Domestic: For soybean oil, the factory inventory decreased by 25,000 tons, indicating a short - term supply shortage, but the oil mill's crushing volume and operating rate remained high. For palm oil, the Malaysian market opened and closed higher. The strong overseas vegetable oil market is expected to boost the domestic market. For rapeseed oil, due to market news that many traders plan to take delivery of the 2601 rapeseed oil warehouse receipts and actively inquire about crude rapeseed oil, and the continuous reduction of rapeseed oil inventory in East China, the 2601 Zhengzhou rapeseed oil contract led the domestic vegetable oil market, and the 2605 contract also followed the upward trend [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: New positions in vegetable oils should be short - term long, and a long - term short - selling mindset should be maintained. Do not engage in long - term trading during the New Year's Day holiday. Provide support and resistance levels for different contracts, such as the Y2605 contract with a resistance level of 8,400 and a support level of 7,400 [2] - Arbitrage: None Two - Meal (Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) Sector 3.1 Market Review - On December 26, the customs rumors led to an increase in spot market transactions, boosting the futures market. The main bean meal contract M2605 closed at 2,790 yuan/ton, up 1.09% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 6,453 lots [2] 3.2 Important Information - The US Department of Agriculture estimates that in the 2026/2027 season, US farmers will reduce corn planting area and increase soybean planting area to 85 million acres [2] - StoneX reported that China has purchased more than 8 million tons of US soybeans, moving towards the goal of 12 million tons [2] - As of December 11, the sowing of soybeans in Brazil in the 2025/26 season was 97% complete, higher than 94% a week ago [2] - StoneX predicts that the soybean output in Brazil in the 2025/26 season may reach 178.9 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 175 million tons by the US Department of Agriculture [3] - As of December 13, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 94.1%, compared with 90.3% last week, 96.8% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 90.6% [3] - The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) expects the soybean export volume in December to be 3.57 million tons, up from the previous estimate of 3.33 million tons [3] - S&P Global Research Report states that in 2026, the US soybean market will face a decline in both output and exports, while Brazil's soybean harvest may prompt China to seek more Brazilian supplies [3] - As of the end of the 51st week of 2025, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 7.646 million tons, a decrease of 409,000 tons compared to last week. The domestic bean meal inventory was 1.095 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.38% [3] - On December 24, there were rumors that the customs inspection procedures would be tightened until the second quarter of next year [3] 3.3 Market Logic - Overseas: The price of US soybeans rebounded after Christmas. In the spot market, the fixed - price of oil mills increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and some enterprises continued to raise prices after the market closed. Traders replenish goods as needed, waiting for the shutdown arrangement of oil mills in January. The terminal has pre - holiday stocking demand but is not willing to chase high prices. The market is concerned about whether it can break through the half - year line pressure level under the drive of the rise in bean meal. In the spot market, terminal purchases are mainly for rigid demand, with general trading volume, and prices fluctuate with the futures market, and the basis quotation shows a narrow - range adjustment [3] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Bean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to rebound from a low level. New selling points should be sought after the rebound ends. Provide support and resistance levels for different contracts, such as the M2605 contract with a resistance level of 2,858 and a support level of 2,660 [3] - Arbitrage: None

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the fundamentals of the oilseed industry, including supply and demand factors for soybeans, rapeseed, and related products. It also examines the market conditions of various oils such as soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil, considering factors like production, consumption, inventory, and policy impacts [6][38][40]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Domestic procurement of US soybeans is slow, with low January arrivals due to slow customs clearance. The December USDA report met market expectations, and the market is focused on South American soybean planting and weather. There are concerns about potential supply pressure from South American soybean production in March - May next year. State reserve soybean auctions, although with low trading volumes, have put short - term supply pressure. Weak demand due to farming losses and seasonal factors, along with low prices leading to crushing losses for oil mills, which have price - support expectations [6]. - Import reduction has led to near - zero domestic rapeseed inventory, and imports of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil are restricted by import tariffs. Uncertainty from Sino - Canadian negotiations has raised concerns about supply shortages, but increased arrivals from Australia are expected to keep December and January rapeseed imports at historical average levels. With the seasonal decline in aquaculture demand, prices have rebounded, and there are concerns about supply contraction due to potential import shortages [6]. Oils Soybean Oil - Raw material pressure persists. Oil mills have reduced crushing volumes due to weakening profit margins, slightly easing domestic supply. The demand side faces a traditional peak season with support from New Year and Spring Festival demand. Overseas biodiesel policies are changeable, and attention should be paid to US and Indonesian policies [38][39]. Palm Oil - Malaysia's December supply - demand data exceeded expectations, with higher - than - expected inventory accumulation. China's November imports reached a high, and domestic inventory remains at a high level. Overseas biodiesel policies are changeable. Supply countries may face seasonal production cuts around the Spring Festival, leading to expectations of inventory reduction in January - February [40]. Rapeseed Oil - High tariffs on imported rapeseed persist, and the volume of Canadian rapeseed imports is uncertain. The lack of results from Sino - Canadian negotiations has led to continued concerns about import shortages. Reduced imports have led to continuous inventory reduction of rapeseed oil in China. Rapeseed oil has shown relatively stronger performance compared to other oils due to lower inventory levels [41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The vegetable oil sector is expected to rebound from the bottom and mainly oscillate at a low level. Traders should wait for long - term short - selling opportunities after the rebound. For the meal sector, it will rebound from a low level, and traders should wait for new selling points after the rebound ends [1][2][3] 3. Summary of Relevant Content by Category Vegetable Oil Sector 3.1.1 Market Review - On December 25, the vegetable oil sector was generally strong. The departure of a large number of short positions in soybean oil boosted its price. Palm oil was still under pressure at the 20 - day moving average, and the rebound momentum of rapeseed oil weakened. For example, the main soybean oil contract Y2605 closed at 7824 yuan/ton, up 0.77% day - on - day in terms of closing price, with a daily reduction of 15,708 lots [1] 3.1.2 Important Information - On December 24, international oil prices closed slightly lower, and are expected to record the largest annual decline since 2020. The 2 - month crude oil futures contract on NYMEX fell 0.03 dollars or 0.05% [1] - The market speculates that the Trump administration will make a decision on the 45Z tax credit for sustainable aviation fuels next week. Tax credit increases may boost the processing enthusiasm of biodiesel producers [1] - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026, with 150,000 tons per month from South America [1] - From December 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 7.15% month - on - month. Its exports from December 1 - 25 increased by 1.6% compared to the same period in November [1] - Indonesia's 2026 biodiesel total allocation is 15.65 billion liters, an increase of about 30 million liters compared to 2025. The B50 mandatory addition plan is expected to start in the second half of 2026 [1] - As of the end of the 51st week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China decreased by 1.77 million tons week - on - week, a 0.77% decrease [2] 3.1.3 Market Logic - In the domestic market, soybean oil production is less than demand recently, but the oil mill's crushing volume and operating rate remain high. For palm oil, the strong trend of US soybean oil before the holiday may boost the domestic market. In the rapeseed oil market, the intention of some traders to take delivery of the 2601 rapeseed oil warehouse receipts and the continuous decline of rapeseed oil inventory in East China have led to a rise in prices [2] 3.1.4 Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, new vegetable oil orders should be traded intraday, and long - term short - selling thinking should be maintained. For example, the pressure level of the Y2605 contract is 8400, and the support level is 7400 [2] Meal Sector 3.2.1 Market Review - On December 25, the meal sector was strong. The main soybean meal contract M2605 closed at 2760 yuan/ton, up 1.17% day - on - day in terms of closing price, with a daily reduction of 69,401 lots [2] 3.2.2 Important Information - The US Department of Agriculture estimates that in the 2026/2027 season, US farmers will increase soybean planting area to 85 million acres [2] - China has purchased more than 8 million tons of US soybeans, moving towards the goal of 12 million tons [2] - As of December 11, the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean planting was 97% complete. StoneX predicts that the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean output may reach 178.9 million tons [2][3] - As of the end of the 51st week of 2025, China's imported soybean inventory decreased by 409,000 tons week - on - week, and the domestic soybean meal inventory increased by 15,000 tons week - on - week [3] - On December 24, there was a market rumor that the customs inspection procedure would be tightened until the second quarter of next year [3] 3.2.3 Market Logic - Before Christmas, funds were re - allocated, and US soybeans rebounded. In the spot market, oil mills raised their prices, but traders were cautious. The market is waiting for news of oil mill shutdown in January. The terminal has pre - holiday stocking demand but is not willing to chase high prices [3] 3.2.4 Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, soybean meal and rapeseed meal are in a low - level rebound. Traders should wait for new selling points after the rebound ends. For example, the pressure level of the M2605 contract is 2858, and the support level is 2660 [3][4]