但印尼B40政策在实际执行中并不顺利。由于棕榈油与柴油价格长期倒挂，该政策的推进需依赖政府财 政补贴。因财政补贴存在缺口，今年1月7日印尼签署实施B40的法令，规定用于公共部门的755万千升 生物柴油可获得政府补贴，非公共部门的约805万千升生物柴油则未纳入补贴机制。不过，自5月17日 起，印尼将毛棕榈油出口专项税从此前设定的"毛棕榈油参考价的 7.5%"上调至10%。 6月初以来，在生物柴油政策利好预期推动下，油脂市场逐渐脱离此前的区间震荡走势，开启一轮上涨 行情，其中豆油和棕榈油涨势尤为明显。 6月13日，美国环保署（EPA）发布《可再生燃料标准》（RFS）最终提案，2026年和2027年的生物燃 料掺混总量分别为240.2亿加仑和244.6亿加仑，高于2025年223.3亿加仑的掺混要求。其中，2026年的生 物柴油掺混目标为56.1亿加仑，远高于2025年33.5亿加仑的目标，也高于此前生物燃料行业提出的52.5 亿加仑的目标。此外，该提案还含有限制生物燃料进口的措施。由于美国生物柴油的主要原材料是豆 油，若该提案正式实施，将使豆油市场供需格局发生重大变化。 美国农业部数据显示，2025年豆油占生物质 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fundamentally, the draft of the US biodiesel policy exceeded expectations, the palm oil production potential in Southeast Asia was insufficient, the vegetable oil inventories in India and Southeast Asian producing areas were low, and the expectation of Indonesia's B50 policy supported the central level of oils and fats. Regarding palm oil, if demand - side countries maintained normal imports and palm oil production in producing areas remained at a neutral level from July to September, the inventory in producing areas might remain stable, supporting the producer prices to fluctuate strongly. There might be an upward expectation in the fourth quarter due to Indonesia's B50 policy. However, the current valuation was relatively high, and the upward space was restricted by factors such as the annual - level oil and fat production increase expectation, relatively high near - term palm oil production in producing areas, the undetermined RVO rules, macro factors, and demand adjustments by major importing countries. Therefore, it should be viewed as fluctuating [11][12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Evaluation and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Overview** - Palm oil maintained a volatile trend this week. The net long positions of foreign capital, which accounted for the main positions of the three major oils and fats, reached a record high. Palm oil reduced long positions this week, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil slightly increased long positions. The estimated export of Malaysian palm oil from July 1st to 31st decreased by 6.71% - 9.58% month - on - month. The SPPOMA data showed that the production of Malaysian palm oil from July 1st to 25th, 2025, increased by 5.52% month - on - month. The lower - than - expected export of Malaysian palm oil implied a recovery in Indonesia's production or weak demand in consumer areas. The narrative of palm oil production increase and weak demand still suppressed the market. Although there were medium - term positive factors such as the expectation of Indonesia's B50 policy and the limited production increase potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, the short - term data deviation also brought correction pressure to the market. The price of foreign - market rapeseed entered a volatile phase after falling from a high level. China and Australia were in contact regarding rapeseed purchases, which suppressed the high valuation of rapeseed oil. The price difference between soybean oil and palm oil widened, mainly because some domestic soybean oil was exported, alleviating the domestic supply pressure of soybean oil [11]. - In the international oils and fats market, the USDA July monthly report estimated that the industrial demand for soybean oil in the US would increase by about 1.5 million tons in the 2025/2026 fiscal year, which would be supplemented by a decrease in soybean oil exports and an increase in crushing output. The estimated import of rapeseed oil only increased by 200,000 tons year - on - year. The shipping volume of Canadian rapeseed farmers decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month, but the export volume remained relatively high. The commercial inventory was recently stable at a neutral - to - high level in previous years. In addition, the contact between China and Australia regarding rapeseed trade depressed the rapeseed price, and the price of foreign - market rapeseed fluctuated weakly this week. The AAFC significantly increased the production of old - crop rapeseed based on large - scale export data, but the new - crop rapeseed faced a production reduction situation, which supported the rapeseed price. India might have started a replenishment process, which would support the subsequent export demand for palm oil [11]. - In the domestic oils and fats market, the trading volume of soybean oil was good this week, while that of palm oil was weak. The spot basis was at a relatively low level. The total domestic inventory of oils and fats was about 400,000 tons higher than last year, indicating a relatively sufficient supply. Among them, the rapeseed oil inventory was 300,000 tons higher than last year, the palm oil inventory was about 100,000 tons higher than last year, and the soybean oil inventory was the same as last year. In the next two months, the soybean crushing volume would increase with the arrival of soybeans. After the increase in palm oil production, the willingness to export would also increase. Rapeseed oil would maintain a slow de - stocking trend, but the high price difference and weak consumption of rapeseed oil led to a slow de - stocking process. The total domestic inventory of oils and fats would temporarily remain at a relatively high level [11]. - **Trading Strategy Suggestion** - For the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to view the market as fluctuating. The core driving logic is the same as the core viewpoints mentioned above [13]. - No specific content was provided for the arbitrage strategy [13]. 3.2 Futures - Spot Market The report presents multiple charts related to the basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures contracts, including the basis of Malaysian palm oil FOB - futures, the seasonal basis of Malaysian palm oil futures, and the basis of domestic palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil 09 contracts. These charts help to analyze the relationship between futures and spot prices [18][21][23]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Production and Export of Palm Oil** - The report shows the monthly production and export volume charts of Malaysian palm oil and the monthly production and export volume charts of Indonesian palm oil + palm kernel oil from 2021 to 2025, which can be used to analyze the supply situation of palm oil in these two major producing areas [28][29]. - It also presents the weekly arrival volume and port inventory charts of soybeans, as well as the monthly import volume charts of rapeseed and rapeseed oil, which are helpful for understanding the supply situation of raw materials for soybean oil and rapeseed oil production [30][31]. - **Weather in Palm - Producing Areas** - The report includes charts of weighted precipitation in Indonesian and Malaysian palm - producing areas, as well as the NINO 3.4 index and the impact of La Nina on global climate, which can be used to analyze the potential impact of weather on palm oil production [33][35]. 3.4 Profit and Inventory - **Inventory of Domestic Oils and Fats** - The report shows the total inventory chart of domestic three major oils and fats and the inventory chart of Indian imported vegetable oils, which can be used to analyze the inventory situation in the domestic and Indian markets [41]. - **Profit and Inventory of Different Oils** - For palm oil, it presents the near - month import profit chart and the commercial inventory chart [44]. - For soybean oil, it shows the spot crushing profit chart of imported soybeans in Guangdong and the inventory chart of major soybean oil mills [46]. - For rapeseed oil, it shows the average spot crushing profit chart of rapeseed along the coast and the commercial inventory chart of rapeseed oil in East China [47]. - **Inventory of Palm Oil in Producing Areas** - The report shows the inventory charts of Malaysian palm oil and Indonesian palm oil + palm kernel oil, which can be used to analyze the inventory situation in palm - oil - producing areas [49]. 3.5 Cost Side - **Cost of Palm Oil** - The report shows the reference price chart of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price chart of Malaysian palm oil, which can be used to analyze the cost situation of palm oil [51][53]. - **Cost of Rapeseed Oil and Rapeseed** - It presents the CNF import price chart of rapeseed oil (nearest - month shipping date) and the import cost price chart of Chinese imported rapeseed, which can be used to analyze the cost situation of rapeseed oil and rapeseed [55]. 3.6 Demand Side - **Oils and Fats Trading Volume** - The report shows the cumulative trading volume charts of palm oil and soybean oil in different crop years, which can be used to analyze the trading volume situation of these two oils and fats [58]. - **Profit of Biodiesel** - It presents the POGO spread chart (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and the BOHO spread chart (soybean oil - heating oil), which can be used to analyze the profit situation of biodiesel production using palm oil and soybean oil [60].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil may see an upward trend due to concerns about limited inventory growth and potential export increase in August. For soybean oil, the impact of US biodiesel policy has ended, and domestic demand may pick up in August. It is recommended to go long on dips for palm oil and pay attention to the domestic demand recovery for soybean oil [1]. - **Meal and Bean Products**: The US soybean market is under pressure due to the expectation of a bumper harvest and trade uncertainties. Domestic soybean and bean meal inventories are rising, and the basis is oscillating at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see for bean meal [2]. - **Pork**: The spot pork market is weak, with low enthusiasm for secondary fattening, increased slaughter volume, and weak demand. It is expected that the spot price will remain at the bottom, and the near - month contract is under pressure. For the far - month contract, it is not recommended to short blindly, but the impact of hedging funds should be noted [4]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The corn market is relatively stable in the short term, with limited price increase and decrease. The supply is tight in the third quarter and may be loose in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to policy auctions and the growth of new crops [6]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market has no new drivers, and the overall is bearish. The domestic sugar market has low demand, and the price is under pressure due to the increase in imports. It is expected to maintain a narrow - range high - level oscillation [8]. - **Eggs**: The supply of eggs is sufficient, but the supply of large - sized eggs is tight. The demand may first decrease and then increase this week. The egg price may decline slightly next week but still has an upward space in the spot market, while the futures upside is limited [11]. - **Cotton**: The supply pressure of cotton is increasing marginally, and the demand weakness is weakening marginally. The domestic cotton price may oscillate in the short term and face pressure after the new cotton is on the market [14]. 3. Summary by Commodity Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: On July 28, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8350 yuan/ton, up 0.24%. The futures price of Y2509 was 8226 yuan/ton, up 1.31%. The basis was 144 yuan/ton, down 37.39%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.78% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: On July 29, the spot price in Guangdong was 8920 yuan/ton, down 0.56%. The futures price of P2509 was 8970 yuan/ton, up 0.27%. The basis was - 50 yuan/ton, down 308.33%. The import cost increased by 0.14%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: On July 28, the spot price in Jiangsu was 9540 yuan/ton, up 0.52%. The futures price of Ol509 was 9492 yuan/ton, up 0.91%. The basis decreased by 26.87%. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [1]. Meal and Bean Products - **Bean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2850 yuan/ton, unchanged. The futures price of M2509 was 2990 yuan/ton, down 0.23%. The basis was - 133 yuan/ton, up 5%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 8.9% [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2530 yuan/ton, down 1.17%. The futures price of RM2509 was 2660 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis decreased by 30%. The import profit decreased by 57.84%, and the number of warehouse receipts was 0 [2]. - **Soybean**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans was 3960 yuan/ton, unchanged. The futures price of the main contract decreased by 1.68%. The basis increased by 26.89%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.14% [2]. Pork - **Futures**: The price of the 2511 contract was 14125 yuan/ton, down 0.88%. The price of the 2509 contract was 14150 yuan/ton, up 0.18%. The 9 - 11 spread was 25 yuan/ton, up 120%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased [4]. - **Spot**: The prices in Henan, Shandong, Sichuan, and other regions decreased, with the largest decline of 200 yuan/ton in Henan and Shandong [4]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of the 2509 contract was 2302 yuan/ton, down 0.73%. The basis was 48 yuan/ton, up 54.84%. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 6.45%. The import profit decreased by 0.88% [6]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of the 2509 contract was 2666 yuan/ton, down 0.63%. The basis was 14 yuan/ton, up 566.67%. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 7.89%. The starch - corn spread remained unchanged [6]. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of the 2601 contract was 5731 yuan/ton, up 0.51%. The price of the 2509 contract was 5867 yuan/ton, up 0.38%. The ICE raw sugar price was 16.56 cents/pound, up 0.79%. The 1 - 9 spread increased by 4.9% [8]. - **Spot**: The price in Nanning was 6050 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price in Kunming was 5915 yuan/ton, up 0.6%. The basis in Nanning decreased by 10.73%, and the basis in Kunming increased by 37.14% [8]. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of the 09 contract was 3576 yuan/500KG, unchanged. The price of the 08 contract was 3349 yuan/500KG, down 0.33%. The 9 - 8 spread increased by 5.09% [10]. - **Spot**: The egg price in the producing area was 3.20 yuan/jin, down 0.48%. The basis was - 375 yuan/500KG, down 3.55% [10]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of the 2509 contract was 13925 yuan/ton, down 1.07%. The price of the 2601 contract was 14025 yuan/ton, down 0.28%. The ICE US cotton price was 67.66 cents/pound, down 0.94%. The 9 - 1 spread was - 110 yuan/ton, unchanged [14]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 15431 yuan/ton, down 0.27%. The CC Index of 3128B was 15580 yuan/ton, down 0.19% [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term bearish rating on high - frequency exports of the oil and fat industry, indicating "short - term bearish" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fundamentally, factors such as the unexpected U.S. biodiesel policy draft, limited potential for palm oil production increase in Southeast Asia, low inventories of vegetable oils in India for rigid demand, and the expected B50 policy in Indonesia support the price center of oils and fats. From July to September, if demand countries maintain normal imports and palm oil production in producing areas remains at a neutral level, the inventory in producing areas may remain stable, supporting a strong and volatile price quotation. There may be an upward price expectation in the fourth quarter due to the Indonesian B50 policy. However, the current valuation is relatively high, and the upward space is restricted by factors such as the annual - level expectation of increased oil and fat production, relatively high palm oil production in producing areas, the undetermined RVO rules, macro - factors, and demand adjustments in major importing countries. The market is expected to be volatile [11][12][13] 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: Palm oil rose slightly at the beginning of the week following the optimistic sentiment in commodities, but it was difficult to continue the upward trend due to the record - high net long positions of foreign capital in the three major oils and fats and the bearish high - frequency export and production data. It fell at the end of the week following the overall decline in commodities. Malaysian palm oil exports in the first 25 days were expected to decline by 9.2% - 15.22% month - on - month, and the production in the first 20 days of July increased by 6.19% month - on - month. The lower - than - expected exports may imply increased production in Indonesia or weak demand in consuming areas. The narrative of increased palm oil production and weak demand still suppresses the market. Although there are medium - term positive factors such as the expected B50 policy in Indonesia and limited potential for palm oil production increase in Southeast Asia, short - term data deviations bring correction pressure to the market. The price of foreign - traded rapeseed entered a volatile phase after falling from a high level, and the contact between China and Australia on rapeseed purchases suppressed the high valuation of rapeseed oil [11] - **International Oils and Fats**: The USDA July monthly report estimated that the U.S. will increase about 1.5 million tons of industrial demand for soybean oil in the 2025/2026 season, which will be supplemented by a decline in soybean oil exports and increased压榨 output. The estimated import of rapeseed oil is only expected to increase by 200,000 tons year - on - year. The shipment volume of Canadian rapeseed is still high, and exports are at a seasonally high level, with signs of inventory accumulation in commercial inventories. The contact between China and Australia on rapeseed trade also suppresses the rapeseed price. The foreign - traded rapeseed price has been mainly volatile this week. The AAFC significantly increased the production of old - crop rapeseed based on large export data, but the new - crop rapeseed is facing a production decline, which supports the rapeseed price. India purchased a large amount of vegetable oils in June, possibly starting a replenishment process, which will support the subsequent export demand for palm oil [11] - **Domestic Oils and Fats**: The trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was weak this week, and the spot basis was at a low level. The total domestic inventory of oils and fats is about 400,000 tons higher than last year, indicating sufficient supply. Among them, the rapeseed oil inventory is 300,000 tons higher than last year, the palm oil inventory is about 100,000 tons higher than last year, and the soybean oil inventory is the same as last year. In the next two months, the soybean crushing volume will increase with the arrival of soybeans, and the export willingness of palm oil will also increase after production rises. The rapeseed oil inventory is at a high level, but the high price difference and weak consumption lead to slow inventory reduction. It is difficult to see a downward trend in the total domestic inventory of oils and fats for now [11] - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: For unilateral trading, the market is expected to be volatile. The core driving logic is the same as the core viewpoints mentioned above. There is no specific recommendation for arbitrage trading [13] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - The report presents multiple charts related to the basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, including the FOB - futures price difference of Malaysian palm oil, the seasonal basis of Malaysian palm oil futures, and the basis of 09 contracts of domestic palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, which are used to analyze the relationship between futures and spot prices [18][21][23][25] 3.3 Supply Side - **Production and Export of Malaysian Palm Oil**: The report shows charts of the monthly production and export of Malaysian palm oil, as well as the monthly production and export of palm oil and palm kernel oil in Indonesia. It also includes charts of the weekly arrival of soybeans, soybean port inventory, monthly import of rapeseed, and monthly import of rapeseed oil, which are used to analyze the supply situation of different oils and fats [28][29][30][31] - **Weather in Palm - Producing Areas**: The report presents charts of weighted precipitation in Indonesian and Malaysian palm - producing areas, as well as the NINO 3.4 index and the impact of La Nina on global climate, which are used to analyze the impact of weather on palm oil production [33][35] 3.4 Profit and Inventory - **Inventory Situation**: The report shows charts of the total inventory of domestic three major oils and fats, the inventory of imported vegetable oils in India, the import profit and commercial inventory of palm oil, the spot crushing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong and the inventory of major soybean oil mills, the average spot crushing profit of rapeseed along the coast and the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil in East China, and the inventory of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia, which are used to analyze the profit and inventory situation of different oils and fats [41][44][46][47][49] 3.5 Cost Side - **Cost of Malaysian Palm Oil**: The report shows charts of the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price of Malaysian palm oil, which are used to analyze the cost of Malaysian palm oil [51][52] - **Cost of Rapeseed Oil and Rapeseed**: The report shows charts of the CNF import price of rapeseed oil and the import cost price of imported rapeseed in China, which are used to analyze the cost of rapeseed oil and rapeseed [55] 3.6 Demand Side - **Oils and Fats Trading Volume**: The report shows charts of the cumulative trading volume of palm oil and soybean oil in the crop year, which are used to analyze the trading demand for different oils and fats [58] - **Biodiesel Profit**: The report shows charts of the POGO spread (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and the BOHO spread (soybean oil - heating oil), which are used to analyze the profit situation of biodiesel [60]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The policy of US biodiesel is favorable. The USDA June report shows that the expected ending inventory of US soybeans is 295 million bushels, and the production in Brazil and Argentina is 175 million tons and 48.5 million tons respectively. The MPOB report indicates that the production of Malaysian palm oil in June was 1.692 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.5%, and the inventory was 2.03 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.4% [30]. - In the short term, palm oil hovers around the 9000 mark, and the expected fluctuation range next week is 8850 - 9200. In the medium - to - long term, the main contract of palm oil breaks through the upper limit of the previous shock range, and the center of gravity may rise, with an expected fluctuation range of 8600 - 9400 [32]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Domestic Three Major Oil Spot Price Trends - From July 18 to July 25, 2025, the futures closing price of palm oil (P2509) rose from 8964 to 9104, a weekly increase of 1.56%, and the spot price rose from 9048 to 9172, a weekly increase of 1.37%. The futures closing price of rapeseed oil (OI2509) decreased from 9586 to 9492, a weekly decrease of 0.98%, and the spot price decreased from 9692 to 9590, a weekly decrease of 1.05%. The futures closing price of soybean oil (Y2509) rose from 8160 to 8166, a weekly increase of 0.07%, and the spot price remained unchanged at 8414 [4]. Three Major Oil Basis Changes - As of July 24, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 248 yuan/ton (an increase of 16 yuan/ton from the previous week), 98 yuan/ton (a decrease of 24 yuan/ton from the previous week), and 68 yuan/ton (a decrease of 30 yuan/ton from the previous week) respectively. As of July 25, 2025, the YP spread was - 794 yuan/ton (an increase of 12 yuan/ton from the previous week) [7]. Domestic Three Major Oil Inventory Trends - As of July 18, 2025, the inventory of rapeseed oil in coastal areas decreased to 92,500 tons (a decrease of 400 tons from the previous week), the commercial inventory of palm oil in factories increased to 591,400 tons (an increase of 28,400 tons from the previous week), the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills increased to 1,091,800 tons (an increase of 42,400 tons from the previous week), and the total inventory of the three major oils increased to 1,775,700 tons (an increase of 70,400 tons from the previous week) [10]. Supply Side of Palm Oil - MPOB palm oil supply - demand data shows that the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil in June increased by 2.4% to 2.03 million tons. In May 2025, the ending inventory of Indonesian palm oil decreased by 4.2% to 2.916 million tons [15]. Supply Side of Soybean Oil - As of July 18, 2025, the inventory of soybeans in national ports was 797,900 tons (a decrease of 25,200 tons from the previous week), the inventory of soybeans in major national oil mills was 642,240 tons (a decrease of 15,250 tons from the previous week), and the oil mill operating rate was 55% (a decrease of 4% from the previous week). As of July 24, 2025, the soybean crushing profit was - 721.20 yuan/ton (an increase of 25.95 yuan/ton from the previous week) [20]. Supply Side of Rapeseed Oil - As of July 18, 2025, the total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 20,000 tons (an increase of 5,000 tons from the previous week). As of July 25, 2025, the import rapeseed crushing profit was 255.60 yuan/ton (a decrease of 34.76 yuan/ton from the previous week) [23]. Demand Side - On July 24, 2025, the trading volume of palm oil in major oil mills was 866 tons, the trading volume of first - grade soybean oil was 35,000 tons, and the POGO spread was 364.24 US dollars/ton (an increase of 35 US dollars/ton from the previous week). The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 8.65 million tons [29]. Strategy Recommendation - This week, the supply - demand data of Indonesia is favorable, but high - frequency data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil increases and exports decrease, and the expectation of inventory accumulation strengthens, with palm oil fluctuating at a high level. The consumption of Indonesian biodiesel this year has reached 7.42 million kiloliters, accounting for 47.5% of the 2025 quota. From July 1 - 20, the production of Malaysian palm oil increased by 6.19% month - on - month, and exports decreased by 3.5% month - on - month, increasing the expectation of inventory accumulation in July [31].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures may strengthen slowly after oscillating in the range of 4300 - 4350 ringgit, but are likely to weaken after the end - of - month market re - assesses concerns about inventory growth. Domestic palm oil futures maintain a near - strong and far - weak pattern, and attention should be paid to whether it can stand firmly above 9000 yuan after oscillating in the 9000 - 9200 range. - The USDA's increase in the industrial use of US soybean oil to more than half of consumption and the hope for Indian Diwali stocking boost the palm oil and vegetable oil markets. CBOT soybean oil may rise again in the short term. In the domestic market, the oil mills'催提 before contract execution expiration in August has a negative impact on the spot basis, but the trade - cost support and increasing demand after July will support the basis [1]. Sugar - Brazil's sugar production in the second half of June decreased more than expected. If the sugar - to - ethanol ratio is adjusted downward, Brazil's output may not meet expectations. The price of raw sugar may find a short - term bottom, but the overall trend is still bearish due to the expected increase in production. In the domestic market, low inventory supports the spot price in Guangxi, but the entry of refined sugar into the market and expected increase in imports will lead to a marginal loosening of supply - demand, so a bearish view is maintained after a rebound [4]. Corn - The policy auction of imported corn has limited impact. Supply - side factors such as tight remaining grain, traders' reluctance to sell, and transportation disruptions from heavy rainfall keep the number of corn - arriving vehicles low. However, low profit margins limit the willingness of deep - processing enterprises to raise prices. Demand - side factors show low deep - processing startup rates and sufficient feed - enterprise inventories. Wheat has a substitution advantage but is supported by the price - support policy, limiting the decline of corn prices. In the medium term, tight supply, low imports, and increasing aquaculture consumption will support corn prices. In the short term, the market is quiet, and the market may fluctuate narrowly [7]. Meal - US soybeans are at the bottom and may be supported by expected drought in the main production areas in August and improved trade expectations. Brazilian soybeans are firm due to high premiums, but Chinese purchase rumors of US soybeans suppress the rise of Brazilian premiums. In the domestic market, soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the basis is oscillating at a low level. Short - term supply is high, but the continuity of soybean arrivals after October is uncertain, so the basis has limited downside. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [10]. Cotton - The downstream demand of the cotton industry is still weak, but the rising cotton price has led to some follow - up price increases. The inventory pressure from the sale of old cotton after the rise in Zhengzhou cotton prices is not concentrated, and the tight inventory situation is difficult to resolve before the new cotton harvest. In the short term, domestic cotton prices may oscillate at a high level, and will face pressure after the new cotton is listed [12]. Pork - The recent rise in the pork futures market is driven by capital sentiment. The current supply - demand situation is weak. Although there may be a short - term boost at the end of the month, the subsequent resumption of group - farm sales and the need to sell large pigs from small - scale farmers suggest that short - term pig prices are not optimistic. Spot prices are expected to bottom - oscillate, and the upside of the near - month 09 contract is limited. The far - month contracts are affected by policies, and caution should be exercised in trading [15]. Eggs - The supply of eggs is sufficient due to the high inventory of laying hens, but high - temperature weather has reduced egg weight and production rates, resulting in a tight supply of large - sized eggs. The peak - season demand for eggs has started, with increased participation from traders and food enterprises. The price of eggs is expected to rise this week, but the increase may be limited by sufficient supply and high - temperature weather [19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Data Palm Oil - On July 24, the spot price of Jiangsu Grade 1 palm oil was 8360 yuan/ton, up 0.60% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2509 was 8166 yuan/ton, up 1.14%. The basis was 194 yuan/ton, down 17.80%. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 21,695 [1]. Soybean Oil - On July 24, the spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree soybean oil was 9050 yuan/ton, up 0.56%; the futures price of P2509 was 8994 yuan/ton, up 1.22%. The basis was - 54 yuan/ton, down 1000.00%. The import cost and profit of palm oil in Guangzhou Port showed corresponding changes [1]. Rapeseed Oil - On July 24, the spot price of Jiangsu Grade 4 rapeseed oil was 9570 yuan/ton, up 0.21%; the futures price of OI509 was 9492 yuan/ton, up 0.38%. The basis was 78 yuan/ton, down 17.02% [1]. Sugar - On July 24, the futures price of sugar 2601 was 2668 yuan/ton, up 0.21%; the futures price of 2509 was 5866 yuan/ton, up 0.55%. The basis, warehouse receipts, and other indicators also changed accordingly. In the spot market, the prices in Nanning and Kunming showed different trends, and the import prices of Brazilian sugar decreased [3]. Corn - On July 25, the futures price of corn 2509 was 2318 yuan/ton, down 0.13%. The basis, 9 - 1 spread, and other indicators changed accordingly. For corn starch, the futures price of 2509 was 2669 yuan/ton, down 0.22%, and the basis increased [7]. Meal - On July 25, the spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal was 2860 yuan/ton, down 2.05%; the futures price of M2509 was 3025 yuan/ton, down 2.26%. The basis, import - crushing profit, and other indicators of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybeans all changed [10]. Cotton - On July 25, the futures price of cotton 2509 was 14160 yuan/ton, down 0.14%; the futures price of 2601 was 14065 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis, 9 - 1 spread, and other indicators showed corresponding changes. In the spot market, the prices of Xinjiang - delivered cotton and other indicators increased slightly [12]. Pork - On July 25, the futures price of pork 2511 was 14210 yuan/ton, down 0.63%; the futures price of 2509 was 14365 yuan/ton, down 1.54%. The basis, 9 - 11 spread, and other indicators changed accordingly. Spot prices in different regions decreased to varying degrees [15]. Eggs - On July 25, the futures price of the egg 09 contract was 3636 yuan/500KG, down 0.03%; the futures price of the 08 contract was 3562 yuan/500KG, down 1.41%. The basis, 9 - 8 spread, and other indicators changed accordingly. The prices of egg - producing areas, egg - chicken seedlings, and other related indicators also showed different trends [18]. Industry Situation Sugar - The cumulative national sugar production was 1116.21 million tons, up 12.03% year - on - year; the cumulative national sugar sales were 811.38 million tons, up 23.07%. The cumulative sugar production in Guangxi was 646.50 million tons, up 4.59%, and the monthly sales in Guangxi decreased by 3.26%. The national and Guangxi sugar sales rates increased, and the national industrial inventory decreased by 9.56% [3]. Cotton - The commercial inventory decreased by 10.2% month - on - month, the industrial inventory decreased by 2.3%, the import volume decreased by 25.0%, and the bonded - area inventory decreased by 2.7%. The yarn and fabric inventory days increased, the cotton outbound shipping volume increased by 22.6%, and the processing profit of spinning enterprises decreased by 0.9%. The retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles increased by 4.1%, and the export situation of textiles and clothing showed different trends [12]. Pork - The daily slaughter volume increased by 0.73%, the weekly white - strip pork price decreased by 1.01%, the weekly piglet and sow prices remained unchanged, the weekly average slaughter weight decreased by 0.27%, the weekly self - breeding profit decreased by 32.11%, the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit decreased by 159.05%, and the monthly inventory of breeding sows increased by 0.10% [15].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is in a state of low valuation and oversupply, with no clear directional driver yet. The domestic soybean import cost is oscillating and slightly rising due to a single - supply source. The soybean or protein supply is still in surplus, and the domestic soybean meal market has a complex situation of multiple long and short factors [2][4]. - The palm oil market is influenced by various factors. The US biodiesel policy and the expected B50 policy in Indonesia support the price, but the high - level production forecast, high production in producing areas, and other factors limit the upside space [6][9]. - The domestic sugar market may face increased import supply pressure in the second half of the year, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is likely to continue to decline if the external market price does not rebound significantly [12]. - The cotton market has shown a partial rebound, but the downstream consumption is average, and the potential issuance of sliding - scale import quotas is a negative factor [15]. - The egg market is currently stable with limited trading. The short - term price is guided by the spot price and lacks a clear trend, while the post - festival contracts after September may offer short - selling opportunities [18][19]. - The pig market has a short - term divergence between futures and spot prices. The market has expectations of capacity reduction in the future, but the hedging pressure is high. Attention should be paid to the pressure after the seasonal rebound [22]. 3. Summary by Category Soybean/Meal - **Important Information**: North American weather is favorable, limiting the upside space of US soybeans. The domestic soybean meal futures prices fell at night on Thursday, and the spot prices dropped significantly. The downstream inventory days are higher than the same period last year. The domestic soybean import cost is affected by a single - supply source and is oscillating slightly upward [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The soybean meal market has multiple long and short factors. It is recommended to try long positions at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to the crushing profit and supply pressure at the higher end, waiting for new drivers from the Sino - US tariff situation and the supply side [4]. Oil - **Important Information**: The high - frequency export data of Malaysian palm oil shows different trends in different periods. The production in July has increased. The MPOB expects an increase in the production and export of Malaysian palm oil in 2025, while the GAPKI expects a decrease in Indonesia's palm oil exports. The domestic palm oil is oscillating, and the net long positions of foreign - funded institutions in the three major oils have changed slightly [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: The palm oil price is rising due to the optimistic sentiment in the commodity market. The US biodiesel policy supports the price, but the upside space is limited by factors such as high - level production expectations, high production in producing areas, and uncertain RVO rules. It should be regarded as an oscillating market [9]. Sugar - **Important Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price rose slightly on Thursday. The spot prices of sugar in different regions showed different trends. The sugarcane yield and sugar content in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased in June [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: The domestic sugar market is in a good import profit window, and the import supply pressure may increase in the second half of the year. If the external market price does not rebound significantly, the Zhengzhou sugar price is likely to continue to decline [12]. Cotton - **Important Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to oscillate on Thursday. The spot price of cotton in Xinjiang increased slightly. The weather in major cotton - producing areas is favorable, and the expected yield per unit of new cotton in 2025 is expected to increase [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: Although the Zhengzhou cotton price has rebounded, the downstream consumption is average. The potential issuance of sliding - scale import quotas in July - August is a negative factor [15]. Egg - **Important Information**: The egg prices in most regions are stable, with only a few adjustments. The inventory of eggs in the market is small, the demand in the sales areas is stable, and the trading volume is average [17][18]. - **Trading Strategy**: High temperatures have reduced the egg - laying rate, and the supply pressure has eased. The short - term price is guided by the spot price and lacks a clear trend. The post - festival contracts after September may offer short - selling opportunities [19]. Pig - **Important Information**: The domestic pig prices continued to fall on Thursday. The market supply is sufficient, and the terminal consumption is weak [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: There is a short - term divergence between futures and spot prices in the pig market. The market has expectations of capacity reduction in the future, but the hedging pressure is high. Attention should be paid to the pressure after the seasonal rebound [22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The soybean oil futures market is in a weak state, with intensified competition between international cost support and loose domestic supply - demand. Short - term market volatility is increased by US soybean产区 weather disturbances and the approaching tariff negotiation deadline on August 1st, but high domestic inventory and weak palm oil exports limit the upward momentum. In the medium term, soybean oil is expected to maintain a pattern of bottom - building through oscillations [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Overall Performance - On July 22, 2025, the soybean oil futures market showed a downward trend. The main contract y2509 closed at 8,076 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton or - 0.59% from the previous day. The trading volume was 297,000 lots, and the open interest was 521,000 lots. In the spot market, the average price of soybean oil in Jiangsu was 8,230 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day. The trading volume in the futures market shrank by 5.4% month - on - month, and the open interest decreased, indicating strong market wait - and - see sentiment. The spot market price also declined, with positive basis but light trading [3]. 3.2 Macro and Fundamental Analysis - Internationally, the soybean oil market is significantly affected by weather disturbances in US soybean - growing areas and the approaching tariff negotiation deadline. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate dropped to 68% due to continuous high - temperature pressure in the Midwest. Although rainfall in some areas has alleviated the drought, high - temperature risks remain in the next two weeks, supporting the cost side of the external market. With the August 1st tariff negotiation deadline approaching, the EU has prepared counter - measures, and the market is worried about trade frictions affecting the global soybean supply chain. - Domestically, the supply is loose, with continuous accumulation of soybean oil inventory and high pressure on oil mills to prompt delivery. Southern high - temperature weather suppresses catering consumption, and slow terminal pick - up of goods depresses the spot basis. The sentiment in the international oil market has cooled down. From July 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil exports decreased by 3.5% - 7.3% month - on - month, while production increased by 6.19%, weakening the supply - demand situation and indirectly dragging down soybean oil. However, biodiesel policies still provide support, as the US biodiesel tax credit policy continues to limit the downside space of oils [8][9]. 3.3 Conclusion and Outlook - The soybean oil futures contract y2509 continues to be weak. In the short term, weather disturbances in US soybean - growing areas and the tariff negotiation deadline on August 1st increase market volatility and raise the risk premium of the external market. But high domestic inventory and weak palm oil exports limit the upward momentum. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the sustainability of weather speculation, the implementation of trade policies, and the resilience of biodiesel demand. It is expected that soybean oil will maintain a pattern of bottom - building through oscillations [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The soybean and soybean meal markets are facing a complex situation with both bullish and bearish factors. The overall trend is expected to be range - bound. The domestic soybean import cost may be difficult to decline before the Sino - US soybean trade improves [2]. - The palm oil market is affected by multiple factors such as bio - diesel policies and production levels. It is expected to be volatile, with potential upside in the fourth quarter but limited by various negative factors [2][9]. - The domestic sugar market may see a downward trend in the future due to potential import pressure, assuming no significant rebound in the external market [12]. - The cotton market has limited upside potential due to potential issuance of import quotas and general downstream consumption [15]. - The egg market lacks a clear trend in the short - term, and for post - festival contracts, short - selling opportunities after rebounds can be considered [18]. - The pig market has high - valued futures but faces risks such as over - hedging and potential supply pressure after the seasonal rebound [21]. 3. Summary by Directory Soybean/M粕类 - **Market Situation**: Wednesday night, US soybean and soybean meal futures declined. The good North American weather restricts the upside, but low valuation, good old - crop sales, and biodiesel policies support demand. The domestic soybean import cost is rising slightly due to a single supply source. The domestic soybean meal market is characterized by low valuation, high short - term supply, active downstream pick - up, and cost support for 9 - 1 month soybean purchases [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: With the soybean meal market having both bullish and bearish factors, it is recommended to buy on dips at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the upper end, while waiting for progress on Sino - US tariffs and new supply - side drivers [4]. Fats and Oils - **Important Information**: Malaysian palm oil export data shows different trends in different periods in June, and production increased in July. As of July 15, 2025, the total vegetable oil inventory in Indian ports increased by 18% in half a month. The domestic palm oil market was volatile on Wednesday, and the net long positions of foreign capital in the three major fats and oils decreased slightly [6][7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The palm oil market is expected to be volatile. There is a potential for price increase in the fourth quarter due to the Indonesian B50 policy, but the upside is limited by factors such as annual - level production increase expectations and uncertain RVO rules [9]. Sugar - **Key Information**: On Wednesday, Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to fluctuate. The 9 - month contract of Zheng sugar closed at 5834 yuan/ton, up 0.19%. The import of syrup and premixed powder decreased year - on - year in 2025 [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: The domestic sugar market may see a downward trend in the future due to potential import pressure, assuming no significant rebound in the external market [12]. Cotton - **Key Information**: On Wednesday, Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to fluctuate. The 9 - month contract of Zheng cotton closed at 14180 yuan/ton, down 0.32%. The national new cotton yield per mu in 2025 is expected to increase by 2.5% [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: Although the Zhengzhou cotton price has rebounded, the downstream consumption is average, and the potential issuance of import quotas in July - August is a negative factor for cotton prices [15]. Eggs - **Spot Information**: The national egg price mainly increased. The main production area's average price rose to 3.31 yuan/jin. The egg market trading was stable, and the egg price is expected to be mostly stable with a few increases [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term egg market lacks a clear trend and is mainly guided by the spot price. For post - festival contracts, short - selling opportunities after rebounds can be considered [18]. Pigs - **Spot Information**: The domestic pig price mainly declined. The production side's sales were active, but the consumption side was weak, and the pig price is expected to continue to be weak [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures market is highly valued, but there are risks such as over - hedging and potential supply pressure after the seasonal rebound [21].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Agricultural Products Morning Report of Wukuang Futures on July 23, 2025, covering multiple agricultural product sectors including soybeans, oils, sugar, cotton, eggs, and pigs [1] Group 2: Soybean and Meal Core View - The U.S. soybean night session declined on Tuesday. Good North American weather limits the upside, but with slightly low valuation, strong old - crop sales, and biodiesel policies supporting demand, it is expected to maintain a range - bound trend. The domestic soybean meal spot prices were mixed on Tuesday, with transactions being average and提货 reaching 190,000 tons, and downstream inventory days exceeding last year's level. The domestic soybean crushing volume was 2.3055 million tons last week and is expected to be 2.2351 million tons this week [2] Transaction Strategy - The external soybean import cost is oscillating due to low valuation, EPA policy support, and single - source supply from Brazil from September to January, but the overall soybean or protein supply is still in surplus. The domestic soybean meal market has low valuation, short - term high supply, active downstream提货, and medium - to - high inventory days for feed enterprises. However, the soybean procurement from September to January has cost support due to Sino - U.S. tariffs. It is recommended to buy on dips at the lower end of the soybean meal cost range, pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the upper end, and wait for progress on Sino - U.S. tariffs and new supply - side drivers [4] Group 3: Oils Important Information - High - frequency export data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1 to 10 are expected to increase by 5.31% - 12%, from June 1 to 15 are expected to decrease by 5.29% - 6.16% month - on - month, and from June 1 to 20 are expected to decrease by 3.57% - 7.31% month - on - month. SPPOMA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 35.28% from July 1 to 10, 17.06% from July 1 to 15, and 6.19% from July 1 to 20 in 2025. As of July 15, 2025, India's total vegetable oil inventory at ports has risen to 855,679 metric tons, a surge of 18% in just half a month compared to June 30 [6] Core View - The domestic palm oil oscillated on Tuesday. With a positive sentiment in the commodity market, the net long positions of foreign capital in the three major oils may start to decline. The EPA policy, the long - term B50 policy expectation, and limited Southeast Asian supply boost the annual operation center of oils, but the Southeast Asian palm oil production has recovered significantly year - on - year, and there are still negative factors. The domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [7] Transaction Strategy - The recent optimistic sentiment in the commodity market has pushed the palm oil price to continue rising. The U.S. biodiesel policy draft exceeding expectations supports the oil price center. If demand countries maintain normal imports and palm oil production in producing areas remains at a neutral level from July to September, the inventory in producing areas may remain stable, and there may be an upward expectation in the fourth quarter due to Indonesia's B50 policy. However, the current valuation is relatively high, and the upside is restricted by factors such as annual - level production increase expectations, high palm oil production in producing areas, undetermined RVO rules, and weak edible demand in major demand countries. It should be viewed as oscillating [9] Group 4: Sugar Important Information - On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to oscillate. The closing price of the September contract was 5,823 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton or 0.27% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, Guangxi sugar - making groups quoted 6,010 - 6,090 yuan/ton, down 0 - 20 yuan/ton from the previous day; Yunnan sugar - making groups quoted 5,820 - 5,860 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; processing sugar mills' mainstream quotes were in the range of 6,180 - 6,220 yuan/ton, down 0 - 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis between Guangxi spot and the Zhengzhou sugar main contract (sr2509) was 187 yuan/ton. In June 2025, China imported 115,500 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 103,500 tons. From January to June 2025, China imported 459,100 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 492,400 tons. As of June in the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, China imported 1.0983 million tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 269,500 tons [11] Transaction Strategy - China is currently in the best import profit window in the past five years, and the import supply pressure may increase in the second half of the year. Assuming that the external price does not rebound significantly, the Zhengzhou sugar price is more likely to continue to decline [12] Group 5: Cotton Important Information - On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price was weakly oscillating. The closing price of the September contract was 14,225 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton or 0.28% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B Xinjiang machine - picked delivery price was 15,330 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis between the 3128B Xinjiang machine - picked delivery price and the Zhengzhou cotton main contract (CF2509) was 1,105 yuan/ton. According to the latest weekly crop growth report data from USDA, as of the week ending July 20, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of U.S. cotton was 57%, up 3 percentage points from the previous week, rising for the fourth consecutive week and reaching the highest level in the same period in four years; the squaring rate was 71%, up 10 percentage points from the previous week and 8 percentage points lower than the same period last year; the boll - setting rate was 33%, up 10 percentage points from the previous week and 7 percentage points lower than the same period last year [14] Transaction Strategy - Although the Sino - U.S. trade agreement has not been finalized, the Zhengzhou cotton price has rebounded to the level before the announcement of U.S. equivalent tariffs, partially reflecting positive expectations. In terms of fundamentals, the recent downstream consumption is average. The market expects that sliding - scale import quotas may be increased from July to August, which is a potential negative factor for cotton prices [15] Group 6: Eggs Important Information - National egg prices were mostly stable, with a few rising and a few slightly falling. The average price in the main producing areas rose 0.04 yuan to 3.23 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan remained unchanged at 2.7 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao rose 0.11 yuan to 3.18 yuan/jin. The remaining egg inventory is not large, the demand in the sales areas has slightly improved, and dealers' purchasing enthusiasm is okay. The egg market trading is stable, and today's egg prices are expected to mostly rise and a few remain stable [17][18] Transaction Strategy - High temperatures have led to a decline in egg - laying rates, alleviating supply pressure and igniting market stocking sentiment. The spot price bottomed out earlier and the increase was higher than expected, causing short - sellers in the near - month contracts to flee. However, long - sellers lack confidence under the high premium, and the price will mainly oscillate in the short term, lacking a clear trend. For contracts after September, the earlier bottoming of the spot price further reduces the sentiment of culling hens. With limited cost changes and the expectation of continuous increase in theoretical supply, continue to pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the price rebounds, and be aware of the risks of spot price fluctuations and large open interest [19] Group 7: Pigs Important Information - Domestic pig prices generally fell yesterday. The average price in Henan dropped 0.05 yuan to 14.48 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan remained unchanged at 13.57 yuan/kg. Farmers are actively selling pigs, and the market supply is sufficient. High temperatures and rainfall have suppressed pork demand. Today's pig prices may be stable or decline [21] Transaction Strategy - In the short term, the increase in basic supply is limited, and there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation. After digesting the selling pressure in the middle of the month, the spot price may rise again in August, but it is difficult to reach a new high. The futures price has obvious support at the valuation end due to the discount. For the September contract, focus on buying on dips. Starting from the fourth quarter of the second half of the year, the inventory accumulation period will gradually begin. The replenishment of散户 pens and the increase in basic supply will add pressure to the pre - Spring Festival market. However, the futures price has already factored in the expectation in advance, and the premium for far - month contracts is insufficient. For off - season contracts such as November, wait for short - selling or hedging opportunities after the price rebounds, and avoid excessive short - selling [22]