Economic Overview - In the first quarter of 2025, Jiangmen's GDP reached 91.723 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.8% [2][6] - Jiangmen's GDP growth rate is lower than the provincial average of 4.1% [2] Sector Performance - The primary industry added value was 5.238 billion yuan, growing by 0.1% [2] - The secondary industry added value was 37.980 billion yuan, with a growth of 2.7% [2] - The tertiary industry added value was 48.505 billion yuan, showing a growth of 3.3% [2] Trade Performance - Jiangmen's total import and export volume in the first quarter was 47.15 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 10.1% [4] - The export volume was 40.44 billion yuan, increasing by 13.2% [4] County-Level GDP - Xinhui led the city with a GDP of 22.834 billion yuan, while Heshan showed the highest growth rate at 4% [5][7] - Other counties ranked by GDP include Pengjiang (21.361 billion yuan), Taishan (11.815 billion yuan), and Kaiping (10.978 billion yuan) [5][7] Industrial Growth - The total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery was 13.891 billion yuan, with a growth of 0.9% [8] - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 3.4%, with manufacturing increasing by 4.7% [8] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in Jiangmen decreased by 21.7% year-on-year [9] - The decline in investment was observed across all sectors, with the primary industry down by 36% and the secondary industry down by 26.1% [9] Consumer Spending - The total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 30.796 billion yuan, growing by 1.8% [10] - Urban retail sales grew by 1.7%, while rural retail sales increased by 2.1% [10]

东方金诚宏观研究 东方金诚宏观研究 一季度财政收入表现偏弱，财政支出力度大幅提升 —— 2025 年 3 月财政数据点评 分析师：瞿瑞 冯琳 事件：财政部公布数据显示，2025 年 3 月，全国一般公共预算收入同比增长 0.3%， 1-2 月为下降 1.6%；3 月全国一般公共预算支出同比增长 5.7%，1-2 月为增长 3.4%；1-3 月全国政府性基金收入累计同比下降 11.0%，1-2 月为下降 10.7%；1-3 月全国政府性基金 支出累计同比增长 11.1%，1-2 月为增长 1.2%。 主要观点：尽管 3 月当月财政收入增速有所改善，但一季度财政收入端整体表现仍偏 弱，其中，一般公共预算收入累计同比下降 1.1%，低于去年全年累计增速；一季度政府性 基金收入同比下降 11.0%，主要受国有土地出让金收入同比降幅扩大拖累，背后是土地市 场持续低迷。从支出端来看，一季度广义财政支出累计同比增长 10.1%，其中，一般公共 预算支出同比增长 4.2%，主要源于今年年初政府债券发行提速，充实了可用财政资金。同 时，今年一季度新增专项债发行量同比高增，加之土地出让收入安排的支出同比降幅收窄， 拉动政府性基金 ...

非税持续回落（ 5.9% ， 1-2 月 11% ） ，据财政部介绍， （一季度非税增幅）主要是部分上市中央金融企业分红入库、地方多渠道盘活资产等带动。 此外， 企 业所得税与非税去年以来首现"脱钩"，或显示地方财政压力阶段性缓释 （详见 《 2024 年财政数据的四个反常和启示》 ） ， 积极信号可继续观察。 文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 高拓（13705969808） 事项 3月广义财政收入同比-1.7%，1-2月同比-2.9%；3月广义财政支出同比10.1%，1-2月同比2.9%。 报告摘要 一、 收入端：单月增速转正，装备制造、科技等行业税收持续良好表现 3 月，财政收入同比 0.3% （ 1-2 月 -1.6% ），一季度预算收入进度 27.4% ，低于过去三年同期平均水平 。分税收和非税收入看： 税收降幅收窄（ -2.2% ， 1-2 月 -3.9% ），装备制造、科技等行业税收持续良好表现。 一季度， 制造业方面 ，装备制造业保持较高增幅，其中，铁路船舶航空 航天设备制造业、计算机通信设备制造业税收收入分别增长 32.4 ...

Revenue Summary - In the first quarter, the national general public budget revenue was 60,189 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points compared to January-February. March saw a monthly increase turning positive [1] - Tax revenue for the first quarter was 47,450 billion yuan, down 3.5% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue was 12,739 billion yuan, up 8.8% year-on-year [1][3] - March's general public budget revenue increased by 0.3% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.9 percentage points compared to January-February, primarily driven by a narrowing decline in tax revenue [1][3] Expenditure Summary - In the first quarter, national general public budget expenditure reached 72,815 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, with March's growth accelerating to 5.7% [2] - The expenditure progress for the first quarter was 24.5%, higher than the average of 23.7% over the past five years, indicating a continuation of proactive fiscal measures [2] - Major expenditure areas included social security and employment at 13,570 billion yuan (up 7.9%), education at 11,249 billion yuan (up 7.8%), and health at 5,848 billion yuan (up 2.2%) [5] Tax Revenue Performance - In March, major tax revenues showed improvement, with VAT increasing by 4.9% year-on-year, and corporate income tax rising by 16.0%, indicating potential marginal improvement in corporate profitability [4] - Non-tax revenue growth was driven by dividends from central financial enterprises and local asset management, with a year-on-year increase of 8.8% [4] - The significant decline of 58.5% in personal income tax was attributed to the timing of year-end bonuses and a high base from the previous year [4] Government Fund Overview - In the first quarter, government fund budget revenue was 9,247 billion yuan, down 11% year-on-year, while expenditure was 19,769 billion yuan, up 11.1% [6] - Revenue from state-owned land use rights fell by 15.9% to 6,849 billion yuan, with related expenditures also declining by 11% [6]

财政部近日发布的数据显示，一季度，全国一般公共预算收入60189亿元，同比下降1.1%，降幅比1至2 月收窄0.5%，其中，3月月度增幅由负转正。从一季度来看，一般公共预算收入累计同比下降1.1%；3 月当月同比增长0.3%，增速较1至2月明显加快。中央财经大学教授温来成表示，3月财政收入由负转 正，表明经过各方努力，经济好转的情况逐步传导到财政收入端，今年前两个月财政收入下降的趋势在 3月得到扭转。(金融时报) ...

Revenue and Expenditure Trends - In March, national public budget revenue was 16,333 billion yuan, while expenditure was 27,719 billion yuan[2] - March fiscal revenue showed a slight recovery with a growth of +0.25%, but Q1 revenue was still down 1.1% year-on-year[3] - Tax revenue decreased by 2.2% in March, with a cumulative decline of 3.5% in Q1, falling short of the annual target of +3.7%[3] Fiscal Policy and Spending - Public fiscal expenditure in March grew by 5.7% year-on-year, with Q1 expenditure growth at 4.2%, slightly above the annual budget target of 4%[4] - The expenditure progress for Q1 was approximately 24.5% of the annual target, consistent with 2024 levels[4] - Social security and education expenditures increased by 9% and 8% respectively in March, while technology spending decreased by 4.8%[4] Government Fund and Debt Issuance - Government fund revenue in March was 2,866 billion yuan, down 12%, with land transfer revenue declining by 16.5%[4] - Government fund expenditure in March was 8,411 billion yuan, a significant increase of 28% year-on-year[4] - A total of 9,603 billion yuan in special bonds were issued in Q1, with issuance pace faster than in 2024 but slower than in 2022 and 2023[4] Future Outlook and Risks - The need for accelerated fiscal spending is emphasized due to potential tariff impacts and economic uncertainties[5] - Expected measures include increased consumer support and tax refunds for export enterprises[5] - Risks include potential economic downturns and insufficient policy execution[5]

Revenue Performance - In January-February 2025, general public budget revenue decreased by 1.6% year-on-year, slightly below the annual revenue budget target by 0.1%[4] - Tax revenue fell by 3.9% year-on-year, a decrease of 6.6 percentage points compared to the previous month[4] - Non-tax revenue increased by 11% year-on-year, but this was a decline of 83 percentage points from the previous month[4] Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure grew by 3.4% year-on-year, maintaining a rapid expenditure pace[4] - Social welfare and employment expenditures rose by 5.4% year-on-year, driven by increased spending in social security and health sectors[4] - Infrastructure spending decreased by 5.6% year-on-year, primarily due to declines in urban community and agricultural water affairs expenditures[4] Fund and Policy Outlook - Government fund revenue fell by 10.7% year-on-year, mainly due to a decline in land transfer income[4] - Government fund expenditure increased by 1.2% year-on-year, with central government fund expenditure surging by 74.2%, significantly outpacing local government growth of 0.6%[4] - The fiscal policy is expected to focus on increasing the deficit ratio, enhancing expenditure intensity, and accelerating spending progress throughout the year[4]

Revenue Performance - In January-February 2025, general public budget revenue decreased by 1.6% year-on-year, slightly below the annual revenue budget target by 0.1%[5] - Tax revenue fell by 3.9% year-on-year, a decrease of 6.6 percentage points compared to the previous month[5] - Non-tax revenue increased by 11% year-on-year, but this was a significant drop of 83 percentage points from the previous month[5] Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure grew by 3.4% year-on-year, maintaining a rapid expenditure pace[5] - Social welfare and employment expenditures rose by 5.4%, reflecting a focus on social security and health spending[5] - Government fund expenditure increased by 1.2% year-on-year, with central government fund expenditure soaring by 74.2%, contrasting with a mere 0.6% increase at the local level[5] Future Outlook - The fiscal policy is expected to focus on increasing the deficit ratio and expenditure intensity, with plans for special bond issuance to accelerate spending[5] - There is an emphasis on supporting domestic demand and consumption, particularly in social security and employment sectors[5] - The central government has reserved sufficient tools and policy space to potentially introduce incremental policies throughout the year based on changing internal and external conditions[5]

Core Viewpoint - The fiscal data for January-February 2025 shows unusual trends, with public fiscal revenue experiencing a negative year-on-year growth while personal income tax saw a significant increase, reaching its highest growth rate in nearly 10 months. This divergence raises questions about the underlying factors driving these changes [1][3]. Group 1: Personal Income Tax Growth - The high growth rate of personal income tax at 26.7% year-on-year is attributed to the timing of the Spring Festival, which affected the collection of year-end bonuses. In years where the Spring Festival falls in January, the peak for personal income tax collection occurs in February, while in years where it falls in February, the peak occurs in March. This year's earlier Spring Festival compared to last year has amplified the growth in personal income tax for January-February [1][3]. Group 2: Tax Revenue Dynamics - Positive contributors to tax revenue include the securities transaction stamp duty and value-added tax, both benefiting from supportive policies. The securities transaction stamp duty has shown double-digit growth for five consecutive months due to increased trading enthusiasm in the stock market since the "924" policy [3][7]. - Negative contributors include corporate income tax, which saw a year-on-year decline of 10.4%, indicating ongoing challenges for businesses. Additionally, consumption-related taxes such as consumption tax and vehicle purchase tax are weaker than last year, and taxes related to imports are also experiencing negative growth. The real estate sector remains under pressure, with real estate-related taxes declining by 11.4% year-on-year and local land transfer revenue decreasing by 15.7% [7][10]. Group 3: Fiscal Expenditure Trends - Fiscal expenditure is shifting focus from infrastructure to technology and social welfare. Compared to last year, infrastructure-related fiscal spending has significantly decreased, with a year-on-year decline of 6.2% in January-February 2025, contrasting with a growth of 17.9% in the same period of 2024 [10][13]. - In contrast, expenditures related to technology, education, social security, and employment continue to show high growth rates of 10.5%, 7.7%, and 5.5% respectively, indicating a sustained commitment to these areas [13].

Revenue Analysis - In January-February 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 43,856 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%[4] - Tax revenue amounted to 36,349 billion yuan, down 3.9% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue increased by 11% to 7,507 billion yuan[4] Personal Income Tax Insights - The personal income tax saw a significant year-on-year increase of 26.7%, the highest growth rate in nearly 10 months, largely influenced by the timing of the Spring Festival[4] - The early Spring Festival this year compared to last year resulted in a front-loaded peak in personal income tax collection[4] Tax Revenue Contributors - The securities transaction stamp duty and value-added tax provided strong support to fiscal revenue, benefiting from policy initiatives and increased market activity[5] - Corporate income tax experienced a negative growth of -10.4%, indicating ongoing challenges for businesses[5] Expenditure Trends - Infrastructure-related fiscal spending decreased significantly, with a year-on-year decline of -6.2% in January-February 2025, compared to a growth of 17.9% in the same period of 2024[6] - Spending on technology, education, social security, and employment remained robust, with growth rates of 10.5%, 7.7%, and 5.5% respectively[6] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include policies falling short of expectations, unexpected changes in the domestic economic landscape, and fluctuations in exports[6]