12月11日：上交易日周三（12月10日）：国际黄金触底回升收阳，再度收线在短期均线上方，多头力量 加强，暗示后市仍有继续反弹的动力，再度上探4260美元附近阻力。突破则有望触及4340美元或更高位 置。反之继续遇阻则有维持当下的震荡区间波动继续调整走盘。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于4207.69美元/盎司，先行盘整后转回落，到欧盘及美盘大部分时段，又处 于4188-4205美元区间内震荡，一直到凌晨3点时段开盘，金价走低触及日内低点4181.85美元，迅速反 弹回升收复日内跌幅，录得日内高点4238.49美元，最终有所回撤，收于4228.35美元，日振幅56.64美 元，收涨20.66美元，涨幅0.49%。 影响上，日内在美联储利率决议公布前延续近日的震荡区间表现观望，一直到周四凌晨，美联储如期降 息25个基点，虽然一度卖事实走低录得日内低点； 但由于又表示会在未来30天内购买400亿美元短债（变相放水），以及鲍威尔虽未就近期是否再次降息 提供明确指引，但表示"不包含未来加息"情景，被市场解读为存在明年1月进一步降息的可能；再加上 特朗普批评鲍威尔：降息幅度太小，可以翻倍，应降至全球最低。进一步提升了市场对 ...

12月11日，A股市场震荡回调，受海外流动性宽松利好，截至10:26，有色50ETF（159652）逆势涨超1.11%，早盘涨幅一度逼近2%，盘中资金疯狂涌入，截 至发稿，有色50ETF（159652）盘中已获2300万份净申购，以盘中成交均价计算，有色50ETF（159652）盘中已获资金净流入超3500万元，基金最新规模超 35亿元！ 有色50ETF（159652）标的指数成分股多数冲高，资金矿业、中金黄金等涨超2%，洛阳钼业、华友钴业等涨超1%，北方稀土、中国铝业等回调。 【有色50ETF（159652）标的指数前十大成分股】 | 序号 | 代码 | 名称 | 申万―级行业 | 涨跌幅 | 估算权重 ▼ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 601899 | 紫金矿业 | 有色金属 | 2.83% | 15.73% | | 2 | 6039993 | 洛阳領ル | 有色金属 | 1.30% | 6.16% | | 3 | 600111 | 北方稀土 | 有色金属 | -0.02% | 6.01% | | 4 | 603799 | 华友钻业 | 有色金 ...

01 12月10日，A股市场调整，个股表现分化。房地产板块异军突起，多只房地产相关ETF位居ETF市场涨幅榜前列。 02 12月10日，农业板块表现亮眼。种业、土地流转、水产品等主题表现强势，农业股整体表现活跃，农业相关主题ETF涨 幅居前。 03 上周，科技类ETF显著吸金，多只相关主题ETF上周净流入额超10亿元。本周前两个交易日，资金持续流入科技类 ETF。其中，科创债、科创板代表指数、恒生科技指数等相关主题ETF显著吸金。 房地产类ETF领涨 今日，房地产板块表现强势，多只成分股涨停，房地产类ETF跻身ETF市场涨幅榜前列。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 今日涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 159768.SZ | 房地产ETF | 0.575 | 3.79% | | 159707.SZ | 地产ETF | 0.64 | 3.73% | | 512200.SH | 房地产ETF | 1.534 | 3.09% | | 515060.SH | 房地产ETF基金 | 0.732 | 2.95% | | 159542.SZ | 工程机械ETF | 1.419 | 2.23 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View - Fed rate cut expectations boost the precious metals market sentiment, with London platinum and palladium prices breaking through the trading range, and the main platinum and palladium contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange showing a slightly stronger intraday performance. In the medium to long term, platinum may continue to see price support under expectations of Fed easing, a continued structural deficit in supply and demand, and long - term expansion of demand in the hydrogen economy. Palladium's demand outlook is weakening due to over - concentration in the automotive catalyst field and the continuous popularization of new energy vehicles, with the market shifting from supply shortage to surplus. However, the bullish sentiment driven by rate cut expectations may support prices, and its current low price may make it a cost - effective option again. Recently, palladium prices have shown stronger resilience than platinum, and a subsequent catch - up rally may continue [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - Platinum's main contract closing price (daily, yuan/gram) is 444.45, up 4.75; palladium's main contract closing price (daily, yuan/gram) is 387.65, up 4.15. Platinum's main contract open interest (daily, lots) is 10387, down 277; palladium's main contract open interest (daily, lots) is 3179, up 90 [2] Spot Market - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum spot price (Pt9995) is 438.26, up 7.18; the Yangtze River palladium spot price is 366, up 6. The platinum main contract basis (daily, yuan/gram) is - 6.19, up 2.43; the palladium main contract basis (daily, yuan/gram) is - 21.65, up 1.85. Platinum's CFTC non - commercial long positions (weekly, contracts) are 9966, down 243; palladium's CFTC non - commercial long positions (weekly, contracts) are 3003, down 342 [2] Supply and Demand - The total annual supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.4 tons, down 0.8 tons; the total annual supply of palladium in 2025 is expected to be 293 tons, down 5 tons. The total annual demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.6 tons, up 25.6 tons; the total annual demand for palladium in 2025 is expected to be 287 tons, down 27 tons [2] Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index is 99.24, up 0.27; the VIX volatility index is 16.93, up 0.14; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 1.92%, up 0.01 [2] Industry News - The Fed is expected to cut rates for the third consecutive time with internal disagreements, and officials may hint at a pause. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the market has highly priced in a 25 - basis - point rate cut. White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett believes there is still much room for the Fed to cut rates. US President Trump said he will use support for immediate and substantial rate cuts as a "litmus test" for the new Fed chair and may adjust tariff policies to lower some commodity prices. ADP data shows that US private employers added an average of 4,750 jobs per week in the four weeks ending November 22, ending four consecutive weeks of job losses, and US job openings in October were 7.67 million, far exceeding the expected 7.117 million. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said the central bank will continue to slowly adjust monetary easing until it achieves a sustainable 2% inflation target and the policy rate returns to the natural rate level, and will increase bond purchases in "special cases" due to the recent rapid rise in interest rates [2] Key Points of Attention - At 03:00 on December 11, the Fed will announce its December FOMC meeting interest rate decision [2]

Core Viewpoint - The market is anticipating the last interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve this year, with a consensus leaning towards a rate cut. The potential new chair has indicated that the negative impact of a government shutdown on the economy is greater than expected, but a stronger economic rebound is anticipated in Q1 next year, suggesting that a "cautious rate cut" is appropriate, with a prediction of a 25 basis point cut in December [1][6]. Group 1: Market Overview - The overall Hong Kong stock market has experienced a pullback, but there is a noticeable trend of capital inflow, particularly into the Hang Seng Tech ETF (513130), which has seen a net inflow of 2.478 billion yuan over the past month, bringing its total size to 42.862 billion yuan and shares to 5.8522 billion, with a year-to-date increase of 25.5 billion shares [1][6]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of the Hang Seng Tech Index is 23.29 times, which is at the lower end of the past five years' range, making it more attractive compared to the Nasdaq's 42.21 times and the STAR Market's 152.29 times [1][6]. Group 2: Future Outlook for Hong Kong Tech Sector - The external environment suggests that maintaining monetary easing is crucial, especially with a weak job market, and a high probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut could alleviate global liquidity pressures, benefiting interest-sensitive Hong Kong tech assets [2][7]. - Internally, continuous inflow of southbound funds, improving profitability of leading companies, and low valuation levels are expected to provide resilience for the Hong Kong tech sector [2][7]. - Huatai Securities recommends focusing on liquidity turning points and sectors that have undergone significant adjustments, such as technology and pharmaceuticals, while also considering alpha opportunities in consumer goods [2][7]. Group 3: Hang Seng Tech ETF Characteristics - The Hang Seng Tech ETF (513130) closely tracks the Hang Seng Tech Index, which includes 30 strong R&D internet platforms and tech manufacturing companies, covering various sectors such as internet, media, software, automotive, and semiconductors, making it a comprehensive and representative index [3][7]. - The ETF offers advantages such as large scale, superior liquidity, and support for T+0 trading, with a management fee of only 0.2% per year, positioning it as a key tool for investors looking to invest in core Hong Kong tech assets [3][7].

日本银行总裁植田和男在众议院预算委员会上答辩（12月9日） 日银总裁植田和男9日表示："将从促进市场形成稳定利率的角度出发，灵活实施增加国债购买额等操 作"，欧美市场参与者认为"这与货币政策正常化背道而驰"，作出了抛售日元的反应…… 市场上认为"日本政府最终可能被迫进行实质性日元买入干预"的声音越来越多。新加坡星展集团控股公 司（DBS GroupHoldings）本周发布的最新汇率展望报告指出，虽然预计美国持续降息会导致美元走 弱，但"仅就美元兑日元汇率而言，美国的货币宽松政策是美元走弱的必要条件，却并非充分条件"。报 告总结称："如果日本的财政风险等因素未能阻碍日本央行的政策正常化，日本国债收益率未能实现有 序上行，则日元会下跌，最终极有可能引发日元买入干预"。 如果日元贬值态势加剧，日元兑欧元及澳元的下跌行情也将扩大到日元兑美元汇率，从而抵消"美元走 弱"的效果。9日，日元兑欧元汇率一度跌至1欧元兑182.5~182.9日元区间，刷新历史最低值，日元兑澳 元汇率也一度触及1澳元兑104.0~104.5日元区间，创下今年新低。日银总裁植田和男关于增加国债操作 的言论给外汇市场带来了巨大影响。 日经QUIC ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with silver prices experiencing narrow fluctuations due to a stable dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields, while geopolitical risks continue to support safe-haven buying [1][2]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - The market widely expects the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in its final meeting of the year, potentially bringing the target range down to 3.50%-3.75% [2]. - Recent inflation indicators show a slowdown in the disinflation process, and mixed signals from the labor market have led investors to adopt a cautious stance regarding monetary easing before 2026 [2]. - Data on U.S. household spending and inflation, particularly the preferred Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, indicate a weakening disinflation momentum [2]. Group 2: Precious Metals Analysis - Silver maintains a long-term bullish trend, but short-term movements are characterized by upward corrections followed by declines, with key support levels at 54-55 [3]. - Platinum prices are stable, with traders closely monitoring the dollar for new trading catalysts, needing to hold above the critical support area of 1620-1630 to build short-term upward momentum [3]. - The overall sentiment in the precious metals market is cautious, with investors focusing on monetary policy signals and macroeconomic data for guidance [1][2].

国债期货周报：表现结构分化，等待企稳信号 研究员：沈忱 CFA 期货从业证号：F3053225 投资咨询证号：Z0015885 目录 第一部分 周度核心要点分析及策略推荐 2 第二部分 相关数据追踪 10 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 ◼【策略推荐】 2 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 221/221/221 208/218/234 内容摘要 ◼【综合分析】 逻辑梳理：本周债市表现进一步分化，中短端走势偏震荡，但超长端调整加大。除明年货币宽松有望延续，而通胀预期已出现改善这 一基础叙事外，当前超长债投资者结构较为脆弱，市场对明年超长债供需失衡的担忧有所发酵以及海外部分国家长债收益率高位运行 等或也是导致超长端表现格外偏弱的重要原因。后续来看，虽然我们依旧认为当前基本面及流动性现状并不支持国债收益率持续走高 ，但短期内债市走势更多受投资者行为主导，在央行释放更为明确的呵护信号，抬升市场配 ...

【环球网财经综合报道】临近年底，部分A股投资者趋于稳健，多位分析人士表示，叠加市场短期缺乏催化因素，业 内机构倾向于短期或以震荡蓄势为主，红利、大市值风格或是较优选择。 彭博社近日发文称，全球基金管理公司如安盛集团和摩根大通看好中国市场，认为外国投资者的需求增强，而随着盈 利改善和通缩压力缓解，科技巨头和消费行业都有反弹潜力。尽管存在估值差异，市场扩张的一部分动力来自国内储 蓄和政府支持，中国家庭的巨额存款和监管支持下的保险公司需求可能成为市场上涨的关键。 报道还提出，根据摩根士丹利的数据显示，今年11月，外国长期投资基金在香港和中国内地购买了约1000亿美元的股 票，逆转了2022年1700亿美元的流出。流入资金完全来自追踪指数的被动投资者，而主动基金经理则退出了大约1500 亿美元。 对此，新加坡富达国际的组合经理乔治·埃夫斯塔休洛普洛斯认为："中国已经走出了困境，展现出更大的韧性，投资 者越来越接受一个可以提供多元化和创新的'可投资'中国。我现在更倾向于在市场下跌时买入中国股票。" 美国银行亚太区股票策略主管吴妮则表示："中国的下一波上涨将由全球基金驱动。" 中信证券则表示，去年"9.24行情"以来，两 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：木鱼ETF） 周五盘中大金融异动和盘后监管发力分析见《大金融"三记重拳"，券商ETF正切换至"价值牛"通道》。应该说从短期算情绪炒作空间未必多大，毕竟利好 是未来兑现，但长期来看坚定长投价值很确定。 而其最大意义在于，给市场长期慢牛走势提供了信心，指数级别难有大幅调整空间，有的是资金等着低吸。 而配置角度上，偏蓝筹的非银金融、资源、现金流、宽基系等，偏景气抱团的出海赛道都有逢低配置的逻辑。对于中期来说，出海依然是机构最请青睐的 方向，参考《出海新格局下，七类ETF打开增长的第二战场》。有这么多主题，谁有低吸机会就关注谁了，不会急着追。 只是操作上，谨慎追涨以防最后风格漂移资金归位。毕竟热点一多，就刺激电风扇了。 周五午后市场情绪暴涨，一方面有资金提前知道了盘后监管层的重磅发声，尤其是保险带动指数的作用很强。另外一方面，还有两个突发利好。 -报道称，百度AI芯片业务昆仑芯计划在香港IPO -金力永磁、中科三环、宁波韵升已获得通用出口许可证 前者带动半导体、港股科技，后者刺激稀土、有色金属。 所以我们多次强调，市场就算有时很磨人，却是资金在等着机会而已。更新更低的机会，都值得一试。 周五还 ...