Core Viewpoint - The April EPMI (Emerging Industry PMI) decreased by 10.2 points to 49.4, marking the largest decline for this month since 2014, with the absolute level being the second lowest for the same period, only higher than April 2022 [1][6][5]. Summary by Sections EPMI Overview - The April EPMI stands at 49.4, down 10.2 points, indicating a significant contraction in emerging industries [6][5]. - Among seven major sub-industries, only three are in the expansion zone, a decrease of four from March [1][7]. Sub-Indicators Analysis - Production, product orders, and export orders fell by 16.1, 15.4, and 17.6 points respectively, with export orders dropping below 40 [2][7]. - The production-to-demand ratio is at 2.6, better than the averages for 2023 and 2024 [2][7]. - Price indicators have also declined, with purchase prices and sales prices down by 4.8 and 4.4 points respectively [2][8]. - Employment indicators fell by 5.9 points, the largest monthly decline in 2023, with foreign trade estimated to support around 170 million jobs, accounting for 24% of total employment [2][7]. - Loan difficulty decreased by 3.3 points, indicating a more relaxed monetary policy environment [2][9]. Manufacturing PMI Outlook - The manufacturing PMI is likely to slow down in April, typically a peak season for industry, but historically shows a slight decline compared to March [3][9]. - High-frequency data indicates a slowdown in industries related to external demand, while domestic demand sectors like steel and coke show stronger operating rates [3][10]. Sector Performance - The energy-saving and environmental protection, as well as the biotechnology sectors, experienced relatively smaller declines, indicating their lower correlation with external demand [3][10]. - The new generation information technology, new energy vehicles, and new energy sectors are leading with a prosperity index above 50, driven by trends in artificial intelligence and supportive policies [3][11]. Policy Response - The EPMI data reflects external demand impacts, prompting policy attention, with the State Council emphasizing the need for counter-cyclical adjustments [4][12]. - A special long-term bond issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan is set to accelerate fiscal progress, with expectations for policy measures to stabilize growth in the upcoming months [4][12].

铝类产业日报 2025/4/2 撰写人：王福辉 从业资格证号：F03123381 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0019878 | | 撰写人：王福辉 从业资格证号：F03123381 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0019878 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 本月-下月合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 20,435.00 25.00 185,377.00 | -90.00↓ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) +10.00↑ 本月-下月合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) -8397.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 2,890.00 -10.00 210,173.00 | -61.00↓ +1.00↑ +17142.00↑ | | 期货市场 | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 231,225.00 | -8550.00↓ 库存:氧化铝:合计(周,万吨) | 323,790.00 | +8837 ...

| 品 种 | 点评 隔夜 LME 铜冲高回落，下跌 0.03%至 9692.5 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力下跌 0.1%至 79820 | | --- | --- | | | 元/吨；现货进口亏损 500 元/吨左右。宏观方面，美国 3 月 ISM 制造业指数 49，不及 预期 49.5 和前值 50.3，该数据今年首次出现萎缩，价格指数飙升，创 2022 年 6 月以来 | | 铜 | 的新高，工厂订单和就业表现低迷，凸显美新政府关税政策对经济的影响。美对等关税 | | | 细节即将落地，白宫宣城 4 月 2 日关税宣布后即生效，多国表示将采取反制措施。国内 | | | 方面，中国 3 月财新制造业 PMI 为 51.2，高于前值 50.8，创 2024 年 12 月来新高，显 | | | 示制造业生产经营活动继续加快扩张。库存方面，LME 铜下增加 1900 吨至 213275 | | | 吨；Comex 铜增加 1223.8 吨至 88473.19 吨；SHFE 铜仓单下降 1457 吨至 136003 吨； | | | BC 铜仓单维系 15017 吨。COMEX 铜库存连续增仓，或意味着前期套利头 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump may announce tariff details on the evening of April 1st or April 2nd, and Morgan Stanley suggests focusing on whether the announcement can clarify tariff policies and whether the tariff increase is large enough to further deteriorate the economic outlook. "April 2nd" is not the "end of bad news" for US stocks [7]. - For US soybeans, the planting area is in line with expectations but the quarterly inventory is higher than expected. In the medium - short term, the supply pressure is high, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and in the long - term, there is strong support. Attention should be paid to the weather in the US main producing areas and Trump's tariff policies [8][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Metals - **Gold**: Reached a new high. Media reported that the White House is considering "comprehensive high tariffs" again, and Citi said it is a "once - in - 40 - year" opportunity for gold mines [15][17]. - **Silver**: Fell due to the influence of non - ferrous metals [15]. - **Copper**: Due to the expectation of US tariff hikes, the market is cautious. Trump will announce tariff details on April 2nd, and there are also some micro - level events such as changes in China's copper imports and problems at a Chilean smelter [20][22]. - **Aluminum**: In a wide - range shock. The electrolytic aluminum and alumina markets have various data changes, and there are also news about a Vietnamese electrolytic aluminum project and the extraction of Russian aluminum from LME - certified warehouses [23][26]. - **Zinc**: Operating under pressure. China's March official manufacturing PMI was 50.5, with the fastest manufacturing expansion speed in a year [27][28]. - **Lead**: There may be pressure above. China's March official manufacturing PMI was 50.5 [30]. - **Nickel**: Nickel ore supports the cost of the pyrometallurgical process, and the accumulation of refined nickel inventory has not materialized. The Indonesian nickel iron project is gradually resuming production, and there are also policy adjustment signals for nickel resources [32][34]. - **Stainless steel**: In the short - term, the cost logic dominates, and there is still pressure on supply and demand in the medium - term [33]. - **Tin**: Stabilized and rebounded [37]. - **Industrial silicon**: The disk is still in a weak pattern. The market has various data changes such as price, inventory, and profit [41]. - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to the number of warehouse receipts today [41]. - **Carbonate lithium**: The proportion of second - registration without inspection is relatively high, and the disk may be under pressure. There are also news about lithium resource imports and the development of solid - state battery materials [44][47]. 3.2 Energy and Minerals - **Iron ore**: Weakly oscillating. China's March manufacturing PMI was 50.5% [49]. - **Rebar**: Oscillating repeatedly. There are changes in production, inventory, and demand data [50][52]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: Oscillating repeatedly. Similar to rebar, there are changes in production, inventory, and demand data [51][52]. - **Silicon iron**: Weakly oscillating due to the weakening of raw material prices [12]. - **Manganese silicon**: In a wide - range shock as the main producing areas are gradually reducing production [12][56]. - **Coke**: The disk is oscillating weakly [12][59]. - **Coking coal**: The disk is oscillating weakly [12][60]. - **Steam coal**: The inventory is at a high level, and the price is under pressure [64]. 3.3 Chemicals and Others - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The futures market has price and trading volume changes, and the spot market has a general trading atmosphere [68]. - **Para - xylene**: Supported by cost, with the maintenance of CNOOC Huizhou, a strategy of going long on PX and short on PTA is recommended [71]. - **PTA**: With the reduction of short - fiber and filament FDY production, a strategy of going long on PF and short on PTA is recommended [71]. - **MEG**: In a range - bound market, attention should be paid to the pressure at 4600 [71]. - **Rubber**: Oscillating weakly [12]. - **Synthetic rubber**: Narrowly oscillating in the short - term [12]. - **Asphalt**: Following the rise of crude oil, with a steady reduction in factory inventory [12]. - **LLDPE**: Oscillating in the short - term, and there is still pressure in the later period [12]. - **PP**: The price increased slightly, and the trading volume was average [12]. - **Caustic soda**: Mainly oscillating weakly, attention should be paid to export demand [12]. - **Pulp**: Oscillating weakly [12]. - **Log**: Weakly oscillating [12]. - **Methanol**: Oscillating under pressure [12]. - **Urea**: Oscillating, and the intraday trend depends on spot trading [12]. - **Styrene**: Close short positions [12]. - **Soda ash**: There is little change in the spot market [12]. - **LPG**: Following the rise of crude oil, but the 04 contract is still weak [14]. - **PVC**: Oscillating at a low level [14]. - **Fuel oil**: Rose at night, and may turn significantly stronger in the short - term [14]. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: Rebounded following crude oil, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the external market is temporarily stable [14]. 3.4 Agricultural Products - **Soybean meal**: The report is neutral, there are still concerns about tariffs, and the US soybeans closed down, so the Dalian soybean meal may follow the decline [14][66]. - **Soybean No. 1**: Fluctuating with the surrounding market and adjusting and oscillating [14][66]. - **Corn**: Oscillating [14][68]. - **Sugar**: Attention should be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the internal - external price difference [14][69]. - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to the impact of macro - events [14][70]. - **Egg**: The weakness of the spot market exceeded expectations [14][72]. - **Live pig**: The expectation of secondary inventory accumulation is gradually forming [14][73]. - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the supply [14][74]. 3.5 Crude Oil - Trump is using sanctions and tariff threats to potentially hit the oil revenues of Iran, Russia, and Venezuela. The secondary tariff threats may have a large impact, and the US unilateral policy may subvert the G7 price - cap policy. On March 31st, crude oil futures closed higher [73][74].

Core Viewpoint - The global manufacturing PMI index for February 2025 shows a slight recovery to 50.6, indicating a phase of resilience in the global economy, but it remains fragile, characterized by "China's stability, emerging markets warming, Europe bottoming out, the US declining, and Canada and Mexico contracting" [1][2]. Regional Analysis - **Asia**: Economic performance remains mixed, with China's manufacturing PMI rising to 50.2 due to accelerated resumption of work and production. Japan and South Korea's PMIs are near the threshold, at 49.0 and 49.9 respectively, while Southeast Asia shows marginal improvement [3]. - **Europe**: Most countries show marginal improvements in manufacturing PMI but remain in contraction territory. Germany's PMI is at 46.5, slightly above previous values, indicating a need for cautious optimism as the Eurozone's GDP growth remains around zero [3]. - **Americas**: Canada and Mexico's manufacturing PMIs have declined, with Canada's PMI dropping significantly from 51.6 to 47.8, indicating a return to contraction [3]. US Manufacturing Insights - The US manufacturing PMI for February is recorded at 50.3, down from 50.9, failing to maintain the earlier signs of resilience. Key indicators show a decline in supply and demand, rising inflation, and a cooling labor market [4]. - The inventory cycle is still in a bottoming phase, and trade issues may continue to impact US foreign trade performance in the second quarter. The expectation is for the US manufacturing PMI to fluctuate around 50 in the first half of the year [4]. Export Trends - South Korea's export growth improved from -10.2% to 1%, influenced by "export rush" and temporary recovery in US manufacturing demand. China's export growth increased by 4.0 percentage points to 10.7% in December 2024 [5]. - Geopolitical factors and the pace of overseas tariff increases will be crucial variables affecting China's export growth in 2025, with potential short-term benefits from "export rush" before tariffs take effect [5].

Financial Support for Private Enterprises - The meeting held by the People's Bank of China and other departments emphasizes the importance of financial support for the high-quality development of private enterprises, aiming to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and enhance credit supply to private and small enterprises [2][3] - Financial institutions are encouraged to treat all types of enterprises equally and to increase credit investments in private and small enterprises, while also improving the credit enhancement system for small and medium-sized enterprises [2][3] Digital Currency Development - The People's Bank of China has called for a steady advancement in the research and application of digital currency, which is expected to drive the digital transformation of finance, enhance regulatory efficiency, and promote financial inclusion [4][6] - This initiative is seen as a significant step towards optimizing the existing financial system and laying the groundwork for future financial development [4][6] Quality Development of Pension Services - Eight departments, including the National Development and Reform Commission, have issued measures to promote the high-quality development of inclusive pension services, focusing on enhancing home-based care capabilities and integrating AI technologies in pension institutions [5][6] - The measures aim to improve service quality and expand the range of services available to the elderly population [5][6] Hong Kong Economic Outlook - The Financial Secretary of Hong Kong has projected an economic growth of 2% to 3% for the year 2025, with a focus on developing core industries such as finance, innovation technology, and tourism [6] - A reinforced fiscal consolidation plan has been proposed to control public spending while minimizing negative impacts on public services and social welfare [6] Mergers and Acquisitions in Capital Markets - The China Securities Regulatory Commission plans to promote mergers and acquisitions among listed companies, focusing on high-quality leading companies to enhance market efficiency and support national strategies [7] - This policy aims to facilitate resource allocation towards quality enterprises, thereby fostering industrial upgrades and technological innovation [7] Manufacturing Sector Performance - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for February stands at 50.2%, indicating a significant recovery in manufacturing activity, although small and medium-sized enterprises show weaker performance [8] - The resilience of the manufacturing sector suggests that the pressure on the government to implement stimulus measures may ease during the upcoming Two Sessions [8]

1）国际新闻 首席点评: 经济景气度明显回升 2月生产指数和新订单指数分别为52.5%和51.1%，比上月上升2.7和1.9个百分点，均升至扩张区间，制 造业产需明显改善。有色金属冶炼及压延加工、通用设备、电气机械器材等行业两个指数均位于54.0% 及以上，相关行业产需释放较快。中央政治局会议讨论政府工作报告，强调要坚持稳中求进工作总基 调，完整准确全面贯彻新发展理念，加快构建新发展格局，扎实推动高质量发展，实施更加积极有为的 宏观政策，扩大国内需求，推动科技创新和产业创新融合发展，稳住楼市股市，保持社会和谐稳定，高 质量完成"十四五"规划目标任务。海外美国将于3月4日对加拿大和墨西哥加征关税，美乌领导人会晤不 欢而散，美乌矿产协议未能签署，贵金属、原油、农产品普遍下跌。 重点品种： 黄金、原油、豆粕 黄金 ：上周金银呈现较大幅度回调。黄金的实物挤兑没有进一步发酵。特朗普关税政策不断加码，令 市场不安延续。俄乌问题谈判快速推进，地缘风险呈降温态势，但上周泽连斯基在白宫的争吵令谈判蒙 上不确定性。货币政策方面美联储表示预计今年会有两次降息但整体为 "谨慎降息状态，短期影响较 小。此前，黄金直接性的上涨行情发酵来 ...

Manufacturing PMI Overview - In February, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 50.2%, up from 49.1% in January, indicating a return to expansion[2]. - The production index for February was 52.5%, an increase from 49.8% in January, reflecting an expansion in manufacturing activity post-Spring Festival[2]. Enterprise Size Analysis - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 52.5%, up from 49.9%, showing significant expansion, while medium-sized enterprises decreased slightly to 49.2% from 49.5%, and small enterprises fell to 46.3% from 46.5%[2][5]. - The recovery in manufacturing sentiment was uneven across different enterprise sizes, with large firms showing stronger growth compared to medium and small firms[4]. Demand and Orders - The new orders index increased to 51.1% in February from 49.2% in January, indicating a rise in market demand[2][5]. - New export orders index improved to 48.6% from 46.4%, while the import index rose to 49.5% from 48.1%, suggesting a potential increase in export activities[2][5]. Price Indices - The main raw materials purchase price index was 50.8%, up from 49.5%, while the factory price index was 48.5%, up from 47.4%, indicating a mild recovery in price levels[3][6]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to decline by approximately 2% year-on-year in February[3]. Inventory and Employment - The raw materials inventory index fell to 47.0% from 47.7%, indicating cautiousness in future production expansion, while the finished goods inventory index rose to 48.3% from 46.5%[3][6]. - The manufacturing employment index increased slightly to 48.6% from 48.1%, suggesting a modest improvement in employment conditions within the sector[6]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was stable at 50.4%, with the construction sector showing a significant increase to 52.7% from 49.3%[7][8]. - The service sector's business activity index slightly decreased to 50.0% from 50.3%, reflecting a minor contraction in activities post-Spring Festival[7][8].

上证50指数-0.06% 中证100指数-0.17% 沪深300指数+0.04% a500指数+0.23% 中证500指数+1.09% 中证1000指数+1.62% 中证2000指数+1.84% 微盘股指数+2.11% 你把a股想象成一个人，那上面这些指数基本上就是从头到脚的分布，现在行情明显头轻脚重，你越往下买就越容易赚钱，这个情况不是一天两天，从10 月16日开始持续半个月了。 今天a股成交2.21万亿，量能又回到了2万亿上方平台，中位数上涨0.91%，这就算小鸡腿回血。 市场风格依然严重倾向于小盘股，涨幅榜前100里没有一家流通市值500亿以上的公司，90%以上都是几十亿盘子的小票。其实看几大指数的涨跌表现也能 很好的反应市场偏好： 上证50指数-0.06% 510050 中证100指数-0.17% 159627 沪深300指数+0.04% 510330 a500指数+0.23% 159338 中证500指数+1.09% 512500 中证1000指数+1.62% 159845 中证2000指数+1.84% 563300 微盘股指数+2.11% 最底下的几个指数有的已经突破10月8日的高点，而最上面的指 ...