Group 1 - The U.S. stock market saw a collective rise in the past week, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing by 3% to 41,317.43 points, the Nasdaq Composite rising by 3.42% to 17,977.73 points, and the S&P 500 gaining 2.92% to 5,686.67 points [1] - The April non-farm payroll report released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed an increase of 177,000 jobs, exceeding market expectations of 133,000, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.2% [3] - Approximately two-thirds of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings that are 7% higher than expected, contributing to market support [1][2] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the recent concerns over Trump's tariff plans may have subsided, and a summer rebound in the market is anticipated after the seasonal weakness in May and June [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to signal potential interest rate cuts, with forecasts indicating up to four cuts starting in September, depending on economic data trends [4][5] - The first quarter of 2023 saw a contraction in the U.S. economy, largely driven by significant fluctuations in imports, likely in response to tariffs [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that President Trump has authorized a 100% tariff on all movies produced abroad entering the U.S., citing national security concerns and the decline of the American film industry as reasons for this decision [2][4][5] - Trump claims that the U.S. film industry is rapidly declining due to foreign incentives attracting American filmmakers and studios, which he views as a coordinated effort that poses a national security threat [2][5] - In an interview, Trump downplays the potential long-term negative impacts of his tariff policy on the U.S. economy, stating that the country is in a transitional phase and he does not foresee an economic recession during his term [3][4][6] Group 2 - The article discusses the recent policy change that imposes tariffs on small packages valued under $800, which significantly affects American consumers who frequently shop online, leading to increased prices and slower logistics [7][8] - This policy is expected to result in an annual loss of up to $47 billion for businesses and consumers, disproportionately impacting low-income groups [8] - The implementation of this tariff policy is likely to create significant pressure on the U.S. customs system, potentially leading to delays in clearance times and requiring additional budget allocations for system expansion and staffing [8]

美国知名投资人巴菲特宣布年底卸任公司首席执行官 上周六，在伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司股东大会上，94岁的巴菲特在问答环节尾声宣布，计划今年年底辞去 公司首席执行官一职。巴菲特还严厉批评特朗普政府的关税和贸易保护主义政策，强调"贸易不应该是 武器"。另外，他认为美国政府不负责任的财政政策可能会削弱美元的价值，并表示不会投资大幅贬值 的货币。当天，公司公布2025年第一季度财报，经营利润同比大幅下跌，由于其业务涵盖运输、能源、 零售等多个领域，公司警告称关税或进一步影响利润。 【#上周国际金价跌超1%##本周美联储将公布利率决议#】首先来看美国资本市场的情况。上周，随着 美国政府频频释放与部分贸易伙伴推进谈判的信号，叠加美国4月份非农就业数据好于预期，暂时缓解 市场对经济衰退的担忧。美国三大股指连续第二周收高，其中道指上涨3%，标普500指数上涨2.92%， 纳指上涨3.42%。截至上周收盘，标普500指数和纳指已抹平今年4月2日特朗普宣布所谓"对等关税"以来 的跌幅。 上周国际油价下跌 原油市场方面，上周"欧佩克+ "将协商产量政策的会议提前举行，商讨6月增产计划，叠加美国原油库 存增加，引发市场对原油供应过剩的担忧 ...

张尧浠：美联储年内降息预4次、本周金价偏看止跌反弹 黄金市场上周：国际黄金延续前周收取的倒垂见顶形态，进一步走低回撤，但未稳健跌破5周均线支撑，且10周均线向上延伸，暗示下方空间有限，后市 仍有再度走强的预期。 具体走势上，金价自周初开于3324.92美元/盎司，先行录得当周高点3352.81美元，虽反弹遇阻，但仍有一定的买盘情绪，使其走势维持在扩展线支撑和近 期的震荡区间之内，不过周四时段，空头力量加大，向下走低，打破震荡，一度跌至日图中轨下方，录得当周低点3202.00美元，最后有所触底回升，周 五维持反弹动力，最终收于3239.30美元，周振幅150.81美元，收跌85.62美元，跌幅2.57%。 展望本周周一(5月5日)：国际黄金开盘窄幅震荡走盘于中轨及短期均线下方，空头占据一定优势，但预计下方空间有限，关注30日均线支撑，以及2024年 4月12日高点2431美元到10月31日高点2790美元的向上链接的趋势线支撑，可看止跌反弹。 影响上，周初由于震荡区间的阻力与支撑，而震荡波动，一方面特朗普对于关税态度的表达反复变脸令其市场捉摸不定，涨跌有限，同时受到中东局势的 避险支撑，以及在小非农ADP爆冷+ ...

Group 1 - President Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for not lowering interest rates, suggesting it stems from "personal animosity" but stated he would not seek to remove Powell before his term ends in 2026 [1] - Trump downplayed concerns about a potential economic recession, indicating that the U.S. is in a transitional phase and he is not worried about economic contraction during his term, although he does not rule out the possibility [1] - Recent criticisms from Trump reflect a strong desire from the government for interest rate cuts, while Powell emphasized the need to ensure tariffs do not lead to sustained inflation before considering rate reductions [1] Group 2 - Michael Gibson, the director of the Federal Reserve's regulatory department, is set to leave by the end of the year after over thirty years at the Fed, overseeing the supervision of Wall Street lending institutions and implementing "stress tests" [2] - The nomination of Michelle Bowman as the new vice chair for supervision is pending Senate confirmation, and her approach to bank regulation is expected to be more lenient than Gibson's, potentially ushering in a period of relaxed oversight for Wall Street [2]

Group 1 - The article highlights President Trump's criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for not lowering interest rates, suggesting it stems from "personal animosity" [1] - Trump downplays concerns about a potential economic recession, stating that the U.S. is in a transitional phase and he is not worried about economic contraction during his term, although he does not rule out the possibility [1] - Recent public criticism from Trump reflects the government's strong desire for interest rate cuts, while Powell emphasizes the need to ensure tariffs do not lead to sustained inflation before considering rate reductions [1] Group 2 - Michael Gibson, the director of the Federal Reserve's regulatory department, is set to leave by the end of the year after over thirty years of service, which may signal a shift in regulatory approach [2] - Gibson's departure coincides with the Senate confirmation process for Michelle Bowman, a nominee for the vice chair of supervision, who is expected to adopt a more lenient stance on bank regulation, potentially ushering in a period of relaxed oversight for Wall Street [2]

Group 1 - A-shares experienced a volatile consolidation pattern over three trading days, with an average daily turnover slightly exceeding 1 trillion yuan, while the Shanghai Composite Index faced a slight decline due to adjustments in bank stocks [1] - The market sentiment was dominated by uncertainties regarding tariffs, leading to a wait-and-see approach from both bulls and bears [1] - Positive signals regarding US-China tariff negotiations emerged, with the US indicating a willingness to negotiate, and China responding accordingly [1] Group 2 - The US announced a cancellation of tariff exemptions for small-value imports from China, which could have a negative impact on market sentiment [1] - The US GDP for the first quarter showed a year-on-year decline of 0.3%, which was worse than the expected decline of 0.1%, raising concerns about a potential recession [2] - Market expectations regarding the US economy's recession risk have increased, with a probability of approximately 57% for a recession by 2025, significantly higher than the 18% probability noted at the time of Trump's inauguration [2] Group 3 - Following the May Day holiday, A-shares are expected to continue fluctuating around tariff-related news, with uncertainty in finding a clear direction [3] - If tariff news improves, A-shares may gain some upward momentum, but the impact is likely to be limited due to the ongoing nature of tariff issues [3] - Investors are advised to maintain a watchful stance and consider adjusting their portfolio structure, with a focus on export-related stocks if tariff issues significantly ease [3]

Group 1 - The global stock market experienced a remarkable "V-shaped" rebound in April, with the S&P 500 rising for nine consecutive days, marking the longest streak since November 2004 [1] - Bank of America Chief Investment Officer Hartnett noted that this trend indicates investor expectations for Trump to shift towards a "three lows" policy: lowering tariffs, interest rates, and taxes [1] - Concerns about a U.S. economic recession have eased, as the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield has decreased by 70 basis points since Trump took office, oil prices have fallen by 20%, and the dollar has depreciated by 9%, contributing to looser financial conditions [1] Group 2 - The second quarter is not expected to see a recession, as Hartnett pointed out that as long as employment data does not collapse, market sentiment can remain relatively stable [2] - Key indicators such as the global financial sector ETF (IXG) breaking above $105 suggest that a recession in the second quarter is unlikely [2] - Oil prices remain the only asset indicating a potential recession or slowdown, having dropped 56% since the Russia-Ukraine conflict began and 17% since April 2 [2] Group 3 - Hartnett recommends "going long" in international markets, as concerns about a global recession fade, oil prices are expected to reverse significantly, benefiting oil-importing countries in Asia and Europe [3] - Additionally, he suggests investing in bonds and gold, forming a "BIG" investment portfolio [3]

当地时间5月22日周五，美国前总统特朗普在接受NBC采访时再次强调，美国经济正处于"过渡期"，并坚称 长期来看一切都会"恢复正常"。他试图淡化外界对经济衰退的担忧，声称美国经济最终会"表现极佳"。然 而，就在同一天，华尔街分析师却发出警告，认为特朗普的"对等关税"政策可能导致美国经济陷入衰退。 最新民调显示，特朗普的经济政策支持率已下降5个百分点，仅42%的受访者认可其表现。随着通胀压力加 大、消费信心走弱，美国民众对经济前景的担忧正在加剧。经济学家普遍认为，如果特朗普不调整关税策 略，美国经济可能在今年晚些时候面临更严峻挑战。 特朗普坚持认为美国经济只是"短暂调整"，但越来越多的证据表明，他的关税政策正在加剧市场动荡。华 尔街与普通消费者的担忧形成鲜明对比，而美联储的货币政策走向更成为关键变量。未来几个月，美国经 济究竟是如特朗普所言的"过渡期"，还是滑向衰退深渊，全球市场都在密切关注。 尽管经济数据不佳，美股却在周五强势反弹，标普500指数甚至创下2004年以来最长连涨纪录。中国概念股 表现尤为亮眼，纳斯达克中国金龙指数大涨3.5%。然而，苹果股价却逆势暴跌3.7%，因CEO库克警告称关 税将使公司损失9 ...

| 期限品种 | 收益率% | 基点 | | --- | --- | --- | | US 1-MO | 4.311 | +0.004 A | | US 2-MO | 4.309 | +0.016 ▲ | | US 3-MO | 4.32 | +0.019 A | | US 4-MO | 4.337 | +0.027 A | | US 6-MO | 4.254 | +0.047 A | | US 1-YR | 4.013 | +0.08 A | | US 2-YR | 3.824 | +0.123 ▲ | | US 3-YR | 3.809 | +0.121 A | | US 5-YR | 3.917 | +0.104 A | | US 7-YR | 4.104 | +0.09 A | | US 10-YR | 4.308 | +0.077 ▲ | | US 20-YR | 4.806 | +0.054 A | | US 30-YR | 4.789 | +0.052 A | 新华财经北京5月3日电美国劳工统计局周五（2日）公布的美国4月非农就业报告好于预期，缓解了对经济衰退的担忧，投资者抛售美债转向股市，2年 ...