Core Viewpoint - The current interest rates are significantly above neutral levels, and there are indications that a rapid rate cut of 150 basis points may be considered, but market expectations remain unaffected as evidenced by the rising two-year Treasury yields [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Commentary - Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman, closely associated with Trump, suggests a swift reduction in interest rates, yet the two-year Treasury yield has rebounded to over 3.60% [1] - Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, argues that such statements are unrealistic and fail to influence market expectations effectively [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - The continued increase in two-year Treasury yields indicates that a lack of reasonable basis for the proposed rate cuts may not effectively lower long-term borrowing costs [1] - Ozkardeskaya emphasizes that the Federal Reserve cannot lower rates arbitrarily, likening it to distributing candy at a party [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market, particularly the technology sector, is experiencing a decline despite previous expectations of interest rate cuts, which may have already been priced in by the market [1] Market Performance - As of September 23, the Hang Seng Index fell by 0.97%, the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 2.20%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index decreased by 1.17% [1] - The half-day trading volume was HKD 165.23 billion [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (159101) saw a decline of 1.83%, with key components like Bilibili-W and Hua Hong falling by 4.45% and 4.08% respectively [1] Interest Rate Outlook - The market had anticipated the recent interest rate cut, but the release of the dot plot indicates that officials expect two more rate cuts by 2025 [1] - The ongoing expectation of rate cuts is seen as a significant driver for the Hong Kong stock market and the tech sector [1] Impact on Technology Companies - Hong Kong tech companies rely heavily on overseas financing, and the interest rate cut will reduce the cost of USD-denominated debt, improving cash flow [1] - Companies are expected to increase R&D investments, enhancing long-term competitiveness, while reduced financial expenses may boost profit margins [1] - A weaker USD during the rate cut cycle will enhance the value of overseas revenues when converted to HKD/RMB, benefiting profit margins, especially in sectors like internet exports and hardware [1] Relevant ETFs - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (159101) covers the entire technology industry chain [1] - The Hang Seng Internet ETF (513330) focuses on leading internet companies [1]

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) is currently trading around 0.65 against the US dollar, with a slight decline of 0.10% from the previous close of 0.6595 [1] - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is close to achieving its inflation target of 2%-3% and the economy is nearing full employment, according to Assistant Governor Hunt [1] - The RBA is expected to maintain the cash rate at 3.6% during its upcoming meeting on September 29-30, with economists predicting a rate cut in November and another early next year, bringing the terminal rate to 3.1% [1] Group 2 - If buying pressure returns, the AUD/USD may test the recent high of 0.6707, with a potential breakthrough pointing towards last year's high of 0.6942 [2] - Temporary support levels for the AUD/USD are identified at the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) of 0.6535 and the 100-day SMA of 0.6510; a drop below these levels could refocus attention on the August low of 0.6414 [2] - The relative strength index (RSI) is around 52, indicating weakened bullish momentum, while the average directional index (ADX) is around 20, suggesting a gradually strengthening overall trend [2]

【机构资金入场抄底，黄金强势突破阻力】机构资金入场抄底，推动现货黄金强势连破阻力位，站上 3725。降息后宏观利好大爆发，投行果断上调金银目标价位。 期权交割在即，10月黄金面临季节性抛 售压力，亚洲需求初步降温。市场关注其对黄金短线操作和中期前景的影响，周内宏观交易指南待解 锁。 本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

【改写版】 本周二，美联储迎来了一场载入史册的议息会议——这场被华尔街称为三十年来最火药味十足的决策会 议，从开场就弥漫着不同寻常的政治硝烟。 会议前夕，一场惊心动魄的人事变动为这场会议埋下伏笔。白宫首席经济学家斯蒂芬·米兰在参议院以 48:47的刀锋式票数险胜，火速完成宣誓就职程序，填补了前任理事库格勒8月突然离职留下的空缺。令 人玩味的是，库格勒的任期原本应持续至明年，其以赴乔治城大学任教为由的仓促离职引发诸多猜测 ——该校官网至今未见其授课信息，这个反常举动让金融圈议论纷纷。 米兰的任命堪称近年来最具党派色彩的美联储人事变动。共和党议员集体投下赞成票，而民主党方面几 乎全员反对，这种泾渭分明的投票格局实属罕见。与此同时，另一位身处漩涡的理事丽莎·库克在会议 前夕惊险保住职位，上诉法院驳回了白宫的解职动议，这场理事保卫战更凸显当前美联储面临的前所未 有的政治压力。 回望1951年确立央行独立性的《美联储-财政部协议》以来，即便在尼克松时代高达两位数的通胀危机 中，美联储也未曾遭遇如此赤裸裸的政治干预。如今连向来德高望重的主席鲍威尔都难逃政治攻讦，被 公开斥为愚蠢决策者，美联储引以为傲的独立性光环正在急速褪 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of major currency pairs against the US dollar, highlighting fluctuations in exchange rates and upcoming economic indicators that may influence market movements. Currency Analysis - **Australian Dollar (AUD/USD)**: The AUD/USD is attempting to break through the range of 0.6400 to 0.6600, with resistance at the 2025 high of 0.6679. A further breakthrough could target the peak of 0.6687 from November 2024, with a psychological level at 0.7000. The first support level is at the August low of 0.6414, just above the 200-day simple moving average of 0.6392 and the June low of 0.6372. Momentum indicators show bullish signals, with the RSI above 69 indicating potential for further upside, while the ADX around 19 suggests the trend is gaining momentum [4]. - **Euro (EUR/USD)**: The EUR/USD has broken through the resistance range of 1.1780-1.1790, which is seen as a key signal for bullish trading. The daily chart's oscillators continue to show positive momentum and are far from overbought territory, indicating that the path of least resistance for the EUR/USD is upward. Any subsequent pullbacks may be viewed as buying opportunities, with limited expected retracement [4]. - **British Pound (GBP/USD)**: The GBP/USD has fallen below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of its upward trend since the August low, around 1.3500, confirming a negative outlook for the pound against the dollar. The daily chart's oscillators have begun to show negative trends, suggesting that the minimum resistance path for prices remains downward. Prices may test the 50% Fibonacci retracement level near 1.3435-1.3430, and further selling could lead to a drop below the 1.3400 level, potentially reaching the monthly low of 1.3335-1.3330 [5]. Economic Indicators - Key economic data to be released includes the preliminary manufacturing PMI for France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK, as well as the US second-quarter current account and various PMI readings from the US. These indicators are crucial for assessing economic health and may impact currency valuations [7].

Group 1: Industry Investment Ratings - Unilateral: Aluminum: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Neutral; Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Long position in SHFE aluminum futures [9] Group 2: Core Views - After the interest rate cut, non - ferrous commodities generally corrected. For electrolytic aluminum, the supply is stable, domestic consumption is recovering, and exports are good. The social inventory is at a relatively low level and is showing signs of reaching a peak. For alumina, the supply surplus is difficult to resolve, and the current price has cost support. For aluminum alloy, downstream consumption is recovering, but the supply is still excessive, and the spread repair with aluminum prices may face obstacles [6][7][8] Group 3: Summary of Key Data Aluminum Spot - On September 22, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 20,750 yuan/ton, a change of - 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium of East China aluminum was - 20 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum was 20,710 yuan/ton, and the spot premium changed by 20 yuan/ton to - 60 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 20,700 yuan/ton, a change of - 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium changed by 5 yuan/ton to - 65 yuan/ton [1] Aluminum Futures - On September 22, 2025, the main contract of SHFE aluminum opened at 20,755 yuan/ton, closed at 20,745 yuan/ton, a change of - 75 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 20,830 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 20,735 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 118,717 lots, and the position was 236,067 lots [2] Aluminum Inventory - As of September 22, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 638,000 tons, unchanged from the previous period; the warrant inventory was 70,761 tons, a change of - 1,198 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 513,900 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] Alumina Spot Price - On September 22, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,970 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,940 yuan/ton, in Henan was 3,020 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,170 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,175 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 323 US dollars/ton [2] Alumina Futures - On September 22, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,950 yuan/ton, closed at 2,934 yuan/ton, a change of - 2 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, a change of - 0.07%. The highest price was 2,961 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,906 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 311,040 lots, and the position was 317,523 lots [2] Aluminum Alloy Price - On September 22, 2025, the procurement price of Baotai civil aluminum scrap was 15,900 yuan/ton, and the procurement price of mechanical aluminum scrap was 16,100 yuan/ton, a change of - 100 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,300 yuan/ton, a change of - 100 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [3] Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 71,400 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 60,800 tons [4] Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 20,341 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 159 yuan/ton [5]

期 货 研 究 2025 年 09 月 23 日 铝：小幅调整 氧化铝：承压下行 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 期货研究 【综合快讯】 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20745 | -50 | -275 | 30 | 720 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20715 | l | ー | l | l | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2655 | -21 | -50 | 31 | 172 | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 118717 | 11654 | -14512 | -24832 | 20728 | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 236067 | -9800 | 53626 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of the US stock market, highlighting record highs for major indices and significant investments in technology, particularly by Nvidia in OpenAI, alongside rising gold prices [3][5][9][14]. Group 1: US Stock Market Performance - The US stock market has reached new highs, with the Dow Jones increasing by 0.14%, the S&P 500 by 0.44%, and the Nasdaq by 0.7% [5]. - Major technology stocks showed mixed results, with Apple rising over 4% and Nvidia nearly 4%, while Facebook and Amazon fell over 1% [10]. - Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve may implement two 25 basis point rate cuts by the end of the year, with investors closely monitoring macroeconomic data [8]. Group 2: Nvidia and OpenAI Investment - Nvidia plans to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI, establishing a strategic partnership while retaining no control over the company [9][12]. - This investment reflects Nvidia's commitment to advancing AI technologies and its collaboration with OpenAI to deploy significant computational resources [12]. Group 3: Gold Price Trends - Gold prices have surged, with spot gold rising approximately 1.67% to $3747.00 per ounce, reaching a historical high of $3748.84 [14]. - COMEX gold futures increased by 2.07%, reaching $3782.40 per ounce, indicating strong market demand [15]. - Analysts suggest that the expectation of further rate cuts will continue to support rising gold prices, with silver also breaking resistance levels [18].

Market Performance - US stock indices reached new highs, with the Dow Jones up 0.14%, S&P 500 up 0.44%, and Nasdaq up 0.7% [4][5] - Nvidia plans to invest $100 billion in OpenAI, indicating strong confidence in AI technology [8][11] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve officials suggest that current interest rates are "very restrictive," with an appropriate level around 2% to 2.5%, indicating potential for future rate cuts [6] - Market expectations indicate two 25 basis point rate cuts by the end of the year, with investors closely monitoring macroeconomic data [6][7] Gold Market Trends - Gold prices surged approximately 1.67%, reaching $3,747.00 per ounce, with futures up 2.07% at $3,782.40 per ounce [15][16] - The Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index rose 2.60%, marking a new closing high [17] - Analysts suggest that strong technical indicators and expectations of rate cuts will further support gold prices [19]