Core Insights - The article discusses the recent trends in China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), highlighting a decrease in CPI and a narrowing decline in PPI, indicating potential economic recovery and price stabilization [1][10]. CPI Analysis - In September, the national CPI decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, with urban areas down 0.2% and rural areas down 0.5% [4][6]. - Food prices fell by 4.4%, while non-food prices increased by 0.7%, contributing to the overall CPI decline [4][7]. - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.0%, marking the first return to this level in 19 months and indicating a continuous expansion for five consecutive months [7][9]. - The month-on-month CPI increased by 0.1%, with urban prices stable and rural prices rising by 0.2% [8][10]. PPI Analysis - The PPI for September showed a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, but the rate of decline narrowed by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [10][12]. - The industrial producer purchase price index decreased by 3.1% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1% [10][12]. - The decline in PPI is attributed to a low comparison base from the previous year and the positive effects of macroeconomic policies [12][13]. Sector-Specific Insights - Certain industries, such as coal processing and photovoltaic equipment manufacturing, experienced a reduction in price decline, contributing to the overall narrowing of PPI [13]. - The modernization of the industrial system and the release of consumer potential have led to price increases in sectors like aircraft manufacturing and electronic materials [13]. - The article anticipates that the PPI decline will first widen and then narrow in 2025, influenced by ongoing market competition improvements [14].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China announced a reverse repurchase operation of 600 billion yuan to maintain liquidity in the banking system, with a term of six months [1] - In September, China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to August [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 1.0% year-on-year in September, marking the fifth consecutive month of increase and the first return to 1% in nearly 19 months [1] Group 2 - In the first eight months of the year, China's manufacturing sector benefited from tax reductions and refunds amounting to nearly 1.3 trillion yuan [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the pressure on the household sector due to declining housing prices, despite improvements in government and corporate balance sheets supported by debt reduction policies and related industry support [1][2][3] - The September CPI showed a year-on-year decline of 0.3%, with food prices being a significant factor, as they dropped by 4.4%, impacting the CPI by approximately 0.83 percentage points [2][4] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the first return to above 1% growth in 19 months, indicating a potential shift in consumer price trends [2][3] Group 2 - The article discusses the contrasting trends in food and gold prices, with food prices experiencing negative growth since July, while gold prices surged, with gold jewelry and platinum jewelry prices rising by 42.1% and 33.6% respectively in September [4][5] - The report from Nomura China indicates that the CPI remains negative, but the decline has slightly narrowed, driven by rising gold prices, while the service sector continues to be a drag on overall consumption [5][6] - To stimulate market demand, experts suggest enhancing stock market performance and improving social security levels to boost consumer confidence and increase household income [7][8]

Economic Indicators - In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, a slight improvement from the previous month's decline of 0.4% [1] - The average CPI for January to September showed a decrease of 0.1% compared to the same period last year [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the first time in 19 months that it returned to above 1% [1] Food Prices - Food prices fell by 4.4% year-on-year in September, contributing approximately 0.83 percentage points to the CPI decline [1] - Cumulative food price change for the first nine months was -1.8%, while non-food items saw a slight increase of 0.2% [2] - Significant declines in specific food items included pork (-17.0%), fresh vegetables (-13.7%), eggs (-13.5%), and fresh fruits (-4.2%) in September [2] Gold Prices - In contrast, gold prices surged, with gold jewelry and platinum jewelry prices rising by 42.1% and 33.6% year-on-year, respectively [3] - International gold prices increased from approximately $3,500 per ounce at the beginning of September to nearly $3,800 per ounce by the end of the month [3] - Gold investment demand remained strong, with sales of gold bars and coins experiencing a 44% year-on-year increase in the second quarter [3][4] Market Demand and Economic Policy - The low CPI indicates a persistent issue of oversupply in the macroeconomic landscape, necessitating increased counter-cyclical policy measures [2][5] - The government aims for a CPI growth target of around 2% for the year, the lowest since 2004 [5] - To stimulate market demand, experts suggest enhancing stock market performance and improving social security levels to boost consumer confidence [5][6]

事件 ：10月15日，国家统计局公布9月通胀数据，CPI同比-0.3%、前值-0.4%、市场预期-0.1%、环比 0.1%；PPI同比-2.3%、前值-2.9%、市场预期-2.4%、环比0%。 核心观点：大宗涨价提振上游PPI，黄金与家电价格走高对中下游CPI也有较大拉动。 线索一：9月PPI改善，主因大宗价格延续上涨，但主要是受反内卷影响较小的铜价大幅上涨。 9月PPI环 比0%。从影响因素看，国内大宗商品中，9月以来铜价再度出现回涨（环比2.1%），对应有色采选、有 色压延业CPI环比分别2.5%、1.2%，拉动PPI环比0.1%，为主要贡献项。煤价也继续上涨，对应煤价拉动 PPI环比0.1%。但中下游产能利用率偏低导致中下游价格无法充分反映上游涨价传导，测算该因素拖累 PPI环比-0.1%。 线索二：整体CPI偏低主因食品价格拖累，核心CPI涨幅仍在扩大，结构上黄金价格的拉动作用持续增 强。 9月CPI环比0.1%，不及2017年来均值（0.4%）；其中核心CPI同比上行至1.1%，结构上源于核心商 品CPI（同比+0.5pct至1.4%）。其中金价对核心商品CPI提振较强，金饰品和铂金饰品价格同比分别 ...

CPI Analysis - In September 2025, the CPI year-on-year decreased by 0.3%, a slight improvement from the previous month's -0.4% and better than the market expectation of -0.1%[2] - The core CPI rose to 1.0% year-on-year, up from 0.9% in the previous month, driven by increases in prices of gold and durable goods[3] - Food prices continued to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.4%, primarily due to falling pork prices, which dropped by 0.7% month-on-month[4] PPI Analysis - The PPI year-on-year decline narrowed to 2.3% in September from 2.9% in August, slightly better than the market expectation of -2.4%[2] - The PPI remained stable month-on-month at 0% for two consecutive months, indicating a stabilization after previous declines[6] - Key sectors such as coal, steel, and photovoltaic industries showed price stabilization, contributing to the reduced PPI decline[6] Future Outlook - CPI is expected to turn positive in the fourth quarter as the impact of last year's high base fades and food price pressures diminish[8] - The PPI is anticipated to continue its upward trend, but the improvement may be limited due to weakening demand and ongoing international oil price declines[8] - The seasonal demand for pork may support prices, potentially leading to a price turning point by mid-next year if breeding stock continues to decrease[8]

Inflation Data Summary - In September, China's CPI decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, slightly worse than the expected decrease of 0.2% and an improvement from the previous month's decline of 0.4%[2] - The month-on-month CPI increased by 0.1%, below the expected 0.2% and the previous month's 0%[2] - The PPI fell by 2.3% year-on-year, matching expectations but improving from a decline of 2.9% in the previous month[2] - The month-on-month PPI remained flat at 0 for the second consecutive month[5] Core CPI and Structural Changes - Core CPI rose by 1% year-on-year, marking the sixth consecutive month of increase and the highest level since February 2024[4] - Significant increases were observed in the living goods (+2.2%) and other goods (+9.9%) categories[4] - The food CPI continued to decline, with a year-on-year drop of 4.4%, the worst performance since January 2024, driven by falling prices in pork (-17.0%), fresh vegetables (-13.7%), and eggs (-11.9%)[4] PPI Insights - The PPI's year-on-year improvement was influenced by a low base from the previous year, with certain sectors like non-ferrous metals showing price increases[5] - The PPI for black metal smelting improved from -4.0% to -0.6% year-on-year, indicating a narrowing negative gap[5] - However, downstream manufacturing prices remain weak, with the PPI for computers and electronics unchanged at -0.2% month-on-month[5] Future Outlook - The data indicates a growing structural divergence in prices, with core CPI rising while food prices and downstream PPI remain weak, suggesting insufficient terminal demand[8] - Upcoming policies aimed at addressing agricultural product issues may help stabilize prices moving forward[8]

Core Insights - The consumer price index (CPI) in September showed a year-on-year decline of 0.3% and a month-on-month increase of 0.1% [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the first return to a 1% increase in nearly 19 months [1] - The decline in year-on-year CPI is attributed mainly to base effects, while the month-on-month increase is driven by rising international gold prices and the implementation of consumer stimulus policies [1] - There is a significant possibility of a positive CPI in October, according to analysts [1]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In September, CPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline narrowing from 0.4% to 0.3%[1] - Food prices rose by 0.7% month-on-month, while year-on-year they decreased by 4.4%, contributing approximately 0.83 percentage points to the CPI decline[1] - Core CPI remained flat month-on-month and increased by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth[1] Group 2: PPI Analysis - In September, PPI remained flat month-on-month and the year-on-year decline narrowed to -2.3% from -2.9%[2] - Production demand improved, supporting price increases in some energy and raw material sectors[2] - The coal processing price rose by 3.8% month-on-month, while the prices for coal mining and washing increased by 2.5%[2] Group 3: Market Outlook - The improvement in CPI may continue into October due to tailwind factors, with a focus on the progress of pig production capacity reduction[2] - The real estate market remains weak, with property sales area and sales value down 4.7% and 7.3% year-on-year, respectively[2] - M1 growth has been rising, which is expected to support PPI improvement, although the overall PPI is unlikely to turn positive this year[2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic fundamental situation shows that China's CPI in September declined slightly compared to the previous value, the decline of PPI prices has narrowed for two consecutive months, and the core CPI continues to recover. In terms of trade, the year - on - year growth rate of imports in September rebounded significantly, and exports to major economies such as ASEAN and the EU continued to grow. The manufacturing PMI in September rebounded to 49.8, with a slight improvement in manufacturing sentiment, while the non - manufacturing PMI dropped to the critical point, and overall production and business activities remained in expansion. Overseas, Fed Chairman Powell hinted that the balance - sheet reduction is nearing an end and is worried about the continuous weakening of the US labor market, and the market's expectation of the Fed's continued interest - rate cut in October remains firm. The probability of the new round of tariff hikes actually taking effect is low. It is expected that Treasury bond futures will maintain a wide - range oscillation. Strategically, it is recommended to adopt a band - trading approach and closely monitor policy trends and market sentiment changes [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Futures Closing Prices and Volumes**: The closing prices of T, TF, and TL main contracts decreased by 0.06%, 0.03%, and 0.14% respectively, while the TS main contract remained unchanged. The trading volumes of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts decreased by 36447, 26353, 7649, and 32987 respectively [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: Some spreads such as TL2512 - 2603, TF2512 - 2603 decreased, while T2512 - 2603, TS2512 - 2603 increased [2]. - **Futures Positions**: The positions of T, TS, and TL main contracts decreased, while the TF main contract increased. The net short positions of T and TF decreased, while those of TS and TL increased [2]. 3.2 CTD and Bond Quotes - **CTD Net Prices**: Some CTD net prices increased, such as 220019.IB, while others decreased, such as 250018.IB [2]. - **Active Bond Yields**: The yields of 1 - year active bonds increased by 2.50bp, while those of 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year bonds decreased by 0.10bp, 0.75bp, 1.25bp, and 0.85bp respectively [2]. 3.3 Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: The silver - pledged overnight rate decreased by 0.20bp, the Shibor overnight rate increased by 0.10bp, the silver - pledged 7 - day rate increased by 1.36bp, and the Shibor 7 - day rate decreased by 0.90bp [2]. - **LPR Rates**: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry News - **Domestic News**: China's National Bureau of Statistics announced that in September, CPI decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 2.3% year - on - year. The central bank conducted a 6000 - billion - yuan 6 - month outright reverse - repurchase operation on October 15, with a net investment of 4000 billion yuan in October [2]. - **Overseas News**: Fed Chairman Powell hinted that the Fed may stop shrinking its balance sheet in the coming months and is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points later this month [2]. 3.5 Key Events to Watch - On October 16 at 02:00, the Fed will release the Beige Book of Economic Conditions. At 20:30 on the same day, the US September retail sales month - on - month rate will be announced [3].