巴克莱经济学家Jack Meaning和Iaroslav Shelepko在一份报告中说，定于5月21日公布的英国4月份通胀数 据预计将较上月加速，部分原因是国民生活工资和雇主国民保险缴款的增加。经济学家们说，4月份的 年度总体通胀率预计将升至3.3%，而年度核心通胀率可能会升至3.5%。然而，考虑到多次年度重置和 指数化价格变动，以及一些一次性价格变动，4月份CPI的不确定性很高。 ...

意大利4月CPI同比终值 1.9%，预期 2%，初值 2%。 ...

Report Information - Report Date: May 15, 2025 [2] - Report Issuer: Shenyin Wanguo Futures Co., Ltd. [2] Industry Investment Ratings The provided content does not mention any industry investment ratings. Core Views - For stock index futures, it is advisable to take a predominantly bullish stance, while for stock index options, a long straddle strategy can be used to capture the trending market after the direction is determined [2][8] - The price of Treasury bond futures has declined, and short - term fluctuations may increase [9] - The natural rubber market is expected to be in a weak and volatile state [10] - The short - term outlook for methanol is bullish [12] - Glass and soda ash are in a cycle of inventory digestion, and attention should be paid to their supply - demand digestion process and the impact of the overall commodity market on the real estate chain [13] - After a phased rebound, polyolefins may enter a high - level oscillatory consolidation phase in the future [14] - The fundamentals of coking coal continue to deteriorate, and for coke, there are expectations of a price cut [15] - Gold has entered a correction phase, and silver lacks upward momentum [17] - Copper and zinc prices may fluctuate widely in the short term [18][19] - Shanghai aluminum is expected to be in a slightly bullish and oscillatory state, while nickel may follow the non - ferrous metal sector and show a slightly bullish and oscillatory trend [20][22] - The overall price of edible oils has declined, while protein meals are in a slightly bullish and oscillatory state [23][24] - Corn and corn starch may enter an oscillatory phase in the short term, and cotton is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [25][27] - The freight rate of the European container shipping line may increase, and the 08 contract is expected to remain strong [28] Summary by Directory 1. Main News Concerns of the Day International News - Oil prices dropped on Thursday due to expectations of a possible US - Iran nuclear agreement and an unexpected increase in US crude inventories last week [5] Domestic News - The CSRC will launch a new round of capital market reforms and introduce a package of policies to deepen the reforms of the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market [5] Industry News - In early May 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises increased compared to the previous period, with different trends in various regions [6] 2. Closing Comments on Major Varieties Financial Futures - Stock index futures declined, but short - term positive factors are present, and the valuation of major domestic indices is low [2][8] - Treasury bond futures showed mixed performance, and short - term fluctuations may intensify due to various factors such as the progress of Sino - US talks and economic data [9] Energy and Chemical - Rubber prices declined, and the market is expected to be in a weak and oscillatory state due to factors such as the progress of the harvest season and inventory [10] - Crude oil prices dropped, and attention should be paid to the impact of low oil prices on US sanctions against Venezuela and Iran [2][11] - Methanol prices decreased slightly, but the short - term outlook is bullish [12] - Glass and soda ash futures are in a consolidation phase, and attention should be paid to their supply - demand digestion and the impact of the overall market [13] - Polyolefins are in a consolidation phase, and after a phased rebound, they may enter a high - level oscillatory consolidation phase [14] Black Metals - Coking coal and coke prices are affected by macro - favorable factors, but the fundamentals of coking coal are deteriorating, and coke prices may face a cut [15] Metals - Gold and silver prices declined, and they are in a correction phase [17] - Copper, zinc, and other metal prices may fluctuate widely in the short term, and attention should be paid to factors such as US tariff negotiations and exchange rates [18][19] - Shanghai aluminum prices rose slightly, and it is expected to be in a slightly bullish and oscillatory state [20] - Nickel prices declined slightly, but it may follow the non - ferrous metal sector and show a slightly bullish and oscillatory trend [22] Agricultural Products - Edible oil prices declined due to factors such as the extension of the US clean fuel tax credit policy and the MPOB report [23] - Protein meal prices are in a slightly bullish and oscillatory state due to factors such as the USDA report and Sino - US talks [24] - Corn and corn starch prices may enter an oscillatory phase in the short term, and attention should be paid to factors such as imports and demand [25] - Cotton prices are expected to be slightly bullish in the short term, and attention should be paid to factors such as new orders [27] Shipping Index - The European container shipping line showed a strong performance, and the 08 contract is expected to remain strong due to factors such as the easing of Sino - US tariff frictions [28] 3. Daily Views on Varieties The report provides a summary of the views on various varieties, including bullish, bearish, and neutral stances [29] 4. Daily Price Changes of Major Varieties The report presents the latest closing prices, price fluctuations, trading volumes, open interests, and other data of various varieties [30]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that identifying the performance turning point is crucial for the market to move out of the bottom-seeking phase, with market bottoms typically leading performance turning points by 1-2 quarters [2] - The report highlights the importance of combining leading indicators with coincident indicators for better economic bottom assessments, as relying solely on coincident indicators may lead to delayed confirmations [2] - The key to breaking out of the bottom-seeking phase lies in the sustainability of M1 recovery, with household medium and long-term loans being a more critical indicator [2] Economic Indicators - The April manufacturing PMI significantly dropped to 49%, indicating a contraction for the first time since February, down from 50.5% [4] - M1 showed a slight year-on-year decline, while M2 increased, and the total social financing stock rose year-on-year, indicating a rebound in excess liquidity [7] - The total social financing increment in April was 1.16 trillion yuan, which is 12.243 billion yuan more than the same period last year, with a slight recovery in new government bonds but a negative year-on-year change in new RMB loans [9] Leading Indicators - The report notes that M2 leads M1, which in turn leads the stock market bottom, with M2 showing a year-on-year increase of 8% in April, up from 7% [7] - The social financing pulse increased to 26.16% in April, up from 25.41%, with new government bonds showing a slight recovery while new RMB loans turned negative [9] - The report indicates that the decline in household medium and long-term loans is closely related to the real estate sales cycle, with April showing a year-on-year decrease of 12.97% for household medium and long-term loans [12] Monetary Policy and Market Sentiment - The report discusses that the narrowing of the decline in household and corporate loans is essential for market recovery, with the April average DR007 rate marginally dropping to 1.73% [15] - The central bank's recent decision to lower the reserve requirement ratio and policy interest rates is aimed at stabilizing the market [15] - The report mentions that the recovery in social financing and M2, along with improved export performance, reflects a resilient Chinese economy despite the macroeconomic downturn [18]

点击上图 ▲立即加入 美国4月CPI创4年来最低水平 5月13日，美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示，美国4月CPI同比增长2.3%，预期2.4%，前值2.4%，为自2021年2月以来最低水平。4月CPI环比增 长0.2%，预期0.3%，前值-0.4%。核心CPI同比增长2.8%，为自2021年春季通胀爆发以来的最低速度。 目前，市场对美联储今年年内降息多次的预期已显著降温。芝商所"美联储观察工具"最新显示，美联储6月维持利率不变的概率超过80%，7月降 息的概率已降至不足四成。美国总统特朗普在社交媒体上表示，美联储必须像欧洲那样降息。鲍威尔的"太晚了"是怎么回事？美联储的策略对美 国不公平，美国已经准备好蓬勃发展。顺其自然吧，这将是件美好的事情！（综合华尔街见闻） ｜点评｜ 美国4月CPI继续降温，并不意味着美国政府近期的关税政策对美国物价没有产生扰动。4月国际原油价格大幅下跌，美国前期禽流感 对畜牧业的影响逐渐消散，鸡蛋价格快速回落。美国居民对未来通胀水平回升产生担忧，对服务业的消费意愿回落，机票价格走低，共同平抑 了CPI涨幅。然而，家具、家电、玩具等进口比重较高的产品价格已出现小幅回升迹象。 美国生产商们还 ...

Economic Overview - In the first quarter of 2025, China's GDP reached 31.8758 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.2% [3] - The primary industry added value was 1.1713 trillion yuan, growing by 3.5% year-on-year; the secondary industry added value was 11.1903 trillion yuan, increasing by 5.9%; and the tertiary industry added value was 19.5142 trillion yuan, with a growth of 5.3% [3] Financial Data - As of April 2025, the M2 money supply grew by 8% year-on-year, reflecting a 1 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating effective monetary policy and financial support for the economy [4] - The social financing scale, M2, and RMB loan growth rates were 8.7%, 8%, and 7.2% respectively, all exceeding nominal GDP growth, demonstrating strong financial support for the real economy [4] Price Indices - In April 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% month-on-month but fell by 0.1% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year [4] - The core CPI showed stable growth, and some industrial prices continued to improve year-on-year, indicating a gradual recovery in market demand [4] Industrial Profit - In the first quarter of 2025, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size turned from a 3.3% decline in the previous year to a 0.8% increase, driven by policy effects and significant contributions from equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors [5]

本周CPI不温不火，黄金3200大关反复拉锯！多头反弹无力，美盘空头能否奋力一搏？立即观看超V推 荐官Jason的分析，马上进入直播间>>> 相关链接 ...

智通财经5月14日电，西班牙4月CPI同比增长2.2%，预期2.2%；4月CPI环比增长0.6%，预期0.6%。 ...

Inflation Data - April CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, slightly better than the expected -0.2% and the previous value of -0.1%[11] - April PPI fell by 2.7% year-on-year, also better than the expected -2.8% and the previous value of -2.5%[11] Economic Stability - The year-on-year CPI remained stable compared to March, with a two-year average growth rate slightly improving to 0.1%[12] - The month-on-month CPI increased by 0.1%, recovering from a 0.4% decline in March, outperforming the historical average of -0.1%[12] Core CPI and Demand - Core CPI remained low, indicating weak terminal demand and sluggish consumption, necessitating accelerated domestic demand policies[7] - Food prices showed a seasonal increase, with a 0.2% month-on-month rise, driven by supply factors[12] Policy Response - The Central Political Bureau proposed more proactive macro policies to address domestic demand shortages and external shocks[8] - A package of financial policies was launched in early May, including interest rate cuts and structural tools to stimulate domestic demand[8] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include unexpected central bank adjustments, inflation exceeding expectations, and escalating trade tensions[17] - Ongoing monitoring of policy implementation, US-China tariff negotiations, and fiscal measures is essential for future economic stability[8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing trend of cooling inflation in the U.S., highlighting the April CPI data and its implications for future economic conditions and monetary policy [1][10]. Inflation Trends - April CPI year-on-year growth slightly decreased to 2.3%, the lowest since February 2021, while core CPI remained stable at 2.8% [1]. - Energy prices saw a year-on-year decline of 3.7%, influenced by global trade uncertainties and a high base from the previous year [3]. - Core services inflation decreased to 3.6%, with housing and transportation services continuing to show downward trends [5]. - Core goods inflation turned positive at 0.1%, primarily due to a lower base from the previous year, with some categories like furniture and appliances showing increases [6]. Energy Sector Insights - The year-on-year growth rate for energy in the CPI recorded a decline of 3.7%, with gasoline prices dropping by 11.8% [3]. - Brent crude oil prices fell to an average of $67.9 per barrel in April, further decreasing to $62.7 per barrel in May, indicating a potential for sustained low energy prices [3]. Service Sector Analysis - Core services inflation pressure is expected to continue easing, with stable housing inflation and a slight decrease in owner-equivalent rent growth to 4.3% [5]. - Transportation service prices also showed a year-on-year decline, contributing to the overall easing of service inflation [5]. Consumer Expectations - Consumer inflation expectations rose, with the one-year expectation increasing to 6.5%, the highest since November 2023, driven by concerns over tariff policies [8]. Monetary Policy Implications - Following the inflation data release, U.S. stock indices rose, and bond yields fell, suggesting market reactions to the inflation trends [10]. - The ongoing tariff policies and their delayed impact on inflation may lead to a postponement of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, despite the cooling inflation [10].