截至5月6日，30年国债ETF博时近1年净值上涨16.79%，指数债券型基金排名3/378，居于前0.79%。从收益能力看，截至2025年5月6日，30年国债ETF博时自 成立以来，最高单月回报为5.35%，最长连涨月数为4个月，最长连涨涨幅为10.58%，涨跌月数比为9/4，上涨月份平均收益率为2.20%，月盈利百分比为 69.23%，月盈利概率为72.91%，历史持有1年盈利概率为100.00%。截至2025年5月6日，30年国债ETF博时近6个月超越基准年化收益为0.58%。 截至2025年4月30日，30年国债ETF博时近1年夏普比率为1.13。 回撤方面，截至2025年5月6日，30年国债ETF博时成立以来最大回撤6.89%，相对基准回撤1.28%。 费率方面，30年国债ETF博时管理费率为0.15%，托管费率为0.05%。 5月7日上午9时，国务院新闻办公室如期举行新闻发布会，请中国人民银行、金融监管总局、证监会负责人介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情 况，并答记者问。央行行长在会上宣布，降准0.5个百分点，并降低政策利率0.1个百分点。 截至2025年5月7日 10:11，30年国债E ...

Group 1: Impact Mechanisms on Gold Prices - The decline in real interest rates due to interest rate cuts enhances the attractiveness of gold as a zero-yield asset, typically leading to price increases [1] - The release of long-term liquidity, estimated at 1 trillion yuan, may partially flow into the commodity market, including gold, with historical data showing strong gold performance during periods of monetary easing [2] - A depreciation of the RMB due to interest rate cuts could lead to a passive increase in gold prices denominated in RMB, as seen during the RMB depreciation in 2020 [3] - Easing monetary policy may stimulate economic demand and, combined with supply chain pressures, could elevate inflation, increasing the demand for gold as an inflation hedge [4] Group 2: Historical Case Studies - In 2015, following five interest rate cuts by the People's Bank of China, the price of Au9999 on the Shanghai Gold Exchange rose by 6.3%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 14.3%, indicating a shift of risk-averse funds towards gold [5] - In 2020, amid a global easing trend with the Federal Reserve cutting rates to zero and implementing unlimited quantitative easing, international gold prices surged by 25%, reaching a historical high [6] Group 3: Current Market Specificities - The divergence in monetary policies between the US and China, with the Fed maintaining high rates while China cuts rates, may exacerbate RMB depreciation pressure, potentially widening domestic gold premiums [7] - Geopolitical risks, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East, are creating a resonance between risk aversion and monetary easing, further supporting gold demand [8] - The recent rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions are favorable for gold, but external policies and geopolitical risks should be monitored [9]

| 持稳市场稳预期"有关情况，并答记者问。 【市场逻辑】 | | --- | | 4 月份官方制造业采购经理指数（PMI）录得 49.0%，落入荣枯线之下，4 月新订单 | | 指数为 49.2%，前值 51.8%，4 月 PMI 新出口订单指数为 44.7，出口需求收缩明显， | | 并带动整个新订单指数回落。最新消息何副总理将赴瑞士与美财政部长会晤，但目 | | 前距离中美达成实质协议的时间尚无法预期。4 月 25 日中央政治局会议指出适时降 | | 准降息，保持流动性充裕，加力支持实体经济。持续巩固房地产市场稳定态势。持 | | 续稳定和活跃资本市场。要不断完善稳就业稳经济的政策工具箱，既定政策早出台 | | 早见效，根据形势变化及时推出增量储备政策，加强超常规逆周期调节，全力巩固 | | 经济发展和社会稳定的基本面。4 月 28 日央行副行长表示将创设新的结构性货币政 | | 策工具，围绕稳就业稳增长重点领域精准加力。周二国债期货以横向波动为主，国 | | 债期货短线或继续震荡。今天上午国新办举行的有央行官员参加的新闻发布会值得 | | 关注，如有利多消息出台，则会推动债市上涨。 | | 【交易策略】 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market showed active trading on May 7, with the banking sector experiencing a strong rebound, as evidenced by the China Securities Banking Index rising over 0.6% [1] - Notable individual bank stocks included Xi'an Bank, which rose over 2%, and several others such as Everbright Bank, Qilu Bank, Zijin Bank, Zhengzhou Bank, and Industrial Bank, all increasing by over 1% [1] - The Tianhong Bank ETF (515290) tracked the China Securities Banking Index and saw a rise of over 0.5%, with a trading volume exceeding 10 million yuan, indicating strong investor interest [1] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.5 percentage point reserve requirement ratio cut, injecting approximately 1 trillion yuan into the market, along with a 0.1 percentage point reduction in policy interest rates [1] - The central bank also optimized two monetary policy tools to support the capital market, merging the quotas for securities fund insurance company swaps and stock repurchase loans to a total of 800 billion yuan [1] - Recent reports from Xiangcai Securities and China Galaxy Securities suggest that structural financial policies and macroeconomic support will stabilize credit growth in banking, with expectations of improved bank performance despite short-term pressure on interest margins [2][2]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the market [2] - The last reserve requirement ratio cut occurred on September 27, 2024, when the PBOC also lowered the ratio by 0.5 percentage points, resulting in an average reserve requirement ratio of about 6.6% [2] - The recent cut aligns with market expectations, as discussions of "timely cuts in reserve requirement and interest rates" were mentioned in the Central Political Bureau meeting on April 25 [3] Group 2 - In addition to the reserve requirement cut, the PBOC also lowered the policy interest rate by 0.1 percentage points, with the 7-day reverse repurchase rate decreasing from 1.5% to 1.4%, which is expected to lead to a similar decline in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [4] - The PBOC increased the quota for re-lending for technological innovation and transformation by 300 billion yuan, raising it from 500 billion yuan to 800 billion yuan [4] - A new 500 billion yuan re-lending facility for service consumption and elderly care was established to encourage banks to increase credit support in these areas [4] Group 3 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) emphasized its commitment to stabilizing the market and enhancing responses to external risks, supporting the Central Huijin Investment Ltd. in its role akin to a "stabilization fund" [5] - Following the announcement of these policies, the A-share market showed significant activity, with major indices opening higher and sectors such as finance and real estate leading the gains [5]

Group 1 - The A-share market opened significantly higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.17%, filling the gap from April 7 [1] - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.5 percentage point reserve requirement ratio cut, injecting approximately 1 trillion yuan into the market, along with a 0.1 percentage point reduction in policy interest rates [1] - An additional 300 billion yuan in re-lending for technological innovation and transformation was announced, increasing the total from 500 billion yuan to 800 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The humanoid robot industry has been rapidly developing, with the robot sector significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index since October 2024, becoming a key market theme [2] - The demand for humanoid robots in consumer applications is expected to be substantial, currently in the thematic investment phase from 0 to 1 [2] - The technology iteration and commercialization of humanoid robots are accelerating, with potential to replicate the market trends seen in the new energy vehicle sector from 2020 to 2021 [2]

5月7日早盘，或受重磅利好刺激，港股三大指数集体高开，其中恒指高开2.24%，恒生科技指数高开 2.72%。开盘后，恒生科技指数ETF（513180）跟随指数上扬，持仓股中，腾讯音乐、同程旅行、阿里 健康、百度集团、携程集团、美团等涨幅居前。 消息面上，5月7日，中国人民银行行长潘功胜在国新办举行的新闻发布会上宣布，降准0.5个百分点， 向市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元，并降低政策利率0.1个百分点。此外，降低个人住房公积金贷款利率 0.25个百分点，5年期以上首套房利率由2.85%降至2.6%，其他期限的利率同步调整。国家金融监管总局 局长李云泽表示，近期将加快出台与房地产发展新模式适配的系列融资制度。 东吴证券认为，从总量宽松逻辑看，"降准"和"降息"落地的着眼点是稳定经济增长，"稳增长、稳预 期、稳信心"的诉求前置需要货币政策加大宽松力度，提振内需、稳定预期和信心，"适时降准降息"不 仅可以稳定内需、而且也有利于实现外部均衡，同时当前中国的收益率曲线已经较为平坦，择机"降 息"有利于修正10年期和30年期等长端利率隐含着经济增长预期，同时在暂停国债买卖的情况下，通过 调降短端利率，打开曲线陡峭化的空间。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is implementing a series of financial policies aimed at stabilizing the market and expectations, including interest rate cuts and liquidity provisions [1][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Adjustments - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has lowered the reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions by 0.5%, which is expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [4]. - The structural monetary policy interest rate has been reduced by 0.25 percentage points, and the policy rate has been adjusted from 1.5% to 1.4% [4]. - The personal housing provident fund interest rate has been decreased by 0.25 percentage points, with the 5-year and above first home loan rate dropping from 2.85% to 2.6% [4]. Group 2: Capital Market Support - The PBOC has optimized two monetary policy tools to support the capital market, merging the quotas for securities fund insurance company swaps (5 billion yuan) and stock repurchase loans (3 billion yuan) into a total quota of 8 billion yuan [4]. - The PBOC will also lower the reserve requirement ratio for car rental companies [5]. Group 3: Regulatory and Policy Initiatives - The National Financial Regulatory Administration has introduced eight new policies aimed at increasing financing options for real estate and expanding the scope for long-term investments by insurance funds [5]. - The policies include adjustments to regulatory rules, lowering investment risk factors for insurance companies in stock investments, and developing a comprehensive financing policy for small and private enterprises [5]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is focused on maintaining market stability and enhancing responses to external risks, supporting the Central Huijin Investment Company in its stabilizing role [5].

| 公布日期 | 调整幅度(%) | 次日沪指涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | | 2024/9/27 | -0.5 | 8.06 | | 2024/1/24 | -0.5 | 3.03 | | 2023/9/14 | -0.25 | -0.28 | | 2023/3/17 | -0.25 | -0.48 | | 2022/11/25 | -0.25 | -0.75 | | 2022/4/15 | -0.25 | -0.49 | | 2021/12/6 | -0.5 | 0.16 | | 2021 /7 / 9 | -0.5 | 0.67 | | 2020/1/1 | -0.5 | 1.15 | | 2019/9/6 | -0.5 | 0.84 | | 2019/1/4 | -1 | 0.72 | | 2018/10/7 | -1 | -3.72 | | 2018/6/24 | -0.5 | -1.05 | | 2018/4/17 | -1 | 0.8 | | 2016/2/29 | -0.5 | 1.68 | 国务院新闻办公室5月7日上午举行新闻发布会，请中国人民银行行长潘功胜、国家 ...

央行、金融监管总局、证监会三部委定于5月7日9点举行联合发布会， 此次会议是否会推出影响市场走向的重磅新政，成为各界热议焦点。 上一次三部委集体亮相引发市场波动。 2024年9月24日 ，央行、金融监管总局、证监会三部委联合发布预期内的货币政策，包括存量房贷利率调整 等，市场高开后回落。随后发布超预期的政策，为证券基金和保险业提供互换便利工具，以及对上市公司及其控股股东的增持回购给予再贷款支持 等，市场开始大幅上涨， 上证指数收涨4.15% // 降准 降息越来越近？ // 5 月 6 日 晚间中国新闻网预告： 国务院新闻办公室将于 5月7日（星期三）上午9时举行新闻发布会 ，请 中国人民银行、国家金融监督管理总局、中国证券监督管 理委员会负责人介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况 ，并答记者问。 这次新闻发布会 是否会公布降准降息相关信息，广受市场关注 。 央行副行长邹澜4月28日在国新办新闻发布会上表示： 将根据国内外经济形势和金融市场运行情况， 适时降准降息，保持流动性充裕 ，发挥好货币政策工具箱总量和结构双重功能，创 设新的结构性货币政策工具，围绕稳就业、稳增长的重点领域精准发力，做好金融支 ...