Group 1 - The article highlights that during the past 10 years, the commodity market has often shown significant movements during the National Day holiday, with probabilities of price increases for various commodities post-holiday: 70% for crude oil, 50% for gold, 60% for silver, and 70% for stock index futures [1] - It notes that in 2025, just before the National Day, a new round of interest rate cuts in the US will have started, leading to improved global liquidity and heightened market sentiment, which may amplify the volatility of core commodities [1] - The article emphasizes the appeal of the futures market due to its T+0 trading, margin system, and the ability to participate in both upward and downward movements, making it a suitable choice for capturing opportunities or hedging risks during the National Day holiday [1] Group 2 - The article promotes a futures simulation competition organized by Daily Economic News and COFCO Futures, encouraging participants to practice trading strategies in a risk-free environment with a simulated capital of 1 million [3] - It mentions that the competition features a dual evaluation mechanism with weekly and monthly contests, offering multiple rewards for participants [3] - The article provides instructions for registration and highlights the benefits of participating, including exclusive market insights for post-holiday trends [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Corn: The price is expected to explore the planting cost range, and there are opportunities for low - long positions. Maintain an interval trading idea in the medium - and long - term [4][5][6]. - Pig: The downward space of pig prices is limited, and short positions should enter the profit - taking range. Near - month contracts operate based on supply - demand logic, while far - month contracts focus on the expected difference of sow de - capacity [10][11][12]. - Egg: The spot price has fallen as expected, and the short - selling idea remains unchanged. Before large - scale concentrated chicken culling, maintain the short - selling strategy [17][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Corn - **Important Information** - On the 26th, the north - south port prices were stable in the north and strong in the south, and the purchase prices of deep - processing enterprises continued to decline in the northeast and rose in the north [4]. - As of the 26th, the number of corn futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the wheat - corn price difference was positive and continued to expand [4]. - On the 26th, the corn auction sales and procurement transactions of CGC were held. The planned sales volume was 371 tons and all were sold, while the planned procurement volume was 11,800 tons with a transaction rate of 30% [5]. - As of the 39th week of 2025, the grain inventory in Guangzhou Port increased month - on - month and year - on - year, with a significant increase in corn inventory [5]. - **Market Logic** - Short - term: The opening price of new grain in the northeast has dropped from a high level. The lower support of the futures price is the port price range of the new season's corn planting cost, and the upper pressure is the wheat - corn price difference [5]. - Medium - term: Conduct band trading around the new season's corn drive, and maintain a wide - range trading idea [5]. - Long - term: Maintain the pricing logic of import substitution + planting cost, and focus on policy orientation [5]. - **Trading Strategy** - Maintain the interval trading idea in the medium - and long - term. Pay attention to the low - long opportunities of the band. The support levels of the 2511 and 2601 contracts are 2100 - 2130 and 2100 - 2120 respectively, and long positions can be held [6]. Pig - **Important Information** - On the 27th, the national average price of live pigs decreased slightly, and it is expected to be stable with a slight increase on the 28th [10]. - In July 2025, the number of fertile sows was 40.42 million, and the number of sows culled in large - scale pig farms increased month - on - month [10]. - The price difference between fat and standard pigs narrowed, the average weekly slaughter weight decreased, and the number of futures warehouse receipts decreased [14]. - The central reserve frozen pork will be rotated out on the 28th [14]. - **Market Logic** - Short - term: The temporary supply - demand imbalance suppresses the pig price [11]. - Medium - term: The expected increase in pig supply in the second half of the year restricts the rise of pig prices [11]. - Long - term: The number of fertile sows is still higher than the normal level, and the pig production capacity will continue to be realized throughout the year [11]. - **Trading Strategy** - Near - month contracts operate based on supply - demand logic, and short positions should enter the profit - taking range and be gradually closed. Far - month contracts focus on the expected difference of sow de - capacity [12]. - The support levels of the 2511, 2601, 2603, 2605, and 2607 contracts are 12300 - 12500, 12800 - 13000, 12500, 12900 - 13000, and 13500 - 13600 respectively [12]. Egg - **Important Information** - On the 26th, the egg prices were weakly stable, and the downstream sales slowed down with an increase in inventory [17]. - The price of culled hens decreased, and the weekly culling age increased [17]. - In August, the number of laying hens in stock increased month - on - month and year - on - year, and the theoretical estimated value in September decreased month - on - month [17]. - **Market Logic** - Medium - and short - term: As the festival approaches, the stocking intensity weakens, the downstream sales slow down, and the inventory rises, putting pressure on egg prices [17]. - Long - term: Focus on the scale of hen culling. The supply pressure may be realized again in the fourth quarter [17]. - **Trading Strategy** - Before large - scale concentrated chicken culling, maintain the short - selling idea, and hold previous short positions. The pressure levels of the 2511, 2512, 2601, and 2602 contracts are 3090 - 3100, 3200, 3370 - 3380, and 3120 - 3140 respectively. Breeding enterprises can also pay attention to the selling - hedging opportunities of the 2607 and 2608 contracts to lock in breeding profits [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market showed a pattern of opening high and closing low today, with weak intraday fluctuations. The pre - orders of upstream factories for the National Day holiday are not yet fully received, and the futures rebound lacks strength, putting pressure on the urea market price. The daily output of urea has rebounded to around 200,000 tons, and high production will continue to suppress prices. The demand is mainly for National Day orders, and the future demand concentration probability is low. The inventory in urea factories is increasing and is higher than the same period in previous years. Overall, the market is in a state of bottom - grinding with weak rebound and no fundamental support. Near the holiday, caution is needed regarding market fluctuations [1] Summary According to Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The urea market opened high and closed low today, with weak intraday fluctuations. Upstream factory pre - orders for the National Day are not full, futures rebound is weak, and prices are under pressure. The daily output of urea has rebounded to around 200,000 tons, and high production will continue to suppress prices. The demand is mainly for National Day orders, and the future demand concentration probability is low. The inventory in urea factories is increasing and is higher than the same period in previous years. The market is in a state of bottom - grinding with weak rebound and no fundamental support. Near the holiday, caution is needed regarding market fluctuations [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The main urea 2601 contract opened at 1,676 yuan/ton, opened high and closed low, with weak intraday fluctuations, and finally closed at 1,669 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.36%. The trading volume was 292,033 lots, a decrease of 9,861 lots compared to the previous day. On September 26, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 7,241, a decrease of 294 compared to the previous trading day [2] Spot - The pre - orders of upstream factories for the National Day are not yet fully received, and the futures rebound lacks strength, putting pressure on the urea market price. The ex - factory transaction price range of small - particle urea from factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly between 1,560 - 1,600 yuan/ton, with Hebei factories having higher quotes. High - quote factories are mainly fulfilling some export orders for port collection [3] Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot market quotation and the futures closing price both decreased today. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, with the basis of the January contract at - 59 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton [7] Supply Data - On September 26, 2025, the national daily output of urea was 204,300 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons compared to the previous day, and the operating rate was 86.32% [8]

据调研数据统计，国内红枣样本点库存继续缓慢下降，9月25日当周，36家样本点物理库存在9203吨，较上周 减少44吨，环比减少0.48%，同比增加84.80%，仍处于同期高位。 中辉期货表示，基于当下产量预期结合结转库存，后期新果上市后仍旧存在压力预期。短期，由于天气窗口 期的收缩，市场对质量问题的担忧逐步缓解，但11月下树前不排除炒作下的大涨大跌行情。策略上，波动较 大情况下盘面谨慎交易，建议关注行情炒作下的逢高沽空机会。 9月26日，国内期市主力合约涨跌互现。其中，红枣主力合约日内涨超2%，现报11240.00元/吨，创9月12日以 来新高。 ...

运筹帷幄 决胜千里 有人乐意"闲" ，有人享受"充电" 宝城期货 陈栋 秋意渐浓，梧桐叶落，又是一年国庆假期到来。城市渐渐安静下来，写字楼的灯一盏盏熄灭，人们收 拾行囊，奔赴山海。而期货交易者，这群在数字洪流中搏击的旅人，却在节日前夕，多了一份静默的守候。 交易所的假期安排早已贴出：10 月 1 日（星期三）至 10 月 8 日（星期三）休市，10 月 9 日（星期四） 起照常开市。9 月 30 日（星期二）晚上不进行夜盘交易。10 月 9 日（星期四）所有合约集合竞价时间为 上午 8:55 至 9:00。可以想见，9 月 30 日下午，随着分时线的止步，屏幕归于平静。有人长舒一口气，摘 下耳机，望着 K 线图嘴角微扬；有人默默关闭交易软件，泡上一杯浓茶，任茶烟袅袅，思绪却仍停留在那 根均线上。 假期，对期货交易者而言，从不是简单的"休息"二字可以概括的。它更像是一次周期性的撤离与回归， 一次在喧嚣与寂静之间的转换。节前的最后几个交易日，市场波动往往加大。交易所的保证金可能上调， 风险提示函也可能发布，仿佛在提醒大家：操作要更谨慎。 于是，有些期货交易者选择在假期前平仓。这不仅是为了规避长假期间国际市场的不确 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including spot prices, fundamental information, supply - demand dynamics, macro news, fund flows, etc. It shows the current situation and trends in the agricultural and energy futures markets, as well as the impact of international and domestic economic data on the market. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Spot Quotes - Closing prices and price changes of various futures such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, US crude oil, US soybeans, etc. are presented. For example, the closing price of Malaysian palm oil 12 (BMD) is 4453.00, with a previous - day decline of 1.37% and an overnight decline of 0.29%. [1] - Latest prices and price changes of various currencies are also given, like the US dollar index at 98.44 with a 0.61% increase. [1] 02 Spot Quotes (Continued) - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2601, DCE豆油 2601, and DCE豆粕 2601 in different regions are provided. For instance, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China is 9340, with a basis of 100 and no change in basis compared to the previous day. [2] - CNF quotes and CNF premium information for imported soybeans from different regions are included, such as the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans being 289 cents per bushel and the CNF quote being 477 dollars per ton. [2] 03 Important Fundamental Information - **产区天气** - The future weather outlook (September 30 - October 4) for US soybean - producing states shows that temperatures are generally high and precipitation varies. Some states have above - normal temperatures and above - median precipitation. [3][4] - The weather in the US Midwest will become dry over the weekend and next week, which will help with the harvest. However, scattered showers in the south and east may delay the harvest in the short term but improve drought conditions. [5] - **国际供需** - MPOA estimates that Malaysian palm oil production from September 1 - 20 decreased by 4.26% compared to the same period last month, with different changes in different regions. [7] - ITS and AmSpec data show that Malaysian palm oil exports from September 1 - 25 increased by 12.9% and 11.3% respectively compared to the same period last month. [7][8] - USDA reports show that US soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil export sales from September 1 - 18 met expectations, with different trends in current - year and next - year sales. [9][10] - Deral estimates that the soybean production in Paraná state in the 2025/26 season is 2194 tons, slightly lower than the August forecast. [10] - Argentina re - implemented export withholding taxes on grains, beef, and poultry after reaching a sales limit. After a three - day suspension of soybean export taxes, Argentina's soybean exports reached a seven - year high. [9][10] - India purchased 300,000 tons of soybean oil from Argentina in two days, with delivery from October to March next year. [11] - **国内供需** - On September 25, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 2300 tons, a 91% decrease compared to the previous day. [13] - On September 25, the trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 12.39 tons, a decrease of 12.49 tons compared to the previous day. The operating rate of oil mills was 59.79%, a 1.49% increase from the previous day. [13] - On September 25, the "农产品批发价格200指数" and the "菜篮子" product wholesale price index remained unchanged. The average price of pork decreased by 0.8% and the price of eggs decreased by 0.1% compared to the previous day. [14] 04 Macro News - **国际要闻** - CME's "美联储观察" shows that the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 14.5% and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 85.5%. [14] - US economic data such as initial jobless claims, durable goods orders, trade deficit, GDP, PCE, and personal consumption expenditure show different trends compared to expectations and previous values. [14][15] - The eurozone's M3 money supply annual growth rate in August was 2.9%, lower than expected. [15] - **国内要闻** - On September 25, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.1118, up 41 points (yuan depreciation). [16] - On September 25, the Chinese central bank conducted 4835 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 6000 billion yuan of MLF operations, with a net investment of 2965 billion yuan. [16] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce decided to launch a trade and investment barrier investigation against Mexico's relevant China - related restrictive measures on September 25. [16] 05 Fund Flows On September 25, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 5.357 billion yuan, including a net outflow of 630 million yuan from commodity futures and 5.276 billion yuan from stock index futures, while treasury bond futures had a net inflow of 564 million yuan. [19] 06 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant information provided.

| | 首说 | 1.美国公布与欧盟关税协议的正式文件。美国正式下调对欧盟汽车关税至15%,自2025年8月1日起生效。（金十数据） | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 【多空逻辑】 9月24日,沪線主力合约区间震荡,成交量为107755手（+54856）,特色量为8526手(+4733),伦保涨0.53%。观货市场成交 | | | | 一般。基差升水缩小。供给端,锲矿价格持平,上周级矿到浓量增加,港口库存照库;煤铁厂亏损幅度收窄,9月国内排产 | | | | 增加,印尼排产增加,镍铁去库;9月国内电解裂腓产增加,出口盈利扩大。需求瑞,三元群产减少;不锈钢厂排产增加; | | | 媒 | 合金与电镀需求稳定。库存来看,上期所减少,LNE增加,社会库存增加,保税区库存减少。综上,有色金属领铜出现反 | | | | 弹,铜存供应端批动,而铁基本面偏弱并有库存压力,预计银价反弹空间有限。 | | | | 【交易策略】逢高法空。 | | | | 【风险提示】美联储降息预期变化,印尼骚乱升级、菲律宾抗议活动升级 | | 投资集略 | | (观点评分:0) | | | | 【多空逻辑】 | | | | ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the unique experience of futures traders during the National Day holiday in China, highlighting the contrast between market activity and personal reflection [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Futures exchanges will be closed from October 1 to October 8, with trading resuming on October 9, indicating a structured break in trading activities [1] - The last trading days before the holiday often see increased market volatility, with potential margin adjustments and risk warnings issued by exchanges [1] Group 2: Trader Behavior - Some futures traders choose to close their positions before the holiday to avoid uncertainties in international markets, allowing for personal time and reflection [2] - Others remain engaged with the market during the holiday, monitoring global price movements and preparing for post-holiday trading [2] Group 3: Personal Reflection and Preparation - The holiday serves as a time for traders to recharge, review past trades, and learn new analytical tools, emphasizing the connection between market activities and real-world economic indicators [2] - Upon returning to the market, traders bring insights gained during the break, ready to face the challenges of trading with renewed understanding and support from family [3]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an agricultural product daily report dated September 25, 2024, focusing on cotton and cotton yarn [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 contract closed at 13,530 with a decrease of 25, trading volume of 246,394 hands (an increase of 67,330), and open interest of 525,141 (a decrease of 3,151) [3] - CY01 contract closed at 19,680 with a decrease of 30, trading volume of 656 hands (an increase of 229), and open interest of 771 (an increase of 305) [3] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B price was 15,083 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; CY IndexC32S price was 20,615 yuan, unchanged [3] - Cot A price was 78.15 cents/pound, up 0.30 cents; FCY IndexC33S price was 21,464 yuan, up 22 yuan [3] Price Spreads - Cotton 1 - 5 month spread was -5, down 20;棉纱 1 - 5 month spread was -85, down 19,795 [3] - CY01 - CF01 spread was 6,150, down 5; 1% tariff内外棉价差 was 1,222, up 21 [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market - In India, from September 18 - 24, 2025, the weekly rainfall in the main cotton - growing areas (93.6%) was 41.8mm, 8.7mm higher than normal and 15.7mm higher than last year [6] - In the US, the average temperature in the main cotton - growing areas (92.9% output share) was 79.07°F, 2.99°F higher than the same period last year; the average rainfall was 0.48 inches, 0.37 inches lower than last year [6] - This year, Xinjiang cotton output is expected to increase more than expected, while ginning mills' acquisition enthusiasm is average, and large - scale rush to buy is not expected. The expected acquisition price is around 6.2 - 6.3 yuan/kg [7] Trading Logic - As new cotton is gradually being acquired, the market focus is shifting to the new cotton opening price. With the large - scale listing of new cotton, there will be some selling hedging pressure on the futures market [7] - In September, the market's peak season has arrived, but the improvement in downstream demand is limited, so this year's peak season is expected to be average, and its boosting effect on the futures market is also limited [7] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: US cotton is expected to fluctuate mainly, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly weakly. It is recommended to trade opportunistically [8] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [10] - Options: Wait and see [10] Cotton Yarn Industry - Last night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated to 13,520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35. Cotton yarn futures declined significantly. The pure cotton yarn market generally remained unchanged, and the peak - season trading was not as good as previous years [9] - The cotton - fabric market lacks stamina, with small orders maintained and large orders scarce. There is price competition, and the price difference between different weavers for regular varieties is about 0.2 - 0.3 yuan/meter [12] Group 4: Options Option Data - On September 25, 2025, for CF601C14000.CZC, the closing price was 111.00, a decrease of 27.0%, with an implied volatility of 11.7% [14] - For CF601P13600.CZC, the closing price was 297.00, an increase of 20.7%, with an implied volatility of 10.6% [14] Volatility and Strategy - Today, the 120 - day HV of cotton was 10.4409, with a slight decrease in volatility. The implied volatility of relevant options varied [14] - The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton showed that both call and put trading volumes increased today. The option strategy is to wait and see [15][16]

Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core View - The short - term trend of coking coal and coke is expected to be range - bound. The spot price of coking coal is rising, and some coking enterprises have initiated the first price increase. After the replenishment is completed, the tight supply - demand situation may ease, and the upside space of the short - term futures market is limited [1] Summary by Catalog Market Review - The main contract of coking coal Jm2601 closed at 1224.5, up 1.24% compared with the opening of the day session; the main contract of coke J2601 closed at 1730.0, up 0.73%. At night, Jm2601 closed at 1223.5, down 0.08% from the day - session close, and J2601 closed at 1726.0, down 0.23% from the day - session close [1] Important Information - In mid - September, key steel enterprises produced 2073 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 207.3 million tons, a 0.6% decrease. Steel inventory was 1529 million tons, a 3.4% decrease [1] - On September 24, some coking enterprises proposed a price increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton, and mainstream coking enterprises planned to raise the coke price on the 25th, intensifying the game between coking and steel enterprises [1] - From the settlement on September 29, the daily price limit of iron ore futures contracts will be adjusted to 11%, and the trading margin to 13%; for coke futures contracts, the daily price limit will be 11% with the margin unchanged; for coking coal futures contracts, the daily price limit will be 11% and the margin will be 15% [1] - From the settlement on September 29, the trading margin for apple, glass, and soda ash futures contracts at Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange will be 12%, and the daily price limit 10%; for rapeseed meal, red dates, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, and caustic soda futures contracts, the margin will be 10% and the daily price limit 9% [1] - On September 24, the auction prices of coking coal in Linfen market increased significantly. Among 14 auction results, 13 increased and 1 had a 8% non - successful bid rate, with an average increase of about 92 yuan/ton [1] Market Logic - The spot price of coking coal is rising, and the cost of coking coal for coke has increased. Some coking enterprises have initiated the first price increase. The supply of coking coal is expected to shrink during the National Day holiday, but the supply - demand situation may improve after the replenishment [1] Trading Strategy - Coking coal and coke are expected to move in a range in the short term [1]