特朗普此前还在一次内阁会议上表示，美国财政部长贝森特并不想出任美联储主席一职。特朗普也没有表明目前他更倾向于谁，但他在2日晚上白 宫的一场活动上仅表示："我想这里已经有了一位潜在的美联储主席。我可以这么说吗？我可以告诉你，他是一位受人尊敬的人。"这意味着特朗 普心中已经有了一名人选。 现任美联储主席杰鲍威尔将于明年5月卸任。据路透社12月2日报道，美国总统特朗普当天表示，他将于明年初宣布接替鲍威尔担任美联储主席的 人选。特朗普在11月30日曾表示过已经知道将选择谁来领导这家全球最重要的央行，他此次的表态则进一步引发了舆论的猜测。 路透社在报道中猜测，这一人选可能是现年63岁的哈西特，他曾在特朗普第一任期内担任白宫经济顾问委员会主席，并在特朗普第二次上台后就 任白宫国家经济委员会主任。哈西特还经常在电视节目上露面并展示他对特朗普的"忠诚"，例如公开为特朗普的关税政策和降息政策辩护，这都 可能被"电视迷"特朗普看在眼里。 此外，哈西特的办公室就位于白宫，这意味着他可以非常轻松地接触到特朗普本人，并影响特朗普在贸易、经济、货币政策方面的观点。 由于市场普遍预计美联储将在12月的会议上再次宣布降息，因此经济界的另一个 ...

Luke Lu LSEG 信贷研究与量化建模主管 Robin Marshall LSEG 富时罗素全球投资研究总监 美国住房市场正面临一个转折点。随着高企的抵押贷款利率、有限的房源供应以及美联储政策的变化 重塑了住房可负担性，越来越多的美国人选择租房。本文探讨了住房自有率、租赁趋势与利率周期之 间的复杂关系——以及这对投资者和消费者意味着什么。 锁定效应： 低固定利率抵押贷款限制了住房供应，尽管利率上升，房价仍在走高。 租赁回暖： 由于购房成本远远超过租金，多户型租赁市场在2025年出现回暖。 美联储政策转折： 超过4%的抵押贷款利率限制了再融资，并减缓了美联储宽松政策对住 房市场的传统影响。 长期以来，住房自有率一直被视为"美国梦"的基石，象征着强烈的自豪感与安全感，同时也可能通过 房价升值在时间中带来财富积累。早在1990年代克林顿政府时期，这一理念就被积极推动，随着《社 区再投资法案》（《Community Reinvestment Act》）等举措的实施，到2000年住房自有率已提升 至67.7%【注1】。 另一方面，租房具有灵活性、较低的前期成本，并且没有诸如房产税和维护费等持续性支出。总体而 言， ...

澳新 银行分析师Sucden Financial在一份报告中写道，在美联储提供更明确的货币政策路径指引之前， 金价可能仍将保持在区间内波动。澳新银行研究分析师表示，避险买盘已经放缓，而近期的上涨也引发 了一些获利了结。 ...

Core Viewpoint - President Trump is expected to announce his choice for the next Federal Reserve Chair to succeed Powell early next year, continuing a months-long selection process [1] Group 1: Selection Process - Trump has narrowed down his list to one candidate, who he describes as a respected individual, but has not disclosed the name [1] - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, who is leading the selection process, has interviewed several candidates, including current Fed governors and former officials [3] - Potential candidates include Kevin Hassett, who is favored for his advocacy of low interest rates, aligning with Trump's preference [3] Group 2: Economic Context - The new Fed leader will face a strong economy with persistent inflation, which may challenge the implementation of looser monetary policies [3][4] - Economists predict that only one rate cut may occur next year, contingent on the Fed's December meeting, with inflation remaining above the target [4] - The Fed's inflation target is set at 2%, while current inflation is projected to remain around 3% [4] Group 3: Policy Implications - The selection of a new Fed Chair could test their independence, especially if they are pressured to maintain low interest rates [5] - The dynamics within the Fed's board, including members appointed by both Trump and Biden, may influence the new Chair's ability to enact policy changes [6] - There is significant resistance among regional Fed presidents to further rate cuts, with some already voting against recent reductions [6][7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - **Platinum**: Due to the warming of interest - rate cut expectations, it is recommended to pay attention to low - buying and long - selling opportunities for platinum. When the platinum - palladium ratio is at a low level, a rolling participation in the strategy of going long on platinum and short on palladium is suggested [4]. - **Palladium**: In the context of spot shortages and a favorable macro - environment, the price has strong bottom support. However, in the medium - to - long - term, it is still suppressed by its weak supply - demand fundamentals, and is expected to fluctuate widely [5]. 3. Summary by Metals Platinum - **Price**: On December 2, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 442.5 yuan/gram, with a decline of 2.57% [3]. - **Main Logic**: The platinum market was affected by the correction of gold and silver. Recently, weak US economic data and dovish remarks from Fed officials have increased the expectation of a December interest - rate cut and opened up room for rate cuts next year. In terms of supply, South Africa faces risks such as power supply and extreme weather. In terms of demand, the platinum market is in a structural expansion stage, with stable demand in the automotive catalyst field, the hydrogen energy industry as an important future growth point, and expanding jewelry and investment demand. The "interest - rate cut + soft landing" combination will further amplify the long - term price elasticity [4]. - **Outlook**: With a healthy supply - demand fundamental and positive macro - expectations, the platinum price is expected to fluctuate upward. It is recommended to pay attention to low - buying and long - selling opportunities for platinum and participate in the long - platinum and short - palladium strategy when the platinum - palladium ratio is low [4]. Palladium - **Price**: On December 2, the closing price of the palladium main contract was 374.25 yuan/gram, with a decline of 2.23% [3]. - **Main Logic**: The Russian geopolitical issue is a key factor affecting palladium supply. The US Department of Commerce is investigating the import of unforged palladium from Russia. Due to the expectation of sanctions on Russian palladium, a large amount of palladium has flowed into the US, resulting in a temporary supply shortage in other regions. In terms of demand, palladium faces significant structural pressure. Although the long - term supply - demand of palladium tends to be loose, the short - term spot shortage and the Fed's re - entry into the interest - rate cut cycle provide some support for the palladium price [5]. - **Outlook**: With spot shortages and a favorable macro - environment, the palladium price has strong bottom support. However, in the medium - to - long - term, it is still suppressed by its weak supply - demand fundamentals and is expected to fluctuate widely [5]. 4. Summary of Index Information - **Commodity Index**: On December 2, 2025, the comprehensive index was 2275.12 (-0.01%), the commodity 20 index was 2591.31 (-0.00%), and the industrial products index was 2228.52 (-0.03%). The PPI commodity index was 1360.85 (+0.06%) [33]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Index**: On December 2, 2025, the non - ferrous metals index was 2512.54, with a daily decline of 0.07%, a 5 - day increase of 1.84%, a 1 - month increase of 1.86%, and a year - to - date increase of 8.85% [33].

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has appreciated against the USD, reaching a high of 7.06440, indicating a trend of independent movement away from the USD index since September 2023 [1] Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Trends - The RMB has shown an overall appreciation trend against the USD this year, increasing by 3.59% year-to-date, while depreciating against the Euro by 8% and the GBP by 2% [1] - Since mid-September, despite a rebound in the USD, the RMB has continued to appreciate slightly against both the USD and other major currencies, reflecting a complex exchange rate dynamic amid global trade restructuring [1] Group 2: Trade and Foreign Exchange Dynamics - China's trade remains robust, with total imports and exports reaching $5.26 trillion, a growth of 7.7%, and a trade surplus of $727.7 billion, expanding by 43.8% [2] - The significant increase in bank settlement surplus, with September's surplus reaching $51 billion, the largest monthly surplus since December 2020, indicates strong foreign exchange inflows [2][3] Group 3: Influencing Factors on Market Expectations - The decline of the USD index by 8.33% this year has led to a loss of patience among companies holding USD, contributing to the large settlement surplus [3] - Market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, particularly the likelihood of interest rate cuts, have influenced the USD's depreciation and the RMB's appreciation [3][4] - The potential nomination of a new Federal Reserve chair with a focus on immediate rate cuts could further impact market expectations and the USD's value [4] Group 4: Regulatory Influence on RMB Valuation - Regulatory actions, such as the issuance of central bank bills, suggest a preference for a controlled appreciation of the RMB, reducing risks associated with bullish positions on the currency [5] - The recent RMB appreciation is attributed not only to the USD's decline but also to internal factors, although uncertainties remain regarding future export strength and external demand [5]

Group 1 - The recent pullback in the Hong Kong tech sector is influenced by discussions around the AI bubble in the US market, which has dampened investor sentiment and raised concerns about potential declines in tech stocks [3] - Changes in global liquidity expectations due to the US government shutdown and comments from Federal Reserve officials about potentially slowing monetary policy adjustments have also impacted the Hong Kong tech sector [3] - The rapid previous gains in the Hong Kong tech sector have led to high trading congestion, creating natural pullback pressure, which is seen as a normal adjustment [3] Group 2 - Despite recent pullbacks, the outlook for the Hong Kong tech sector remains positive, supported by expectations of improved liquidity from potential Federal Reserve rate cuts and stable earnings growth from leading companies in the internet and semiconductor sectors [5] - The recent success of domestic AI applications, such as the Qianwen App, which surpassed 10 million downloads in its first week, indicates a rapid transformation of AI technology into practical products and services, potentially igniting a new wave of AI applications in China [5] - The valuation of the Hong Kong tech sector is considered healthy, remaining at relatively low levels compared to historical standards, with a long-term upward trend still intact [5]

Gold - A Goldman Sachs survey conducted from November 12 to 14 among over 900 institutional investors revealed that 36% believe gold will continue to rise and surpass $5,000 by the end of next year, while 33% expect it to remain between $4,500 and $5,000. Only about 5% anticipate a drop to the $3,500 to $4,000 range [1] - Silver futures have seen a significant increase, with the cost difference between call and put options reaching the highest level since 2022, driven by supply tightness, speculative short squeezes, and rising demand [1] - Analyst Owen from Baillie Gifford believes that strong central bank purchases and gold's high liquidity and no default risk indicate substantial upside potential in the future [1] - Technically, gold has shown signs of a short-term peak since December 1, with resistance at $4,235 and support levels at $4,200 and $4,120 [1] Oil - Data indicates that eight OPEC+ member countries have increased production by a total of 2.9 million barrels per day since April, while others are still implementing a total reduction of 2 million barrels per day until the end of 2026 [2] - The U.S. is pushing for a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine, which could lead to the lifting of sanctions on Russian oil exports, raising concerns about global oil supply surplus [2] - Technically, oil prices have been fluctuating downward since October 24, with resistance around $59.50 to $60 and support at $58.50 [2] Dollar Index - U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra indicated that Trump may announce a nominee for the Federal Reserve Chair before December 25, with Kevin Hassett having a 58% probability of being nominated, which could impact future Fed monetary policy [3] - The ISM Manufacturing PMI for November recorded at 48.2, below expectations and indicating continued contraction in the manufacturing sector, while the final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was slightly higher at 52.2 [3] - Technically, the dollar has retreated from the 100.40 level, potentially forming a double top, with support expected at 96.60 [3] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has been in a correction since November 4, transitioning from a downward trend to sideways movement, with key levels to watch being support at 48,000 and resistance at 50,400 [4] Copper - Copper prices began to rise on November 28, breaking out of a consolidation phase, with potential to reach $5.38, while support is noted at $5.13 [5]

Group 1: Core Insights - The U.S. consumer market is experiencing a dichotomy during the holiday shopping season, with record online spending on Black Friday reaching $11.8 billion, a 9.1% increase year-over-year, despite a decrease in the number of items purchased due to rising prices [1] - Retail sales (excluding automobiles) on Black Friday grew by 4.1% year-over-year, surpassing last year's 3.4%, with in-store sales increasing by 1.7% and online sales rising by 10.4%, although the latter's growth rate is lower than the previous year [1] - The average selling price has risen by 7%, leading to a 1% decline in order volume and a 2% decrease in the number of items purchased per transaction, indicating that spending growth is primarily driven by price increases rather than volume [2][5] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Trends - High-income consumers are showing stronger spending power, driven by stock market wealth effects, while middle and low-income households are facing pressures from inflation, a weak job market, and high interest rates [2][5] - The use of AI-driven shopping tools has surged, with a reported 805% increase in AI-driven visits to retail websites compared to last year, as consumers increasingly rely on these tools for price comparison and discount tracking [3] - The holiday shopping season reflects a K-shaped economic recovery, where high-income consumers continue to spend on luxury goods and travel, while lower-income consumers are cutting back on discretionary spending [2][5] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Future Outlook - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of cooling, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, the highest level since October 2021, which may further suppress consumer spending [6] - Despite short-term resilience in consumer spending, long-term growth momentum may weaken due to declining purchasing power among the general population and the ongoing high interest rate environment [6][7] - The Federal Reserve faces challenges balancing inflation control and employment stability, with recent comments from officials indicating a potential for interest rate cuts, which could influence future consumer spending patterns [7][8]

Core Insights - The international gold market is experiencing significant attention, with London spot gold prices stabilizing around $4240.84 per ounce, reflecting an increase of over 300% compared to $1184.37 per ounce a decade ago [1] - The domestic market is also active, with Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T+D price at 959.46 yuan per gram, up 1.28% from the previous day [1] - The current market volatility shows notable similarities to the patterns observed in 2015 [1][3] Market Volatility Characteristics - In 2015, gold prices exhibited a "high-low" trend, starting at around 290 yuan per gram and dropping to approximately 216 yuan per gram by December [3] - The market on December 1, 2025, displayed a similar oscillation pattern, with London gold at $4215.8 per ounce and Shanghai gold T+D at 953.2 yuan per gram [3] - Technical analysis indicates a bullish trend for current gold prices, with MACD indicators signaling a potential upward movement [3][16] Monetary Policy Environment - In December 2015, the market faced pressure from anticipated interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, which led to a 9% increase in the dollar index, negatively impacting gold prices [5] - Conversely, by December 1, 2025, the market is expecting a 25 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve, with an 87.4% probability, significantly lowering the opportunity cost of holding gold [6] Changes in Market Participants - In 2015, individual investors and some institutions dominated the gold market, with central bank purchases not being a major force [8] - Since then, global central banks have significantly increased their gold purchases, totaling 4171 tons since 2015, accounting for 72% of annual global gold production [8] - The trading landscape has shifted, with the Shanghai Gold Exchange now accounting for 35% of global trading volume, reflecting the growing influence of emerging markets [8] Physical Gold Demand Differences - In late 2015, physical gold demand surged as prices hit lows, with consumers recognizing gold's value preservation [10] - By December 1, 2025, physical gold demand is more rational, with high prices suppressing buying intentions, particularly in major Asian markets [10] Investor Structure and Product Innovation - In 2015, investment options in gold were limited, primarily to physical gold and a few ETFs [12] - By 2025, the market has seen significant product innovation, with gold ETFs surpassing $200 billion, providing more accessible investment opportunities [13] Technical Analysis Comparison - In December 2015, technical indicators showed a bearish trend, with gold prices below key moving averages [16] - In contrast, by December 1, 2025, technical indicators suggest a complex but generally bullish outlook, with key resistance and support levels established [16] Market Sentiment and Expectations - In December 2015, market sentiment was predominantly negative due to anticipated rate hikes, leading to a preference for dollar assets over gold [18][19] - By December 1, 2025, market sentiment is mixed, with expectations of rate cuts boosting gold's appeal while geopolitical risks drive investors towards safe-haven assets [21]