Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, PX and PTA are in range - bound oscillations, and ethylene glycol should be treated with a short - term adjustment mindset. In the long - term, PX and PTA are relatively strong, while ethylene glycol is under pressure. For methanol, it may continue to oscillate downward in the short - term and has the potential to rebound in the long - term if signals are positive. Plastic may continue to oscillate in a low - level range in the short - term and show a weak trend in the long - term [30][57][59] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyester Sector Macro and Crude Oil News - The Fed's monetary policy meeting minutes show that most officials oppose further rate cuts in December. The non - release of the October non - farm payroll report weakens the basis for rate cuts, pushing the US dollar index up and pressuring crude oil prices. The 9 - month non - farm payroll data shows a strong job market, increasing internal differences in the Fed. The US is approaching a "major breakthrough" in a framework agreement to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict. India's Reliance Industries stops importing Russian crude. US crude production rises, and the Trump administration plans to expand offshore oil and gas exploration. US crude inventories decline, while gasoline and distillate inventories increase [5][6] Futures and Spot Prices - WTI crude oil futures price drops slightly by 0.20%, while PX, TA, and PF futures prices decline slightly, and EG and PR futures prices fall more significantly. Spot prices of PX, PTA, and polyester staple fiber increase slightly, while ethylene glycol and polyester bottle chip prices decline [8] Supply and Demand Analysis - **PX**: Domestic supply decreases slightly this week, and Asian supply also drops. Next week, supply is expected to be stable, and processing fees are supported at the bottom [11] - **PTA**: Supply decreases this week due to more device overhauls. Next week, supply will still decrease [15] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply decreases slightly this week. New device launches and existing device overhauls co - exist, and the supply reduction is limited [16] - **Polyester End**: The weekly average operating rate increases slightly by 0.07 percentage points [17] - **Terminal**: Orders remain sluggish, and the operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms continues to decline [27] Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: PX and PTA are in range - bound oscillations, and ethylene glycol is adjusted. Long - term: PX and PTA are relatively strong, and ethylene glycol is under pressure. Key points to watch include the Russia - Ukraine situation, macro - market sentiment, and device operation [29][30] Methanol and Plastic Price Trends - Methanol and plastic futures and spot prices mostly decline. Methanol MA2601 futures price drops by 2.48%, and L2601 plastic futures price falls by 4.02% [32] Methanol - **Supply**: As of November 20, the operating rate is 88.77%, up 1.82 percentage points, and production is 201.42 tons, up 2.09%. Next week, more devices are expected to resume [39] - **Demand**: MTO operating load rebounds slightly, and the overall demand warms up slightly but has limited support [42] - **Inventory**: As of November 19, port inventory is 147.93 tons, down 4.16%, and inland inventory is 35.87 tons, down 2.86%. Inventory is decreasing, but it is still at a high level [45] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term: Methanol may continue to oscillate downward. Long - term: It may rebound if the port inventory inflection point occurs [57] Plastic - **Supply**: As of November 20, the operating rate is 82.71%, down 0.42 percentage points, and production is 67.03 tons, down 0.51%. Next week, the loss of production capacity is expected to be greater [48] - **Demand**: The downstream demand is differentiated and weak. Future demand may decline [51] - **Inventory**: As of November 19, production enterprise inventory is 50.33 tons, down 4.89%, and two - oil enterprise inventory is 42.4 tons, down 5.57%. Inventory is decreasing but is still at a high level [55] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term: Plastic may continue to oscillate in a low - level range. Long - term: It may show a weak trend [59]

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年11月21日15时44分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡回调，沪金主力收跌1.40%，沪银主力收跌3.70%。①核心逻辑，短期避险方面，中美会谈利空兑现，地缘异动风 险仍存；美国就业走弱通胀温和，联储官员偏鹰，降息预期回调。②避险属性方面，中美经贸磋商成果共识公布。俄乌、中东等地 缘异动风险仍存。③货币属性方面，美国9月就业增长超预期，但失业率升至4.4%。美联储官员警示金融稳定风险，12月是否降息 仍存分歧。美联储公布的10月政策会议纪要显示，美联储决策层在上月降息时存在严重分歧。许多官员认为，在2025年剩余时间 内维持利率不变"可能是合适之举"。更多美联储决策者暗示对12月降息持谨慎态度。美国政府结束停摆，市场等待更多经济数 据指引。目前市场预期美联储12月降息25基点概率跌至30%附近。美元指数和美债收益率下行遇阻偏强；④商品属性方面，CRB 商品指数震荡偏弱，人民币贬值利多内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期震荡偏弱，中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。 | 策略：稳健者观望，激进者高抛低吸。建议做好仓位管理，严格止损止盈。 | | --- | | 表 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The iron ore futures price fluctuated strongly due to a decrease in arrivals and port inventories. The Fed's December rate cut expectation weakened, and the iron ore supply pressure was alleviated by a decline in arrivals in recent weeks. The iron ore production remained above 2.35 million tons, but the current weakness in the coking coal and steel markets might affect the ore price. The I2601 contract should focus on the resistance around 800, with short - term trading and attention to operation rhythm and risk control [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Price**: As of the close on November 21, the iron ore main contract futures price was 785.5 (+13) yuan/ton, and the Macfayden powder at Qingdao Port was 844 (+6) yuan/dry ton [6]. - **Shipment**: The global iron ore shipment volume increased by 447,400 tons week - on - week. From November 10 to November 16, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 35.164 million tons, and the Australia and Brazil iron ore shipment volume was 29.087 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.601 million tons [5][6]. - **Arrival**: The arrival volume at 47 ports decreased by 399,400 tons. From November 10 to November 16, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 23.699 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 399,400 tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 22.689 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 472,300 tons; and the arrival volume at six northern ports was 10.413 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 484,500 tons [6]. - **Demand**: The hot metal production decreased by 600 tons. The daily average hot metal production was 2.3628 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 600 tons and a year - on - year increase of 480 tons [6]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased by 77,990 tons. As of November 21, 2025, the imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China was 157.3485 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 77,990 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 194,530 tons. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 90.0123 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 74,780 tons [6]. - **Profit Margin**: The steel mill profit margin was 37.66%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.30 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 16.89 percentage points [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Overseas, the Fed had a large divergence on whether to continue cutting interest rates in December. Domestically, the third - round fifth - batch of central environmental protection inspections were launched, and the central bank kept the loan prime rates unchanged. In terms of supply and demand, the Australia and Brazil iron ore shipments increased, arrivals decreased, and domestic port inventories declined. The steel mill blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and hot metal production were slightly adjusted downwards. Technically, the I2601 contract of iron ore rushed up and consolidated, with the daily K - line standing above multiple moving averages and a bullish arrangement of the moving average combination. The MACD indicator showed that DIFF and DEA were rising upwards but had not effectively broken through the 0 axis [8]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: This week, the I2601 contract fluctuated strongly. It was stronger than the I2605 contract, with a spread of 29.5 yuan/ton on the 21st, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 yuan/ton [14]. - **Warehouse Receipts and Net Long Positions**: On November 21, the Dalian Commodity Exchange's iron ore warehouse receipts were 800, a week - on - week decrease of 100. The net long position of the top 20 in the ore futures contract was 527, an increase of 27,890 from the previous week [22]. - **Spot Price**: On November 21, the Macfayden powder ore with 61% iron content at Qingdao Port was reported at 844 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 6 yuan/dry ton. This week, the iron ore spot price was weaker than the futures price, with a basis of 59 yuan/ton on the 21st, a week - on - week decrease of 7 yuan/ton [28]. 3. Industry Situation - **Arrival Volume**: From November 10 to November 16, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume increased, while the arrival volume at 45 ports in China decreased [32]. - **Inventory**: The total imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports decreased by 77,990 tons week - on - week, and the daily average port clearance volume increased by 3110 tons. The steel mill's imported iron ore inventory decreased by 74,780 tons week - on - week, the daily consumption decreased by 950 tons, and the inventory consumption ratio decreased by 0.16 days [35]. - **Inventory Availability Days**: As of November 20, the average inventory availability days of imported iron ore in domestic large - and medium - sized steel mills was 20 days, a week - on - week decrease of 1 day. On November 20, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2170, a week - on - week increase of 145 [40]. - **Import Volume and Capacity Utilization**: In October, China's iron ore imports decreased by 5.017 million tons month - on - month, a decrease of 4.3%. From January to October, the cumulative imports increased by 0.7% year - on - year. As of November 14, the capacity utilization rate of 266 domestic mines increased by 0.38% week - on - week, the daily average fine powder output increased by 240 tons, and the inventory decreased by 2410 tons [43]. - **Domestic Iron Ore Output**: In October 2025, China's iron ore raw ore output decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, and the cumulative output from January to October decreased by 3.2% year - on - year. In September, the iron fine powder output of 433 domestic iron mines decreased by 35,600 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 1.5% [47]. 4. Downstream Situation - **Crude Steel Output**: In October 2025, China's crude steel output was 72 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.1%. From January to October, the cumulative crude steel output was 817.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9% [50]. - **Steel Exports and Imports**: In October 2025, China's steel exports were 9.782 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.5%; imports were 503,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%. From January to October, cumulative exports increased by 6.6% year - on - year, and cumulative imports decreased by 11.9% year - on - year [50]. - **Blast Furnace Operating Rate and Hot Metal Production**: On November 21, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 82.19%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.62 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.26 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 88.58%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.22 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.05 percentage points. The daily average hot metal production was 2.3628 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 600 tons and a year - on - year increase of 480 tons [53]. 5. Options Market - Due to the support of the decline in iron ore inventory, the ore price was strong, but the overall black sector was weak, especially the decline in steel mill profits might squeeze the ore price. Consider buying out - of - the - money put options when iron ore rebounds [56].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The steel market is intertwined with both bullish and bearish factors, and market investment demand has weakened. The RB2601 contract may continue to trade within a range. Traders are advised to engage in short - term trading, paying attention to rhythm and risk control. Considering the rebound, it is advisable to buy put options [9][60] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Price and Spread**: As of the close on November 21, the futures price of the main rebar contract was 3057 yuan/ton (+4), and the spot price of Zhongtian rebar in Hangzhou was 3250 yuan/ton (+10) [7] - **Production**: Rebar production increased to 207.96 million tons (+7.96), year - on - year decrease of 25.86 million tons [7] - **Demand**: Apparent demand rebounded to 230.79 million tons (+14.42), year - on - year decrease of 3.41 million tons [7] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of rebar continued to decline to 553.34 million tons (-22.83), year - on - year increase of 108.23 million tons [7] - **Profit Margin**: The profit - making rate of steel mills was 37.66%, a decrease of 1.30 percentage points from last week and 16.89 percentage points from the same period last year [7] - **Market Outlook**: Overseas, there is a large divergence among Fed policymakers on whether to continue cutting interest rates in December. Domestically, the third - round fifth - batch of central environmental protection inspections has been launched, and the central bank has maintained the loan prime rates unchanged. Rebar production has stopped falling and rebounded, with capacity utilization rising to 45.59%, and EAF steel operating rate continuing to increase. Downstream demand is better than expected, apparent demand has rebounded, and inventory has continued to decline. Iron ore prices are oscillating strongly, while coal and coke prices are weakening. Technically, the RB2601 contract is trading in a range of 3000 - 3100 [9] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: This week, the RB2601 contract first rose and then fell. The price of the RB2601 contract was stronger than that of the RB2605 contract, and the spread on the 21st was - 41 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 11 yuan/ton [15] - **Warehouse Receipts and Net Positions**: On November 21, the warehouse receipt volume of rebar on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 64,820 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 47,107 tons. The net short position of the top 20 holders of rebar futures contracts was 82,833 lots, an increase of 7,798 lots from the previous week [22] - **Spot Price and Basis**: On November 21, the spot quotation of Hangzhou's third - grade 20mm HRB400 rebar was 3250 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton; the national average price was 3268 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 28 yuan/ton. This week, the spot price of rebar was stronger than the futures price, and the basis on the 21st was 193 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6 yuan/ton [26] 3.3 Upstream Market - **Raw Material Prices**: On November 21, the price of 61% Australian Macfayden iron ore powder at Qingdao Port was 844 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 6 yuan/dry ton; the spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1760 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton [31] - **Iron Ore Arrivals and Inventory**: From November 10 - 16, 2025, the total arrivals at 47 Chinese ports were 23.699 billion tons, a decrease of 3.994 billion tons from the previous period; the total arrivals at 45 Chinese ports were 22.689 billion tons, a decrease of 4.723 billion tons; the total arrivals at six northern ports were 10.413 billion tons, a decrease of 4.845 billion tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 157.3485 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 77.99 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.4339 billion tons, an increase of 31.1 million tons [36] - **Coking Plant Situation**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 71.10%, unchanged from the previous week. The daily coke output was 497,500 tons, a decrease of 39,000 tons. Coke inventory was 434,400 tons, an increase of 72,900 tons. The total coking coal inventory was 8.8922 billion tons, a decrease of 335,600 tons. The available days of coking coal were 13.4 days, a decrease of 0.4 days [40] 3.4 Industry Situation - **Supply - Side - Crude Steel**: In October 2025, China's crude steel production was 72 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.1%. From January to October, the cumulative crude steel production was 817.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9% [44] - **Supply - Side - Rebar Production**: On November 21, the blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 82.19%, a decrease of 0.62 percentage points from last week and an increase of 0.26 percentage points from the same period last year; the blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 88.58%, a decrease of 0.22 percentage points from last week and an increase of 0.05 percentage points from the same period last year; the daily average hot - metal output was 2.3628 billion tons, a decrease of 600,000 tons from last week and an increase of 480,000 tons from the same period last year. On November 20, the weekly rebar production of 139 building - materials production enterprises was 2.0796 billion tons, an increase of 796,000 tons from last week and a decrease of 2.586 billion tons from the same period last year [47] - **Supply - Side - EAF Steel**: On November 20, the weekly rebar capacity utilization rate of 139 building - materials production enterprises was 45.59%, an increase of 1.74% from last week and a decrease of 5.67% from the same period last year. The average operating rate of 90 independent EAF steel mills was 69.13%, a month - on - month increase of 1 percentage point and a year - on - year decrease of 0.65 percentage points [50] - **Supply - Side - Rebar Inventory**: On November 20, the in - plant inventory of rebar of 137 building - materials production enterprises was 1.5332 billion tons, a decrease of 710,000 tons from last week and an increase of 460,000 tons from the same period last year. The inventory of building steel in 35 major cities was 4.0002 billion tons, a decrease of 1.573 billion tons from last week and an increase of 10.363 billion tons from the same period last year. The total rebar inventory was 5.5334 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.283 billion tons and a year - on - year increase of 10.823 billion tons [54] - **Demand - Side**: From January to October 2025, national real - estate development investment was 7.3563 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%. The floor area under construction of real - estate development enterprises was 6.52939 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%; the newly started floor area was 490.61 million square meters, a decrease of 19.8%; the completed floor area was 348.61 million square meters, a decrease of 16.9%. Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) decreased by 0.1% year - on - year. Among them, pipeline - transportation investment increased by 13.8%, water - transportation investment increased by 9.4%, and railway - transportation investment increased by 3.0% [57] 3.5 Options Market - Due to the rebound in both rebar production and demand, poor performance of raw materials, weakened cost support, and short - term pressure, it is advisable to consider buying put options on the rebound [60]

来源：滚动播报 9月非农就业报告显示失业率意外上升，带动美元延续走弱态势。丹斯克银行分析师在报告中指出，此 次失业率上升源于劳动力供给增加，缓解了劳动力市场的紧张状况，从而提振了市场对美联储降息的预 期，推动美债收益率和美元小幅回落。然而，分析师强调，这一数据尚不足以构成美联储明确降息的强 有力信号，趋势难以为继。该行仍预计美联储12月将按兵不动，目前市场对降息的定价概率约为32%。 ...

数据延迟发布，美联储官员需继续观察后续经济指标变化以作出决策。据CME"美联储观察"显示美联 储12月维持利率不变的概率为60.4%，降息25个基点的概率为39.6%。 一、美联储货币政策前景分歧 11月19日公布的美联储10月会议纪要显示，政策制定者在降息问题上存在分歧，许多与会者支持降低联 邦基金利率目标区间，但同时也指出部分支持降息的成员对维持利率不变同样可接受，多数官员认为随 着时间的推移会进一步放松政策，多位官员预计12月降息将是合适的，但也有几位官员表示不一定会在 12月份降息。 美联储主席鲍威尔此前明确表示，12月会议降息并非板上钉钉，此次会议纪要也显示决策者对于12月是 否降息尚未达成一致意见。美联储副主席杰斐逊表示，在进一步降息时应谨慎行事，以免削弱其抗通胀 努力，达拉斯联储主席洛根明确反对12月降息，堪萨斯城联储主席施密德称过早宽松可能强化通胀黏 性，当前利率水平对经济恰到好处；而米兰继续呼吁以50个基点幅度加速降息，强调经济下行压力需更 强力政策对冲。市场也对12月降息预期起伏不定，金银本周处于震荡行情且维持较大波动。 二、就业数据或继续疲弱 11月20日美国劳工统计局公布了迟到的9月非 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices, emphasizing the importance of understanding supply and demand dynamics over short-term predictions influenced by geopolitical events and monetary policy changes [3][5][19]. Group 1: Short-term Price Predictions - Short-term predictions of gold prices are challenging and often unreliable due to various factors such as interest rate expectations, geopolitical stability, and profit-taking by investors [5][7]. - The correlation between interest rate expectations and gold prices has weakened, making it difficult for investors to rely on traditional analysis methods [5][8]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Traditional pricing logic for gold has become less effective, necessitating a focus on supply and demand factors [9][19]. - Gold supply has remained stable, with annual supply levels between 4500 tons and 5000 tons since 2015, primarily driven by mining and recycling [13][14]. - Demand for gold is influenced significantly by investment needs and central bank purchases, which can fluctuate by hundreds of tons annually [14][15]. Group 3: Central Bank Purchases and Investment Demand - Central bank purchases of gold have surged due to geopolitical tensions, reflecting concerns over the reliability of the US dollar [15][16]. - Investment demand for gold has increased dramatically, with a year-on-year growth of 87% in the first three quarters of the year, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards gold as a viable asset [16][17]. - The article suggests that the growing investment demand could drive future increases in gold prices, as more investors allocate funds to gold [17][19].

Core Insights - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 119,000 in September, more than double the expectations, but revisions for July and August showed a combined decrease of 33,000 [1] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021 [1] - Initial jobless claims fell by 8,000 to 220,000, while continuing claims reached a four-year high [1] Impact on Federal Reserve Policy - The report reinforces the Federal Reserve's stance of maintaining current interest rates, as the data does not strongly indicate a need for rate hikes or cuts [5] - Market expectations for a rate cut in December are low, with the first potential cut now anticipated in Q1 2025 [5] Financial Market Reactions - Positive signals include strong job growth and a decrease in initial jobless claims, indicating robust hiring demand [7] - Negative signals arise from downward revisions of previous months' data and an increase in the unemployment rate, suggesting challenges in the labor market [7] - The stock market may experience volatility, with strong job growth supporting corporate earnings but high rates pressuring growth and tech stocks [8] - Bond yields are expected to remain elevated due to strong non-farm data, but concerns over economic slowdown may temper upward pressure [8] - The dollar is likely to strengthen as high rate expectations attract international capital [8] Economic Implications - Job growth supports consumer spending, which is crucial for the U.S. economy to avoid deep recession [9] - The report suggests a "Goldilocks" scenario for the labor market, avoiding overheating and severe cooling [9] - The dual nature of the data indicates a complex economic environment, with both positive and negative signals [9] Global Economic Spillover Effects - High U.S. interest rates may maintain elevated global financing costs, impacting emerging markets [10] - A stable U.S. job market and consumer demand could support imports, benefiting export-oriented economies [10]

由于市值龙头股英伟达公司财报未能持续提振市场人气，纽约股市三大股指20日由涨转跌，收盘时三大 股指均明显走低，遭遇少见的大幅反转行情。 截至当天收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数比前一交易日下跌386.51点，收于45752.26点，跌幅为0.84%；标 准普尔500种股票指数下跌103.40点，收于6538.76点，跌幅为1.56%；纳斯达克综合指数下跌486.18点， 收于22078.05点，跌幅为2.15%。 标普500指数11大板块10跌1涨。科技板块和非必需消费品板块分别以2.66%和1.73%跌幅领跌，仅必需 消费品板块上涨1.11%。 英伟达19日盘后发布的财报显示，在截至10月26日的本财年第三季度，该公司营业收入和净利润均显著 增长，利润率改善。英伟达还对本财年第四季度业绩给出乐观预期。财报公布后，英伟达股价在19日盘 后交易中出现超5%的涨幅。不过，20日英伟达股价在涨至每股196美元后回落，收盘时下跌超3%。 分析人士指出，美国多家科技巨头围绕AI推出总规模达数万亿美元的资本开支，引发投资者质疑，市 场对AI领域出现泡沫的担忧刺激相关股票明显回调。 与此同时，因美国联邦政府"停摆"而延迟发布的9月 ...

Group 1 - COMEX gold inventory remained unchanged at 1149.87 tons as of November 20, 2025 [1][2] - On November 20, 2025, COMEX gold closed at $4075.70 per ounce, reflecting a slight increase of 0.02% [1] - The daily price range for COMEX gold on November 20, 2025, was between a high of $4109.60 and a low of $4034.00 per ounce [1] Group 2 - ING's chief international economist, James Knightley, noted that due to the recent hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve and the lack of official economic data before the December monetary policy meeting, the market anticipates that the Fed will not lower interest rates until early 2026 [2]