Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **Chinese economy**, **monetary policy**, and the **impact of US-China trade relations** on the market. Core Points and Arguments 1. **US-China Trade Relations**: The uncertainty in US-China trade relations continues to affect domestic monetary policy and market sentiment. Although there has been a short-term easing, the long-term trend of decoupling remains unchanged, necessitating attention to potential policy tools from the Trump administration [1][2][15][17]. 2. **Manufacturing Policy**: China emphasizes the importance of manufacturing as a core policy, with incremental policy layouts focused on this sector. Despite a recovery in the first quarter, internal stability is lacking, and effective demand remains weak, indicating a need for continued fiscal support [1][4][30]. 3. **Monetary Policy Trends**: The central bank's monetary policy is showing a trend towards fiscal characteristics, with a potential tightening approach. Structural monetary policies are increasingly reflecting fiscal traits, and there may be a window for increased fiscal funding this year [1][7][8]. 4. **Market Interest Rates**: Current market interest rates have adjusted more significantly than policy rates, indicating an upward risk in interest rates. From early 2024 to now, policy rates have adjusted by 45 basis points, while market rates have adjusted by approximately 80 basis points [8][12]. 5. **Stock Market Opportunities**: Changes in fiscal direction present opportunities in the stock market, particularly in technology and consumer sectors. There is a trend of equity replacing debt in financing, with a focus on leading technology firms and inclusive consumption sectors [9][10][29]. 6. **Debt Market Outlook**: The outlook for the debt market in June suggests a potential rebound if the current liquidity conditions persist. Historical trends indicate that interest rates generally decline in June, and the market should be monitored for data changes around mid-June [16][20]. 7. **Fiscal Policy and Economic Impact**: The current macroeconomic policy is cautious and conservative, primarily aimed at stabilizing the economy. The easing of export-related pressures due to improved US-China relations may lead to slight short-term economic improvements [30][34]. 8. **RMB Internationalization**: The internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) is a long-term strategy for China, with potential new policies expected to be announced at the upcoming Lujiazui Financial Forum. These policies aim to facilitate cross-border settlement and enhance the RMB's global use [32][33][34][35]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Government Debt and Market Rates**: Government debt levels are expected to peak in June, but the central bank's supportive measures are likely to mitigate significant negative impacts on interest rates [25]. 2. **Investment Strategies**: The recommendation is to adopt a bullish strategy in the short term, focusing on opportunities that may arise in June, particularly as the market adjusts to the end of the export peak [26][27]. 3. **Sector Focus**: Key sectors to watch include new consumption and pharmaceuticals, large state-owned enterprises undergoing mergers and acquisitions, and traditional core assets represented by the Shanghai Composite Index [29]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call records, highlighting the ongoing dynamics in the Chinese economy and the implications of US-China trade relations on various sectors and policies.

出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 董必政 头图 | AI制图 5月19日，美国参议院通过《GENIUS法案》，为稳定币立法。紧接着，5月21日，香港立法会通过 《稳定币条例草案》。 仅仅48小时，围绕着稳定币的立法，或者说合法化提上日程，一场没有硝烟的战争已经悄然拉开了 序幕。 此外，二战后，美国成为世界上最强大的经济体。美国作为全球最大的消费国之一，也要向全球"输 送"美元，这就需要使用美元进行结算，满足全球对美元的需求——其他国家通过出口赚取美元后， 往往又将美元回流美国购买美债、股票等资产，形成"美元循环"。 稳定币，可以理解为现实法定货币在虚拟世界的映射。 与现实世界类似，大国正试图通过构建稳定币为主导的虚拟货币体系，将其演变为类似布雷顿森林体 系式的存在。 这背后，大国欲争夺的是货币全球扩张的话语权。 所以，稳定币到底是什么？ 一、影子"法币" 要理解稳定币究竟为何之前，我们先要再重申一下美元霸权的建立过程。 美元之所以逐渐能够成为全球通用货币在于：刚开始，美元与价值稳定的黄金挂钩，各国货币与美元 挂钩，形成了布雷顿森林体系；随后，美元虽与黄金脱钩，但率先占据了消费、贸易的话语权，捆绑 了石油，巩固了 ...

头图 | AI制图 5月19日，美国参议院通过《GENIUS法案》，为稳定币立法。紧接着，5月21日，香港立法会通过《稳定币条例草案》。 仅仅48小时，围绕着稳定币的立法，或者说合法化提上日程，一场没有硝烟的战争已经悄然拉开了序幕。 稳定币，可以理解为现实法定货币在虚拟世界的映射。 与现实世界类似，大国正试图通过构建稳定币为主导的虚拟货币体系，将其演变为类似布雷顿森林体系式的存在。 出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 董必政 这背后，大国欲争夺的是货币全球扩张的话语权。 所以，稳定币到底是什么？ 一、影子"法币" 要理解稳定币究竟为何之前，我们先要再重申一下美元霸权的建立过程。 美元之所以逐渐能够成为全球通用货币在于：刚开始，美元与价值稳定的黄金挂钩，各国货币与美元挂钩，形成了布雷顿森林体系；随后，美元虽与黄金脱 钩，但率先占据了消费、贸易的话语权，捆绑了石油，巩固了美元霸权地位。 20世纪70年代，美国与沙特阿拉伯等主要石油出口国达成协议，石油交易以美元计价和结算。 此外，二战后，美国成为世界上最强大的经济体。美国作为全球最大的消费国之一，也要向全球"输送"美元，这就需要使用美元进行结算，满足全球对美元 的需求 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the need to clarify misconceptions about stablecoins and to recognize their functional attributes and strategic value, particularly in the context of developing offshore and onshore RMB stablecoins [1][2]. Group 1: Market Growth and Regulatory Landscape - Since the second half of 2023, the stablecoin market has entered a rapid growth phase, with a current market size exceeding $230 billion and over 250 million active accounts [1]. - Various countries, including the EU, Japan, Singapore, the UAE, and Hong Kong, have introduced regulations to support stablecoin innovation, with more than ten major countries planning related legislative initiatives by 2025 [1]. - The recent passage of the "GENIUS Act" in the U.S. Senate significantly increases the likelihood of further development in the stablecoin market [1]. Group 2: Misconceptions about Stablecoins - Misconception 1: Stablecoins are equated with general cryptocurrencies, overlooking their unique characteristics and governance mechanisms [3][4]. - Misconception 2: The belief that stablecoins lack stability is challenged by the fact that most stablecoins are backed by fiat currencies or assets, with the highest stability observed in fiat-backed stablecoins [5][6]. - Misconception 3: The notion that stablecoins conflict with central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) is addressed by highlighting their complementary roles in different transaction scenarios [9][10]. Group 3: Regulatory Developments and Transparency - Regulatory frameworks for stablecoin issuers are being established globally, focusing on aspects such as licensing, operational management, and reserve asset investment [8]. - Major stablecoin issuers are improving transparency and compliance, with USDC being a notable example of regular independent audits and reserve disclosures [7][8]. - The "GENIUS Act" in the U.S. sets specific capital, liquidity, and risk management requirements for stablecoin issuers, enhancing the stability of the market [8]. Group 4: Impact on Monetary Sovereignty and Internationalization - Concerns about stablecoins undermining domestic monetary sovereignty can be mitigated through regulatory measures that restrict their domestic use and manage reserve assets [13][14]. - The development of RMB stablecoins is positioned as a new engine for promoting the internationalization of the RMB, complementing existing cross-border payment systems [15][16]. - The potential of stablecoins to enhance the efficiency of cross-border payments is highlighted, with significant advantages over traditional banking systems [10][16]. Group 5: Addressing Illegal Financial Activities - The perception that stablecoins exacerbate illegal financial activities is countered by advancements in anti-money laundering (AML) technologies and regulatory frameworks [19][20]. - Blockchain technology can be utilized for monitoring stablecoin transactions, enabling regulatory bodies to track the flow of funds effectively [20][21]. - Global AML regulations are evolving to include stablecoins and cryptocurrencies, with specific compliance requirements being established in various jurisdictions [21].

Core Viewpoint - The event focused on the importance of exchange rate risk management for Chinese enterprises in the context of evolving global economic dynamics, emphasizing the need for effective hedging strategies to mitigate risks [1][4][7]. Group 1: Event Overview - The event titled "Exchange Rate Risk Management Seminar under New Circumstances" was held on May 30 at the Bund, attended by nearly 30 representatives from various industries including manufacturing, trade, and technology [1]. - Key speakers included officials from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange and senior executives from Shanghai Bank and the Foreign Exchange Trading Center [1][4]. Group 2: Key Presentations - Shanghai Bank's Business Director highlighted the significance of adopting a "neutral exchange rate risk" approach and shared the bank's achievements in supporting enterprises' hedging needs [4]. - The General Manager of the Foreign Exchange Trading Center discussed recent accomplishments in the interbank foreign exchange market and future initiatives to enhance services for corporate clients [5]. - The Director of the International Balance of Payments Department emphasized the principles and strategies for managing exchange rate risks, particularly in the context of dual currency fluctuations [7]. Group 3: Expert Insights - An invited expert from CITIC Bank analyzed the impact of Trump's tariff policies on international order and suggested that the renminbi would demonstrate resilience amid a shift towards diversified global asset allocation [9]. - The product manager from the Foreign Exchange Trading Center presented the functionalities and applications of the corporate foreign exchange trading service platform [11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The event facilitated in-depth discussions on the mechanisms of exchange rate fluctuations affecting cross-border operations and the selection of hedging tools in complex market environments [13]. - The future development of exchange rate hedging services for Chinese enterprises is expected to be robust, supported by the People's Bank of China, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and the Foreign Exchange Trading Center [13].

4月18日，在柬埔寨首都金边，中国国家主席习近平与柬埔寨参议院主席洪森并肩同行（照片由柬埔寨政府提供，Kyodo） 在20世纪的日本，虽然政府倡导日元国际化，但企业在贸易支付等场景中仍持续依赖美元。中 国从中找出了日元国际化的"失败原因"。因此，将推"一带一路"与"数字丝绸之路"结合起来统筹提 出…… 4月中旬，柬埔寨首都金边，总理洪玛奈（Hun Manet）与时隔7年半来访的中国国家主席习近平会面。 双方确认将在柬埔寨境内扩大人民币支付范围。为柬埔寨的银行加入中国自主开发的国际银行间支付系 统"CIPS"开辟了道路。 "除了美国主导的Swift（环球银行间金融通信协会）之外，还需要另一种选择"，柬埔寨国家银行（央 行）行长谢丝蕾如此阐述加入CIPS的意义。 人民币的全球份额位居第二 中国于2015年启动CIPS，以亚洲为中心，加入该系统的银行已达到1667家。过去三年里增加了3成。 Swift汇总的数据显示，作为支付货币，人民币的全球份额达到4％。这一数字仅次于美元、欧元、英 镑，高于日元。仅从贸易支付来看，人民币占比7％，虽然与占81％的美元存在显著差距，但已位居全 球第二。 在国际社会，人民币的存在感正 ...

美国对EDA和航发技术的禁售看似凶狠，实则暴露了底牌已尽的窘境。中国罕见地保持沉默，却在关 键时刻亮出为C919量身定制的新型航发，推力达11吨，直接打脸美国的封锁。这种沉稳的反击背后， 是中国制造业转型成功的底气。 特朗普的关税战让美国海关收入暴涨，每月多收数百亿美元，但企业利润却暴跌千亿，一季度GDP负增 长。中国制造业PMI虽然短暂跌破50，但整体经济仍保持5%以上的增速，高端制造业投资活跃。美国 的打压反而加速了中国科技自主的步伐。 中国近期动作频频：与拉美国家举办北京峰会，同东盟、海合会举行首届峰会，筹备中非和中亚峰会， 地缘影响力快速扩张。更关键的是两记重拳——四月抛售超百亿美债导致收益率飙升，香港议会火速通 过全球首个与法币1:1挂钩的稳定币法案。这直接打断了美国通过稳定币重构美元体系的算盘。 美国越打越急，中国越打越稳。双方最后的对决很可能避开热战，在金融战场一决高下。中国正在积蓄 力量，等待时机对美元霸权发起总攻。香港稳定币的突破性立法，就是这场货币战争的第一声炮响。 美元霸权的根基正在动摇。美国滥用金融制裁，冻结他国外汇储备，让全世界看清了美元体系的政治风 险。俄乌冲突后，多国加速去美元化 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the historical context of currency hegemony, indicating that no currency can remain stable indefinitely, as it reflects a nation's international reputation and economic strength [2][10][17] - The report discusses the significant role of China's manufacturing sector and its initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative, which are expected to enhance the stability of the Renminbi and promote its internationalization [2][10][17] - The report notes that the total market capitalization of stablecoins reached $250.8 billion, with USDT and USDC dominating the market, accounting for 61% and 25% respectively [10][17] Group 2 - The report indicates that the bond market is likely to benefit from a strong external demand while internal demand remains weak, suggesting a favorable environment for bonds in June and July [3][11] - It mentions that the central bank's bond-buying pace may align with the supply rhythm, with expectations of increased bond purchases in the second half of the year [11][12] - The report emphasizes that the A-share market has built a "wall" against macroeconomic disturbances, with capital market policies playing a crucial role in stabilizing the market [21][22] Group 3 - The report on Huangshan Tourism emphasizes its unique resource endowment and a clear growth path, driven by a diversified business model that includes scenic areas, hotels, and cultural tourism [25][27] - It outlines the company's strategic focus on integrating culture and technology to enhance tourism experiences and operational efficiency [27] - The report projects a target market capitalization of 10.7 billion yuan for Huangshan Tourism, reflecting a potential upside of 28% based on comparable company valuations [27]

Financial Weekly 每周金融评论 目录 CONTENTS 热点聚焦 FOCUS ◎ 张国清:构建平台经济良好生态,做强国内大循环 MEETINGS ◎ 中国人民银行与印度尼西亚银行签署《促进双边本币结算合作 框架的谅解备忘录》 重大政策 POLICIES ◎ 中办、国办印发《关于完善中国特色现代企业制度的意见》 重大事件 EVENTS ◎ 欧盟:准备采取针对美国的反制措施 中共中央政治局委员、国务院副总理张国清5月27日至28日在上海市调研促进平台经济健康发展和市场监管有关工作。他强调， 平台经济在促进创新创业、做强国内大循环等方面发挥着重要作用。平台企业要把流量资源用于支持高质量产品和服务，与平台 内商户、新就业形态劳动者、消费者等相关方实现互利共赢，共同推进平台经济健康发展。 《清华金融评论》观察 市场监管工作直接关系人民群众切身利益和经营主体权益，必须持续提升治理能力，更好服务经济社会高质量发展。要深化市场 监管领域改革，加快清理妨碍统一市场和公平竞争的各种规定和做法，强化新经济、新业态监管制度供给，完善市场准入退出机 制，激发经营主体活力。要加强监管执法能力建设，加大涉企违规收费整治力度 ...

5月31日，摩根大通发布研究报告指出，本周围绕美国关税的不确定性进一步加剧，美国法院根据《国 际紧急经济权力法案》（IEEPA）裁定特朗普政府的关税措施违宪。尽管表面上看，这预示着美国对中 国（及其他亚洲经济体）下调关税的可能性上升，但白宫仍拥有大量替代权力（如第 122、301、338 条款）以实施关税。因此，摩根大通认为关税争端不太可能就此结束，目前仍不能完全排除美国关税维 持现有水平甚至进一步上调的风险（摩根大通仍预期美国关税将上升）。 外汇市场借此机会进一步平仓美元多头，美元指数本周从局部低点反弹。美元 / 离岸人民币汇率随之温 和走高，但与地区 peers 相比总体保持稳定，使得中国外汇交易中心（CFETS）人民币贸易加权指数 （TWI）跟随美元指数小幅走强（图 1）。人民币汇率的相对稳定也得益于区间波动的中间价设定 —— 中国央行将每日参考汇率维持在 7.18-7.19 的窄幅区间内，而摩根大通的模型预测显示合理区间应为 7.17-7.21。中国央行通过有管理的中间价设定，允许人民币汇率大致跟踪美元走势，但波动性比其他 货币更收敛（图 2）。 图 1：美元 / 离岸人民币跟随美元走高，但人民币本周 ...