12月24日，昨日周二我们认为，临近圣诞假期，市场流动性减少，叠加降息预期与避险买盘，共同推动 黄金价格上涨，短期技术面也显示，黄金存在继续冲高的可能，因此操作上建议大家，下方支撑关注 4400美元整数位置，上方压力关注4450美元附近的突破情况，若金价再创新高，关注4500美元整数位 置。 12月24日，昨日周二我们认为，临近圣诞假期，市场流动性减少，叠加降息预期与避险买盘，共同推动 黄金价格上涨，短期技术面也显示，黄金存在继续冲高的可能，因此操作上建议大家，下方支撑关注 4400美元整数位置，上方压力关注4450美元附近的突破情况，若金价再创新高，关注4500美元整数位 置。 从之后的走势看，昨日周二亚盘开盘后，黄金直接站稳4450美元继续上涨，至4497美元遇阻，此后亚欧 盘金价多次向上试探，均未能突破4500美元整数位置附近压制，美盘开盘后，黄金再次涨至4497美元遇 阻后，走势短线跳水，刷新日低至4430美元，不过金价很快企稳反弹，继续向上试探，临近收盘时刷新 历史新高至4499美元。总体来看，黄金在突破周一高点4449美元后，向上试探4500美元整数位置遇阻， 基本符合我们预期。 Wolfinan ...

黑海地区供应风险与美国产区干旱天气形成共振，为全球小麦市场注入强劲上涨动力。 受黑海地区供应风险升级与美国产区天气不确定性的双重驱动，芝加哥小麦期货价格周二再度走高，已连续 五个交易日上涨，正迈向自4月以来持续时间最长的反弹行情。 据媒体报道，俄乌局势持续，已导致黑海敖德萨地区的能源及港口设施遭到破坏，进一步加剧了市场对作为 全球主要出口地的该地区粮食和食用油供应中断的担忧。 黑海供应链持续承压、美国产区面临持续干热 推动本轮价格上涨的主要因素，是市场对黑海地区出口中断的担忧再度升温。紧张局势的加剧不仅导致基础 设施受损，更直接冲击了农产品的出口物流。 乌克兰谷物协会称，针对关键基础设施的持续攻击以及电力短缺问题，导致铁路和港口无法满负荷运转，这 对粮食外运能力构成了实质性制约。 在供应风险之外，作为另一主要产区的美国，其气候条件也在恶化。美国农业部在周二的报告中强调，干燥 的天气伴随着创纪录的温暖气温，正覆盖中部和南部平原。 气象预报机构Vaisala在报告中指出，预计这种干燥状况本周仍将持续，维持相关种植区的水分短缺状态。这 一天气展望为市场看涨情绪提供了额外的基本面支撑。 分析师认为，地缘政治风险和天气 ...

基本面： 周三（12月24日）亚盘时段，现货黄金继续突破并再次刷新历史高位至4525美元附近后守住强势，目前暂交投于4508美元附近。在2025年的年末，全球贵金 属市场迎来了一波史无前例的强势上涨行情，黄金、白银价格持续刷新纪录，现货黄金升破4500关口，现货白银一举突破每盎司70美元的关键关口，现货铂 金也屡创历史新高，现货钯金刷新三年高点。这股涨势不仅受到了地缘政治紧张局势、美联储降息预期以及美元走软等多重因素的推动，还叠加了工业需求 强劲和央行买盘活跃的影响。 地缘局势方面，美国周二对联合国表示，将实施"最大限度"的制裁，以剥夺委内瑞拉总统马杜罗的资源，同时俄罗斯警告其他拉美国家可能成为下一个目 标。美国总统特朗普周一表示，可能保留或出售最近扣押的委内瑞拉石油，并扣留相关船只。他对马杜罗发出警告，称这是其"最后一次机会"，并强调目标 是迫使马杜罗下台。据华尔街日报报道，美国本周向加勒比海地区调遣大量特种作战飞机和运输机，包括至少10架CV-22鱼鹰倾转旋翼机和C-17运输机，这 为潜在军事行动提供了更多选项。 在乌克兰方面，俄罗斯导弹和无人机袭击造成至少三名乌克兰人死亡，包括一名儿童，并引发大范围断电 ...

王爷说财经讯：历史第一次！ 12月23日，全球金融市场迎来历史性一刻——现货黄金价格首次冲破4500美元/盎司关口，较年初涨幅已超70%！ 这不仅是黄金市场从未有过的极值，更让全球投资者集体沸腾。你没看错，这个被视为"财富避风港"的硬通货，又一次刷新了人类金融史的纪录。 但疑问也随之而来：为什么黄金会在这个时间点突然爆发？横盘震荡两个月后突然突破，背后是不是有大资金在推动？这波上涨到底是机会还是陷阱？普 通人该不该跟风入场？别急，咱们一步步把这件事捋清楚。 尤其是12月22日以来，金价像是踩了油门，从4400美元关口一路飙升，只用一天就突破了4500美元的关键点位，这样的涨势让不少老股民都直呼"看不 懂"。 世界黄金协会的数据显示，今年全球央行购金热情依旧高涨，有望连续第四年维持1000吨以上的净增持规模，而2024年全球央行净增持黄金就达到1045 吨，相当于当年全球黄金产量的五分之一还多。 01、开挂！现货黄金价格首次突破每盎司4500美元！ 先说说这波行情的基本背景。 其实今年黄金早就开启了"开挂模式"，全年已经创下超过50次历史新高，从年初不足2600美元/盎司的价格，一路磕磕绊绊涨到现在的4500美 ...

本文来自微信公众号：华尔街见闻，作者：龙玥，原文标题：《贵金属都在狂涨！黄金破4500，铂金2300，白银72，齐创历史新高》 贵金属还在加速狂飙。 在地缘政治风险影响、全球供应持续短缺以及强劲投资需求的共同推动下，黄金、白银和铂金价格再一次冲上历史新高。 现货黄金价格有史以来首次突破每盎司4500美元，今年以来已累计上涨超过三分之二，有望创下自1979年以来的最佳年度表现。 现货白银同样涨势如虹，突破70美元关口后，涨势仍在强势延续。 铂金价格也飙升至每盎司2300美元上方的历史最高点。这一金属价格已连续10个交易日上涨，创下2017年以来最长连涨纪录，今年以来的累计 涨幅更是超过150%，有望创下彭博自1987年有数据记录以来的最佳年度表现。 而这轮波澜壮阔的涨势正迅速传导至全球市场。国内商品期货市场开盘后，铂期货主力合约触及涨停，沪银、钯金期货涨幅均超过6%。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 日増仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 辑2606 | 657.65 | 43.00 | 7.00% | +591 | | 沪银2602 | 17357 | ...

国内黄金饰品价格对比显示，多家黄金珠宝品牌公布的境内足金首饰价格较昨日均有上调，老凤祥报价1406元/克，老庙黄金报价1402元/克，周生生报价 1411元/克，周大福报价1410元/克，六福珠宝报价1401元/克。 金价大幅上涨，在信用货币体系重构下，各国央行扫货黄金，ETF资金跑步进场，以及地缘政治风险扰动、美联储开启降息周期等成主要推手。 目前，黄金正迈向1979年以来最佳年度表现。目前，国际主流机构对2026年黄金价格的预测普遍"站上4000美元"。 另外，黄金类ETF也成为ETF资金流入的主力品种。Wind数据显示，截至12月22日收盘，年内黄金类ETF净流入额超千亿元，占同期ETF总流入额的比例 约十分之一，成为ETF资金流入的主力品种 紫金财经12月24日消息 经过短暂回调后，全球黄金价格再创新高。12月24日，现货黄金首次涨破4500美元/盎司关口，现报4520美元/盎司，年内累计劲升 71%，盘中最高4530.80美元/盎司，再创历史新高。COMEX白银盘中最高升至70.155美元/盎司，年内涨幅高达138%，领跑贵金属市场。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical tensions around Venezuela and Ukraine have caused a pulse - like "risk premium" in the oil market, but the substantial global supply tightening due to Venezuela's supply disruption is expected to be limited. Geopolitical premiums tend to provide short - term rebound momentum for oil prices [1]. - The strong GDP data in the US third - quarter initially caused a decline in precious metals, but geopolitical risks have strengthened the upward trend of precious metals, and attention should be paid to capital movements [2]. - Most commodities are in a state of complex supply - demand and market sentiment, with many showing range - bound oscillations. Some commodities are affected by geopolitical factors, while others are influenced by seasonal demand, cost changes, and policy expectations. Summaries by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical tensions drive price rebounds, but supply tightening is limited. US shale oil production remains high despite reduced drilling and fracturing activities [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil demand lacks upward drivers, and the trading focus is on supply disruptions. High - sulfur fuel oil is supported by geopolitical factors in the short - term but faces a supply - surplus situation in the medium - term. Low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be weak due to refinery device changes [19]. - **Asphalt**: Weekly shipments are at a low level, and inventories are accumulating. Geopolitical factors may provide short - term cost - side support, but the price will eventually be pressured by supply - demand looseness [20]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold has reached a new high, and geopolitical risks have strengthened the upward trend of precious metals. Attention should be paid to capital movements during the Christmas holiday [2]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The price has reached a new high. In the first quarter of next year, the market is pricing in the tight supply at the mine end in advance. There may be short - term adjustments, but the long - position demand for the first - quarter contract remains strong [3]. - **Aluminum**: The fundamentals are not prominent, and it mainly follows the upward trend of other metals. Long - positions can be held with the 40 - day moving average as support [4]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It has difficulty following the upward trend at high levels, and the price difference with Shanghai aluminum remains around 1,000 yuan [5]. - **Alumina**: The production capacity is at a historical high, the supply - surplus pattern is hard to change, and the inventory is rising [6]. - **Zinc**: The price is in a rebound trend, and it is expected to oscillate between 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [7]. - **Lead**: The price is expected to oscillate between 16,700 - 17,300 yuan/ton, and inventory pressure needs to be monitored [8]. - **Tin**: The price has declined. The supply is expected to turn around in the first quarter of 2026, and high prices are suppressing consumption. Attention should be paid to the risk at high levels [9]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is oscillating strongly due to the expected production cuts at the end of the month, but the demand is under pressure, and the upward space is limited [10]. - **Ferroalloys** - **Manganese Silicon**: The price is oscillating. Manganese ore prices have increased slightly, and it is recommended to buy on dips [16]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price is rising. Supply has decreased significantly, and demand remains resilient. It is recommended to buy on dips [17]. Building Materials - **Steel Products** - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The price has declined at night. Rebar demand has recovered slightly, and inventory is decreasing. Hot - rolled coil supply and demand are both decreasing, and inventory reduction is accelerating. The overall market is in range - bound oscillations [12]. - **Iron Ore**: The price has declined. Supply is expected to be strong, and demand is weak. The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term [13]. - **Coke**: The price is oscillating strongly. The third - round price cut has been implemented, and the price is likely to oscillate [14]. - **Coking Coal**: The price is oscillating widely. Production has decreased slightly, and the price is likely to oscillate after repairing the discount [15]. - **Glass**: The price is oscillating. Inventory is increasing, and demand is insufficient. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [30]. Chemicals - **Polyolefins** - **Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene**: The supply is relatively abundant, and demand is weak. The market is cautious, and the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to improve in the short - term [25]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is oscillating strongly, with supply pressure easing and demand remaining low. Caustic soda is also oscillating strongly, with high supply pressure and limited demand growth [26]. - **Aromatics** - **Pure Benzene**: The price is oscillating weakly. Supply and demand pressure may ease, and it is recommended to consider long - short spreads in the medium - term [23]. - **Styrene**: Supply and demand are expected to increase, but supply may increase more than demand. The support from pure benzene is limited [24]. - **Others** - **PX & PTA**: PX prices have risen due to supply reduction expectations. PTA supply may increase, and downstream demand is expected to decline [27]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price has declined significantly. Supply is expected to increase in the long - term, and the price is under pressure [28]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle Chip**: Raw material prices are squeezing profits. Short - fiber supply - demand is relatively good in the long - term, and bottle - chip has over - capacity problems [29]. - **Urea**: The market is affected by export quota rumors, and the supply - surplus pattern continues. The price is oscillating in a range [21]. - **Methanol**: The short - term price may oscillate weakly, and there is an upward driver in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the 5 - 9 spread [22]. Agricultural Products - **Oilseeds and Oils** - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The开机率 of domestic oil mills has increased, and soybean meal inventory is expected to rise. The trading logic focuses on US soybean exports and South American weather [33]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Palm oil is rebounding, and soybean oil has declined after rising. Attention should be paid to fundamental changes [34]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic oil mill is not operating, and imports have been announced. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [35]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The price is stable and strong due to the premium in the auction [36]. - **Grains** - **Corn**: The price is slowly declining. Supply - demand mismatch has eased, and the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [37]. - **Egg**: The futures market shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern. It is recommended to consider the 2 - 4 or 2 - 5 spread strategy [39]. - **Cotton**: The price is rising. US cotton sales data is good, and domestic cotton inventory is relatively low. It is recommended to buy on dips [40]. - **Sugar**: International supply is sufficient, and domestic production progress and expectations vary by region. Attention should be paid to subsequent production [41]. - **Apple**: The price is oscillating. Demand is in the off - season, and the market is bearish [42]. - **Timber**: The price is at a low level. Supply is decreasing, demand in the off - season is okay, and inventory is low. It is recommended to wait and see [43]. - **Pulp**: The price is oscillating. Port inventory is decreasing, and the price is supported. It is recommended to wait and see or trade short - term [44]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: A - share indexes rose, and the risk appetite of equity assets has been supported. Attention should be paid to the rotation and repair opportunities of low - level sectors [45]. - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury futures rose. The long - term interest rate has risen significantly, and the yield curve is likely to steepen [46]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The spot market is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality. Near - month contracts are expected to oscillate around the spot price [18].

2025年颠覆了以往熟悉的收益格局。加密货币陷入了长时间的下跌和盘整阶段，最终沦为表现最差的资产之一。与此同时，传统 资产却意外地成为年度最大赢家。白银和黄金的收益异常出色，而美国股指也稳步保持上涨势头。这种分化暴露出一个关键的行 业问题：2025年，加密货币失去了其作为防御性资产甚至另类资产的地位，重新回到了高风险资产的行列。 贵金属、美股"争夺"资金，加密货币2025年"虎头蛇尾" 2025年，贵金属表现最为强劲，加剧了与加密货币争夺笔资金的竞争——这些资金在不确定时期寻求避险。白银价格全年上涨约 140%，黄金价格上涨约70%，均创下历史新高。这波上涨行情具有结构性：对宽松货币政策和地缘政治风险的预期，促使投资者 转向那些具有简单保值功能的资产。 在普遍的不确定性下，投资者越来越倾向于选择那些历史悠久、监管清晰且流动性高的投资工具。可及性也发挥了作用：黄金和 白银可以通过交易所交易产品(包括ETF)轻松购买，而在数字领域，与实物资产挂钩的代币化产品——RWA解决方案——则仍在发 展。这降低了部分投资者的准入门槛，并支撑了对贵金属的需求。 在供应有限的背景下，工业需求(尤其是太阳能和电动汽车的需求)进一步 ...

Wind数据显示，截至15:00，伦敦金现盘中冲高至4420.07美元/盎司，突破10月20日4381.48美元/盎司的 前期高点，刷新历史纪录；伦敦银现更是首度站上69美元/盎司关口，盘中最高触及69.45美元/盎司，同 步改写历史峰值。国际期货市场亦同步跟涨，COMEX黄金攀升至4443.5美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货 冲高至69.525美元/盎司，均再创历史新高。 铂金、钯金两大品种也同样展现出亮眼的上行表现。截至15:00，现货铂金盘中冲高至2074.1美元/盎 司，日内涨幅超4%，为2008年以来首次突破2000美元/盎司整数关口，年内累计涨幅已超126%；现货钯 金日内最高触及1796.5美元/盎司，日内涨幅同样超4%，延续强劲上涨势头。 贵金属市场的火热行情迅速传导至A股市场，国内贵金属指数板块同步走强。个股方面，晓程科技、湖 南白银涨超7%，贵研铂业涨超6%，西部黄金、盛达资源涨幅均超5%，山东黄金、紫金矿业、中金黄 金、四川黄金、赤峰黄金、招金黄金等贵金属企业个股亦纷纷跟涨。 对于本轮贵金属的全面上涨，苏商银行特约研究员武泽伟指出，这是市场对全球宏观经济、货币政策与 地缘风险等多重核心驱动 ...

Group 1 - The article provides an authoritative interpretation of the Central Economic Work Conference, highlighting discussions among top experts on current economic hotspots, policy directions, growth paths, and reform priorities for China's economic development from 2025 to 2026 [2][3] - Key speakers include prominent figures such as Liu Fengliang, Zou Jingxian, Wang Yiming, Mao Zhenhua, Shen Jianguang, Zhang Xiaojing, and Li Daokui, who are all influential in the field of macroeconomics [3] Group 2 - The 2026 macroeconomic outlook indicates that monetary policies in the US, Europe, and Japan will continue to move towards neutral interest rates, with geopolitical risks gradually receding, leading to lower global economic uncertainty compared to 2025 [5][6] - The discussion emphasizes that the US will focus on balancing policy, technology, and Federal Reserve actions, while Europe is expected to experience moderate recovery and Japan will face significant challenges [5][6] Group 3 - The article discusses strategies for global asset allocation in 2026, focusing on selecting high-cost performance assets across various markets, including US stocks, US bonds, A-shares, and Hong Kong stocks [8] - It highlights the importance of balancing risk and return while identifying structural opportunities in sectors such as AI, new energy, and pharmaceuticals [8] Group 4 - The textile and apparel industry strategy for 2026 is outlined, focusing on global consumption trends, export recovery, and the selection of stable growth leaders amid differentiated domestic demand [11] - Key insights include understanding demand elasticity and performance recovery in the textile and apparel sector [11] Group 5 - The article presents an investment map for the pharmaceutical sector on the Beijing Stock Exchange, emphasizing the high potential of "specialized, refined, distinctive, and innovative" companies [13] - It suggests a dual approach focusing on "innovation-led" and "steady growth" strategies, with a particular interest in innovative drugs, high-end medical devices, and robust generic drugs [13] - Notably, 42.86% of the companies in the pharmaceutical sector are classified as national-level "little giants," indicating a strong presence of specialized firms [13]